Africa

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Mar 17 2020 (IPS)

‘Getting government out of the way’, the neoliberal ‘free market’ mantra, was supposed to boost private investment. Instead, business investment has declined as a consequence. Many economies now seem incapable of making much needed investments to sustain growth, apparently due to ‘capital allocation’ problems.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Neoliberal policies—including tax cuts, trade liberalization, deregulation, worker casualization—have greatly boosted returns, which have not been re-invested productively, as promised. Unsurprisingly, neoliberal economists’ claims have been discredited by their policies’ failure to significantly increase investments in the real economy in recent decades.

As William Lazonick’s Profits without Prosperity has argued, the outcome has been ‘predatory value extraction’, rather than ‘value creation’. Although mainly discussing the US, his seminal Harvard Business Review article offers invaluable insights into financial investment trends and their implications.

Not growth promoting
Trump’s 2017 corporate tax cut was supposed to increase private investments, raising output and jobs growth. Although investment increased in early 2018, capital spending soon stalled, lowering growth projections.

By mid-2019, S&P 500 companies were spending more to buy back their own shares than on fresh capital investment. Prospects of a major investment boom, due to the generous tax cut, are no longer taken seriously.

Apple’s stock buybacks, which had started in 2013, totaled US$326 billion by the end of 2019, accelerating after Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. There is no indication that Apple significantly increased investing in capital-intensive, fundamental innovations as a consequence.

Among major US corporations, Apple is among the few well-placed with sufficient resources to finance new manufacturing capacity and major technological advances. Without sufficient investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, facilities, equipment, training, etc., US productivity has stagnated, dimming its future economic prospects.

The US Fed’s unconventional monetary policies following the 2008-2009 financial crisis and more recent Trump administration deregulatory policy initiatives have not delivered strong investment and output growth, but asset price inflation instead.

Companies have responded to quantitative easing with more debt-financed buybacks, while US corporate investment has continued to decline, as shares of output, corporate profits or market capitalization, since the 1980s.

There is little evidence that more handsome corporate profits — e.g., due to cost savings, from weaker anti-trust and other regulations, cheaper labour and lower taxes, both at home and abroad — have significantly increased real investments in the US economy.

Enabling value extraction
Lazonick and Shin’s new book, Predatory Value Extraction: How the Looting of the Business Corporation Became the US Norm and How Sustainable Prosperity Can Be Restored argues that while stock prices are driven by innovation, speculation and manipulation, share buybacks have become a major means of lucrative financial market manipulation.

The free enterprise system is supposed to efficiently allocate capital for private corporations to make the most productive investments. A company’s retained profits are the basis of corporate finance, which can then be leveraged with debt, although Lazonick’s analysis of corporate finance challenges the misleading Modigliani-Miller presumption that equity and debt are perfect substitutes.

But market finance ideology sees the stock market as a superior allocator of resources for investment in companies, which it rarely is. While share buybacks have raised stock market indices, such indicators may be quite disconnected from real corporate performance.

Share buybacks imply that US corporations have no better investment options than to further raise already high, over-valued financial asset prices, thus reducing investment resources for future growth. It also enables private equity investors, such as venture capital, to liquidate their investments in productive assets.

This raises doubts about both the corporation and the financial system. Either the corporation is dysfunctional, as investments in the real economy are still needed, or finance is being misallocated, due to poor, or worse, perverse incentives. As corporations cannot productively invest finance, the system is clearly dysfunctional.

Problematic consequences
As the financial system is increasingly enabling and promoting value extraction, at the expense of badly needed value creation, neoliberal economics has been increasingly exposed as sophistry by contemporary developments and trends.

More portfolio investments in financial markets have worsened economic inequality as half of Americans own no shares. US wealth concentration is higher than in most other developed countries, with the top 10 per cent owning over 80 percent, while the top one per cent has almost 40 per cent.

As corporations are acknowledging they have no use of much capital, the state can use such investible resources to fund sorely needed public investment. Taxing ‘capital returns’ to shareholders is considered efficient in such circumstances as the taxpayer has acknowledged no use for the cash.

Meanwhile, government spending on public services and infrastructure investment has declined significantly over recent decades. Cutting government spending has been a neoliberal policy objective for many decades, but financial market trends may well have unwittingly created the conditions for mitigating some of its worse consequences.

Those opposing such government efforts claim to be defending markets and capitalism, although share buybacks effectively undermine their claims. Growing predatory value extraction, instead of value creation, raises the question of whether capitalism can be saved from itself.

The post Share Buybacks Enable Predatory Value Extraction appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Twenty years ago, they were locked inside a church that was set on fire in south-west Uganda.

Young South Africans react to strict new measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

The author is journalist and communications specialist; veteran of Al Jazeera English, BBC and CNN International.

By Veronica Pedrosa
Mar 16 2020 (IPS-Partners)

First of all, I wish everyone reading this good health.

Second of all, I wish for everyone to get informed – I mean properly informed from the many reliable sources out there. These areextraordinary times and every one of us needs to find a way to getthrough them the best way we can for ourselves, our families andour communities.

COVID-19 has governments around the world asking us tofundamentally change the way we live: working from home ifpossible, restricting travel, sports and entertainment venues areshutting their doors, as are schools and universities. Someaccounts say it’s all happening “amid fears of coronavirus” but Ithink that’s lazy writing, a useful cliché. Better to remember thatthese steps are being taken for very good reason. They are wellstudied measures to slow the spread of infection. Of course many people are indeed afraid, if not for themselves then for their lovedones and their livelihoods, but the point of these actions is to find away to stay healthy and alive.

In China, in Italy and as of tomorrow (Sunday) in the Philippines governments are putting millions of people in lockdown andenforcing it with varying degrees of severity, but not here in the UK, not yet anyway.

The government’s view is that it wouldn’t make much difference atthis point, and is primarily concerned with delaying the spike or “flattening the curve” for as long as possible so that the health caresystem isn’t overloaded. That’s what’s happened in China, Iran andItaly with health care workers having to make terrible choices over which patients will receive life-saving therapies because there isn’tenough equipment, beds or carers. Doctors and nurses arecatching the virus and dying. All this is happening in rich nations with adequate healthcare systems.

If the spread of the virus is going to be slowed, ultimately it will beup to us ordinary people to take the guidance at face value andfollow it. The single most powerful thing any one of us can do is tofrequently wash our hands for at least 20 seconds with soap andwater, if that’s not available then use alcohol-based hand sanitiser. “Frequently” for me means every time I leave or arrive anywhere, especially after touching a surface that others may have touched. Certainly more often than you would normally.

Next: don’t touch your face. The most common way of catching any virus is getting the germs on your hands (the virus survives longer on a hard surface), then touching your mouth or nose.

There are mixed views on wearing a face mask. If you’ve got any flusymptoms then you’d protect other people if you wear one,otherwise the very least is that it would stop you touching your face.

If you can minimise going to public places, do so; when you have tobe near others – distansiya lang. The lockdowns around the worldare to deny people movement and places to go so we don’t infecteach other in the process; but we can voluntarily decide to changeour behaviour to “social distancing”. Hunker down, work from home,and know you’re helping make the world a safer place. It’s a serious challenge to our social nature, but it is also potentially life-saving. InItaly, people are lining up to get into the grocery with two metres between them and they’re only being let into the shop a few at atime.

One expert here has said it just isn’t possible to reduce the number of deaths from COVID-19 without it having an impact on theeconomy. Millions of people are likely to go unpaid, overseas workers stranded and lose their jobs. Already millions of dollars have been wiped off the value of shares in stock markets aroundthe world and the worst of the virus is yet to come in the USA, UK, the Philippines and many other places.

—— —— —— ——

In London, pubs and restaurants are bracing for the worst, even in Shoreditch, one of the hippest neighbourhoods in the capital. This part of east London is where the cool bars, eateries and shops buzz with creative energy that is modern and multicultural.

Pinoy cuisine as interpreted by chef Francis Puyat at Rapsa@100Hoxton is a unique addition that’s been a big hit with the hipsters. Puyat told me when he was just 10 years old in Mindoro he’d go tothe river with his friends, catch guppy fish and cook them on thespot, but his dad would scold him when he got back for not makingpaalam.

30 years later, having worked in one of London’s best knownrestaurants, NOPI, with celebrity chef Yotam Ottolenghi, Puyat’s created a menu that takes Asian fusion to a new level. It’s innovative but accessible, as the restaurant’s website puts it: “designed with a modern twist that makes it perfect for newcomers to try and grow to love the beauty and taste of the best Filipinorestaurant in London- mouth-watering in its simplicity and heartwarming in its prices.”

I met film-maker Leah Borromeo and Rohingya activist Ma Htikethere for Sunday brunch. Htike had salmon kinilaw, and adoboeggplant salad with cashew, and pickled pepino. I couldn’t resisttocilog breakfast: the tocino bacon was stupendously sweet, salty and sticky. Leah had the cured salmon with bibingka loaf, scrambled egg, salted duck creme fraiche, herb salad, and candiednuts. Dessert was a grand finale of warm, sticky, cold and gooey sweetness: biko with chocolate brownie ice-cream and latik caramelised coconut.

Andrew Zilouf, owner of Rapsa and third generation east Londonrestaurateur, says Philippine food is the original Asian fusioncuisine, he loves it and came up with the restaurant’s trademark
“boodle fight” served on banana leaves. He told me a lot ofLondoners come without even realising the food is Filipino, and he’s planned new promotions despite the challenge of this newcoronavirus. “Chef has reinvented the dishes, but it still has authenticity and traditional elements, like the oxtail kare-kare thathe’s made with croquettes. Come and try it!”

I promise it’s worth risking a special journey out, armed with handsanitiser of course.

The post Life is Sweet appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

The author is journalist and communications specialist; veteran of Al Jazeera English, BBC and CNN International.

The post Life is Sweet appeared first on Inter Press Service.

The East African state is in partial lockdown following the detection of three cases since Friday.

South Africa puts football and cricket activities on hold as it seeks to minimise the impact of coronavirus.

Two HerStory Fellows conducting a reading session at Terre Des Hommes Kalshi Adolescent Club. Credit: HerStory Foundation

By Zareen Mahmud Hosein
NEW YORK, Mar 16 2020 (IPS)

When you flip through grade one Bangla school textbooks there is very little written about the progress women have made in Bangladesh since the Beijing Conference for Women in 1995.

Although women’s participation in the labor force and in leadership positions increased over the past decades, gender stereotyping is a norm and gender equality is still an elusive idea. Often women are shown through illustrations in school text books as homemakers and teachers. Girls are shown to be eating or serving food juxtaposed with boys who are happily illustrated playing the drum or the ‘tabla’.

How about changing these illustrations to show more women in the many other professional fields where they are increasingly taking on important roles? The narratives accompanying the illustrations must change, bringing a lifelong mindset change in our children, making gender equality a normal feature in the future.

At HerStory Foundation storytelling is used in its varied forms because stories have the power to change beliefs and actions to move towards gender equality. We are creating books for children, so they believe in their potential to be responsible and independent citizens of this world.

When it comes to women’s rights, Bangladeshi women face disadvantages on many fronts, from access to health services, violence and rape, economic opportunities to access or control of finances.

What causes this disparity? According to a study by BRAC Institute of Governance and Development, more than half (54%) of the country’s youth say they do not have a role model. Young women, in particular, are less interested in having a role model in their lives compared to young men. In addition, rural youth are “significantly less interested in having role models compared to urban youth.” The most shocking of all is that more than 70% of youth with limited or no education could not state a role model in their lives.

Our work focusing on gender equality and quality education has taken me to different classrooms across Bangladesh. On many occasions we asked rural school children what they aspire to be when they grow up. The responses almost always range from being an engineer or a doctor for boys and a teacher for girls. Sometimes the boys will say they aspire to be a cricketer or a pilot. Very rarely do girls say that they want to be engineers or pilots.

Gender roles are so deeply ingrained in these children’s psyches, they cannot be blamed for not being able to imagine a world where they too can be or do more than the prescribed or imposed career thoughts set by society.

These children are unable to dream beyond the set ‘career paths’ because they have not been exposed to other role models. The stories they are told, the textbooks they read only talk of ‘history’ or ‘his’ story ; women are sadly not in the picture.

Local textbooks, apart from serving curricular goals, have the responsibility to portray, in equal measure, the social and historical roles played by both men and women in the country. However, there is a staggering lack in female representation. One look at textbooks in Bangladesh shows that women are underrepresented or missing from the overall picture.

Chandrabati illustrated by Inshra Sakhawat Russell, part of HerStories:Adventures of Supergirls book on trailblazing women from Ancient Bengal and present day Bangladesh. Credit: HerStory Foundation

The marginalization of women in both public and private spheres remains a pressing concern. Women are still underrepresented across sectors, oppressed by discriminatory laws and processes and still held back by social barriers perpetuated by patriarchal mindsets. This means that the challenge must be addressed through creative and diverse means in order to influence individual and community level change.

On the contrary, history of Bangladesh is full of stories of powerful, trailblazing women in unconventional roles: from the astrologer Khana who continued her work despite having her tongue slit to PritilataWaddedar, the Bengali revolutionary and rebel leader who led a group of fighters to end British rule in 1932. Even in contemporary times, we are seeing women triumph and excel in what was reserved for men only – mountain climbing to weightlifting. Mabia Akhter is Bangladesh’s award-winning weightlifter while Nishat Mazumdar its first female Everest summiteer.

Two years ago we formed a small team to produce the HerStory Trailblazers exhibition for International Women’s Day bringing together 20 female artists to create 20 portraits of Bangladeshi female trailblazers. The intention was to build an archive of women’s stories through interviews and ongoing research to examine how far women in Bangladesh have come, and what more needs to be done.

The response and feedback to the educational exhibition was overwhelming and brought to light the lack of content on female history. Through this exhibition, we identified a cultural blind spot and the demand for gender equality in history and storytelling. This was the beginning of our journey as development content creators.

Following this exhibition we moved to create an illustrated children’s book based on the biographies of 20 Bangladeshi Supergirls: HerStories: The Adventures of Supergirls. Today, HerStories is available in both Bangla and English. Written for children of different ages, the books feature 42 Illustrated stories about trailblazing women from ancient Bengal to present day Bangladesh. The books showcase positive female role models so that young girls can aspire to dream big and boys can develop respect and understanding.

Although there are scores of women who have made significant contributions to the growth and development of Bangladesh, their stories, struggles, and influence are often missing or underrepresented in the media and in education curricula. Stories about the trailblazer women have the power to change mindsets.

As part of the Foundation’s work, we collect, preserve and tell stories about women who changed the rules of the game, thereby challenging gender stereotypes and rebuilding narratives through different mediums. By commissioning and featuring the work of female writers and artists we are also supporting and promoting female creative professionals and building meaningful support systems.

A story comes alive when read, and HerStories are brought to life in the classroom by readers and teachers through interactive story sessions and unique teaching materials. A Fellowship program for university students run by the Foundation helps to prepare them to be future leaders who will promote gender equality in every sphere they operate in. These students are trained to share the adventures of Supergirls with grade three young readers. During the session they learn about passion, determination, challenges, justice and also cricket !

The positive reinforcement of storytelling helps to nurture empathy, respect and self-reliance. Readings are engaging, entertaining, and inspiring, encouraging the children of tomorrow to aspire for greater heights and be aware of the whole range of career paths available to them.

While the read-alouds help dispel gender bias among children, more work is required in terms of having more female voices heard. In 2019, we launched ‘Taramon’, a media platform for and by women which aims to inspire, inform, and engage women of different ages and backgrounds by providing interesting and informative written and visual content that can help women navigate their various social and personal challenges.

‘Taramon’ is a space for women to express themselves, showcase their successes, and build a supportive network. The blog content generates discussion and challenge sexist social narratives by presenting a female perspective – something that hasn’t been done before or on this scale.

The HerStory Foundation’s work has the central element of sharing and telling stories and encouraging discourse on women, two vital catalysts of change, especially when it comes to propelling women’s rights and bringing these to the forefront.

Holding fast to the belief that storytellers and artists are catalysts of change, we have learned that the way forward is to work on the challenges of social norms and prejudices, introducing narratives about unity, inclusion and diversity through more stories, or by documenting those women’s voices that have been silenced for generations.

The writer is founder of HerStory Foundation (www.herstorybd.org).

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

The post I Am Generation Equality: Storytelling for Equality appeared first on Inter Press Service.

By Ehtesham Shahid
ABU DHABI, Mar 16 2020 (IPS-Partners)

The IMF-supported economic reforms program launched in 2016 succeeded in improving almost macroeconomic indicators for the Egyptian economy yet a new phase of reforms is needed to tackle the remaining problems on the supply side, a
new study has claimed.

A Policy Paper – Egypt beyond economic stabilization: the road to sustainable growth – published by TRENDS Research & Advisory says that such a step would enhance the economy’s efficiency and achieve sustainable and inclusive growth.

“As the reform program reached its conclusion in November 2019, with significant improvement in containing domestic absorption and in some structural issues, challenges remain for sustainable and inclusive economic growth,” says the study.

According to the research study, areas of improvements includes simulating domestic private investment and foreign direct investment apart from the energy sector. Other areas that require policy attention are privatization, human capital development and resolving red tape, inefficiency, and redefining the roles of public and private sectors.

Reform achievements

The study explained that the IMF program succeeded in improving almost all the macroeconomic indicators for the Egyptian economy as the real GDP growth increased from 4.3 percent in 2015/16 (fiscal year starts July 1st) to 5.5 percent in 2018/19 and was estimated to be 6 percent in the medium term.

“The unemployment rate declined from 12.7 percent in 2015/16 to 8.8 percent in 2018/19. As for the inflation rate, the initial evaluation and adjustment of fuel prices led to a spike in it to reach 29.8 percent in 2016/17, but the prudent monetary policy that tackled the second-round effects led to a continuous decline of the inflation rate to reach 12.4 percent by the end of 2018/19,” the study said .

According to the study, the consolidation efforts succeeded in switching the primary deficit of -3.5 percent of the GDP in 2015/16 to a primary surplus of 2.0 percent in 2018/19, which led the overall budget deficit to decline from -12.5 percent of the GDP to -8.2 percent.

Egypt’s ranking in the Global Competitiveness index improved with the implementation of the 2016 reform program as its overall ranking reached 93 out of 141 countries in 2019 compared to 100 out of 137 countries in 2017/18, said the study.

The CHEP framework

One of the important highlights of the study was the introduction of CHEP as an integrated structural policy framework for enhancing the supply side of the Egyptian economy. The suggested framework covers four major pillars – Competitiveness Improvement, Human Capital Development, Efficiency Enhancement, and Private Sector Participation.

To achieve sustainable and inclusive growth, the study recommends a policy framework for enhancing the supply side of the economy, driven by improving Egypt’s global ranking in the Doing Business Index, and the Global Competitiveness Index.

“These reforms should target the policies related to improving human capital, increasing the role of the private sector through enhancing privatization and encouraging PPPs, removing the remaining distortions, cutting red tape, and working mainly on achieving significant improvements on Egypt’s global ranking in almost all components of the Human Development Index, the Doing Business Index, and the Global Competitiveness Index,” the study says.

The post New reforms needed to tackle Egypt’s economic challenges, claims TRENDS study appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

The IMF program implemented policy adjustments and structural reforms yet challenges remain for sustainable and inclusive economic growth

The post New reforms needed to tackle Egypt’s economic challenges, claims TRENDS study appeared first on Inter Press Service.

This playground just outside the Slovak capital, Bratislava, has been sealed off to stop people spreading the virus. Similar measures are in place in cities and towns across Europe, which is now the epicentre of the virus's spread. Credit: Ed Holt/IPS

By Ed Holt
BRASTISLAVA , Mar 16 2020 (IPS)

Governments in wealthy, first world countries must not ignore the plight of poorer nations battling the coronavirus or the disease will not be brought under control, global development experts have said.

As African nations slowly report growing numbers of cases, and more and more infections are registered in countries with endemic poverty on other continents, there are growing fears that some states could soon see major outbreaks they will not be able to cope with.

A potential paralysation of already vulnerable healthcare systems would not only have a drastic impact on population health, but could also push people further into poverty and deprivation, World Health Organisation (WHO) officials have told IPS.

But if developing countries are overwhelmed by the virus, there is a threat that the disease would rage on in developing countries, even if it is brought under control in developed states, and inevitably spread back into places like North America and Europe.

To avoid such a scenario, rich states must keep a focus on helping other countries with weak healthcare systems, despite the fact they are fighting their own battle with the disease, say experts.

“High income countries are completely consumed with what is happening in their own states, but it would be good if they could give at least some focus to poorer countries,” Amanda Glassman, executive vice president of the Washington-based Global Centre for Development think-tank, told IPS.

“If things are not brought under control in less developed countries, it could come back to hurt developed countries later on,” she added.

There have so far been more than 169,387 COVID-19 infections and 6,513 deaths, according to today’s figures. 

The past week saw an unprecedented shutdown of Europe and the United States, with widespread school, restaurant, cinema and museum closures. Several countries across Europe have closed their borders, with Germany being the latest to shutdown all non-essential travel.

While the vast majority of cases have been in China, where the virus was first detected, with Italy being the country with the second-highest most cases, followed by Iran, South Korea and Spain. Europe is now the epicentre of the pandemic.

Significant infections have been recorded in the United States and some other Asian countries, and the Philippines capital of Manila has been sealed off.

But while there have been far fewer registered cases of the disease in places like Africa and South America, many health experts believe that those numbers could very quickly rise dramatically.

Healthcare systems in many poor countries, especially in Africa, are already severely stretched with limited financing and resources. Access to hospitals, and especially intensive care units, are generally much lower than in developed nations – studies have estimated that less than half of Africa’s population has access to modern health facilities.

Some countries also face extra burdens such as battling other endemic diseases, recent natural catastrophes, or coping with large-scale refugee influxes.

“Sub-Saharan Africa is already struggling with the Ebola virus and the locust invasion and associated famines. It now faces a third war against the coronavirus. In many countries, resources are stretched thin,” international policy expert and found of the Difference Group advisory organisation, Dr. Dan Steinbock, told IPS.

Any major COVID-19 outbreak could affect incidence, and treatment of, other diseases in some African states, Dr Ambrose Talisuna, Programme Manager for Emergency Preparedness, at the WHO Regional Office for Africa, told IPS.

“We fear that the healthcare systems in some African countries could be completely paralysed.

“We saw this with Ebola [outbreaks in some African countries]. There was a diversion of resources to the disease and the healthcare system couldn’t deal with the shock of the outbreak. People died of malaria, people couldn’t get treatment for tuberculosis,” he said.

Even countries with relatively developed healthcare systems could face similar problems. South Africa has the world’s worst HIV/AIDS epidemic and it is not known how a major coronavirus outbreak may affect treatment for those with HIV/AIDS or outcomes if they are infected with COVID-19.

“We don’t know what might happen with issues relating to COVID-19 infections and other conditions, such as HIV/AIDS,” said Glassman.

In Latin America, where more than two thirds of people live in extreme poverty, doctors have already warned of the strain widespread coronavirus infections could put on hospitals and health workers.

Writing in the the Folha de São Paulo newspaper last week, Drauzio Varella said: “…. depending on the speed with which the epidemic spreads, the stress on our health system could be brutal.”

There would also be serious economic problems. Not only would massive financial resources have to go into healthcare rapidly, but measures implemented to contain the virus’s spread, such as travel restrictions, business closures, quarantines, would very soon affect people’s incomes.

“As we saw with Ebola, there can be a massive effect on the local economy and people’s income. If people cannot travel because of restrictions and cannot do ‘petty trade’, which is what some rely on to survive, then they will have nothing,” said Talisuna.

One potential advantage some less developed countries may have in dealing with an initial outbreak is their experience with other deadly infectious diseases.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a devastating Ebola outbreak has just been brought under control. Talisuna pointed out that checks for COVID-19 could simply be added to existing screening on entry into the country which was set up because of the Ebola outbreak.

“Prevention measures and training of healthcare staff could just be refreshed, so people that were used in Ebola prevention could be trained up quickly to deal with the coronavirus. The response can be scaled up quickly,” he said.

Many countries, including some of the poorest in the world in Asia, Latin America and Africa, have begun introducing strict measures to try and halt the spread of the disease. These have included closing borders and mandatory quarantine.

While the WHO has supported the use of such measures, they have been shown to have had an enormous economic toll with sectors such as travel, transportation, tourism and retail, among others, all seriously affected.

They are, however, necessary, some argue.

“The draconian measures that China opted for have been very costly. But all alternatives would have been much worse. Chinese leadership had to choose between extensive economic damage in one to two quarters with probable virus containment, or far greater economic devastation coupled with drastic increases in cases and deaths,” said Steinbock.

But the costs cannot, and should not, be borne by developing nations alone, development experts say.

While local governments can help businesses and individuals with measures such as tax relief, providing financial support through loans, and exemptions from health and social security payments, other countries have a role to play, they argue.

Earlier this month, the World Bank made $12 billion available in immediate support to help countries coping with the health and economic impacts of the global outbreak. The International Monetary Fund has said $10 billion could be mobilised in loans to low-income countries tackling the virus. On Mar. 13 WHO and its partners launched the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund which aims to raise funds from private and corporate individuals to contribute to global response efforts.

Meanwhile, other money is being redirected from existing funding: for example the Global Fund for HIV, TB and malaria is to allow some funds to be used for the virus response while the United Nations’ Central Emergency Response Fund global emergency response fund has made $15 million available.

More could be done though, Glassman said. “Multilateral investment banks need to boost their current lending,” she said.

Steinbock added: “Over a month ago, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus launched a $675 million preparedness plan hoping to contain the crisis and pave the way to deter future crises. That’s less than 1percent of the U.S. 2020 military budget. In late February, the European Commission earmarked $124 million for the WHO response plan, [but] other actors have not proved as generous.”

Individual countries have pledged contributions to global efforts to fight the disease, either directly to other states and health groups, through multilateral organisations, or to the WHO.

No matter how it is funded, experts agree that developing countries must be given whatever help is needed to contain the disease.

“If cases escape detection [in poor countries], then it is more likely than not that weak healthcare systems, coupled with endemic poverty and social instability could result in a secondary epidemic with potential global impact.

“If advanced economies hope to contain the global crisis, they can’t afford to ignore developing economies,” said Steinbock.

Related Articles

• Global Economic Consequences of COVID-19
• Fight, Not Flight, Must Be the Strategy for Flattening the COVID-19 Curve
• How will COVID-19 Affect Economies of Latin America & the Caribbean?

The post Why Rich Countries must Protect Developing Nations from Coronavirus Pandemic appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Credit: IMF

By Saber Azam
GENEVA, Mar 16 2020 (IPS)

The fourth and last presidential election in Afghanistan on 28 September 2019 was yet another setback to the democratic process. Not only did it take months for the Independent Election Commission to announce the results but they were again marred by allegations of massive fraud that culminated with two candidates declaring themselves as winners.

The world witnessed two inaugurations taking place on the same day (9 March 2020) at the same hour albeit at two different locations but on the premises of the same Presidential Palace. The incumbent proclaimed a win with less than one million total votes, representing only 2.6% of the total estimated population; his rival contested.

This was yet another huge disappointment for the many Afghans who still entertained the hope that democracy could hold root despite the systematic misdeeds of the past 19 years.

The US alone has spent nearly a trillion US $ to “fix” this “broken state”! The cost of military and covert operations is certainly not included in this figure.

Additional related expenditures within the US such as caring for veterans as well as multilateral and bilateral contributions would most probably bring the amount of money spent, since Hamid Karzai was installed in 2001, to some three trillion US $, slightly less compared to 4.1 trillion spent during World War II.

Europe became a political and economic giant, following the implementation of the Marshall Plan that cost 13.3 billion US $ at the time, about 103.4 billion in today’s value. Why then, one may ask, does Afghanistan continue along a path to abyss.?

To understand the facts and hurdles, one must consider the origin of the current tragedy. During the Afghan war against the Soviet Union (1980-88), the West’s focus was on bringing the communist giant to its knees by “establishing a callous Islamic belt” around Stalin’s empire. “Jihadists” from around the world were recruited to go and fight “the force of evil” in Afghanistan.

Western support benefitted mostly extremist mujahidin movements. There was less concern about the corollaries of such an uncalculated policy. While the likes of Osama bin Laden were encouraged to join the “freedom fighters” in Afghanistan with advanced weaponry and money, no action was taken against extremist indoctrination and training of thousands of young Afghans in madrassas, known as the Taliban, by the mighty military intelligence services of Pakistan, the ISI.

Credit: NATO

Perhaps the pro-Soviet stance of the Indian government at the time as well as the tense US-Iran relationship pushed. Washington to rely on Pakistan alone as Central Asia was still under the Soviet yoke. The then US administration made it clear that beating the Soviet Union was the mother of priorities and that the rest will fall in place naturally.

The Geneva Agreement on Afghanistan in 1988 was then “crafted” to pave an “honorable” way for the Red Army to withdraw from Afghanistan. With the complete departure of Soviet troops, the US lost interest in this country, leaving the management of the post-Soviet situation into the hands of Pakistan which played a major role in the ensuing civil war among mujahidin factions that resulted in nearly 30’000 civilian deaths and the rise of the Taliban to power. Afghanistan then became a sanctuary for terrorists.

Despite misapplication of the sharia law (most Taliban fighters are oblivious to the true tenets of Islam), systematic violation of human rights, the practice of torture and summary killings, the International Community remained silent.

Did such a lassitude embolden Al-Qaeda to conceive, prepare and perpetrate the 9/11 attacks? The question will remain unanswered.

While the post 9/11 objective of the US was to “smoke [the terrorists] out”, none of the principal figures, the likes of Osama bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Mullah Omar were apprehended. The southern and eastern main border crossing points of Afghanistan were left open, allowing them to flee to safe-havens in Pakistan.

Only a few second and mainly third category terrorists were apprehended and incarcerated in Guantanamo. The killing of Osama bin Laden by the Obama administration in May 2011 was too little, too late.

In Afghanistan, the US relied essentially on corrupt, inept and inefficient governments that functioned on the basis of nepotism, tribalism and personal gains. Rule of law was systematically violated by Mafiosi groups that benefitted from personal protection of the leaders of the regime.

State institutions became “personal properties” of the incumbents and high dignitaries rather than serving the population. The International Community and donors could not trace the use of their assistance due to serious “security constraints” that many believe were created by the rulers and their associates.

No tangible measures were taken against election rigging and violation of the principles of democracy that became state practice. While the 2005 presidential election was in accordance with the determination of the people’s wish, the subsequent 2009, 2014 and 2019 polls were marred with massive fraud.

Now Afghanistan has two declared Presidents. Would this lead to an unprecedented “clash of titans” and the effective division of the country along ethnic lines resulting in further tragedies?

Since long, the people in Afghanistan have lost trust in slogans that promoted democracy and rule of law as divergence between the script and actions of both the government and the West proved evident.

Desperate to disengage from its longest war, the US deal with the Taliban presents many similarities to the agreement that the Soviet Union had struck in 1988. This time it is the US army that will leave Afghanistan with some degree of honor.

The Taliban can claim victory over the International Community and US-led NATO forces. The major concern is the eventual immunity and probable political and financial support that would be provided to a group that has committed mass murder, war crimes and genocide.

The idea of another “government of national unity” with the inclusion of the Taliban is extremely risky. They may even claim total power like the mujahidin did some 28 years ago. If so, let us pray that this time around, the consequences would be different and beneficial to the people of Afghanistan. However, the population is afraid of the consequences of the deal.

With a polycephaly in Afghanistan, a fearless terrorist organization awaiting withdrawal of NATO troops, rampant corruption, division along ethnic and tribal affiliations, lack of accountability for crimes committed, and absence of an honest inter-Afghan understanding, the US plan has little chance of succeeding.

Democracy cannot be built on shaky foundations. Since the arrival of the coalition troops in 2001, democratic principles, institutions and behavior did not take root in Afghanistan. It is high time to opt for a new strategy and support wholly new leaders.

There is need to craft the future of the country around a comprehensive nation building program. Moreover, young, incorruptible and open-minded local figures, disposed to build institutions that would serve the population must be supported. Further delay to change the fundamental approach and to back a new team will enduringly harm our sacred principles of compassion!

*Polycephaly is a condition of having more than one head. The term is derived from the Greek stems poly- (Greek: “πολύ”) meaning ‘much’ and kephali- (Greek: “κεφάλι”) meaning “head”, and encompasses bicephaly and dicephaly (both referring to two-headedness).

For more information about the author, please refer to http://www.saberazam.com

The post Polycephaly* in Afghanistan: Failure of the US or Curse of History appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Excerpt:

Saber Azam presided over the “Comité Afghan d’Aide Humanitaire” in Switzerland. He is a former United Nations official and author of ‘SORAYA: The Other Princess’

The post Polycephaly* in Afghanistan: Failure of the US or Curse of History appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Borders are shut, schools are closed and mass gatherings banned as 26 states battle the virus.

By Haider A. Khan*
DENVER, Colorado, Mar 16 2020 (IPS)

The panic resulting from the events starting with the deaths in Wuhan keeps spreading globally faster than the spreading of the virus itself. Quite apart from the immediate health dangers, now a new economic danger looms large globally. We are facing the prospects of a deep and lasting global recession regardless of the health policy and economic policy measures taken by China, the US and other countries unless there is timely global cooperation and coordination. What will be the global economic impact of COVID-19 if swift and effective action is not taken globally? Is there a way to find out through some kind of rigorous model-based economic analysis?

Haider A. Khan

Indeed there may be a sober reality-based way of looking at the possible economic consequences. In work that is still ongoing, I have used the best available data from the World Bank, the IMF and other national and international sources about the Global Economy to do precisely this exercise. My preliminary results pertain to the overall effects for the World economy, China, the US, the Middle East as well as for specific sectors. More importantly, they also give us some rough insights into what the panic might mean for the major regions unless we take effective global action quickly.

In order to assess the impact, I have derived several sets of model-based counterfactual results. My work which is ongoing can be seen as a first step in analyzing the impact of COVID-19 rigorously. Aggregate consequences for the Global, Middle-Eastern(ME), EU and US economies in terms of output and employment losses are estimated from several models for several scenarios. These are both the containment costs and costs stemming from global panic with higher and lower bounds and an in-between scenario. Finally, a more complex economic systems model with explicit banking and financial sectors is used to analyze the financial systems scenarios.

It is clear that China will suffer the most. But so will Japan, the Middle East, the US and EU economies along with many other smaller economies. Hence there is no reason for the rivals of China to rejoice.With maximal containment costs and panic, Chinese GDP will decline by several percentage points. EU will lose about two percentage points and US about between one and one and a half per cent.But some of the model results already at hand should give thoughtful ME, US and EU citizens pause. With declining oil prices, the oil producing economies are already experiencing economic downturns. The direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 will worsen this trend.

As a first approximation, my current modeling results show that the easing of monetary policy and implementing expansionary fiscal policies—even if they are imposed immediately and coordinated globally— will take about six months to kick in and will lead towards the very low loss scenario, especially for China. But for EU and the US financial firms, the loss will be considerably more than what we have seen so far. The corresponding loss in global employment in these and other sectors should also give all countries pause.

While medical and public health professionals struggle to understand the nature of the virus and devise antidotes, strong economic measures need to taken globally and within countries to protect vulnerable groups. A coordinated interest rate cut will most probably happen; but monetary policy can not by itself help increase global investment and output. Tax cuts will help but will take time even if they are wisely designed to help not just the global rich but the middle class and the low income groups. Fiscal policies through direct government expenditures targeted to specific sectors and groups will be necessary.

Furthermore, trade policies are important too. If trade barriers go up because of this panic reinforcing earlier hostilities then all countries will be losers. The hostilities against China may well be heading in that direction. Likewise, some countries might try to counteract the loss in exports by devaluing their currencies. Such moves can rapidly expand through the international system creating a competitive devaluations scenario where no one will ultimately win.

Consider also the role that trading networks have always played. Clearly, with globalization these networks of firms across the globe are even more important than before. With a large scale disruption the dynamics of network trade may easily break down. Since networks require time to build up again, such large scale disruptions will result in longer term malfunction of the global trading system.

The world leaders must act quickly and resolutely before it is too late. We are facing the possibility of a vicious downward cycle in the global economy. Single countries can act and indeed have acted unilaterally, for example the US by cutting interest rates citing an emergency situation. But global coordination of monetary, fiscal, trade and exchange rates policies is sorely needed. If there was ever a time to devise globally coordinated policies through cooperation among US and China(G-2), the G-7 and more broadly, the G-20, it is now.

*John Evans Distinguished University Professor and Professor of Economics, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver

Distinguished Senior Fellow, Policy Research Institute

Distinguished International Advisor, BRAC University and North-South University

Contributor: Conversations, Huffington Post, Christian Science Monitor, European Economic and Social Committee, Current History, Cosmopolis, Al-Jazeera Online

The post Global Economic Consequences of COVID-19 appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Credit: (Lee Woodgate/Science Source)

By Siddharth Chatterjee
NAIROBI, Kenya, Mar 16 2020 (IPS)

The number of coronavirus cases in Kenya has jumped to three after the government confirmed two more cases. President Uhuru Kenyatta has announced a raft of proactive measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

Barely three months into the COVID-19 outbreak, stock markets have plummeted, and global supply and production systems have wobbled. Across the world panicked shoppers have cleared shelves of hand sanitizer, soap and tinned food, as if preparing for a siege.

The message by UN Secretary-General António Guterres that ‘as we fight the virus, we cannot let fear go viral’ is absolutely pertinent. And the people of Kenya can count on the United Nations Country team as an ally in this fight.

Global pandemics are the new threat to humanity. The number of new diseases per decade has increased nearly fourfold over the past 60 years, and since 1980, the number of outbreaks per year has more than tripled.

Factors such as climate change, rising populations and increased travel have made humans more vulnerable today than they were 100 years ago. An infection in one corner of the world can make its way to the most distant corner within a day.

In sub-Saharan Africa, there are genuine fears over how health systems will cope. Most are ill-prepared and ill-equipped to implement public health measures such as surveillance, exhaustive contact tracing, social distancing, travel restrictions and educating the public on hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette.

These are the basic steps that will delay the spread of infection and relieve pressure on hospitals, even as support is sought for costlier solutions such as personal protective equipment, ventilators, oxygen and testing kits.

For countries in Africa and other areas where health resources are limited, a little-understood pandemic such as COVID-19 is a challenge that requires a whole-of-society response. While science creates the tests and will eventually develop a vaccine, the most effective immediate responses to pandemics depend more on simple actions we can all carry out than on pharmaceutical-based solutions.

Flattening the COVID-19 curve will also be aided by accurate information. Rising public panic and hysteria is stoked by the difficulty in sifting fact from rumour, speculation and inaccurate information. One of the problems of the age of social media and citizen journalism is that it provides a forum for everyone, and enables the dangerous fiction that anyone with an opinion is an expert. In such circumstances a rational, science-driven narrative is difficult to sustain.

Getting ahead of COVID-19 by ensuring that only accurate information and scientific guidance takes control of the narrative is crucial. It is for this reason, the United Nations Country Team in Kenya is offering communications support – amongst other initiatives – to the Ministry of Health in its current commendable response to the problem. Everyone will benefit if they heed the wise counsel of CS Mutahi Kagwe. For example he emphasizes the importance of frequent and thorough hand washing. Hand washing saves lives and is the best defence against communicable diseases.

Though microbes are evolving millions of times as fast as humans, and humans have little or no immune protection against new flu strains, the scientific understanding of the risk of pandemics, and our ability to predict the next pandemic before it even happens, is better than ever.

It is now known, for instance, that most new infectious diseases originate in animals, including SARS from bats and some strains of influenza from birds. Factors that include close proximity to live animals, poor hygiene in relation to meat and live animals at markets, overcrowding, and bushmeat consumption can allow pathogens to jump the species barrier to humans.

These scientific advances are being deployed to find more comprehensive solutions such as vaccines. Widespread access to such vaccines confer immunity to individuals and even ‘herd immunity’ for populations. Vaccines work and have saved countless lives.

Countries in Africa must also take the fight to the pandemic through simple but effective measures for detecting, testing, isolating and mobilizing their people to mitigate transmission.

With simple, fact-informed hygiene measures as the main weapon, the continent can slow the virus’s spread and flatten the curve. And the UN family in Kenya is in lockstep with the Government of Kenya to fight COVID 19 on all fronts.

Siddharth Chatterjee is the United Nations resident coordinator to Kenya.

The post Fight, Not Flight, Must Be the Strategy for Flattening the COVID-19 Curve appeared first on Inter Press Service.

Ghanaian football postponed indefinitely at all levels of the game after government announcment.

The government has been slow to resolve the issue linked to the country's ethnic tensions.

They don jewelled masks on the red carpet and add #CoronaVirusFashion to social media posts.

She is accused of kidnapping her five-year-old daughter after she lost her custody battle.

A routine question about menstruation led Julian Peter to discover she had no vagina, womb or cervix.

Édith Blais and Luca Tacchetto, seized in 2018, apparently escaped and were picked up by UN forces.

Morocco's football federation announces the suspension of all football activity until further notice because of the coronavirus pandemic.