Africa

By Edgardo Ayala
SUCHITOTO, El Salvador, Nov 11 2022 (IPS)

Several community-run water projects powered by solar energy have improved the quality of life of thousands of rural families in areas that were the scene of heavy fighting during El Salvador’s civil war in the 1980s.

The families now have running water, thanks to a collective effort launched when the war ended in 1992, after they returned to their former homes, which they had fled years earlier because of the intense fighting.

The largest of these community water systems driven by solar power is located in the canton of El Zapote, Suchitoto municipality, in the central Salvadoran department of Cuscatlán.

 

 

“The first step was to come together and buy this place to drill the well, do tests and build the tank, and we had a lot of help from other organizations that supported us,” Ángela Pineda, president of the Zapote-Platanares Community-Rural Association for Water, Health and the Environment, told IPS.

The association is a “junta de agua” or water board, which are community organizations that bring water to remote areas of El Salvador where the government does not have the capacity to supply it, such as the one installed in the canton of El Zapote.

There are an estimated 2,500 water boards in the country, providing service to 25 percent of the population, or some 1.6 million people. The vast majority of them operate with energy from the national power grid.

But five of the boards, located in the vicinity of Suchitoto, obtained financial support from organizations such as Companion Communities Development Alternatives (CoCoDA), based in Indianapolis, Indiana, for taking a technological leap towards operating with solar energy.

“The advantage is that the systems are powered by clean, renewable energies that do not pollute the environment,” Karilyn Vides, director of operations in El Salvador for the U.S.-based CoCoDA, told IPS.

Four previous projects of this type, supported since 2010 by CoCoDA, were small, with less than 10 solar panels. But the one mounted in the canton of El Zapote was planned to be equipped with 96 panels, when it was conceived in 2021.

It was inaugurated in June 2022, although it had been operating since 2004, with hydropower from the national grid.

This effort benefits more than 2,500 families settled around Suchitoto and on the slopes of Guazapa mountain which during the 12-year civil war was a stronghold of the then guerrilla Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN), now a political party that governed the country between 2009 and 2019.

However, when including the four other small solar water projects, plus five that continue to operate with electricity from the national grid, all financially supported by CoCoDA after the end of the war, the total number of beneficiaries climbs to 10,000 people.

El Salvador’s bloody armed conflict left some 75,000 people dead and more than 8,000 missing. between 1980 and 1992.

In each of the three global food crises studied, financial speculation has caused steep increases in prices, making food inaccessible to hundreds of millions of people. Credit: Bigstock

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Nov 11 2022 (IPS)

While grain exports continue to regularly flow to world’s markets since the July 2022 Turkey-brokered agreement between Russia and Ukraine to resume cereals and fertilisers shipments from both countries, food prices are still skyrocketing everywhere. How come?

The handiest answer by establishment politicians and media is that it’s all about the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February.

A small number of corporations exercise a high degree of influence over the global industrial food system, powered by mergers and acquisitions of one another to form giant mega-corporations, which enable further concentration horizontally and vertically, as well as influence over policy-making and governance nationally and globally

Another argument they use is that it is Russia who interrupted its gas and oil exports, omitting the fact that it is West US-led sanctions that have drastically cut this flow to mostly European markets, causing a steady rise in energy costs, food transportation, etcetera.

Nonetheless, such answers clearly ignore other structural causes: the dominant markets’ shocking speculations.

“It is true that the Russian invasion against Ukraine disrupted global markets, and that prices are skyrocketing. But that also tells us that markets are part of the problem,” last April warned Michael Fakhri, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, 2022.

 

Political failure

In his report to the United Nations Security Council, the Special Rapporteur stated that hunger and famine, like conflicts, are always the result of “political failures.”

Specifically, explains Michael Fakhri, “Markets are amplifying shocks and not absorbing them… food prices are soaring not because of a problem with supply and demand as such; it is because of price speculation in commodity futures markets.”

 

Blocking the solutions

The current food crisis is caused by “international failures,” he said, while providing two points in conclusion:

– For over two years, people and civil society organisations around the world have been raising the alarm about the food crisis. For over two years, they have been calling for an international coordinated response to the food crisis.

– And yet Member States have refused to mobilise the Rome-based agencies and other UN organisations to respond to the food crisis in a coordinated way.

According to Michael Fakhri, some Member States and civil society organisations tried to get the CFS to pass a resolution last October in order for it to be the place to enable global policy coordination around the food crisis.

“And yet some powerful countries – some members of the P5 [the five permanent, veto-holder prowers]– actively blocked that initiative. This undermined the world’s ability to respond to the food crisis.”

 

Food “nationalism”

Meanwhile, in a 7 November 2022 dossier by Focus on the Global South, Shalmali Guttal warned that a perfect storm is brewing in the global food system, pushing food prices to record high levels, and expanding hunger.

“As international institutions struggle to respond, some governments have resorted to knee-jerk ‘food nationalism’ by placing export bans to preserve their own food supplies and stabilise prices….”

In its dossier, researchers from Focus on the Global South write about various aspects of the current crisis, its causes, and how it is impacting countries in Asia.

 

Corporations fuelling the crisis

These include regional analysis, case studies from Sri Lanka, Philippines and India, “the role of corporations in fuelling the crisis and the flawed responses of international institutions such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the Bretton Woods Institutions and United Nations agencies.”

The recently released State of Food Insecurity and Nutrition in the World 2022 (SOFI 2022) report presents a sobering picture of the failure of global efforts to end hunger, malnutrition and food insecurity. According to SOFI 21, “even before the Covid-19 pandemic struck in 2020, world hunger levels were abysmally high.”

 

Markets concentration and speculation

In their recent analysis: A food crisis not of their making, CP Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh, said:

Governments, and multilateral and international agencies are by and large apportioning the lion’s share of the blame for the current world food crisis to global supply shortages arising from the war on Ukraine, ignoring the persisting impacts in low- and middle-income countries of “the market forces of concentration and speculation, of globally determined macroeconomic processes, and the collapse of livelihood opportunities affecting these countries in the post-Covid world.”

 

World food system dominated by markets

Central to recurring food price volatility, food crises and the entrenchment of hunger and food insecurity are “market structures, regulations, and trade and finance arrangements that bolster a global corporate-dominated industrial food system, and enable market concentration and financial speculation in commodity markets.”

 

Excessive speculation

Furthermore, an analysis by the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food) indicates that the kind of “excessive speculation” seen in 2007-2008 that triggered food price spikes may be back.

“Multilevel market concentration and financial speculation on commodity markets have played pivotal roles in past and the present food crises and present grave threats to the realisation of the Right to Food.”

In addition, a historical examination of food crises over the past 50 years by professor Jennifer Clapp shows that the global industrial food system has been rendered more prone to price volatility and more susceptible to crises because of three interrelated manifestations of corporate concentration:

– First, the global industrial food system relies on a small number of staple grains produced using highly industrialised farming methods, making the system susceptible to events that affect just a handful of crops and to rising costs of industrial farm inputs.

– Second, a small number of countries specialise in the production of staple grains for export, on which many other countries depend, including many of the poorest and most food-insecure countries.

– And third, the global grain trade is dominated by a small number of firms in highly financialized commodity markets that are prone to volatility (IPES-Food 2022; FAO 2022; OECD and FAO 2020).”

 

Mega corporations

On this, Jennifer Clapp, professor and Canada Research Chair, School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, explains that “a small number of corporations exercise a high degree of influence over the global industrial food system, powered by mergers and acquisitions of one another to form giant mega-corporations, which enable further concentration horizontally and vertically, as well as influence over policy-making and governance nationally and globally.”

According to Clapp, “four grain trading corporations– Archer-Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Dreyfus, called the ‘ABCD’– control 70-90 % of the grain trade.”

As “cross-sectoral value chain managers” these grain trading giants are able to compile large amounts of market data, but are under no obligation to disclose this information and can hold stocks until prices have peaked, explains the expert.

“And in each of the three global food crises studied, financial speculation has caused steep increases in prices, making food inaccessible to hundreds of millions of people.”

 

A campus at one of Nigeria's universities. The recent strike has put the spotlight on the West African country's brain drain. Credit: Pius Adeleye​/IPS​

By Pius Adeleye
Abuja, Nov 11 2022 (IPS)

For eight months, the halls of Nigeria’s universities and colleges remained silent – the result of a lecturers’ strike brought upon by a wage and conditions of service dispute.

Finally, after intense negotiations, the Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) suspended the strike at a meeting mediated by the House of Representatives. The lecturers returned to work, but the question now is what impact it will have on Nigeria’s already problematic brain drain.

The deal struck included that ASUU is no longer the sole representative of public university lecturers in Nigeria. On October 4, the Federal Government of Nigeria approved the registration of two other academic unions: the Congress Of Nigerian University Academics (CONUA) and the Nigerian Association Of Medical Dental Academics (NAMDA).

Long before Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999, the departure of Nigerian intellectuals, skilled personnel, and health professionals abroad has been a consistent trend.

However, the lecturers’ strike put the problem firmly in the spotlight.

Although brain drain is an issue that cuts across African borders, the rate at which professionals in Nigeria’s education sector leave is the worst on the continent.

“Knowledge is a global product that could be needed anywhere in the world—and people go to places where they are valuable and needed,” said Dr Olatunji Abdulganiy, a lecturer and the secretary of ASUU, University of Ilorin. “In those countries where they go, you will find good governance and better service conditions.”

In January 2021, the National Universities Commission (NUC), an agency under the Federal Ministry of Education that ensures a productive university system, reported that only 100,000 lecturers attended to 2.1 million university students in Nigeria. This proportion means Nigerian universities are glaringly understaffed.

“Many departments in Nigeria’s public universities borrow virtually everything to pass NUC accreditation. Some do not only borrow staff, but they go as far as borrowing heads of department,” Magnus Nwoko, a lecturer at the Federal University of Technology Owerri, tells IPS.

“In some public universities, lecturers teach courses they did not study, and while the government spends huge amounts of money training lecturers in European, Asian, and American countries through TETFUND, these lecturers often prefer to work in those developed countries,” he lamented.

In August 2022, the leadership of ASUU bemoaned the increasing rate of brain drain in public universities. According to the academic union, since the commencement of the strike in February 2022, about 70 percent of young lecturers have left Nigeria for opportunities in other countries, while the mass resignation of academic workers in public universities continues to weaken Nigerian higher institutions.

“In the past decades, Nigerian lecturers would acquire knowledge in any country and return. The nation also had many foreign lecturers—from England, Ghana, South Africa, and other countries in our public universities. However, the country now has few foreign nationals; this happens when successive governments become less responsive and sensitive,” said Abdulganiy.

Aside from the ongoing strikes and the flawed system that contributes to the increasing rate of brain drain, insecurity in Nigeria is a big factor that fosters the mass exodus of intellectuals. According to a recent AfroBarometer survey data, abductions and kidnappings “rank at the top” of crimes and insecurities in Nigeria— and the kidnappings in Abuja, Kogi, Delta, Nasarawa, Abia and Kastina indicate that academic workers are not spared in this frightening challenges of insecurity and crime.

However, while the strike may be over, discontent over working conditions in many professions continues. In early October, the umbrella body for medical doctors in the country Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), hinted at a shutdown. NMA President Uche Rowland said the government should declare a state of emergency in the health sector – saying doctors were poorly paid, overworked, and often work in under-resourced facilities.

The Nigeria Medical Association (NMA), an umbrella body of medical doctors practicing in the country, has hinted at a possible shutdown if the government fails to address the challenges its members face.

The association said the challenges had contributed significantly to the brain drain.

Rowland called on the Nigerian government to declare a state of emergency in the country’s health sector – noting that doctors in the public sector are poorly paid, overworked, work in environments without basic facilities “and have become a target for kidnapping.”

Research by the development Research and Project Centre (dRPC) also indicates that nurses leave the country in droves. A recent report showed that between 2019 and mid-2022, at least 4,460 nurses migrated from Nigeria to the United Kingdom.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Stability in the Sahel will come not through the rule of the gun but through the rule of law. The Biden administration can use the Africa Leaders’ Summit to reset approaches to the Sahel. Credit: William Lloyd-George/IPS

By Doussouba Konate
BAMAKO, Nov 11 2022 (IPS)

The upcoming Africa Leaders’ Summit– slated to take place in Washington, DC in December- is well-timed. The Biden administration has made a welcome and significant push over the past two years to support democracy, anti-corruption and peace-building around the world- and in Africa in particular.

From the Summit for Democracy to the new Sub-Saharan Africa and Countering Corruption strategies- policies and practices within the US government have shifted in ways that can support much needed reforms across the continent.

It is in the Sahel where many of the biggest challenges remain- and these should be a priority during the upcoming Summit. The recent coup in Burkina Faso was the 7th in Africa in just over two years. Here in Mali, jihadists continue to march eastwards, killing hundreds of innocent civilians as they go.

It is in the Sahel where many of the biggest challenges remain- and these should be a priority during the upcoming Summit. The recent coup in Burkina Faso was the 7th in Africa in just over two years. Here in Mali, jihadists continue to march eastwards, killing hundreds of innocent civilians as they go

Across our borders in Niger and Chad we see klepto-military elites pilfering state resources at a breathtaking rate, undermining public finances, stability and any kind of hope for a better future. All of this opens up the region to the influence of Russia and China. The Russian mercenary outfit the Wagner group are operating freely in the Central African Republic and Mali, for example- and we know from Syria and Ukraine how catastrophic this can be.

Focusing on the symptoms of these problems- such as rising violent extremism- with militarized responses has never worked. After 9 years and more than $880 million of euros for the Barkhane operation, the French found this out in Mali before being forced out of the country recently.

Now, the people of Burkina Faso are demanding a diplomatic break with France and a new partnership with Russia and possibly the Wagner Group. The Western democratic alliance has failed in the Sahel; and this has inevitably led to a tilt towards more authoritarian partners.

Equally, allowing post-coup militarized regimes to get away with the trappings of a transition plan for democracy without putting in place any meaningful changes in decision-making is also a mistake.

The regime in Mali has consistently postponed the hand-over of power to a civilian government since the coup last year; and the process to develop a transitional charter in Burkina Faso recently also gives no indication that there is any real intention to hand back power to elected representatives.

At their core, these are issues of governance. Stability in the Sahel will come not through the rule of the gun but through the rule of law. The Biden administration can use the Africa Leaders’ Summit to reset approaches to the Sahel.

First, it must make anti-corruption front and center of every conversation with leaders from the region. The US Africa strategy lists openness and open societies as the 1st of four priorities- and now is the time for the US to follow-through on these.

At the same time there is work to be done at home- progress on critical domestic anti-corruption efforts in the US- such as passage of the Enablers Act and full implementation of the Corporate Transparency Act would demonstrate commitment to these issues.

Second, it is imperative that it is made clear that post-coup political agreements include a focus on citizen voices and bottom-up accountability. This means pushing those in power to conduct meaningful consultations with civilians to ensure even the most excluded are heard.

In Mali, the transitional authorities have launched “Assises Nationales de la Refondation de l’Etat“- a series of consultations at the communal and national levels to give the entire population a voice on key issues such as governance and justice. We have to make sure that these kinds of processes are meaningful, inclusive and backed with real implementation- otherwise they can lead to further disappointment and disengagement.

Third, whether within a post-coup environment or more generally it means finding larger ways to shift systems to slowly remove the military from politics and consolidate civilian control of decision-making.

This sounds difficult but we forget that it has been done successfully before in Mali. Following Amadou Toumani Touré’s coup in 1991, power was returned to a civilian government, allowing Alpha Oumar Konaré to be elected president in 1992.

In the Sahel, we need among other reforms, a shift in civilian law enforcement to other bodies such as the police; empowerment of accountability institutions within militaries; and political work with reformists within the army to push for a return of troops to their barracks. The US must also fully support regional organizations like the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) to push Sahelian countries to follow clear plans, processes and timelines for the return to or maintenance of civilian rule.

Finally, longer-term stability in our countries requires a fundamental generational shift. The median age in Mali is 16; in Niger it is just 15 years old. Our countries are passing through a massive demographic change- and this has to be reflected in the systems we use to govern ourselves, or extremist groups will continue to recruit young people that have more of a stake in overthrowing systems than rebuilding them.

The US cares about young people on paper– now is the time to create the spaces for a new generation to lead. After all, they cannot be any worse than the corrupt elites we have seen mismanaging our politics for decades.

The African Leaders Summit is an important opportunity for the US to reinforce its commitment to governance in the Sahel; and to a foreign policy that places a primacy on governance and inclusion rather than simply on economics and security. The people of the region deserve it.

Doussouba Konate is Director of Accountability Lab Mali and an Obama Foundation leader. Follow the Lab on Twitter @accountlab

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By External Source
Nov 11 2022 (IPS-Partners)

 
Justin van Fleet, Ph.D, is President of Theirworld and Executive Director of the Global Business Coalition for Education. Justin previously served as the Director of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity and Chief of Staff to the United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education and prior to that as a Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Universal Education.

ECW: Theirworld is a founding member of Education Cannot Wait. Why did you put so much effort into establishing the United Nations global fund for education in emergencies and protracted crises?

Justin van Fleet: At Theirworld we want to “unlock big change” for the world’s children. That means we are constantly looking for opportunities to bring people together through advocacy and campaigning to create a real difference.

When war in Syria forced millions to flee, we stepped in. We worked hard to bring together partners to campaign for better education for refugees, and helped to develop a blueprint for double-shift schools in Lebanon, which has helped hundreds of thousands of children to learn and thrive.

But we realized that education was often an afterthought in emergencies, compared to the urgency given to providing services like food, water and shelter. There was no coordinated global response to mobilize education resources in emergency situations. We decided it was time to create a dedicated global fund to address this issue systemically.

We set to work, mobilizing a coalition of youth campaigners, education experts, and more than 60 leading NGOs. At the World Humanitarian Summit in May 2016 – the first of its kind – we helped deliver the Safe Schools petition. With more than 250,000 signatures, that petition led directly to the creation of Education Cannot Wait.

ECW: ECW and our strategic partners have reached 7 million children and adolescents in the world’s toughest contexts with the safety, hope and opportunity of education. ECW has a proven model to take it to scale together with multiple partners, including Theirworld. Where do you see the greatest needs?

Justin van Fleet: Protecting early childhood education (ECE) in emergencies is absolutely critical. Quality ECE aids the healing process for children who have been through trauma or displacement; supports their cognitive, emotional and physical development; and sets the foundation for a successful future.

We know from extensive research that the first five years of a child’s life are among the most important in terms of healthy development. A child’s brain goes through 90% of its development in these years, yet as a global community we dedicate just 1.2% of education aid in these years.

That fact should shock us all, and it’s why we are launching a major campaign next year, calling on world leaders to invest what’s needed into ECE. This is a major priority for us, and we’re looking forward to working with other organisations on behalf of the world’s under-5s.

ECW: Today, there are 222 million crisis-impacted children and adolescents who urgently need education support. Why should donors, governments, the private sector and high-net-worth individuals step up to fund ECW’s Strategic Plan at ECW’s High-Level Financing Conference next February in Geneva to realize #222MillionDreams?

Justin van Fleet: So many crises affect the world today, and they are only increasing in number. Conflict, natural disasters and other emergencies all force people to flee their homes, further fueling the education crisis. If we want to stand any chance of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4 – inclusive and equitable quality education for all by 2030 – we must tackle education in emergencies. Governments and donors must step up and show their support for Education Cannot Wait in Geneva.

ECW: At the UN Secretary-General’s Transforming Education Summit Theirworld mobilized inspiring global youth ambassadors through the #LetMeLearn Campaign. How can we take the lessons learned from the TES and the campaign to activate a global movement to leave no child behind?

Justin van Fleet: Today’s young people are truly a force to be reckoned with. At Theirworld we run the Global Youth Ambassador programme, a network of young activists from across the globe working together to end the global education crisis.

In recent years we have expanded the programme, and now have 2,000 young people enrolled in this year’s cohort from 120 countries. Many of them have grown up facing adversity and know from personal experience what a positive force education can be.

These young people drove our #LetMeLearn campaign. They posted passionate videos on social media calling on world leaders to listen and act on their demands for quality education. It was thanks to their determination and support that the campaign grew into a global movement. Campaigning is the best way for young people to make a difference on the education crisis, so if anyone reading is interested in joining the programme, they can find out more here.

ECW: With the Nationale Postcode Loterij, Theirworld supported ECW investments in response to the influx of refugees and asylum seekers from places like Afghanistan and Syria to the Greek Islands. Why is investing in education in crisis-impacted countries across the world important for the people of Europe?

Justin van Fleet: Investing in education is vital if we want to live in a safer, healthier and wealthier world. We know that quality education aids economic growth, reduces a family’s exposure to poverty and decreases the risk of conflict. Wherever refugees suffer from disrupted education, it is vital that we make sure they have access to the same education as other children so they can make an even greater contribution to their host country and, hopefully, return to help rebuild their home country.

But we also need to support children when they arrive at our shores from countries like Syria, Afghanistan and, more recently, Ukraine. In 2020, Theirworld developed a blueprint to get every child refugee in Greece back into school. That blueprint was adopted last year by the Greek government and UNICEF, who committed to providing a route for 26,000 school-age refugee children into formal education over three years. By providing hope and opportunity for young people, regardless of where they have come from, they will be better prepared to create a better future for their family and community.

ECW: You are also Executive Director of the Global Business Coalition for Education. How can we inspire more private sector companies to follow the example of The LEGO Foundation, Postcode Lottery, Verizon, Porticus and HP to fund ECW? Why is investing in education for crisis-impacted children a sound investment for businesses and the economy worldwide?

Justin van Fleet: Businesses recognize that investing in education is important not just as a fundamental human right, but also a smart investment. It fuels the next generation of talent, innovation and economic growth.

Supporting causes like education also helps engage employees around a company’s broader purpose. Employees increasingly feel that when their purpose is aligned with their employer’s, the benefits expand to include stronger employee engagement, heightened loyalty and a greater willingness to recommend the company to others.

A great example of a company using its core business to support education in emergencies is in response to the conflict in Ukraine. We have been working closely with HP and Microsoft to implement a $30 million partnership to deliver laptops and learning devices to displaced children and teachers in Ukraine and the surrounding countries, so they can connect to education. Together we are helping to keep learning alive for children whose lives have been turned upside down.

ECW: You were a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Universal Education and reading is a key part of every child’s education. What are the 2-3 books that have most influenced you personally and professionally and why would you recommend them to others?

Justin van Fleet: Safi Bahcall’s book Loonshots is a timely reminder that throughout history, great things have been achieved that at times seemed impossible, and that there are a variety of different people who make up the teams which nurture ‘crazy’ ideas and transform society.

I also recently read Caste by Isabel Wilkerson and found it to be a very poignant reminder of how systems of granting or withholding privileges, resources and kindness can be so easily created and legally reinforced, with profound impacts for generations. It’s not enough to simply recognize their existence, but important to take purposeful and deliberate action to dismantle them.

Lastly, Janesville by Amy Goldstein explores middle America and reminds me very much of my hometown in rural Appalachia. It covers the great recession around 2008 and shows how waves of fortune and misfortune affect people in rich and poor countries alike. The book demonstrates how people are often thrust into situations of poverty due to circumstances beyond their control, as the result of economics, business decisions and politics. As such, it is a useful reminder of the importance of humility.

The global population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022, and India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, according to World Population Prospects 2022, released on World Population Day commemorated annually on July 11. Credit: UNFPA

By Kathleen Mogelgaard
WASHINGTON DC, Nov 11 2022 (IPS)

Global population is about to reach 8 billion, a mere 11 years after it reached 7 billion. The official Day of 8 Billion is observed by the UN November 15, though it’s hard to pinpoint exactly when we pass the actual milestone.

With hashtags like #8billionstrong, the discourse around adding another billion people to the world’s population since 2011 seems heavy on positive spin. Some economists and pundits argue population growth (or “superabundance” as one new book frames it) is a good thing for the economy and innovation.

UN Secretary General António Guterres called it “an occasion to celebrate diversity and advancement.” UN Population Fund (UNFPA) Executive Director Dr. Natalia Kanem said, “People are the solution, not the problem….A resilient world of 8 billion…offers infinite possibilities.”

But it’s more complicated than that.

While reaching 8 billion doesn’t mean we are fated to keep adding a billion people to the population every decade — UN projections indicate population growth will level off later in this century – continued population growth is not without its challenges.

Optimistic media takes on the 8 billion milestone tend to gloss over how continued growth could adversely affect people and the planet, including the climate and environment, food security, water, health, civil conflict, refugees, displacement, and widening global inequity.

Kathleen Mogelgaard

For a more complete picture of how this might play out, it’s important keep six fundamental points in mind:

1. Global population growth will continue but it’s slowing down

We’re currently adding about 70 million people to the population annually (about 0.9 percent). According to its medium growth scenario, the UN projects we’ll reach 9.7 billion by 2050. By that time annual growth is expected to have slowed to around 40 million per year (less than 0.5 percent). By the 2080s it’s expected to level off, with the population reaching 10.4 billion, then staying stable through 2100.

2. No, covid is not a big factor

According to the UN projections, it doesn’t appear likely that the covid-19 pandemic will have much impact on global population trends this century. While many people died from covid earlier than they would have otherwise, that effect is a blip on the screen – it won’t significantly change long-term global mortality and life expectancy. And despite talk of a covid baby boom last year, UN demographers found this year that covid’s impact on longer term fertility rates (the number of births per women of reproductive age) are mixed and highly uncertain.

3. Growth won’t be uniform; some places will experience much more than others

Demographically speaking, the world is becoming increasingly polarized. In some countries, especially wealthier ones, population growth rates are already low and will fall fast. For example, according to UN projections, over 30 countries in Europe and parts of Asia will reach a median age of 46 or older by 2040. That would lead to further declines in birth rates.

Future population growth will be more and more concentrated in other countries with higher fertility rates and more youthful age structures. The UN projects sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia will retain their young demographics in 2040, with more than half of their populations under the age of 25.

That will drive higher population growth in certain areas, for example in the Sahel region of Africa, the Philippines, and among marginalized communities across the globe.

This is a deep equity issue. Younger age structures, higher fertility rates, and more population growth profoundly impact societies, economies, and governments, and limits their capacity to meet people’s needs.

4. Early child-bearing raises fertility rates

Average family size is shrinking globally, but in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and southern Asia, lifetime fertility rates have stalled or are declining very slowly, portending larger families. In many places, this is a function of early child-bearing. For example, in Niger where the average lifetime fertility rate is about seven births per woman, more than three quarters of girls are married before age 18. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, each year more than 10% of adolescent females bear a child.

5. Youthful age structures will drive growth in the first half of this century

A “youth bulge” or large proportion of young people in a national population today creates momentum which all but guarantees the number people of reproductive age will grow through 2050. UN demographers project that this will drive about two-thirds of global population growth over the next two decades.

6. Projections are not predictions

None of this is set in stone. UN projections do not account for many variables that could affect the population growth curve, from wealth to warfare. What governments and the international donor community choose to invest in may change variables that could profoundly influence outcomes.

Suppose they focus on countries and regions with high population growth, and invest in programs which help girls stay in school, ensure greater access to family planning services, and help women exercise their rights and reproductive autonomy.

Not only are these important objectives in their own right, we also know from experience they encourage delayed childbirth, smaller families, and lower fertility rates, which would drive population growth down.

By itself, population growth won’t determine whether we can achieve a sustainable future. But it will be a significant factor, and it’s one we can influence positively. In that sense, the population passing 8 billion is an opportunity.

It’s a chance to finish the work of upholding rights and reproductive autonomy for women and girls, and reduce the stresses higher growth would place on our climate, environment, health, food, water, and security.

It illustrates the need to shift disproportionate impacts of high growth on poor countries toward greater equity, helping stabilize some of the world’s most precarious places, which in turn strengthens global stability.

If we determine to do these things now, then the Day of 8 Billion could be cause for celebration.

Kathleen Mogelgaard is the president and CEO of the Population Institute. On November 15 she will participate in “Toward Peak Population” a free online dialog on population growth with experts and officials from around the world, hosted by Foreign Policy Magazine.

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A selection of the best photos from across Africa and beyond this week.

The BBC got rare access to Mubende, one of the two districts at the epicentre of the Ebola outbreak in Uganda.

The Confederation of African Football supports global body Fifa's call for unity and inclusion ahead of the World Cup in Qatar.

Moroccan hosts AS FAR set up a Women's African Champions League final clash against defending champions Mamelodi Sundowns.

Credit: UN Photo/Amanda Voisard

By A.H. Monjurul Kabir
NEW YORK, Nov 10 2022 (IPS)

We are living in a world where both our bilateral and multilateral achievements, consensuses on human rights and social justice, and our resolve to public good are being tested like never before.

Now, more than ever, we need to bring to life the values and principles of the UN Charter in every corner of the world. Due to the powers vested in its Charter and its unique international character, the UN can act on the issues confronting humanity, including:

• Maintain international peace and security
• Protect human rights
• Deliver humanitarian aid
• Promote sustainable development
• Uphold international law

Given my own personal trajectory in human rights advocacy and development cooperation, let me focus on aspects of sustainable development and consider whether we need to change and adopt any new approach to it to end extreme poverty, reduce inequalities, and rescue the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from exclusionary practices.

Development or Sustainable Development must be inclusive: In fact, inclusion at the heart of Development Cooperation. Inclusive development is the concept that every person, regardless of their identity, is instrumental in transforming their societies.

Development processes that are inclusive yield better outcomes for the communities that embark upon them. The UN was created to promote the rights and inclusion of marginalized and underrepresented populations in the development process and leads the UN’s response to addressing the needs and demands of those in in adversity and youth.

Therefore, the UN implements activities that combat stigma and discrimination, promote empowerment and inclusion of marginalized or underrepresented groups, and improve the lives of populations in high-risk situations.

It is important that we also adopt this in institutional and management settings: For example, UN Asia Network for Diversity and Inclusion (UN-ANDI) recently conducted its first survey on Racism and Racial Discrimination in five languages.

The survey was intended to capture data reflecting the Asian perspective in the UN system. It is planning to issue a report on the survey’s findings to support and address many critical issues of racism and racial discrimination. There are other networks who are addressing different elements of intersectionality including but not limited to, gender, disability, ethnicity, identity etc.

So, the world and its challenges have become much more intersectional, which calls for a robust and intersectional approach to development cooperation.

Intersectional Approach: An intersectionality lens allows us to see how social policy may affect people differently, depending on their specific set of ‘locations,’ and what unintended consequences particular policies may have on their individual lives.

By listening to the most marginalized and/or disadvantaged groups of a community, development organizations can help combat oppression at all levels of society and rebuild communities from the ground up.

Take the example of Persons with Disabilities. They are not a homogenous group, and this should be reflected in our policy advocacy and communications by considering intersectionality—the intersection of disability together with other factors, such as gender, age, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, refugee, migrant or asylum seeker status.

For example, a person with disability also has a gender identity, may come from an Indigenous group and be young, old, a migrant or live in poverty.

At the UN System, it is time to adopt an intersectional approach in our development cooperation, policy advocacy, programming, operational support, planning and budgeting. An intersectional approach considers the historical, social, and political context and recognizes the unique experience of the individual based on the intersection of all relevant grounds.

This approach allows the experience of discrimination, based on the confluence of grounds involved, to be acknowledged and remedied. Using an intersectionality lens to approach our development practice means moving beyond the use of singular categories to understand people and groups and embracing the notion of inseparable and interconnected sets of social ‘locations’ that change through time, vary across places, and act together to shape an individual’s life experience and actions.

This would go a long way to contribute to the SDGs’ Leave No One Behind principle (LNOB). The new approach calls for invigorating existing practices, making them more innovative, effective, and efficient.

Innovation: We need to think of innovative approaches and instruments to attract and channel new resources to finance our developmental aspirations, as outlined in the 2030 SDGs now more than ever.

Reliable and well-administered development financial institutions with a well-defined mandate and sound governance framework will continue to be an important vehicle to accelerate inclusive economic and social development.

They can create new channels to crowd-in the private sector. Moreover, they can play a catalytical role by generating new knowledge, convening stakeholders, and providing technical assistance to build capacity in the private and public sectors. Mutual collaboration between and across public and private sector is critical to harness the full potential of innovation and innovative approaches.

Let us not forget new media’s growing impact on both inclusive participation leveraging innovative practices.

New Media: New media, including mobile and social media, could help demystify international institutions and encourage participation. The new media is also critical to widen the breadth of accessibility for persons with disabilities or those who live in rural and/or remote, hard to reach areas.

Alongside this, there could be more regular interactions by the leadership of intergovernmental organisations with multi-stakeholders including civil society, organisations of persons with disabilities, and the media, and the creation of accessible databases of statistical and other information and knowledge on their work.

Notwithstanding the Ukraine war, work at the UN continues. The world body can and should continue to play a constructive role in both development cooperation, crisis management, peace building, and post-conflict stabilization. It should continue to focus on crises from Afghanistan to Mali and Ukraine itself.

However, it must explore new and innovative and intersectional ways to support inclusive development, climate justice and resilience, peacekeeping, and other global and regional key priorities.

Otherwise, the SDGs will not be even near to their desired destination in 2030 or beyond.

Dr. A.H. Monjurul Kabir, currently Global Policy and UN System Coordination Adviser and Team Leader for Gender Equality, Disability Inclusion, and Intersectionality at UN Women HQ in New York, is a political scientist and senior policy and legal analyst on global issues and Asia-Pacific trends.

For policy and academic purposes, he can be contacted at monjurulkabir@yahoo.com and followed on twitter at mkabir2011

This article is from a blog based on a speech delivered by the author, in his personal capacity, at an event commemorating the UN’s 77th anniversary organized by UN-ANDI– a New York-based global network of like-minded Asian staff members of the UN system who strive to promote a more diverse and inclusive culture and mindset within the UN.

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Nuclear experts warn that ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons could have devastating death toll and destruction. This photo shows the war damage in Borodianka, Kyiv Oblast. Photo: Oleksandr Ratushniak / UNDP Ukraine

By Ed Holt
BRATISLAVA, Nov 10 2022 (IPS)

Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the conflict’s potential to escalate to the use of nuclear weapons has been highlighted by political analysts and military experts alike.

Now growingly bellicose rhetoric from Russian president Vladimir Putin, particularly following the illegal annexations of four parts of Ukraine at the end of September, has raised fears he may be seriously considering using them. He has been quoted in September this year as saying that Russia would use “all available means to protect Russia and our people”, but last month said there was no need to consider the use of nuclear weapons. This week Russia ordered troops to withdraw from the Dnieper River’s west bank near the southern city of Kherson.

But while much of the media debate around this prospect has focused on the expected use of a so-called low-yield “tactical” nuclear weapon and what this might mean strategically for either side in the war, anti-nuclear campaigners say any discussion should be reframed to reflect the devastating reality of what the use of even the smallest weapons in modern nuclear arsenals would mean.

They say that even if only one such bomb was dropped, be it in Ukraine or in any other conflict, the consequences would cause a country – if not a continent-wide catastrophe, with horrific immediate and long-term health effects and a subsequent humanitarian disaster on a scale almost certainly not seen before.

Moreover, they say, a single strike would almost certainly be met with a similar response, quickly igniting a full-scale nuclear war that would threaten much of human life on earth.

“There is no conceivable reality in which a nuclear weapon is used, and life goes on as normal. It is very, very likely that there would be escalation and additional nuclear weapons used, but even the use of one nuclear weapon would break a decades-long taboo on the use of the most catastrophic, horrific weapon ever created,” Alicia Sanders-Zakre, Research, and Policy Coordinator,  at the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) told IPS.

“We have already seen the global impacts of the war in Ukraine just using conventional weapons, including worldwide rising inflation, and energy and food shortages. But the use of a nuclear weapon would really have consequences beyond what any of us can imagine,” she added.

Since the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 – the only time nuclear weapons have been used in conflict – a number of states have built up nuclear arsenals, including bombs many times more powerful than those dropped on the two Japanese cities.

But they also include bombs that can be set to have varying explosive yields -which are measured in kilotons – including potentially in just single figures. For comparison, the devices dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had yields of around 15 kilotons.

These lower yield bombs are, unlike strategic nuclear weapons with yields in the hundreds of kilotons that, are specifically meant to cause mass destruction and serve a deterrent purpose, designed for use on a battlefield to counter overwhelming conventional forces.

The strategic thinking behind their use is that they could cause maximum damage to enemy troops in specific areas without the wider massive destruction caused by larger bombs.

This does not mean, though, that tactical nuclear weapons are not devastatingly lethal – an estimated 130,000 people were killed by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, while NUKEMAP predicts that even a 5-kiloton bomb detonation on Kyiv would leave more than 90,000 people dead, and injured.

Campaigners against nuclear weapons worry the global public is not being made properly aware of the scale of the loss of life and ecological damage which would be wrought by the use of such a weapon.

“There has been a lot of discussion about using a tactical nuclear bomb in Ukraine. But the use of the word ‘tactical’ is no more than a rebranding exercise to make a nuclear weapon sound like a conventional one,” Dr Ruth Mitchell, Board Chair of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), told IPS.

“A tactical nuclear weapon would be about the same size as the one dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and we don’t need to imagine what the effects would be; we have already seen them,” she added.

The death toll itself would be massive, but authorities would also have to deal with radioactive fallout possibly contaminating large areas, while the event itself would trigger massive population dislocation.

And a report by ICAN also shows that even the most advanced healthcare systems would be unable to provide any effective response in such a situation, highlighting the likely destruction of local healthcare facilities and staff and pointing out that the 1945 atomic bombing of Hiroshima destroyed 80% of its hospitals and killed almost all its doctors and nurses.

Healthcare staff in Ukraine have told IPS that preparations are being made at hospitals and healthcare facilities to respond to a nuclear attack, including plans for reprofiling wards and forming special teams of emergency staff to treat those affected both directly in the area of any strike and where needed in other parts of the country.

Meanwhile, authorities in cities have said potential evacuation centres have been set up, and supplies of potassium iodide, which can help block the absorption of harmful radiation by the thyroid gland, have been secured to be distributed if needed.

Some doctors have said they are also counting on international help for Ukraine’s healthcare response if the worst to happen.

But Mitchell said while admirable, such efforts were likely to be of little help.

“It is naïve to think there is a terrible amount that we can do in the event of use of a nuclear weapon against civilian populations, which is the only way any will ever be used. They will be used strategically, i.e., on a populous city. No one’s going to be dropping them in a paddock. It would be a massive disaster,” she said.

Some Ukrainian doctors admit they may not be able to provide much help.

“If the hospital is hit with a bomb then there won’t be much we can do,” Roman Fishchuk, a doctor at the Central City Clinical Hospital in Ivano-Frankivsk in western Ukraine told IPS.

Another key issue, Mitchell said, is the fact that any use of a nuclear weapon in a conflict situation, be it in Ukraine or anywhere else, would almost certainly not be left in isolation.

There would likely be a response in kind, followed by a very rapid escalation to nuclear war and multiple missile detonations, with terrifying planet-wide consequences, she said.

A recent report by experts studying the potential effects of a nuclear conflict concluded that while more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia, “even a war between India and Pakistan using less than 3% of the global nuclear arsenal” could result in famine for a third of Earth.

ICAN’s Sanders-Zakre explained that the current situation in Ukraine has only highlighted the need for nuclear weapons to be abolished across the world, and how more attention needs to be paid to experts pointing out their potential for civilisation-threatening destruction.

“What this shows is that we really need to listen to medical professionals, and organisations like IPPNW. They have been warning for decades about the consequences of using nuclear weapons, and we have learned from the catastrophic Covid-19 pandemic that it is essential that we listen to professionals and experts and take their expertise seriously, and it’s the same in this case with the use of a nuclear weapon,” she said.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, people are preparing for the worst. Some have begun stocking rooms converted into bomb shelters with food and other supplies they believe will help them ride out the aftermath of a nuclear strike. Others have been buying potassium iodide tablets.

But some say they have little faith they would survive any such attack and are just hoping it will never happen.

“The Health Ministry has given out advice on what to do if there is a nuclear attack, and I know some of the basic things to do, but I don’t feel like I’m prepared to deal with something like this if it happens. I just hope we won’t have to deal with this. It would be horror,” 23-year-old Kyiv resident Viktoria Marchenko (NOT REAL NAME) told IPS.

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Decision-making power is still held at the national and international level, often failing to (financially) enable local actors to lead climate action. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

By Anne Jellema
CAPETOWN, South Africa, Nov 9 2022 (IPS)

Imagine a world where the people hit hardest by climate crisis have a say in how to stop it. Imagine that youth, Indigenous Peoples, women, and others most affected by global warming have the resources to implement their own climate solutions. Solutions that are highly effective because they meet local needs, suit the local context, and create sustainable economic opportunities for local people. This world would be one where people have a much better chance of surviving, and even thriving, despite the massive upheavals of the climate crisis.

 

Climate finance remains a pipe dream at local level

Decision-making power is still held at the national and international level, often failing to (financially) enable local actors to lead climate action. Even at national level, those most affected by climate change often have the least say in setting priorities for climate policy and funding

At the global level, to achieve the key commitments made in Paris, climate investment should count in trillions rather than billions. The 100 billion per year climate financing target from 2020 onwards has already been missed. Industrialized countries have overwhelmingly failed to provide anything close to the scale of climate financing needed – let alone the specific demand for a loss and damage financing facility.

And at the local level, although ever more governments and stakeholders understand the importance of shifting resources, leadership and agency to the local level, the world pictured above is still far from reach

To illustrate this, in 2017–18 only 20.5 percent of bilateral climate finance went to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and 3 percent to Small Island States (SIDS). It was often in the form of loans and other non-grant instruments, which risks plunging these already vulnerable countries further into debt. Even in the current meagre climate finance, according to some estimates, less than 10 percent actually flows to the local level.

 

Why?

There are many reasons why climate finance doesn’t end up at the local level.

Some are related to complex rules and requirements in accessing international funding, which local actors often lack the knowledge, network, skills and/or scale to comply with.

Moreover, most climate finance typically flows through international, rather than national or regional, intermediaries. Although international agencies currently have the most experience in navigating complex climate finance bureaucracies, they are also the furthest removed from local realities.

Decision-making power is still held at the national and international level, often failing to (financially) enable local actors to lead climate action. Even at national level, those most affected by climate change often have the least say in setting priorities for climate policy and funding.

 

What needs to happen

Recently, Hivos – as part of the Voices for Just Climate Action alliance – studied a handful of promising alternative finance delivery mechanisms. While some have performed better than others, they share the potential for downward accountability and effective participation of different voices as an integral part of the funding mechanism. Based on the study, we put forth the following recommendations which governments, international intermediaries, and global banks and funds should give serious consideration to at the upcoming COP27.

Firstly, create mechanisms for participatory funding and oversight structures to ensure that local actors drive decision making. This includes addressing structural inequalities faced by women, youth, children, Indigenous people, and other marginalized groups, and fully integrating these groups in the design and implementation of adaptation and mitigation actions.

Secondly, routinely set concrete targets for funds that need to reach climate solutions driven by local actors. Provide grants instead of loans, and use long-term, patient and flexible programmatic funding instead of short-term, ad hoc project funding. At COP27 the rich countries must deliver robust action to scale up grant-based climate finance to the developing world.

Thirdly, ensure easy access for local actors by simplifying fund application processes.

Lastly, decisive steps must be taken to use national, not international financing mechanisms and structures for channeling finance. The International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED) designed a climate finance delivery mechanism that bypasses international intermediaries. Here, money flows directly to local civil society, national and local governments, and/or the private sector.

Hivos joins hands with its partners and climate movements in demanding that concrete, gender-responsive targets are set to get climate funding into the hands of local actors, and new funding mechanisms are developed by and with climate-affected communities to make climate finance work for them.

 

To conclude…commitments are vital, but focus must shift

The COP Presidency, this year in the hands of Egypt, has called for significant progress on commitments and pledges, especially on the delivery of the annual USD 100 billion from developed countries to developing countries. Failure to keep to this commitment has often been a breaking point in climate negotiations and has damaged trust between countries.

Equally important, however, is shifting our focus from the volume of climate finance to its effectiveness. Only then will a world governed by climate justice be within reach.

This opinion piece was originally published by Hivos

Excerpt:

Anne Jellema is CEO of Hivos