A piece from Emo de Medeiros’s series Vodunaut in the “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” exhibit in La Conciergerie in Paris, France. The smartphones within the cowry shell-decorated helmets feature videos taken on four different continents. Credit: Megan Fahrney/IPS
By Megan Fahrney
COTONOU, Benin, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)
Construction of the new Museum of Modern Art is underway in Cotonou, Benin’s largest city. The museum, along with three others being built throughout the country, are part of the Beninese government’s extensive plan to ramp up the nation’s tourism industry and preserve its culture. It is expected to open at the end of 2026.
A traveling exhibition entitled “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” serves as the precursor to the new modern art museum. Originally, the exhibition launched in Cotonou in 2022 under the name “Art of Benin From Yesterday and Today: From Restitution to Revelation.” It then traveled to Morocco, Martinique, and it is now in Paris.
At the heart of the initiatives is the repatriation of 26 pieces of stolen art to Benin from France in 2021. The returned royal artefacts were showcased alongside the contemporary art in the original exhibition in Cotonou, and they have remained in the nation’s reserves since.
The exhibition brings together over one hundred pieces of art by 42 artists from Benin and the Beninese diaspora.
Yassine Lassissi, director of visual arts at the Agency for the Development of the Arts and Culture (ADAC), said the exhibit unites works from both distinguished, well-known Beninese artists and emerging young creators.
The featured pieces represent a range of different forms and artistic mediums, Lassissi said.
“There is really a diversity of techniques,” said Lassissi. “We have paintings, sculptures, installations, multimedia techniques, drawings, and photography.”
Artist Emo de Medeiros showcases two works in the exhibition: a series of fixtures entitled Vodunaut and a short film by the name “Tigritude I.”
De Medeiros said “Tigritude I” was inspired by a quote by Nigerian activist and author Wole Soyinka, who said, “A tiger doesn’t proclaim his tigritude, he pounces.” De Medeiros explores the role of the African diaspora in uniting technology and spirituality through the piece.
“It features an alternative past,” said de Medeiros. “An alternative futurism that is very dystopic with the intervention of futuristic tigers.”
Upon the return of the exhibition to Cotonou from Paris this January, Lassissi said she hopes the artwork can continue to travel to new destinations until the opening of the museum in 2026, including potentially to the United States.
While in Cotonou, the exhibition drew more than 220,000 visitors in just sixty days of opening.
“It was really a historic event,” Lassissi said.
In addition to the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou, Benin is constructing the International Museum of Memory and Slavery in Ouidah, the Museum of the Epic of the Amazons and Kings of Dahomey in Abomey, and the International Museum of Arts and Civilizations of Vodun in Porto-Novo.
The majority of contemporary art pieces from the traveling exhibition will be housed in the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou. The 26 returned royal artefacts will be displayed in the new museum in Abomey.
The government plans to situate the Museum of Modern Art within an entirely new Cultural and Creative Neighborhood, which would also consist of the Franco-Beninese Institute, coworking spaces, the Art Gallery, the artisanal village, and artists’ residences.
The nation hopes the museums will strengthen its culture and tourism industry, which it projects to be the second pillar of its economy after agriculture.
De Medeiros said he believes Cotonou had been “sorely missing” a contemporary art museum.
“This was something that was necessary,” said de Medeiros. “I think this definitely should be a platform [where] Beninese artists can showcase their work to the world.”
Note: Megan Fahrney is a U.S. Fulbright fellow. The views expressed are solely the author’s and do not represent the views of the United States government.
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Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. Credit: UNDP
By Javier Bronfman
SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)
As many middle-income countries in the world, Chile finds itself at a critical juncture. The country has made significant progress over the past decades in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction, yet many structural challenges remain.
The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report highlights some of the most pressing issues facing the country today, answering a fundamental question: Why is it so hard to change? At the core of this question are institutional, cultural, and socio-economic factors that have made meaningful reforms difficult to implement.
Below, some important insights coming out of the report.
Institutional Difficulties
Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. The report emphasizes how the institutional structure of the country, and especially how the political parties and electoral system fosters a culture of revenge that promoted a constant blocking of the needed legislation and reforms.
Chile’s political system, characterized by a multi-party system with highly polarized factions, has increasing struggles to find common ground and reach agreements. Legislative deadlock arises when parties fail to collaborate, leading to stalled policies.
This institutional impasse is exacerbated by the requirement for supermajorities to pass key reforms, especially constitutional amendments, making it extremely challenging to address deep-rooted issues education, pension reform, or healthcare access.
Even though there is agreement on what reforms are needed, we observe a prevailing culture of revenge that ends up blocking most policy reform effort. Political discourse has become increasingly adversarial, making cooperation across political divides nearly impossible.
Instead of focusing on policy issues, political energy is often spent on character attacks and undermining the opposition. As a result, the public grows increasingly cynical, and trust in the political process erodes.
The inability to foster a culture of dialogue and mutual respect between political actors prevents any meaningful long-term change. Politicians are locked into short-term battles that perpetuate a cycle of revenge, further polarizing society and making structural reforms even harder to achieve, while people wait for things to change.
Difficulties in reconciling growth and inequality: a lack of Future Perspectives
The report also identifies a growing crisis of the future, a deep sense among many Chileans, particularly the youth, that the future is uncertain and precarious.
This “crisis of the future” is characterized by a lack of clear opportunities for advancement, whether in terms of social mobility, career prospects, or general quality of life.
In a society where inequality persists, many young people feel that the traditional paths to success, such as education and employment, no longer guarantee a better future. The rising cost of living, combined with the difficulty of finding secure, well-paying jobs, contributes to a sense of hopelessness.
This crisis is not just economic; it is also emotional and psychological, as more Chileans feel disconnected from the idea of progress and personal development.
This feeling of a “lost future” is also compounded by the existential threat of climate change, which is hitting Chile particularly hard. From severe droughts to devastating wildfires, the environmental crises further erode any sense of stability, reinforcing the feeling that the future is uncertain and full of risk.
A path forward
The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report offers a sobering analysis of why change is so hard in Chile today. Institutional blockages, a culture of retaliation in politics, social inequality, and a pervasive crisis of future perspectives all converge to create a challenging landscape for reform.
Yet, despite these difficulties, the report also points to the potential for new paths forward. Building a more inclusive, forward-looking society requires a shift in political culture, one, as well as economic models that prioritize equality and sustainability.
The challenges are daunting, but they are not insurmountable. By fostering greater political cooperation, addressing institutional inefficiencies, and creating a shared vision of a more equitable future, Chile has the opportunity to break through these barriers.
This will only be possible if the current political and electoral system are reformed towards one that fosters dialogue and long-term compromises. Fortunately, most political sectors agree on those needed reforms, will they be able to come to a national agreement, remains to be seen.
Javier Bronfman is Regional Adviser on SDG Integration
Source: UNDP
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Credit: Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNOHCR)
By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)
The United States, long described as a country built largely by immigrants, is planning to clamp down on migrants, refugees and asylum seekers entering the country—which averaged about 2.4 million in 2022-2023, according to the US Congressional Budget Office.
The incoming Trump administration is calling for “mass deportations” of mostly illegal aliens and undocumented workers.
As he plans to continue his hardline on migration policies, President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office a second time beginning January 20, has also pledged to end birthright citizenship for children born in the United States—which is guaranteed by the 14th amendment of the US constitution.
Trump has also warned Canada and Mexico that he will penalize both countries by imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods– unless they restrict the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs into the US.
During his last presidency (2017-2021), Trump triggered a global backlash when he singled out both Haiti and African nations as “shithole countries” eliciting protests from the 55-member African Union (AU). Trump also came under fire for his insulting statements that “all Haitians have AIDS” and Nigerians who visit the US “would never go back to their huts.”
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the good news is the toppling of the authoritarian Bashar administration in Syria. But the bad news is that millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey (estimated at more than three million) may be forced to return to Syria. So will Syrian refugees in Germany.
In a report December 14, the New York Times said no other European nation has welcomed as many Syrian refugees as Germany.
While more than 100,000 are now German citizens, the influx is blamed for helping to fuel the rise of the xenophobic far-right political party, Alternative for Germany, which routinely denigrates single young men from Syria and Afghanistan, the Times said.
The rising number of refugees and asylum seekers in the US have been triggered by a surge in political violence and authoritarianism in Venezuela and gang violence in Haiti.
Joseph Chamie, a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division, told IPS the world is in the midst of the Great Migration Clash, which is a bitter struggle between those who “want out” of their countries and those who want others to “keep out” of their countries.
More than a billion people would like to move permanently to another country and no less than a billion people say fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move into their countries, he pointed out.
“Powerful forces, including demographics, climate change, poverty, hunger, violence and armed conflict, are continuing to fuel the worldwide migration struggle. The supply of potential migrants in developing countries greatly exceeds the demand for migrants in developed countries”.
Increasing numbers of men, women and children who want out of their countries are resorting to irregular migration with many upon arrival claiming asylum, he said.
“The populations with the largest percentages wanting to emigrate are generally found in poor and violence ridden countries. In many of those nations, half or more of the populations say they would like to migrate permanently to another country, typically to Europe and North America”, said Chamie, author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.
According to Cable News Network (CNN) December 19, President-elect Donald Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan said plans are underway to deport undocumented immigrants on a large scale and that he’ll need funding from Congress to do so.
In a CNN interview, Homan said he will need a minimum of 100,000 beds to detain undocumented immigrants — more than doubling the 40,000 detention beds ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is currently funded for — and needs more ICE agents to carry out Trump’s mass deportation promises.
Homan also said the incoming administration plans to construct new deportation facilities in large metropolitan areas and bring back mass worksite immigration raids — a potentially significant development for some industries that rely on undocumented immigrants’ labor.
At a press conference outside the US Capitol last year, Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke (NY-09) joined New York City Public Advocate Jumaane D. Williams, members of New York’s Congressional delegation, and immigration activists, to call for federal action on an agenda to address the immediate asylum seeker crisis as well as reform immigration policy infrastructure for the long-term.
“We live in a country where everyone’s family has, at some point, chosen to come to these shores seeking freedom or a better life. That’s why we hear American politicians, and even Americans themselves, love to call themselves “a nation of immigrants”.
“It’s been nearly 250 years since the founding of our nation, and still, America has managed to maintain that self-image – whether through the forced migration of millions of African slaves, restrictive immigration laws based on unjust fears of “inferior” races, and nativist movements that encouraged immigrants to assimilate or leave”.
But the true reality of America’s immigrant heritage is much more complicated beyond myth, she said.
As a senior member of the House Homeland Security Committee, Co-Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Foreign Affairs and Immigration Task Force, and founding co-chair of the House Caribbean and House Haiti Caucuses, “I have seen the glaring inequities and civil rights violations plaguing our immigrants in this nation”.
“Let me be very clear: Our immigration system is broken, and I will not relent until our immigration system reflects a modern and equitable approach to this issue. The time has come for the values of our nation to be reflected in our immigration policies.”
“We need innovative policies and community support to reimagine the immigration system in a humane, just, and fair manner. I’m proud to stand here with my colleagues to demand additional federal aid to address the asylum seeker crisis.
“They came here fleeing everything from political and economic conflict to natural disasters and health crises. They came seeking a better life. They came and made this nation a better and more prosperous place. We are a nation of immigrants, founded by immigrants, so we must do better for our immigrants”, Clarke said.
In contrast to migrant-origin countries, Chamie said, life in the migrant-destination countries is a comparative dreamland, offering a wide array of opportunities, freedoms, rights, safeguards and security for migrants and their children.
The Great Migration Clash is complicated by the asymmetry of migration-related human rights. While everyone has the basic human right to leave their country and return, they do not have the right to enter another country, he pointed out.
Opposition to immigration is reflected in the rise of xenophobia, racism, hostility and violence toward immigrants. Far-right political leaders often depict migrants, refugees and asylum seekers as invaders, infiltrators, criminals, rapists and terrorists, and call for them to go home and to be deported.
The United Nations, the international agencies and governments, especially in destination countries, have been largely ineffective in addressing the Great Migration Clash, which is expected to continue throughout the 21st century, warned Chamie.
Speaking on International Migrants Day December 18, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “this is a day to remind ourselves of the challenges migrants can face — from prejudice and discrimination to outright violence and abuse, and the unimaginable cruelty of human trafficking”.
And, in a joint call to action, the UN Refugee Agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the UN Special Rapporteurs on Trafficking in Persons, alongside humanitarian organizations, called on States to protect refugees and migrants in distress-at-sea.
“The call is prompted by the rising casualties that we often talk about here. Each year, thousands of refugees and migrants risk deadly journeys in desperate attempts to escape violence, persecution, and poverty,” said Guterres.
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By Herbert Wulf
DUISBURG, Germany, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)
Donald Trump, president-elect of the USA, wants to end the Ukraine war within a day, as he has emphasized several times, but without saying how. Despite the brutal clashes on the ground in Ukraine, do negotiations now have a chance? Are we near to a “ripe moment” for negotiations?
The war continues unabated. There is no end in sight. Can we hope that Donald Trump will find a personal connection to Vladimir Putin to end this war? The phone call on 15 November between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin – the first telephone contact in two years – was sobering because Putin only reaffirmed his already known positions: He is ready for negotiations, but only on his terms. In other words, recognition of the “new territorial realities” and “consideration of Russian security interests”. In concrete terms, this would mean the handover of the four regions in eastern Ukraine, parts of which are occupied by Russia, and Crimea. Scholz called for negotiations with the aim of a “just and lasting peace”, which is primarily aimed at the withdrawal of Russian troops.
The Russian attack and Ukrainian defence have turned into a war of exhaustion, with current military advantages for Russia. The Russian strategy can be described as an escalation with the hope of a military victory. So far, Ukraine and its supporters have reacted with intense resistance. Western support has escalated with the delivery of more effective weapons and belief that victory is still possible. But increasingly a certain fatigue can be felt among them and Trump has made it clear that the massive support will no longer come from the USA.
What is the consequence for the Ukraine war, and what is the alternative to this battle with more and more deaths? Negotiations now? Is there a chance for peace without military victory? But neither side is ready yet for serious negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky was not happy about Scholz’s initiative and spoke of a policy of appeasement, also because the call counteracts Putin’s international isolation.
The American political scientist William Zartman speaks of the necessary “ripeness” of a conflict as a prerequisite for the success of negotiations. The concept of “ripe moments” centres, according to Zartman, on the adversaries’ perceptions of “hurting stalemates”. The willingness to negotiate increases when both sides realize that a military victory is not possible and that the military potential, i.e. soldiers and weapons, is no longer sufficient. The depressing conclusion is that today, even after almost 1,000 days of war, this situation does not exist in Russia or Ukraine. But the increasing logistical bottlenecks on both sides, the irreplaceable, irrecoverable and permanent losses are perhaps an indication that the conflict is in a process of maturing for negotiations. Even Russia, with its present territorial advances, seems not able to replace its casualties. The arrival of about 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia raises the question of whether the Kremlin can make up for its enormous losses.
Different scenarios
Four scenarios are conceivable, all of which are far from an ideal solution.
First, it is not inconceivable that the war, which has now lasted almost three years, with all its destruction and loss of life, will continue for another few years without an end in sight.
Second, Donald Trump could actually strike a deal with Vladimir Putin, presumably at the expense of Ukraine. Trump believes in deals. Russia would receive the parts of Ukraine it occupies, a demilitarized zone would be established along this border within Ukraine, Ukraine would receive security guarantees (from NATO, the United Nations, or a grouping of neutral states), and a peace treaty would be postponed until later. And “later” could mean decades without a peace treaty.
Third, one side could win militarily. Unlikely, but not completely out of the question. The Kremlin firmly believes in this possibility and is assured by its territorial gains in recent weeks. At the same time, the Russian leadership underestimated Ukraine’s will to resist at the beginning of the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and then had to significantly limit its war goals, the overthrow of the government in Kyiv and the integration of Ukraine into the Russian Federation.
The fourth scenario, a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. There are a number of conflicts that are in this state of having no real solution. In recent years, the situation in Korea has been referred to several times in order to consider a similar solution to the Ukraine war. This scenario is perhaps the most likely.
Ceasefire and a frozen conflict: The Korean solution
Of course, every conflict is different, and the respective conditions also differ. Nevertheless, there might be both conflict patterns and patterns of conflict resolution that could provide clues to Ukraine’s future. Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the US, pointed out parallels to the Korean War in an op-ed in the New York Times after a year of the Ukraine war. More than 70 years ago, in July 1953, an armistice agreement and the establishment of a demilitarized zone led to the freezing of this war and the division of Korea into two separate states.
Recently, Joseph S. Nye, one of the most influential political scientists in the USA, pointed to a “Korean solution” in an article entitled “What Would Victory in Ukraine Look Like?”. He writes: “If Ukraine defines victory as the return of all land that Russia has occupied since 2014, victory is not in sight. But if it aims to maintain its independence as a prosperous democracy linked to Europe, while reserving its right to the ultimate return of its territory, victory remains possible.” The Korean War also swayed back and forth from 1950 to 1953. Like what is happening now in Ukraine, neither the north nor the south, nor their respective supporters, were prepared to end the war quickly because of hopes of a military victory. The Korean armistice agreement of July 1953 stipulated the status quo ante with the division of the country at the 38th parallel. Korea is still a divided country, and the conflict is a frozen one. A peace treaty was never concluded and the so-called demilitarized zone along the border between the two states is one of the most militarized borders in the world. A permanent ceasefire was reached without a peace agreement.
Proponents of a “Korean solution” point out that the destruction and loss of life has ended, and that South Korea has now become a resilient democracy and emerging economic power. Democratic development and integration in Western Europe could then follow in the same way in Ukraine.
Critics of such a solution describe the Korean ceasefire as a “non-solution”. The Swiss historian Roland Popp, who researches at the Military Academy of the University ETH Zurich, writes that this Korean solution “also covers four decades of one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world, massacres of tens of thousands of civilians … or the assassination of the president by the director of the South Korean CIA in 1979.” And he points to the immense costs and uncertainties for Western Europe.
In 1953, a Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission was set up in Korea. In the more than seven decades of the existence of the armistice agreement there have been numerous military skirmishes on the border. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a threat, just as the North calls the South Korean military with its ally the United States a threat. Precisely for this reason, is it remarkable that this agreement has prevented a new war with heavy losses for more than seven decades. The consequences of a Korean solution for the situation in Europe would probably also mean, as in the case of the Korean peninsula, arms races as during the early days of the Cold War
Neutral states could also play an important role in ending the Ukraine war: for example, India, South Africa, Brazil or Switzerland. If neither side makes significant gains in Ukraine, a ceasefire would not be impossible. Presumably, the Ukrainians would not regain all the territories occupied by Russia. Russia could interpret the abandonment of its actual goal as a partial victory in order to save face. The conflict would be frozen. Not a nice result, but still the end of the war. A frozen conflict is better than a hot war. But the history of frozen wars shows that they can turn into hot wars again at any time. In the case of Ukraine, the imposition of an unfair solution could possibly result in Ukrainian partisan resistance.
A possible fifth scenario, a peace agreement that is binding under international law, with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, currently seems to be completely out of the question.
Related articles by this author:
– Agonizing over Europe’s Defence: Some Narratives are Getting Ahead of the Facts
– Boots on the ground
– Ten Take-Aways on Russia’s War and Five Ideas for the Future of Ukraine and Beyond
Herbert Wulf is a Professor of International Relations and former Director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC). He is presently a Senior Fellow at BICC, an Adjunct Senior Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg/Essen, Germany, and a Research Affiliate at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago, New Zealand. He serves on the Scientific Council of SIPRI.
This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from the original with their permission.
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The United Nations Security Council met on December 17 to discuss Syria’s transitional period following the end of Assad’s regime. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías
By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad came about following a series of coordinated offensive missions spearheaded by the Syrian opposition which resulted in the seizure of the capital city Damascus. In the days following the fall of Assad’s government, the Syrian Civil War has reached a phase of heightened insecurity, plunging Syria into a state of nationwide insecurity.
On December 7, the Syrian opposition, also known as the Southern Operation Room , led by the Islamic political organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, coordinated an offensive mission in the Rif Dimashq region of Syria, resulting in the Syrian Arab Army withdrawing their forces from Damascus. This, coupled with a concurrent offensive mission, led by the opposition and the Syrian National Army, resulted in the rebels seizing control of Damascus and Homs, marking the end of Assad’s regime in Syria.
For approximately 53 years, the Assad clan has exercised authoritarian rule over Syria, with an extensively documented history of mass incarcerations, executions, and violations of international humanitarian law.
According to a press release from the International Committee of the Red Cross (IRC), during Assad’s 13 year rule over Syria, there have been 35,000 documented cases of enforced disappearances, with accurate numbers likely being far larger.
In a press release issued by Amnesty International, Secretary General Agnès Callamard emphasized the brutality of the Assad family’s rule, saying, “Under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and before him his father Hafez al-Assad, Syrians have been subjected to a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused untold human suffering on a vast scale. This included attacks with chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, as well as murder, torture, enforced disappearance and extermination that amount to crimes against humanity.”
Following Assad’s departure, thousands of Syrian civilians flooded the streets to celebrate. World leaders also expressed their satisfaction with the end of Assad’s regime. In a televised speech, U.S. president Joe Biden said “At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized, tortured, and killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians. The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice.”
“The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure. Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored,” said United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Other nations such as France, Canada, and Germany, have indicated relief after Assad’s fall.
The United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) have reported plans to further monitor the developing situation in Syria and facilitate a peaceful transition of power. “Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region. The process of rebuilding Syria will be long and complicated and all parties must be ready to engage constructively,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in a social media statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter). The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, called for urgent talks in Geneva to discuss measures that will be taken to achieve an “orderly political transition.”
Following Assad’s removal from office, the overall security situation in Syria has become increasingly volatile. According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), clashes between armed coalitions remain regular in Syria, particularly in Aleppo and Al-Raqqa. Since the escalation of hostilities in late November, an estimated 1.1 million people in Syria have been internally displaced, particularly in Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Homs.
According to a report from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), civilian casualties in Syria have risen significantly since the escalation of hostilities, with hundreds having been killed or injured from November to December 8. North-west Syria has seen the most violence, with over 75 civilians having been killed, including 28 children and 11 women. At least 282 others have sustained critical injuries as well, including 106 children and 56 women.
Partners of the UN have discovered at least 52 minefields scattered across Syria in the first ten days of December. Syria’s healthcare system has seen considerable disruptions due to damage from warfare and looting. Hospitals have become overwhelmed due to the sheer influx of injured persons, with psychological distress and trauma being widespread, particularly in children. Movement restrictions and curfews have significantly hampered humanitarian missions.
Additionally, Israel has capitalized on the chaos in Syria, targeting the nation’s military assets. Syria has long been recognized as an ally of Iran, an enemy of Israel. On December 10, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched 480 airstrikes on military operations and equipment in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee the security of Israel as well as to achieve a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria. Despite the absence of Irani forces in Syria, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria.
Nadav Shoshani, a spokesperson for the IDF, denied reports that Israeli forces are to head toward Damascus, but confirmed that they were operating beyond the buffer zone in Syria. However, Shoshani stated that Israel will not interfere with the “internal events” occurring in Syria.
Political analysts have expressed concern for the future of the Middle East following the toppling of Assad’s regime. Marco Carnelos, the former Middle East peace process coordinator special envoy for Syria for the Italian government, described Assad’s ousting as “one of the biggest geopolitical tectonic shifts since the Sykes-Picot agreements in 1916 and the understandings reached at the end of the First World War,” adding that certain nations, such as Iraq and Algeria will have a mixed reaction, while others “will breathe a sigh of relief.”
Arab states, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will be particularly sensitive to further developments in Syria that are motivated by civilian dissidence, fearing that Syria could inspire similar reactions in other Middle Eastern sovereignties.
Sarah Leah Whitson, the Executive Director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), informed reporters that Arab states will “make efforts to contain HTS and build alliances with an HTS-government primarily guided by the hope that what emerges will be friendly to them and their interests” in the wake of this major transitional period of Syrian history.
Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University, states that the success of the Syrian opposition will likely “inspire jihadis in their own countries” to commit similar acts of rebellion and will also shine a light on the injustices committed by their governments.
The international community remains hopeful that the demise of Assad’s regime will bring forth an opportunity for positive development in Syria. Rima Farah, a lecturer at Northeastern University who studies the cultural and political history of the Middle East, opines that the end of Assad’s dictatorship provides the Syrian people with an indispensable opportunity to construct “a (democratic) state with a constitution that protects everyone.”
Political analysts have noted numerous parallels in the Syria situation and the protests that resulted in Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing from Bangladesh to India. Both the Syria and Bangladesh situations were born of civilian discontent with their governments, resulting in protests and acts of rebellion, causing the incumbent leader to abandon their offices and flee to another country.
This is a testament to the importance of the civilian role in policy and decision-making processes. Furthermore, these two developments show that the government must be held accountable for measures that do not serve everyone equally.
Thameen Al-Kheetan, a spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), told our correspondent that accountability is crucial in rebuilding Syria after 14 years of political instability. “This moment carries great hope as much as it raises huge challenges and legitimate uncertainty for Syrians. Accountability is one of the most important issues. Any transitional justice initiative should be inclusive, involve victims and ensure accountability for all past violations and abuses, those committed by the previous government and by all other parties to the conflict. To that end, the current authorities should ensure the preservation of evidence and facilitate the work of our Office as well as international mechanisms,” said Al-Kheetan.
Special Envoy Pederson added that it is imperative for Israeli bombardment and clashes between armed groups in Syria to stop to achieve substantial progress. “There is a real opportunity for change, but this opportunity needs to be grasped by the Syrians themselves and supported by the UN and the international community,” Pederson said.
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The port of Manzanillo, with the largest cargo movement in Mexico, is expanding its facilities without an environmental impact study. Credit: Colima Sostenible
By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)
The expansion of the port of Manzanillo, Mexico’s most important port in terms of cargo movement and located on the central Pacific coast, has major environmental impacts, as well as presenting climatic risks.
Work began on 23 November without the required environmental impact study, and includes the extension of the port, the construction of a gasoline storage terminal and a gas and steam power plant in the western state of Colima.“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”: Hugo Smith.
For independent expert Hugo Smith, the impact is “tremendous”, as the area hosts significant economic activity, such as agriculture, livestock, salt flats and artisanal fisheries.
“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”, he told IPS from the port city of Tampico, in the northeastern state of Tamaulipas.
The specialist stressed the lack of adequate planning, because “in other places they ask for climate forecasts, in this case there has to be very well-planned works, they have to be monitored. There is talk of sustainability as a political slogan, but there are no indicators.”
The expansion includes a storage and distribution facility of the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) with a capacity for 3.7 million barrels of fuel, another maritime terminal with a capacity to move five million containers, and roadways.
The port site currently covers 437 hectares, housing 19 docks and warehouses.
With the work, due to be completed in 2030, the port area will be extended to 1,800 hectares in the second basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon. There are four regulating basins which capture the rain and separate the lagoon by roads and sluice gates.
With a public-private investment of US$3,480 million, the Mexican government is seeking to turn the port of the coastal city of Manzanillo into the largest in Latin America and the 15th largest globally, by doubling its total capacity.
The expansion is part of a scheme to modernise 10 Mexican federal ports.
The area of Manzanillo, a city in the western Mexican state of Colima, will be impacted in the long term by sea level rise, including the port area that is being expanded and is on the left side of the map depicted. Credit: Climate Central
Important habitat
President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office on 1 October, has maintained the plans of her predecessor and political mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), to revive old projects. The expansion of Manzanillo dates back to the Felipe Calderón administration (2006-2012) and López Obrador formally took it up again in 2019, but without advancing its development.
The city of Manzanillo, with 159,000 people and more than 800 kilometres west of Mexico City, is surrounded by the lagoons of Valle de las Garzas and Cuyutlán, which are vital to the area’s environment because of the animal and plant species they shelter.
The governmental National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Conabio) lists as ecosystem values the presence of salt cultivation, artisanal fishing, mangroves, native and migratory birds, as well as crocodiles and turtles, in the 7,200-hectare Cuyutlán lagoon, located parallel to the Pacific coast.
The ecosystem holds 90% of the wetlands in the state of Colima and is registered by Conabio as a priority marine and hydrological region.
In fact, in the last decade the agency warned that the port expansion could “potentially increase water levels and alter important habitats for nesting and feeding of organisms such as birds.”
The works will require, it said, “the opening of new channels of communication with the sea, as well as deeper navigation channels, which could provoke more severe changes in water levels and circulation.”
Hence the importance of the environmental impact assessment, in order to know the repercussions and the mitigation measures envisaged.
In 2017, then president Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018) issued a call for an environmental assessment, but it is ignored if it was carried out. In any case, the works were never undertaken.
Panoramic view of the Cuyutlán Lagoon, which has four basins. The expansion of the port of Manzanillo began in basin 2, with serious environmental impacts. Basins 3 and 4 are considered wetlands of international importance for their natural diversity. Credit: Conabio / Semar
Two lagoons in danger
The lagoon consists of four lagoon basins, the last two of which are adjacent to the area of the expansion.
These are sites of international importance since 2011 under the Convention on Wetlands, as they support vulnerable endangered species and threatened ecological communities; populations of plant and animal species important for maintaining the biological diversity of the region.
It is also home to some 20,000 waterfowl and migratory birds, as well as providing food for fish and a nesting ground for turtles.
To the north of the port is the 268-hectare Valle de las Garzas lagoon, which suffers from high levels of sediment due to soil loss from the watershed and urban activities, and has high levels of nutrients due to discharges from nearby treatment plants and human activities. It is therefore in worse condition than the Cuyutlán lagoon.
Despite its condition, the local environmental authorities have not yet declared it a protected area. Meanwhile, the fourth basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon is about to receive this status, although it does not seem that this protection will impede the already initiated port expansion project.
The area also faces climate threats. Between 2030 and 2050, the coastal areas around Manzanillo and inside the Cuyutlán lagoon will be flooded by rising sea levels, according to forecasts by the international scientific platform Climate Central.
In addition, the port area is exposed to increased flooding from rainfall, according to climate studies by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
Dead mangroves on the shore of the Cuyutlán lagoon, the most important wetland in Mexico’s western Pacific. Credit: Conabio / Semar
Inconsistency
Since 2023, the Ministry of the Navy, which manages the federal ports, has been implementing the Port Decarbonisation Strategy, which aims to reduce emissions in operations.
In what is the second-largest economy of Latin America, 227.75 million tonnes were handled between January and October in the 103 ports of the National Port System (SPN). A figure 7.5% lower than that of the same period in 2023.
Manzanillo handled 30.77 million tonnes – almost 1% less than in the same period of 2023 – up to last November.
In 2022, the 36 ports of the 18 SPN administrations emitted 1.33 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, almost double the level of 2021, according to the national strategy. Carbon equivalent measures pollution in reference to CO2. Manzanillo released 30% more emissions into the atmosphere than in 2022.
Measurements involve the activity of cargo ships, vessels parked in port, cargo handling equipment, locomotives and cargo trucks, as well as the operation of terminals, operators, service providers, shipping lines, shipping agents, customs, land transport and rail companies.
The Decarbonisation Strategy stipulates emission reductions of 25 % by 2030 and 45 % by 2050, but only sets out general measures, such as planning resilient infrastructure, harmonising management and planning instruments, such as concession titles, master development programmes and operating rules.
It also sets out how to identify, describe and programme the implementation of low-emission energy policies.
Port sustainability includes the consideration of environmental, economic and social aspects, such as pollution, dredging of nearby areas, return on investment and job creation.
But the installation of more hydrocarbon terminals, fuel storage facilities and a gas-fired power plant contradict the strategy’s goals. Official publicity presents it as sustainable because of its gas consumption, despite the fact that it is a highly polluting fossil fuel.
Moreover, the 2021-2026 master programme for port development does not address environmental considerations.
As is the case in the rest of Latin America, no Mexican port appears on the project map of the World Ports Sustainability Programme, an association that brings together the world’s largest environmentally friendly facilities.
Expert Smith pointed to a greater focus on ship operations to improve port sustainability.
“Ships are increasingly environmentally constrained. Ports do not provide renewable energy. Decarbonisation must focus on ships and the biggest polluters are container ships,” he said.
Malagasy woman preparing fish on the beach of Lavanono in the far south of Madagascar. The IPBES Transformative Change Report suggests that principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.
By Busani Bafana
WINDHOEK, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)
Nature is at a tipping point. With human activity having pushed up to 1 million plant and animal species close to extinction, securing sustainable development and halting global biodiversity collapse is no longer just an option but a requisite for human wellbeing.
A new report by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) clarifies that only transformative change can reverse the biodiversity crisis and reset humanity’s relationship with nature for just and sustainable futures.
The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, also known as the Transformative Change Report, launched this week during the 11th IPBES Plenary session being held in Namibia, has a stark warning: biodiversity decline is galloping ahead, whipped up by humanity’s disconnect from and dominance over nature, coupled with the inequitable concentration of power and wealth. The prioritization of short-term individual and material gains, the report argues, has also led to the destruction of the fabric of life.
Change and Act Now
The report highlights the need for addressing biodiversity loss through what the authors describe as transformative change—fundamental systemwide shifts in views, including ways of thinking, knowing, and seeing; structures, such as ways of organizing, regulating, and governing; and practices, including ways of doing, behaving, and relating. According to the report, dominant worldviews, structures, and practices have played a significant role in accelerating biodiversity loss. The findings suggest that exploring alternative approaches could contribute to reducing biodiversity loss and achieving a more just and sustainable future.
Prof. Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES
Prof. Arun Agrawal (India & USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES
Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES
“Transformative change for a just and sustainable world is urgent,” says Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA), co-chair of the assessment with Arun Agrawal (India & USA) and Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). “There is a closing window of opportunity to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and to prevent triggering the potentially irreversible decline and the projected collapse of key ecosystem functions,” she added.
O‘Brien cites that under current trends, there is a serious risk of crossing several irreversible biophysical tipping points, including die-off of low-altitude coral reefs, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, and loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.
Justifying the urgency of transformative change, the report notes that past and current conservation approaches have failed to stop the loss of the variety of animals, plants, fungi, and microorganisms. The cost of inaction is high, the report warns.
The report estimates that the cost of addressing biodiversity loss and the decline of nature around the world could double if actions are delayed even by a decade. The report also examines potential opportunities for businesses and innovation through sustainable economic approaches, including nature-positive economies, ecological economies, and Mother-Earth-centric economies.
But the report offers hope. Implementing sustainable solutions to reverse biodiversity loss could generate business opportunities estimated at more than USD 10 trillion in business while supporting 395 million jobs globally by 2030, the report says, stating that transformative change can be created by everyone. In addition, governments can enable transformative change by fostering policies and regulations to benefit nature.
Meeting Sustainable and Biodiversity Goals
The report builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change. The latest assessment, prepared over three years, was produced by more than 100 leading experts from 42 countries.
Agrawal says promoting and accelerating transformative change is essential to meeting the 23 action-oriented targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030 and for achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.
“Transformative change is rarely the outcome of a single event, driver, or actor,” says Agrawal. “It is better understood as changes that each of us can create and multiple cascading shifts that trigger and reinforce one another, often in unexpected ways.”
While addressing the underlying causes of biodiversity loss is challenging as it is complex, it can be done, argues Garibaldi, co-chair of the assessment. He says a new transformation on the scale of the industrial revolution is needed—but one that conserves and restores the biodiversity of the planet rather than depleting it.
The cover of the Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. Credit: IPBES
Case studies of initiatives around the world with transformative potential show that positive outcomes for diverse economic and environmental indicators can happen in a decade or less.
The Transformative Change Report highlights that countries and people can advance deliberate transformative change for global sustainability by conserving places of value to people and nature that exemplify biocultural diversity. Furthermore, people can drive systematic change and mainstream biodiversity in the sectors most responsible for nature’s decline.
“The agriculture and livestock, fisheries, forestry, infrastructure and urban development, mining, and fossil fuel sectors contribute heavily to the worst outcomes for nature,” the report notes. “Transformative approaches such as multifunctional and regenerative land use can promote a variety of benefits for nature and people.”
Inclusivity Key to Nature Transformation
While researching the report, the authors assessed 850 separate “visions of a sustainable world for nature and people,” but found many did not challenge the status quo.
“The diversity of societies, economies, cultures, and peoples means that no single theory or approach provides a complete understanding of transformative change or how to achieve it,” said O’Brien. “Many knowledge systems, including Indigenous and local knowledge, provide complementary insights into how it occurs and how to promote, accelerate, and navigate the change needed for a just and sustainable world.”
At the launch, on Wednesday, December 18, Agrawal said every global problem is often, in essence, unfolding in local context, and what is seen as a global problem is closely and intimately connected to Indigenous knowledge relevant to a local context. He said, for example, adaptation efforts relevant in the Arctic would not be relevant in tropical forests, and emissions that are caused by what is happening in agriculture are not relevant to emissions caused by coal mines or large factories.
“All of these things that we consider as global problems, we need to think about the local particularity of the problem that gets aggregated into a global problem,” said Agrawal.
Coordinating lead author Rafael Calderon Contreras added that humanity was facing the most pressing and challenging crisis in history and that it was critical to learn from Indigenous communities on solutions to tackling the biodiversity crisis.
“What we found in our assessment is that we can learn from each other and that everyone has a role to play in achieving this vision of transformation that the assessment is pushing,” said Contreras.
Visions for living in harmony with nature are more likely to succeed when they emerge from inclusive, rights-based approaches and stakeholder processes and when they incorporate collaboration for change across sectors, the authors suggest.
Principles and Obstacles
The report says embracing the principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.
“The impacts of actions and resources devoted to blocking transformative change, for example through lobbying by vested interest groups or corruption, currently overshadow those devoted to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity,” says O’Brien.
Garibaldi says studies have suggested that increasing biodiversity, protecting natural habitats, and reducing external inputs in agricultural landscapes can enhance crop productivity, for instance, by enhancing pollinator abundance and diversity.
Other strategies that can be used to advance transformative change include changing economic systems for nature and equity, for example, eliminating subsidies that contribute to biodiversity loss. Global public explicit subsidies to sectors driving nature’s decline ranged from USD 1.4 trillion to USD 3.3 trillion per year in 2022, and total public funding for environmentally harmful subsidies has increased by 55 percent since 2021.
It is estimated that between USD 722 billion and USD 967 billion per year is needed to manage biodiversity and maintain ecosystem integrity. Currently, USD 135 billion per year is spent on biodiversity conservation, leaving a biodiversity funding gap of up to USD 824 billion per year.
Transforming governance systems to be inclusive, accountable, and adaptive will promote transformation, the report says, noting that shifting societal views and values to recognize human-nature interconnectedness was strategic for the world to act with haste.
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The conference will address new and emerging issues, and the urgent need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals, and support reform of the international financial architecture.FfD4 will assess the progress made in the implementation of the Monterrey Consensus, the Doha Declaration and the Addis Ababa Action agenda.
By Michael Jarvis
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)
As the global community races to close the staggering $4.2 trillion financing gap needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) emerges as a crucial juncture.
Scheduled for June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Seville, Spain, this conference is not merely another gathering of world leaders and finance ministers. It represents a pivotal opportunity to reshape the global financial architecture and address critical issues such as climate financing, tax governance, and debt relief.
Yet, one vital partner in this process—philanthropy—remains largely underutilized. As governments navigate competing priorities and the private sector remains hesitant to fully commit to the development agenda, philanthropic funders have a unique role to play in ensuring that FfD4 delivers on its promise of equitable and sustainable outcomes.
Our recent report titled “Setting the Global Agenda for Tax, Debt, and International Aid through 2035,” underscores this urgency. The report calls on funders to engage actively in the FfD4 process and outlines key ways they can contribute to its success.
One vital contribution is widening stakeholder participation. Philanthropic funders can ensure that Global South civil society organizations (CSOs) have a seat at the table by providing financial support for their participation. The FfD4’s inclusive intergovernmental format, managed by the United Nations, is unique in offering Global South countries an equal footing, but to influence the eventual outcomes you need to be in the negotiating rooms.
Earlier this month, government representatives began narrowing down their wishlist in discussions in New York, but it is expensive to send delegations. Funders can facilitate the engagement of Global South governments in negotiations by financially supporting their involvement. This helps amplify their voices and ensures that systemic reforms reflect their realities and needs.
Additionally, philanthropy can bridge underfunded areas by supporting innovative research and advocacy efforts, particularly in tax reform and debt governance. For example, among the proposals up for debate is creation of a tax on the super wealthy backed by a global asset registry, a concept built out with philanthropic support. Filling these thematic gaps is essential to assuring that FfD4 sets an ambitious agenda for the decade to come.
Another critical action is for funders to make public commitments aligning their strategies with the FfD4 agenda backed by new investments, so inspiring others and encouraging donor accountability. The real test of FfD4’s impact, however, will come in the follow-up phase. Continued funding from philanthropic actors will be critical to ensuring the promises made at the conference are translated into concrete actions.
At the heart of the FfD4 agenda are issues that demand urgent and transformative action. The global debt crisis, for example, has left many developing nations in a financial stranglehold, threatening their economic stability and ability to invest in health, education, and infrastructure. A UN-mandated legal framework for debt resolution and targeted relief measures could provide a lifeline, but these require sustained advocacy and pressure from all quarters, including philanthropic actors.
Similarly, taxation and illicit financial flows (IFFs) remain contentious issues. Developing countries lose an estimated $1 trillion annually to tax avoidance and evasion, undermining their ability to fund essential services. Philanthropy can support research and policy advocacy to ensure that Global South perspectives are at the forefront of these reforms.
Finally, the conference will revisit the role of private financing in closing the SDG funding gap. While leveraging private capital has shown mixed results, the philanthropic community can play a critical role in identifying and promoting alternative, effective solutions.
While philanthropy has often been a silent partner in the Financing for Development process, this is the moment to step forward and make a tangible and long-lasting impact. For funders, FfD4 is not just an event—it is a call to action. It is an opportunity to amplify the voices of the marginalized, push for systemic change, and hold governments and institutions accountable. The philanthropic community must seize this moment to drive reforms that prioritize equity, transparency, and sustainability.
The clock is ticking. The world is watching. And philanthropy must rise to the occasion.
Michael Jarvis is the Executive Director of The Trust, Accountability, and Inclusion (TAI) Collaborative. The TAI Collaborative is a network of philanthropic funders committed to advancing a world where power and resources are distributed more equitably, communities are informed and empowered, and governments and the corporate sector act with integrity for the good of people and planet.
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Togo's President, Faure Gnassingbé
By Promise Eze
ABUJA, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)
In May 2024, Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbé signed a new constitution, transitioning the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system. Under this new framework, lawmakers are responsible for electing the president.
Supporters of the reforms argue that this transition diminishes Faure Gnassingbé’s powers by making the presidency a largely ceremonial role. Human Rights Minister Yawa Djigbodi Tségan claimed the changes would improve democracy in the country. However, the opposition has called it a “constitutional coup,” accusing Gnassingbé of using it to entrench his power by removing term limits.
The new constitution extends presidential terms from five to six years and establishes a single-term limit. However, the nearly 20 years that Gnassingbé has already been in office will not be included in this count.
The reforms were passed by a parliament dominated by the ruling Union pour la République (UNIR) party, led by Gnassingbé. Despite public opposition, the president implemented the amendments after his party secured a majority in parliament.
A History of Power and Repression
The Gnassingbé family’s dominance began with President Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who seized power in 1967, just a few years after Togo gained independence from France. Eyadéma ruled for 38 years, during which he removed presidential term limits in 2002. His regime was marked by severe repression and allegations of human rights abuses, including violent crackdowns on protests and political assassinations.
Human rights organizations like Amnesty International frequently condemned Eyadéma’s government for its brutality, but Eyadéma dismissed these claims as part of a denigratory campaign against him, insisting that true Togolese democracy was based on security and peace.
After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, his son, Faure Gnassingbé, was installed as president by the military, sparking widespread protests and violence. Faure has since won disputed elections in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Despite reinstating term limits in 2019, they were not applied retroactively, allowing Faure to remain in office until at least 2030.
Gnassingbé’s Constitutional Façade
Many critics argue that the recent constitutional changes are simply a cover for Faure Gnassingbé to maintain control. Under the new system, the president will serve a largely ceremonial role, while real power will rest with the “president of the council of ministers,” a position that is expected to go to Gnassingbé himself.
In the period leading up to the vote in April, the government took measures to restrict civil liberties, including banning protests, arresting opposition leaders, and preventing the Catholic Church from deploying election observers. Foreign journalists were also barred from reporting on the events.
Abdul Majeed Hajj Sibo, a political analyst based in Ghana, told IPS that the reforms are a façade designed to give the illusion of democracy.
“Even the elections that keep bringing Faure back to power are manipulated. This constitutional façade is meant to deceive the Togolese people into believing there is change, but nothing has really changed,” Sibo said.
Faure’s rule is part of a broader trend of “strongman politics” in Africa, argues Sizo Nkala, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg. He notes that, like many other African leaders, Faure has used a combination of patronage, violence, ethnic favoritism, sham elections, and bogus constitutional amendments to stay in power.
“This is a common playbook used by dictators across the continent,” Nkala said.
Nkala posits that while Togo has effectively switched to a parliamentary system, similar to South Africa, the environment in which the elections take place makes all the difference.
“South Africa is a vibrant, multiparty democracy where elections are reasonably free and fair. This is why the African National Congress (ANC), which has governed the country since 1994, lost its majority in the May elections and was forced to form a coalition government with other parties. Moreover, South African legislators do follow their party lines but also enjoy a degree of autonomy. The same cannot be said of the Togolese parliament and electoral process. Elections are rigged frequently, and parliamentarians do not have the latitude to act according to their own convictions. Unlike in South Africa, there is no real separation of powers between the executive and legislature in Togo, which has given rise to the dictatorship and authoritarianism we see today,” he added.
Opposition Under Fire
The opposition in Togo has long faced a harsh political environment. Protests demanding democratic reforms have often been met with government crackdowns. After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, Faure’s rise to power was met with mass protests that led to the deaths of up to 500 people, and many were displaced.
The slogan “Faure Must Go” has become a rallying cry, but government crackdowns have consistently stifled opposition efforts.
“The last thing the Gnassingbé regime will want to see is a formidable opposition outfit; hence it has thrown spanners in the operations of the opposition. This is part of the reason the opposition won only 5 out of the 113 seats in parliament in the April elections,” Nkala told IPS.
He adds: “The Togolese opposition has struggled to mount a unified challenge to the Gnassingbé regime because they work in a very difficult environment where their activists could be subjected to violence, jailed arbitrarily, abducted, or even killed without recourse to justice for merely exercising their constitutional rights of dissent, freedom of association, and speech.”
Analysts also say that cracks and disputes among the Togolese opposition are also a limiting factor.
“The opposition needs to unite and fight as a single bloc, but they have been unable to do so,” Sibo told IPS. Boycotts of elections by opposition factions in the past have only strengthened Gnassingbé’s grip on power, he added.
Kwesi Obeng, a socio-political and inclusive governance expert at the University of Ghana, told IPS that it would be difficult for the opposition to make any headway not just because of its fragmentation but also because a tiny political and economic elite with very close ties to the Gnassingbé family has effectively captured the state of Togo and all its institutions. This dominance over state power and resources, he says, has made it very difficult for any group to break through.
He argued that this situation has resulted in wealth being concentrated in the hands of a few individuals.
“Many people live below the poverty line. In fact half of the Togolese living in rural areas—about 58%—really live in poverty. Additionally, about a quarter of those living in urban areas also live below the poverty line. So, you have a significant portion of the population living precarious lives, with barely any jobs, income, or access to basic services,” Obeng said.
Despite the ruling party’s dominance, the resilience of the opposition shows that there are still those willing to risk their lives for change, Nkala notes, adding that the opposition’s persistence, despite the odds, is a testament to the determination of millions of Togolese people who want to see an end to the Gnassingbé dynasty.
International Response and France’s Role
France has maintained a close relationship with the Gnassingbé family, which has fueled resentment in Togo. After Faure’s re-election in February 2020—an election condemned as rigged by the opposition—France sent him a congratulatory letter, sparking controversy.
Critics, like Sibo, argue that France continues to support the autocratic regime for economic reasons.
Former French President Jacques Chirac once referred to President Gnassingbé Eyadéma as a “friend to France and a personal friend,” despite the human rights abuses associated with his regime.
Sibo believes this loyalty to the Gnassingbé dynasty has contributed to France’s reluctance to challenge the regime.
“As long as it serves their interests, France will turn a blind eye to the atrocities committed by the Gnassingbé family,” Sibo said.
Obeng agrees with Sibo’s views. “France runs the port, a major contributor to the Togolese GDP, and many major businesses in the country are partly French-owned. Therefore, I think the French government is not interested in unsettling the status quo regarding the governance system and structure in Togo. With Sahelian countries having driven the French out of that part of the continent, France now has very little foothold. As a result, they are reluctant to destabilize a country like Togo, which could potentially join the ranks of nations that have expelled the French from their territory.”
Efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) to address Togo’s political issues have been limited. ECOWAS’s failure to act on the situation in Togo damages its reputation as a leader in promoting regional stability and development, analysts say.
In 2015, ECOWAS attempted to introduce a two-term presidential limit across its member states, but this was blocked by Togo and Gambia.
Experts like Nkala are of the opinion that these organizations lack the legal authority to intervene effectively and that reforms are needed to give them real powers to enforce democratic protocols in member states.
Concerns are mounting over President Faure Gnassingbé’s role in the US-Africa Business Summit. Observers have pointed out that Western nations and organizations often do not authentically champion democracy in Africa. Critics claim these entities tend to prioritize their own agendas, often siding with questionable governments instead.
The Way Forward
With Faure’s party holding a strong majority in parliament, it seems unlikely that the regime will fall anytime soon, critics told IPS.
Nkala believes that unless Gnassingbé loses control of the military or faces a significant challenge from within his own party, political change is unlikely in the near future.
“The military is key to Faure’s power, and as long as they remain loyal, he will continue to rule Togo,” Nkala said.
Obeng says that as long as the elite continue to control the state machinery, including organizing elections, it will be very difficult for the opposition to unseat the government.
He added: “The opposition has made it clear that the elections were rigged, which is why some members chose not to participate. The Togolese opposition has already published its verdict that the elections were manipulated, and we need to take their charges seriously.”
However, Sibo remains hopeful that with greater unity, the opposition could eventually challenge the regime. “The opposition must focus on building a unified front,” he said. “If they can do that, there is still a chance for change.”
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