Diplomacy & Crisis News

« Il faut se préparer au pire », a expliqué M. Bernard Kouchner, « et le pire, c'est la guerre ». Cette déclaration du ministre des affaires étrangères à propos de l'Iran a suscité bien des critiques et mis en lumière les inflexions de la nouvelle diplomatie française (lire « Sarkozy »). Elle a surtout (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), France, Iran, Proche-Orient, Relations internationales - 2007/10

Kay Bailey Hutchison will have to clean up whatever mess the president leaves behind in Brussels.

L'eldorado universitaire américain n'a cessé de fasciner les élites mondiales, aveuglées par les établissements richement dotés, les campus rutilants et les bibliothèques gorgées d'ouvrages. Même si pendant les décennies de l'après-guerre une certaine démocratisation de l'enseignement supérieur est (...) / États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Inégalités, Recherche, Université - 2007/09

AI will change everything. Workers must adapt — or else.

Filmmaker Claude Lanzmann, dead at 92, showed the world the Holocaust through eyewitnesses.

Mexico’s President Elect, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, as his best animated self.

 

After decades of one party rule under the PRI, two standard six year Presidential terms under the PAN and a brisk return to the PRI to remind voters why they ejected them in the first place, Mexicans came out en masse to vote for the ex-mayor of Mexico City, Manuel Lopez Obrador. As the ex-mayor of Mexico City, Mexico’s new President led from the left of the political spectrum as is often the case in many large cities, but won as an independent, apart from Mexico’s main established parties. He challenged the regional and national governments to become a well known quantity running one of the largest cities in the world, and is said to have done a pretty decent job with Mexico City’s transit system during his time as mayor. He is Mexico’s new populist President, and as predicted at the end of populist driven elections, the comparisons to their northern neighbours have begun.

While comparisons to populist leaders lead many to conclude that all populist electoral victories may reflect a US experience, the popularity of Obrador comes with the experience of him as a well-established political voice in Mexican politics. He is well known as a left leaning political voice, but also may likely have to tack back to the centre on several policy files unlike his Canadian counterpart, but remain in the realm of socially oriented policies, unlike his French counterpart. Lopez Obrador’s policies seem to reflect a regional and social division of how they are applied and who they need to serve. He is well aware that raising the cost of business along the border regions and on international firms operating in Mexico will damage their competitiveness as US tax rates have significantly declined. This is not the case in Canada where taxes seem to give birth to more taxes despite the competitive reality of a lower taxes across the border. While this type of policy may seem right of centre, it addresses economic challenges to Mexico is a realistic fashion.

The victory of President elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, often referred to as AMLO, seemed to soak up the political will of those that were tired of years of problems that never seemed to be successfully challenged by established political parties. Like Macron in France, AMLO ran apart from the establishment, also running apart from any record that may be tied to them. Challenging corruption and security issues was paramount, as it always is in Mexico since the PAN turned up the heat on security issues during their time in office and the metaphorical kitchen caught fire, mind you it was a PRI built kitchen. While Macron swiftly moved to the centre in his policy approaches post-election, Lopez Obrador may have to have a creative response to the current NAFTA negotiations if he wishes to maintain his socially oriented policies. Negotiating with an aggressive American side and a Canadian side that are blind to most issues facing Mexico will be a challenge as local politics in the US and Canada are pushing NAFTA and Mexico into dangerous territory. While the North American economy is strong, working out the best deal for Mexico while maintaining a socially balanced agreement that serves the Mexican economy and the unique state of Mexico’s population compared to their NAFTA partners will be an enormous challenge.

Corruption is often why many well established parties lose the electorate, but once elected, the problems that plagued or were even created by the last governments lay on the shoulders of the current government. The characteristic one term, six year Presidential term for Mexican Presidents give a lot of time and opportunity to challenge the status quo, but it is a great challenge that anyone who sees themselves as valuing their country can support if the end of corruption is made into a possibility. The problem with corruption however is that once it is entrenched, it is almost impossible to eliminate. This will be the greatest challenge to AMLO and has been to all government in modern Mexican history.

The post Mexico’s New Six Year Presidential Experiment appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

>> Retrouvez l’article dont est extraite cette citation : « L’Inde peut-elle devenir une grande puissance ? », écrit par Nicolas Blarel dans le numéro d’été 2018 de Politique étrangère (n° 2/2018). < <

Beijing is angry over the U.S. trade war, but Trump’s own mishandling of North Korea talks are the main problem.

En 1967, le Royaume-Uni, puissance dominante dans la région du Golfe depuis près d'un siècle, annonce le départ de toutes ses troupes basées à l'est du canal de Suez. En 1971, le retrait est achevé, et plusieurs émirats accèdent à l'indépendance. Mais la stabilité de cette riche région pétrolière reste au (...) / Arabie saoudite, Asie, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Irak, Iran, Proche-Orient, Royaume-Uni, Armée, Colonialisme, Conflit, Histoire, Pétrole, Koweït - Proche-Orient

Le royaume de Belgique, qui, depuis sa création en 1830, avait tant bien que mal réussi à contenir dans une structure unitaire les tensions entre francophones et Flamands, vient de se transformer en Etat fédéral. Avec les trois régions autonomes ainsi créées — Flandre, Wallonie et Bruxelles — l'unité (...) / Belgique, État, Identité culturelle, Langue, Monarchie, Fédéralisme - 1993/06

La France est sans doute le pays du monde où le système de soutien à la création littéraire est le plus puissant et le plus complet : prix innombrables, foires ou salons du livre répartis sur toute l'année et dans tous les départements, nombreux périodiques spécialisés, bourses de création et résidences (...) / France, Culture, Industrie culturelle, Littérature, Livre - 2007/01 Puissances et impuissances

The Summit

Not too long ago, President Trump was promising “fire and fury”, while Kim Jong-Un was assuring a “super-mighty pre-emptive strike”. On June 12, 2018 as cameras flashed and hands shook, both leaders significantly changed their tune with flattery and promises. The Singapore Summit was indeed a historic moment, with North Korea’s promises of denuclearization. However, this seemingly good cheer and cooperative attitude prompts the skeptic to consider what North Korea actually wants and what concessions they will actually make.

This is hardly the first time that North Korea has promised to disarm. In 1985, North Korea signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but by 2003, the nation had withdrawn from their agreement. Since then, North Korea has flip flopped between agreeing to dismantle nuclear weapons, all the while continuing to test and develop nuclear weapons. Even with the recent treaty, it is necessary to look at why Kim Jong-Un signed the agreement in the first place.

Kim Jong-Un’s motive in light of recent negotiations is vital to explore. Typically, with two nations at odds with each other, when something appears too good to be true, it is. Kim Jong-Un’s propaganda over the years has shown missile launches and extreme nationalism. Threats leveraged at the U.S., even up until a few months ago do not indicate the actions of a man who will actually give up the leverage he has. It is natural to conclude that there is a reason for Kim Jong-Un’s seeming cooperation with denuclearization and it becomes important for the interests of national security understand why and how.

It’s Economics, Baby

China’s influence over North Korea has been striking and should not be overlooked. Indeed, it is almost a surprise that China came on board with the rest of the international community in imposing said sanctions. China has had relations with North Korea and maintained their support of stability within the Korean Peninsula. China has even gone as far as to promise to return any escapees who make it across the border back to North Korea. Additionally, there have been reports indicating that over 90% of North Korea’s food and energy supply come from China. China has been working both sides and it is interesting to say the least that they would begin applying pressure to North Korea now.

China’s recent display of economic hegemony and restricting trade of fuel and food vital to North Korea’s survival seems to have largely influenced North Korea’s recent compliance. Combined with condemnation from the international community, threats from the United States, and Kim Jong-Un’s own personal ego have also contributed to the talks with the U.S. and South Korea. Whether or not Kim Jong-Un will follow through on his end of the bargain, although doubtful, is yet to be determined. The agreement both parties signed only provided an outline of goals without a strategy of implementation.

Each player in this game has a clear stake. South Korea wants a united Korea and stability in the region. China wants power and probably nuclear weapons of their own. The United States wants North Korea to denuclearize. Lastly, North Korea wants a lift to the economic sanctions applied to the, and the power that comes with being a world player.

It is this last point that is striking. For a country that has been closed off to most of the world to now emerge and aim for peace is quite interesting. The timing is indicative of the result of economic pressure coming largely from China. Until recently, China seemed to turn a blind eye to the humanitarian crimes of North Korea. This past year, however, China has condemned the testing of nuclear weapons and applied sanctions. China’s massive influence should not be ignored.

Although the Kims have previously indicated that their regime’s survival is based on the development of nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-Un has wisely decided to take a separate approach through diplomatic measures. Yet even with the seemingly positive outcomes of the summit, sanctions will not be lifted until weapons are denuclearized.

The Humanitarian Factor

Under the best of circumstances, Kin Jong-Un will put into action his promise to denuclearize. Economic sanctions will be lifted and North Korea will continue importing gas and exporting coal. Jobs will increase in North Korea and the country may begin to prosper. Perhaps the hotel President Trump believes could be developed will come to fruition and the world will see an increase in tourism in the once restricted nation.

It would be so easy for the world to turn a blind eye to the injustices inflicted upon Kim Jong-Un’s own people. President Trump has stated that economic sanctions will not be lifted until Chairman Kim denuclearizes. Should there also not be some written emphasis on the requirement for North Korea to end their humanitarian crimes? Gulags, reeducation camps, travel restrictions and intolerance of religious groups are just a few examples of oppression that the world knows takes place in North Korea. Just as striking is the mass brainwashing that has taken place. North Korea is a country without choice and without opportunities. Kim Jong-Un may not have established the system, but he has maintained it.

Kim Jong-Un became Supreme Leader of the “Democratic” People’s Republic of Korea in 2011 upon the death of his father Kim Jong-Il. As such, he cannot plead ignorance to the crimes under his regime. With the county’s total control, nothing is done without Kim Jong-Un knowing about it. Surveillance, testimony from survivors and escapees, and credible intelligence all bear testament to these crimes.

It may not be in the immediate best interests of world leaders for Kim Jong Un to be held accountable for the crimes against his people. Despite promises and a signed document, Kim Jong-Un does not have any organization or person to enforce his part of the bargain. If it is the goal of the international community to see North Korea disarm, they will not begin to criticize how he rules his people. This does not mean that light should not be shed on the fact that the international community may be failing the interests of the people of North Korea. A way to start looking out for the interests of the people is to consider what the international community cando.

There is no easy method to address the human rights abuses in North Korea within the immediate future. If admittance is the first step to recovery, North Korea has a long way to go as the Kim Jong-Un dictatorship does not even recognize the human rights abuses taking place. China, again, may have the leverage to play a significant role in the humanitarian cause. Escapees from North Korea into China are known to be returned. China should consider these people as refugees rather than prisoners and find a way to provide asylum. International and human rights organizations could work with bordering countries like China and South Korea in order to provide the aid and resources necessary enable survivor’s recovery and prosperity.

The international community now has the opportunity to begin discussions on the human rights abuses that have taken place within North Korea. Part of the economic discussions should without a doubt include the shutting down of the concentrations camps within North Korea and allowing asylum to survivors. The process of reuniting blood relations between the two Koreas is also a necessary measure of good will that should be emphasized and not forgotten.

Now that North Korea has emerged promising peace and an effort for stability in the region, perhaps negotiations may begin surrounding humanitarian issues. It is not the sole duty of the United States to condemn the action of the North Korean regime, but the responsibility of the international community as a whole. The immediate concern is whether or not Kim Jong-Un will live up to his word and begin to denuclearize. Even if he does follow through on his promise, it will be a long while before Kim Jong-Un is recognized as a legitimate world player.

The post Is North Korea Actually Disarming? appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n° 2/2018). Héloïse-Anne Heuls propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Myriam Benraad, Jihad : des origines religieuses à l’idéologie. Idées reçues sur une notion controversée (Le Cavalier bleu, 2018, 216 pages).

Briser les clichés, creuser les complexités et défaire les stéréotypes qui s’accumulent autour de la notion de djihad, telle est l’ambition du dernier ouvrage de Myriam Benraad, professeur de science politique à l’université de Leyde aux Pays-Bas. Cette spécialiste du monde arabe n’en est pas à son coup d’essai. Auteur déjà reconnue, forte d’une production riche sur un sujet qu’elle décortique depuis plusieurs années, elle s’évertue à redonner un sens à un terme entré dans le langage commun depuis les attentats du 11 septembre 2001, et dévoyé de son sens initial parce que trop souvent banalisé.

La démonstration de Myriam Benraad passe par la déconstruction minutieuse de vingt idées reçues. L’auteur y rappelle les différences fondamentales existant entre les notions théologiques et idéologiques, entre les considérations religieuses et l’ensemble des militances politiques. À coups d’arguments historiques, sémantiques, politiques et sociologiques, elle rappelle que causes et expressions du djihadisme sont multiples.

Dans son dernier chapitre, l’auteur revient sur la notion de déradicalisation, qui inonde la sphère publique française depuis les attaques menées à Toulouse et Montauban par Mohammed Merah, en mars 2012. Elle rappelle en outre que de nombreux programmes ont été mis en place dans différents pays, de l’Arabie Saoudite à l’Angleterre, en passant par les Pays-Bas et l’Égypte, afin d’endiguer les velléités terroristes. Si les études scientifiques sur le sujet restent floues et éparses, la lutte contre la radicalisation est un impératif premier pour de nombreux États, dont l’objectif est de réduire l’engagement de ceux qui défendent leurs arguments dans la violence.

La conclusion de l’ouvrage est sans appel : tenter de trouver des lieux communs et définir le profil d’un « djihadiste type » relève de l’impensable, quand on sait par ailleurs que l’abondance de la littérature sur le sujet empêche tout lieu commun. Si le djihad ne peut se réduire à une notion guerrière et violente, l’emploi de ce concept, emprunté à la littérature religieuse, devrait faire l’objet de précautions particulières pour ne pas susciter la controverse. D’une notion religieuse plutôt mineure, les idéologues du djihad comme Abdallah Azzam, Sayyid Qutb, ou Oussama ben Laden, sont parvenus à argumenter une doctrine autoritaire.

Enfin, comme l’écrit si justement Myriam Benraad, la complexité des sens empruntés par le djihadisme est difficilement adaptable aux enjeux médiatiques, qui obligent à la vulgarisation. C’est donc un appel aux précautions et à la connaissance que lance, dans son dernier ouvrage, la spécialiste du monde arabe, poussant ceux qui usent de concepts à ne pas les dénaturer de leurs substrats matriciels.

Héloïse-Anne Heuls

S’abonner à Politique étrangère

The debate over the effects of artificial intelligence has been dominated by two themes. One is the fear of a singularity, an event in which an AI exceeds human intelligence and escapes human control, with possibly disastrous consequences. The other is the worry that a new industrial revolution will allow machines to disrupt and replace humans in every—or almost every—area of society, from transport to the military to healthcare.

There is also a third way in which AI promises to reshape the world. By allowing governments to monitor, understand, and control their citizens far more closely than ever before, AI will offer authoritarian countries a plausible alternative to liberal democracy, the first since the end of the Cold War. That will spark renewed international competition between social systems.

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Un discours hante l'Occident : il n'y a plus d'idéologies. De profonds penseurs le proclament : dans nos démocraties avancées, le citoyen est devenu imperméable aux conditionnements. Fini les morales culpabilisantes et les dogmes d'antan. Fini l'idéologie petite-bourgeoise naguère dénoncée par (...) / Idées, Médias, Mutation, Publicité - 1996/08

Longtemps divisé, le syndicalisme international s'est réunifié en créant, le 3 novembre 2006, la Confédération syndicale internationale (CSI). Celle-ci rassemble la Confédération mondiale du travail (CMT) et la Confédération internationale des syndicats libres (CISL) ainsi que des centrales sans (...) / France, Syndicalisme - 2007/01 Puissances et impuissances

En dépit des déplacements, des mutations idéologiques qui se sont opérés dans le public (et qui ne sont pas dus uniquement à l'hégémonie télévisuelle), en dépit aussi de la stratégie marchande mise en oeuvre pour s'adapter à ces changements (voir le discours « éclairé » d'un Daniel Toscan du Plantier , un (...) / Cinéma, Économie, Industrie culturelle, Fiction - 1979/02

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n° 2/2018). Vincent Piolet propose une analyse de l’ouvrage dirigé par Michel Hunault, La lutte contre la corruption, le blanchiment, la fraude fiscale. L’exigence d’éthique dans les mouvements financiers (Presses de Sciences Po, 2017, 232 pages).

Ce livre est assez inégal selon les contributions, et selon que l’on souhaite approfondir ses connaissances sur la corruption, le blanchiment ou la fraude fiscale. En bon avocat, Michel Hunault fait le point dans son introduction sur les différents processus législatifs qui se sont attaqués à ces différents maux.

Le premier chapitre est consacré à l’histoire de l’association Transparency International France, et rédigé par son ancien président Daniel Lebègue. L’histoire de cette association, pour intéressante qu’elle soit, est assez éloignée d’une étude de la corruption et des moyens de lutte au cas par cas. Le deuxième chapitre, rédigé par Jean-Louis Fort, ancien président du Groupe d’action financière internationale (GAFI), présente la même faiblesse, celle de raconter l’histoire d’une organisation – le GAFI – et non pas celle de l’objet contre laquelle elle lutte. Michael Meister, membre du Bundestag, met enfin en perspective le sujet, en relevant les limites des organisations internationales ou de la législation, et en soulignant certains aspects techniques importants, comme le problème de l’identification des bénéficiaires ultimes des trusts – un combat politique pour l’instant perdu face aux États anglo-saxons. Le chapitre suivant, rédigé par Éric Robert, fonctionnaire de l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE), nous décrit les coulisses et les problématiques de l’échange d’informations dans la lutte contre la fraude fiscale. Il en souligne les limites, et les lacunes. Gérard Rameix, ancien président de l’Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), se lance dans un long chapitre consacré à cette institution et à ses pairs nationaux et internationaux, et on peine à voir le rapport avec le sujet du livre. Jean-Baptiste Carpentier, ancien dirigeant de TRACFIN (cellule française de lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux et le financement du terrorisme), se consacre, comme Daniel Lebègue et Jean-Louis Fort avant lui, à l’histoire d’une organisation, sans perspective critique de son fonctionnement ni de ses limites. Le magistrat François Badie se lance dans une étude de la législation avant, heureusement, d’en revenir au sujet de son chapitre, à savoir la corruption dans les entreprises. Il est ainsi intéressant de suivre les cas de grands groupes français (Alstom, Total, Technip, Alcatel) face à la législation américaine du Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), cas d’école d’extraterritorialité législative. Enfin, le livre se clôt sur un chapitre de Philippe Poiget, expert en assurance, tout à fait dispensable, qui, tout au long de son texte, explique que le secteur de l’assurance n’est pas concerné par ces maux, et que les diligences sont à voir du côté du milieu bancaire. Il eût été intéressant d’évoquer le cas des sociétés captives d’assurance aux îles Caïmans, véritable fléau de la fraude fiscale par exemple.

L’ouvrage présente donc de nombreuses limites, et déçoit le lecteur quant à la promesse du titre. La réédition de l’excellent La Richesse cachée des nations de Gabriel Zucman sur la fraude fiscale, ou du livre d’Éric Vernier Techniques de blanchiment et moyens de lutte permettront au lecteur de trouver une réelle mise en perspective et des solutions originales à ces fléaux.

Vincent Piolet

S’abonner à Politique étrangère

A broader North Korean peace process would actually do more to ease progress on denuclearization, as well as multiple other fronts.

Since South Sudan became the world's youngest country in 2011, 2.6 million of the 3.4 million babies have been born in war, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) revealed Saturday.