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The United Nations expects an increase in elder abuse because of the ageing populations: the global population of people aged 60 years and older will more than double, from 900 million in 2015 to 2 billion in 2050. Credit: Maricel Sequeira/IPS

By María Isabel Cartón
MADRID, Jun 14 2022 (IPS)

1 in 6 people over 60 years of age –nearly 141 million people globally– suffers from abuse, according to World Health Organization (WHO) estimates.

The World Elder Abuse Awareness Day (WEAAD) (June 15th), aims to raise awareness and eradicate this problem that affects both developing and developed countries.

WHO defines elder abuse as "a single, or repeated act, or lack of appropriate action, occurring within any relationship, where there is an expectation of trust, which causes harm or distress to an older person." It can take various forms: physical, psychological or emotional, sexual, financial abuse or neglect

WHO defines elder abuse as “a single, or repeated act, or lack of appropriate action, occurring within any relationship, where there is an expectation of trust, which causes harm or distress to an older person.” It can take various forms: physical, psychological or emotional, sexual, financial abuse or neglect.

The lack of accurate data is one of the symptoms of this problem, but a 2017 review of 52 studies in 28 countries from diverse regions provided the pooled prevalence of different types of abuse:

– Psychological abuse: 11.6%

– Financial abuse: 6.8%

– Neglect: 4.2%

– Physical abuse: 2.6%

– Sexual abuse: 0.9%

 

The abusers

This violence happens at home and at institutions such as nursing homes and long-term care facilities. A staggering fact: 90% of abusers are family (adult children, spouses and partners).

But anybody can fit the abuser profile: relatives, strangers, friends, health care providers, public and private institutions… Whoever interacts with older people, especially with those who suffer a severe disability (i.e. dementia), can easily become abusers.

 

Why is that?

HelpAge International points out ageism. “Stereotypes about older people can be used to justify elder abuse or minimise its impact. In many ways, elder abuse is the most harmful expression of societal ageism”.

The normalization of this violence is a mask that makes it invisible or even an accepted or necessary conduct. So, how can we even identify it? Here are some examples:

Physical abuse: hitting, pushing and restraining by physical (tying them to furniture) and chemical means (medication). Also sexual abuse.

Emotional or psychological abuse: use of hurtful words, yelling, threatening or repeatedly ignoring the older adult. Isolation, infantilization and victimization are also forms of emotional abuse.

Neglect occurs when the caregiver does not try to respond to the older adult’s physical, emotional and social needs (housing, food, medication or access to adequate health care, including aspects such as therapeutic cruelty and therapeutic nihilism).

Abandonment (leaving an older adult who needs help alone without planning for his/ her care) is also a type of neglect.

Financial abuse happens when someone steals money or belongings from an older adult (retirement, Social Security benefits, etc.), uses his/her bank accounts or credit cards or changes names on a bank account, insurance policy, house title or will without permission.

 

Longevity and inequality

Inequality determines the way we age and is also in the roots of elder abuse.

According to a 2008 report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), “the increase in life expectancy” was concentrated “in populations continuing on to higher education” and diminished “in the groups having high school diplomas or less”.

In the OECD countries, a 25 year male with a university degree may live 7,5 years more than another male with lower education level. For women, the difference is 4,6 years. It goes without saying that inequality in education and any other development indicator is worse in the “emerging economies”.

Gender is also an inequality and abuse trigger, especially at old age. In 2015, 54% of people above 60 were women (61% within those aged 80 or more). Although female life expectancy is higher, their life quality is worse because of poor health and higher rates of abuse.

During their lifetimes, women suffer marginalization and poverty. Income inequality, differences in education, health services and job market explain why many women have no retirement benefits or lower ones. Moreover, they are the principal caregivers to children and other old people, often without any compensation.

 

The gap between the narratives and the facts

The United Nations expects an increase in elder abuse because of the ageing populations: the global population of people aged 60 years and older will more than double, from 900 million in 2015 to 2 billion in 2050.

During the COVID-19 pandemic rates of elder abuse have increased. Both the poor access to adequate health services and the restriction on social interactions have severely affected the elderly.

Neither population ageing nor elder abuse are new. There are countless initiatives, campaigns, plans and organizations around the globe trying to bring ageing into the public agenda, but real transformations are yet to come.

This year, WEAAD coincides with two important events. The first is the United Nations Decade of Healthy Ageing (2021-2030), aimed to align the goals of the 2030 Agenda and the ageing agenda.

 

The Decade addresses four areas for action:

– Change how we think, feel and act towards age and ageing;

– Ensure that communities foster the abilities of older people.

– Deliver person-centred integrated care and primary health services responsive to older people.

– Provide access to long-term care for older people who need it.

The second event is the 20th milestone of the Second World Assembly on Ageing and the fourth review and appraisal of the implementation of the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (MIPAA).

UN believes that “an international legal instrument for older persons would advance the implementation and accountability of MIPAA”, and admits the “uneven progress” in its implementation and “the absence of an international standard on the rights of older persons, gaps between policy and practice, and the mobilization of necessary human and financial resources”.

 

When the conquest becomes the problem

Between 2015 and 2030 the world population aged 60 or over is expected to grow by 56%, reaching 1.4 billion people in 2030 (16,5% of the total population).

By then, “older persons are expected to account for over 25 percent of the population in Europe and Northern America, 17 percent in Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 6 percent in Africa” (UNDP).

The mainstream narrative that labels groups of population as a nuisance —migrants, women, indigenous people, the elderly… the list is open— denying their humanity and emphasizing that they put “the system” at risk, makes it possible for this violence to be perpetuated.

Moreover, in the current context of questioning the role of the State and the public sector, it is worth asking whether it is possible to guarantee good treatment of the elderly when what is at stake is no longer the viability of the systems of health and social protection necessary for a long-lived population, but even its mere existence for anyone.

María Isabel Cartón is a Spanish journalist, specialized on ageing issues. She is an active member of Asociación Jubilares, an NGO that promotes the social participation of senior citizens, and works within the WHO Global Network for Age-friendly Cities and Communities

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Lawrence Akena had never dreamt of owning a cow. BRAC believes ownership of assets like livestock can get people out of extreme poverty. Credit: Wambi Michael/IPS

By Wambi Michael
Oyam & Gulu, Uganda , Jun 14 2022 (IPS)

Lawrence Akena was born 32 years ago with microcephaly. Because of his neurological condition, he didn’t go to school or benefit from skills training.

The exclusion meant Akena survived on handouts and was one of the young persons living in extreme poverty in Kamdini sub-county, Uganda.

“He would leave home early morning for Kamdini corner just to loiter in the township. At times he would spend nights there until I picked him (up and brought him) back,” says Akena’s mother, Lili Iram.

Akena’s condition, microcephaly, affects children born with a small head or a head that stops growing after birth. It can result in epilepsy, cerebral palsy, learning disabilities, hearing loss and vision problems.

The 76-year-old mother says things have changed now. BRAC, the largest NGO in the Global South, selected him among persons with disabilities to benefit from Disability Inclusive Graduation (DIG) project.

BRAC Uganda, the National Union of Women with Disabilities of Uganda (NUWODU), and Humanity & Inclusion (HI, formerly Handicap International) have implemented DIG in selected districts in once war-torn Northern Uganda since 2018. UK Aid has funded DIG through the Inclusive Futures initiative, Cartier Philanthropy and Medicor Foundation, and Sight Savers.

DIG is designed to ensure that Graduation’s four key elements, including meeting people’s basic needs, providing training and assets for income generation, financial literacy and savings support, and social empowerment, are adapted to ensure inclusion for persons with disabilities.

BRAC supported Akena with primary livelihood assets like goats, cattle, pigs, and cash for petty trade. Humanity & Inclusion and NUWODU ensured that DIG’s services, including coaching, were effectively designed to support people with disabilities.

Ownership and control mean that people with disabilities, like Akena, can create a pathway out of extreme poverty and become socially included.

“DIG has helped us a lot. We did not own a cow. We didn’t have goats and chickens. Akena is (now) always at home looking after them,” Iran says when asked about how the program affected her son.

As Iran describes her son’s transformation, Akena enters the loading shed to set his goats free so they can graze alongside two brown zebu cows. According to Iram, he suffered a major setback when his pigs died of African Swine Fever last year.

But when IPS visited Iceme village, where he lives with his mother, Akena had bought another pig which now lives in the pigsty he constructed.

BRAC Project Assistant, Derick Baguma visits Lawrence Akena and his mother, Lili Iram, to assist with their farming ventures. Credit: BRAC

By owning the household assets like cows, goats, and chickens, Akena is graduating from the extremely poor,” says Derick Baguma, a Project Assistant with BRAC.

Baguma has provided household-based coaching to persons with disabilities in Iceme and other villages in Oyam’s Kamdini sub-county to record their assets.

Asked by IPS whether he had witnessed any changes, he said the difference was visible.

“This is not how this household was. And the way Akena appears now is not the same as he was. Do you see those shelters for goats and pigs? Lawrence Akena made over 80% of the contribution to ensure they are the way they are,” Baguma says. “And yet this is a person who was spending nights at verandas in Kamdini.”

Iram told IPS that she is working hard to ensure the assets multiply so that she can invest for her son’s future survival. She and her son are regular savers in their Village Saving Loan Association (VSLA), an informal, local financial institution that relies on its members’ savings to provide loans for emergencies and to support members’ enterprises.

“I had always wished to do something for my son, but I had no support. I plan to buy a piece (of land) and plant trees for his future from the savings in our village saving box,” she says.

Asked what lessons there were to learn from the DIG model, Baguma, who lives with Down syndrome, said there was a need for extra support for households with persons with disabilities.

“That when you are designing a project, you should include persons with disabilities. And it is possible. We shouldn’t look at the expenses. At times people say it is expensive. But we should look at the end results. How impactful is it going to be? If you don’t bring in that perspective of disability, then you are not reaching every person,” he said.

Uganda’s Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development 2020 study found that households with a person with a disability spent close to 39 percent more than other households.

“Future interventions to address poverty and wellbeing needs to ensure that the gap does not widen, leaving people with disabilities and their families behind. This may, therefore, necessitate the provision of additional resources to those households,” said the report.

Finding innovative solutions allows people living with a disability to support themselves and their families. Credit: BRAC

DIG has also provided rehabilitation, psychosocial support (PSS) needs and assistive devices for persons with disabilities, such as railings for entryways, modified latrines and artificial limbs.

One of such recipients is Denis Aboke, who lives in the village next to Akuna’s. Aboke, a cancer survivor, says that he now has an artificial limb 18 years after losing his leg to cancer.

He told IPS that without DIG’s intervention, he would still be using wooden crutches.

“Amputation from cancer had rendered me completely useless. I could not go into the garden. Now I can do some farming. I’m now able to support my family. The children are going to school,” he says.

Apart from the primary assets,  Aboke also received a diesel-powered grain milling machine as part of the DIG program, earning him extra income from fellow villagers. While Aboke sees a brighter future for himself, he hopes to see organisations continue to support people with disabilities.

“My brother, I can tell you that nobody cares about people with disabilities. Landmines disabled many people, but there was no support. Health centres here have nothing to offer,” shares Aboke.

Rwot Ma Miyo Village Savings Loan Association members meeting. BRAC ensures that meetings take place at residences of persons with disabilities, so they can be included. Credit: Wambi Michael/IPS

Aboke’s rehabilitation was performed at Gulu Regional Referral Hospital, over 65 kilometres from his village. The hospital’s orthopaedic workshop serves clients from Northern Uganda and South Sudan.

Principle Orthopaedic Technologist Senvume Kavuma Abbey told IPS that the workshop is overwhelmed by demand, yet orthopaedic care services are least funded in Uganda.

“The government last supplied us with materials ten years ago. So, if DIG had not come in, we wouldn’t be able to provide services to those who benefitted,” explains Senvume.

Program staff arranged community outreach visits linking orthopaedic services with people with different forms of disabilities.

“We were able to see where those people were coming from, and so we designed appliances customised to their environment and their nature of work, and what they desire to do,” said Senvume

While the DIG model is relatively new to Uganda, the program partners think it can be adopted elsewhere as a tool for improving livelihoods for people with disabilities.

Shammah Arinaitwe, a Technical Specialist with BRAC Uganda, told IPS that Graduation is good for reaching poor households. She explained that it considers the recipient’s needs and what they can do and uses their experience to forge the path out of poverty.

“I will give an example. If you cannot afford 60-70 cents of a dollar per day, the project gives you a boost,” explains Arinaitwe. The comparison of someone who has benefitted from DIG is that the assets gained through their participation in the project mean they end up being able to support themselves and grow.

“If I have one cow, eleven goats, and thirty chickens, you can’t compare me with someone who does not have any,” explains Arinaitwe. “I’m glad to tell you that the same model of the project is being started in Tanzania, drawing from the lessons from Uganda.”

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Credit: European Commission

By Reghina Dimitrisina
BRUSSELS, Jun 14 2022 (IPS)

The fast-changing environment requires Europe’s energy system not only to adapt but to also find the right mechanisms to ensure its unity in the face of turbulent challenges.

In March 2022, European solidarity was translated into tangible policy action when EU leaders officially agreed to jointly buy natural gas, liquified natural gas (LNG), and hydrogen in an effort to protect citizens from skyrocketing energy prices and lessen reliance on Russian imports. In theory, this shows European alignment and solidarity in action. But what does this mean in practical terms?

The idea of a joint gas purchase agreements is not a new one. In April 2014, the then Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, proposed this instrument for jointly buying gas in a mandatory form, as part of the ‘EU Energy Union’ framework. Mandatory joint procurement has been welcomed but with a hint of scepticism, as Member States were not eager to pursue this united approach due to differing national policy views. That is why one year later, on 19 March 2015, the EU governments endorsed the voluntary option of this mechanism as a compromise.

Reghina Dimitrisina

However, nowadays the energy policy landscape is changing at the speed of light and this instrument might be more relevant now than ever. According to Kadri Simson, the European Commissioner for Energy, the process of joint procurement is ‘straightforward’.

‘Member States that wish to do so define their own parameters for the joint action – how much gas is to be bought, for how long, how this gas would be used in an emergency situation, and then they inform the Commission’. The Commission would then inform the other Member States of the action being taken and check that energy market and state aid rules are respected.

To this end, the EU has launched the EU Energy Platform – to pool demand, coordinate infrastructure use and negotiate with international partners to facilitate joint purchases. Importantly, Ukraine, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, as well as the Western Balkans countries, can also join this form of collective purchasing agreement.

Learning outcomes from the joint pandemic procurement

This approach might sound familiar, as the EU already managed a solidarity mechanism during the pandemic when the Commission coordinated the joint Covid19 vaccines procurement to ensure timely supply to each Member State. Some experts claim that gas is much more problematic than purchasing vaccines.

Pessimistic voices argue that the mechanism works if everyone’s in. Purchasing power works best if you’re buying a lot – and right now it’s not clear what percentage of EU’s gas would fall under the proposed joint procurement.

Moreover, the distribution aspect might be problematic. EU countries have different levels of gas reliance on Russia, and not every Member State has storage facilities or direct access to an import terminal for cargoes arriving via ship.

Nevertheless, there are also arguments in favour of this mechanism. For example, Christian Egenhofer, Associate Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), said that an effective joint gas purchasing plan could stop the Member States from competing with each other in buying gas but also from presuming to offer shabby deals to autocratic rulers. In addition, and more long term, the joint gas purchasing platform could lead to a truly European security of gas supply policy.

The renaissance of the solidarity mechanism

Despite criticism, the crisis is pushing the EU toward a joint approach. On 27 April 2022, state-controlled Russian energy company Gazprom cut off Poland and Bulgaria from its gas supply because they refused to pay in Russian rubles, as President Vladimir Putin has demanded.

European Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen reacted and highlighted in her statement that ‘Both Poland and Bulgaria are now receiving gas from their EU neighbours. The era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe will come to an end.’ Bulgarian Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov also underlined that Bulgaria counts on the Commission’s common purchasing strategy to buy gas.

Finland also found itself in the same position on 21 May 2022, when Gazprom officially stopped gas exports as it had not received payment in rubles. Finland found the solution in a joint approach and together with Estonia concluded an agreement on the joint leasing of a floating terminal for LNG that will guarantee the supply of gas to both countries.

More recently, Gazprom extended its gas cuts on 1 June 2022 by stopping supply to GasTerra, which buys and trades gas on behalf of the Dutch government. Furthermore, it also cut off gas flows to the Danish energy firm Ørsted and to Shell Energy for its contract to supply gas to Germany, after both companies failed to make payments in roubles.

GasTerra said it had found alternative contracts for the supply of the 2bn cubic metres of gas it had been expecting to receive from Gazprom between now and October. Ørsted also declared that a gas cut would not immediately put the country’s gas supplies at risk. They would turn to the European gas market to fill the gap.

In the case of Germany, while the move appears to be largely symbolic — amounting to about 3 per cent of Germany’s Russian gas imports, according to Robert Habeck, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, ‘the situation is escalating to the point that the use of energy as a weapon is becoming a reality’.

He also emphasized that Germany can cope with the latest disruption in part by securing alternative supplies, adding that there’s no need to elevate Germany’s alert level. The country’s three-stage emergency plan, which is currently at its first level, could see its network regulator eventually ration gas if supplies get tight.

During this critical time, the solidarity mechanism is experiencing a renaissance. In the end, its effectiveness will depend on the volumes that will be purchased and how many Member States will adhere to it.

However, considering the need to reduce the dependency on Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible, it is clear that no Member State can tackle this challenge on its own. A truly united European energy front is the only way forward.

Reghina Dimitrisina is a Policy Advisor at the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s competence center for Climate and Social Justice.

Source: International Politics and Society (IPS)-Journal published by the International Political Analysis Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin

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By Anis Chowdhury and Jomo Kwame Sundaram
SYDNEY and KUALA LUMPUR, Jun 14 2022 (IPS)

US-led sanctions are inadvertently undermining the dollar’s post-Second World War dominance. The growing number of countries threatened by US and allied actions is forcing victims and potential targets to respond pro-actively.

SWIFT strengthened dollar
The instant messaging system of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) informs users, both payers and payees, of payments made. Thus, it enables the smooth and rapid transfer of funds across borders.

Anis Chowdhury

Created in 1973, and launched in 1977, SWIFT is headquartered in Belgium. It links 11,000 banks and financial institutions (BFIs) in more than 200 countries. The system sends over 40 million messages daily, as trillions of US dollars (USD) change hands worldwide.

Co-owned by more than 2,000 BFIs, it is run by the National Bank of Belgium, together with the G-10 central banks of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Joint ownership was supposed to avoid involvement in geopolitical disputes.

Many parties use USD accounts to settle dollar-denominated transactions. Otherwise, banks of importing and exporting countries would need accounts in each other’s currencies in their respective countries in order to settle payments.

SWIFT abuse
US and allied – including European Union (EU) – sanctions against Russia and Belarus followed their illegal invasion of Ukraine. Created during the US-Soviet Cold War, SWIFT remains firmly under Western control. It is now used to block payments for Russian energy and agriculture exports.

But besides stopping income flows, it inadvertently erodes USD dominance. As sanctions are increasingly imposed, such actions intimidate others as well. While intimidation may work, it also prompts other actions.

This includes preparing for contingencies, e.g., by joining other payments arrangements. Such alternatives may ensure not only smoother, but also more secure cross-border financial transfers.

As part of US-led sanctions against the Islamic Republic, the EU stopped SWIFT services to Iranian banks from 2012. This blocked foreign funds transfers to Iran until a compromise was struck in 2016.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

US financial hegemony
Based in Brussels, with a data centre in the US, SWIFT is a ‘financial panopticon’ for surveillance of cross-border financial flows. About 95% of world USD payments are settled through the private New York-based Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS), involving 43 financial institutions.

About 40% of worldwide cross-border payments are in USD. CHIPS settles US$1.8 trillion in claims daily. As all CHIPS members maintain US offices, they are subject to US law regardless of headquarters location or ownership.

Hence, over nearly two decades, CHIPS members like BNP Paribas, Standard Chartered and others have paid nearly US$13 billion in fines for Iran-related sanctions violations under US law!

Exorbitant privilege
The USD remains the currency of choice for international trade and foreign reserve holdings. Hence, the US has enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” since World War Two after the 1944 Bretton Woods conference created the gold-based ‘dollar standard’ – set at US$35 for an ounce of gold.

With the USD remaining the international currency of choice, the US Treasury could pay low interest rates for bonds that other countries hold as reserves. It thus borrows cheaply to finance deficits and debt. Hence, it is able to spend more, e.g., on its military, while collecting less taxes.

Due to USD popularity, the US also profits from seigniorage, namely, the difference between the cost of printing dollar notes and their face value, i.e., the price one pays to obtain them.

In August 1971, President Nixon unilaterally ‘ended’ US obligations under the Bretton Woods international monetary system, e.g., to redeem gold for USD, as agreed. Soon, the fixed USD exchange rates of the old order – determining other currencies’ relative values – became flexible in the new ‘non-system’.

In the ensuing uncertainty, the US ‘persuaded’ Saudi King Feisal to ensure all oil and gas transactions are settled in USD. Thus, OPEC’s 1974 ‘petrodollar’ deal strengthened the USD following the uncertainties after the Nixon shock.

Nevertheless, countries began diversifying their reserve portfolios, especially after the euro’s launch in 1999. Thus, the USD share of foreign currency reserves worldwide declined from 71% in 1999 to 59% in 2021.

With US rhetoric more belligerent, dollar apprehension has been spreading. On 20 April 2022, Israel – a staunch US ally – decided to diversify its reserves, replacing part of its USD share with other major trading partners’ currencies, including China’s renminbi.

Sanction reaction
The EU decision to bar Iranian banks from SWIFT prompted China to develop its Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Operational since 2015, CIPS is administered by China’s central bank. By 2021, CIPS had 80 financial institutions as members, including 23 Russian banks.

At the end of 2021, Russia held nearly a third of world renminbi reserves. Some view the recent Russian sanctions as a turning point, as those not entrenched in the US camp now have more reason to consider using other currencies instead.

After all, before seizing about US$300 billion in Russian assets, the US had confiscated about US$9.5 billion in Afghan reserves and US$342 million of Venezuelan assets.

Threatened with exclusion from SWIFT following the 2014 Crimea crisis, Russia developed its own SPFS (Financial Message Transfer System) messaging system. Launched in 2017, SPFS uses technology similar to SWIFT’s and CIPS’s.

Both CIPS and SPFS are still developing, largely serving domestic BFIs. By April 2022, most Russian banks and 52 foreign institutions from 12 countries had access to SPFS. Ongoing developments may accelerate their progress or merger.

The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has its own domestic payments systems, RuPay. It clears millions of daily transactions among domestic BFIs, and can be used for cross-border transactions.

Sanctions cut both ways
Unsurprisingly, those not allied to the US want to change the system. Following the 2008-9 global financial crisis, China’s central bank head called for “an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations”.

Meanwhile, China’s USD assets have declined from 79% in 2005 to 58% in 2014, presumably falling further since then. More recently, China’s central bank has been progressively expanding use of its digital yuan or renminbi, e-CNY.

With over 260 million users, its app is now ‘technically ready’ for cross-border use as no Western bank is needed to move funds across borders. Such payments for imports from China using e-CNY will bypass SWIFT, and CHIPS will not need to clear them.

Russia has long complained of US abuse of dollar hegemony. Moscow has tried to ‘de-dollarize’ by avoiding USD use in trade with other BRICS – i.e., Brazil, India, China and South Africa – and in its National Wealth Fund holdings.

Last year, Vladimir Putin warned the US is biting the hand feeding it, by undermining confidence in the US-centric system. He warned, “the US makes a huge mistake in using dollar as the sanction instrument”.

The scope of US financial payments surveillance and USD payments will decline, although not immediately. Thus, Western sanctions have unwittingly accelerated erosion of US financial hegemony.

Besides worsening stagflationary trends, such actions have prompted its targets – current and prospective – to take pre-emptive, defensive measures, with yet unknown consequences.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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By Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury
SINGAPORE, Jun 13 2022 (IPS-Partners)

Despite the fact that the post Second World War period witnessed the growth and proliferation of a plethora horrendous weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear bombs, human intellectual ingenuity managed to keep the slide into catastrophe at bay. The idea was proffered, and largely accepted, that these weapons were meant not to fight wars but to prevent them. During much of the Cold War period, when nuclear weapons proliferated, particularly among the superpowers, peace was maintained on the premise of the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Since the key superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, had the capacity to destroy each other many times over, rational logic prevented both from initiating a nuclear war. Defence was achieved by deterrence, that is preventing the enemy from attacking with threat of overwhelmingly unacceptable level of retaliation (“nuclear deterrence”)

Dr. Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury

Then in the mid – 1970s the US Secretary of Defence enunciated the ‘Schlesinger doctrine’ named after him. It held that there could be small scale, limited nuclear conflicts, using weapons with greater precision but lower yield, specifically targeted, gradually escalating to higher levels of warfare. In other words, a nuclear exchange could imply ‘limited warfighting’ which could also be winnable. The view was that at one point of equilibrium along the escalating curve, one side would capitulate. Design and weapons-production followed theory. Weapons became smaller and more precise. They were tactical with shorter range and more appropriate for battlefield or theatre use. For these very reasons the propensity for possible use increased mathematically, and logically. Sensing this danger leaders negotiated and signed treaties, bringing down numbers of long distance and shortrange ordnances down impressively. The total size of nuclear arsenal came down from much higher numbers to about 13000 strategic and 2000 tactical weapons. Eventually these treaties expired. However, rationality still held sway, and although wars had not ceased. Nonetheless, the danger of a nuclear war seemed to have receded. At least up until now.

The aforesaid discussion largely reflected the extant western theoretical and doctrinal literature. But what about Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union? Briefly Russian thinking in this regard was encompassed in the two concepts of SDERZIVANIE (“nuclear restraint”) and USTRASHENIE (‘intimidation”). This combination is meant to persuade the adversary that it has no chance of achieving its strategic goals by force. This policy which implies use of conventional and strategic weaponry remains in operation both in peace and war. Nuclear weapons are seen as being only one item in the tool- kit of warfare. It includes the western concept of “deterrence” as well as coercive measures and compellence. It is thus designed to be a multi-domain cross-cutting effort using both soft and hard power. Hence the western perception of the Russian doctrine as “hybrid”.

In June 2020, President Vladimir Putin signed Executive Order355 that outlined Russia’s current strategic doctrine. It contained a systematized asymmetric approach, underscoring the severity and certainty of “punishment”. The document lists a whole series of activities by the adversary that may be constituted as a threat to Russia (and its allies) to be “neutralized by the implementation of nuclear deterrence” (meaning “nuclear weapons”). The order also allows for the use of nuclear weapons not only to counter the enemy’s similar capabilities, but also “other types of weapons of mass destruction of significant combat potential of general purpose forces”. Western analysts believe this as entailing a wide range of options to introduce nuclear weapons at an early stage of conflict to prevent its spread. In other words, a reconfirmation of the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy.

Additionally, the Russians are said to have in place what is known as “dead hand” system, or the “perimeter”. It is designed to automatically initiate the launch of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) by sending a pre-entered highest authority order if an enemy nuclear strike is detected by seismic, light, radioactivity, and pressure sensors. It will operate even if the commanding elements are fully destroyed, for instance by a pre-emptive strike. The system is normally switched off, but is supposed to be activated during times of crisis. The current war in Ukraine probably fits the bill, especially when Putin has put the nuclear deterrence on “full alert”. In any case, it is said to remain fully functional and can be pressed into service whenever needed. The US does not operate a “dead hand” counterpart, but the National Command Authority has backup authorities in the event of the death of the President and/or of Secretary of Defence.

Presidents Biden and Putin had got off to a what seemed to be a fairly decent start when in a phone conversation in February last year they agreed to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty by five more years. By doing so they were reversing the decision earlier of President Donald Trump. But with the Ukraine crisis boiling over right now, that happy moment seems ions ago. In the war in Ukraine whether by tactical design or military compulsion the Russians have eased pressure on other parts including the capital Kyiv and are now consolidating focus on the east, in Donbass and Crimea. One consequence has been a burgeoning sense among western allies that a Russian defeat is possible. Hence the enthusiasm to arm the Ukrainians with deadlier weapons than earlier thought appropriate, or wise. The Russian leadership have been warning that red lines are being crossed. The peace talks in Belarus and Turkey have all but collapsed. The sanctions- noose around Russia is being tightened. We have reached a stalemate. The world is on edge. This is what the great international relations thinker Coral Bell described as a “crisis -slide”. As things stand now, one hasty decision, an accidental shooting down of a plane, one bomb reaching the wrong target can bring unspeakable results. The danger is very real that one side may be persuaded that the use of a nuclear device would be “rational”. We have climbed high on Herman Kahn’s “escalation ladder” to Armageddon. Are we inexorably sleepwalking towards a horrific conflagration?

There must be a rethink by global leaders while there is time. Just as President John Kennedy and Premier Nikita Krushchev walked away from the brink of disaster during the Cuban crisis in 1962, our chance may lie in that bit of history repeating itself. My own long diplomatic career had been devoted to issues of disarmament and non-proliferation. I have never felt as close to catastrophe as I do now. Should good sense prevail, and disaster avoided, we must look to one glimmer of hope in the dark cloud. That is the UN Resolution 72/31 of 4 December 2017 banning nuclear weapons. It will take enormous leadership and courage, and a great leap of faith to commit ourselves to it. They say victors write the history. But a total nuclear war may leave us with no history at all, as there perhaps may be none alive to write it!

This story was originally published by Dhaka Courier.

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Brazil ranks as the third largest economy in the Americas, and the 10th largest in the world, It is a major exporter of food products, but, hunger has surged over 70% in just two years in the country, impacting more than 33 million people, up from 19 million in 2020. Credit: Mario Osava/IPS

By IPS Correspondents
RIO DE JANEIRO, Jun 13 2022 (IPS)

Right now, out of a total of 211.7 million Brazilians, 116.7 million are experiencing some level of food insecurity, 43.4 million do not have enough food, and 19 million were facing hunger, reveals a June 2022 report by the Brazilian Research Network of Food and Nutrition Sovereignty and Security (Rede PENSSAN).

The results of its national survey show that less than half of Brazilian households (44.8%) were food secure, while 55.2% of households were experiencing some level of food insecurity, and 9% of households were facing hunger (severe food insecurity).

In Brazil, someone earning the minimum monthly wage would have to work 19 years to make the same money a Brazilian from the richest 0.1% of the population makes in one month

The situation is even worse in rural areas, where 12% of households are affected by hunger, reveals the survey, while explaining that in rural areas, severe food insecurity is twice as high in households without access to water for food and livestock production compared to those with access to water.

Historic setback

According to the Rede PENSSAN, the current situation in this Latin American largest economy reflects a “historic setback” for a country that had made huge gains against poverty.

Such gains were successively achieved by the Government of former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who ruled the Latin American giant from January 2003 to the end of 2010.

Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, continued with the same social policies, from January 2011 to May 2016. Roussef was succeeded by Michel Miguel Elias Temer Lulia from 31 August 2016 to 31 December 2018.

Social policies, dismantled

Thanks to both Lula da Silva and Dilma Roussef social policies, Brazil lifted 28 million people out of poverty in just 15 years, reducing poverty to less than 10% of the population.

Then came current president Jair Messias Bolsonaro, an ex-military who took office on 1 January 2019, whose regime has been dismantling the considerable hunger reduction and social gains which were achieved by his predecessors’ governments.

Among other dire consequences, households with income of up to half of a minimum monthly salary per capita face severe food insecurity at levels 2.5 times the national average.

The study also pointed to persistent inequalities among regions, including disparities in household income, which are important determinants of food access.

 

Extreme inequality

In addition to the increasing sharp inequalities between Brazilian regions and between urban and rural populations, economic inequality in Brazil has reached extreme levels, despite being one of the largest economies in the world, reports OXFAM International.

The last decades have seen incredible progress across Brazil. The country has been able to reduce inequality, taking millions of people out of poverty and thereby raising the base of the social pyramid, OXFAM reminds.

But despite this evolution, the pace has been very slow and the Latin American giant is still listed as one of the most unequal countries on the planet, adds OXFAM in its report Extreme Inequality in Brazil in Numbers.

 

The numbers

The report provides some staggering numbers:

• In Brazil, someone earning the minimum monthly wage would have to work 19 years to make the same money a Brazilian from the richest 0.1% of the population makes in one month.

• At the current rate inequality is decreasing in Brazil, it will take the country 75 years to reach the United Kingdom’s current level of income equality and almost 60 years to meet Spanish standards.

• Compared to its neighbours, Brazil is 35 years behind Uruguay and 30 behind Argentina.

Richest 5%, same income as poorest 50%

But while such sharp inequality is hitting the most vulnerable in Brazil, it strikes even harder Brazilian women and blacks. See these OXFAM numbers:

• Brazil’s six richest men have the same wealth as the poorest 50% of the population; around 100 million people. The country’s richest 5% have the same income as the remaining 95%.

• If Brazil’s six richest men pooled their wealth and spent 1 million Brazilian reals a day (around $319,000), it would take them 36 years to spend all their money. Meanwhile, 16 million Brazilians live below the poverty line.

• At the current pace of progress, Brazilian women will close the wage gap in 2047. Black Brazilians will earn the same as whites in 2089. Brazil is decades away from wage equality.

Big food producer and exporter

Such is the current harsh reality of a giant country covering more than 8,5 square kilometres of land, home to over 214 million people, which ranks as the third largest economy in the Americas, and the 10th largest in the world by nominal gross domestic product (GDP).

Brazil is rich in resources, being the world’s largest producer of coffee over the last 150 years. It is also a major exporter of food products, such as soy, maize, beef, chicken meat, soybean meal, sugar, tobacco, cotton, orange, among others.

Amidst sharpening inequality and the ongoing dismantling of social policies, hunger in Brazil surged over 70% in just two years, impacting more than 33 million people, up from 19 million in 2020.

At the Haru Oni demonstration plant where the ecological fuel based on green hydrogen will be produced, the wind turbine that will provide wind energy to the project promoted by the HIF Global group in the southern Chilean region of Magallanes has been installed. CREDIT: HIF Global

By Orlando Milesi
SANTIAGO, Jun 13 2022 (IPS)

Patagonia’s strong winds are driving projects that will place Magallanes, in the extreme south of Chile, in a privileged position to produce and export green hydrogen and help the country move towards carbon neutrality.

The projects underway aim to produce green fuel to replace gasoline in any vehicle, competing with the efficiency of electromobility. Another goal is to produce green ammonia to replace, for example, the 350,000 tons of gray ammonia that Chile imports for the large copper mines in the north of the country.

President Gabriel Boric said on Jul. 8 at the IV Business Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, California, that Chile “is going to bet heavily on green hydrogen, both the State and the private sector.”

He encouraged U.S. businesspeople to invest in Chile while “linking production chains and raising environmental standards.”

“In the Patagonian region alone, if we do things right, the potential is enough to supply 13 percent of the world’s demand for green hydrogen,” said Boric, a native of Punta Arenas, the capital of the Magallanes region, popularly known as Chile’s Patagonia.

Julio Maturana, undersecretary of energy, told IPS that it is essential that green hydrogen be developed in harmony with Chile’s territories and ecosystems.

“We will push for hydrogen to be at the base of the creation of industry, and for Chile to participate in the entire value chain, including technological innovation,” he said.

Maturana said that the government is promoting studies to identify the greatest comparative advantages, “pushing for more sustainable mining, green fertilizers, green steel, zero-emission maritime and aviation fuels, or manufacturing processes so that Chile can add value not only with its winds in Magallanes and the desert sun, but also with its workers, universities and industry.”

According to the undersecretary, when the National Green Hydrogen Strategy was launched two years ago, there were 20 projects submitted – a number that has since risen threefold.

“There are more than 15 projects that have set their operational start date for green hydrogen production on an industrial scale before 2030,” he said, projecting “about 3.7 gigawatts (GW) of electrolysis operating by 2025 and 35 GW of electrolysis operating by 2030.”

In the extreme south of Chile, members of the Environmental Studies Group from the University of Magallanes carry out field work in Bahía Posesión to gather data for the environmental impact study for the H2 Magallanes project of the French group Total Eren. CREDIT: Erika Mutschke/University of Magallanes

Characteristics of the green hydrogen boom

Green hydrogen is obtained by electrolysis using only electrical energy from clean, renewable sources such as wind or sun.

Electrolysis involves using electricity to split the water molecule, consisting of two parts hydrogen and one part oxygen, H2O.

Of all the hydrogen produced in the world today, 95 percent is gray hydrogen obtained using natural gas, oil or coal, which causes the emission of large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2), a major driver of global warming.

The use of electricity represents almost 70 percent of the cost of producing green hydrogen, which is why Chile is in a privileged location due to its enormous solar radiation potential in the northern Atacama Desert and the strong winds in the southern Patagonia region.

Magallanes is exceptionally windy because of the clash of high pressure systems caused by the Pacific anticyclone, which runs from Ecuador to Patagonia, and the low pressures and cold air masses originating from the polar front coming from Antarctica.

In 2019 Chile’s energy mix included 44 percent renewables. It is estimated that by 2030 renewables will make up 70 percent of the mix and that by 2050 the proportion will climb to 95 percent, as part of an energy transition that in addition to decarbonizing energy aims to free the country from costly hydrocarbon imports.

Producing a kilogram of green hydrogen today costs six dollars, but Undersecretary Maturana said that “Chile has the technical conditions to achieve production costs of less than a dollar per kilo.”

This would be important for bringing the cost of green hydrogen closer to that of fossil fuels, while now it is four times more expensive.

“To bring the price down, a series of measures will be required to provide certainty, access to financing and the promotion of a market or critical mass of local demand,” said the undersecretary.

Wind towers near Punta Arenas, capital of the Magallanes region, one of the best areas in the world for producing wind energy because a turbine can operate for more than 5,000 hours a year, according to Daniele Consoli of Enel Green Power, which is promoting the Haru Oni green hydrogen project in Chile’s southern Patagonia region. CREDIT: Ministry of Energy

Two flagship projects move ahead

A wind turbine has already been installed in Magallanes, part of an assembly platform built north of Punta Arenas at the Haru Oni demonstration plant.

The project, the first phase of which involves an investment of 51 million dollars, is being promoted by the international consortium HIF Global which, in parallel, will build a plant to produce green hydrogen that will then be treated to produce green gasoline.

“Little by little our project is taking shape and this turbine is a fundamental part of it,” said Clara Bowman, general manager of HIF Global, a company with 80 percent Chilean capital as well as the participation of German and U.S. firms.

“In parallel, in various places around the world, such as China, Germany and the United States, the equipment that will allow us to produce carbon-neutral eFuel is already being manufactured. We are working to start operations during the second half of this year,” explained the manager of the company, whose name is the abbreviation of Highly Innovative Fuels.

The French company Total Eren is developing the H2 Magallanes Project in the municipality of San Gregorio, near Punta Arenas, which will have up to 10 GW of installed wind power capacity and up to eight GW of electrolysis capacity, in addition to a desalination plant and an ammonia (NH3) production plant.

“The timeframe puts the start of the construction phase in 2025, and it is projected that by 2027 the first green hydrogen units could be operating,” said Macarena Toledo, environmental and social director of the H2 Magallanes Project.

The estimated investment is 20 billion dollars, she told IPS.

The Environmental Studies Group at the University of Magallanes is preparing the project’s environmental impact study, which includes variables of soil, water, fauna, flora, relief and strategies to inform the community about wind turbines and green hydrogen.

Claudio Gómez, dean of engineering at the university, told IPS that green hydrogen has unleashed “an explosive process that involves a revolution in the education of engineers, who must have a new kind of training to face new challenges.”

A sign reads “Welcome to the municipality of San Gregorio” in the extreme south of Chile, where the H2 Magallanes project is conducting environmental impact studies before starting construction of its project, the initial phase of which is scheduled for 2025. CREDIT: Total Eren

A cleaner future, not just on paper

The carbon-neutral fuel produced by Haru Oni will be tested in vehicles of the German brand Porsche, which is part of the consortium. The projection is that seven million cars will have green hydrogen cells by 2030 in China, Japan, the United States and South Korea.

The big goal is for green hydrogen to be incorporated into large trucks and machinery in mining, industrial sectors such as steel mills, refineries, fertilizer and ceramics factories, and ships and airplanes.

On Jun. 6, a group of companies launched a project to make Pudahuel International Airport, which serves the capital city of Santiago, the first in Latin America to use green hydrogen.

The group, which includes the company that manages the airport, will evaluate the development of a hydrogen ecosystem, including production and fueling infrastructure to serve the airport complex’s ground operations, as well as aircraft in the future.

An additional key advantage of green hydrogen is that its molecule has a high energy density per unit mass: it is three times higher than that of gasoline and 120 times higher than that of lithium batteries.

In Bahía Posesión in Patagonia, the Environmental Studies Group from the University of Magallanes carries out work for the environmental impact study for the H2 Magallanes project, one of the initiatives that aims to exploit the wind energy potential of Chile’s southern Patagonia region for the production of green hydrogen. CREDIT: Erika Mutschke/University of Magallanes

The key role of the State

Undersecretary Maturana stressed that the Boric administration, in office since March, wants the state-owned National Petroleum Company (Enap) and Copper Corporation (Codelco) to play an important role in the production of green hydrogen.

“We want Enap to play a role not only as an infrastructure facilitator, but also as a producer of green hydrogen to accelerate the development of our local and export industry. We expect it to take a leading role in projects given its experience in energy infrastructure,” he said.

And with regard to Codelco, he said it can play an important role in promoting the energy transition from the mining industry, testing and studying low-emission technologies in its operations.

“Public, private, academic and civil society collaboration will be key to expanding this industry,” he said.

Maturana ruled out problems with water use, indicating that the projects presented would include desalination and/or water reuse.

“The cost of water in the production of green hydrogen represents less than one percent, so raising the cost of water to meet sustainable standards would not have a high impact on the final price of energy,” he explained.

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