European Union

We’ve all been there, looking forward to the ‘perfect’ Christmas with faultless food (and too much of it), flowing conversation, and gifts that are going to be spot on. Just imagine: the fire crackles in the fireplace and you peacefully...

The European Commission is considering reviewing its state aid rules to support cutting-edge projects financed by several member states, as requested by national capitals in order to strengthen Europe’s industrial might.

MPs in London on Friday were poised to approve the new Conservative government's Brexit withdrawal bill, following the party's 80-majority victory in the general election last week. Despite earlier promises, prime minister Boris Johnson had removed from the bill a guarantee of matching EU's workers' rights, leading the opposition Labour party to oppose the bill. The bill means the UK will formally leave the EU on 31 January 2020.

The parliament's legal services are analysing whether three Catalan leaders elected in the European elections in May - former president Carles Puigdemont, former vice-president Oriol Junqueras and former minister Toni Comín - can now be accredited as MEPs.

The Greek government plans to take advantage of Poland staying away from the new Green Deal to push forward its own priorities since the very start of the talks about the Just Transition Fund, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has said.

Written by Marcin Grajewski,

© Artur Szczybylo / Shutterstock.com

The European Parliament elections and formation of a new European Commission with new priorities, together with a general economic slowdown against the backdrop of the US-China trade conflict, to say nothing of Brexit, defined 2019 as a year of tough choices in the context of old and new challenges. Those include efforts to fight climate change, the defence of the rules-based international order, the advance of the digital revolution, the emerging debate over the EU’s strategic sovereignty, and the need to re-define relations with the United Kingdom post-Brexit.

This note offers links to recent selected commentaries, studies and reports from major international think tanks on the state of the EU in 2019 and its outlook in several important areas.

Commission, elections, dilemmas

The future of the European Union: Scenarios for the start of the new legislature
Istituto Affari Internazionali, November 2019

The new EU leadership: The von der Leyen Commission focuses on Europe’s geoeconomic power
Finnish Institute for International Affairs, November 2019

Can Europe learn to play power politics?
Centre for European Reform, November 2019

Moving beyond the ‘crisis’: Recommendations for the European Commission’s communication on migration
European Policy Centre, September 2019

Spitzenkandidaten poker
European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2019

Comparative trends in EU governance
Clingendael, July 2019

How to govern a fragmented EU: What Europeans said at the ballot box
European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2019

The changing global order and its implications for the EU
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, March 2019

No end in sight for the EU’s democracy and rule of law crisis
German Marshall Fund, March 2019

Joining forces: The way towards the European Defence Union
European Political Strategy Centre, February 2019

Climate

Four pillars to make or break the European Green Deal
Bruegel, November 2019

4 priorities for the COP25 climate conference in Madrid
World Resources Institute, November 2019

Financing climate change and sustainable growth
LSE, Grantham Institute on Climate Change, November 2019

Coming soon: A massive laboratory for ‘Green New Deals’
Bruegel, October 2019

Cities, climate change and chronic heat exposure
LSE, Grantham Institute on Climate Change, September 2019

The ambition call: European Union
New Climate Institute, August 2019

Planning for 2050: Shifting the focus towards long-term climate objectives
Ecologic Institute, August 2019

Europe’s clean energy transition: An economic opportunity, an environmental imperative
Friends of Europe, July 2019

A 100 percent renewable energy system in Europe is technically possible and economically rational
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, May 2019

What is climate resilience and why does it matter?
Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, April 2019

Defence and foreign policy

Towards a European Security Council?
Centre for European Reform, November 2019

The militarization of US foreign policy: Engagement with Europe increasingly about defense
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, November 2019

The changing global order: Which role for the European Union?
Stiftung Genshagen, October 2019

Sub-surface competition in the EuroAtlantic area: The challenge to Western dominance
Institut français des relations internationales, October 2019

Mission possible? The geopolitical Commission and the partnership with Africa
European Centre for Development Policy Management, October 2019

Defend, engage, maximise: A progressive agenda for EU-China relations
Foundation for European Progressive Studies, October 2019

Democratization first: The community method in CFSP as a precondition for a European defence policy
Institut français des relations internationales, September 2019

The multilateral system under stress: Charting Europe’s path forward
Clingendael, July 2019

From plaything to player: How Europe can stand up for itself in the next five years
European Council on Foreign Relations, July 2019

Strategic autonomy for European choices: The key to Europe’s shaping power
European Policy Centre, July 2019

Trade

A trade war ceasefire is just what America’s economy needs
Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 2019

EU trade policy: Global enforcer for the European Green Deal
European Policy Centre, December 2019

The rise of economic nationalism threatens global cooperation
Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 2019

La politique de sanctions de l’Union européenne: Ambition multilatérale contre ambition de puissance
Institut français des relations internationales, October 2019

Shaping a new international trade order: Competition and co-operation among the European Union, the United States, and China
Dahrendorf Institute, October 2019

The real cost of Trump’s trade wars
Centre for European Policy Studies, August 2019

The unravelling of the Shanghai ‘Deal’: US-China trade-cum-currency conflict comes to Europe
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, August 2019

Transatlantic trade: The emergence of an EU geo-economic strategy?
German Marshall Fund, July 2019

A reflection on the Mercosur agreement
Bruegel, July 2019

US-China trade war: Why the EU should take sides and favour the rules-based order
Istituto Affari Internazionali, July 2019

Economy and euro

Manufacturing employment, international trade, and China
Bruegel, November 2019

The single market remains the decisive power of the EU
Centre for European Policy Studies, October 2019

Beyond industrial policy: Why Europe needs a new growth strategy
Jacques Delors Institute, October 2019

The single market remains the decisive power of the EU
Centre for European Policy Studies, October 2019

Changing guard of the ECB
Institute of International and European Affairs, September 2019

New beginnings: A new approach to euro zone reform
Notre Europe, September 2019

The role of the European Central Bank
Council on Foreign Relations, August 2019

ECB monetary policy in the post-Draghi era
Peterson Institute for International Economy, June 2019

The Economic and Monetary Union: Past, present and future
Centre for Social and Economic Research, March 2019

Mapping the conflict between EU member states over reform of the euro zone
LSE Ideas, January 2019

Digital revolution

An industry action plan for a more competitive, sustainable and strategic European Union
Vrije Universiteit Brussel, November 2019

The case for platform governance
Centre for International governance innovation, November 2019

Beyond industrial policy: Why Europe needs a new growth strategy
Jacques Delors Institute, October 2019

5G: What we talk about when we talk about trust, the EU risk assessment process
European Centre for International Political Economy, October 2019

Analytical report: Preparing the armed forces for disruptive technological changes
European Policy Centre, September 2019

The end of techno-utopianism
German Marshall Fund, September 2019

Artificial Intelligence prediction and counterterrorism
Chatham House, August 2019

How to strengthen Europe’s agenda on digital connectivity
Clingendael, July 2019

Digitalisation and European welfare states
Bruegel, July 2019

Harnessing artificial intelligence
European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2019

Brexit

Path to a softer Brexit? UK PM’s win gives him leeway
Centre for European Reform, December 2019

Getting the UK ready for the next phase of Brexit negotiations
Institute for Government, December 2019

The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios
European Policy Centre, December 2019

Brexit, transition and Northern Ireland
The UK in a Changing Europe, December 2019

Brexit, the democratic question in Europe, and the future of the EU
German Marshall Fund, December 2019

What does the Conservative election victory mean for Brexit?
Open Europe, December 2019

The first hundred days
Policy Exchange, December 2019

Boris Johnson’s next act: Saving the UK
Atlantic Council, December 2019

Brexit endgame: British voters back Boris and Brexit
Brookings Institution, December 2019

How economically damaging will Brexit be?
Centre for European Reform, November 2019

Just a little Brexit?
Centre for European Policy Studies, September 2019

Read this briefing on ‘2019: A year of challenges and choices‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

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A lone Polish NGO has objected to Denmark's permit for Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but neither that nor US mini-sanctions are likely to stop the juggernaut.

The Free Courts initiative is the last barricade that keeps the ruling PiS party from acquiring the absolute power in Poland, activists Sylwia Gregorczyk-Abram and Michał Wawrykiewicz said in an interview with EURACTIV Poland’s editor-in-chief Karolina Zbytniewska.

The European Court of Justice has ruled that since his election as an MEP last June the Catalan independence activist Oriol Junqueras enjoys immunity, and that therefore Spanish authorities should not have prevented him from taking office. Spain's Supreme Court sentenced the former vice president of Catalonia to 13 years in prison in October for sedition. Journalists discuss the potential consequences of the ruling.

During his annual televised news conference, Vladimir Putin spoke out in favour of an amendment to the Russian constitution: the last three words in the passage specifying that the Russian president can serve a "maximum of two terms in a row" could be deleted, he said. This would mean that Putin could not stand for election again. Commentators are unsure whether the statement portends real change.

The trial of those suspected of involvement in the murders of journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnirová begins before a special court in the Slovakian town of Pezinok on Friday. In a move which surprised many observers, the court accepted the indictment on Thursday and set January 13 as the date on which the main trial will begin. Commentators' expectations are high.