Africa

World Food Day is celebrated on October 16, 2022, with the theme Leave NO ONE behind. During this week IPS will look at features that showcase better production, better nutrition, a better environment, and a better life.

Zambia's Enock Mwepu has been deprived of a "bright future" after the Brighton midfielder was forced to retire because of a heart issue.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank share a common goal of raising living standards in their member countries. This week, the two international institutions will convene in Washington DC (through October 16) for their annual meeting. The strength of the US dollar will be a key talking point. By adjusting their lending practices, these institutions have a unique opportunity to relieve suffering in the world’s poorest countries.

By Alexander Kozul-Wright and Ruurd Brouwer
GENEVA, Oct 11 2022 (IPS)

In the last week of September, emerging market (EM) bond fund outflows hit $4.2 billion, according to JP Morgan, bringing this year’s total to a record $70 billion. The exodus, set off by a rising U.S. dollar, is heaping pressure on low-income countries.

The greenback’s rise has been fuelled by interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Since March, the Fed has raised rates by three percentage points, prompting global investors to move their funds into U.S. financial assets and away from (riskier) EM investments.

While economists continue to wrangle over their U.S. growth forecasts, this ‘flight to quality’ has sent financial shockwaves across the developing world, already straining under elevated costs for food and fuel – typically priced in U.S. dollars. Moreover, attempts by EM policy makers to stem the dollar’s rise have largely failed.

Over the course of this year, central banks around the world have drained their U.S. dollar reserves at the fastest rate since 2008. To stem currency depreciations, they have also raised interest rates aggressively. In Argentina, for instance, policy makers raised rates to 75% last month. To little avail.

The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index, which measures the total return of 25 emerging market currencies against the U.S. Dollar, is down nearly 9 percent from January 1st. The Egyptian pound has depreciated by 20% over the same period, according to Bloomberg data. In Ghana, the Cedi has fallen by 41%.

On top of higher imports costs, a plunging currency makes the servicing of dollar- denominated debt more expensive. This concern may seem abstract to people in advanced economies. In developing nations, however, the effects are painfully real.

As the dollar appreciates relative to other currencies, more domestic currency (in the form of tax revenues) has to be generated to service existing dollar debts. For low-income governments, budget cuts have to be implemented in the hope of avoiding sovereign default.

Currency depreciations have the power to strongarm authorities into reducing health and education spending, just to stay current on their debts. This leaves officials with a grim choice: either risk unleashing a full-blown debt crisis, or confiscate essential public services.

Given the painful costs of insolvency, governments tend to prioritize austerity over bankruptcy. Together with the oft-publicized effects of lost access to foreign investment, subdued growth and high unemployment, sovereign default also imposes severe social tolls.

In August, the World Bank published a paper measuring the decline in country living standards – looking at access to food, energy and healthcare – after state bankruptcies. The paper showed that ten years after default, countries experience 13% more infant deaths per year, on average, compared to the synthetic control (counterfactual) group.

Admittedly, more developed emerging markets like Brazil and India can issue bonds in their own currency to limit budget cutbacks. In most of the world’s poor countries, however, financial markets are too shallow to support domestic lending.

With no recourse to borrow from private creditors, public bodies like multi-lateral development banks (MDBs) usually step in to fill the gap. Indeed, almost 90% of low-income countries’ (LICs) funding takes the form of concessional, or non-commercial, loans from official lenders.

Even accounting for these favourable terms, financial pressures are beginning to build outside of well-known hot spots like Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. As it stands, LICs have outstanding debts to MDBs and other official creditors to the tune of $153 billion (mostly denominated in USD).

Given the exogenous trigger for capital outflows from developing countries this year, multi-lateral lenders need to be more innovative. Where possible, they should use their robust credit ratings to assume greater risk by lending to poor countries in domestic currencies.

Failing that, they could lend in synthetic local currencies. These instruments index dollar debts to local exchange rates, allowing borrowers to service liabilities in their own currency while ensuring that creditors receive payments (both interest and principal) in dollars.

Synthetic currencies can improve debtor credit profiles by limiting foreign capital outflows and, by extension, improve debt management capacity. In particular, they boost economic resiliency by making government finances less a function of international currency volatility.

Multilateral financial institutions have been tasked with designing a stable international monetary system to try and ease global poverty. But the loans provided by these groups undermine their own mission, as dollar debts force currency risk onto the countries least able to handle it.

This week, the World Bank and the IMF will convene in Washington (October 10-16) for their annual meeting. The strength of the USD will be a key talking point. By adjusting their lending practices, these institutions have a unique opportunity to relieve suffering in the world’s poorest countries.

Alexander Kozul-Wright is a researcher at Third World Network and Ruurd Brouwer is Chief Executive Officer at TCX, a currency hedging firm (https://www.tcxfund.com).

IPS UN Bureau

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');  

Videos of primary school pupils learning practical skills such as cooking spark a nationwide debate.

Experts from the Netherlands and Bangladesh visit the Rupsha River in Khulna, southern Bangladesh, the planned site of future fish farms. Credit: IPS/Gemcon

By Mosabber Hossain
DHAKA, Oct 10 2022 (IPS)

Bangladeshi businessman Kazi Inam Ahmed is building his dream in a village near Rupsha River in Khulna, southern Bangladesh—to develop fish farming in the region, where climate change is reducing the ocean’s catch. He envisions creating small ponds, which would employ local climate affected fisherfolk, then exporting the international quality harvest to the Netherlands.

We are looking forward to seeing the outcome of this project - Hopefully it will be one of the successful initiatives by the government and private sector. The technologies that are coming to Bangladesh will help cope with the impact of climate change on agriculture

Dr Abdur Razzaque, Bangladesh Minister of Agriculture

Inam, director of Gemcon Group, a conglomerate that includes Gemcon Food & Agricultural Products Ltd, is preparing his project thanks to advice from experts who visited recently from the Netherlands. “The Dutch co-partner of this project, Viqon Water Solutions, shared the preliminary design with us on 29 September. They will provide us with the final design in December. We will start our civil works after getting the final design.”

“For the first one or two years we’ll start fishing to gain experience,” adds the businessman in an interview. “We’ll see which types yield better harvests. After that, we’ll focus on some species that are very popular in different countries and can earn export dollars. I’d like to start with shrimp.”

How did Inam find his dream? In November 2021, he was included as one of the private-sector representatives on a Bangladesh Government mission to the Netherlands, organized to develop the capacity of the Ministry of Agriculture and foster matchmaking to strengthen the country’s food exports, agro-processing, food safety, and laboratory capacity.

Organized through the Hand in Hand Initiative (HiH) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the delegation, which included five other agro-food companies, was led by Bangladesh Minister of Agriculture Dr Abdur Razzaque. It visited locations including the World Horticulture Centre, Wageningen University and Research, one of the world’s biggest onion exporting companies, and a range of other agricultural companies that grow and process produce that is exported globally.

 

Hand-in-Hand to improve agriculture

According to Robert D Simpson, FAO Representative in the country, “Bangladesh is a key country for HiH. Working with the government and private sector,” Simpson told IPS, “FAO develops value chains for profitable commodities, builds agro-industries, efficient water management systems, and digital services. The initiative also helps to reduce food loss and waste, and address climate challenges and weather risks.”

 

Bangladesh’s mission to the Netherlands, organized via the UN FAO’s Hand-in-Hand Initiative, visited various facilities in November 2021 to gather information on food exports, agro processing, and food safety. The delegation was led by Bangladesh Minister of Agriculture Dr Abdur Razzaque.

 

“The results will be raised incomes, improved nutrition and well-being of poor and vulnerable populations, and strengthened resilience to climate change,” added Simpson.

HiH is an evidence-based, country-owned and led initiative of the FAO to accelerate agricultural transformation, which also aims to eradicate poverty, end hunger and malnutrition, and reduce inequalities. The initiative was supporting 52 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East as of May 2022.

Speaking at the end of the November 2021 official trip, Razzaque said that Bangladesh will benefit from Dutch technology and know-how. “To be competitive in the global market in terms of price, quality, and safety, I think it’s important to keep updated with the latest technology in order to increase productivity.”

“We are looking forward to seeing the outcome of this project,” added the minister. “Hopefully it will be one of the successful initiatives by the government and private sector. The technologies that are coming to Bangladesh will help cope with the impact of climate change on agriculture.”

In addition, potato and onion experts from the Netherlands will train officials from the Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE), who will then train local farmers.

FAO Bangladesh has also organized several workshops and meetings with private sector and government officials to identify gaps and challenges for agricultural transformation.

 

Bangladesh’s mission to the Netherlands, organized via the UN FAO’s Hand-in-Hand Initiative, visited various facilities in November 2021 to gather information on food exports, agro processing, and food safety. Potato and onion experts from the Netherlands will train officials from the Department of Agriculture Extension, who will then train local farmers.

 

French fries on the menu

ACI Agro was another private-sector member of November’s delegation. “It was a magnificent learning platform,” the firm’s managing director and CEO, Dr FH Ansarey, told IPS. “We were searching for a good potato variant. In Bangladesh there is a big market for French fries but no variant to produce them. Luckily we found a company to help with that.”

“We spoke with Schaap Holland, one of the prominent potato seeds companies of the Netherlands. They agreed to send six different variant potato seeds to our company. Their potato variants are perfect for making good French fries.”

Ansarey said ACI Agro has already located a farming area near the capital Dhaka. “If everything is OK we’ll start farming soon. Their seeds are next generation potatoes, which can grow within 60-65 days. The cost of cultivation is less than three-four percent of other variants due to low infestation of diseases. Seventy percent of the potatoes are above 80 grams so they can be easily exported.”

“So I must say it’s a very good opportunity for Bangladesh to move into the next generation of farming as well as become a global exporter.”

 

Mineral supply chains are often linked to child abuse, human trafficking, forced labour and other human rights violations. Credit: Tommy Trenchard/IPS

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Oct 10 2022 (IPS)

Africa. The birthplace of “Homo Sapiens.” The land of plenty. The origin of farming. The richest region in terms of natural resources. And human capital. Home to over 1.3 billion humans, continues to be looted.

With 500 million plus people living in extreme poverty, Africa has also been transformed in a sort of grave for half of the world’s victims of terror. The continent is also the land with the highest suicide rate on Earth. Why?

 

Gold, diamonds, lithium…

The illegal exploitation of precious metals and minerals such as gold, silver and diamonds, are fuelling the extremists with significant sources of income, and benefiting the groups that control extraction, and trafficking routes - The vast Sahel region in particular has become “home to some of the most active and deadly terrorist groups”, says the Head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

“The evidence is there that the illegal exploitation of precious metals and minerals such as gold, silver and diamonds, are fuelling the extremists with significant sources of income, and benefiting the groups that control extraction, and trafficking routes.”

This is what the Head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) on 6 October 2002 stated, informing that the vast Sahel region in particular has become “home to some of the most active and deadly terrorist groups.”

See some of the major facts Ghada Waly submitted to the UN Security Council:

• Illegally mined gold and other precious metals are being fed into the legitimate market, providing huge profits for traffickers;
• Wildlife trafficking has also been reported as a possible source of funding for militias, with the illegal trade in ivory alone generating 400 million US dollars in illicit income each year;
• Around 3,500 victims of terrorist acts in sub-Saharan Africa last year, nearly half of those recorded worldwide;
• Such criminal exploitation strips the people of Africa of a significant source of revenue. It robs the millions of people who depend on these natural resources for their livelihoods. And it fuels conflicts and exacerbates instability;
• Mineral supply chains are often linked to child abuse, human trafficking, forced labour and other human rights violations… With 60% of Africa’s population under 25 years of age, young people are both the future of the continent but also its most vulnerable citizens.

 

The Ambassadors sitting in the UN Security Council heard these words. Five of them represent the world’s biggest arms producers –those used by terrorist groups– and their markets are the top beneficiaries of the business of exploiting precious minerals.

 

The highest suicide rate

But there is much more to tell. The very same day, 6 October, the World Health Organization (WHO) launching another horrifying data: Africa has the highest suicide rate in the world.

Ahead of World Mental Health Day on 10 October, Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO’s Regional Director for Africa, called for “significant investment…to tackle Africa’s growing burden of chronic diseases and non-infectious conditions – such as mental disorders – that can contribute to suicide”.

A couple of specific facts presented by the world specialised body:

• Mental health problems affect 116 million people in the African region, up from 53 million in 1990.
• The continent also has six of the top 10 countries for suicide in the world, while for each suicide in Africa, there are an estimated 20 suicide attempts.

 

Mental health deserves less than half a dollar

Despite the urgency of the problem, African governments allocate less than 50 US cents per person to treat mental health problems, says WHO. This is five times more than in 2017, but it is still well below the recommended 2 US dollars per person for low-income countries.

Additionally, mental health care is generally not included in national health insurance schemes, WHO said, noting that in Africa, there is only one psychiatrist for every 500,000 inhabitants.

This is 100 times below the WHO recommendation.

Additionally, mental health workers mostly work in urban areas, often leaving rural communities without any support. “Mental health is integral to wholesome health and well-being yet far too many people in our region who need help for mental health conditions do not receive it.”

 

‘Old’ and ‘modern’ robbery

The robbery of Africa is not new. European merchants in the early years of 16th century initiated the known as the Transatlantic slave trade. Tens of thousands of Africans were hunted mostly in West Africa, loaded in the holds of ships, chained, minimally fed to keep them alive, surrounded by rats, and shipped for European colonies in the Americas.

Then, in the 1880s, in what became known as the “Scramble for Africa,” European countries raced to occupy the continent, seeking economic, commercial, and strategic profits.

Once the European empires’ military and economic powers were diminished following two World Wars, their African colonies started accessing independence in the early 1960s.

But such independence did not last long.

In fact, Western-based private corporations have soon replaced the European-State colonisation, extracting oil, gold, diamonds and all sorts of precious metals and mineral resources, including highly demanded coltan and lithium, just to mention some.

 

Climate catastrophes, migration…

The world scientific community has repeatedly informed that while Africa produces between 2% and 3% of all gas emissions, the continent carries the burden of over 80% of all climate catastrophes, majorly generated by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.

As a consequence of its impoverishment and the unbearable load of external debts, the abuses of world’s trade, the continued exploitation, the induced corruption, and the severe droughts and floods, Africa is now home to 1 in 2 humans living in extreme poverty, and hunger.

No wonder then that thousands of Africans continue to attempt to escape poverty and hunger, fleeing to Europe in search of jobs that allows them and their families to survive.

Hundreds of them have drowned in the sea, and those who have managed to survive continue to be prey to human smugglers and traffickers who force them into ‘modern’ slavery, sexual exploitation, trade in vital organs, etcetera.

And anyway, those who finally reach European lands are now being pushed back, shipped to other countries in exchange for money, and swept away to States with high records of human rights abuses.

The looting of a whole continues unabated.

 

Brighton midfielder Enock Mwepu is forced to retire from football at the age of 24 because of a hereditary heart condition.

The Graduation approach's impact goes well beyond that of the individual participant. Not only does the household greatly benefit from its various interventions, but now studies show subsequent generations are able to stay out of the poverty trap. (Rangpur, Bangladesh). Credit: BRAC/2021

By Gregory Chen
WASHINGTON DC, Oct 10 2022 (IPS)

As we approach 2030, the Sustainable Development Goals look harder than ever to achieve. Shocks to the global economy caused by climate change, COVID-19, and conflict threaten humanity’s survival. For the most vulnerable, trends are moving in the wrong direction with an additional 75 to 95 million people now living in extreme poverty compared to pre-pandemic World Bank projections. By the end of this year more than 657 million people will still be living in extreme poverty substantially more than in 2018.

Though we cannot blame the recent crises alone. Even before the crises of the past few years the globe was beginning to realize addressing extreme poverty required new approaches. Economic growth alone remains insufficient and conventional anti-poverty policies and programs were not addressing the root problems affecting the most marginalized.

What can countries do to end the most severe forms of poverty?

While private organizations like BRAC (where I work) have a role to play, it is governments that are best positioned to take the lead tackling extreme poverty at scale. Governments have the mandate, the infrastructure, and the financing to transform the lives of the most vulnerable people.

Governments increasingly recognize a growing body of research which tells us people in extreme poverty face multiple reinforcing barriers – a lack of nutrition, education, and social exclusion which contribute to a deficit of hope and self-confidence. Together, these multiple factors create a poverty trap that is challenging to escape. Addressing only a few of these barriers at a time is insufficient for people out of poverty traps. Many governments have begun to recognize this in the past decade as growth lifted many out of poverty but large pockets of people remained excluded.

Women gather to discuss social issues and add to their group savings as part of the Bab Amal (Door of Hope) Graduation project in Upper Egypt (Sohag, Egypt). Credit: BRAC/Robert Irven 2022

Escaping a poverty trap requires a “big push” – a significant transfer of resources and\ support that can address multiple barriers in one go. One “big push” proven to break the poverty trap is referred to as the Graduation approach (though it may be called different things in diverse settings). Graduation is a sequenced set of interventions that address the unique circumstances of poverty within the local context. This approach meets participants’ day-to-day needs, provides training and assets for income generation, financial literacy and savings support, and social empowerment through community engagement and life skills training – all facilitated through coaching that calls for regular interactions with participants.

A period of intense coaching enables participants to build resilience and self-confidence by empowering them to save, diversify their sources of income, access safety nets, and develop coping mechanisms to major shocks and build up self confidence. These combined interventions are delivered in a 2-3 year time bound period, empowering participants to begin an upward trajectory out of extreme poverty and with greater ability to link to wider government support.

Graduation programs are designed to positively impact all household members, but the approach focuses on direct engagement with working age women. These women are disproportionately affected by extreme poverty and most likely to use their greater capacities to reinvest in their households’ development.

At its core, Graduation is about recognizing that when empowered with the right tools and resources, people can be agents of change for themselves, their households, and their communities.

A high return on investment

The Graduation approach is an investment with returns that grow over time. Rigorous evaluations report that four years after participants start, Graduation delivered benefits that began to exceed program costs. Compared to standalone narrower interventions like lump sum cash transfers, after 3 to 4 years after the initial intervention, Graduation programs deliver greater household benefits – including greater consumption, income, and savings. Research from India shows that ten years after starting the program, participants see approximately 400% ROI, and projections suggest this return could reach 1100% over the participant’s lifetime. Since the investment is time limited and may not be repeated its ROI over the longer term can save costs and build resilience.

Many Government are Adopting Graduation

Due to Graduation’s proven impact, many governments are investing in the approach, integrating it into existing programs. It is estimated that more than 15 government programs have developed Graduation approaches across Latin American, Africa, and Asia. Among them include governments in Kenya, the Philippines, and India. These are most often not new standalone programs but integrated within existing Graduation programs, where the Graduation package is particularly emphasized for certain target populations.

Yolanda, a participant of the DSWD’s Padayon SLP Graduation project, is visited by her coach Julius, who helps ensure she is making steady progress and has the tools and knowledge she needs to overcome any challenges or shocks. (Iloilo City, Philippines). Credit: BRAC/Robert Irven 2022

In the Philippines, despite the many challenges created by COVID-19 in 2020, participants in the Philippines’ Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) Graduation program had more resilient livelihoods and better savings and financial management, according to Asian Development Bank (ADB). The Government of the Philippines is now on its second iteration of Graduation integration offered through the Department of Social Welfare and Development with support from ADB and the Australian government.

The Government of Kenya is also investing in Graduation with the Kenya: Social and Economic Inclusion Project (KSEIP) in partnership with Global Development Incubator, BOMA Project, Village Enterprise, the World Bank, and the UK government (FCDO). Following a successful pilot in 2019, KSEIP will transition from a narrower unconditional cash transfer to a fuller package of Graduation.

A Few Leading Governments are Implementing at Scale

Some governments have moved beyond testing to delivering at scale. In the Province of Bihar in India, a large rural development program (called JEEViKA) established a special window for a Graduation program known as Satat Jevvikoparjan Yojana (SJY), which has reached 140,000 households in extreme poverty since 2018. Other Provinces in India may follow suit expanding their own Graduation programs as well. Additionally, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are looking to further adapt their already large scale programs with more Graduation elements added that can deliver long term results.

As governments implement scaled programs we have reasons to be confident that these investments will bring durable results. While we must address today’s crises, our work to dramatically reduce and eliminate extreme poverty will not happen with slipshod short-term band-aids. Governments can begin to fully address extreme poverty with smart investments that will over time lead to permanent changes that eliminate extreme poverty.

While governments will lead, they cannot do it alone. The international community, particularly multilateral institutions, can provide the financing required to operate at scale. NGOs and community-based institutions can be partners in last mile delivery assisting the government where needed. Researchers can focus their methods more on how scaled programs operate (rather than on repeat small scale impact evaluations) so that we can make wider decisions on adapting for scale.

It is high time for us to lean on the evidence, evolve programmatically, put government in the lead, and benefit from all the testing and research that has led us to solutions that can work.

IPS UN Bureau

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');  

Excerpt:

Gregory Chen is Managing Director of BRAC’s Ultra-Poor Graduation Initiative

By Anis Chowdhury and Jomo Kwame Sundaram
SYDNEY and KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 10 2022 (IPS)

The dogmatic obsession with and focus on fighting inflation in rich countries are pushing the world economy into recession, with many dire consequences, especially for poorer countries. This phobia is due to myths shared by most central bankers.

Anis Chowdhury

Myth 1: Inflation chokes growth
The common narrative is that inflation hurts growth. Major central banks (CBs), the Bretton Woods institutions (BWIs) and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) all insist inflation harms growth despite all evidence to the contrary. The myth is based on a few, very exceptional cases.

“Once-in-a-generation inflation in the US and Europe could choke off global growth, with a global recession possible in 2023”, claimed the World Economic Forum Chief Economist’s Outlook under the headline, “Inflation Will Lead Inexorably To Recession”.

The Atlantic recently warned, “Inflation Is Bad… raising the prospect of a period of economic stagnation or even a recession”. The Economist claims, “It hurts investment and makes most people poorer”.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Without evidence, the narrative claims causation runs from inflation to growth, with inevitable “adverse” consequences. But serious economists have found no conclusive supporting evidence.

World Bank chief economist Michael Bruno and William Easterly asked, “Is inflation harmful to growth?” With data from 31 countries for 1961-94, they concluded, “The ratio of fervent beliefs to tangible evidence seems unusually high on this topic, despite extensive previous research”.

OECD evidence for 1961-2021 – Figures 1a & 1b – updates Bruno & Easterly, again contradicting the ‘standard narrative’ of major CBs, BWIs, BIS and others. The inflation-growth relationship is strongly positive when 1974-75 – severe oil spike recession years – are excluded.

The relationship does not become negative even when 1974-75 are included. Also, the “Great Inflation” of 1965-82 did not harm growth. Hence, there is no empirical basis for setting a particular threshold, such as the now standard 2% inflation target – long acknowledged as “plucked from the air”!

Developing countries also have a positive inflation-growth relationship if extreme cases – e.g., inflation rates in excess of 20%, or ‘excessively’ impacted by commodity price volatilities, civil strife, war – are omitted (Figures 2a & 2b).

Figure 2a summarizes evidence for 82 developing countries during 1991-2021. Although slightly weakened, the positive relationship remained, even if the 1981-90 debt crises years are included (Figure 2b).

Myth 2: Inflation always accelerates
Another popular myth is that once inflation begins, it has an inherent tendency to accelerate. As inflation supposedly tends to speed up, not acting decisively to nip it in the bud is deemed dangerous. So, the IMF chief economist advises, “Don’t let inflation ‘genie’ out of the bottle”. Hence, inflation has to be ‘nipped in the bud’.

But, in fact, OECD inflation has never exceeded 16% in the past six decades, including the 1970s’ oil shock years. Inflation does not accelerate easily, even when labour has more bargaining power, or wages are indexed to consumer prices – as in some countries.

Bruno & Easterly only found a high likelihood of inflation accelerating when inflation exceeded 40%. Two MIT economists – Rüdiger Dornbusch and Stanley Fischer, later International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director – came to a similar conclusion, describing 15–30% inflation as “moderate”.

Dornbusch & Fischer also stressed, “Most episodes of moderate inflation were triggered by commodity price shocks and were brief; very few ended in higher inflation”. Importantly, they warned, “such [moderate] inflations can be reduced only at a substantial … cost to growth”.

Myth 3: Hyperinflation threatens
Although extremely rare, avoiding hyperinflation has become the pretext for central bankers prioritizing inflation prevention. Hyperinflation – at rates over 50% for at least a month – is undoubtedly harmful for growth. But as IMF research shows, “Since 1947, hyperinflations in market economies have been rare”.

Many of the worst hyperinflation episodes in history were after World War Two and the Soviet demise. Bruno & Easterly also mention breakdowns of economic and political systems – as in Iran or Nicaragua, following revolutions overthrowing corrupt despotic regimes.

A White House staff blog noted, “The inflationary period after World War II is likely a better comparison for the current economic situation than the 1970s and suggests that inflation could quickly decline once supply chains are fully online and pent-up demand levels off”.

Myth 4: Evidence-based policymaking
Central bankers love to claim their policymaking is evidence-based. They cite one another and famous economists to enhance the aura of CB “credibility”.

Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand promoted its arbitrary 2% inflation target mainly by endless repetition – not strong evidence or superior logic. They simply “devoted a huge amount of effort” to preaching the new mantra “to everybody who would listen – and some who were reluctant to listen”.

The narrative also suited those concerned about wage pressures. Fighting inflation has provided an excuse to further weaken workers’ working conditions and pay. Thus, labour’s share of income has been declining since the 1970s.

Greater central bank independence (from the executive) has enhanced the influence and power of financial interests – largely at the expense of the real economy. Output and employment growth weakened as a result, worsening the lot of the many, especially in the global South.

Fact: Central banks induce recessions
Inappropriate CB policies have often slowed economic growth without mitigating inflation. Hawkish CB responses to inflation can become self-fulfilling prophecies with high inflation seemingly associated with recessions or growth collapses.

Before becoming Fed chair, Ben Bernanke’s research team concluded, “an important part of the effect of oil price shocks [in the 1970s] on the economy results not from the change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy”.

Thus, central bank interventions have caused contractions without reducing inflation. The longest US recession after the Great Depression – in the early 1980s – was due to Fed chair Paul Volcker’s 1979-81 interest rate hikes.

A New York Times opinion-editorial recently warned, “The Powell pivot to tighter money in 2021 is the equivalent of Mr. Volcker’s 1981 move”, and “the 2020s economy could resemble the 1980s”.

Fearing an “extremely severe” world recession, Columbia University history professor Adam Tooze has summed up the current CBs’ interest rate hike frenzy as “the single most dramatic simultaneous tightening of monetary policy ever”!

Phobias, especially if based on unfounded beliefs, never offer good bases for sound policymaking.

IPS UN Bureau

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');   Related Articles

• Ideology and Dogma Ensure Policy Disaster
• Inflation Phobia Hastens Recessions, Debt Crises
• Inflation Targeting Farce: High Costs, Moot Benefits
• 1980s’ Redux? New context, Old Threats
• Stagflation: From Tragedy to Farce
• April Fool’s Inflation Medicine Threatens Progress
• Fighting Inflation Excuse for Class Warfare
• When Saviours Are the Problem
• Finance Drives World to Stagflation

Poverty, lack of nutrition, domestic violence and teen pregnancy are some of the key drivers of low learning performances and early school dropout racing across Samoa and the Pacific. Credit: Simona Marinescu, United Nations

By Simona Marinescu
APIA, Samoa, Oct 10 2022 (IPS)

With 147 million children around the world missing half of their in-person instruction over the last two years and around 24 million never returning to school, humanity is experiencing a deep learning crisis.

There is no substitute for good education.

As the challenges of our time continue to grow, it is impossible to imagine a future of prosperity and peace on a healthy planet without a functional, forward-looking and highly performing education system.

In recognition of the importance of investing in human capital to help overcome the impact of recent crises and restore growth and development, world leaders have gathered last month at the ‘Transforming Education Summit’ (TES), during the 77th UN General Assembly in New York.

The Summit, convened by the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, was aimed at mobilizing political ambition, joint action, and solutions for a forward looking and adequately financed quality education system.

In preparation for the TES, UN Country Teams, including our UN multi-country office covering the Cook Islands, Niue, Samoa and Tokelau, have supported governments conduct nation-wide consultations on the urgent need to reimagine education systems and find long-term solutions to the global learning crisis.

Convened in partnership with civil society, academia and the private sector, these consultations discussed ways of transforming education systems to ensure younger generations have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond to current and future crises.

According to our Multidimension Vulnerability Index, which I helped develop last year with fellow Resident Coordinators across the region, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Samoa, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of global shocks and crises including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

The resulting disruption to supply chains and spikes in energy and food prices have had a significant impact on Samoa and other SIDS, placing them under high debt distress and deepening their need for development-based support.

The decline in tourism during the pandemic has also severely constrained the fiscal space of these Small Island Developing States, reducing the capacity of SIDS governments to reform education systems and provide viable solutions for remote learning. SIDS are among the countries with the highest number of days without any online teaching during the pandemic.

Small Island Developing States are also experiencing some of the highest rates of young people Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET). Poverty, lack of nutrition, domestic violence and teen pregnancy are some of the key drivers of low learning performances and early school dropout racing across Samoa and the Pacific.

In the island of Nauru 51 % of young people are not in education, employment or training: the highest across the region. Samoa’s NEET stands at 38 %.

The lack of income opportunities in domestic markets means that labour migration has become a common solution to filling shortages and tackling joblessness. As a result, reliance on remittance inflows and imported goods and fuels continues to grow.

According to our recent joint policy brief on the structural vulnerabilities impeding progress towards SDG4 in Small Island Developing States, there is a strong positive correlation between increased public investment in education and improved youth NEET rates and overall education outcomes.

It is clear that in order to deliver this much needed economic diversification and enable a digital transformation across the region, we need to support governments of the Small Island Developing States reimagine their education systems.

To address the complex root causes of this learning crisis, as UN Resident Coordinator in Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau, I led a joint UN Country Team effort to mobilize resources from the Joint SDG Fund and other instruments to implement a series of key strategic interventions.

Through these coordinated efforts, we have introduced new social protection measures, implemented programmes through the Spotlight Initiative to end domestic violence, including violence against children and developed an Integrated National Financing Framework to improve management of development financing.

Enhancing learning outcomes and transforming Samoa into a knowledge society has been at the heart of our joint interventions over the last few years.

The Samoa-Knowledge Society Initiative (SKS-I) funded by the Government of India through the UN – India Development Partnership Fund has been jointly implemented by UNDP and UNESCO in 2020-2022 with the aim of enhancing digital development and promoting lifelong learning opportunities across the country.

Since its launch, the initiative has helped generate more digital resources throughout Samoa, including a free-access digital library and a lifelong learning platform to facilitate online open learning.

Through our new Cooperation Framework (2023-2027) – the joint five-year roadmap for development planning between the UN and the Governments of the 14 Pacific Countries and Territories we assist in the region, we are working to incentivize more young people to continue their education and acquire the professional skills necessary for better paying and more secure jobs.

Our Cooperation Framework therefore places a greater emphasis on expanding investment in blue, green and circular economies, accelerating the digital transformation and improving natural capital conservation.

With resources I mobilized from the Joint SDG Fund, UNEP, UNESCAP, and UNESCO are working on enhancing ecosystem services to diversify sources of growth and improve debt sustainability.

Aside from these efforts to strengthen the green economy, we are mobilizing resources from the Joint SDG fund to expand access to more nutritious sources of food in order to improve health outcomes and educational performance across Samoa. To help reach this goal, we have supported a range of national dialogues on reimagining food systems and are currently implementing a joint FAO–WFP programme to strengthen food value chains and change consumption patterns.

Although considerable work is underway, Samoa’s progress towards achieving the SDGs will remain slow unless access to more sustainable sources of development financing for mid-income Small Island Developing States is made available.

Redesigning social contracts and expanding access to adequately financed quality education is a prerequisite for building long term resilience in SIDS; and one which our UN team in Samoa is working hard to deliver.

Simona Marinescu, Ph.D. is UN Resident Coordinator for Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue, Tokelau. This article was written with editorial support from the Development Coordination Office (DCO).

To learn more visit: https://samoa.un.org/.

IPS UN Bureau

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');  

Onyango Otieno says that being diagnosed with depression allowed him to confront the mental health illness.

Palestinian journalist, Mohammad Awad, reporting from the field. Credit: UNESCO

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 10 2022 (IPS)

The United Nations has singled out 42 countries (out of 193 member states) for condemnation– virtually blacklisting them– for retaliating against human rights activists and journalists

If you cooperate with the United Nations and complain about human rights abuses in your home country, chances are you will find yourself either jailed, persecuted, tortured or under government surveillance.

The 42 countries include some of the world’s worst authoritarian regimes with a notoriety for extensive human rights abuses.

Highlighting a number of “disturbing trends” over the past year, the annual report by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres details how people — mainly victims of human rights violations, human rights defenders and journalists – suffered reprisals and intimidation by States and non-State actors.

This included people being detained, targeted by restrictive legislation and surveilled both online and offline. People who tried to cooperate with the UN, or were perceived as doing so, were also affected.

In a third of the countries named in the report, individuals and groups, including civil society organizations (CSOs), either refrained from cooperating or only agreed to report their cases anonymously out of fear of reprisals.

“Despite positive developments, including pledges and shared commitments by Member States against reprisals, this report shows the extent to which people are pursued and persecuted for raising human rights concerns with the UN”.

“And we know that, shocking though this number is, many cases of reprisals are not even reported,” says Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ilze Brands Kehris.

The 42 States referred to in the report (which covers the period from 1 May 2021 to 30 April 2022) include Afghanistan, Andorra, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Brazil, Burundi, Cameroon, China, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, Kazakhstan, Laos People’s Democratic Republic, Libya, Maldives, Mali, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Philippines, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, State of Palestine, Thailand, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Viet Nam, and Yemen.

Police use water cannons to disperse anti-government protesters during a demonstration in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Sept. 24, 2022. Credit: Voice of America

Dr. Simon Adams, President and CEO of the Center for Victims of Torture, the largest international organization that treats survivors and advocates for an end to torture worldwide, told IPS the UN is an impartial humanitarian organization dedicated to the advancement of humanity.

“When some states or armed groups perceive civil society activists or journalists speaking to the United Nations as constituting a threat to their interests, they are violating the ‘faith in fundamental human rights’ that the UN Charter proudly encapsulates,” he said.

‘We the peoples,’ where ever we may be in the world, have a right to speak directly to UN representatives without some malevolent authority leaning over our shoulders, tapping our phone, or threatening us with detention or disappearance,” he said.

Human rights defenders in the countries mentioned in the UN Secretary-General’s report not only deserve our respect and solidarity, they need protection, declared Dr Adams.

When Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last week congratulated Ales Bialiatski and the organizations Memorial and the Centre for Civil Liberties on being awarded the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, he said this year’s recognition shines a spotlight on the power of civil society in advance of peace. 

“Civil society groups (CSOs) are the oxygen of democracy, and catalysts for peace, social progress and economic growth. They help keep governments accountable and carry the voices of the vulnerable into the halls of power”.  

Yet today, civic space is narrowing across the world, the Secretary-General warned.  

“Human rights defenders, women’s rights advocates, environmental activists, journalists and others face arbitrary arrest, harsh prison sentences, smear campaigns, crippling fines and violent attacks,” he declared.

“As we congratulate this year’s winners, let us pledge to defend the brave defenders of universal values of peace, hope and dignity,” Guterres said.

Meanwhile, responding to a decision by the UN Human Rights Council’s (UNHRC), to establish an independent monitoring mechanism on the human rights situation in Russia, Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General, said her organization welcomes the decision to finally bring Russia’s human rights record under scrutiny.

Under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, she pointed out, “the country has seen its political opposition crushed, grassroots NGOs and activists outlawed, independent media shuttered, and civil society as a whole scorched to the ground”.

“Russia’s unlawful aggression in Ukraine could not be a clearer demonstration of Vladimir Putin’s longstanding disregard for life and human rights.”

Callamard said the establishment of this important mechanism will be a long overdue lifeline to civil society in Russia, independent media and many others standing up to repression.

“We call on all states to support the swift establishment of this monitoring and reporting mandate, and to fully support victims of human rights and humanitarian law violations committed by the national authorities”.

“We call on the Russian authorities to heed the clear message that the Human Rights Council sends with the establishment of this mechanism, and to fundamentally change course to cease its violations at home and abroad,” she declared.

Providing an update on the military regime in Myanmar, UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric told reporters October 6, that according to UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization), at least 170 journalists have been arrested since the military takeover in Myanmar in February last year.

Nearly 70 journalists, including 12 women, remain under detention. UNESCO has also recorded over 200 incidents of media repression, including killings, arrests, detention, criminal cases, imprisonments, and raids of editorial offices.

Forty-four journalists, which include seven women, have been sentenced for criminal offences by local courts, he said. Also, media workers report that they experience digital surveillance of mobile phones and social media platforms. UNESCO remains committed to protecting and defending their press freedom.

Meanwhile, the UN report said the surveillance of individuals and groups who cooperate with the UN continued to be reported in all regions with growing evidence of online surveillance and cyberattacks. The massive digital shift accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic also increased challenges relating to cyber-security, privacy, and access to online spaces.

Another concerning global trend is the use and impact of restrictive legislation that prevents and punishes cooperation with the UN, resulting in some cases of people being sentenced to long prison terms or placed under house arrest. There were recurring and similar allegations of intimidation reported in a number of countries, which could indicate a pattern.

Another global trend is self-censorship, choosing not to cooperate with the UN or doing so anonymously amid concerns for their safety. Increased surveillance and monitoring, as well as the fear of criminal liability, have created what the report terms a “chilling effect” of silence, stopping people from cooperating further with the UN and deterring others from doing so, according to the report.

As in previous years, the report shows that intimidation and reprisals disproportionally affect certain populations and groups, including representatives of indigenous peoples, minorities or those who work on environment and climate change issues, as well as people who may suffer discrimination based on age, sexual orientation and gender.

“The risks affecting women victims, as well as women human rights defenders and peace builders, who share testimony and cooperate with the UN remain daunting. We will continue to work to ensure that all can safely engage with the UN,” Brands Kehris stressed, as she presented the report to the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

The report, entitled ‘Cooperation with the United Nations, its representatives and mechanisms in the field of human rights’ (A/HRC/51/47), including extensive annexes detailing cases country by country, can be accessed online.

https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/thematic-reports/ahrc5147-cooperation-united-nations-its-representatives-and-mechanisms

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');  

Russian mercenaries look set to profit from the new junta that has seized power in Burkina Faso.

President Muhammadu Buhari ordered a review of safety measures in the country's water systems.

Kenya's Ruth Chepngetich misses the world record by 14 seconds as she wins her second consecutive Chicago Marathon.

Both sides in the two-year long civil war in northern Ethiopia have agreed to attend peace talks in South Africa.

Senior officials are called for questioning after 66 children died with acute kidney injuries.

Ethiopia's conflict has led to those in hospital needlessly dying, a doctor in Tigray tells the BBC.

WHO warns that four cough syrups could be linked to the deaths of 66 children in The Gambia.

British-Nigerian fashion designer Abigail Ajobi talks about how her culture influenced her latest collection.