Agrégateur de flux

Le dossier de ce tout dernier numéro de l’année 2016 vous emmène à la rencontre de l’escadron d’entraînement 3/8 « Côte-d’Or », unité dédiée à l’entraînement des forces.

« Nous en avons besoin dans ce monde de brutes », a déclaré le président de l’Assemblée nationale sur France Inter.

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The situation in Syria would have gone from bad to worse if Nato had intervened, according to the alliance’s head, Jens Stoltenberg. He warned of the dangers of military escalation in warzones such as Syria.

One the same day the UN Security Council planned to meet to discuss the worsening crisis in the city of Aleppo, Stoltenberg told the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that a military mission in the country, which has been embroiled in an increasingly brutal civil war for more than six years, could have made an already bad situation worse.

“Sometimes it’s right to use military means – such as in Afghanistan. But sometimes the costs of military missions are greater than their benefits,” he said. “If every problem, every humanitarian catastrophe were answered with military force, we would end up in a world with even more war and suffering,” he said.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Welle (DW), Germany’s international broadcaster, quoted German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen has saying: “Neither the Syrian people nor the international community will forget the merciliness of [their actions in] Aleppo, which is unjustifiable. Whoever is responsible for the deployment of poison gas and bombs on hospitals and children can’t simply go back to normal.”

According to the Reuters news agency, the UN Security Council agreed on a French draft resolution aimed at ensuring that UN officials can monitor evacuations from the Syrian city of Aleppo. They were slated to vote on the text on December 18.

But DW noted that Russia’s UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said he would examine the draft. It was unclear whether the council would pass it.

According to the UN, some 40,000 civilians and rebels remain trapped in opposition-held parts of Aleppo, which recently has seen some of the worst violence of the entire war.

In a separate report, Turkey’s Anadolu news agency noted Syria has been locked in a vicious civil war since early 2011, when the Bashar al-Assad regime cracked down on pro-democracy protests – which erupted as part of the “Arab Spring” uprisings.

More than a quarter of a million people have been killed and more than 10m displaced across the war-battered country, according to the UN.

The post Nato chief defends decision not to intervene in Syria appeared first on New Europe.

Dans la continuité de l’année qui s’écoule et qui a vu le Royaume-Uni choisir de quitter l’Union européenne et les États-Unis se choisir un Donald Trump pour président, le Premier ministre hongrois entrevoit de grands bouleversements politiques pour l’année à venir. Pour Viktor Orbán, le temps de la contre-révolution conservatrice et de la revanche du peuple contre les élites est arrivé.

Année 2017, année de la rébellion. Cela ne rime pas, mais qu’importe, c’est le vœu qu’a formulé le Premier ministre hongrois dans une interview au journal inféodé au pouvoir, 888.hu. Le vœu, ou plutôt la prédiction. M. Orbán se dit convaincu que 2017 sera « une année de rébellion intellectuelle des classes moyennes et des nations » contre « le politiquement correct, l’isolement forcé et la stigmatisation ».

Une année de rébellion des « Européens chrétiens et nationaux de notre espèce », contre les « forces libérales et globalistes qui entretiennent le statu quo et veulent créer des États-Unis d’Europe sous leur contrôle ». Dans cette interview, le Premier ministre a une fois de plus utilisé la figure du milliardaire-philanthrope George Soros pour personnifier l’ennemi et égratigner au passage le travail des ONG que celui-ci finance.

C’est cette rébellion des classes moyennes qui, argumente M. Orbán, a défait le « clan Clinton » lors de l’élection américaine en novembre et permis le Brexit quelques mois plus tôt. En Autriche, cette rébellion a seulement été remise à plus tard, estime le dirigeant hongrois qui regrette ainsi à demi-mots la défaite du Parti de la Liberté d’Autriche (FPÖ). Mais, ajoute-t-il, les rébellions en Italie et aux États-Unis n’ont pas pu être écrasées et l’année électorale à venir en Allemagne, aux Pays-Bas et en France est, de son point de vue, prometteuse.

« Make Hungary great again! »

En raison de l’appartenance du Fidesz au Parti Populaire Européen (PPE) aux côtés des Français « Les Républicains », Viktor Orbán prend soin de ne pas préciser qui de François Fillon ou de Marine Le Pen a sa préférence, mais il estime toutefois que les sondages indiquent que « quelque chose de similaire est également en cours en France où ceux qui sont vulnérables et qui ont été laissés pour compte cherchent une issue ».

Galvanisé par la présidence à venir de M. Trump, le Premier ministre hongrois s’exclame à son tour, en anglais « Make Hungary great again! »

L’élection de Trump, a fucking good news pour Viktor Orbán !

L’image d’illustration est issue du magazine «The Economist».

Fünf Armee-Kader müssen sich ab Montag vor dem Militärgericht in Yverdon-les-Bains verantworten. Sie sollen über Jahre Munition und Infrastruktur für nichtdienstliche Zwecke verwendet und sich damit bereichert haben.

C'est ce lundi, à minuit, que le mandat du président Kabila aurait dû prendre fin. Ces derniers jours, les évêques de l'Eglise catholique ont essayé de trouver un accord plus inclusif avec le Rassemblement de l'opposition, le Front pour le respect de la Constitution et les organisations de la société civile qui avaient signé un précédent accord à l'automne dernier. Mais finalement, pas d’entente, les négociations devraient reprendre ce mercredi. Officiellement, aucun parti n'a appelé à manifester ce lundi, mais les forces de sécurité se sont déployées dans toutes les villes du pays.

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The United Nations atomic energy watchdog chief, Yukiya Amano, told reporters in Tehran on December 18 that Iran has shown full commitment to an internationally-backed deal on its nuclear programme. His statement follows Iran’s decision to start working on nuclear-powered vessels and complaints over the US disrespect for the deal.

“We are satisfied with the implementation of the [agreement] and hope that this process will continue,” he said, Iran’s IRNA news agency.

“Iran has been committed to its engagement so far and this is important,” Amano was quoted as saying after a meeting with Iran’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi.

As reported by Tehran Times, Amano arrived at Tehran on December 18 for “high-level consultation with between Iran and the [International Atomic Energy Agency] IAEA”.

Tehran has complained that the recent US Congress vote to a bill which extends sanctions against Iran for another ten years infringes on the terms of the nuclear deal.

“We are satisfied with the implementation of the [agreement] and hope that this process will continue,” Yukiya Amano says.

But Washington says the Iran Sanctions Act would not affect the overall implementation of the nuclear agreement.

Under the deal reached in 2015, Iran rolled back its nuclear programme in exchange for relief from economic sanctions, mainly imposed by the US and European countries.

In a separate report, The Associated Press (AP) noted that the IAEA in November said Iran exceeded its heavy water limit by 100kg over the 130 metric tonnes allowed under the agreement. Heavy water is used to cool reactors that produce plutonium, which can be used in atomic bombs.

Iran later said it transferred 11 tonnes of heavy water to Oman.

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EU Ministers for Environment meet in Brussels on 19 December 2016 to discuss the review of the emissions trading system (ETS) and adopt conclusions on the sound management of chemicals.

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On 19 December 2016 the Council adopted its position at first reading on revised rules to perform official controls along the agri-food chain. The Council's position is based on the compromise agreed with the European Parliament (EP) in June 2016, and paves the way for the final adoption of the regulation by the EP at a next plenary session. 

The new rules aim to improve the controlscarried out by member states to ensure the application of the Union legislation on food and feed safety, animal health and welfare, plant health, and plant protection products. It will also apply to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) for feed and food production, organic farming, protected designations of origin, protected geographical indications and traditional specialities guaranteed. Additionally, marketing standards for agricultural products will be covered with respect to possible fraudulent practices. 

"The new rules will help combat food fraud and scandals, thus enhancing consumer confidence. They have strong requirements on transparency and stringency of controls that will bite effectively.  We want our citizens to trust our control regimes and to be reassured by the quality of what they eat", said Gabriela Matečná, minister for agriculture and rural development of Slovakia and president of the Council.

An improved and more comprehensive single system of controls

The new system of official controls simplifies and streamlines the existing legal framework. It establishes a unique set of control rules applicable to most sectors of the agri-food chain, including for the first time plant health. The extended scope guarantees uniform enforcement across sectors, but still allows for adjustments taking into account the specific needs of individual sectors (e.g. meat inspections, animal welfare controls), or newly identified risks.

Less fraud and scandals 

The member states' authorities in charge of checking compliance with EU legislation through official controls, will have strengthened instruments at their disposal to prevent food fraud and scandals. For instance they will be able to perform regular unannounced official controls and impose deterrent financial penalties on operators committing intentional violations. To ensure consistency and resource-efficiency, the work of national competent authorities will be carried out on the basis of multi-annual national control plans and be risk-based. This means that a higher level of control will be applied to businesses and products in line with the level of risk, thereby avoiding unnecessary controls and administrative burdens.

Protection of whistle blowers 

For the first time the revised rules require member states to ensure that effective mechanisms are in place to allow for reporting of potential or actual breaches of the regulation, including in particular, appropriate protection for people who report such breaches against retaliation, discrimination or other types of unfair treatment. 

Increased transparency 

The agreed text require competent authorities to ensure a high level of transparency on the controls they carry out (type, number and outcome), and on the fees they collect to finance them.

Competent authorities will also have the possibility to publish the rating of individual operators based on the outcome of the controls they have carried out. 

Next steps 

The European Parliament is expected to vote in second reading at a next plenary session, thus approving the Council's position at first reading without amendments and completing the legislative process. 

Afterwards, the legal texts will be published in the Official Journal of the EU.

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To avoid a state bailout, Italy’s troubled bank Monte deiPaschi di Siena is trying to raise €5bn by the end of the year. The troubled bank will offer new shares for sales between December 19 and 22.

As reported by the Reuters news agency, the European Central Bank told Italy’s third-largest bank to raise capital this year and offload €28bn in bad loans. Finding investors, however, has proved difficult amid political turmoil and this month’s change of government.

Monte deiPaschi said on December 18 its share offer for institutional investors, which accounts for 65% of the total, would run until 1300 GMT on December 22.

The offer aimed at current shareholders and retail investors will end at 1300 GMT on December 21.

Monte deiPaschi said in a document on its website that, if successful, the share issue could raise up to €3.2bn.

The rest of the capital needed would come from a voluntary debt-to-equity conversion offer on the bank’s junior debt which has already raised around €1bn.

In a separate report, The Wall Street Journal noted that the Italian government has been readying a rescue plan, should the bank fail to raise the funds it needs from private investors.

According to people familiar with the matter, it could step in and, among other things, inject capital into Monte deiPaschi, if it became evident that private investors are unwilling to shore up the bank.

According to European rules, losses to shareholders and bondholders will likely be imposed if the Italian government rescues the lender.

The post Italy’s Monte deiPaschi sells shares to raise 5bn appeared first on New Europe.

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EU and Russia co-operate on dealing with a number of global and bilateral challenges. In 1994, the Parties concluded a Partnership and Co-operation Agreement.

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December 18, 2016 (KHARTOUM) - South Sudanese Petroleum Minister Ezekiel Lol Gatkouth Sunday arrived in Khartoum for talks with his Sudanese counterpart on the oil transit fees, as result of the collapse of oil prices.

In August 2013, South Sudan agreed to pay to Khartoum $9.10 for the oil produced in Upper Nile state and $11 for that of Unity region. Also Juba agreed to pay the Transitional Financial Assistance (TFA) to the average of the agreed oil transportation fees.

Despite the rise in oil prices recently to over $54 for the barrel, they remain far from the over 100 dollar per barrel when the two countries signed the oil deal in 2013.

Leading a delegation including officials from South Sudan central bank, finance and oil ministry, and the Nilepet, Gatkouth is expected to sign an new agreement Monday.

The official news agency SUNA reported that oil Minister Mohamed Zayed Awad held a meeting with the visiting minster to discuss the renewal of the oil agreement which will expire by the end of the year.

The visit comes after a meeting of joint technical committees chaired by the undersecretaries of oil ministries in the two countries on the review of oil fees to cope with the falling oil prices.

Minister Awad said his ministry is willing to provide Juba with all the data related to oil blocks in South Sudan. Also, he reiterated readiness to train South Sudanese oil workers.

According to SUNA, Gatkouth called to strengthen joint cooperation as they plan to resume oil production in the Unity region outside Bentinu. He added that such cooperation will benefit to the two countries.

(ST)

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MOSCOW – US President-elect Donald Trump seems determined to revive a forgotten Hollywood genre: the paranoid melodrama. Perhaps the greatest film in this genre, The Manchurian Candidate, concerns a communist plot to use the brainwashed son of a leading right-wing family to upend the American political system. Given the fondness that Trump and so many of his appointees seem to have for Russian President Vladimir Putin, life may be about to imitate – if not exceed – art.

To be sure, the attraction for Putin that Trump, Secretary of State-designate Rex Tillerson, and National Security Adviser General Michael Flynn share is not the result of brainwashing, unless you consider the love of money (and of the people who can funnel it to you) a form of brainwashing. Nonetheless, such Kremlinophilia is – to resurrect a word redolent of Cold War paranoia – decidedly un-American.

Consider the derision shown by Trump and his posse for CIA reports that Kremlin-directed hackers intervened in last month’s election to benefit Trump. In typical fashion, Trump let loose a barrage of tweets blasting the CIA as somehow under the thumb of his defeated opponent, Hillary Clinton. His nominee for Deputy Secretary of State, John Bolton, went even further, suggesting that the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, was a “false flag” operation designed to smear an innocent Kremlin.

The idea that a US president-elect would take the word of the Kremlin over that of CIA officials and even the most senior members of his own party is already bizarre and dangerous. But the simultaneous nomination of Tillerson – the long-time CEO of ExxonMobil, America’s most powerful energy company, which has tens of billions of dollars invested in Russia – to be America’s top diplomat takes this love affair with a major adversary to a level unprecedented in US history.

For Tillerson, taking Russia’s side against the US is nothing new. Consider the sanctions that the US and Europe imposed on Russia in response to the country’s annexation of Crimea – a blatantly illegal act – in 2014. Instead of supporting US policy, Tillerson belittled it. Instead of fully honoring President Barack Obama’s call for ExxonMobil not to send a representative to the annual Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum after the annexation, Tillerson cynically sent the head of one of ExxonMobil’s international operations. And instead of returning the Order of Friendship that he received from Putin months before the invasion of Crimea, Tillerson continues to celebrate his status as a “friend of Vladimir.”

Flynn, like Tillerson, has also been feasting at the Kremlin trough. After being fired by Obama for his incompetent management of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Flynn immediately began to cultivate Russian business contacts. And Putin seems to have been more than happy to see that commercial doors were opened to Flynn. There is a now-infamous photograph of Flynn seated next to Putin at a banquet for RT (Russia Today), the Kremlin-backed cable news network that was a prime source of the slanted, and even fake, news that inundated the US during the recent election campaign.

As for Trump, statements made by his sons suggest that, if the American public ever got a look at his tax returns and business loans, they would find that he has also been feathering his nest with Kremlin gold for some time. He has undoubtedly taken money from countless Russian oligarchs. In 2008, he unloaded one of his Palm Beach mansions on Dmitry Rybolovlev, a fertilizer oligarch, for $95 million. Sergei Millian, who heads the Russian-American Chamber of Commerce, is said to have facilitated countless investments from Russians into Trump projects. For Trump, no money is too tainted to pocket.

Trump’s adoration of Russia – or, more accurately, Russian riches – was apparent well before Americans went to the polls, as was his habit of surrounding himself with likeminded advisers. For months, Trump’s presidential campaign was run by Paul Manafort, a political operative who had worked to secure the disgraced President Viktor Yanukovych’s victory in Ukraine’s 2010 presidential election. Trump severed public ties with Manafort only after Ukraine’s current democratic government revealed documents that hinted at the millions of dollars that Yanukovych had paid Manafort, in cash. As Trump’s inauguration draws near, Americans must confront three big questions. One, in a sense, is a take on a question that Trump raised about Clinton during the campaign: what happens if the FBI finds evidence of criminal conduct by the president? Or, perhaps more likely in Trump’s case, what happens if the president tries to shut down FBI investigations into his commercial activities involving Russia, or into the actions of cronies like Manafort?

The second question, which the US Senate should ask before confirming Tillerson as Secretary of State, concerns the extent of his and ExxonMobil’s financial interests in Russia. The Senate should also probe how closely Tillerson has cooperated with Igor Sechin, the chairman of Rosneft and a notorious ex-KGB operative, particularly in renationalizing much of the Russian oil industry and placing it under Sechin’s personal control. (Similar questions should be asked about Flynn, though, because the National Security Adviser doesn’t need to be confirmed by the Senate, little can be done about his appointment.)

The biggest question of all concerns the American people. Are they really willing to accept a president who denounces men and women who risk their lives to defend the US, and equally quick to praise and defend Putin and his cronies when their reckless, even criminal, conduct is exposed?

At the end of The Manchurian Candidate, another brainwashed character – Frank Sinatra’s Marco – escapes his programming to foil the communist plot. But that was Cold War Hollywood: of course the good guys won. Trump the Movie is unlikely to end so well.

© Project Syndicate 1995–2016

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TOKYO – December will be a month of reconciliation for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as he meets with leaders from two countries that fought Japan in World War II: the United States and Russia.

It might seem promising that Abe is hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin and then being hosted by US President Barack Obama in such short order. But these events actually presage an uncomfortable, potentially destabilizing time for Japan – and all of East Asia.

On December 26, Abe will shake hands with Obama at Pearl Harbor – weeks after the US marked the 75th anniversary of the Japanese attack there – to reciprocate Obama’s visit to Hiroshima’s atomic bomb sites last May. The mutual demonstration of forgiveness is meant to emphasize the values that Japan and the US now share.

But this gesture will come just ten days after Abe hosts Putin in his Yamaguchi prefecture hometown; and theirs will be a rather different sort of reconciliation. Russia is one of the few countries with which Japan never signed a peace treaty after 1945, because in the war’s final days, the Soviet Union occupied four then-Japanese islands just north of Hokkaido, the country’s northernmost main island.

The four islands sit at the southern tip of the Kuril Islands chain that separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Pacific Ocean. While they are not of any particular economic value beyond providing some fishing grounds, they do have sentimental significance for Japan – as is often the case with lost territories. And for Russia, which is never keen to cede territory anyway, the islands are strategically valuable; the Kremlin recently decided to install missile-defense systems on two of them.  While the dispute over the islands has prevented Japan and Russia from ever formalizing a peace agreement, both countries now seem to want to cuddle somewhat closer. Putin’s trip will be his first official visit to Japan in a decade; and Abe plans to honor him with personalized treatment; their discussions will take place in the manly environment of an onsen (hot spring), rather than in dull offices.

These overtures reflect Russia and Japan’s respective concerns about China. While Russia has warmed to China in recent years, not least by entering into a big natural gas deal and engaging in joint military exercises, it has largely done so as a gesture of defiance against the US and the European Union. In the long term, Russia does not want to look as though it is dependent on its increasingly powerful southern neighbor. Japan, for its part, fears Chinese domination of East Asia, and is more than happy to be Russia’s new Asian friend.

Previously, it would have been difficult, if not impossible, for Japan to invest in Russia’s Far East, owing to its participation in Western sanctions against Russia, imposed in response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. But now that Donald Trump has been elected to the US presidency, those sanctions might be eased or eliminated. Indeed, this could explain why Abe broke protocol to become the first foreign leader to meet President-elect Trump in New York, on November 17.

Had Hillary Clinton won the election, Abe would have been forced to downplay expectations for his summit with Putin. Now, Putin and Abe will have more room to negotiate the contested islands’ status, and to develop a future framework for economic cooperation, which will likely include regular bilateral summits.

But this will only be a consolation prize for Abe. Trump’s victory has sounded a death knell for the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Obama had made the centerpiece of his Asia strategy. Abe supported the TPP, and saw it as a means to prevent China from becoming the rule-setter in Asian trade. Without the TPP, it is now increasingly likely that China will step into that role.

That will be a big loss for Japan, and the country will lose out even more if Trump follows through on his campaign promise to make allies such as Japan and South Korea pay more for their own defense. And if Trump continues to provoke China by communicating with Taiwan and questioning America’s “One China” policy, regional tensions will escalate. This, in turn, will only increase Japan’s defense needs, especially with respect to the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which China claims as its own.

So, Abe faces political danger, but he also has an opportunity. Trump’s election and escalating regional tensions have created the perfect pretext for Abe to push for his ultimate political goal: to abolish Article 9 – the pacifist clause in Japan’s post-war, US-imposed constitution, which limits the Japanese military to a “self-defense force,” and has generally kept Japanese defense spending at 1% of GDP.

Abe already has enough parliamentary backing to achieve this, and he could garner more with a snap election for the lower house in early 2017. But, beyond a two-thirds majority in both parliamentary bodies, constitutional reforms also require a simple majority in a national referendum. Achieving that could be harder, because pacifism runs deep in the only country to have been attacked with atomic bombs.

By shaking Obama’s hand in Hawaii, Abe will give a nod to the country’s modern pacifist creed, and signal that, despite his reputation as a nationalist, he also harbors deep feelings about the dangers of war. Such peaceful assurances, against the backdrop of growing tensions in East Asia, may or may not be enough to persuade Japanese voters that it is time to expand their country’s armed forces – 75 years after their great but fateful triumph in Pearl Harbor. This will be one of the central questions in Asian politics over the next few turbulent years.

© Project Syndicate 1995–2016

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WASHINGTON, DC – Planning. It is the key to successful military action – and, in many ways, to success in general – and United States Marines like me pride ourselves on it. But if you’ve spent 30 years in the military, as I have, you know that an effective plan cannot be static; operating environments change, often in surprising or unexpected ways. Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month constitutes just such a change.

It may be a long time before we fully understand the new operating environment. But we must begin adjusting – and continue adjusting as new facts come to light. Otherwise, we risk becoming vulnerable to serious strategic threats – the gravest of which is likely to be climate change.

The increase in the Earth’s surface temperature represents a fundamental shift in the global operating environment, both economically and militarily. It is not just that some so-called “elites” think that the weather is going to warm up a bit. Climate change is not trivial; nor are its security implications.

Climate change is what we in the military call a “threat multiplier.” Its connection to conflict is not linear. Rather, it intensifies and complicates existing security risks, increasing the frequency, scale, and complexity of future missions.

The urgency of the climate threat is growing quickly. Climate change is already expanding the scope of military operations, with the US Navy and Coast Guard assessing new missions in the Arctic. More intense hurricanes, typhoons, and droughts are increasing the demand for military-assisted humanitarian responses, most notably in the Pacific.

As increasingly extreme weather reshapes migration patterns, the number of displaced people (already at record highs worldwide) will rise, and competition for essential resources (such as water, food, and energy) will increase. These effects will be particularly destabilizing in already-volatile situations, exacerbating challenges like weak governance, economic inequality, and social tensions – and producing truly toxic conflicts. That is why we call climate change “an accelerant of instability.”

Don’t take my word for it. America’s entire national security establishment is clear on this. In fact, the US military has recognized climate change as a major security risk for more than a decade, making it a world leader on this front. Last year’s National Security Strategy reiterated this view, identifying climate change as a top-level strategic risk to US interests, alongside factors like terrorism, economic crisis, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

These are not empty words. The US military has long been integrating climate change into our planning. After all, the worst security failures – for example, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, which dragged the US into World War II, and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks – tend to arise from inadequate preparation.

Reflecting this lesson, during President George W. Bush’s administration, legislation was enacted to require all US defense agencies to consider the effects of climate change in future strategic policy development. In the last four years, the Department of Defense has released a series of directives that put climate-change preparedness at the center of how we do business.

It is too early to say what the Trump administration will do when it comes to climate change. On the campaign trail, he promised to undo some key climate policies, even threatening to back out of the Paris climate agreement. It is critically important that he and his cabinet recognize that to follow through on his promise would be extremely shortsighted.

The truth is that it is in America’s best interest, in terms of both security and the economy, to remain on the path toward a cleaner future. Already, the clean-energy revolution has brought jobs, money, and industry to rural America. It is a source of untold opportunities. And isn’t identifying opportunity one of America’s great strengths?

The shifting economic operating environment bolsters these opportunities. China, India, and other emerging economies are racing to be the global clean-energy superpower; it would not be in America’s interest to be left behind. If America is to be great, as Trump has promised, it needs to build more future-oriented industries that can compete globally – and that can provide jobs to American workers.

Moreover, Trump’s administration will need to continue the US military’s work and create a more resilient national security strategy. The American Security Project, of which I am CEO, looks forward to providing the Trump administration with relevant advice and solutions. We will also call the administration to account if it fails to protect US interests adequately.

Ignoring  threats might work in politics, but it does not work in security. Denying the reality of climate change will not make it go away; rather, it will erode the economy and expose the US to serious risks. That would amount to a failure by Trump to fulfill one of his most important responsibilities as president: ensuring the security of the American people.

Serious strategic risks cannot be a political plaything. The threat of climate change does not sit neatly on either side of the left-right divide; it is – and must remain – part of US strategic planning. Anyone who has been involved in such planning knows that we cannot prepare only for the wars we want to fight; we must prepare for the wars that will come, whether we like it or not.

© Project Syndicate 1995–2016

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Cette semaine, (re)lisez un autre texte marquant de la revue Politique étrangère, écrit par Jean-Christophe Rufin : « Minorités, nationalités, États », publié dans le numéro d’automne 1991  (n°3/1991).

Jean-Christophe Rufin a été administrateur de Médecins sans frontières (1991-1993), puis de la Croix-Rouge française (1994-1996) et président d’Action contre la faim (2002-2006). Il a été ambassadeur de France au Sénégal et en Gambie de 2007 à 2010. En parallèle à ses activités humanitaires et diplomatiques, il a mené une carrière littéraire. Il a obtenu le prix Goncourt en 2001 et a été élu à l’Académie française en 2008.

La civilisation, écrivait l’historien Mommsen, est « la transition nécessaire du particularisme cantonal par où commence l’histoire de tous les peuples à l’unité nationale, par où ils achèvent, ou doivent achever la révolution de leur progrès ».

Dans cette perspective classique, les minorités sont synonymes d’archaïsme ; l’évolution des sociétés va dans le sens de leur fusion en ensembles de degré supérieur. Les sociologues sont venus renforcer les historiens dans cette interprétation. Dans la conception de Max Weber, la société se constitue par l’intégration progressive d’unités restreintes et la mise en circulation de leurs traits culturels.

Ceci explique probablement pourquoi, jusqu’à une date récente, la question des conflits entre minorités et État est restée peu étudiée dans les relations internationales depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. La seule circonstance où les conflits locaux, en particulier dans le Tiers-Monde, ont repris quelque intérêt, c’est dans les cas où l’une des parties en présence était soutenue par une grande puissance : Miskitos contre sandinistes, Érythréens contre Éthiopiens prosoviétiques, Khmers contre Vietnamiens. Mais ces conflits étaient moins étudiés pour leur signification locale que du fait de leur situation au sein de l’affrontement planétaire Est-Ouest, constituant ce que Gérard Chaliand appelle « les faubourgs de l’histoire ».

Dans la nouvelle configuration des rapports internationaux, les conflits liés aux minorités sont en train de quitter cette position marginale pour devenir des questions centrales et décisives.

Inversant la perspective classique, nous devons accepter l’idée que les minorités, loin d’être les vestiges du passé, des entités naturelles que le mouvement culturel dépasserait, sont au contraire renforcées et durcies par le processus d’unification, notamment par l’émergence universelle de l’État-nation.

La période de recomposition internationale ouverte par l’effondrement des systèmes communistes s’accompagne d’une forte poussée des mouvements minoritaires et modifie les conditions de leur expression. Quantitativement on note la prééminence actuelle des conflits internes aux États ou « liés à la constitution d’un État » (en 1988 sur 111 conflits recensés, 99 appartiennent à ces catégories). Ces conflits par division ou éclatement de l’état tendent à se multiplier rapidement (Liberia, Somalie, Rwanda, Inde, etc.).

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Januártól tovább nő a rendőrök és a katonák bére – erről a belügyi és a honvédelmi tárca államtitkárai beszéltek közös sajtótájékoztatójukon. Kontrát Károly, a Belügyminisztérium parlamenti államtitkára hangsúlyozta: minden dolgozó és minden közszolga megérdemli, hogy előre léphessen, különösen igaz ez azokra, akik a magyar emberek biztonságáért szolgálnak és akik az elmúlt másfél évben megvédték az országot az illegális bevándorlóktól.

Az államtitkár arról is beszélt, az illetményemelés mellett a jobb munkakörülményekért is tenni kívánnak annak érdekében, hogy erősebb rendőrség és erősebb honvédség kötelékében szolgálhassanak az érintettek.

A belügyi tárca vonatkozásában ismertette: az illetményemelés érinti a rendőröket, a tűzoltókat, a büntetés-végrehajtási dolgozókat, a Terrorelhárítási Központ, a Nemzeti Védelmi Szolgálat, valamint a különböző titkosszolgálatok hivatásos állományú tagjait. Emlékeztetett: a 2015 júliusától indult rendvédelmi életpályamodellnek köszönhetően először harminc százalékkal nőtt az érintettek bére, amit évente újabb öt-öt százalékkal növelnek, így összességében 2019-ig átlagosan ötven százalékos béremelés valósul meg.

Kontrát elmondta: az intézkedés mintegy hatvanezer hivatásos állományú dolgozót érint, a jövő évi költségvetésben pedig 18 milliárd forint pluszforrást jelent. Megjegyezte, az életpályamodellnek köszönhető béremelés összköltsége 250 milliárd forint.

Példaként említette, hogy egy tiszthelyettesi átlagbér az életpályamodell bevezetése előtt, 2015. január 1-jén 220 591 forint volt, ez 2015. július 1-jétől 285 886 forintra nőtt, majd idén januártól 287 797 forintra, jövőre pedig 308 827 forint lesz. Ugyancsak példaként említette, hogy egy járőr bére 2015 januárjához képest 2019 januárjára 160 242 forintról 313 065 forintra, egy főnyomozó tiszté 301 664 forintról 456 070 forintra nő, és mindkettejük esetében ehhez még 100-300 ezer forintos teljesítményjuttatás adódhat hozzá.

Az államtitkár beszámolt arról is, a kormány korábban meghirdette, hogy háromezerrel növeli a határvadászok számát, erre eddig mintegy 2500-an jelentkeztek. Két turnusban már megkezdődött a képzésük: egy ötszáz fős csoportnak novemberben, egy másik, csaknem ötszáz fősnek pedig december 1-jén. Kontrát úgy vélte, az illetményemeléseknek is köszönhető a határvadászképzés iránti érdeklődés.

Vargha Tamás, a Honvédelmi Minisztérium parlamenti államtitkára arról beszélt: erősödik a honvédelmi költségvetés is, 2016-tól évente a GDP 0,1 százalékával, aminek révén 2026-ra eléri a NATO szövetségi rendszerében elvárt két százalékot. Hozzátette: 2016-ot megelőzően már a szinten tartás sem volt kis teljesítmény, mivel több ország erőteljesen csökkentette a honvédelmi költségvetését.

Felidézte: 2015-től a rendőrök életpályamodelljéhez hasonlóan honvédelmi életpályamodellt alakítottak ki, ennek keretében ugyancsak először harminc, majd évente öt-öt százalékkal nő a katonák illetménye. Ilyenre 2011, az első Orbán-kormány óta nem volt példa – tette hozzá.

Példaként említette, hogy egy altiszt, a hadsereg gerincének számító főtörzsőrmester az illetményemelést megelőzően mintegy 180 ezer forintot keresett, 2017 januárjától ez 114 ezerrel több, 294 ezer forint lesz. A legénységi állományban egy szakaszvezető 2015 elején még 150 ezer forintot keresett, 2017 januárjától 221 ezer forintra számíthat.

Felidézte azt is, hogy idén szeptembertől a legénységi állomány érettségizett és nem érettségizett tagjaira is tekintettel munkaerőpiaci pótlékot vezettek be, amely jövőre beépül az illetménybe. Ez egy érettségizett, legénységi állományú katona esetében azt jelenti, hogy 166 ezer forintos bruttó illetménye 200 ezer forintra nő, egy közkatonáé 180 ezerre, egy őrvezetőé 190 ezerre, egy tizedesé 200 ezerre, egy szakaszvezetőé pedig 220 ezerre – tette hozzá.

Az illetményemelés harmadik pillérének nevezte a béren kívüli juttatások rendszerét, emlékeztetve arra, hogy nemrég írta alá Simicskó István, a tárca vezetője a szakszervezetekkel az erről szóló jövő évi megállapodást. Ennek értelmében 2017-ben a természetbeni ellátásra nem jogosultak részére havi 8 ezer forintot fizetnek ki és 4000 forintot utalnak SZÉP-kártyára. Ez összességében 1000 forinttal jelent többet a múlt évinél.

Beszámolt arról is, hogy januárban lép életbe a honvédelmi egészségkárosodási ellátás rendszere, amelyben azoknak, akik legalább 10 éve szolgálják a hazájukat, de önhibájukon kívül baleset vagy betegség miatt alkalmatlanná válnak a feladatuk ellátására, további foglalkoztatási lehetőséget kínálnak, vagy ha ez az egészségi állapotuk miatt nem lehetséges, akkor károsodási járadékra válnak jogosulttá.

Kontrát Károly ehhez hozzátette: a rendvédelmi területen is bevezetnek ilyen járadékrendszert.

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