Agrégateur de flux

By Nicola Nones (Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto) and Melle Scholten (Department of Public Administration at the University of Twente)

The Eurozone crisis and the subsequent implementation of austerity measures in various member states of the union was in many ways a watershed moment for contemporary populism. But how does austerity translate into changes in public opinion? Scholars of positive political economy typically point to the household finances of people as relevant explanations for their political preferences. Reasoning from this perspective, we argue austerity measures are likely to have negatively impacted public opinion on the euro specifically, which limited governments’ ability to respond in tailored ways to the economic crisis.

Austerity, which can be implemented as either budget cuts or tax increases, places great economic pressure on citizens. They might have to pay a larger proportion of their income to help close deficits, or they might lose public goods provisions that they value. Most people would like to avoid either scenario. Since austerity might have been avoided if a national currency had been devalued in international currency markets – something that is impossible within the Eurozone – public support for the euro, as distinct from support for European integration more generally, may falter when governments implement austerity.

This logic notwithstanding, it is difficult to disentangle the effect of austerity on public opinion from the effect of the economic crises that generally precede it. Some scholars have used experiments to address this problem, but that runs into a different issue. Asking people to imagine how they might respond to austerity is different from seeing them respond to its actual implementation. Instead, we rely on a subset of budget cuts and tax increases that were implemented unrelated to general economic malaise. We combine this with multiple waves of the Eurobarometer public opinion survey to construct a uniquely rich data set that captures individual opinions on the euro across time and Eurozone member states.

Leveraging this data, our JCMS article shows how austerity affects public support for the euro both in general and for specific groups in society. We make several contributions to the literature in doing so. First, we show that the public reacts about twice as negatively to budget cuts as they do to tax increases. Second, we find that the effect of austerity has a particularly pronounced effect for unemployed individuals, who are more vulnerable to austerity than others. Third and most interestingly, our results indicate that right-wing individuals have a stronger negative response to austerity in terms of their support for the euro than do left-wing individuals.

This latter finding is surprising, as it runs counter to the conventional wisdom that austerity – “having one’s books in order” – is a policy typically favoured by (neo-liberal) conservatives and opposed by progressives. We make sense of this finding in the context of support for the euro: having a supranational currency at all is opposed by the far-right, whereas the far-left opposes the neoliberal practice of Eurozone management, which could feasibly change. This perspective fits well with recent findings that euroscepticism has strengthened over time on the right as compared with the political left.

We make several smaller contributions in the paper on top of these core findings. For example, to see whether it is a reasonable assumption that people link austerity with the euro, we see what share of newspaper articles in the member states that mention austerity also mention monetary integration. For the period between 2002 and 2024, we find that this share runs between 18 and 27 per cent across the six member states for whom we could get data: Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Ireland, and Germany. Given this high share, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to assume that the media plays an important part in informing the public about the economic consequences of Eurozone membership.

Also, contrary to earlier work but in line with recent insights, we find men and women react equally strongly to austerity. We furthermore find evidence suggesting that the effect is stronger in older member states than the Central and Eastern European states that acceded the Eurozone more recently. We also find that the anti-euro effect we uncover is a distinct response from general anti-EU sentiment that may arise during austerity, in line with our theoretical expectations based on the political economy of having a common currency. Finally, we show that the effect of austerity on support for the euro disappears during the Eurozone crisis, when policy uncertainty was high.

What should policymakers in Brussels and the member states take away from our work? First and foremost, it is important to recognize that the effects we uncover, while relevant, are substantively small. Even when faced with budget cuts, which show the largest effect on attitudes to the euro, people are only 4% less likely to support the euro. Some might see that as an indicator that Brussels could dictate budget discipline with little political consequence. Nevertheless, society should be aware that austerity is not a burden shared equally between all members of society: some are more vulnerable to its effects than others. Asking some groups in society to shoulder a greater part of the collective burden, especially when they are already relatively worse off economically, could result in political backlash.

Nicola Nones is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto. His research interests include the economic role of media and leaders, and the political economy of finance.

Link: https://www.nicolanones.com/

 

 

Melle Scholten is a Lecturer at the Department of Public Administration at the University of Twente. His research interests include the political economy of labour and migration, and public opinion on globalization and migration.

Link: https://mellescholten.github.io/

 

The post Austerity and support for the euro appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

L'Assemblée nationale a voté mardi le projet de loi de financement de la Sécurité sociale (PLFSS) pour 2026, 247 députés ayant voté pour et 234 contre. Il s'agit d'une victoire importante pour le Premier ministre Sébastien Lecornu, qui gagne son pari dans une Assemblée sans majorité et sans avoir utilisé le 49.3. Retrouvez le fil de la journée du 9 décembre 2025.

Gampaha, a district on Colombo's outskirts, has been among the areas hardest hit by flooding after Cyclone Ditwah. Credit: UNICEF/InceptChange

By Asoka Bandarage
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 9 2025 (IPS)

Tropical Cyclone Ditwah, which made landfall in Sri Lanka on 28 November 2025, is considered the country’s worst natural disaster since the deadly 2004 tsunami. It intensified the northeast monsoon, bringing torrential rainfall, massive flooding, and 215 severe landslides across seven districts.

The cyclone left a trail of destruction, killing nearly 500 people, displacing over a million, destroying homes, roads, and railway lines, and disabling critical infrastructure including 4,000 transmission towers. Total economic losses are estimated at USD 6–7 billion—exceeding the country’s foreign reserves.

The Sri Lankan Armed Forces have led the relief efforts, aided by international partners including India and Pakistan. A Sri Lanka Air Force helicopter crashed in Wennappuwa, killing the pilot and injuring four others, while five Sri Lanka Navy personnel died in Chundikkulam in the north while widening waterways to mitigate flooding.

The bravery and sacrifice of the Sri Lankan Armed Forces during this disaster—as in past disasters—continue to be held in high esteem by grateful Sri Lankans.

The government, however, is facing intense criticism for its handling of Cyclone Ditwah, including failure to heed early warnings available since November 12, a slow and poorly coordinated response, and inadequate communication with the public.

Floodwaters entered several hospitals across Sri Lanka, further straining the health system. Credit: UNICEF/ InceptChange

Systemic issues—underinvestment in disaster management, failure to activate protocols, bureaucratic neglect, and a lack of coordination among state institutions—are also blamed for avoidable deaths and destruction.

The causes of climate disasters such as Cyclone Ditwah go far beyond disaster preparedness. Faulty policymaking, mismanagement, and decades of unregulated economic development have eroded the island’s natural defenses. As climate scientist Dr. Thasun Amarasinghe notes:
“Sri Lankan wetlands—the nation’s most effective natural flood-control mechanism—have been bulldozed, filled, encroached upon, and sold.

Many of these developments were approved despite warnings from environmental scientists, hydrologists, and even state institutions.”

Sri Lanka’s current vulnerabilities also stem from historical deforestation and plantation agriculture associated with colonial-era export development. Forest cover declined from 82% in 1881 to 70% in 1900, and to 54–50% by 1948, when British rule ended. It fell further to 44% in 1954 and to 16.5% by 2019.

Deforestation contributes an estimated 10–12% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Beyond removing a vital carbon sink, it damages water resources, increases runoff and erosion, and heightens flood and landslide risk. Soil-depleting monocrop agriculture further undermines traditional multi-crop systems that regenerate soil fertility, organic matter, and biodiversity.

In Sri Lanka’s Central Highlands, which were battered by Cyclone Ditwah, deforestation and unregulated construction had destabilized mountain slopes. Although high-risk zones prone to floods and landslides had long been identified, residents were not relocated, and construction and urbanization continued unchecked.

Sri Lanka was the first country in Asia to adopt neoliberal economic policies. With the “Open Economy” reforms of 1977, a capitalist ideology equating human well-being with quantitative growth and material consumption became widespread. Development efforts were rushed, poorly supervised, and frequently approved without proper environmental assessment.

Privatization and corporate deregulation weakened state oversight. The recent economic crisis and shrinking budgets further eroded environmental and social protections, including the maintenance of drainage networks, reservoirs, and early-warning systems. These forces have converged to make Sri Lanka a victim of a dual climate threat: gradual environmental collapse and sudden-onset disasters.

Sri Lanka: A Climate Victim

Sri Lanka’s carbon emissions remain relatively small but are rising. The impact of climate change on the island, however, is immense. Annual mean air temperature has increased significantly in recent decades (by 0.016 °C annually between 1961 and 1990). Sea-level rise has caused severe coastal erosion—0.30–0.35 meters per year—affecting nearly 55% of the shoreline. The 2004 tsunami demonstrated the extreme vulnerability of low-lying coastal plains to rising seas.

The Cyclone Ditwah catastrophe was neither wholly new nor surprising. In 2015, the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) identified Sri Lanka as the South Asian country with the highest relative risk of disaster-related displacement: “For every million inhabitants, 15,000 are at risk of being displaced every year.”

IDMC also noted that in 2017 the country experienced seven disaster events—mainly floods and landslides—resulting in 135,000 new displacements and that Sri Lanka “is also at risk for slow-onset impacts such as soil degradation, saltwater intrusion, water scarcity, and crop failure”.

Sri Lanka ranked sixth among countries most affected by extreme weather events in 2018 (Germanwatch) and second in 2019 (Global Climate Risk Index). Given these warnings, Cyclone Ditwah should not have been a surprise. Scientists have repeatedly cautioned that warmer oceans fuel stronger cyclones and warmer air hold more moisture, leading to extreme rainfall.

As the Ceylon Today editorial of December 1, 2025 also observed: “…our monsoons are no longer predictable. Cyclones form faster, hit harder, and linger longer. Rainfall becomes erratic, intense, and destructive. This is not a coincidence; it is a pattern.”

Without urgent action, even more extreme weather events will threaten Sri Lanka’s habitability and physical survival.

A Global Crisis

Extreme weather events—droughts, wildfires, cyclones, and floods—are becoming the global norm. Up to 1.2 billion people could become “climate refugees” by 2050. Global warming is disrupting weather patterns, destabilizing ecosystems, and posing severe risks to life on Earth. Indonesia and Thailand were struck by the rare and devastating Tropical Cyclone Senyar in late November 2025, occurring simultaneously with Cyclone Ditwah’s landfall in Sri Lanka.

More than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions—and nearly 90% of carbon emissions—come from burning coal, oil, and gas, which supply about 80% of the world’s energy. Countries in the Global South, like Sri Lanka, which contribute least to greenhouse gas emissions, are among the most vulnerable to climate devastation.

Yet wealthy nations and multilateral institutions, including the World Bank, continue to subsidize fossil fuel exploration and production. Global climate policymaking—including COP 30 in Belém, Brazil, in 2025—has been criticized as ineffectual and dominated by fossil fuel interests.

If the climate is not stabilized, long-term planetary forces beyond human control may be unleashed. Technology and markets are not inherently the problem; rather, the issue lies in the intentions guiding them. The techno-market worldview, which promotes the belief that well-being increases through limitless growth and consumption, has contributed to severe economic inequality and more frequent extreme weather events.

The climate crisis, in turn, reflects a profound mismatch between the exponential expansion of a profit-driven global economy and the far slower evolution of human consciousness needed to uphold morality, compassion, generosity and wisdom.

Sri Lanka’s 2025–26 budget, adopted on November 14, 2025—just as Cyclone Ditwah loomed—promised subsidized land and electricity for companies establishing AI data centers in the country. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake told Parliament: “Don’t come questioning us on why we are giving land this cheap; we have to make these sacrifices.”

Yet Sri Lanka is a highly water-stressed nation, and a growing body of international research shows that AI data centers consume massive amounts of water and electricity, contributing significantly to greenhouse gas emissions.

The failure of the narrow, competitive techno-market approach underscores the need for an ecological and collective framework capable of addressing the deeper roots of this existential crisis—both for Sri Lanka and the world.

Ecological and Human Protection

Ecological consciousness demands recognition that humanity is part of the Earth, not separate from it. Policies to address climate change must be grounded in this understanding, rather than in worldviews that prize infinite growth and technological dominance.

Nature has primacy over human-created systems: the natural world does not depend on humanity, while humanity cannot survive without soil, water, air, sunlight, and the Earth’s essential life-support systems.

Although a climate victim today, Sri Lanka is also home to an ancient ecological civilization dating back to the arrival of the Buddhist monk Mahinda Thera in the 3rd century BCE. Upon meeting King Devanampiyatissa, who was out hunting in Mihintale, Mahinda Thera delivered one of the earliest recorded teachings on ecological interdependence and the duty of rulers to protect nature:

“O great King, the birds of the air and the beasts of the forest have as much right to live and move about in any part of this land as thou. The land belongs to the people and all living beings; thou art only its guardian.”

A stone inscription at Mihintale records that the king forbade the killing of animals and the destruction of trees. The Mihintale Wildlife Sanctuary is believed to be the world’s first.

Sri Lanka’s ancient dry-zone irrigation system—maintained over more than a millennium—stands as a marvel of sustainable development. Its network of interconnected reservoirs, canals, and sluices captured monsoon waters, irrigated fields, controlled floods, and even served as a defensive barrier.

Floods occurred, but historical records show no disasters comparable in scale, severity, or frequency to those of today. Ancient rulers, including the legendary reservoir-builder King Parākramabāhu, and generations of rice farmers managed their environment with remarkable discipline and ecological wisdom.

The primacy of nature became especially evident when widespread power outages and the collapse of communication networks during Cyclone Ditwah forced people to rely on one another for survival. The disaster ignited spontaneous acts of compassion and solidarity across all communities—men and women, rich and poor, Buddhists, Christians, Muslims, and Hindus.

Local and international efforts mobilized to rescue, shelter, feed, and emotionally support those affected. These actions demonstrated a profound human instinct for care and cooperation, often filling vacuums left by formal emergency systems.

Yet spontaneous solidarity alone is insufficient. Sri Lanka urgently needs policies on sustainable development, environmental protection, and climate resilience. These include strict, science-based regulation of construction; protection of forests and wetlands; proper maintenance of reservoirs; and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Schools should teach environmental literacy that builds unity and solidarity, rather than controversial and divisive curriculum changes like the planned removal of history and introduction of contested modules on gender and sexuality.

If the IMF and international creditors—especially BlackRock, Sri Lanka’s largest sovereign bondholder, valued at USD 13 trillion—are genuinely concerned about the country’s suffering, could they not cancel at least some of Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt and support its rebuilding efforts?

Addressing the climate emergency and the broader existential crisis facing Sri Lanka and the world ultimately requires an evolution in human consciousness guided by morality, compassion, generosity and wisdom.

Dr Asoka Bandarage is the author of Colonialism in Sri Lanka: The Political Economy of the Kandyan Highlands, 1833-1886 (Mouton) Women, Population and Global Crisis: A Politico-Economic Analysis (Zed Books), The Separatist Conflict in Sri Lanka: Terrorism, Ethnicity, Political Economy, ( Routledge), Sustainability and Well-Being: The Middle Path to Environment, Society and the Economy (Palgrave MacMillan) Crisis in Sri Lanka and the World: Colonial and Neoliberal Origins, Ecological and Collective Alternatives (De Gruyter) and numerous other publications. She serves on the Advisory Boards of the Interfaith Moral Action on Climate and Critical Asian Studies.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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