Defense Industry Daily

Americas

• The forth and final test aircraft of Boeing’s KC-46A tanker program has made its maiden flight. While not kitted out for aerial refueling, the 767-2C aircraft will be used to conduct environmental control system testing for the program. The arrival of the latest tanker comes as Boeing scrambles to complete a “milestone C” review by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). A favorable review will unleash additional funds needed for the program, including a seven tanker production order, which the manufacturer had already begun producing out of its own pocket.

• Northrop Grumman has been awarded an $83.4 million modification contract by the US Army to provide logistics support for the Hunter Unmanned Aircraft System. Work will continue until October 30, 2016. Based on the Hunter UAV by Israel’s IAI, the RQ-5 Hunter has been used by the US Army as a short wave system, and has been operated extensively on missions in Afghanistan. While retirement of the Hunter was scheduled for 2013, the Army has issued a number of logistic and support contracts to Northrop since then, giving the RQ-5 a license to keep hunting for the time being.

• Efforts to prevent Canada’s $11 billion deal to sell light armored vehicles to Saudi Arabia have gone one step further after the filing of a legal challenge in the Federal Court of Canada by former MP and law professor Daniel Turp. According to Turp, the sale violates Canadian law, which prevents the export of military goods to a nation that abuses human rights or is engaged in an active conflict. However, the case may be over before it begins, as Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion quietly issued export permits for the bulk of the shipments earlier this month, and the deal has received its blessing from Canada’s media darling, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Saudi Arabia, accused of committing war crimes during its ongoing campaign in Yemen with western made weaponry, has purchased 1,400 LAVs from General Dynamics Land Systems with a variety of weapon systems, ranging from 25mm cannons to 90mm guns over the last 20 years.

Middle East North Africa

• Israel’s eagerness to customize its orders of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters has already seen its first app created for the next generation jet. Utilizing the open-architecture software design found in the Lockheed Martin designed fighter, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has developed its own command, control, communications, and computing (C4) system which will be equipped on the aircraft in December. The software is an upgrade of an existing C4 system the Israeli air force flies on its F-15 and F-16 fighters.

Europe

• After some guessing and speculation, the UK’s Protector unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform will be the Certifiable Predator B (CPB) UAV. The MoD had announced its plans to go ahead with its 10-strong MQ-9 Reaper Block 1 fleet replacement back in October 2015, but only now has its successor been revealed. The $606 million purchase from manufacturer General Atomic Aeronautical Systems will be facilitated through the usual government to government Foreign Military Sales with the US. Compared to the MQ-9, the CPB has 40% more endurance and four extra external store stations.

Asia Pacific

• After numerous delays in its maiden flight which occurred last week amid much excitement from manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), the X-2 stealth demonstrator will have a year long test campaign involving around 50 flights. With the maiden flight described as “ordinary” by Hirofumi Doi, manager of Japan’s Future Fighter Program at the defence ministry’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA), future testing will help ATLA gather data on advanced fighter technologies such as stealth, thrust vectoring, data links, and other areas. Depending on this data, flight testing of the X-2 could easily be extended, leading the way for a potentially busy period for the demonstrator.

• Delivery of the S-300 air defense system to Iran is ahead of schedule after deliveries began earlier this month. The $900 million contract was initially signed back in 2007, but suspended when UN Security Council sanctions blocked the deal in 2010. A thawing in relations between the US and Iran over the latter’s dropping of its nuclear program has allowed Tehran to pursue additional military hardware, much to the chagrin of the US’s Gulf allies. Potential future arms contracts between Russia and Iran may involve weaponry that is not on the UN ban list, including air defense systems, small arms, and electronic warfare systems.

• France’s DCNS has been announced as the winner of the $38.7 billion Australian Future Submarine contract. The hotly contested tender for the 12 new subs also saw offers from Germany’s Thyssen-Krupp Marine Systems and the Government of Japan to carry out the build. The new design will be based on DCNS’s Shortfin Barracuda A1 submarine design, a conventionally-powered derivative of the nuclear-powered Suffren-class submarine now under construction for the French Navy. US made combat systems integrator and weapons systems will be installed by either Lockheed Martin or Raytheon in contracts expected to be announced shortly.

Today’s Video

• Live fire testing of a Russian Iskander-M Tactical Missile Launcher Cruise Missile:

Bridge to the future?
(click to view full)

In its 2009 White Paper, Australia’s Department of Defence and Labor Party government looked at the progress being made in ship killing surveillance-strike complexes, and at their need to defend large sea lanes, as key drivers shaping future navies. These premises are well accepted, but the White Paper’s conclusion was a surprise. It recommended a doubling of Australia’s submarine fleet to 12 boats by 2030-2040, all of which would be a new successor design that would replace the RAN’s Collins Class submarines.

The surprise, and controversy, stem from Australia’s recent experiences. The Collins Class was designed with the strong cooperation of ThyssenKrupp’s Swedish Kockums subsidiary, and built in Australia by state-owned ASC. The class has had a checkered career, including significant difficulties with its combat systems, issues with acoustic signature and propulsion, major cost growth to A$ 5+ billion, and schedule slippage. Worse still, reports indicated that the RAN can only staff 2 of its 6 submarines. High-level attention led to a report and recommendations to improve the force, but whether they will work remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the nature of Australia’s SEA 1000 future submarine project – and its eventual cost – remain unclear, with estimated costs in the A$ 36-44 billion range. This FOCUS article covers Australia’s options, decisions, and plans, as their future submarine program slowly gets underway.

Australia’s SEA 1000 Future Submarine Program Structure & Timeline

There is widespread skepticism that the Australian can handle this proposed project, especially after the failure of the Collins Class. Worse, a number of expert reports have pointed out that the next generation of submarines needs to be in the water before the Collins Class wears out. Many believe that the Collins’ original 2024 – 2031 range for safe and effective service is too generous (vid April 21/12 entry, below), which left very little time as of 2009.

Australia’s Labor government didn’t approach the problem with that level of urgency. The breadth and severity of problems with the Collins Class led to a number of reports covering failures in current submarine operations, and lessons learned. The good news is that this has given Australia a better foundation for its decisions, and improved the government’s understanding of its real needs and responsibilities. The bad news is that this approach delayed action on the May 2009 White Paper for almost 3 years. It’s likely to be 2017 before there’s a serious contract to build the new boats, and the schedule announced in May 2012 has already slipped slightly:

CIS re: ‘$40B mistake’

2012: The Government will make a decision on design and test facilities, including the Land Based Test Site, and will receive the Future Submarine Industry Skills Plan. Actual: That skills plan wasn’t publicly unveiled until May 2013.

2013: The Government will receive the results of the design, technical, and capability studies, and will make a decision on the combat systems, torpedoes, sensors and other weapons systems. Actual: The studies were received, and the combat system was decided on in May 2013, but not the other elements.

2013/2014: First Pass approval was scheduled for late 2013/early 2014. This would presumably involve a picked design. That hasn’t happened yet, and the new Liberal Party government is rethinking the entire short list.

2017: Second Pass approval is scheduled for around 2017, with construction expected to begin afterward.

These delays and replacement realities have forced to government to state that the Collins Class can operate safely and effectively to 2031 – 2038. Whether that’s true remains to be seen.

Submarine Choices S-80 cutaway, labeled
(click to view full)

Australia’s Labor government delayed making its decision, as it considered 4 broad options for the future diesel-electric fast attack submarines. By May 2013, however, it had decided to go with the riskiest 2 options for a purchase that’s supposed to be the RAN’s future centerpiece. If they get this wrong to the same degree that they botched the Collins Class, they will have crippled Australia’s future naval posture for a generation.

RAN needs

Off-the-Shelf. An existing design available off-the-shelf, modified only to meet Australia’s regulatory requirements. Australia looked at the AM-2000 Scorpene, U214/U216, S-80, and Soryu Class – see Appendix A for details. This option was eliminated in May 2013.

Picking this option would have ensured rapid delivery for the RAN’s strategic centerpiece. It also would cut the risk of technical failure by deploying proven systems, and offered greater cost certainty and savings. The price of this approach is that the submarine chosen might not fit Australia’s exact vision. Which leads to the question of how much that vision is worth, when the extra cost is judged by what else it could buy Australia. If the answer is “their entire future fleet of 72 F-35A stealth fighters,” decision-makers are going to stop and think carefully.

Modified. One way to get most off-the-shelf benefits is to buy existing design and make minor changes to incorporate Australia’s specific requirements, especially the RAN’s chosen combat systems and weapons. Accepting off-the-shelf choices for a new submarine class would force Australia to stock and maintain new types of torpedoes, anti-ship missiles, electronics, etc. Which could be done, but is expensive. Hence the potential attraction of a modified buy. This option was eliminated in May 2013, but it’s resurfacing under the new Liberal government.

Either Japan’s Soryu Class or TKMS’ U218SG would require some modifications along these lines. The Soryus would need to modify their combat system to be compatible with Australia’s chosen AN/BY-1G combat system and with its Mk-48 heavy torpedoes. The U218SG is less defined, but Singapore uses Finmeccanica WASS Black Shark torpedoes in its Archer Class, so unless Singapore plans to switch to torpedoes and use the American AN/BYG-1 combat system, switching the U218SG’s combat system and weapons will take similar design work.

Note that the ultra-cramped nature of a submarine’s internals means that modifying a submarine’s internal electronics is a bit more than a minor design swap-out, and carries expenses and risks of its own. The German/Singaporean U218SG and Sweden’s potential A26 would add the risks inherent to a new design. Hence Australia’s growing focus on Japan’s Soryus. There is talk that the entire set of 10 subs may now be built abroad; a weaker option would use the common approach of having 2-3 boats built in the foreign shipyard with Australian workers on site, and the rest built in Australia following that hands-on skills transfer period.

HMAS Rankin
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Evolved. An evolved design that enhances the capabilities of existing off-the-shelf designs, or of the current Collins Class design. Groups like ASPI suggest that Australia is moving toward an Evolved Collins Class design, but first, they had to remove a key roadblock noted in RAND’s December 2011 report (q.v. Dec 13/11 entry):

“One problem that hindered the Collins program was the lack of the intellectual property (IP) rights to the design of the basic platform and much of the fitted equipment. Not having the rights to Collins IP on future designs may constrain the design effort for the new submarine class that will replace the Collins. Although Kockums and the DoD reached a settlement in 2004 that provided ASC and its subcontractors access to Kockums’ IP, it still protected Kockums’ proprietary information to the point that no intellectual property from the Collins can be used in a new Australian submarine design [implied: absent negotiations & licensing].”

A May 2013 agreement with Sweden’s FMV procurement agency has settled that issue, but an Evolved Design option remains inherently risky, precisely because it’s so easy to pretend that the structural and electronic modifications to an existing class won’t really create much risk. Experiences in a range of Australian and Canadian programs show that this simply isn’t true. Both technical and cost risks can become serious problems, as demonstrated by the fact that the Collins Class was itself begun under those same auspices. Worse, ASC’s performance regarding Collins construction, and metrics far below global norms while building Australia’s new Hobart Class air defense destroyers, may be raising the risk profile so high that it destroys the Evolved option. Nevertheless, an evolved variant of the Collins Class remains on the table as a possibility.

SMX Ocean

One possible way to sidestep the Evolved Option’s issues is to choose DCNS’ SMX Ocean Class, a 4,000t+ design that’s evolved from France’s Barracuda Class nuclear submarines. That takes care of a big chunk of the R&D costs and risk, and offloads most of the rest to the vendor. On the other hand, Australia would still be the initial and only customer for a new design – one that will require replacement of its combat system, its standard weapons, and other key technologies.

New. An entirely new developmental submarine, designed in Australia.

The “New Developmental Submarine” option is, of course, the riskiest option of all. It’s also by far the most expensive, as a large amount of R&D must be financed. Since export sales from Australia are deeply unlikely, any R&D expenses are simply money down the drain.

With that said, the Swedish government may have a very interesting offer to make. They have broken off talks with Germany’s TKMS following accusations of bad faith in TKMS’ management of Kockums, which designed the Collins Class. In response, they’re working to revive a Swedish submarine industry at Saab. One possible solution is to continue taking those steps toward a Swedish submarine industry, but buy Australia’s ASC as well, and design their planned A26 successor submarine as a co-development project with Australia (q.v. April 12/14 entry).

Contracts and Key Events 2015 – 2016

April 28/16: France’s DCNS has been announced as the winner of the $38.7 billion Australian Future Submarine contract. The hotly contested tender for the 12 new subs also saw offers from Germany’s Thyssen-Krupp Marine Systems and the Government of Japan to carry out the build. The new design will be based on DCNS’s Shortfin Barracuda A1 submarine design, a conventionally-powered derivative of the nuclear-powered Suffren-class submarine now under construction for the French Navy. US made combat systems integrator and weapons systems will be installed by either Lockheed Martin or Raytheon in contracts expected to be announced shortly.

January 26/16: Japan and France are the front runners in providing Australia with its next submarine fleet. Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems had also been considered, however recent worries over technical concerns may have them out of the running for the $34.55 billion contract. Japan has offered a variant of its 4,000-ton Soryu boats made by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, where as France’s state-controlled naval contractor DCNS has proposed a diesel-electric version of its 5,000-ton Barracuda nuclear-powered submarine. The final decision will be made within the next six months ahead of Australian elections, with a slowing economy to be the main issue among voters. All competitors have agreed to build the new fleet in South Australian shipyards.

Feb 12/15: Bids to be competitive, just not too competitive. Japan is expected to be disappointed that Australia will have a competitive process for choosing submarine vendors. But it won’t be too competitive. Russia and North Korea have been excluded.

2014

New center-right gov’t and its supporters rethinking the program; Interest in Japan’s Soryu Class accelerates; Swedish sub turmoil could be Australia’s big opportunity; France steps in with SSN derivative; ASC may be losing its grip on sub construction. A26 concept

Dec 02/14: Love Me Tender. Treasurer Joe Hockey brushed aside the idea of running an open tender for new submarines as “a speculation process” that Australia no longer had time for. The opposition in return stuck to its support of local construction. This comes a week after Defense Minister David Johnston said that he wouldn’t trust ASC “to build a canoe”, a statement that he and his boss David Abbott only softly backpedaled later. In other words the government is clearly not softening the substance of its position, which is widely interpreted as favoring Japan as the closest thing to an off-the-shelf option.

Sources: The Australian: Joe Hockey rules out open tender for new submarines | Sydney Morning Herald: Defence Minister David Johnston ‘regrets’ his shipbuilder ‘canoe’ comments.

Nov 19/14: France. The CEO of France’s DCNS opens a DCNS Australia subsidiary during an official visit to Australia by French president Francois Hollande. DCNS can tout its FREMM frigates for Australia’s ASW program, but recent decisions pointing to the Hobart Class hull as a base give them few options. On the other hand, they are specifically touting their submarine:

“Xavier Mesnet (Submarines Marketing Director at DCNS) told Navy Recognition: “SMX OCEAN is more than a concept ship, it is a concept ship near to be realized”.”

The design’s touted 14,000 mile range would help Australia meet the recent promise of a sub with “longer range and endurance than any diesel/electric submarine currently available off the shelf” (q.v. Nov 12/14), and its SSN heritage removes some of the risks associated with a new boat. On the other hand, Australia is insisting on an American combat system and weapons, which would require design modifications. Then, too, several key technologies, like the propulsion system and fuel cells, come with all of the standard risks accompanying new technologies. Sources: Naval Recognition, “DCNS opens a subsidiary in Australia to better market its SMX OCEAN SSK for the RAN”.

Nov 18/14: Politics. The South Australian Economic Development Board commissions an analysis from the independent National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, to assess the economic ramifications of purchasing 12 submarines overseas versus building them in South Australia. The report finds no cost difference from building in South Australia, and a lot of negative economic impacts from building outside it. What a shock.

ASPI runs an article that attacks the study’s core assumptions. Past projects’ cost blowouts show that skill differences in Australia’s industry have predictable effects, and an unrealistic economic impact model assumes the highly-skilled people involved have no other job options. The Chair of the South Australian government’s Advanced Manufacturing Council replies, defending their costing model and shifting the argument about the input-output model to a discussion about spillovers from new knowledge – with a reference to Sweden’s JAS-39 Gripen fighter program. Sources: Government of South Australia, “New expert economic report supports an Australian submarine build” [PDF] | ASPI, “On economics and submarines” | ASPI, “Submarines: reader response.”

Nov 17/14: Politics. A Labor Party dominated Senate committee says that there aren’t any off-the-shelf submarine options for Australia, and pressures the government to adopt a competitive global tender.

The reasons behind the Liberal Party’s distrust of this option have been discussed (q.v. Sept 11/14), but their own defense minister may have given away their case this week by agreeing that no off-the-shelf option is possible. He’s narrowly correct, in that even Japan’s Soryu would need combat system and weapon swap-outs. On the other hand, there’s a difference between a contention like that, and a belief that the Australian design would be wildly different. The government hasn’t managed its message in a way that makes this clear. Sources: Melbourne Herald-Sun, “Give up on Japanese sub plan: committee”.

Nov 16/14: Germany & Japan. Australian media report that the TKMS proposal to biuld 1 submarine in Germany, and 11 more at ASC in Adelaide, is gaining traction within the Australian government.

If Australia can’t buy the Soryus, or Japan blocks the transfer of key technologies, the government is reportedly looking at having Japan build an evolcved version of the Soryu Class, then have it refitted in Adelaide. Sources: The Advertiser, “New German hope for multibillion-dollar submarine build at Adelaide’s ASC shipyards”.

Nov 12/14: Politics. The Minister for Defence speaks to the Submarine Institute of Australia Biennial conference. Sen. Johnston highlights the view that 2009 should have seen full approval for the next-generation submarine, and highlights the urgency of Australia’s shrunken replacement schedule:

“I am advised that by 2030, half of the world’s submarines will be in Australia’s broader strategic region…. the Government’s priorities are sustaining Collins, followed by the Future Submarine capability, schedule and cost. And I highlight the issue of schedule as being the most challenging constraint as I can not solve for time I don’t have…. Australia’s next submarine will have longer range and endurance than any diesel/electric submarine currently available off the shelf.”

That last quoted line is seized upon by the media, because it shifts the playing field against any off-the-shelf buy. That, in turn, makes anything other than a competitive procurement hard to justify. Which cuts the throat of efforts to keep the replacement schedule on an urgent track, or to build the boats much more quickly abroad. Sen. Johnston does make arguments about the industrial end, but they aren’t widely reported:

“There has been almost $1 billion worth of Defence procurement and sustainment work being undertaken in South Australia this year, and over the next four years, there will be up to $4.2 billion in Defence spending for building and sustaining defence materiel in South Australia…. It is well over 20 years since a submarine was designed for Australia and already over a decade since the last Collins class submarine was launched.”

The government also mentions that they are committed to the processes laid out in the Kinnaird Review, with 1st and 2nd pass approvals, but explicitly avoids committing to any kind of competition. The question is whether the minister has fatally undermined the sole-source option, even so. Sources: Australia DoD, “Minister for Defence – Opening address to the Submarine Institute of Australia Biennial conference, Fremantle WA” | The Australian, “Subs boost for SA — Defence Minister David Johnston rules out ‘off the shelf’ submarine purchase”.

Nov 8/14: Saab bids. Saab CEO Hakan Bushke will be unveiling Saab’s offer to Australia at the Submarine Institute of Australia’s centenary conference, but Australia’s government confirms that it has already received the unsolicited bid. At this point, all the report will say is that:

“It includes a lower price than its competitors and a smooth flow of Japanese submarine [propulsion] technology from the Soryu Class boat, because Sweden is a partner in the Japanese project. There will also be substantial technology transfer and industrial offsets for Australia, including jobs in Adelaide during the build phase.”

The question is whether there will be an open competition. Australia’s government has been handed a program that’s already badly behind, and an existing Collins Class fleet whose cost-effective and performance-effective lifecycle is being questioned. Japan’s Soryu Class is already designed, built, and in service, unlike its German and Swedish competitors. Meanwhile, state-owned ASC has lost this government’s confidence as a shipbuilder, and delays in awarding a contract make it harder to reduce ASC’s role. Sources: News Corp., “Australian jobs promise as Sweden’s Saab Group bids for Navy’s $20 billion plus submarine project”.

Sub advances

Oct 28/14: Enter France? DCNS unveils its 4,750t SMX Ocean concept design at EuroNaval 2014. This diesel-electric attack submarine design is much closer to reality than past SMX concepts, because it’s based on the basic SSN Barracuda nuclear fast attack submarine’s layout, masts, and combat system. Meanwhile, shifts in the global market toward the Pacific and Indian oceans are tilting requirements in favor of larger conventional submarines, with more range and endurance.

Switching out the nuclear reactor does create a bit more space, even with 2nd generation fuel cell technology added to give the submarine a submerged endurance of 3 weeks. A cable-and-collar “saddle” system can be added for deployment and retrieval of UUVs from a mid-body chamber, and a detachable mobile pod aft of the sail can carry a special forces swimmer delivery vehicle. Behind the UUV bay, a 6-shooter for vertically-launched cruise missiles like MBDA’s MdCN/ Scalp Naval is complemented by internal frontal space for 28 weapons in any combination of heavyweight torpedoes, Exocet anti-ship missiles, A3SM anti-aircraft missiles, or mine packages. Items like the Vipere tethered communications and surveillance buoy round out the package.

The key caveat is that this isn’t a prototype, or even a detail design that’s ready for manufacturing. If DCNS wants to compete at this level of capability in markets like Australia or India, they have an advance investment decision ahead of them. Their competitor TKMS already has a contract for the large U218SG, and Australia has also been discussing Japan’s 4,000t Soryu Class. Sources: DCNS, “DCNS unveils SMX-Ocean, a new blue-water SSK with expanded capabilities”.

Sept 15/14: Japan risks. As it becomes clear that Japan is the odds-on favorite, discussion of that choice’s particular risks is coming up. If Australia picks the Soryus, the risks it will accept include some level of opacity with respect to key technologies, like special steels for hull strength. Time will tell, but Japan is also said to be reluctant to transfer all of the boat’s key technologies to Australia. Noise reduction designs in particular transfer naturally, as part of giving Australia full local maintenance capability, but are highly sensitive.

These issues, and the complex nature of these technologies, have industrial implications. The ability to actually build the submarines at ASC would leave no middle ground regarding technology transfer. Worse, experts like Kazuhisa Ogawa and ex-submariner Toshihide Yamauchi estimate that an ASC build could double the cost to the full planned A$ 40 million. This compares rather unfavorably with TKMS’ reported bid submission, but that design promises serious performance and timeliness risks, along with the potential for unexpected costs. Pick your poisons.

Other risks are geopolitical. Hugh White is not a fan of local construction, but his questions go to the heart of the strategic risks:

“How sure can we be that within that time [of the submarines’ delivery and entire service life] Japan will… be a US ally? That it will not have restored its long-standing ban on defence exports? That it will not have become a compliant neighbour of a predominant China, or on the other hand have become China’s bitter enemy? What would happen to our new submarine capability in any of these contingencies?”

Fair questions. Does Australian participation in a project of this magnitude make some of these outcomes less likely? How much less likely, and what role will other macro trends play? Someone needs to be doing this kind of analysis, and Australia’s DoD hasn’t shown great proficiency in the past. Sources: Australia’s ABC, “Soryu submarine deal: Japanese insiders warn sub program will cost more, hurt Australian jobs” | Canberra Times, “Japanese submarine option odds-on favourite”.

Sept 11/14: Germany & Sweden. The Australia Financial Review says that they’ve “confirmed that German submarine builder ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) has submitted a bid for a joint venture with Adelaide-based ASC that comes in at under $20 billion.” What they don’t say are which model of submarine the proposal used, and how cost risk for going beyond that budget would be handled. For instance, an A$ 20 billion bid with 100% escalation risk to the government is effectively an open-ended contract for any amount; vs. an A$ 20 billion contract with a 50/50 sharing arrangement for cost escalation and a $30 billion government cap, which is an A$ 20-30 billion contract. Or a straight A$ 20 billion purchase and delivery contract, which remains at A$ 20 billion unless the government changes the design or decides to negotiate for other reasons. The details matter.

Australian Labor Party leader Bill Shorten has been invoking World War II a lot in his opposition to a built in Japan deal, which makes a collaborative offer from the other former Axis power a mite awkward. Meanwhile, Sweden is committed to making a strong bid, if there is an open competition. Saab CEO Haakan Bushke says that they’re willing to design a 4,000t submarine for Australia, and take ASC and Royal Australian Navy engineers and technicians to work on its new A26 design. He adds:

“As of July 2, Saab completed a full takeover of Kockums which is now Saab Kockums and the Swedish Kingdom now controls the intellectual property for… [Australia’s currently-serving] Collins class submarines…. If there is an open competition, Saab Kockums will be in it.”

The publicity and lobbying builds pressure toward an open tender, which would create 2 distinct policy problems for the Abbott government. One is a policy angle. The Soryu Class is a proven and built design, while TKMS and Saab’s offerings aren’t. This creates a real risk that the new submarines will be delayed (q.v. Sept 8/14), amid questions concerning the Collins Class’ costs and effective lifespan. The 2nd problem is political. Opening competition delays the contract, allowing ASC, unions and the Labor Party to spend a lot of time and effort lobbying. That raises the odds of having the contract outcome and costs dictated by political forces outside the government. Against those negatives, one must weigh the potential for really great competitive offers, which could avoid a complete breach of the Liberal Party’s pre-election commitment to building the boats at ASC. Sources: Australia Financial Review, “Germans undercut Japan on Australia’s submarines” | Australia Financial Review, “Swedes launch desperate bid for Oz submarine project” | Business Insider Australia, “Germany Joins The Race To Build Australia’s New Submarine Fleet” | Business Insider Australia, “Australia Could Get A Great Deal On Its New Submarine Fleet If Tony Abbott Wants It” | Manufacturers’ Monthly, “German company wants to build Australia’s submarines”.

Sept 8/14: Japan. News Corp. reports that the government is fast-tracking their pursuit of Soryu Class submarines, because of growing concerns about the $2+ billion cost of maintaining the Collins boats beyond 2026; some estimates put that cost at more than $2 billion. The government also seems focused on a proven solution; TKMS’ U218SG isn’t, and neither is Saab’s A26. DCNS’ Scorpene, meanwhile, lacks the size and range Australia wants. Hence Soryu, especially given Australia’s urgency:

“The Government cannot afford a submarine capability gap and every day past 2026/27 when Collins class is due to begin decommissioning, adds days of risk,” a senior defence source said.”

Controversy. A second consequence of the government’s risk and cost aversion is that ASC Pty’s performance on the Air Warfare Destroyer project may have relegated them to a service role for the future submarines. In other words, construction in Japan. ASC and the Labor Party are understandably unhappy, arguing that the industry is strategic and that the Collins Class’ reported 21,300 km range is 88% better than even the Soryus. Australia would also need to either modify the Soryus to use American torpedoes, or switch as a fleet to the class’ natural weapon set of American UGM-84 Harpoon missiles and Japanese Type 89 torpedoes.

Cost. A Japanese build would be a big, big geopolitical deal, but the headline’s A$ 20 billion figure is unreliable because it’s based on a statement by Germany’s TKMS, regarding a different submarine. Another report costs a program for 10 Soryu Class boats at A$ 25 billion. Note that even A$ 25 billion is just 69% of the original A$ 36 billion projection for ASC. For perspective, this inherently optimistic build cost means that switching to Soryus leaves about enough money to cover current official costs for Australia’s 2 Canberra Class LHDs and 3 Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyers. If build-out cost in Australia were to hit A$ 40 billion, which is very possible, savings from a Japanese build would pay the estimated A$ 15 billion cost of Australia’s F-35A stealth fighter program.

Politics. Does that level of cost savings negate the political blowback from cutting out ASC? It might, but there are risks. Australia is a Parliamentary system, but Abbot’s government relies on a coalition of 4 parties in the House. If the Liberal Party’s partners don’t bolt the coalition over the issue, and the plan goes forward, the question becomes whether Parliamentary maneuvering can force an issue vote in the Senate. There, the government would need 6 of 8 non-Labor and non-Green votes outside of its own coalition.

Basing. To make things even more interesting, there are also reports that Australia is considering a basing shift to HMAS Coonawarra, up near Darwin in the north. That would drastically improve deployment into theater, as the sailing difference between HMAS Coonawarra and the current submarine base in Australia’s southwest at HMAS Stirling is almost 5,000 km / 2,700 nmi. Unfortunately, HMAS Coonawara is currently just a patrol boat base, and creating a full submarine and support base would be expensive. Especially if the natural harbor isn’t super-deep. The other problem is that basing the RAN’s most strategic assets near Darwin makes it much easier to reach them with weapons like cruise missiles. A forward base near Darwin is possible for refueling and minor service, and it would basically cancel the range difference between the Collins and Soryu classes, but a full basing switch is unlikely.

Sources: News Corp., “New Japanese submarines to cost Abbott Government $20 billion” | Australia’s ABC, “Submarine policy: [Independent Sen.] Nick Xenophon urges PM to ‘end the uncertainty’ over SA project” | The Australian, “Submarine plan a threat to national security: Labor” | 7News, “Darwin submarine base ‘won’t happen’, Australian Defence Association chief Neil James says”.

Japan buy: key issues

July 8/14: Japan. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sign the “Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of Japan Concerning the Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology” at a ceremony in Canberra.

It isn’t the full security cooperation policy mooted in previous reports (q.v. May 28/14), but it’s an immediate step. As expected (q.v. April 6/14), they’re leading off with a joint Marine Hydrodynamics Project between Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) and Japan’s Technical Research and Development Institute (TRDI). In English, they’ll analyze propulsion and water resistance around submarine hulls – and, implicitly, torpedoes. Sources: Australian DoD, “Minister for Defence – Defence Minister David Johnston hails defence science and technology accord with Japan”.

May 28/14: Japan. Reuters reports that Japan is warming to the idea of selling submarines to Australia, but what they want in return is something Australia will need to think about:

“Japan is considering selling submarine technology to Australia – perhaps even a fleet of fully engineered, stealthy vessels, according to Japanese officials. Sources on both sides say the discussions so far have encouraged a willingness to speed up talks…. Japanese military officials and lawmakers with an interest in defense policy have signaled a willingness to consider supplying a full version of the highly regarded Soryu to Australia if certain conditions can be met. These would include concluding a framework agreement on security policy with Canberra that would lock future Australian governments into an alliance with Japan, the [Australian] officials said.”

China’s likely reaction would create diplomatic complications, and limit Australia’s future political options. On the other hand, the Japanese have the one proven design that meets Australia’s needs. Just don’t expect rapid decisions. That isn’t usually the way things are done in Japan. Sources: Reuters, “Japan & Australia consider submarine deal that could rattle China”.

April 12/14: Swedish option? The Collins Class was built around a Swedish design, News Corp Australia says that Saab and the Swedish Government have been engaged in secret talks around a joint submarine effort. That proposed approach may have the potential to cut through many of the dilemmas faced by Australia’s government, and Sweden’s as well. Here’s Australia’s problem, as explained in the SMH:

“This week the Australian Strategic Policy Institute hosted a conference billed as the “Submarine Choice” – but the arguments simply shot past each other. Nothing connected. The Navy stressed its strategic need for submarines without reference to the budget; industry obsessed about the business case without worrying about how such massive expenditure would severely unbalance the forces; while politicians agonised over the need to save jobs and save money, despite the fact these objectives stand in direct contradiction to one another. In the meantime, the bandwagon rolls remorselessly onwards.”

The reported Swedish solution would buy ASC, and embark on a fully cooperative joint design for Sweden and Australia’s next submarines. Australia would receive a design that’s explicitly built for Australia’s needs – a necessary compromise for Sweden, whose needs are different. It’s also worth noting that the Japanese Soryu Class propulsion system that has attracted so much interest from Australia’s Navy is part Swedish. From industry’s point of view, making ASC part of Saab removes any conflict of interests with a foreign firm that acts as the project lead, and creates both development jobs/skills and production work. From the politicians’ point of view, a program that includes Sweden and Australia offers the added security of shared risk, and shared acquisitions. As a starting point, Saab soon buys Kockums from TKMS, after hiring away many of its engineers. Read Saab Story: Sweden’s New Submarines for full coverage.

April 8/14: Minister for Defence Sen. David Johnston gives the speech, but says that the government is still evaluating options and has made no decisions. Since his party had campaigned on building 12 submarines in Australia, he also needs to qualify his way out by invoking his statement that “…if anything the Minister has said is based on fantasy, we’ll tell you and we’ll revisit this.” He does put industry on notice that the priority is performance rather than jobs, and adds that the priority isn’t X number of submarines, but a stable submarine capability that matches what Australia can afford and operate.

Taken as simple logical propositions, both points are extremely sensible. The government can expect to face strong lobbying from the shipyard and its associated unions, and that’s already starting, but the sheer size of the price tag involved means that the unions’ traditional allies on the left aren’t going to fight very hard alongside them. Observers are speculating that that the minister’s framework means 6-9 submarines, but no-one knows at this point. Sources: Australia DoD, “Minister for Defence – Speech – Address for the ASPI conference” | Australia DoD, “Minister for Defence – [Q&A] Transcript – ASPI Conference” | ASPI, “The Submarine Choice: ASPI’s International Conference, Canberra” | State-owned ABC, “Submarines off-the-shelf would breach promises to South Australia, says Penny Wong” | The Age, “Why do we need more submarines?” | The Australian, “Cheaper submarines ‘risk the lives of sailors’”.

April 7/14: Rethink? Looks like the stirrings of discontent earlier this year (q.v. Jan 29/14, Dec 17/13) are about to become more real. Minister for Defence Sen. David Johnston is scheduled to make a speech at ASPI on April 9/14, and there’s considerable speculation that he will change the submarine program in 3 important ways. One, he may choose to cut the program from 12 boats to 9, on both cost and operational capacity grounds. Two, he will force ASC to make a case to win the work, saying that the Navy’s strategic centerpiece “is not a job-creation program”. Third, there’s the clear implication that if the ASC case isn’t good enough, some or all of the submarines may be built abroad. As a final wrinkle, talks continue with Japan regarding their large Soryu Class boats, shortly after Japan relaxes their restrictions on exporting weapon technologies:

“When asked yesterday what aspects of the Japanese boats might be included in an Australian design, a senior government source replied: “Everything.”…pressed on whether that included buying the boats off-the-shelf from the Japanese the answer was an emphatic “yes”.”

The usual approach is to build the first few boats aboard, with some local workers sent to participate, and then begin production locally. That would create an industrial timing problem for ASC, but if the government replaces 3 submarines with a 4th Hobart Class air defense destroyer, it could enhance Australia’s naval and missile defense options while covering the industrial gap. Sources: News Australia, “Australia in talks to buy Japanese submarines to upgrade fleet” | Sydney Morning Herald, “Coalition casts doubt on plan to replace Collins Class submarines”.

April 6/14: Japan. Jane’s reports that Australia and Japan have agreed to start talks on creating a framework for defense technology co-operation, with an initial project involving joint research into marine hydrodynamics.

“An official at the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) told IHS Jane’s said this would include the analysis of propulsion and water resistance around submarine hulls.”

The message to Jane’s also suggested that the propulsion technology that so interests in Australians was deemed too sensitive. Instead, Japan’s Technical Research and Development Institute and Australia’s DSTO would begin collaboration here. Japanese decision making processes are slow, especially in an area so likely to create tensions with China. Will they be too slow for the decisions Australia needs to begin making? Sources: IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, “Japan, Australia agree to joint research on submarines, hydrodynamics”.

March 6/14: Evolved Collins. It isn’t new to say that Australian politicians seem to be leaning toward an evolved Collins Class submarine, given the riskiness of designing a new boat. The political dynamics at work are more interesting:

“An evolved Collins-class has emerged as the favoured option for Australia’s next generation of submarines amid signs the much maligned existing boats will remain in service beyond 2030…. Few sources close to defence believe it will opt for a new design given the risk of having an orphan boat class. Treasurer Joe Hockey is said to be uneasy with the mooted pricetag of $36 billion. Defence Minister David Johnston has also cast doubt on whether Australia will double its fleet to 12, saying the number first mooted in the former prime minister’s 2009 white paper has never been justified.”

The report also says that decision makers are more comfortable leaving the Collins Class in service until 2030 – ironically, because they’ve been defective so often and spent so much time out of water. Sources: Australian Financial Review, “Evolved Collins favourite but timing unclear”.

Jan 20/14: Political pushback. The A$ 30-40 billion size of the future submarine project guarantees political scrutiny, but that won’t really begin until it’s a near-term project rather than just funded studies. The Sydney Morning Herald decides to start as the new center-right Liberal Party government prepares its 1st budget, and it’s coming from a right-wing source:

“Whatever one may think of [new Board member] Mirabella [q.v. Dec 17/13], she is an economic dry and does not shirk the dirty work of confronting spendthrift bureaucrats, military brass and trade unions, all of whom have treated the Australian Submarine Corporation and the Defence Materiel Organisation as a giant honey pot.

Both organisations are impervious to competence…. The idea that Australia should produce a dozen submarines in South Australia, at a projected cost of about $3 billion a vessel, is madness…. The new submarines will have a unit cost that dwarfs the Collins-class subs if built here, or roughly three times the cost of acquiring the submarines from foreign shipyards. The navy disputes this disparity but history does not.”

As many observers have noted before: please tell us how you really feel, Paul Sheehan. More seriously, this is an early sign that Abbott’s traditional allies may not be solidly behind the program as currently conceived. Meanwhile, the Labor Party is no longer in power, and hence no longer really bound to defend a program that will demand many more dollars for national defense. Sources: Sydney Morning Herald, “Future Submarine project a farce that has missed a mention”.

2013

Combat system picked. Potential work with Japan? click to read

Dec 17/13: ASC Board. Former Liberal Party MP Sophie Mirabella, a 12-year incumbent who was the only party incumbent to lose her seat in the recent election, is appointed to ASC’s Board of Directors by Prime Minister Tony Abbott, alongside new members Peter Iancov and Paul Rizzo.

Ms. Mirabella does have qualifications as the Coalition’s Shadow Minister for Innovation, Industry and Science while they were in opposition, and is known as a strong opponent of public sector waste. It’s arguable that ASC could use both, given the scale and importance of the projects they’re handling, and will soon begin to execute. Prime Minister Abbott could certainly use a critically-minded loyalist on the inside, to avert problems or at least give him advance warning of any nasty surprises. Now he has one. Sources: Minister for Finance, “Appointment of Three New Board Members to ASC Pty Ltd” | Sydney Morning Herald, “Coalition appoints Sophie Mirabella to board of government-owned shipbuilding firm”.

May 16/13: IP deal. Australia’s government signs a deal with Sweden’s FMV procurement agency, Intellectual Property rights for submarine design and technology. As RAND’s 2011 report had noted (q.v. Dec 13/11), this was a major stumbling block for any sort of Evolved Collins design.

The agreement covers use of Collins Class submarine technology for the Future Submarine Program. It also creates a framework and principles for the negotiation of Intellectual Property rights, if Australia wants to be able to use and disclose other Swedish submarine technology for an Evolved Collins solution. Disclosure is included because there are sub-contractors et. al. who require some level of disclosure in order to work on the project. Defense Ministers Joint Communique | Australia DoD.

Swedish Intellectual Property Agreement

May 2/13: White Paper. The Labor government’s 2013 defense white paper rejects the safer and quicker options of buying or modifying an existing class from abroad. Instead, they’ll focus on options #3 & 4: an evolved design of the Collins Class, or a completely new Australian design. As part of that decision, they’re going to continue with the American AN/BYG-1 combat system as their standard. It equips every class of American nuclear submarines thanks to a combination of initial installs and systems modernizations, and a BYG-1(V)8 variant was inserted into the current Collins Class as Project SEA 1439 Phase 4A.

This is a decision that exacerbates both the performance risks so amply illustrated by the Collins Class to date, and the risks of delayed in-service date for new boats. Which is why it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the government has extended their estimates of how long the Collins Class can serve. Unless they want a gap where Australia loses its submarines entirely, or operates with a much-reduced force, delays and decisions to date mean that the government can’t say anything else. Whether their study’s carefully-couched conclusion is true in an operational sense is a different question.

On the topic of performance risks, even with the new Submarine Propulsion Energy Support and Integration Facility, the submarine skills plan, and government plans to improve productivity in Australian shipbuilding, the new submarine decision expands almost every possible risk facing the Australian Navy’s future strategic centerpiece. It may be that a new propulsion system can fix some of the Collins Class’ problems, but the boats’ problems over the years have stemmed from a wide variety of defects and failures, across multiple systems. There are conflicting reports regarding the extent and success of the fixes tried to date, and one can be forgiven some skepticism that the same organizations responsible for the present situation can create or insert new designs that solve all of their previous mistakes. Since the systems will be new, or at the very least not proven in operations with the boat they’re inserted into, it’s also more than possible that “unforeseen” delays will make it hard to get new boats into service before the existing fleet becomes unfit for purpose.

In exchange, of course, the government gets to promise more spending with a state-owned firm (ASC) and its sub-contractors, on behalf of a Labor Party whose political standing is shaky, a few months before an election. Future Submarine Industry Skills Plan | Australia DoD release | ASC | ASPI | ASPI Shipbuilding timeline.

2013 White Paper, Combat System picked

Feb 13/13: Japan. The New Pacific Institute reports that Japanese media are now openly discussing a Soryu Class deal with Australia, and chronicles the process so far. Bottom line: If a deal is consummated, it’s going to be a delicate process of mutual trade-offs, not a straightforward transaction:

“The article did not offer much additional detail about how the process from here is likely to unfold, although it did frame the technology transfer as part of a supposedly mutual desire to balance against Chinese naval activities. It nevertheless suggests that defense officials are still considering the plan and that the chances are good that something will come out of the process notwithstanding any domestic or international backlash. The main issue for the Japanese side likely revolves what level of information and access to provide to the Royal Australian Navy.”

The relaxation of Japan’s export laws was meant to support joint development projects like the SM-3 Block IIA, rather than a 1-way transfer of technology to a foreign shipbuilder. Japan sees submarines as a strategic technology for its own preservation, and must weigh the risk of dissemination against the potential benefits. NPI doesn’t believe that complicating China’s life is enough of an inducement all by itself. Meanwhile, Australia knows that it wants a large diesel-electric sub, and believes that Japan has a reliable propulsion system design. Cooperation that stops short of full-scale licensed submarine construction might be an option for both parties.

2012

Initial studies budget; Is the project about pork-barrel politics, at the expense of defending Australia? Japan’s Soryu Class enters the mix; Kokoda’s shoddy study. JS Soryu
(click to view full)

Nov 15/12: Requirements. David Feeney, Parliamentary Secretary of Defence, speaks to the Submarine Institute of Australia Biennial Conference. He describes regional trends that could see A$ 44 billion spent by 2021 and up to 150 diesel-electric submarines operational, offers a naval “sea control” doctrine formulation straight from Sir Julian Corbett, and adds more clarity to his government’s expectations for the future submarine:

“Denial retains a place, but sea control operations ensure that Australian response options are not constrained and our freedom of action is not threatened. It is inconceivable that Australia can achieve sea control – a requirement for successful maritime power projection – without submarines.

Government is resolved that the Future Submarine will have greater range, longer endurance on patrol, and expanded capabilities (i.e. communications) as compared to the current Collins Class submarine. The Future Submarine must be able to carry different mission payloads such as uninhabited underwater vehicles (UUVs)… conduct strike operations against military targets, including an adversary’s operating bases, staging areas and critical military infrastructure.

Relative to other nations that operate diesel-electric submarines, the Future Submarine must operate across exceptionally vast distances… Asia-Pacific possesses numerous critical maritime nodes – notably the Malacca Strait, Sunda Strait, and Lombok Strait- all of which are critical to the global economy. These nodes are 2,000 or even 3,000 nm from [naval base] HMAS Stirling.”

The problem is that those requirements amount to a unique requirements set that will add massive costs to the project, along with risk that the next batch will fail like the Collins Class. Industry infrastructure is acknowledged to be shaky. Could the same money be used to buy an existing design, along with the sub tenders needed to give it all of that range and more? Or a set of submarines plus other critical sea control forces (like maritime aircraft)? Very likely. But the “made in Australia” rhetoric is all about jobs and perceived government largesse first, and defense second. Australia DoD Transcript.

Nov 14/12: Jobs justification. Jason Claire, Minister for Defence Materiel, speaks to the Submarine Institute of Australia’s 6th Biennial Conference. He begins by justifying the need for large submarines, on the grounds that they need to operate at long ranges. There are other approaches which could address this issue, but it makes for a useful uniqueness justification when he gets to the speech’s point – justifying his decision to build all of the submarines in Australia.

That approach significantly raises the risks of program failure, and of failure to replace existing boats in time. If the submarines really were a strategic priority, an approach that had the first 2-3 subs built abroad with Australian engineers on site, and the rest built locally as expertise grows, would be the obvious plan. Note, too, Claire’s use of the word “design,” indicating that despite government assurances, use of an existing submarine design isn’t getting serious consideration from this government:

“…will create thousands of jobs and work for hundreds of Australian companies. More than this it will create a new Australian industry… It will take decades to build 12 submarines, and by the time the last is built the first will need to be replaced. It’s not a short project. It will go on and on. It will create an industry that could last for a century or more. That industry should be here. That industry also has flow on benefits. It will build skills useful for other industries and technology… also build the capabilities and skills of our universities and our technical colleges… it is important we have an indigenous capability that can design, develop, build and maintain submarines.

That is not something we can or should do on our own… But we also can’t, and shouldn’t, outsource the whole task… Acquiring nuclear powered submarines… [means] outsourcing the construction, maintenance and sustainment of the submarines… built overseas, they would have to be fuelled, docked, defueled and disposed of overseas. That means tens of billions of dollars for acquisition and sustainment over decades that could be invested in Australia, spent overseas.

We have got a valley of death between the last AWD and the start of construction of the first future submarine. It’s a valley where jobs are lost and the skills we need will disappear… We need to fix this. This is the job of the Future Submarines Industry Skills Plan that I will receive next month.”

Sept 6/12: Infrastructure. Australia’s government announces that the Future Submarine Systems Centre will be based in Adelaide, South Australia. There had been some concern that the work might migrate elsewhere, but this is where Australia’s naval shipbuilding infrastructure is located.

The Systems Centre is set to formally open in 2013 as the home of the Future Submarine program, much as the AWD Centre in Adelaide has been the home of the A$ 8 billion Air Warfare Destroyer program. There are already staff working on the project, but they are based at state-owned shipbuilder ASC. Once they move, the center will be used to conduct evaluation of options, design work, program management, engineering, logistics and production planning. Over the next few years, it will grow to include hundreds of Defence personnel from Navy, the Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO), the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO), and defense contractors.

There has also been a steady drumbeat of criticism over Australia’s slow decision-making, and the government’s readiness to choose an industrial structure that will roughly double the program’s cost to A$ 36 billion or more, and introduce significant risk. Even as the RAN has extreme difficulties sustaining and manning its existing fleet of 6 Collins Class subs. The government is sticking to the 2009 plan of 12 new submarines to be assembled in South Australia, with the same 4 options under study, etc. The minister adds that this commitment will be reinforced as part of the 2013 Defence White Paper.

Aug 28/12: Where’s Coles Review 2? Liberal Party opposition defense critic Sen. Johnston releases a statement:

“Part 2 of the Coles Review of the Sustainment of Australia’s Collins Class Submarines was expected to be handed to the Minister in April, but in spite of the Minister declaring Collins Class sustainment was at the top of the Government’s Project of Concern List, it is still nowhere to be seen… I can see why the Defence Minister isn’t exactly pushing down Mr Coles’ door as Part 1 of his report was a damning indictment… Senator Johnston said this year alone taxpayers will spend close to $1 billion on maintenance and sustainment of the Collins Class with only one, sometimes two out of six submarines operationally ready at any one time.”

The review doesn’t arrive until mid-December 2012.

July 25 – Aug 3/12: Breakdowns & delays. After reporting a successful torpedo firing and sinking exercise during RIMPAC 2012, Australia’s DoD reveals that a leak is forcing HMAS Farncomb to return to port immediately. The Liberal Party’s shadow defence minister, David Johnston, reminds Sydney Morning Herald readers that these kinds of breakdowns are all too common, while highlighting the timing problem that could leave Australia without a viable fleet. The time for a decision, he says, is now:

“The ASPI report described the gap between when all the Collins Class have been retired and the time it would take to build a replacement as “nothing short of catastrophic”… three years “of no submarines at all”… After some prodding the Minister also declared [in May 2012, 3 years after the White Paper] a final decision on the replacement would not be made until late 2013 or 2014 – in other words, not until after the next election… all against the backdrop of our submarines being so operationally fragile that competing in exercises with allies becomes a case of going in with fingers crossed… We also have our submariners reluctantly leaving the Navy because they simply don’t get time at sea doing what they signed up to do.”

July 9/12: Japan’s Soryu? RAN Future Submarine Program head Rear-Admiral Rowan Moffitt, and DMO Chief Defence Scientist Dr. Alexander Zelinsky are traveling to Japan to look at the country’s new 4,200t Soryu (“Blue Dragon”) Class/ 16SS submarines.

Japan relaxed its ban on weapon exports somewhat in December 2011, which opens up the possibility of an Australian-built submarine derivative. On the flip side, the previous ban means that Japanese firms lack the same kind of technology transfer and off-site quality control experience that has been earned over the years by Germany’s HDW (Greece, India, South Korea, Turkey), and France’s DCNS (Brazil, India).

The Soryus have a Stirling Air Independent Propulsion system, and began service just 3 years ago. They’re also much larger than competitors like France’s 2,060t MESMA AIP equipped AM-2000 Scorpene. That makes the Soryus attractive to Australia, and some think they might have the range and capacity Australia needs. It’s worth noting that smaller submarines like Germany’s 1,830t U212As have traveled thousands of miles while submerged, and technically have a longer range than the Soryus. Still, bigger is better to some. The Japanese subs do offer a lot more space for weapons, and a similar submarine design might offer interesting opportunities for Australian-Japanese operational cooperation. Adelaide Now | Sydney Morning Herald.

May 3/12: Initial budget & plans. Australia’s Labor Party government announces a budget of another A$ 214 million for the next stage of the Future Submarine Project, and appoints Mr. David Gould as the DoD’s General Manager of Submarines, working within the DMO and reporting directly to its CEO. The initial budget will pay for detailed studies and analysis to inform the design choice, the cost/ capability tradeoffs, and the workforce skills requirements to build them in Australia. Those funds are on top of the government’s December 2011 RFI, and the contract with Babcock for a land-based propulsion testing site.

Overall, the Government announces that they’re considering 4 broad options for diesel-electric fast attack submarines, as outlined above. with respect to the studies and work conducted:

Scientific and technological studies will be conducted primarily by the Australian DoD’s Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO).

The off-the-shelf studies will be undertaken with same trio of firms who were sent the December 2011 RFI: DCNS (Scorpene), TKMS HDW (U212A/214), and Navantia (S-80). TKMS Kockums will perform the evolved design studies for the Collins Class, as they were its original designers.

An interesting 2nd look will happen within the AUSMIN framework agreed in November 2010. US technical cooperation will involve capability modeling for both off-the-shelf and evolved Collins options. Systems Performance and Analysis, and GD Electric Boat, will do that work under a US Foreign Military Sales case.

The workforce skills plan will be developed by a team be led by the DoD’s Defence Materiel Organisation CEO, Mr. Warren King, and supported by an Expert Industry Panel headed by Mr. David Mortimer, AO. The Expert Industry Panel will include representatives of the Navy; DMO; the Department of Industry, Innovation, Science, Research and Tertiary Education; Skills Australia; unions; the CEOs of ASC, Austal, BAE Systems and Forgacs Engineering; and the Australian CEOs for local subsidiaries of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, Thales, Saab Systems and BAE Systems. Australia DoD.

Budget & Studies

April 23/12: An interview with Minister for Defence Stephen Smith touches on the Collins Class’ ongoing problems, and the decisions to be taken regarding Australia’s future submarines. An excerpt:

“So there are capability issues [with the operating ranges required for Australian submarines] but no decisions have been made other than the Government ruling out a nuclear [propulsion] option… Australia does not have a nuclear industry, and if we acquired nuclear submarines that would effectively see the outsourcing to another country of our maintenance and sustainment… We remain committed to 12 submarines assembled in Australia.

“…Whether there is a gap in capability will in the end depend upon the decision that we make about the new submarine, firstly; secondly, the length of life or the life of type of the Collins Class Submarine. That is currently not known… one of the studies we have currently under way is a study trying to better define the life of type of the Collins Class Submarine… it would have been in my view wrong – indeed, irresponsible – to have leapt into a Future Submarine Project without trying to address the long-standing endemic, systemic difficulties that we’ve had with the Collins Class Submarine.”

April 21/12: Captain’s Critique. Commander James Harrap, a 20-year navy veteran, resigns from the RAN after commanding both HMAS Waller and HMAS Collins. While the boats and their crews had “serviced the navy well and achieved much,” the media obtain a copy of his overall assessment. It is stark and scathing: scrap the class.

“I don’t believe the Collins-class are sustainable in the long term and many of the expensive upgrade plans which have been proposed would be throwing good money after bad… Over the last two years, I believe these problems have become worse… Throughout my command of both Collins and Waller, full capability was never available and frequently over 50 per cent of the identified defects were awaiting stores… Collins has consistently been let down by some fundamental design flaws, leading to poor reliability and inconsistent performance. The constant stream of defects and operation control limitations makes getting to sea difficult, staying at sea harder and fighting the enemy a luxury only available once the first two have been overcome.”

The submarines’ diesel engines come in for special criticism, but they are far from his only target. His final conclusion has special relevance to Australia’s next-generation program: “I do not believe we have the capability to independently design and build our own submarines.” The Australian.

Jan 19/12: Kokoda criticized. The Kokoda Foundation releases its study “Sub Judice: Australia’s Future Submarine,” written by former ASC employee Brice Pacey. It concludes that no off-the-shelf conventional submarine can meet Australia’s requirements, and that a nuclear submarine program is unaffordable and unmanageable. Instead, it recommends “an evolution of the Collins design,” and claim that “the cost of building the submarine will be markedly less than some published estimates… there is no cost penalty for an Australian build.” These statements are from the foundation’s release; the full document itself is a for-fee publication.

While there is widespread agreement that nuclear-powered SSN fast attack boats are not a realistic option for Australia, the foundation’s other 3 conclusions draw fire. First, submarine-builder ASC’s sponsorship of the paper has led several observers to question the study’s seriousness and objectivity. The critics add that requirements themselves are arbitrary, unless the gaps involving current state-of-the-art submarines create serious mission problems, and the cost to field a 100% solution is acceptable. Given the demonstrated capabilities of submarines like the U214, they see the capability gap as too small, and the price gap as too large.

On which topic, reports indicate Kokoda estimates of just A$ 18 billion for the 12 boats, which is, indeed, significantly less than other published estimates. The history of the Collins Class, with respect to both build costs and performance, is not overly encouraging, and the credibility of this estimate has been deeply doubted. ASPI analyst Andrew Davies summed up this view with a Carl Sagan quote: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” Kokoda Foundation release [PDF] | Canberra Times | Lowy Institute for International Policy.

2011

German “Type 216”?; Learning from other submarine programs – including Australia’s. U214 cutaway
(click to view full)

Dec 28/11: Type 216? HDW has released details of a 4,000t “Type 216” concept design, which appears to be targeted at Australia’s SEA 1000 future submarine program.

Australian sources have expressed concerns that the U214, and other boats investigated in the RFI, may not have the size and range to meet Australia’s specification. This may or may not be accurate, but a larger design could conceivably appeal to customers like Australia, India, and possibly Canada one day.

With doubts growing that an Australian-designed successor to the Collins class boat cannot be ready by the 2025 deadline, HDW might find some traction with a large submarine that offered 10,400 nm/ 19.240 km notional range, Air-Independent Propulsion for long underwater patrols; and the ability to launch cruise missiles, a special forces swimmer delivery vehicle, or UUVs. The flip side is that first-of-class boats can be problematic, even if the class is designed by a very experienced and skilled firm. The Greek experience with the 1st of class Papanikolis (U214) is instructive here. Canberra Times | Navy Recognition (incl. drawings).

click to read

Dec 13/11: Studies & Contenders. The Phase 1 Coles Review into the Collins Class’ difficulties is released, and goes as far as calling Australia’s approach to managing submarines “unfit for purpose.” The same day, Australia’s DoD releases RAND’s requested report of lessons learned from US, UK, and Australian submarine programs, and discusses the class options they’re investigating:

“Options for the Future Submarine range from a proven fully Military off the Shelf design through to a completely new submarine. All options are being considered, other than nuclear propulsion which the Government has ruled out… The Government has approved the release of Requests for Information to three overseas submarine designers… [to] provide a better understanding of the capabilities of off-the-shelf options.”

The list deals a blow to recent reports, as it’s made up of France’s DCNS (Scorpene), Germany’s TKMS HDW (Type 214), and Australia’s biggest shipbuilding partner, Spain’s Navantia (S-80). TKMS’ Swedish Kockums subsidiary, who worked with Australia to design the Collins Class, didn’t see its developmental A26 Class make the list.

The government isn’t stopping there. Australia’s DoD has signed a contract with Babcock Australia to study a land-based propulsion systems test facility, and the Defence Materiel Organisation has been ordered to develop a Future Submarine Industry Skills Plan, in consultation with Australia’s defense industry. Meanwhile, the Government refers to the discussions and agreement with the USA at AUSMIN 2010, regarding Australian-United States cooperation on submarine systems, which “will extend into future submarine acquisition program.” That could add one more advantage to Navantia, whose S-80 uses a number of American technologies. Australia DoD | RAND Report | Coles Review, Phase 1 [PDF].

Coles Review & RAND Report

Oct 15/11: The Labor Party government’s leader in the Senate, Chris Evans, indicates that components and possibly modules of Australia’s future submarines are expected to be built beyond South Australia, and even overseas. This is not a surprising plan, given the history of the Collins Class, but it creates political sparks. ASC, of course, is lobbying to keep everything it can in-house. The Australian | Adelaide Now.

Oct 15/11: Australian media report on the Collins Class’ annual costs, and future sub competition:

“Figures obtained by the Herald Sun, show the six Collins subs cost about $630 million a year – or $105 million each – to maintain, making them the most expensive submarines ever to put to sea… A US Navy Ohio Class nuclear attack submarine – more than three times the size of a Collins boat – costs about $50 million a year to operate.

The cost figures are revealed as Defence officials say at least two possible contenders for the navy’s new submarine fleet – the Spanish S-80 and French-Spanish Scorpene class boat – have been ruled out of the future submarine project.”

If true, one wonders what’s left. Sweden is just beginning to design a new A26 Class, and Germany’s HDW has its U214. Russian designs aren’t a realistic option. The other possibility is that Australia might seek, once again, to design its own submarine. Herald Sun | Courier Mail, incl. infographic | Australia’s Daily Telegraph.

July 25/11: The Australian reports that Australia’s DoD:

“…will seek US help with Australia’s plan to build 12 big conventional submarines to replace the navy’s six troubled Collins-class boats… After initial problems with the Collins fleet a decade ago, the US provided a state-of-the-art combat system and the latest technology to improve the subs’ propulsion systems and make them less noisy.”

July 19/11: Coles Review begins. Labor Party Defence Minister Stephen Smith admits that there are “long-term difficulties” with the Collins Class submarine fleet, and announces a full independent review led by British private sector expert John Coles. The Minister cites too many stretches where only 1-2 submarines have been available, and there are reportedly doubts that the subs’ diesel engines are robust enough to last until 2025 as planned:

“These problems are significant and highly technically complex. At times we have seen as few as one Collins Class submarine available for operations. This situation is unacceptable but will not be addressed simply by continuation of the status quo… As a consequence, the Government will conduct a review into the optimal commercial framework for the conduct of Collins Class Submarine sustainment… My ambition is that the Coles Review will do for the Collins Class Submarine what the Rizzo Report has done for our amphibious fleet capability: a clear sighted path to improve the sustainment and availability of the Collins Class Submarines… Without having confidence in our capacity to sustain our current fleet of submarines, it is very difficult to fully commence, other than through initial planning, the acquisition program for our Future Submarine. This is consistent with the absolute necessity to work very hard in the early days to get projects right and thereby avoid, reduce, and minimise project difficulties down the track.”

The Coles Review has been asked to provide an interim report by December 2011, and a final version by March 2012. The key questions are how long this will delay Australia’s future submarine program, and whether the review will include political-structural weaknesses in the program, or confine itself to procedures. Minister for Defence ASPI transcript | ASC release | Adelaide Now | Australian Broadcasting Corp. and ABC AM radio | Canberra Times | Queensland’s Courier-Mail | Sydney Morning Herald | The Australian.

May 15/11: Australia’s Kokoda Foundation releases “Under the Sea Air Gap: Australia’s Anti-Submarine Warfare Challenge. The study “attempts to identify issues surrounding Australia’s Anti Submarine Warfare capabilities that will require greater scrutiny in the period leading up to the 2014 Defence White Paper.”

Author Brice Pacey is concerned that the design for Australia’s next-generation submarines might not be complete until 2019, and the first boat might not be ready until 2030. With the Collins Class scheduled to begin retiring in the mid-2020s, that would present a problem. Australia would need to either extend the lives of a class that has not performed well or reliably, or accept a vestigial submarine fleet even as it neighbors build up their capabilities. See also Adelaide Now.

April 14/11: Australia’s ASPI think-tank releases “The once and future submarine – raising and sustaining Australia’s underwater capability.” Based on past acquisitions, beginning the future submarine program immediately would only deliver the 1st boat in 2025; further delays would create timing issues with the Collins Class’ retirement. On which subject:

“…the boats have spent so little time in the water due to maintenance and crewing problems that the hulls have not been pressure cycled anywhere near to the extent anticipated. However, a life-of-type extension for the Collins is not an especially appealing prospect for a number of reasons. To start with, the drive train in the Collins has been problematic since day one, and attempts to keep the fleet going into the late 2020s would almost certainly require work to replace the highly problematic diesel engines (which are already ‘orphans’ in the world of maritime diesels). That alone is an undertaking requiring major engineering work, not to mention a lot of money. It is a simple fact of geometry that the engines can only be removed by cutting the pressure hull. Given that less complex mid-cycle dockings are taking 100 weeks to complete (against an anticipated 52 weeks), this exercise would result in considerable downtime. It could be that every five years of additional life would come at the cost of one or two extra years out of the water and/or conducting sea trials for each boat being upgraded. This would further exacerbate the already disappointingly low availability of the fleet.”

2009 – 2010

Australia’s White Paper sets an ambitious target. Collins Class
(click to view full)

Jan 27/10: Australian DoD:

“There have been inaccurate reports today that the Rudd Government was reconsidering its decision to build our future submarines in Adelaide[, Australia]. These reports are false. The Rudd Government is fully committed to building our new future submarines in Adelaide.”

Jan 25/10: The Collins Class submarine HMAS Farncomb encounters a generator failure, which reduces Australia’s operational Collins Class submarine fleet to 1 boat in 6. The cost of repairs is not yet predictable, and the mechanical issue could extend beyond HMAS Farncomb.

Continuing issues with the class also lead to questions concerning the feasibility of, and proposed strategy for, Australia’s next-generation submarine program. Read “Australia’s Submarine Program in the Dock” for full coverage.

Nov 5/09: Acting Minister for Defence Greg Combet highlights the major challenges facing Australia’s next generation submarine project in a speech to the Sydney Institute. Excerpts of “From Collins to Force 2030: The Challenge of the Future Submarine“:

“…the White Paper recognises that the aim of establishing sea and air control in our primary operating environment does not entail a purely defensive or reactive approach. Rather, we must be able to conduct proactive combat operations at a distance from our shores. This demands a mix of intelligence, defensive and strike assets to ensure both deterrence and, if that were to fail, an ability to impose unacceptably high costs… Put simply, we need to be able to take warfare to an adversary’s front door. Submarines are able to stop an adversary from deploying its’ fleet by maintaining sea denial. By imposing disproportionate costs on an adversary, submarines represent an asymmetric threat well suited to Australia’s defence.

…In planning for the future submarine, we need to consider a range of engineering and production solutions, ranging from the acquisition of a Military Off The Shelf (MOTS) design, options consistent with the Kinnaird/Mortimer reforms, to a developmental solution designed indigenously… Electric Boat have a rule known as the ‘law of 1:3:8’, that is, a task that takes an hour in module construction takes 3 hours when the hull has been assembled and 8 hours when the submarine is in the water. In other words, make sure the design is mature before you start cutting steel.

…Studies have shown that 90 per cent of the discretionary decisions that affect the outcome of a project are made in the first 7 to 12 per cent of the project’s life. There are three things that we must get right… adequately define the operating concepts and requirements for the future submarine… develop a sophisticated acquisition strategy [which may include rolling production or batch buys]… understand the interaction between capability and the acquisition strategy. It is often the interaction between these two processes that leads to trouble.

One of the matters that we will need to tackle early in the project is the need to invest in and develop a sustainable industrial base that is capable of designing, constructing and maintaining 12 large submarines [which will include cooperation with US Navy facilities].”

Nov 3/09: RAND study commissioned. The Sydney Morning Herald quotes Acting Defence Minister Greg Combet, who says that the USA’s RAND Corporation will be conducting a study related to the submarine project, due in February 2010:

“(Defence) is undertaking a number of studies to identify and explore all the options to ensure we have the appropriate design capability to support our submarines throughout their life.”

See also SpaceWar article.

Oct 29/09: The Australian Strategic Policy Institute releases “Strategic Insights 48 – How to buy a submarine: Defining and building Australia’s future fleet.” ASPI projects an $A 36 billion (currently about $32.6 billion) cost to field 12 built-in-Australia diesel-electric submarines – a sum comparable to buying 12 of the USA’s most advanced SSN-774 Virginia class nuclear fast attack submarines. OIt adds:

“As described, the resultant boats are likely to be the largest, most complex and, at $3 billion each, the most expensive conventional submarines ever built. The industrial capacity and capability to produce these vessels does not exist in Australia at the moment. By the time construction commences, it will be over fifteen years since the last Collins-class submarine was launched. Hard-earned lessons from that process will need to be re-learned in many cases and the required engineering and construction skills will have to be built up to the required level… This paper, authored by Sean Costello and Andrew Davies, surveys the complexities that have to be negotiated and suggests a way ahead that makes best use of the resources available to government.”

See also Full report [PDF].

May 2/09: Australia’s 2009 Defence White Paper is released. One of its goals is a fleet of 12 non-nuclear diesel-electric submarines with Air-Independent Propulsion, capable of launching land attack cruise missiles, to be assembled in South Australia. Design to be determined. ASC is not guaranteed the contract, however, something Fitzgibbon had pledged during the election.

The subs could be upgraded versions of the existing Collins class, or a foreign partnership around a sub like Spain’s S-80, which will already be designed to launch Tomahawk missiles.

The Collins class will also receive sonar and other upgrades during their lifetime.

White Paper

Appendix A: Foreign Contenders CM-2000 Scorpene
(click to view full)

Once Australia decided to field new submarines, the next question was “which submarines”? Off-the-shelf designs, or a modified variant that kept the structure but used Australian combat systems and weapons, were 2 of the 4 options under consideration until May 2013.

The 4 contenders that evaluated as potential off-the-shelf or modified design buys were:

• DCNS’ Scorpene, which has been bought by Brazil, Chile, India, and Malaysia. It includes an option to add the MESMA AIP(Air-Independent Propulsion) section, for longer underwater running time.

• Navantia’s S-80. So far, only Spain has bought it, but it’s designed for size, range, and compatibility with American systems & weapons. Navantia is also the RAN’s biggest shipbuilding partner, with very deep experience and partnerships thanks to the Air Warfare Destroyer and LHD projects.

• TKMS HDW’s U212A/U214, which has been sold to Germany, Greece, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey. South Korea’s world-leading shipbuilding firms can even build the design under license, which may create interesting collaboration opportunities in Australia. The class comes with AIP built-in, and has undertaken some long trips in German service. A larger 4,000t U218 design has also been discussed by TKMS, and sold to Singapore.

• Japan’s new 4,200t Soryu Class, which is far larger than any of the European submarines. It’s also an AIP submarine, using a Stirling system from TKMS in Sweden. Japan changed some of its laws in December 2011, allowing it to export some items to vetted allies.

Additional Readings

• Australia DoD – Defence Capability Plan 2009 Public Version: SEA 1000.

• DID – Australia’s Submarine Program In the Dock. Covers issues with the Collins Class.

• The Submarine Institute of Australia. Wide-ranging work in this general area, and on this program specifically. See their May 5/11 “FAQ for the Future Submarine,” among others.

• Project Gutenberg – Some Principles of Maritime Strategy by Sir Julian Stafford Corbett. His theories of naval power are similar to Australia’s goals and vision for their submarine force.

Official Reports

• Australia DoD (May 2013) – Government releases 2013 Defence White Paper.

• Australia DoD (May 2013) – Future Submarine Industry Skills Plan.

• Australia DoD (July 2012 – Dec 2012) – Coles Review: The Study Into the Business of Sustaining Australia’s Strategic Collins Class Submarine Capability.

• DID – Australia’s 2009 Defense White Paper.

Other News & Reports

• The National Interest (Sept 18/14) – U.S. Submarines: Run Silent, Run Deep…On Diesel Engines? Suggests buying a squadron of Soryus for the USN. Tremendous obstacles, but the author is a US Naval War College professor, and co-author of a defining work analyzing the Chinese naval buildup: “Red Star Over the Pacific”.

• Naval Technology (Feb 19/14) – Sink or swim: Sweden’s new A-26 next-gen submarine in doubt.

• Wall St. Journal (March 23/14) – Dispute Threatens ThyssenKrupp’s Submarine Business.

• SvD Naringsliv (March 18/14) – Sverige tar tillbaka ubåtarna. Mentions Australia and Poland as potential collaborators on a Swedish submarine design.

• Defense News (March 2/14) – Saab Maneuvers To Buy Swedish Submarine Maker. Following a late February decision by Sweden’s FMV to give Saab a $3.87 million contract. The point? To study Saab’s ability to produce Sweden’s next-generation submarine, instead of Kockums.

• Sverige Radio (Feb 27/14) – Osäker framtid för Kockum. “Uncertain future for Kockum”.

• The Local – Germany (Nov 29/13) – Poland gives thumbs down to German subs. “…but sources have told The Local that on the back of a landmark naval deal between the two countries, Poland is likely to lease two subs anyway.” Over the longer term, could Poland become a partner?

• Polish MON (Nov 15/13) – Okrety podwodne – rozmawiajmy o faktach. Excerpt Trans.: “The Polish Navy, according to the approved Technical Modernisation Programme 2013-2022, is expected to receive three new submarines. Two will go to its facilities by 2022 – a third by 2030.”

• Sydney Morning Herald (Aug 3/12) – Time for talking on new submarine is over. Explains the program’s timing issues, and also ongoing problems with the Collins Class.

• Kokoda Foundation (January 2012) – Sub Judice: Australia’s Future Submarine [PDF, Release]. A number of observers weren’t impressed, questioning its seriousness, objectivity, and conclusions – see Jan 19/12 entry.

• RAND 2011 – Learning from Experience: Lessons from the Submarine Programs of the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia. Covers SSBN/SSGN Ohio, SSN-21 Seawolf, and SSN-774 Virginia programs in the USA, Britain’s Astute SSNs, and Australia’s Collins Class SSKs (Volume IV).

• Australian DoD (Dec 13/11) – Collins Class Sustainment Review Phase 1 Report [PDF]. Also known as the “Coles Review”. Delivered to government Nov 4/11.

• Kokoda Foundation (May 25/11) – Under the Sea Air Gap: Australia’s Anti-Submarine Warfare Challenge. “This study attempts to identify issues surrounding Australia’s Anti Submarine Warfare capabilities that will require greater scrutiny in the period leading up to the 2014 Defence White Paper.”

• ASPI (April 14/11) – “The once and future submarine – raising and sustaining Australia’s underwater capability.

• Australian Defence magazine (April 1/10) – Size Matters, by Rex Patrick. A wide-ranging and educational look at trends in submarine warfare.

• The Australian (Feb 9/11) – Nuclear or not, we’ll need prefab subs. Amidst calls for SSN nuclear-powered fast attack subs, the article looks at the shortcomings of existing diesel-electric SSKs – and of Australian submarine experiences to date.

• ASPI in Brisbane Courier (Feb 1/10) – Royal Australian Navy lumbered with sub-par hardware.

• ASPI (Oct 29/09) – Strategic Insights 48 – How to buy a submarine: Defining and building Australia’s future fleet.

• DID (May 25/09) – ADF: An “Aren’t Deployable” Force?.

• ELP Defens(c)e Blog – Defence White Paper Fantasy. About the most critical coverage of the 2009 White Paper that we found.

• Australia DoD (July 1/99) – Mcintosh-Prescott report. Covering the shortcomings and issues with Australia’s Collins Class submarine program.

• Naval Technology – Collins class submarines.

Potential Contenders

• DID – Saab Story: Sweden’s New Submarines. Began as the A26; how will it end up?

• Spanish Navy – Submarine S-80.

• DID/DII – S-80: A Sub, for Spain, to Sail Out on the Main. Technical issues remove it as an export option until they’re fixed.

• Naval Technology – SSK Scorpene. India and Malaysia will operate this in the neighborhood.

• Naval Technology – SS Soryu Class Submarines, Japan.

• Naval Technology – U212/ U214 Type Submarines.

• TKMS – Type 216. About 4,000t, much larger than all but Japan’s Soryu. A customized version will become Singapore’s U218SG.

• Defense Update (Dec 5/13) – Singapore’s Type-218SG – Forerunner of a new Submarine Class? Says the U216 is designed to be scaled up or down.

Regional Developments

• DID/DII – India’s Multi-billion Dollar Scorpene Sub Contract. Includes a snapshot of Chinese developments.

• DID – Scorpene’s Sting: Liberation Publishes Expose re: Malaysia’s Bribery & Murder Scandal.

• DID – KSS-II: South Korea Orders 6 More U-214 AIP Submarines. They can build/assemble them, and may be about to begin exporting them.

& DID – Submarines for Indonesia. South Korean built, reportedly modified Chang Bogo Class U209s.

• DID – Thailand’s New Second-Hand Submarines. Reportedly 6 of the 500t U206As – but Thailand ended up backing out.

• SLD (Jan 9/14) – From Dynamic Defense to a “Comprehensive Defense Architecture”: Japan Re-Shapes Its National Security Strategy. The changes affect Australia’s plans, and expand the windows for cooperation.

• Senang Diri (Dec 4/13) – Republic of Singapore Navy Type 218SG submarine buy caps 18-year journey in underwater warfare.

• Singapore MINDEF (Dec 2/13) – MINDEF Signs Contract to Acquire Two Submarines. The U218SGs.

• TKMS (Dec 2/13) – ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems receives major submarine order from Singapore. For its U218SG. Switches them away from traditional provider Kockums, after TKMS blocked attempts by their subsidiary to sell new submarines to Singapore.

• The Diplomat (July 16/13) – The Submarine Race in the Malaccan Strait.

Americas

• The US Navy has delivered the first fixed-wing aircraft variant of the Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System (APKWS), to be attached to AV-8B Harriers and operated by the Marine Attack Squadron (VMA). Initially integrated onto MH-60S, MH-60R, and AH-1Z helicopters, the new design just took seven months to be incorporated onto the Harrier. The new capability will quickly provide the AV-8B with a low-cost, low-collateral damage, high-precision weapon in support of combat operations.

• Sales of the Yak-130 jet trainer are expected to make their way to a number of Latin American countries according to Anatoly Punchuk, the deputy director of the Russian Federal Service of Military-Technical Cooperation. It is hoped that the combat training aircraft is selected as a number of air forces plan to renew their current fleets of flight equipment. Punchuk’s comments were made as he participated in the FIDAE-2016 arms exhibition in Chile, where foreign experts were allowed to test the aircraft for themselves.

• Embraer has announced that their KC-390 cargo aircraft is now back on schedule, after delays last year ran the risk of affecting potential customers. A direct challenge to Lockheed Martin’s Hercules, the KC-390 promises capabilities to fly higher, fuller, and faster, at a lower price than its competitor. Customers for the Brazillian airlifter include 28 contracts to deliver the KC-390 to Brazil, and 32 “letters of intention” with other countries, including South American neighbors Chile, Argentina and Portugal.

Middle East North Africa

• A request has been made by Algeria to test the Su-35 as a number of countries have expressed interest in the fighter. This adds a new dimension to the negotiations surrounding the purchase of Su-32 bombers which started last November, expected to cost between $500-600 million. After the Algerian Air Force’s testing of the Su-35, it’s expected they would purchase at least ten of the fighters, which would come with a price tag of around $900 million.

Europe

• The Bulgarian government has approved the purchase of up to 19 fighter aircraft for its air force. $1.4 billion has been allocated in an investment plan to go toward keeping its current MiG-29 planes operating while investing in new warplanes and naval patrol ships. The aircraft procurement will come in two stages with eight planes acquired between 2018-2021 with a further eight coming between 2022-2023. Meanwhile, its naval procurement plan will see the Navy acquire two multi-purpose patrol ships with a modular design to be implemented over the next five years.

• The Royal Air Force (RAF) has tested the BriteCloud decoy during a Tornado GR4 jet strike. Successful trials of the new radar-jamming anti-missile countermeasure may see the RAF become the first buyer of the system with negotiations under way between the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the British arm of manufacturer Finmeccanica. BriteCloud is a self-contained unit with a battery-powered digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) jammer, that can be ejected from fighter aircraft, in a straight swap for the existing 55mm flare, to counter the threat from the latest air-to-air and surface-to-air radio frequency guided missiles.

Asia Pacific

• Contracts have been signed between India and the US Department of Defense for the purchase of Raytheon’s FIM-29 Stinger missiles. 245 of the air-to-air munitions will be fitted on the 22 AH-64 Apache helicopters currently on order by the Indian government. The Apache purchase was part of a $2.5 billion deal which included not only Apaches, but also 15 CH-47F Chinook helicopters.

• Guidance systems initially used for air-to-air missiles may soon find themselves adapted for civilian uses according to the Mitsubishi Electric Corp. The manufacturer of the Japanese military’s missile needs have been working to use components such as millimeter-wave radars, sonars, sensors and cameras for automated cars and vehicles due to hit the road in 2020. Their experience in military guidance systems has allowed the company to catch up with competitors Continental AG, Denso Corp. and Hitachi Automotive Systems Ltd. in providing assistance technologies with components for lane-keeping and automatic braking systems due for manufacture next year.

Today’s Video

• A look at the Russia’s new T-14 main battle tank:

KC-390 refuels AMXs
(click to view full)

Global competition in the 20-ton air transport segment continues to intensify, with Brazil’s launch of its KC-390 program. Embraer figures reportedly place the global C-130 replacement market at around 700 aircraft. In response, it will develop a jet-powered rival to compete with Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, the larger Airbus A400M, Russia’s AN-12 and its Chinese copy the Yun-8/9, and the bi-national Irkut/HAL MRTA project. Smaller aircraft like the EADS-CASA C-295M, and Alenia’s C-27J, represent indirect competition.

Embraer is extending its efforts and markets by crafting a jet-powered medium transport with a cargo capacity of around 23 tons, that can be refueled in the air, and can provide refueling services to other aircraft by adding dedicated pods. The KC-390 has now become a multinational program, and may be shaping up as the C-130’s most formidable future competitor. A tie-up with Boeing underscores the seriousness of Embraer’s effort, which is now a production program…

The KC-390: Program KC-390 schedule, 2010
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Brazil’s aerospace industry has made impressive global gains in the civilian business and regional jet segments, and in the military market for primary trainer and counterinsurgency aircraft. Slumping civilian demand recently led to layoffs, but rising Brazilian defense budgets give the government a lever to inject funds into the company, while completing a strategic project that has been under consideration for a couple of years.

Overall, Embraer reportedly bases its business case on a break-even point of 120 orders, or about 1/7th of the tactical transport market outside of China, Russia, Ukraine and the USA.

The initial Brazilian contract covered R&D, and called for 3 development aircraft, with a 28 plane production order to follow. Brazil has held to that, which will allow the KC-390 to restore an existing FAB shortfall and replace the Brazilian Air Force’s 21 C-130E/H and 2 KC-130H Hercules planes. The FAB flew 10 aged DHC-5 Buffalo tactical transports for many years, but had to replace them recently with C295s from Airbus Military. The C295s are very useful for smaller cargo loads, but they have limits as tactical airlifters, so the added KC-390s will fully restore the FAB’s status quo ante.

To date, possible orders stand at 60, including Brazil’s confirmed 28, plus possible orders from Argentina (6), Chile (6), Colombia (12), the Czech Republic (2), and Portugal (6). South Africa’s cancellation of its A400M order may create another opportunity, and Brazil’s F-X-2 fighter competition may lead to even more European orders. Sweden promised to consider the KC-390 to replace its recently-upgraded C-130s with the KC-390 if the JAS-39 Gripen won, and so it will probably become Sweden’s next airlifter at some point.

Embarer’s boast that it has 32 Letters of Intent from various countries indicate that this customer list could grow quickly. Note, however, that there aren’t any formal contracts yet for these export orders. Until prospective orders turn into firm contracts, relying on any numerical commitments is premature.

Meanwhile, development continues on an aggressive schedule. The first prototypes are expected to fly by the end of 2014, with acceptance by Brazil’s air force beginning in 2016.

The aircraft design itself will belong to the Brazilian government, with Embraer as the lead technical and industrial partner. All talks to join the program will be conducted at a government-to-government level, and the process of adding “risk sharing” partners will be a top-down process that results in directives handed down to Embraer.

Note that this kind of arrangement can create program risks, and obstacles to an aggressive schedule, if the partners selected by the Brazilian government fail to perform on an industrial level. Joint Definition Phase partnerships & commitments to date include:

The KC-390: Aircraft Initial dimensions
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The C-390 was originally supposed to be a militarized ERJ-190 jet that competed in a unique niche between EADS-CASA’s C-295M and Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules, with Brazil’s postal service as its launch customer. The more the engineers worked, the more it diverged from that idea, until it assumed it present T-tailed, high-winged, hump-backed form as a full military aircraft and C-130 competitor.

Compared to a stretched C-130J-30, the renamed KC-390’s cargo compartment is now 17.75m long (vs. 16.9m) and 3.45m wide (vs 3.12m); 2.9m high forward of the wing (vs 2.74m) and 3.2m aft of the wing. The KC-390’s wings were lengthened to 35.03m during the configuration phase, in order to allow helicopter refueling at speeds around 120 kt. With the right engines, the Force Aerea Braziliera (FAB) has confirmed that each aircraft will carry up to 80 troops, or a 23.0 tonne/ 25+ ton total cargo load. That surpasses initial expectations of 19t, and places it slightly above competitors like Lockheed Martin’s C-130J (21.8t).

The airplane will incorporate a modern, night-vision compatible Pro Line Fusion avionics system, including 2 Head-Up Displays (HUD), and will use fly-by-wire technologies instead of all-mechanical control systems.

KC-390 range
(click to view full)

The most unusual feature in current mockups may be a movable pressure bulkhead that retracts into the roof and descends to seal the cargo cabin. While it shortens the cabin from 17.75m to to 12.78m when deployed, it could allow high altitude airdrops from the space behind, without depressurizing the entire cabin. In order to improve airdrop accuracy, the KC-390 will use Computed Air Release Point (CARP) technology integrated with the fly-by-wire system.

As the aircraft grew, its thrust requirement grew beyond the 27,000 pound class. Embraer eventually picked the International Aero Engines joint venture’s V2500-E5, which can supply up to 31,330 pounds of thrust. It beat GE/Safran’s CFM56-5B, which competes with IAE to power many Airbus narrowbody passenger jets.

A complete self-protection system will also be fitted, and Elbit’s AEL has been announced as the key supplier. Other firms may also become involved in supplying warning elements and decoys, to integrate with AEL’s SPS controller and DIRCM.

Contracts and Key Events 2014 – 2016

Core production contract from Brazil and significant funds released; KC-390 Rollout; 32 Letters of Intent?; Argentina finally ready to produce parts. Embraer re: KC-390

April 1/16: Embraer has announced that their KC-390 cargo aircraft is now back on schedule, after delays last year ran the risk of affecting potential customers. A direct challenge to Lockheed Martin’s Hercules, the KC-390 promises capabilities to fly higher, fuller, and faster, at a lower price than its competitor. Customers for the Brazillian airlifter include 28 contracts to deliver the KC-390 to Brazil, and 32 “letters of intention” with other countries, including South American neighbors Chile, Argentina and Portugal.

October 29/15: Embraer’s KC-390 transport aircraft has resumed flight testing following an eight-month break, forced on the program by a falling Brazilian Real and slow payments to the company by the Brazilian Defense Ministry. The aircraft’s schedule has been pushed back, with the company signing an agreement in late July to extend the KC-390’s entry into service from late 2016 to 2018.

Aug 3/15: Brazilian flagship firm Embraer has been hit heavily by a falling real and defense sector cuts, downsizing its 2015 revenue forecast by $300 million. The delivery of first KC-390 transport aircraft to the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) has been pushed back by eighteen months, to the first half of 2018. Certification is now scheduled for the latter half of 2017, with the tactical transport/tanker registering its first test flight in February.

Oct 21/14: Rollout. Embraer rolls out the 1st of 2 KC-390 testing prototypes during a ceremony at its Gaviao Peixoto plant. The event was attended by the Brazilian Minister of Defense, the Commander of the Brazilian Air Force,, and delegations and representatives from more than 30 countries. Looks like the statements about widespread Letters of Intent (q.v. May 21/14) were on the money, though even this turnout is just 30 of the claimed 32.

Next steps: initial systems evaluations before the 1st engine run, then ground vibration tests and the other planned ground tests en route to 1st flight. Sources: Embraer, “Embraer rolls out KC-390 military airlift”.

Rollout

Oct 1/14: Brazil’s COPAC has approved $1.926 billion for Embraer to buy materials and begin production of 28 KC-390s (q.v. May 21/14, part of a BRL 7.2B / $3.26B deal), with funds released according to the physical and financial schedule of the contract, effective until 2026. COPAC chair Air Brigadier Jose Augusto Crepaldi Affonso says there will be enough resources over time to produce the batch of 28 aircraft plus ground support equipment, initial logistics and pilot and mechanic training. On the other hand, he also says that some potential shortfalls are being worked out:

“Quanto aos valores que estavam contingenciados (cerca de R$ 500 milhoes segundo o Valor apurou), o brigadeiro da Copac disse que todo o orcamento previsto para 2014 foi liberado, mas que ainda ha carencias de recursos. Ele ressaltou, no entanto, que o projeto continua com andamento normal, buscando as solucoes necessarias em coordenacao com os orgaos do governo.”

Sources: Brazilian Government, “Extrato De Inexigibilidade De Licitacao Nº 1/2014 Nº Processo: 67701.003019/2014-95.” | defesanet, “KC-390 – Recebera U$ 1,9 Bi”.

Oct 4/14: Argentina. It took a lot of work and investment, but Fabrica Argentina de Aviones, which was forcibly nationalized in 2009, has finally made good on the 2011 MoU and opened a production line for KC-390 parts. They’ll make wing spoilers, flap fairings, nose landing gear doors, a tail cone, and the ramp door. Their journey shows why partner readiness cannot just be assumed in extended supply chains.

The former Lockheed Martin facility had a lot of work to do after 2011, but the 10-year agreement led the state to allocate over $35 million dollars to upgrade the Cordoba factory, which has added 180 direct jobs. It has tripled its capacity in composite materials, added advanced machining centers, and brought in equipment for forming, processing and heat treating primary aluminum parts. That was accompanied by about 80,000 hours of training and AS9100 certification, which triggered improvements to production processes and non-destructive testing. Sources: defesanet, “KC-390 – FAdeA Inaugura Linha de Producao de Componentes”.

Aug 18/14: Embraer personnel from the KC-390’s interior outfitting, test, and training groups have been participating in Brazilian operations, from the recent Campo Grande exercise to C-130 operations in Antarctica. Some design changes have dropped out of the Antarctic operations in particular, which the Swedes will certainly appreciate once they become customers. The FAB release also implied that interior placement of wiring and outlets had changed, in order to accommodate medical equipment.

Continued refinement is commendable, but shouldn’t these efforts and changes take place before design finalization (q.v. March 11-22/13)? Sources: Brazil FAB, “Embraer participa de exercicio da FAB para aperfeicoar nova aeronave”.

May 21/14: Brazil. Embraer signs the core BRL 7.2 billion ($3.263 billion) KC-390 series production contract for 28 planes, plus spare parts and maintenance. They also hold the opening ceremony for the 30 million square meter KC-390 production line, with President Dilma Rousseff in attendance.

The KC-390 program directly employs about 1,500 workers, which will expand with more orders. Embraer Defense & Security President Jackson Schneider adds that they have 32 Letters of Intent signed with other countries, which goes far beyond announced candidates. The challenge now involves converting some of them into orders, and the opening of the production line starts that clock running in earnest.

Embraer will formally enter Brazil’s contract on its books within 90 days, when the complementary documentation goes into effect. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2016. Sources: Ministerio da Defensa, “Com presenca da presidenta da Republica, FAB assina contrato de compra do aviao brasileiro KC-390” | Embraer, “Embraer opens final assembly hangar for the KC-390, in Gaviao Peixoto, SP, Brazil” | Brazil Poder Aero, “Com Dilma, Embraer inaugura ‘linha de montagem’ do KC-390”.

Brazil orders 28

May 20/14: Engines. International Aero Engines AG announces that they’ve shipped all 6 prototype V2500-E5 powerplants for Embraer’s new KC-390, which are rated for 31,330 pounds of thrust. They’ll be used in KC-390 flight tests, set to begin in 2014, and civil certification for the E5 engine is expected in Q3 2014.

The engines are assembled at UTC Pratt & Whitney’s Engine Center in Middletown, CT, then shipped to UTC Aerospace Systems – Aerostructures in Foley, AL to install the nacelles, thrust reversers and engine build-up equipment. The first 3 were delivered to Embraer ahead of schedule earlier in 2014, and the remaining 3 instrumented powerplants were shipped earlier in May 2014. Sources: IAE, “V2500-E5 Engines Shipped to Embraer”.

2013

Agreement with Boeing; CDR; Embraer & forecasters on the addressable market; Opportunity in Sweden, just not immediately; KC-390 officially ready for sale. KC-390 concept
(click to view full)

Nov 19/13: Sub-contractors. BAE Systems announces that they’ve finalized an industrial cooperation contract with the Brazilian Air Force, as part of an agreement to provide the flight control system and active side sticks for Embraer’s KC-390. BAE General Manager of Commercial Aircraft Solutions and Dr. Ehtisham Siddiqui says that it involves “…software development training and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for the KC-390 flight control system that will be performed in Brazil. BAE Systems has also proposed performing some final assembly work for its KC-390 products in the country.” Sources: BAE, “Brazilian Air Force Receives More Than Just Flight Controls for KC-390”.

Dec 18/13: Sweden. A somewhat unexpected announcement by the Ministerio da Defesa confirms that Brazil has picked Saab’s Gripen-NG as their preferred bidder, and expects to buy 36 planes for $4.5 billion. That’s currently just an estimate, as negotiations need to sort themselves out, including financing and industrial offset arrangements. A final contract and financial arrangements are expected in December 2014, and deliveries are expected to begin 4 years later.

Sweden is now almost certain to fly the KC-390 after its 8-plane C-130H2 Hercules fleet retires (q.v. Oct 4/09), but in-depth upgrades performed from 2006 – 2009 mean that they won’t be needing new transports any time within the next few years. One obvious alternative involves replacing existing Swedish Saab 105/ SK60 trainers with the Super Tucano. That needs to happen around 2017, and Saab’s recent tie-up with Boeing to produce a supersonic jet trainer for the USAF’s T-X doesn’t change that. The SK60 jet is used in a basic-intermediate trainer role, and the Flygvapnet’s 18 serving JAS-39D Gripens won’t be upgraded to Gripen NG status. That would give them the option to use Gripen-Ds for use as lead-in fighter trainers to the JAS-39E, while still needing to replace the SK60s.

The coming year of Gripen NG negotiations will involve the Swedish government, and the agreement’s provisions could tip the scales on Swedish acquisition plans as well. Read “F-X2: Brazil Picks Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen-NG over Rafale, Super Hornet” for full coverage.

Aug 22/13: Turkey. Turkey and Brazil are forming a number of working groups on defense cooperation. Their release specifically mentions that the aeronautics working group will be studying the assembly of Turkish helicopters in Brazil. The T129 is the only candidate that fits. Note that Brazil already fields a handful of Russian Mi-35M attack helicopters, with a limited secondary capability as transports. On the other hand, they could definitely use more armed helicopters, and local production appeals to them.

The flip side is that Turkey would be studying the assembly of Brazilian aircraft in Turkey. Embraer offers the Super Tucano, a number of military aircraft based on their ERJ 145 regional jetliner, and the KC-390 medium transport. Turkey is committed to buy 10 A400M medium transports, but they have 32 C160 and C-130 medium transports to replace, so a future KC-390 buy is possible. Other possibilities are more restricted, as Turkey already has projects or orders in those categories: KAI’s KT-1 for training, Boeing’s E-737 AWACS for aerial surveillance, and Airbus ATR-72s and CN-235s for maritime patrol. Sources: Brazil MdD [in Portuguese].

June 18/13: Boeing agreement. Embraer and Boeing sign an agreement to market the KC-390 in limited international venues, building on the June 26/12 MoU. Boeing will be the lead for KC-390 sales, sustainment and training opportunities in the USA, UK and “select Middle East markets.”

The UK has committed its defense airlift budgets to a combination of C-130Js, A400Ms, and C-17s, so their inclusion doesn’t mean much. The USA is also an unlikely customer, as Lockheed Martin has a hard lock on the medium tactical airlifter segment. Absent some angle on civil sales, US SOCOM is about the only (remote) possibility. The Middle East offers a more promising market, with interest already expressed by Boeing’s C-17 customer in the UAE, but it will depend on which countries are within the agreement’s scope.

The biggest effect will probably be felt elsewhere, as one more positive factor in Boeing’s competition to supply its F/A-18E/F Super Hornets as Brazil’s new F-X-2 fighter. Boeing | Embraer.

May 29/13: Sub-contractors. Curtiss-Wright Controls, Inc. announces a new 5-year agreement from Embraer to harmonize flight test data-gathering equipment and database structures across the firm. The KC-390 is the 1st platform, using an Acra KAM-500 system with 46 chassis and 14 network switches.

This initial contract is $4 million, within an overall agreement whose lifetime value could rise to $30 million. Shipments of data acquisition units began in Q4 2012, and will continue in line with Embraer’s flight test programs.

April 9-13/13: For Sale. Embraer Defense & Security uses the LAAD 2013 expo to officially announce that the KC-390 is finalized and available for sale on the global market, with a 23-ton capacity and a maximum cruising speed of 465 knots (860 km/h). Engineering drawings are being released to suppliers, and Embraer maintains its promise to hold its 1st flight by the end of 2014.

Hopes of landing the plane’s 1st sale at LAAD were dashed. Embraer | Flight International.

April 3/13: KC-390’s origins. Defense News interviews Embraer CEO Luis Aguilar, which provides an interesting insight into the plane’s origins:

“When we thought about this airplane, it was the first time we looked at the international market also, not just the Brazilian requirements…. We looked at the market and then came back to the Brazilian Air Force to talk with them about what they think about their cargo airplanes for the future. They said they were probably going to replace with more C-130s, and we started talking and showed them we were able to develop something in a very feasible way. It took two years working together to launch and sign the contract. It was a much more sophisticated process. We are on schedule, and I think we have a great chance to sell abroad.”

April 2/13: Forecasts. Flight International takes a closer look at Embraer’s evolution, from its 2012 dependence on major aviation projects for 75% of its defense revenue, to a projected figure of just 58% by 2020. Domestic security and surveillance offerings are expected to grow in relative importance over that time, thanks to experience and products developed under Brazil’s $400 million SISFRON project, its 50/10/40 Haripa UAV partnership with Avibras and Elbit Systems, etc.

There are rumors that the LAAD 2013 expo will see Brazil announce the initial production order for 28 planes, but the larger question is how many orders Embraer can expect over the longer term. Rebecca Edwards of Forecast International says Embraer hopes to convert all of their MoUs into 60 firm orders by the end of 2013, and sees potential for production of 98 KC-390s by 2021, and up to 234 by 2027. The Teal Goup, on the other hand, sees most of the KC-390’s target market locked up in the USA, and only 25 planes built by 2021. Given a break-even production run of 120, Embraer has to hope that FI’s prediction is closer to their 2021 reality. For Teal, the key to the KC-390’s success is a price point in the $50 million range, but that won’t be easy:

“One factor which could drive up prices is that the Brazilian government has mandated the use of as many local suppliers as possible, depriving programme managers of the ability to choose the best components at the lowest possible cost, [Teal’s] Aboulafia says. Local subsystems tend to cost more than their international counterparts because of economies of scale and development costs. “It’s not a killer, it’s just something that hobbles designers, especially when they’re trying to keep costs down,” he says.”

Teal sees the KC-390 as more of a straight cargo plane than the C-130, with higher load capacity, modern features like fly-by-wire, and a faster cruising speed. The C-130’s use of turboprops is better for avoiding foreign object damage from unimproved landing strips and for low altitude operation, which makes them better suited to roles like special forces support. Flight International.

March 11-22/13: CDR. The Brazilian Air Force (FAB) and Embraer Defense & Security successfully conduct the KC-390’s Critical Design Review (CDR) at Embraer’s facilities in Sao Jose dos Campos.

The aerodynamic and structural configurations are now set, along with the architecture and systems installations. The next step is to begin building the prototypes. Embraer.

CDR

Feb 1/03: Forecasts. Aviation Week talks to Embraer about its schedule and forecasts. The firm forecasts a total market for 700 medium tactical transport aircraft over 10 years, worth more than $50 billion. The grounds for this number is that there are currently more than 2,000 older airlifters, mainly Lockheed Martin C-130s and Russian Antonovs, that will need replacing within 10 years. Which is true, but many are in countries like the USA. The KC-390 is competing well elsewhere, however, and it seems that summer 2013 will begin the big push for contracts:

“The [Critical Design Review] is to be completed by this quarter. “[By June] we will be ready to go to market with terms and conditions and a final configuration,” says [Embraer DS CEO] Luiz Carlos Aguilar…. following the April 2012 signing of a memorandum of understanding with Boeing…. “We will partner with them in some specific countries,” he says. “We are still discussing that, and will announce a commercial agreement in a few months.” Meanwhile, a “sharing process” is under way with Boeing engineers visiting Embraer, and vice versa.”

2012

Limited Boeing partnership; Sub-contractors picked; Possibilities in Canada & Indonesia? KC-390 concept
(click to view full)

Nov 15/12: Canada? The Ottawa Citizen’s David Pugliese writes:

“The recent industry day on the Canadian Forces fixed wing search and rescue (FWSAR) project brought a new player into the mix. Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embaer was invited to attend.”

The KC-390’s faster cruising speed would give it advantages in a SAR/special forces role, and Embraer might be tempted to offer Canada a deal, in order to secure a high-end market endorsement. The bad news for Embraer is that they’re seen as a major competitor by Canadian aerospace firms, and especially by Bombardier. FWSAR’s rear ramp requirement caused Bombardier to bow out of the recent Industry Day. The political optics of shutting out Quebec’s flagship firm Bombardier, while giving the contract to their biggest competitor, make a KC-390 victory almost impossible to imagine.

Sept 26/12: Sub-contractors. Embraer picks 2 Brazilian companies to provide KC-390 components. Aerotron in Itajuba, Minas Gerais, will provide ballistics protection for the entire aircraft. LH Colus, from Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, will provide seats and stretchers. Embraer.

Aug 13/12: Indonesia. Aviation Week reports that Indonesia is considering the KC-390. They’re already a customer for Embraer’s armed EMB-314 Super Tucano turboprop, but at the same time, earlier C-130 Hercules versions already serve with Indonesia’s TNU-AI. With respect to Indonesia’s choices:

“Asked if the Brazilians have been pitching the KC-390 to Indonesia, [Air Marshal Eris Herryanto] replied: “Yes. Prior to meeting you, we were shown a mockup today [Aug. 7] of the KC-390.” He says Indonesia needs a lot of military transports and wants to strengthen its capability to carry out disaster-relief operations.”

The other option for Indonesia, given its vast spaces, is to solve its issues with a larger number of smaller transports, like the Airbus Military CN-235s and C295s that IAe already manufactures. Indeed, industrial considerations are likely to play a significant role in any Indonesian buy, for reasons that go beyond the country’s procurement culture of corruption and bribes. A bill is being introduced to standardize required defense industrial offsets for equipment bought abroad, and it’s likely to raise the bar when it passes. Indonesia didn’t get its desired co-production deal from Embraer for the EMB-314 turboprops, but the KC-390 is also a different opportunity case. Within the Southeast Asia region, Australia (C-130J), India (C-130J, Irkut MTA), and (Malaysia A400M) are already committed to other medium transports. Bangladesh can’t afford much more than modernization of its aged C-130Es, and Myanmar doesn’t offer much potential. That leaves Vietnam, whose Russian and Indian relationships make a future MTA buy more likely, or C-130 customer Pakistan. This constellation means that some sort of regional sales arrangement for the KC-390 would be much more of a low-risk, good payoff venture for Embraer, as opposed to the medium risk, low to negative payoff option represented by Embraer/IAe co-production and marketing.

June 26/12: Boeing steps in. Boeing and Embraer announce an agreement to share some specific technical knowledge regarding the KC-390, and to evaluate markets where they may join their sales efforts for medium-lift military transports. It’s part of a broader agreement signed in April 2012, and its immediate significance is limited. On the other hand, it has the potential to turn Boeing into a medium transport rival to C-130 maker Lockheed Martin, while extending Embraer’s marketing reach to match Lockheed Martin and Airbus. Embraer Defense & Security CEO Luiz Carlos Aguiar:

“Boeing has extensive experience in military transport and air refueling aircraft, as well as deep knowledge of potential markets for the KC-390, especially those which were not considered in our original marketing plan.”

That’s the sort of thing that could change the KC-390’s global prospects, but it’s still too early to tell. Boeing | Embraer.

May 8/12: Sub-contractors. Thales announces a contract by Embraer Defence and Security to provide their civil-certified High Performance Inertial Reference System (HPIRS) as the KC-390’s Inertial Navigation System/ GPS navigation system.

May 7/12: Sub-contractors. United Technologies’ Goodrich Corp. is picked to provide more KC-390 components. Their SmartProbe air data system eliminates pneumatic lines, ice detectors, and they’ll also be supplying windshield ice protection controllers, and fuel gauges that include built-in-test capabilities. Initial hardware deliveries from Goodrich’s Sensors and Integrated Systems teams in Minnesota and Vermont are expected to begin in 2013. Goodrich.

April 18/12: Sub-contractors. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. announces that Embraer is continuing their decades-long partnership by equipping the KC-390 with Goodyear military aviation tires.

Jan 19/12: Sub-contractors. Embraer adds the KC-390’s Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) to Hamilton Sundstrand’s responsibilities.

APUs are small gas turbine engines that provide electric power, instead of propulsion. They’re used most often on the ground, providing electricity, compressed air, and/or shaft power for main engine start, air conditioning, electric power and other aircraft systems. They can also provide backup electric power during in-flight operation. The KC-390’s APU is derived from a commercial unit, adapted to military specifications. Hamilton Sundstrand.

Jan 18/12: Sub-contractors. Embraer picks Safran Group subsidiary Sagem DS to supply the KC-390’s Horizontal Stabilizer Trim System. It uses electric actuators, instead of hydraulic systems. Development work will be carried out at Sagem’s R&D center in Massy, near Paris. Sagem DS.

2011

Sub-contractors picked; Civil C-390 confirmed; Portuguese subsidies; Design changes. KC-390 concept
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Dec 14/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer picks United Technologies Corp. subsidiary Hamilton Sundstrand in Windsor Locks, CT to supply the KC-390’s Electric Power Generating System. The system will be based on the firm’s 90 kVA integrated drive generator, which is currently used in a variety of military and commercial applications. Hamilton Sundstrand.

Dec 14/11: Sub-contractors. Portugal takes another step. Embraer Defense and Security signs a partnership contract with OGMA Industria Aeronautica de Portugal and Empresa de Engenharia Aeronautica, for the KC-390 program. Reports indicate that EEA and the Centre for Excellence and Innovation in the Automotive Industry (CEIIA) will do engineering work for 3 unspecified segments of the jet. The segments designed and tested in Portugal will then be manufactured by OGMA, along with a central fuselage section.

The industrial contract follows Portugal’s Sept 10/10 Declaration of Intent to replace its 6 C-130H/C-130H-30 transports with 6 KC-390s. That purchase contract is the next step. Note that state-owned OGMA was privatized in 2003, and its ownership structure is now 45.5% Embraer, 19.5% EADS, and 35% government. Embraer | Macau Hub | Portugal Daily View | See also Flight International follow-up | Flight International on 2003’s A400M backout.

Nov 10/11: Portugal. Diario da Republica announces that Embraer is expected to receive up to EUR 87 million from Portugal’s National Strategic Benchmark Framework (QREN), or other public funding sources, in order to establish the necessary industrial infrastructure for KC-390 work. Macau Hub.

Oct 25/11: Sub-contractors. Elbit Systems wins an initial order worth $25 million. They’ll supply the KC-390’s pilot Head-Up Display, the Self-protection suite to coordinate warning systems and decoy/jammer defenses, and the DIRCM jammer for use against infrared guided missiles. All equipment will be provided through their Brazilian subsidiary, AEL, which also supplies the KC-390’s mission computer. Elbit Systems | Embraer.

Oct 19/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer and the Brazilian Air Force hold a workshop, to encourage more Brazilian companies to bid as suppliers of KC-390 parts, components, systems and services. The Nationalization Index of the aircraft, as calculated according to the criteria of the Brazilian Economic and Social Development Bank (BNDES), is currently estimated at 60%.

Embraer notes that the NI can’t realistically rise above 70%, since there is no Brazilian manufacturer for the engines. It’s also realistic to expect downward pressure on that Brazilian “nationalization” from foreign workshare, which will be required as part of export efforts. At the same time, the KC-390 is part of an industrial strategy for Brazil, whose government will want to see a wider group of Brazilian firms involved. Around 80 Brazilian companies participated in the workshop. Embraer.

Sept 29/11: Sub-contractors. Safran Group’s Hispano-Suiza gets the award to supply the KC-390’s Emergency Electric Power Generator System (EEPGS). The EEPGS deploys in dire emergency situations, and uses the guaranteed existence of airflow to create power and keep key on-board systems running. It includes a Ram Air Turbine (RAT), RAT electric generator and generator control unit, and a deployment/ restow mechanism.

Sept 8/11: Sub-contractors. Cobham is picked to put the ‘K’ in “KC-390,” and supply its wing-mounted Aerial Refuelling Pods. That’s followed by an order with an initial contract value over of US$60 million. Cobham is a leading global supplier of such systems, which equip Airbus’ A330 MRTT, as well as the new Boeing KC-46A. Embraer | Cobham plc [PDF]

Sept 8/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer Defense and Security picks Italy’s SELEX Galileo to supply their T-20 Gabbiano Tactical Radar.

The T-20’s solid state amplifier technology is designed for better Mean Time Between Failures, reduced energy consumption, and smaller size relative to previous generation technologies. What’s even more important to Brazil is the fact that it’s usually carried on UAVs and surveillance aircraft, and can perform basic land and sea surveillance, in addition to navigation functions. Embraer | SELEX Galileo [PDF] | Gabbiano Family product sheet [PDF].

Sept 8/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer picks Elbit’s Brazilian subsidiary AEL Sietemas to supply the KC-390’s mission computer. AEL has worked with Embraer to supply mission computers and full avionics systems for most Brazilian combat aircraft, and losing the KC-390’s avionics suite competition to Rockwell Collins was a disappointment. This award gets them back into the program. AEL [in Portuguese]

July 26/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer Defense and Security chooses BAE Systems to provide some flight control electronics hardware, embedded software, system design and integration support. BAE has a history of producing fly-by-wire systems, and the firm will supply flight control computers and actuator control electronics for the KC-390. The system will be developed in Rochester, United Kingdom; and Johnson City, New York, USA. Embraer.

July 26/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer chooses Goodrich Corp. to provide the electro-hydrostatic actuators (EHA), electro-backup hydrostatic actuators (EBHA), actuator electronics, and electrical controls for the KC-390’s primary flight control system. Goodrich will develop and deliver the system through the joint efforts of its businesses Actuation Systems and Engine Control & Electrical Power Systems, as well as the Goodrich Electronic Systems Center. Embraer.

July 25/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer chooses International Aero Engines AG’s V2500-5 engine for the KC-390. Engineering work on this military variant of their V2500 engine has already started at IAE’s shareholder companies, and 1st deliveries of powerplants for prototype aircraft are scheduled to begin in 2013, with flight tests to start in 2014. Production engines are anticipated for 2015, with entry into service projected for later that year. Deliveries are anticipated to last at least through 2030. Embraer | IAE.

June 22/11: Civil C-390. Embraer confirms plans to launch a stretched C-390 for the civil cargo market, adding a section ahead of the wing for a cargo door, and a section behind for balance and space. If launched, it will compete with offerings like civil Hercules aircraft, cargo conversions of passenger narrowbody planes like the 737, a possible commercial version of Kawasaki’s similar C-2, etc.

This is not an unexpected move, vid. the Feb 18/09 entry, and also the need for 120 orders to break even (q.v. April 5/11 entry). On the other hand, crossovers in this area are less common than you’d think, because the key traits of military and civil cargo planes don’t quite line up. Civil operators want low-cost operation, and generally transport predictable palletized loads. Military operators want performance for operations like fast ingress/egress, short runways, and loads that place a lot of weight on smaller sections of the plane. That often leads to higher-cost tradeoffs like more powerful engines that consume more fuel, highly strengthened floors that add more weight, and airframes optimized for lift rather than super-efficient cruise. The steady progression of the KC-390 design away from a standard Embraer ERJ 190 airframe is a classic example of those tradeoffs at work.

Embraer officials are nonetheless predicting 200-250 C-390 orders, from the plane’s projected launch in 2018 to 2030 or so. If they can sell even half that number, the military program will become more competitive as costs and prices drop, and Embraer will do extremely well financially. They do have a slight advantage in that their original intended C-390 customer, Brazil’s postal service, is almost certain to be their launch customer. Beyond that, their target market is likely to be with operators serving sectors like resource industries, who can use them to haul medium loads into remote locations. See Flight International.

Note that by the mid-2020s, their most significant competitor may not be an airplane at all.

June 21/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer Defense and Security announces that Esterline Control Systems in Sylmar, CA, USA will supply the KC-390’s autothrottle system. Modern aircraft have a significant computer control element. The autothrottle system’s 2 throttles and integrated controls calculate and transmit thrust demands from aircrew controls or autopilot functions, to the Full Authority Digital Engine Control (FADEC) electronics running the engines. Embraer.

June 16/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer Defense and Security announces that Liebherr-Aerospace Toulouse SAS in Toulouse, France will provide the KC-390’s environmental and cabin pressure control systems. The firm has a long-standing civil relationship with Embraer in this area, and the KC-390’s system will feature an integrated control architecture along with the pneumatic and mechanical components. Embraer.

May 5/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer picks Rockwell Collins’ Pro Line Fusion avionics system for the KC-390 cockpit, which will feed into 5 high-resolution 15″ LCD displays. It will include:

– An Integrated Flight Information Systems (IFIS) with electronic charts and enhanced maps;
– Advanced Flight Management Systems (FMS) with Wide Area Augmentation System that supports Localizer Performance with Vertical guidance approaches; (WAAS/LPV) and Required Navigation Performance (RNP) capabilities
– Advanced graphical flight planning capability; and
– An Information Management System (IMS) to manage databases and facilitate wireless interaction with ground systems.

Rockwell’s system already complies with the most recent CNS/ATM requirements for flight in international civilian airspace, and the Pro Line fusion cockpit will give KC-390s commonality with the systems on some of Embraer’s Legacy business jets. Because it’s a commercial system, it also sidesteps any American ITAR legal restrictions on future aircraft sales. The loser is IAI/EAE, whose proposal (vid. Jan 5/11 entry) failed to win. Embraer | Rockwell Collins | Flight International.

April 13/11: Sub-contractors. At the LAAD Defense and Security conference in Rio de Janeiro, Embraer Defense and Security signs contracts with the Czech Republic’s Aero Vodochody and Fabrica Argentina de Aviones to join the KC-390’s Joint Definition Phase, and produce parts for the program. Their acceptance is another step toward the commitments each government has made to buy the production aircraft.

Aero Vodochody will supply the rear fuselage II section, crew and parachutist doors, emergency door and hatches, cargo ramp and fixed leading edge for the prototypes, and for the future serial production aircraft. Embraer.

FAdeA will manufacture the spoilers (plates on the top surface of a wing for controlling wing lift), doors for the nose landing gear, ramp door, flap fairings, tail cone, and electronic cabinet. Embraer.

Embraer adds that “The program is running on schedule. Production of the first prototype is expected to start in 2013, followed by the first flight in 2014.”

April 6/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer publicly designates its subsidiary ELEB Equipamentos Ltda. of in São José dos Campo, Brazil to develop and produce the KC-390’s landing gear.

April 5/11: Break-even = 120. A Flight International report places the KC-390’s break-even point at 120 aircraft sold, about double the current commitments if all parties follow through.

That’s about 17.1% of the expected available tactical airlifter market, which Embraer reportedly places at of 700 or so replacement aircraft outside of China, Russia, and the USA. On its face, that seems a somewhat challenging but achievable total, given that other key buyers like India (MRTA with Russia) are also no-go markets. Contemplation of how many customers that entails at various purchase numbers, however, makes one wonder if their 700 aircraft figure has become too optimistic. A long future of austerity budgets due to the welfare state’s fiscal explosions may restrict remaining sales opportunities in “advanced” markets, to the point that even an expected uptick in rising regions like Asia and parts of Africa can’t compensate. Even a smaller overall market wouldn’t make Embraer’s success impossible, but it would change the relative ratio of required wins against powerful competitors.

Break-Even = 120

March 22/11: Sub-contractors. Finmeccanica subsidiary DRS Training & Control Systems in Fort Walton Beach, FL gets an undisclosed contract from Embraer S.A. to design, develop, test, produce, and support the KC-390 Cargo Handling and Aerial Delivery System (CHS/ADS).

The KC-390 CHS/ADS is one of the 5 major aircraft subsystems, used for loading both palletized cargo and rolling stock onboard, and for rolling out cargo on paradrops. CHS/ADS includes an electrical pallet locking system, an electronic load master control subsystem with DO178 level A software certification, retractable guide-rails, invertible cargo rollers, tie-down devices, and other floor panel components. DRS Technologies.

Feb 25/11: Sub-contractors. Embraer has frozen the configuration of its KC-390 tanker/transport, and plans to begin the joint definition phase in May 2011, once final decisions are made on major sub-contractors. Aviation Week describes a full scale mockup at Embraer’s plant in Sao Jose do Campos.

Recent KC-390 changes include longer wings (now 35.06 m), to enable slower 120 kt flight for helicopter refueling with the hose-and-drogue pods. Some customers are reportedly interested in a refueling boom as well, and Embraer is looking into this but doesn’t have a design it likes yet. The most unusual feature may be a movable pressure bulkhead that retracts into the roof and descends to seal the cargo cabin. While it shortens the cabin to 12.78m, it would allow high altitude airdrops from the space behind, without depressurizing the entire cabin.

Jan 5/11: Flight International reports that IAI and Synergy’s EAE joint venture is offering cockpit avionics and aircraft self-protection systems for the KC-390, under a 2009 cooperation pact.

IAI already has a presence in Brazil, supplying radars and maintenance services, and rumors of electronic intelligence or airborne early warning system KC-390 variants would play to IAI strengths. It’s worth remembering, however that both Embraer (ERJ-145 based R-99A) and IAI (Gulfstream G550 based CAEW) already have established AWACS offerings based on efficient, long endurance business jets. This makes the business case for an E-390 AWACS offering problematic for both parties.

2010

Letters of Intent from Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Portugal; UAE may be interested; Infrastructure in Portugal. Looking beyond.

Nov 23/10: Portugal. Embraer begins the 1st phase of its new EUR 48 million, 330,000-square-foot (30,660-square-meter) facility in Evora, Portugal, dedicated to manufacturing complex airframe structures and components in composite materials. Construction is expected to be complete by the end of 2011, though production phase wouldn’t start until 2013. A 2nd phase will focus on metallic airframe structures.

Evora lies in the Alentejo region, 130 km east of Lisbon. Recently, the city developed an aerospace sector by creating a 9.4 million-square-foot (873,290-square-meter) aerospace industrial park, located near the municipal airfield. Embraer was the first investor. Ramos Catarino S.A. in Febres, Portugal is handling the excavation work, foundations and infrastructures. Construction was spurred by a wider strategy, but If Portugal goes ahead with a KC-390 buy, these facilities will already be in place for industrial offset work, and their construction costs may also count. Embraer.

Oct 29/10: Argentina intent. Embraer announces that:

“As a result of the conversations held between the Brazilian and the Argentine Defense Ministries, the ministers Nelson Jobim and Nilda Garre signed, this week, a Declaration of Intent regarding the South American neighbor’s participation in the development program of the KC-390 military transport jet. The agreement marks the beginning of negotiations for the involvement of Fábrica Argentina de Aviões “Brig. San Martín” S.A. – FAdeA in the manufacture of the new airplane, as well as the future acquisition of six KC-390 aircraft by the Argentine government.”

FAdeA was Lockheed Martin Aircraft Argentina during its privatized period, but is now state-owned again. The firm has collaborated with Embraer on a twin-prop regional airliner (the canceled CBA 123) and refurbished C-130s, but it also has a long history of aircraft development. Its best-known product is probably the IA-58 Pucara counter-insurgency aircraft, and they are currently developing an IA-73 basic jet trainer to go with their IA-63 Pampa advanced jet trainer. Flight International.

Argentina intent: 6

Sept 21/10: UAE. Reports indicate that Brazil and the UAE are negotiating an an umbrella agreement for military cooperation, with sales of Super Tucano trainer/light attack turboprops and KC-390 transports as key building blocks. Brazilian defense minister Nelson Jobim told reporters that Brazil would present the UAE with a draft agreement within 2 weeks, and hopes the deal could be signed within 2 months of a mutual draft.

The UAE would be a very significant customer. It has modernized its transport capabilities with a major C-17 buy, but negotiations to complement its 6 C-17As with 12 C-130J-30 Super Hercules planes have been bogged down for 18 months. A switch to the KC-390, and participation in its development, would attract considerable notice in global military circles, and offer a bridge to further middle eastern sales. Abu Dhabi’s The National.

Sept 13/10: Sub-contractors. The Brazilian and Czech Ministries of Defence sign an agreement for Aero Vodochody a.s. to cooperate with Embraer in developing and building the KC-390. The firm has considerable experience in aerostructure manufacturing, and the Czech defense ministry believes they could end up manufacturing the KC-390’s rear fuselage, doors, and wing leading edges

Specific terms are expected to be signed by the end of 2010, and the Czech Republic is reportedly looking to buy up to 2 KC-390s as a complement to their C-295M fleet. Aero Vodochody | Aviation Week | Flight International.

Czechs join – up to 2?

Sept 10/10: Portugal intent. Portuguese defense minister Augusto Santos Silva, signs a Declaration of Intent to join the KC-390 development program, and begin negotiations to finalize the terms and buy up to 6 planes.

The 6 KC-390s would replace the current fleet of 6 PoAF C-130H/C-130H-30 Hercules turboprops. Embraer | Reuters | In Portuguese: Portugal’s MDP | EFE | O Globo.

Portugal intent: up to 6

Sept 1/10: Colombia intent. Colombian defense minister Rodrigo Rivera announces that the country is negotiating to join the KC-390 partnership, and have signed a Declaration of Intent. They are reportedly interested in buying up to 12 planes to replace their existing fleet of 7 C-130B/H Hercules aircraft, and possibly other models in the FAC’s inventory. In return, they would join as industrial partners, via Colombian Aeronautics Industry Corp. The FAC is familiar with Brazilian aircraft, flying EMB 312 Tucanos, EMB 314 Super Tucanos, and a pair of EMB 110 Banderiante twin-turboprop light passenger/ transport planes.

The DoI was signed along with a broader set of agreements between Colombia and Brazil, covering economics, technology, environment and security. Marco Aurelio Garcia, a special adviser on Brazil’s international affairs, reportedly reaffirmed that the conflict with FARC’s narco-guerillas was solely Colombia’s internal issue, and Brazil would become involved only if Colombia requested it. That declaration is an obstacle to efforts by FARC and its backers in countries like Venezuela, who wish to pressure Colombia by internationalizing the conflict. Aviation Week | Defense News | defpro | Flight International | China’s Xinhua || In Spanish: La Republica | Terra Colombia | Vanguardia Liberal || DID: Colombia’s Defense Modernization

Colombia intent: up to 12

.

Aug 24/10: Chile intent. Embraer publicly announces an signed Declaration of Intention from Chile to join the KC-390 program. That allows Chile’s Empresa Nacional de Aeronautica (ENAER) to join discussions about participating in its development, and acting as a supplier to the KC-390 and other programs. Embraer’s Phenom 100/300 and Legacy 450/500 business jets have been mentioned in that context. The DoI also begins negotiations with Chile’s FACh to buy up to 6 planes.

Chile has been discussing the purchase of 3 Airbus A400Ms for over 5 years now, but had not come to any agreement. It seems likely that any KC-390 purchase would supplant that buy. ENAER has been supplying structures for Embraer’s 50-seat ERJ 145 regional jet since the 1990s, and Chile’s FACh already flies 12 of Embraer’s EMB-314 Super Tucanos. Embraer | Defense News | Mercopress. In Spanish: Diario Financiero | EFE. In Portuguese: O Globo | ANSA Latina | DCI.

Chile intent: up to 6

July 21/10: Brazil to buy 28. At the Farnborough 2010 show, Embraer and the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) announced the FAB’s intent to buy 28 KC-390s, and reveals additional details about the design.

The preliminary studies phase is done now, including wind tunnel tests, and aerodynamic, structural, and systems designs are all frozen. First flight is expected in 2014 and entry into service expected at the end of 2015. Embraer.

Brazil intent: 28

May 31/10: Brazil’s FAB offers an update, in the wake of their initial Workshop on KC-390 Offsets, held with 16 foreign firms at the Technology Park of Sao Jose dos Campos (SP), on May 25-26/10. Brazil’s Department of Aerospace Science and Technology (DCTA) organized and promoted the workshop.

Some of the KC-390’s equipment, from engines to instrumentation, will come from outside Brazil. Those firms will be required to offer industrial offsets to Brazilian firms, as the price of their participation in the project. Offsets could include production contracts for the KC-390 or other sales, or a range of activities from staff training, technology transfer, joint development of systems and supply of machine tools, etc.

The FAB adds that according to studies made by Embraer, there is a potential market of 700 aircraft in this class over the next 10 years. That may be so. Embraer will have to beat plenty of competitors, in order to secure its share of those orders. Brazil’s FAB [in Portuguese].

2007 – 2009

Development contract; Program will be international; Links to Brazil’s potential fighter buy. KC-390 sign-on
(click to view full)

Oct 4/09: F-X2 & KC-390 linked? Brazil’s FAB confirms that revised bids are in from all 3 short-listed fighter contenders, and Saab’s offer clearly has significant support from the Swedish government.

Gripen International’s revised bid offers a wide range of elements, including: Full involvement in the Gripen NG development program; Complete technology transfer and national autonomy through joint development; Independence in choice of weapons and systems integration; Production in Brazil of up to 80% Gripen NG airframes, via a full Gripen NG assembly line; and Full maintenance capability in Brazil for the Gripen NG’s F414 engine. That last offer would largely remove the threat of future American interference, and it would be interesting to see how Gripen International proposes to achieve it. Gripen International touts “significantly lower acquisition, support and operating costs” for its plane, and all this would be backed by a firm proposal for full long-term financing from the government’s Swedish Export Credit Corporation.

The additional offers are equally significant. Brazil will have the sales lead for Gripen NG in Latin America, with joint opportunities elsewhere. Saab would join the KC-390 program as a development and marketing partner, and Sweden will evaluate the KC-390 for its long term tactical air transport needs, as a future replacement for its recently-upgraded but aging C-130 Hercules aircraft. Saab also proposes to replace Sweden’s aged fleet of about 42 SK60/ Saab 105 jet trainers with Embraer’s Super Tucano, but it received a SKr 130 million ($18.8 million) deal in September 2009 to upgrade the planes’ cockpit systems, and current Swedish plans would see the SK60s continue in service until mid-2017. FAB release [in Portuguese] | Gripen International release.

Sept 5/09: France. Brazil’s Ministerio Da Defesa announces that Brazil has secured French cooperation to develop Embraer’s KC-390 medium transport. Other reports indicate that France is set to buy 10-12 of the aircraft when they’re introduced. This would give the Armee de l’Air a small fleet that would offset the risks of late A400M delivery, provide a second source of immediate relief for the ancient C-160 Transall fleet, and offer a lower-capacity option that could either be used as a transport supplement, or converted to specialty roles.

The KC-390 announcement is part of an incipient deal for France’s Rafale fighters, and French technology transfer across a broad range of projects was reportedly the critical factor in the deal. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva described the Rafale buy as “definitively consolidating a strategic partnership we started in 2005.” Brazil will now produce helicopters (EC725), submarines (nuclear-powered and diesel-electric), transport aircraft (KC-390) and possibly fighters (Rafale) in cooperation with France, under a broad strategic partnership in the defense arena. MDD announcement [Portuguese] | Agence France Presse | France24 | CS Monitor | Reuters.

June 15/09: International. Aviation Week reports that Brazil is in talks with other countries to make the KC-390 an international program. Embraer’s EVP for defense and government programs, Orlando Jose Ferreira Neto, expects that foreign partners could be added as early as the end of 2009. He adds that it will be a top-down government process, with accompanying directives handed down to Embraer.

The article adds that Embraer’s choice of its 27,000 pound thrust class engine will also be made in the next 24 months. Safran has reportedly said they will bid one of their GE partnership’s CFM engines. Pratt & Whitney and Rolls Royce are also obvious contenders.

May 1/09: South Africa. South Africa’s Engineering News reports interest among South African industry, but the country is already committed to buying 8-14 of Airbus’ larger A400M transport. Some of the skills involved in that order would definitely transfer, but a South African KC-390 order would be fiscally difficult. Excerpt:

“In February, Denel Saab Aerostructures (DSA) CEO Lana Kinley told Engineering News Online that “we are very interested in having Embraer as a customer, and in being a risk-sharing partner on the C-390″. DSA sister company Denel Dynamics is already involved in a partnership with the FAB to develop the A-Darter air-to-air missile.”

April 14/09: Development contract. At the 7th Latin America Aero and Defence (LAAD) trade fair in Rio de Janeiro, Embraer announces a contract from the Brazilian government to develop the KC-390. Figures are not disclosed, but the project’s scope is reported in other venues as around $1.4 – 1.5 billion over 7 years, with the aim of manufacturing 23 planes for Brazil, and inducting the first operational aircraft in 2015.

Embraer Defence VP Orlando Ferreira Neto tells Aviation Week that the program will help Embraer toward the goal of increasing its defense business to 20% of revenues, from 8% in 2008. As noted below, Colombia has expressed interest in a partnership. South Africa’s Engineering News reports that South Africa’s Denel Saab Aerostructures may also be interested in part

Americas

• The Pentagon’s joint program office (JPO) is expecting a slimmed down Gen-3 helmet by November for rollout in 2017. The announcement makes the Rockwell Collins design’s introduction sooner than initially expected. Earlier versions of the helmet were revised due to a potential for causing neck injury. Problems with the F-35’s ejector system had resulted in potential injuries for lightweight pilots, however fixes have been made including a switch on the Martin Baker US16E (MK16) ejection seat that delays the parachute’s opening “by milliseconds” when occupied by a lightweight pilot, plus a head support panel sewn between the parachute risers. However, a weight reduction for the third-generation helmet from 2.3kg (5.1lb) to 2.1kg (4.6lb) has also been required.

• Negotiations between Venezuela and Russia over a deal for 12 Su-30 have come to conclusion. Moscow has sent an offer for the sale, and an answer is expected shortly according to Anatoly Punchuk, deputy head of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had announced his intention to purchase the aircraft last November. The fighters will fill a multitude of roles, including anti-drug trafficking missions, particularly against those coming from neighboring Colombia.

Middle East North Africa

• A $7.5 billion deal between Qatar and France has concluded, with Qatar to purchase 24 Rafale fighters alongside MBDA missiles, and training for 36 pilots and some 100 mechanics.The deal had been initially estimated to be $6.9 billion, but extra cruise missile orders pushed up the price. The contracts were signed by French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Qatari counterpart, Sheikh Khalid Al-Attiah, on the opening day of the Doha International Maritime Defence Exhibition and Conference. Despite this, the UK’s defence minister stated that a deal with Qatar to sell them Eurofighter Typhoon warplanes was “definitely still on the table” when speaking in Doha on Tuesday.

Europe

• Russian military action in Syria seems to have been a good advertisement for the Su-34, as a number of Middle East countries have expressed interest in acquiring the fighter. The news was broken by Rosoboronexport official Sergey Goreslavsk on Tuesday at the Defexpo India-2016. As well as countries from the Middle East, potential negotiations have started with a number of countries from Latin America and Africa, although he refused to name any of the buyers. While Goreslavsk is keeping mum on who is interested, the next few weeks may bring out some of the usual suspects of regular buyers of Russian weaponry.

Africa

• A weakening Rand, and a 10% defense budget cut may see the South African Air Force retire some of its current Gripen or Hawk jet aircraft. The defense cut coupled with the decrease in currency value has come as a double blow; affecting replacement parts for military jets as they are paid in either dollars, or in the case of the British built Hawks, in pound sterling. SAAF efforts to cut down on costs have seen five Hawk jets scrapped for parts, three of which were grounded after accidents. Furthermore, of the 24 Hawks initially acquired, there are only seven qualified pilots, while of the 26 Gripens in use (half of which are in storage), there are only five qualified pilots to operate the aircraft.

Asia Pacific

• This week, it’s been all about India! Thales and BEL-Thales Systems Limited (BTSL), the joint venture between Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and Thales, have signed a partnership agreement for the joint development of the PHAROS fire control radar. The deal was finalized at this year’s Defexpo India. PHAROS is a tracking radar for gun and missile control which provides defense against small, fast moving and highly maneuverable air and surface targets.

• Vladimir Drozhzhov, deputy director of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) has told reporters flocking to Defexpo that they are awaiting a response from India on their potential purchase of the S-400 air-defense system. The contract could potentially cost $6 billion, according to local media sources, after New Delhi initially approved the purchase at the end of 2015.

• Saab and India’s Tata Power SED have

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/2016/03/29/saab-partner-tata-power-manufacture-leds-india/82379922/">joined forces to manufacture the Land Electronic Defense System (LEDS). The agreement marks the first time that the system will be produced in India, but more significantly, the first time it has been produced outside of South Africa. Before now, the system was produced by Saab’s South African subsidiary, Saab Grintek Defence, but now will have the Indian LEDS 50 units initially manufactured at Tata Power SED’s eleven-acre manufacturing facility in Bangalore.

Today’s Video

• Russian Army training in the Arctic:

Sea Giraffe 1X 3D
(click to view full)

Swedish defense giant Saab is to offer its Sea Giraffe 1X 3D, active electronically scanned array (AESA) naval radar to the US market, showcasing it at the Maritime Security East Conference in Norfolk, Virginia this week. At 650 pounds, the radar is suitable for small patrol boats, giving them the ability to detect unmanned aerial vehicles for the first time. With no forced cooling requirements, and a minimal number of line-replaceable units (LRUs), it requires little power or upkeep. All maintenance, including LRU repair, can be performed by low-level trained engineers.

Americas

• The USMC is to receive upgrades to their Amphibious Assault Vehicles (AAV) as their replacement, the Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV), will not be operational until the 2020s. 392 AAV7A1s are to receive an extensive survivability upgrade in a $194 million contract. The USMC has found that AAVs have been vulnerable to improvised explosive devices (IED) and other weapons when operating in Iraq and elsewhere. Improvements to be made include flat-sided buoyant ceramic armor panels, new shock-mitigation seats, replacing benches in older AAVs, and a new transmission, increasing the vehicle’s top speed.

• Raytheon has been awarded a $573 million contract for the production and supply for Lot 30 of the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air to Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and other AMRAAM system items to the USAF. Work is expected to be completed by February 28, 2019. The USAF contract follows the $95 million Foreign Military Sale of the missile to Indonesia earlier this month, and marks continued sales of the advanced missile for Raytheon. Since December 2014 the Air Force has placed AMRAAM missile orders with Raytheon worth more than $1.5 billion.

• A new weapons kit system for Black Hawk helicopters are in the works according to officials from Sikorsky. The move comes as the company is looking at adding some versatility to the utility helicopter in order to cater to market needs and increase desirability to foreign markets. The US military may not be interested in such kits, instead preferring separate attack and utility helicopter fleets, but the strategy may appeal to global markets looking to get the best value for their money. The announcement marks a proactive move by Sikorsky to exploit potential markets and new opportunities, likely influenced by new parent company Lockheed Martin.

Middle East & North Africa

• Negotiations between Russia and Egypt over communications equipment for the Egyptian Navy’s two new Mistral-class helicopter carriers is progressing well. The French made vessels initially intended for Russia had several armament, command-and-control, navigation systems, as well as radio and electronic equipment taken out in accordance with the terms of the cancellation of the sale. The Egyptians now seem to be turning to Russia to help provide these systems, after purchasing navalized Ka-52 helicopters from Moscow. It’s believed that Cairo is seeking radio and electronic equipment worth at least $1 billion USD to equip and operationalize the carriers, amounting to a nice chunk of money for Russia.

Europe

• The German Air Force may look to acquire additional transport aircraft alongside its procurement of Airbus A400Ms. Sources within the government and military have denied that the new buys are in relation to ongoing problems with the A400M; however, as many as ten new aircraft may be purchased. Potential models for the Germans could be Lockheed’s C130 Hercules, as the A400M is too wide and heavy to land on some runways.

• Norway’s Kongsberg has bought a 49.9% stake in Finnish company Patria in a deal worth $307 million. The new industry partnership will be seen as a significant strengthening of the Nordic defense industry. Kongsberg will benefit from Patria’s 50% stake in the Norwegian ammunition manufacturer Nammo, and Patria’s extensive experience of the aircraft composite industry, namely for their work on the Airbus A400 and the NH Industries NH90 helicopter.

• As of January 2017, Finmeccanica will be known as Leonardo. The rebrand of the Italian aerospace and defense giant was announced alongside a strong financial performance for 2015, ending half a decade of financial and legal turmoil. 2011 saw a net loss of more than $2.6 billion in heavy losses in power and road and rail in addition to an $848 million write-down against defects in fuselage sections and horizontal stabilizers supplied to the Boeing 787. However, for 2015, revenue was up 1.8% to $15.6 billion, and profit before interest and taxes soared 48% to $1.36 billion; return on sales increased by 1.6%, to 9.3%.

Asia Pacific

• The March 7 test by the India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) of a K-4 submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) has been successful. The missile was launched from a submerged pontoon in the Bay of Bengal. The missile was ejected from the launch tube underwater, ignited its engines, and proceeded to hit its target. The 10-metre tall two-stage missile has a launch weight of 20 tonnes can strike a target 3,500 km away. It is capable of carrying more than 2,000 kgs of warhead, both conventional and nuclear.

Today’s Video

• The GaN-based AESA radar technology in Raytheon’s Patriot system:

A400M rollout, Seville
(click to view full)

Airbus’ A400M is a EUR 20+ billion program that aims to repeat Airbus’ civilian successes in the full size military transport market. A series of smart design decisions were made around capacity (35-37 tonnes/ 38-40 US tons, large enough for survivable armored vehicles), extensive use of modern materials, multi-role capability as a refueling tanker, and a multinational industrial program; all of which leave the aircraft well positioned to take overall market share from Lockheed Martin’s C-130 Hercules. If the USA’s C-17 is allowed to go out of production, the A400M would also have a strong position in the strategic transport market, with only Russian AN-70, IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft as competition.

Airbus’ biggest program issue, by far, has been funding for a project that is more than EUR 7 billion over budget. The next biggest issue is timing, as a combination of A400M delays and Lockheed’s strong push for its C-130J Super Hercules narrow the field for future exports. This DID Spotlight article covers the latest developments, as the A400M Atlas moves into the delivery phase. Will Airbus’ 3rd big issue become its own customers?

The A400M Program History A400M concept
(click to view full)

The original EUR 16 billion A400M Letter of Intent was signed in December 2001 for development and production of 196 aircraft, with a 1st flight in 2006 and initial deliveries in 2008. A EUR 20 billion contract was eventually signed between the EU’s OCCAR agency and Airbus Military in May 2003, for 180 planes. June 26/08 saw the first A400M aircraft rolled out at the final assembly line in Seville, Spain, but aircraft weight growth became a critical issue, testbed issues slowed engine certification, 1st flight slipped to December 2009, and the 1st delivery to a customer (France) took until July 2013.

A 2009 French Sénat report estimated that A400M production would ramp up only in 2014, and that it would take until 2020 to clear the backlog introduced by development delays, assuming acceptable settlement of contractual and development issues. Costs per A400M aircraft were placed at EUR 145 million.

The beginning of deliveries is a key milestone, and its lateness escalated into a significant issue. In September 2008, EADS CEO Louis Gallois reportedly sent a letter to the governments of 7 countries who had ordered the A400M, asking them to waive the contract’s built-in penalties for late delivery. Their alternative was a freeze in production from Airbus. Their core customers refused to budge, the freeze came to pass, and it took until November 2010 before a revised OCCAR contract got the project moving again.

Future

The full details of Airbus’ revised deal can be found in Appendix A, but the gist is that the core countries paid more, including “loans” whose conditions make repayment unlikely. The program was overhauled, and the timeline changed. Overall, A400M deliveries would be an average of 3.5 years late, with an initial plane for France scheduled in March 2013 (it was actually July 2013). The 2012 – 2024 delivery schedule from the revised 2010 agreement is reproduced below:

Unfortunately, as of 2013, this schedule is already obsolete. Airbus Defence & Space’s biggest challenges are fourfold: schedule, shifted orders, second-hand sales, and speed of delivery.

Schedule. In the 2010 deal, France and Spain initially decided to space the same number of planned aircraft over a longer delivery time. Subsequent budgets indicate further delays in France, and other customers are also looking to delay their deliveries. That will “save” money in a particular budget year, but stretching out production means paying fixed costs over a longer period of time. Which means higher costs per plane, unless additional orders fill out the production line and make up the difference.

Shifts. Unfortunately, other core customers are making that difficult. In the 2010 deal, Germany and Britain responded to budget pressures by reducing their orders slightly, while remaining within the contract. Their “options” will almost certainly never be exercised, which means a de facto order reduction of 10 planes.

Second-hand Sales. Airbus’ biggest deal concession was subtle, but its effects are even more far-reaching: customers are allowed to re-sell their aircraft on the global market. So far, at least 26 A400Ms will be up for sale from the core group: 13 from Germany, and 13 “austere configuration” planes from Spain. Both countries need the initial deliveries to keep their aged airlift fleets running, but the “zu verkaufen” signs should start going up around 2018. France is also considering such sales, but in a more abstract way. For now, their immediate and urgent need for aerial transport capacity will keep them squarely focused on bringing the A400M Atlas into their operational fleet.

Speed of delivery. A lack of serving aircraft to act as an example and qualification, and a backlog of almost 200 planes, have already cost Airbus potential opportunities in Norway, Canada, and India. Lockheed Martin is using that time to solidify the C-130J variant’s position as a transport and special forces aircraft with roll-on special mission options, including precision weapons and maritime patrol. Meanwhile, Embraer’s jet-powered KC-390 is putting its own plans and customer base together on 2 continents.

A400M: Tech Specs and Issues Airbus on A400M

According to the February 2009 report from the French Sénat, serious development problems and delays have arisen in the aircraft’s digital engine controls, navigation and low-level flight systems, horizontal tail surfaces, and the definition of the wing design. The November 2010 agreement involves an interim standard that would not be capable of the more sophisticated flight modes, until avionics issues have been resolved.

The key specifications change to date involves base weight estimates that have risen by 12t/ 26,500 pounds. Airbus isn’t proposing to change the aircraft’s 37t carrying capacity, which implies a new maximum landing weight of 134t instead of 122t. That means that the most likely performance changes will be to speed (300 knots target), unrefueled range (3,450 nm target for 20t C-130J class payload; 1,780nm target at maximum 37t), and to the length of runway required for takeoff (914 m/ 3,000 feet target) and landing (822 m/ 2,700 feet target) when fully loaded.

A400M cockpit
(click to view full)

A cruise speed of Mach 0.68 – 0.72 would have approached the C-17 strategic transport’s Mach 0.74 – 0.77, and significantly bettered the C-130J’s Mach 0.56 – 0.59. Testing of production aircraft will reveal where the A400M ultimately ends up, and how much of a competitive advantage it can retain. After 2015 or so, the jet-powered Embraer KC-390 will put even more pressure on the A400M to offer competitive performance in this area.

Takeoff and landing distances are also worth watching. Some customers and potential customers may have issues if performance changes extend those runway lengths extend too far, and begin to exclude a number of bases currently in use by Lockheed’s competing C-130 family.

A400M: Industrial Team

Technically, the OCCAR contract is with Airbus Military Sociedad Limitad (AMSL). AMSL includes various divisions of EADS (90%), Turkish Aerospace Industries (5.6%), and Belgium’s Flabel (4.4%). Industrial roles include:

Contracts & Key Events 2014 – 2016

Malaysia’s delivery schedule. 1st UK delivery and schedule. RAF Brize Norton

March 18/16: The German Air Force may look to acquire additional transport aircraft alongside its procurement of Airbus A400Ms. Sources within the government and military have denied that the new buys are in relation to ongoing problems with the A400M; however, as many as ten new aircraft may be purchased. Potential models for the Germans could be Lockheed’s C130 Hercules, as the A400M is too wide and heavy to land on some runways.

February 25/16: Following a 2015 filled with delays, fines and threats of lawsuits, Airbus aims to double deliveries of their A400M transport aircraft in 2016. Having only completed 11 deliveries last year, the company’s chief executive Tom Enders has vowed a target of “20-plus” deliveries in 2016. Stable revenues in Airbus’ defense and space division has helped the company, which is trying to realign their delivery and upgrade schedule to make up for delays. But upgrades regarding the aircraft’s military capabilities remain a challenge.

January 11/16: Problems surrounding the Airbus A400M acquisition by a group of European NATO members are set to continue as Turkey expects not to receive any deliveries this year. Ankara was expecting two of the heavy cargo planes to arrive during the year as part of an order for ten made in 2003. The initial schedule would have already seen Turkey take possession of six by 2016, but only three are now in operation. Delays to the schedule seem to have stemmed from the May 2015 A400M crash in Spain which saw four airmen killed. As a safety precaution, all deliveries of the aircraft to customers were stalled. The news comes as others in the program, such as France, have looked elsewhere to make up for the temporary shortfall.

December 16/15: Turkey has received delivery of its third Airbus A400M after the first two had been sent back to Spain for retrofit and software work. The delays in their flights came following the crash of an A400M in Spain during the summer. Disputes have arisen between the Turkish government and Airbus over delays and production problems, but they are not the only country to have done so. While Germany has started to receive initial orders of the plane, it fined Airbus $14 million in November over delays to deliveries.

December 4/15: Germany has received the first Airbus A400M cargo aircraft, with a second planned to be delivered by the end of the year. Five were initially to be delivered to Germany in 2015, but delays have caused this to be scaled back to just two. Slow production of the aircraft has led to delays in deliveries to seven European NATO members involved in the A400M program. Germany fined Airbus $14 million last month once the late delivery was announced. Germany has ordered 53 of the aircraft in total which is Europe’s most expensive aircraft acquisition program.

December 3/15: The Spanish government has come to an agreement with Airbus to decrease its order of A400M cargo aircraft. Spain is legally obliged to continue with the purchase of the full fleet of 27, but this has been postponed. Instead, a temporary reduction in the order will be allowed with 14 planes being delivered by 2022. Discussions will then continue as to what will be done with the remainder of the acquisition. Problems with the order arose after the Spanish Air Force found it difficult to fund the full order on time. The Airbus A400M Atlas program was developed for the requirements of seven European NATO members. At a cost of $22 billion, it is Europe’s biggest arms contract, but had been initially fraught with delays and technical problems. One of the planes crashed in May, just north of Seville, during an air force test flight.

November 27/15: Airbus is to offer surveillance and intelligence reconnaissance upgrades for its A400M and A330 Airborne tanker planes. The announcement comes at a time when governments are seeking a short-cut to enhance intelligence gathering capabilities, as action against the Islamic State increases along with operational requirements. The ability for these aircraft to hold all required fuel in their wings allows for existing off the shelf equipment to be installed with ease. Airbus has orders for these planes from France, Britain, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, all of whom are currently taking action in the Middle East. This could be seen as an attempt by Airbus to boost the usability of their aircraft amid a decrease in sales of the A400M. The drop is a result of the crash of one of the planes in Spain earlier this year.

November 16/15: Germany has reportedly fined Airbus €13 ($14) million for its failure to deliver on time two A400M military transport planes. This follows reports from earlier this year of the German Ministry of Defense seeking €300 ($280) million compensation from the company over its delays and France cancelling its order in favor of C-130 Hercules from Lockheed.

October 12/15: Egypt is showing interest in the Airbus A400M, according to two Spanish press reports [Spanish]. With potential deals falling through with South Africa and Chile (which opted for the Embraer KC-390), the North African country would be the first export customer after Malaysia joined the program in 2005, as well as the first customer following the crash of one A400M in May. Egypt operates 24 C295 transports, also manufactured by Airbus.

September 11/15: The Royal Air Force appears to have taken delivery of its fourth A400M aircraft, with 70 Squadron’s Twitter account posting a photograph of the new transporter at RAF Brize Norton. A third aircraft was delivered in July, with a total of 22 on order from Airbus. The Ministry of Defence’s Defence Infrastructure Organisation began work in August to expand the Brize Norton airbase to accommodate the growing fleet.

August 6/15: With the delivery of a third Airbus A400M transporter to the Royal Air Force in July, the UK’s Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO) has begun construction of a new maintenance facility for the fleet. The $65.7 million project at RAF Brize Norton is slated for completion next year, with the RAF expecting the delivery of nineteen more A400Ms.

May 11/15: Following the crash of an Airbus A400M transport aircraft in Seville, Spain on Saturday, the Royal Air Force, Luftwaffe and Turkish Air Force have grounded their fleets. The aircraft was on an Airbus test flight, with the crash killing four crew members. The destroyed aircraft was due for delivery to Turkey in June, which would have made it the third Turkish A400M, following a 2003 contract for ten of the aircraft.

March 17/15: First delivery to Malaysia. Malaysia
received the first of four Airbus A400 transport aircraft, with this being the first export customer for the model.

Jan 30/15: Military aircraft chief fired over delays. Airbus sacked its military aircraft chief as European partners chafe at continuing delays in the delivery of the A400M heavy lift plane. Domingo Ureña Raso is out and the program’s industrial activities will be transferred to another unit. A wider reorganization is underway, the details of which are to be announced in late February.

Dec. 8/14: MRO. The UK’s Defence Equipment & Support and France’s DGA finalized their joint support contract with Airbus via the OCCAR agency, whose terms had been a point of contention for years (see Oct 12/11 entry). In the meantime France had put an ISS contract in place back in February 2013. The two countries will share spares inventory and maintenance services. Sources: UK MoD | DGA.

Nov. 28/14: UK schedule. Since the 1st delivery was delayed and acceptance is taking more time than expected, one or two of the UK’s first 4 A400Ms may now be delivered in early 2015. Officials hope to reach initial operating capability later that year with 7 aircraft, and reach the total of 22 deliveries by 2018. Standard Operating Clearance 1.5 has slipped into 2015, when the aircraft should demonstrate tactical capabilities that are still unmet.

Source: AviationWeek: A400M Capability Delays Won’t Impact U.K. Operations.

Nov 17/14: UK 1st delivery. Following its maiden flight in August, the UK received its first A400M aircraft at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, where the fleet will be based. This comes about 6 weeks behind the expected date.

UK’s 1st

Nov 14/14: Airbus outlook. Airbus announced strong financial results 9 months into 2014 but had this to say on the Atlas:

“The A400M programme industrial ramp-up is ongoing and entering into progressive enhancements of military capabilities but with some delays incurred. The sequence of progressive enhancements and deliveries is under negotiation with customers and related costs, risks and mitigation actions are under assessment. A contractual termination right became exercisable on 1 November 2014. However, management judges that it is highly unlikely that this termination right is exercised.”

Final assembly

Sept 23/14: Malaysia. Airbus announces that the 1st of 4 aircraft ordered by Malaysia is under final assembly in Seville, Spain, and will be delivered at the beginning of 2015, presumably before the LIMA ’15 airshow. Two more deliveries are to follow through 2015, and a final one in 2016. Malaysian pilots are currently being trained by the company. With just 4 planes this will complement rather than replace the existing fleet of C-130s.

The program’s cost comes to MYR 3.5 billion (around $925 million at 2005 exchange rates) including training and logistics, according to the Malaysian Air Force. That’s a sizable investment for a country whose entire defense budget barely reached $5 billion in 2014 (MYR 16.1 billion), with just $850 million (MYR $2.7 billion) available for “development” (i.e. procurement) according to the Treasury.

IHS Jane’s has the cost at a much higher MYR 8 billion. We think that’s just wrong. It contradicts official figures, and even after a sizable industrial offset with Composites Technology Research Malaysia (CTRM) as part of the original deal, it’s way out of scale with both the aircraft’s known flyaway cost and the country’s finances. Sources: Airbus, Malaysian Air Force and Treasury websites | IHS Jane’s: “First A400M for Malaysia takes shape” | See also MYR 3.5 billion figure in 2012 Malaysia Star, “A400M airlifter gets RMAF chief’s seal of approval”.

Sept 22/14: Germany. Several German newspapers report that an internal memo exchanged last month between the Defense Ministry and federal government auditors states that the government reserves the right to push for price reductions or even terminate the order on a case-by-case basis for any aircraft that falls short of its contractual configuration. The Bundeswehr will need the aircraft soon if it wants to help in interventions from Western Africa to Iraq, as its 5-decade-old Transalls are creaking and some parts are no longer available. There is always the SALIS fallback, which is starting to look long in the tooth for an “interim” solution. Sources: Reuters: “Germany pushes Airbus for cost cuts on A400Ms” (sourced on tabloid Bild am Sonntag) | Die Welt: “So marode sind die Maschinen der Bundeswehr”.

MSN15

Aug 29/14: UK 1st flight. Airbus announces that MSN15, the 1st of 22 aircraft order by the RAF, made its maiden flight, one month ahead of its scheduled delivery.

Aug 28/14: Aerial Refueling. An Airbus A400M test plane successfully performs 5 air-to-air refueling tests with a Spanish EA-18 Hornet fighter, with 33 dry contacts and 35 wet contacts that dispensed 18.6 tonnes of fuel.

The A400M has a basic fuel capacity of 50.8 tonnes, which can be expanded using optional extra cargo hold tanks. Full provisions for Air-to-Air Refueling (AAR) operations come installed as standard, but the A400M requires the installation of an air-to-air refueling kit with the requisite pods, etc. in order to become a tanker.

A400M: Short take-off

July 24/14: A400M Batch I. Aircraft MSN10 (4th production A400M, France’s 3rd) becomes the first of its type to be produced in “Batch 1” version, with a fuel inerting system, and improvements in the avionics and cargo system. In addition:

“To enable the delivery of MSN010, OCCAR-EA has prepared and signed in behalf of France a Contract Amendment related to the implementation of the LPM (Loi de Programmation Militaire) conditions and has signed in behalf of France and the UK a contract amendment related to the definition of “Batch 1 aircraft”, including FR/UK swap of production aircraft. This concludes extensive work performed by all parties that define the conditions of delivery for the four FR Batch1 aircraft (MSN10, 11, 12 and 14) and that update the A400M delivery schedule.”

Sources: OCCAR, “First A400M in “Batch 1″ configuration delivered”.

July 16/14: Aerial Refueling. Airbus performs the first aerial refueling of the A400M, using an RAF A330 Voyager with a Fuselage Refueling Unit. In the course of 4 flights, by day and night, in southern Spain, the A400M received more than 80 tons of fuel in 100 “wet contacts.”

The A400M relies on its probe for refueling, and requires a drogue hose from its refueling tanker. Sources: Airbus DS, “Airbus A330 tanker aircraft refuels A400M”.

July 7/14: Turkey. Turkey’s A400M Atlas complete its 1st international flight, carrying the TuAF’s Soloturk F-16 demonstration team to London for Farnborough on July 2, and touching down in Luxembourg on its way back. Sources: Hurriyet, “Turkish A400M carries military equipment in debut international flight”.

July 2/14: Sub-contractors. South Africa’s Denel Aerostructures announces a 6-year, R 260 million (about $24.2 million) sub-contract from Airbus to manufacture a combination of aluminum rails and cross-tracks for the A400M’s cargo hold. It was reportedly a competitive tender bid.

The firm is already building the plane’s center wing box top shell, and the cargo hold components are expected to begin delivery to Germany by September 2014. Sources: The Citizen, “Denel Aerostructures land military airbus deal”.

May 22/14: Germany. Diehl Defence announces that it will work with its long-time partner Elbit to supply defensive systems for the German A400M fleet. Their cooperation would combine 3 of Elbit System´s J-MUSIC systems into a multi-turret DIRCM (Directed Infrared Counter Measure) system with 360 degree protection.

MUSIC comes in podded (C-MUSIC) and DIRCM solutions, and is designed to protect civilian airliners as well as military aircraft. Existing MUSIC military customers include Italian Air Force C-130J and C-27J military transports and AW101 CSAR helicopters, and Brazil’s KC-390 military transports. Sources: Diehl Defence, “Diehl signed a cooperation agreement with Elbit Systems on A400M protection system” | Defense Update, “Israeli DIRCM laser to protect German A400M transport planes”.

April 4/14: Turkey. Airbus announces that Turkey finally accepted its 1st A400M, and “following today’s contractual transfer of title, the aircraft will be flown to Kayseri air base in central Turkey, where it will initially be used for training.” Airbus CEO Tom Enders had denounced (q.v. Feb 27/14) the Turkish Air Force’s earlier refusal of the aircraft delivery as pure bargaining. Sources: Airbus, “Airbus Defence and Space delivers A400M to Turkish Air Force.”

Feb 27/14: Chile. Infodefensa reports that Chile has sent Airbus an RFI in September 2013 regarding 4-6 C295 light tactical transports, and is also expressing interest in up to 6 A400Ms. Chile actually signed a Declaration of Intent to buy up to 3 A400Ms in July 2005, but they formally switched their interest to Brazil’s smaller jet-powered KC-390 in 2010. Their tactical airlift fleet certainly needs some help, as it’s composed of 3 very aged C-130B/H Hercules medium tactical transports, 3 old C-212 light tactical transports, and about 13 DHC-6 Twin Otter “bush planes”.

The C295 is already in Chilean service as a maritime patrol aircraft, and Chile is reportedly interested in signing a deal for a couple of transport variants before the end of the year. C-212s suffered a series of lethal accidents in 2012, including a Chilean crash that killed 21 people. Their replacement is a high priority. The A400M vs. KC-390 question is less clear, as Chile’s delivery timeline is closer to “end of the decade.” The 2010 MoU with Embraer isn’t binding, and Chilean sources told Infodefensa that:

“Lo que se hara sera evaluar las prestaciones de ese avion, cuando hayan ejemplares de produccion, para determinar si satisface los requerimientos operativos de Chile, sin descartar otras opciones que puedan cumplir dichos requerimientos en mejor forma”

Translation: “When the KC-390 has a flying plane to evaluate, we’ll see if it satisfies our requirements. But we reserve the right to pick something else first, if we think it meets our requirements better.” The A400M is a larger plane that will carry heavier loads, by a margin of around 10t, and may also perform better in Chile’s dusty environs. The flip side is that it’s a significantly more expensive plane, but Chile might be able to get a deal on some of the 13 “austere configuration” aircraft that Spain plans to sell. FACh commander in chief Gen. Jorge Rojas Avila happened to be in Spain at the time of the report, and toured Airbus Military’s factory in Getafe. Sources: Infodefensa, “Chile, interesada en adquirir aviones C-295 y A400M” | Chile’s Defense & Military, “Is Chile Bailing Out on Embraer’s KC-390 Cargo Plane?”.

Feb 27/14: Turkey. Airbus CEO Tom Enders isn’t super-happy with Turkey these days, because they haven’t accepted delivery of production aircraft #3. The plane made its maiden flight on Aug 12/13, and its 1st flight in TuAF colors on Aug 28/13. Enders says that:

“The aircraft is ready to go…. It’s the same aircraft that we delivered to the French Air Force that has been instantly operational and fit for flight. I find the situation increasingly unacceptable…. I constrain myself to one word. Bargaining…. In a multinational program that’s really a problem. How can you efficiently ramp up production if you have no certainty that your customers are taking those aircraft?”

Enders has a point, and subsequent statements imply that Airbus will look to press its case via OCCAR and other core countries, if things don’t settle soon. On the other hand, the Turks didn’t just make a random decision. Undersecretary for Defense Murad Bayar has said they don’t believe that production aircraft #3 meets their contract’s specifications and capabilities. Which is no surprise, given recent German reports (q.v. Dec 11/13). So, yeah, bargaining. Sources: Bloomberg BusinessWeek, “Airbus CEO Says Turkish Delay in Taking A400M Threatens Ramp-Up” | Turkish News, “Airbus and Turkey dispute over A400M military aircraft ” | Airbus Military, “First Airbus Military A400M for Turkish Air Force makes maiden flight” and “Airbus Military A400M flies in Turkish Air Force”.

2013

France accepts 1st production A400M, but long-term fleet size in question; Spain will sell 13 A400Ms, bringing the second-hand pool to 26 now; French initial support agreement; UK long-term training contract; LAIRCM for UK A400Ms, but no refueling pods. French A400M
(click to view full)

Dec 11/13: Germany. The German defense ministry says that they expect their 1st A400M in November 2014 as planned, but it will not have the full military capabilities ordered. That will require retrofits after delivery, and they’re only expected to be complete by mid-2015. Sources: Reuters, ”
Germany may get full-spec A400M airlifter later than planned”.

Oct 3/13: Training. France signs an agreement with Germany to harmonize training, and share facilities. Training for maintainers and type rating for flight crews will take place at Wunstorf AB, Germany beginning in summer 2015. Operational aircrew training will take place at Orleans AB, France beginning in 2014, and German students will begin training there from 2018 onward.

This isn’t the only multinational effort underway: France in discussing a joint A400M support deal with Britain (q.v. Feb 18/13), and there are efforts within the EU’s EATC to define common operational procedures and common training. Sources: French Air Force, “A400M : Signature d’un partenariat de formation franco-allemand”.

Joint training: France & Germany

Oct 1/13: The economic challenge. Defense-Aerospace points out that the initial A400M ceremony is just the beginning of the real challenge, which is profitability. His core point is simple: 174 planes might keep a production line going for 6-7 years at rates below their 30 planes per year peak, but won’t recover even R&D and launch costs, let alone pay off additional terms from the 2011 deal.

Giovanni de Briganti further calculates that around 1/3 of the core customer planes have disappeared (3 Britain + 7 Germany now options, 13 German and 13 Spanish to sell, and possibly another 10-15 French to sell = 51/174, or 29.3%), and notes that most of the disappearances will compete with Airbus in the export market.

On the bright side, Airbus can look forward to selling one of very few global options during its production run. The C-17 line is about to close, and the Chinese aren’t quite ready to join the inter-theater airlift competition with their Y-20. That leaves the A400M up against the smaller C-130/ KC-390 class 20-ton capacity intra-theater transports, Ukraine’s comparable but ailing An-70 turboprop program, and Russia’s IL-476 jet. Airbus officials tout Lockheed Martin’s super-long sales period for the C-130, but that’s only because it had enough domestic and foreign orders to keep its line open continuously. If Airbus’ core customers cannibalize its near-term export sales and shut the production line, the program may not have a long term to sell in. Sources: Defense-Aerospace, “Ceremony Opens A400M Profitability Challenge”

The Big Ceremony
click for video

Sept 30/13: France. A delivery ceremony for the 1st A400M is held at the Airbus Military Final Assembly Line in Seville, Spain. French and Spanish dignitaries are present, and other deliveries are expected to take place soon. The end of August saw a new A400M flown in Turkish colors, and Sources: French Air Force, “L’A400M Atlas arrive dans les forces” | Airbus Military releases: Aug 28/13, Sept 30/13.

Sept 4/13: Testing. More than a week of gravel airfield testing at Ablitas in northern Spain goes well, with the runway still usable after 25 landings, and no issues with the engines or cockpit, and damage to the A400M “minimal and within expectations.”

Demonstrations included ground maneuvering, rejected take-offs, and propeller reverse thrust at speeds as low as 70kt / 130 kmh, both with and without the optional nosewheel deflector. Sources: Airbus Military, Sept 4/13 release.

Aug 2/13: France. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirms France’s official target of 50 A400Ms by 2025, but also confirms that the new defense budget would see only 15 A400Ms delivered by 2019, instead of the 27 envisioned in the 2010 agreement. He adds that after 2019, those requirements could change:

“Je n’ai pas fait mes arbitrages pour savoir ce qu’il y aura apres 2019…. Le nombre d’A400M sur le total d’avions de transport dont nous aurons besoin n’est pas fixe.”

France can’t reduce the 50-plane order without heavy financial penalties. What they could do is add more A400Ms to a growing second-hand sales pool, stifling Airbus exports (q.v. July 26/13). Les Echos [in French].

Aug 1/13: France. France accepts delivery of the 1st production A400M. It will head immediately to Orleans-Bricy air base, where it will be used as a training platform. The plane will eventually become part of the French Air Force operational transport fleet. France DGA [ in French] | Airbus Military.

France accepts 1st A400M

July 26/13: Spain. The Spanish government approves an extra EUR 877.33 million (about $1.165 billion) in their 2013 budget, in order to finance payments that have come due on several major weapons programs. Just EUR 46.6 million of that total involves the Airbus A400M. At the same time, they will look to sell half of their proposed A400M fleet, and make cuts in other programs, in order to finance investments in their troubled S-80 submarine program, and purchases of their Pizarro (ASCOD 2) tracked IFVs:

“Contractually, Spain has to take all of the 27 A400Ms it has ordered,” a spokesman for Airbus Military told defense-aerospace.com July 29, “but if it wants to sell some of them, we have nothing to say.” He also said that the first 14 aircraft are due to be delivered by 2020, and that a decision to sell off the aircraft on will not be taken until after then, “so it’s still some time off.” He added that Spain’s final 13 A400Ms would be delivered in an austere configuration, without many mission systems, to reduce cost.

Germany also intends to sell 13 of their A400Ms, as a Parliamentary condition of accepting the revised 2010 deal. That cut-rate pool of 26 second-hand planes is larger than orders in all but 2 core countries, which means it’s going to put a crimp in export orders. That isn’t ideal for Airbus, but it isn’t completely negative. If they don’t meet their export targets for new-build planes, they don’t have to pay back their EUR 1.5 billion “Export Levy Facility” loan from the core partner countries. Sources: Defense-Aerospace | Publico [in Spanish].

July 21-22/13: Certification. France may be proceeding to military type certification of the A400M, but Der Spiegel reports that Germany will have serious trouble. Germany is behind France in its delivery schedule, but close enough to delivery that certification needs to start now. Unfortunately, the commercial/ OCCAR approach to certification is incompatible with German law. It needs official Bundeswehr approval from the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw), working with the quality standards authority in Koblenz or the Military Technical Department 61 in Manching, Bavaria.

The bad news? Instead of the dozen qualified inspectors they’d need, a decade of steady cuts has left the BAAINBw with no qualified inspectors, and misplaced confidence in an external solution has left them with no legally-compliant plan. Both problems might have been solved with the planned Europe-wide military certification, but Europe hasn’t established any such system. Meanwhile, Airbus Military points rather inflexibly to the production contract, which doesn’t have any provisions for German inspectors to oversee final assembly.

As a result, plans explicitly designed to cut the cost of German licensing may end up backfiring, and create a situation in which the German inspectors who must be involved in certification can’t obtain the information they need to certify, but are still held personally responsible under German law in the event of an accident.

BWB undersecretary Stephane Beemelmans has formed a working group (q.v. Dec 20/12), whose May 31/13 memo recommends the immediate hire of 6 people at basic salaries up to EUR 108,000 per year, and the eventual creation in Cologne, Munster, or Manching of a national military certification agency of up to 400 employees within 4 years. Meanwhile, he’s trying to push the concept of a “virtual” national military aviation authority for the operation to certify the A400M. The legality of that approach could end up being decided by a court, and if it is, German A400M flight operations would be placed in a precarious legal position.

Germany’s defense ministry responds to subsequent questions from Bloomberg by emailing a response that doesn’t answer any of the key questions: “The timely delivery of the German A400M, according to the contract changes from 2010, is secure at this time.” Maybe, but delivery doesn’t mean you can fly them. Der Spiegel | Bloomberg.

July 19/13: Certification. The Certification and Qualification Committee of experts from the 7 A400M partner countries recommend its certification to France’s DGA, who is expected to accept that recommendation and issue a certificate in time for final acceptance of the 1st plane. The DGA acts as France’s technical authority, which is responsible for issuing a military type certificate allowing A400M flights.

Civil certification by EASA is its own separate process, and so is military qualification by the EU’s managing Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR). DGA [in French].

April 22/13: UK Costs. In response to a Parliamentary question from Angus Robertson [SNP – Moray], UK Secretary of State for Defence Dunne says that their A400M program is likely to come in around GBP 770 million over initial approval costs (around $1.23 billion), despite a cut in the fleet’s size from 25 to 22 planes. As Dunne explains, however:

“It should be noted that the cost variation quoted is assessed against MOD project approval figures, which represent the total MOD costs for any particular project. They therefore do not necessarily reflect contractual obligations. Project performance can be affected by a number of reasons, not all of which are in the contractor’s control.”

Dunne also acknowledges a conflict between this information and his written answer to Mr. Robertson on Nov 6/12, which listed EADS as having 0 projects over budget. The difference? This answer acknowledges Airbus Military as part of EADS, and it also addresses forecast costs rather than budgets to date. Mr. Dunne adds “the passage of time” to that list, making one wonder what has changed in the last 5 months. UK Hansard.

March 14/13: UK. UK minister for defence equipment, support and technology Philip Dunne confirms to Flight International that new RAF A400Ms won’t have in-flight refueling pods added to let them perform as aerial tankers, because:

“The Ministry of Defence has recently refreshed its study into requirements for air-to-air refuelling capability. This concluded that Voyager will meet all requirements; therefore, there is no need for an air-to-air refuelling capability by the A400M Atlas.”

Does Mr. Dunne even read his own press releases? The RAF’s new A330 Voyager MRTTs lack key defensive systems, in order to avoid conflicts with their secondary use as civil charter planes. Those kinds of warning and decoy systems are necessary for refueling aircraft in hazardous environments, as several Parliamentary reports have noted. Dunne’s own March 4/13 announcement touted their importance to the A400M. Flight International.

March 13/13: EASA cert. Airbus Military announces full EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) civil Type Certification for the A400M. Civil certification is and long and arduous process, and its completion means that the A400M will be able to take advantage of fuel and time saving civil air routes.

French military certification trials continue, but they’re a separate issue. So, too, are other ongoing tests for advanced military functions, including air-to-air refueling when equipped with hose & drogue pods, airdropping of supplies and paratroopers, and low-level flight. Airbus Military.

Full EASA Type certification

March 6/13: Testing. Maiden flight of the 1st production-model A400M, which will be delivered to the French Armee de l’Air. Airbus Military.

March 4/13: UK LAIRCM mods. The UK MoD announces a GBP 80 million (about $120 million) contract to develop and install A400M modifications that would let it support Northrop Grumman’s LAIRCM defense system against optically-guided missiles. Those kinds of systems provide, in the words of UK minister Phillip Dunne, “essential defensive capability and peace of mind when operating in hostile environments.”

LAIRCM is designed to equip large aircraft, rather than fighter jets. It detects incoming missiles, and fires a laser at the seeker head. It isn’t powerful enough to destroy the missile, but by varying the pulses, it can provide massive false returns to the seeker. UK MoD

March 4/13: UK. The UK Ministry of Defence signs an 18-year, GBP 226 million ($340 million) contract with Airbus Military and Thales UK to supply RAF A400M training services. The contract is technically with the A400M Training Services Ltd. joint venture between those 2 firms. The contract will design, build, and manage the A400M Atlas Training School for aircrew and ground crews at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, including the full flight simulators and all synthetic training equipment, and support the RAF’s own course design team and training staff.

The simulators will be built at Thales UK’s facility in Crawley, West Sussex. They’ll include 2 full flight simulators for RAF pilots, a specialist workstation to train loadmasters, a cockpit simulator to train engineers, and a suite of computer-based training equipment.

Note that this is not the same as the joint support deal said to be in negotiations with France, but this infrastructure will accompany that eventual solution. UK MoD | Airbus Military.

UK training facilities

Feb 18/13: France. The EU’s OCCAR signs an initial 18-month In-Service Support (ISS) contract, on behalf of the French Armee de l’Air. The amount isn’t revealed, but it covers industrial on-base maintenance support, spares management, extended query answering service, etc. for the initial operating base at Orleans.

In November 2012, Airbus Military proposed that this 18-month period should be followed by an extension that adds the UK. “The parties concerned are currently discussing this offer with an expectation to reach an agreement during the second semester of this year.” Airbus Military.

Initial support: France

Jan 15/13: MSN7, the 1st production A400M, rolls out of the Seville hangar in French air force colors. It’s scheduled for delivery around mid-2013. Airbus Military.

2012

A400M becomes “Atlas”; French Senat report concerned about support; Initial certifications. Final assembly
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Dec 20/12: Germany. Germany’s defense ministry approves he formation of a working group to “develop an organization for the safe use of Bundeswehr aircraft and aviation equipment for transportation.” The deadline for their initial report in May 31/13.

What they really mean is that the A400M’s flight certification process doesn’t mesh with German laws, and they need a fast fix. See July 22/13 entry for more. Source: Der Spiegel.

Dec 10/12: Airbus Military has successfully completed the 300 hours of Function & Reliability (F&R) flight-testing, which had been interrupted by engine troubles. This is the last major step toward full certification. Airbus Military.

Aug 31/12: Engines. Airbus Military re-confirms that it will deliver the expected 4 A400Ms in 2013, though France’s 2nd plane will be a bit late within the year.

They also discuss the engine problems that kept them out of Farnborough air show (vid. July 4/12), which also suspended EASA full Type Certificate (TC). The problem was apparently a crack of a cover plate isolating elements within the Propeller Gear Box (PGB), and Europrop is currently validating a new design. As a consequence, the civil Type Certification and military Initial Operating Capability (IOC) will now move into Q1 2013.

July 9/12: Training. Britain places a GBP 50 million order for its first A400M Full Flight Simulator (FFS) and Simulator Support System (SSS), to be co-located with the A400Ms at RAF Brize Norton. It will be delivered in spring 2014, ahead of the first delivery to the Royal Air Force later in 2014. The FFS will be maintained by a joint venture consisting of Airbus Military and Thales UK’s Training & Simulation Ltd (TTSL). The 2 firms have been working on these simulators since 2007, with Airbus providing the data and software package to faithfully simulate its A400M, and Thales providing the simulator.

These simulators are developed and produced in Crawley, UK, and this is actually the 4th FFS. Airbus Military’s International Training Centre in Seville, Spain ordered the 1st, and France and Germany ordered #2 and 3. UK Prime Minister’s Office | Airbus Military.

July 7/12: The EU’s OCCAR and the A400M program countries give their transport an official operational designation: “Atlas.” That’s better than some of the suggestions out there, vid. July 19/10 entry.

The previous “Grizzly” moniker was an unofficial handle, used for the test planes. Airbus Military | UK MoD.

A400M Atlas

July 5/12: French Senat support report. With deliveries about the begin, the French Senate committee on foreign affairs and defense releases its examination of the A400M’s certification and support arrangements, while expressing the hope that budget austerity won’t cut existing A400M orders any further. They’re concerned that the support agreements look set to be a series of individual country arrangements, especially for the engines, and that basic provisions like a common spare parts pool aren’t being established. That will be much more expensive, and the Senat explains that 2/3 of a plane’s total lifetime cost is tied up operations & maintenance (in French, the acronym is MCO). On the other hand, individual arrangements would also let each country support its own local aerospace companies with maintenance contracts. All politics is local, so the French will have a very difficult time realizing the Senat’s ideal:

“En particulier, le principe du juste retour doit être définitivement abandonné et liberté doit être donnée aux industriels contractants de choisir leurs sous-traitants en fonction de leurs compétences et non pas de leur nationalité.”

The Senat may have more luck with their push for a common certification process, especially in light of the multi-national EATC transport pool. Common certification would simplify multi-national deployment of planes in the pool, but the Senat also sees a European military flight certification process as an important brand item for weapons exports. Senat Release | Full report [PDF, all documents in French]. See also Oct 12/11 entry.

Senat report: MCO

July 4/12: Atlas shrugs. Unexplained metallic shards in an engine gearbox will keep the A400M from performing its flight display at Farnborough 2012. The plane will be on static display instead.

The British event is the world’s most important airshow, and engine problems also cut short its planned flights at the Paris Air Show (“Le Bourget”) last year. This is a sensible precaution under the circumstances, but none of this will improve the already-poor relations between Airbus and Europrop. Bloomberg | Reuters.

No Farnborough flight

May 29/12: Engines. Flight International looks at the TP400-D6 turboprop engine sub-program’s progress and history. EPI President Simon Henley describes it as designed “for a civil-standard life, with all of the commercial reliability and availability aspects you’d design, but in a military environment.” Other key excerpts:

“An in-flight shutdown in June [2011] led to redesign of the engine’s idler gear, while the inlet vane was tweaked after the discovery of high-pressure compressor blade fatigue… In the course of bringing the TP400-D6 to series production, assembly was consolidated at MTU Aero Engines’ Munich facility and pass-off testing at MTU’s site in Ludwigsfelde, near Berlin… Having the TP400-D6 line at Munich was seen as a route to greater efficiency for MTU, which could move manpower between different lines – commercial and military… ramp-up plans provide for annual production to reach a peak of 120 in 2015. EPI aims to reduce the time to assemble and test a TP400-D6 from an initial 60 days to 30 days. The engine is flat-rated at 10,000shp (7,460kW) at sea level, and has an uprated take-off capability of 11,000shp for hot and high conditions.”

May 30/12: South Africa. Denel Aerostructures (once Denel Saab Aero) is still losing money, and has pushed expected profitability back to 2016/17. They’re on track to deliver their first A400M parts this year, reportedly losing money on producing A400M parts, but have renegotiated with Airbus and raised prices. They’d better, because Airbus appears to be their only large customer. They just received a R700 million (currently about $82 million) capital injection from the National Treasury. IOL BusinessReport | Mail & Guardian.

May 5/12: EASA RTC. Airbus Military has received the A400M’s initial Restricted Type Certificate from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Full EASA civil certification is expected in mid-2012, and military Initial Operating Clearance is expected later in 2012. Certifications are often overlooked, but without them, new aircraft usually won’t be accepted into military service.

Europrop International has been ahead of the overall aircraft in this respect: its TP400-D6 engine got EASA type certification in May 2011, while the propeller was certified in March 2012. Relations with Airbus Military are still poor, however, as emphasized by this excerpt from the Airbus release:

“The fleet of five A400M development aircraft continues to make good progress in the intense flight-test campaign in order to ensure delivery of a reliable aircraft to our customer and has now completed more than 3,100 hours in the air, despite continued engine challenges.”

Certifications

March 30/12: High altitude testing. Airbus Military announces that A400M “Grizzly 2” recently visited La Paz, Bolivia, to perform high-altitude tests from an airport located more than 13,000 feet above mean sea level.

The firm also used the trip to do some promotion, showing the plane at the FIDAE airshow in Chile, and visiting Lima, Peru. Chile had an option for up to 3 A400Ms, but seems set to order Brazil’s KC-390s instead. Peru may prove to be more promising.

March 22/12: Prop certified. The European Aviation Safety Agency grants United Technologies Hamilton Sundstrand subsidiary Ratier-Figeac a FH385/386 propeller system type certificate. This is an important certification milestone for the platform, and for the 11,000 hp engine that drives the 8-bladed, all-composite, 17.5 foot diameter propellers.

This is the largest all-composite propeller in production, which handles twice the power of any existing in-service propeller. The firm says that it offers a thrust efficiency peak close to 90% at high cruise speeds, and each wing features a pair of clockwise and counter-clockwise rotating propellers for added aircraft stability and control.

In addition to the propeller system, Hamilton Sundstrand and its subsidiaries supply the A400M’s Secondary Electrical Power Distribution Center (SEPDC), Auxiliary Power Unit (APU), Ram Air Turbine (RAT) emergency power system, Trimmable Horizontal Stabilizer Actuator (THSA), and the Throttle Control Assembly (TCA). Hamilton Sundstrand.

2011

Series production restarts, but engine still a source of friction; Export targets? Certifiable
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Oct 12/11: MRO. The head of France’s DGA, Laurent Collet-Billon, has told the Assemblée Nationale’s defense commission that Airbus’ maintenance proposals have not been satisfactory, “…notably as regards to the engine.” Without a negotiated maintenance contract, the DGA is threatening to refuse to accept the planes, which would hold up the associated payments.

France is due to be the plane’s 1st operational customer, in March 2013. That requires a first-increment maintenance contract, until Britain begins to receive its planes and a joint maintenance contract can be signed. Les Echos is reporting that the price gap in current negotiations is around 20%.

Kepler Capital equity analyst Christophe Menard also points out that European MRO budgets are set to decline on average by 3.8% per year between 2010-2015, which helps explain the DGA’s drive for savings. On the other hand, Airbus can’t afford to bleed a lot more cash on the A400M project, and they can’t agree to another unrealistic plan like the A400M’s ruinous design phase. To make matters worse, ongoing distrust between Airbus and Europrop appears to be pushing Airbus to seek a significant margin of financial safety, before they will commit to a maintenance contract that includes the A400M’s engines. Aviation Week | Dow Jones | Les Echos and Commission de la défense nationale et des forces armées [both in French].

Sept 17/11: Testing. A400M “Grizzly 1” performs the grueling “high-energy rejected take-off test.” That means it was loaded to the maximum take-off weight, then made a take-off run that was aborted at the V1 decision speed – the maximum speed at which the pilot has to decide whether to continue a take-off. Grizzly-1 blew out 3 tires stopping the plane, which isn’t unusual under the circumstances, and the test was considered a success. Airbus Military.

June 12/11: Marketing. Aviation Week talks to Airbus Military SVP of commercial business, Antonio Rodriguez Barberan. He sees the A400M as dominant by default within a decade, as Boeing’s C-17 line shuts down. Airbus Military’s estimate is 2,450 heavy transport aircraft around the world that are on average 26 years old. 1,015 are in North America, followed by Russia with 475:

“Barberan and his team know which countries to target when they ramp up marketing next year: those with major air forces and a large number of old transport aircraft – such as C-130s, C-17s and Ilyushin Il-76s. “In the next 10 years Asia will be a major market,” he says, except for China… Other candidates include Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates… “In the medium-to-long term the U.S. market is huge and there is a capability gap which the A400M would fill in due time.” This is also true for Australia, which recently procured C-130s, “but in 20 years, when these are becoming old, we will be there.” No presentations have yet been made to India, “but due to the size of the market the A400M would be perfect,” he says.”

May 6/11: Engine cert. Europrop International GmbH (EPI) announces that their TP400-D6 engine has received European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) type certification. It is the first large turboprop engine to have been certified by EASA, and the first military engine to have been certified by EASA to civil standards from the outset. EPI.

May 3/11: Europrop International GmbH (EPI) announces that have finalized an amendment to their agreement with Airbus Military SL for the TP400 engine. The firm says that the amendment resolves all existing issues, but doesn’t give details.

See also March 16/11 entry. EPI | Flight International.

Europrop settlement & certification

March 24/11: Testing. The A400M completes Vmu tests for the lowest feasible takeoff speed. Airbus Military.

March 16/11: Aviation Week reports that the qualified progress between OCCAR and Airbus Military could lead to agreement between the Europrop International (EPI) TP400-D6 engine consortium and Airbus Military, to settle conflicting compensation claims over engine-related delays. Airbus wants EUR 500 million in damages from EPI, and EPI counterclaims EUR 425 million from Airbus. The overall program’s limbo has had a predictably chilling effect on settling this issue.

Former Europrop EVP Jacques Desclaux, who left in January 2011, says the firm is already working according to the broad terms of the OCCAR-Airbus agreement, and believes the OCCAR deal will finalize “within a few weeks.” Meanwhile, engine FADEC software is now flying on 2 of the 4 development aircraft, with software and A400M civil certification planned for the end of 2011. European Aviation Safety Agency engine certification wasn’t really set up for turboprops, just turbofan jets. EASA certification is expected soon, however, and initial production deliveries of the 11,000 shp engines are expected to start in April 2012, with 8 (2 aircraft sets) delivered by the end of 2012, and 16 by the end of 2013. Production won’t really take off until 2014, in part as a result of lessons from the A380 to go slow and incorporate changes that emerge from testing.

Desclaux does say that in at least one instance, debris ingestion during a test of unprepared/rough runway performance forced a safe shutdown, without internal failures in the engine, and subsequent engine removal. That’s not alarming, but it is a good example. The A400M is supposed to handle those conditions, and depending on what engineers find, there could be design changes.

March 9/11: ELF payments. France pays EUR 417 million into the Export Levy Facility, as its share of the EUR 1.5 billion total. The money will be paid back as (or rather, if) the plane reaches specific export targets outside the consortium.

Meanwhile, consortium member Belgium has paid EUR 200 million to Airbus so far, of its EUR 891 million bill for 7 A400Ms to replace its current fleet of 11 C-130s. L’Express | Belgium’s 7 Sur 7.

March 9/11: Leadership. EADS announces that the first 4 production (non-test) A400Ms will be produced in 2012, adding that the production rate will gradually be ramped up to 2.5 aircraft per month by the end of 2015.

They are also replacing program head Rafael Tentor, who has led the programme for the last 4 years, with EADS Sogerm President & CEO Cedric Gautier. Tentor will in turn take over all other Airbus Military programs, covering the C212/ CN235/ C295, as well as the A330 MRTT and all other tanker conversions.

March 7/11: Reports surface that last-minute negotiations with Britain and Turkey have prevented the A400M consortium deal from unraveling, but as of March 9/11, A400M production is restarting without agreement from those 2 countries. Defense News | Reuters.

March 3/11: Testing. Airbus Military has successfully completed the number of required simulated flight-cycles on a full scale test airframe to achieve European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) civil type certification for the A400M.

The MSN5001 test specimen at Dresden has undergone 1,665 cycles, about 5 times the maximum number of flights expected to be recorded annually by each A400M in service. By mid-2012, 25,000 simulated flights will be performed – about 2.5 times the A400M’s design-life. See also Jan 18/11 entry. Airbus Military.

Cold weather

Feb 8/11: Testing. The A400M does initial cold weather trials in Kiruna, Sweden, accompanied by an Airbus A340-300 carrying support equipment and the test team. It will experience further cold weather testing in Kiruna and at other locations this winter and next. Flight International.

Jan 25/11: 40 for Germany? The governing German Free Democrats’ deputy caucus leader, Juergen Koppelin, says that Germany will stick to its pledge of 53 A400Ms plus 7 options. On the other hand, the options are dead, and Germany now plans to retain a fleet of only 40, and resell 13 on the global market. AP | Defense News.

Jan 20/11: Training. CAE announces a contract from Airbus Military to design and manufacture an A400M cockpit maintenance operation simulator (CMOS) based on CAE Simfinity virtual maintenance trainer (VMT) technology, to support maintenance technician training. The training device will feature virtual displays of the A400M aircraft, cockpit and maintenance accessible areas to provide familiarization, troubleshooting and procedural training for maintenance technicians.

The A400M CMOS will be and will be delivered to the Airbus Military training centre in Seville, Spain in 2012. The base contract includes options for CAE to develop additional A400M CMOS devices, as well as other A400M training systems for maintenance technicians. The contract’s value is cloaked by its presence within a scattershot set of announcements worth a total of “more than $140 million.”

Jan 20/11: Germany. Lawmakers from Germany’s Free Democratic Party symbolically delay their approval of Germany’s EUR 500 million share of the A400M loan agreement. German approval is seen as the last hurdle to signing the program’s contract changes. The vote is now on the Budget Committee’s agenda for next week, where it is expected to pass. Bloomberg.

Jan 18/11: Testing. Airbus Military announces that:

“Major fatigue testing of the Airbus Military A400M has begun on schedule in Dresden in January (see attached photos). The test airframe, known as MSN5001, will be subjected to a punishing regime of loads, 24 hours per day, for an initial four weeks, eventually simulating 160 flights per day. The first 1,665 simulated flights are required for European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) type certification of the A400M, but over the next 18 months a total of 25,000 simulated flights will be performed – equating to 2.5 times the A400M´s design-life. Static testing of another A400M test airframe, MSN5000 was completed in Madrid in September 2010. That airframe continues to be used for further fatigue tests of composite structures which will last until early 2012.”

Jan 12/11: A400M series production restarts, as EADS lifts its suspension. EADS CEO Louis Gallois says the firm still believes there will be global demand for 400-500 A400Ms, but added that EADS will not mount an export sales campaign until the A400M is flying with the launch customers. EADS plans to deliver the first A400M in Q1 2013, which means the decision will give competitors like the C-130J and KC-390 a substantial window of opportunity. Defense News.

Re-start

2010

Re-negotiated contract is the year’s big focus, and event; South Africa cancellation still at loose ends; CEO jumps from A400M. No pressure…
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Dec 20/10: Testing. “Grizzly 4” makes its first flight, and the fleet of A400M development aircraft completes just over 1,000 hours flight-time and 300 flights n 2010. The overall flight test program will include 5 aircraft and over 3,700 flight hours. Airbus Military

Nov 13/10: CEO jump. A 10-man team of project staff jumps from A400M “Grizzly 3’s” ramp over the La Juliana drop-zone near Seville, Spain. Talk about pressure: it includes Airbus President and CEO Tom Enders, and OCCAR’s A400M Programme Manager Bruno Delannoy. Both men are experienced skydivers, and the team of 10 had 35,000 previous descents between them.

A stunt? A lark? Both – but also a compelling and dead-serious way of putting oneself behind the company/ team’s products, so soon after the very 1st jump. Color us impressed. Airbus Military.

Nov 12/10: Malaysia. Malaysia’s official Bernama press agency reports that Malaysia remains committed to its order for 4 Airbus A400Ms, adding that “It was reported last year that Malaysia, which would receive the planes in 2013, would not have to fork out extra money for the four air-lifters it ordered in 2005.”

A400M flight-test
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Nov 5/10: A contract at last. An agreement was signed March 5/10, but that wasn’t a contract, and some details remained. The terms of the finalized negotiations with OCCAR and the 7 A400M launch customer nations (Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Spain, Turkey) are mostly the same as the March 5/10 announcement: Another EUR 2 billion for system design & development, EUR 1.5 billion repayable pending exports, accelerated pre-delivery payments from 2010-2014, and a EUR 1.8 billion FY 2009 write-down that turns EADS’ income negative for that year.

Britain has reduced its order from 25 to 22 planes, and there were rumors that Germany would drop its order from 60 to 53, losing a total of 10 confirmed orders. Later reports indicate that the final agreement converted those 7 German and 3 British planes into options instead, which is much the same thing. It also reportedly removed automated low-level flight technology, allowing Germany to save EUR 670 million (about $940 million). The remaining sticking point remains the timing of those accelerated payments, which will now be negotiated in a contract amendment. EADS | Bloomberg BusinessWeek | Reuters India.

New contract

Nov 4/10: Testing. “Grizzly 3” is used for the A400M’s first paradrop, as 6 freefall paratroopers from the UK armed forces (2), French armed forces (2), and the French Centre d’Essais en Vol (2) jump in separate passes from 6,000 feet, at the Fonsorbes drop zone near Toulouse, France. Four of them jumped from the left-hand side door, and two from the ramp.

The paratroopers reportedly liked the A400M as a jumping platform. That may be related to the plane’s low 110 kt/ 203 kmh stable air speed, and also to a pair of small deflectors installed ahead of the side door, after previous tests with balloons and dummies noted turbulence and noise problems inside. Airbus Military | Flight International.

Aug 4/10: Testing. Airbus Military announces that the A400M’s all-composite wing has passed stress tests that subjected the design to 150% of the maximum bending load expected during the type’s operational life, which moved the aircraft’s wingtips upwards by 1.41m/ 4.6 feet. Airbus Military | Flight International.

July 29/10: Program update. During an investors’ briefing, EADS reports a more than 50% decrease in profit in first half underlying earnings compared to 2009, “weighed down mainly by exceptional negative foreign exchange impacts.” They also had this to say:

“The percentage of completion methodology was resumed on the A400M programme. In the second quarter, based on the allocation of internal milestones, around [EUR] 300 million in revenues were booked on the programme. Customer Nations and EADS continue working towards a contract amendment. In the meantime, the A400M flight test programme is progressing better than expected; however, the development of the Flight Management System is on the critical path, with more challenges than expected. Risk mitigation actions are being undertaken. Management assumptions of March 2010 underpinning the A400M provision calculation remain valid. As previously indicated, reassessment of these assumptions could have a significant impact on future results. “

See EADS | Defense News.

July 19/10: A400M-T Grizzly. The A400M gets a name: “A400M Grizzly,” after the North American bear. The name has been in unofficial use by the aircraft’s flight test crew for some time. “Atlas” was one of the more commonly-floated alternatives. Slyer suggestions included “Airavata,” the name of the Indian deity Indra’s white elephant. Technically, this designation applies only to the 5-plane test aircraft fleet. Airbus Military had this to say:

“The new name is not the product of an expensive marketing study, nor something devised by a team of branding experts, nor the result of months of debate among the sales team. Instead it is the affectionate nickname given to the aircraft by the close-knit group of flight test pilots and engineers who first saw it safely into the air… The Flight Test Team seized on the resemblance between the mighty airlifter’s hunched appearance and the muscular shoulders of the grizzly bear… By the time of the first flight on 11th December, the name had stuck sufficiently firmly that it was adopted as the aircraft’s radio callsign – Grizzly One.

Furthermore, a little-known fact is that the first flight also carried a party of non-human passengers – teddy bears to raise funds for the EADS-sponsored charity Aviation Without Borders – a nice reminder of the Grizzly’s future role in civic and humanitarian missions. The name rapidly spread throughout Airbus Military and beyond, and at the ILA Berlin airshow in June 2010 an informal Grizzly One logo appeared on MSN1 when it made its first public airshow appearance.”

July 11/10: South Africa. South Africa canceled its 8-plane order in November 2009, but the exact terms must be negotiated. A January 2010 deadline has passed, and the South African government has put Airbus on legal notice to recover its deposit. Airbus Military has already canceled one of South African A400M supplier orders (to Denel Saab Aerostructures) and expressed its intent to cancel its other orders and industrial offset investments without South African orders. It has also reportedly made an offer to supply 4 A400Ms at ZAR 4.3 billion (about $570 million), without the first 2 years’ maintenance costs, with credit given for South Africa’s ZAR 2.9 billion deposit. IOL.

July 7/10: Germany. Germany is reportedly considering dropping its A400M orders from 60 to 53, and taking 15 of its aged 83-plane C160 transport fleet out of service, as part of EUR 9 billion in long term cuts. That could be challenging, as the new agreement allows for a 10-plane cut, and Germany and Britain together would take up all 10. That may create resistance, if partners like Spain also wish to cut their orders. Reuters.

July 7/10: France. A parliamentary defense committee hearing gets initial details from defense minister Herve Morin re: future programs. Morin said that the French A400M orders would go ahead as planned, as would its Barracuda nuclear-powered fast attack submarine, Felin advanced infantry set, FREMM multimission frigate, Rafale fighter and VBCI armored vehicle.

Plans to field 14 new A330 MRTTs to replace France’s C-135FR aerial tankers would be delayed, and so would a EUR 700 million life extension and air defense upgrade for France’s Mirage 2000D strike aircraft, a major upgrade to the national airspace command-and-control system, and elements of the Scorpion land systems modernization program. Defense News.

July 7/10: Testing. Test aircraft MSN 3 makes its first flight, joining MSN 1 & 2 in the air at the same time. The fleet passes the milestone of 100 test flights and 400 flight hours. Airbus Military.

June 8/10: 1st public flight. As ILA 2010 kicks off in Berlin, the A400M made its first public flight – but German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg chose not to attend. Bloomberg reports that despite the March 2010 financing agreement:

“Since then, the two sides have failed to produce a written contract, as European states grapple with the fallout from deficit crises gripping the region… [The agreement] allowed the ordering countries to cut the total number of planes by 10. The U.K. took up the offer first, saying it would take as many as three fewer A400Ms. Germany has also said it will likely take fewer than 60 units. Negotiations remain difficult because of the number of countries involved and the challenging economic climate, Domingo Urena, who heads Airbus Military, said at the show today. Urena oversees the A400M, the A330 tanker and smaller transport planes. “I cannot deny that the economic situation is making things more difficult,” he said.”

See also OCCAR pictures and video of the flight demonstration.

March 29/10: UK. The UK MoD announces that its still in the A400M program, but may be buying fewer aircraft than the 25 originally planned:

“…Following discussions between Partner Nations and Airbus Military, an agreement in principle has been reached… which will provide the basis for a formal contract amendment in the coming months. Under the revised agreement, Airbus Military will deliver at least 22 aircraft.”

Though this is not yet set in stone, Aviation Week wonders about Germany in particular as it asks: “Who Will Cut A400M Next??”

March 24/10: France. French DGA head Laurent Collet-Billon tells a French parliamentary defense committee that the A400M contract is expected to be finalized in June 2010. The 10% increase in cost per aircraft can be handled within existing budgets, but France’s EUR 400 million contribution to the export levy will come from the general budget, appearing after 2020 and being staggered over several years. Exact numbers won’t be clear until the 2010 -2014 payment plan becomes clear.

In order to keep the base program within France’s budgets, delivery delays mean that the Armée de l’Air will have just 35 A400Ms by 2020. Meanwhile, its 51 Transall C-160s, 14 C-130Hs and 19 Casa CN-235s can only meet 25% of the freight target set by France’s most recent defense white paper.

France is in talks with Britain and Spain on a common A400M maintenance program, but Germany has opted to go its own way. Defense News.

March 12/10: Marketing. Airbus says that it expects production of the A400M’s limited operational configuration to begin in 2010.

It also has visions of selling 210 A400Ms to the US government, despite the now-entrenched position of Lockheed Martin’s C-130J in the USAF and SOCOM fleets, and the object lesson of being shoved out of the KC-X aerial tanker competition. Associated Press | Dow Jones | Business Week

March 10/10: Testing. A400M MSN1 performs a test flight from Seville, Spain, then flies on to Toulouse, France for further testing. The humidity associated with Seville’s recent weather had been affecting the instrumentation on the turboprop blades.

So far, MSN1 has logged 39 flight hours, flying up to 30,000 feet and reaching its maximum operating speed of 300 knots (555 km/h) and Mach 0.72, and down to its stall warning speed. MSN2 has been handed over for flight tests with the same heavy test instrumentation as MSN1; MSN3 is in production ground tests, and is slated for flight testing with medium instrumentation in mid-2010; and MSN4 is in final assembly and scheduled to begin flights with medium instrumentation by the end of 2010. The 5th aircraft, MSN6, will be the first built to production standards, and fitted with light instrumentation. Airbus Military release.

March 6/10: MSN2. Test aircraft MSN2 is handed over. Source.

A400M: timely aid
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March 5/10: Negotiations – initial agreement. EADS officially announces that an agreement has been struck to continue the A400M program. Governments will add an additional EUR 2 billion in funds, and EUR 1.5 billion in loans that would be repaid as exports are booked – and presumably not repaid if exports flop. In addition, the agreement waives all late penalties, and will accelerate pre-delivery payments from 2010-2014 – a form of stealth contribution due to net present value considerations, whose exact amount have not been finalized. Formal approval by European defense ministers is expected March 8/10.

The A400M will also enter service with reduced capabilities. Cargo capacity will go down by “several hundred kilograms,” but the Germans will not budge on their insistence that the A400M be able to transport their 31.45t/ 34.667-ton Puma IFVs in Class A armor configuration. They have reportedly relented on their unique requirement for a sensor-coupled autopilot system that would handle the dangerous task of very low-level flying, in order to assist with special forces insertions and remain below hostile radars. The A400M’s air-air refueling capabilities have not been scrapped, but they have reportedly been pushed back to a future upgrade.

In response to the deal, EADS is raising its FY 2009 loss provisions for the A400M to EUR 1.8 billion pre-tax, turning its EBIT and net income negative. EADS’ 15% shareholder Daimler AG may also face a writedown, in Q1 2010. Exact results will be released at EADS’ Full Year 2009 disclosure on March 9/10, but this addition to previous write-downs would reportedly push EADS’ realized losses to EUR 4.2 billion.

As an additional industrial twist, Reuters reports that Spain has submitted a written proposal to relocate jobs, tools and machinery from Filton, UK to the final assembly site at Seville, Spain, if Britain weakens its purchase commitment in the next defense review, or balks over its share of additional costs in the re-negotiated agreement. Britain has yet to agree on what form its extra financial commitment should take. The key manufacturing obstacle would involve transferring Filton’s massive jigs that hold the wings in place. There are reports that Spain’s government, already hurting from Greek-level annual deficits and depression-level unemployment, would pay for their disassembly and transport. EADS release | French DGA [in French] | AP | AP re: capabilities reduced | Aviation Week | BusinessWeek | UK’s Daily Telegraph | Defense News | Deutsche Welle | Flight International | Sweden’s The Local | NY Times | Reuters | Reuters re: Spain vs. UK | Seattle Post-Intelligencer | Wall St. Journal | WSJ re: Daimler.

Feb 15/10: Negotiations. EADS receives a new offer from the A400M’s 7 member governments. There are reports that it includes another EUR 1.5 billion in loan guarantees and EUR 2 billion in additional payments, which falls short of the EUR 4.4 billion in additional government costs that EADS had sought. At the same time, the German government has been forced to deny reports that it would tap guarantees from the Deutschland Fund state aid pool and loans from the KfW state development bank, in order to make its contribution.

Financial Times Deutschland reported that options on the table from Airbus’ end may include a stripped-down initial version of the A400M that seeks only civil certification, with subsequent upgrades to the full military version.

EADS spokesman Alexander Reinhardt says the company is now studying the offer and “we will answer it in due time.” EADS has said it needs a decision so it can book its share of the cost overruns in its 2009 financial results to be released on March 9/10, rather than carrying them over into 2010. AP | Aviation Week Ares | Bloomberg | Capital Business | Defense News | New York Times | Reuters | Straits Times.

Jan 1-7/10: Negotiations. Airbus spokesperson Stefan Schaffrath admits that a cancellation of the A400M project has become a realistic scenario, and appeals to customer nations to reach a financing agreement by the end of January 2010. Defense representatives of the 7 European partner governments are expected to meet on Jan 14/10, in order to discuss this issue.

Reports also surface in newspapers like Financial Times Deutschland that cost overruns are now estimated at up to EUR 11.3 billion total over the original EUR 20 billion program cost, with EUR 5.3 billion (currently about $7.62 billion) sought as additional customer funding. While various unions are lobbying their member governments to keep the program, reports indicate that Airbus may be offered less than this amount, and Airbus head Thomas Enders reportedly sees odds of an agreement as only 50-50. He has recommended sacrificing the A400M if continuing it will continue to hurt Airbus’ profitable civilian aircraft business, by bleeding its available cash and engineering talent. More to the point, Airbus spokesman Schaffrath confirms that Airbus has developed detailed plans to move all of the A400M program’s engineers to important civilian projects like the A350XWB.

On the flip side, Airbus would have to repay EUR 5.7 billion in development funding, over and above losses already taken. The additional financial impact would be that payout, minus any future loses the company would avoid by canceling the project. If European governments decide to lowball EADS, therefore, it’s likely to be finely calculated to have EADS lose just a bit less than it would lose under a contractor cancellation scenario. With estimates of up to 40,000 direct and indirect jobs depending on the program in Europe and the UK, however, and European prestige on the line, Airbus has some leverage of its own in these negotiations. Financial Times Deutschland [in German] | Agence France Presse | AP re: SAS union | Bloomberg | Der Spiegel | Deutsche Welle | UK Financial Times | Handelsblatt [ in German] | UK’s The Independent | Reuters | UK’s Telegraph | UK’s Times Online. See also Leeham News: “Outlook for Airbus, Boeing in 2010“.

2009

Maiden flight; South Africa cancels order; Negotiations over core country contracts, as French Senat examines what went wrong and EADS takes a big writedown. Cue Violins…
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Dec 11/09: The A400M performs a 3:47 maiden flight, following its take-off from Seville, Spain at 10:15 local time. Airbus Military said that aircraft MSN 1 and its 4 Europrop International TP400D turboprop engines performed as expected. For its first flight, the aircraft took off at a weight of 127 tonnes (metric tons, about 280,000 pounds) rather than its maximum take-off weight of 141 tonnes, carrying 15 tonnes of test equipment that included 2 tonnes of water ballast. A 6-man crew explored the aircraft’s flight envelope within a wide speed range, and tested lowering and raising of the landing gear and high-lift devices at altitude.

MSN1 takes off
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In the first half of 2010, MSN 1 will be joined by MSN 2 and MSN 3. they will be followed by MSN 4 by the end of 2010, and a 5th aircraft in 2011. This fleet will be used for some 3,700 hours of test-flying before the first production A400M delivery to the French Air Force at the end of 2012, then used for additional military development flying. At least, that’s the hope. After reports that the project faces over EUR 5.3 billion in production cost overruns, Airbus CEO Tom Enders reminded reporters that current financing arrangements for A400M development do not work, and some rather large issues remain to be solved:

“I hope we can soon provide certainty that we are able to continue the A400M programme. This is expected by those at Airbus, our partners and suppliers worldwide who contributed so strongly to today’s success as well as by the air forces who wait for their plane.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel added emphasis to this point, when she said in a Dec 11/09 speech that the flight was good news and that Europe needed a new transport, but added that they could not afford to wait forever for it. Stamford, CT’s Hexcel Corp., which produces composite structures for the A400M, saw the day as unalloyed good news, as its shares jumped on news of the first flight. Airbus military release | Agence France Presse | Barcelona Reporter [incl. video] | Bloomberg | Deutsche Welle | UK’s Financial Times | London Free Press | NY Times | Reuters re: program audit | Reuters re: Merkel | Reuters re: German order | Seattle Post-Intelligencer | UK’s Telegraph | Connecticut Post.

1st flight

Dec 2/09: Negotiations. Officials from the 7 European governments that launched the troubled A400M military transport plane met to try to overcome the program’s contract deadlock. Despite reports that EADS is consideration cancellation of the aircraft, EADS CEO Louis Gallois says that there is no “Plan B”. Meanwhile, the 7 European countries involved in the program will create a panel of industry experts with members from each contract country, in order to advise them as they work toward a new contract. Forbes | NY Times | Reuters | UPI | Wall Street Journal.

Nov 25/09: Negotiations. EADS issues a release that reiterates the Nov 16/09 statement, and:

“…explicitly cautions against the misinterpretation of figures taken out of their context as long as negotiations with the customer OCCAR and the launch nations are ongoing.”

Nov 18/09: Engines. Airbus starts the A400M’s engines at its Seville, Spain facility using the built-in Auxiliary Power Unit instead of external sources, and runs all 4 Europrop International (EPI) TP400 engines on a production aircraft. This is a first for the program, and follows dry and wet cranking the propellers, and tests of the APU.

The engines on aircraft MSN01 were successfully run at low power settings in ground-idle and flight-idle modes for 4 hours. After the first full run, during which the engines performed flawlessly, the engine cowls were opened and inspections showed that there had been no hot-air or fluid leaks. Tests running the engines up to maximum take-off power are planned soon, in line with promises that the aircraft’s first flight would occur by the end of 2009. Airbus Military release.

Nov 16/09: Negotiations. An EADS disclosure statement says that:

“Under a continuation scenario, which is deemed the most probable, the A400M provision for which [EUR] 2.4 billion in charges have already been accrued has a wide range of possible outcomes depending on the negotiation process and could substantially alter the financial statements of EADS in the future.”

Nov 6/09: Agence France Presse reports that Malaysia still intends to remain a customer, but delivery will be delayed by at least 3 years to 2016 or even 2017.

Nov 5/09: SAAF cancels. South Africa announces that it is canceling its A400M contract, and seeking R2.9 billion (about $380 million/ EUR 256 million) in returned payments. Read “South Africa to Cancel its A400M Order” for more.

Oct 8/09: South Africa. Airbus Military Sociedad Limitada says that there will be minimal degradation to the aircraft technical baseline, but confirms a 4-year delay to the South African A400M order, which could extend to 5 years depending on the Test Flight Programme results. South Africa’s Minister of Defence and Military Veterans adds that:

“It was during this interaction that it became clear that the acquisition costs will increase by more than 25% and another 15 – 20% increase to the initial logistic package which translates to an overall programme cost increase to over R 30 billion [DID: $3.955 billion on this date, almost $495 million per plane] by the time we take delivery of the first aircraft.”

South Africa cancels

Sept 25/09: Negotiations. Aviation Week reports that Airbus has come to an agreement in principle with A400M launch customers to restructure the contract for the airlifter, and is keeping to its objective of performing a first flight in 2009.

Aug 28/09: South Africa. Denel Saab Aerostructures is one of the partner firms being hurt by A400M program delays. South Africa’s Engineering News quotes Denel Saab Aerostructures (DSA) CEO Lana Kinley:

“This is a high fixed costs business… You need to bring in revenue. We are not doing particularly well at the moment. Essentially, it is all about getting more order cover. “The A400M delays have created a big hole in our work. We expected to be in production by now, and we’re not. We’re still doing design work on the A400M.”

July 28/09: $$$. EADS announces its first half 2009 results. On the bright side, the 1st A400M development aircraft is being prepared for engine fitting, the 2nd aircraft is assembled and has entered systems testing, and final assembly has begun for the 3rd. The C-130 flying test bed for the Europrop engine has successfully performed 12 flights with more than 35 flight hours, and a first version of the revised engine software FADEC is showing good initial results in testing.

On the flip side, EADS is taking further writedowns related to the A400M project (all Euro symbols replaced by EUR):

“Due to the continuing high level of uncertainty on the programme, EADS retained the early stage accounting treatment of this programme

• . This resulted in an EBIT* impact of EUR -191 million for the first six months… -120 million taken in the first quarter. Substantial negative income statement impacts may still have to be booked in future periods… Airbus Military revenues accounted for EUR 855 million (H1 2008: EUR 898 million) of the Airbus total benefiting from an increase in tanker as well as medium and light activities. This was more than offset by the difference between the absence of the Power On Milestone – booked in the first quarter of the previous year – and the revenues booked as the recoverable part of the A400M costs. Accordingly, EBIT* stood at EUR -36 million (H1 2008: EUR -20 million).”

See: EADS: First Half 2009 results | EADS release.

July 27/09: $$$. Thales Group announces a EUR 102 million write-down connected to the A400M project, and says that it will seek compensation from Airbus for the project’s delays. Thales makes the A400M’s avionics and flight management system.

The firm actually caught both barrels in this financial report, as Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner delays also delivered a blow to their profitability. Thales: First Half 2009 Results | Reuters | London Telegraph

July 24/09: Negotiations. The A400M partner nations relax the negotiation timeline, and move the decision back from end of July to the end of December 2009. Britain’s change of mind is key to that agreement, and is partly influenced by a major “root and branch” review planned for all defense programs. That review could not possibly be complete by the end of July, and a first draft is due in early 2010. That fits far better with the proposed French and German end of 2009 timeline. Agence France Presse | BBC | BBC re: UK defence review | Deutsche Welle | NY Times | Seattle Post-Intelligencer. EADS release.

Final design?
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June 22/09: Negotiations. The Ministers of Defence of the 7 program partner nations (Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Luxemburg, Spain, Turkey) met to receive and analyze the “Group of Experts” report analyzing the A400M program and its way forward. The official release notes that:

“A number of issues still need to be resolved, before a negotiation phase can be entered. Therefore, in order to ensure ourselves that the conditions offered by industry fully satisfy the Nations, it has been decided to allow, in agreement with industry, an extension to the standstill period, with a decision being taken by Partner Nations by the end of July.”

Defense-Aerospace reports that France and Germany had been pressing for an extension of the moratorium period to the end of 2009, but Britain vetoed that proposal. In the end, the moratorium was extended only to the end of July 2009. A technical committee will now examine all aspects of the aircraft’s production plans, which will lay the groundwork for key decisions, and re-negotiation on production, delivery and financial schedules. Defense-Aerospace | Joint A400M partners release: PDF format [in English] Spanish Ministry of Defense [in Spanish].

June 13/09: Negotiations. Defense-Aerospace reports on a Le Bourget 2009 briefing by EADS CEO Louis Gallois, Airbus CEO Tom Enders, and other EADS executive. Gallois said that EADS has already spent all EUR 5.7 billion in A400M development funds, and has lost EUR 2.8 billion on the initial contract for 180 aircraft, with an ongoing burn rate of “over 100 million euros” of its own money every month.

EADS is reportedly betting on future exports beyond the initial European nations, in order to justify the program. EADS North America CEO Ralph Crosby reportedly confirmed that the A400M had been offered to the US Air Force, though those rumors were mostly tied to a special operations contract won by the MC-130J Super Hercules.

Operationally, EADS has launched an initiative, overseen by Airbus COO Fabrice Bregier, to enhance program management throughout the group. The A400M’s first flight is tentatively scheduled for late December 2009, but could slip slightly into early January 2010. EADS CEO Louis Gallois hopes that can coincide with the end of contract re-negotiations. He adds that Britain is taking part, saying:

“We need the UK, we want to have the UK with us… but I don’t think it would kill the contract if the UK withdrew.”

June 5-15/09: France. With a fleet of aging C-160 and Lockheed Martin C-130H tactical transports that continue to see heavy demand, France is looking at the one option its government had said would not be considered. French Defense Minister Herve Morin is quoted as saying that the government has expanded its stopgap options to include lease or purchase of some C-130Js; and Bloomberg reports that France has officially requested C-130J availability and performance data for review. France has also approved the modernization of its 10 newest C160 Transalls so they can remain in service until the first A400Ms arrive, which is now expected to happen in 2014-15.

Other possibilities for France include stepped up per-hour leasing of Russian AN-124s under NATO’s SALIS pool, per-hour C-17 leasing under NATO’s SAC pool, acquisition or lease of EADS’ smaller C-295Ms, or advancing their planned Airbus 330 MRTT aerial tanker & transport buy.

These interim options group themselves by tradeoffs. Some contenders (C-295M, A330 MRTT) lack the reinforced floors required for dense tactical loads like armored vehicles. Others (AN-124, A330 MRTT, C-17s to lesser extent) require longer runways, which removes some of their utility as front line delivery aircraft. Range and refueling capability are potential issues for some (C-295M, some C-130Js), while maintaining overall fleet strength and front line airlift availability is a concern in other cases (AN-124, C-17, A330 MRTT to some extent). The C-130J offers less capability than the A400M, but it sits in the middle of many of these tradeoffs, which may be why it has climbed back into interim consideration. Aviation Week | Bloomberg News.

A400M wing cover
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March 30/09: Negotiations. Airbus CEO Thomas Enders sits down for a feisty interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel, and talks about the A400M. The firm later issues a release reiterating its commitment to the A400M, which is obvious from reading the interview but bears repeating in these situations. Key excerpts:

“Objection! If we can manage to get the program back on course now, the A400M will be a success story. That is what we want — but not at any price. In any case, we cannot build the plane under the conditions that we’ve had up to date… Our American competitors would never have accepted such conditions. We’ve made big mistakes, and errors have also been made on the customer side. We should now rectify these together.

…We submitted a few proposals back in December. This basically concerns three issues. First, …the risks and opportunities are appropriately shared by the customer and the industry… Airbus will no longer carry the risks alone of engineering the engine… Engineering, flight tests and the start of production have to be optimized… to minimize the risks of series production. And third, studies need to be conducted… It could save everyone a great deal of time if [some promised capabilities] were only introduced step by step…”

Enders also stresses the “enormous financial and industrial challenges” presented by the A350 XWB and A380 super-jumbo programs, as a key consideration when deciding how much A400M program risk Airbus is willing to accept. Full Der Spiegel interview | EADS release.

March 17/09: France. Laurent Collet-Billon, the DGA’s recently appointed Director General, says that France is looking at the possibility of leasing or buying alternative transport aircraft to meet the shortfalls created by late A400M delivery. The DGA is also contemplating refusing at least some of the late A400M aircraft. Collet-Billon:

“It is one of the alternatives which we have to examine. We have not yet finished examining the capacity gap and that could lead to a reduction in the target (of 50 aircraft).”

That is partly because France has multi-year military budgets, so paying for bridging capabilities means subtracting money from something else. While Lockheed Martin’s C-130J is completely ruled out as a bridging solution, France does have options that include buying more flight hours of Russian AN-124s and IL-76s under NATO’s SALIS program, joining NATO’s SAC pool of C-17s, or accelerating buys of Airbus tanker-transport aircraft to pick up some of the load.

Meanwhile, a 3-month program moratorium imposed by OCCAR will allow all parties re-visit the technical specifications, the schedule, price, and project organization. Reuters | Aviation Week.

March 5/09: UK. Britain’s RAF is under strain, trying to sustain an aerial supply bridge for 8,000 deployed troops in Afghanistan. With its 20 C-130Ks (C1/C3) being forced toward retirement, Aviation Week reports that Britain is looking at the possibility of leasing 5 C-130Js as a potential “bridge” until the A400Ms can begin to arrive, and/or finding ways to add to their 6-plane C-17 fleet [DID: Britain ended up buying 2 more C-17s, and cut its A400M order by 3].

Senior British Defense Ministry officials are believed to have met on March 4/09 to examine proposals for the ministry’s next “Planning Round 09.” Airlift and budget issues would have been prominent within those discussions.

Feb 10/09: French Senat report. France’s Sénat release a full report [in French] detailing their investigation into the A400M program, and their recommendations. They recommend that the EUR 20 billion euro contract be renegotiated, in order to preserve a program they see as critical to Europe’s aerospace industry. They also cite life expectancy issues with France’s current C160 Transall fleet, and reveal that the A400M faces a number of challenges which have not previously been made public.

The report faults EADS for failure to grasp the project’s complexity. It faults participating governments for rushing into a program whose structure made failure likely; and for relying on the EU’s OCCAR for oversight it lacked the authority or resources to perform, instead of appointing one of their national procurement agencies to lead the project. France’s own DGA has performed this role for other multi-national projects, notably the stealthy nEUROn UCAV.

With respect to the A400M program’s problems, blame is cast widely, but the core problem is identified as the 2001 contract, which was amended in 2003. The Senat report believes that the A400M program was almost guaranteed to fail, thanks to its call for simultaneous development of a new airframe, a new engine and new avionics; without the EUR 500 million risk reduction studies recommended by industry; and with tight timelines that left no allowance for delays. French Senat report [HTML, in French] | French Sénat Report [PDF, in French] | Defense-Aerospace highlights [English].

Senat report

Feb 9/09: Negotiations. Britain’s Financial Times reports a “major row” over the integration of Airbus Military in Spain, and the parent company’s efforts to bring the A400M project under direct control. It adds that “There have been mounting tensions between Tom Enders, Airbus chief executive, and Carlos Suarez, head of the military division,” and hints at accompanying national political complications. Mr. Enders declined comment when asked about this, but the Financial Times article also quotes an EADS statement:

“EADS is not aware of any political issues with the Spanish government over the integration of the military division. Carlos Suarez is still fully in charge. We are still in the process of integrating our military division into Airbus.”

Meanwhile, Reuters UK reports that first delivery will not happen before the end of 2012, and quotes a report from Le Figaro that places the expected overall cost to Airbus at EUR 5 billion total (about $6.45 billion). It could be higher, according to French Senator Jean-Pierre Masseret, who notes that the terms of the initial contract contain a release clause that allows the governments to pull out if the plane hasn’t flown 14 months after a stipulated milestone. EADS’ reported plans for first flight in 2010 would miss that April 2009 deadline.

France’s Sénat is issuing a report which argues that the program is critical to Europe’s aerospace industry. That argument is likely to fly with major customers like France, Germany, and Spain, though it offers a strong opportunity for expanding NATO’s SAC C-17 pool as a interim step. It may carry less weight with customers like Britain, however, who already fly their own C-17As and competing C-130J-30 Hercules, and who might see a contractual exit as a cost-savings measure. Financial Times | CNN | Reuters UK | EADS general release re: A400M program.

Jan 24/09: Negotiations. An EADS release formally denies any intent to withdraw from the A400M program.

Jan 14/09: Defense Aerospace’s “EADS Draws Battle Lines for A400M Negotiations” discusses key elements of the firm’s position, based on statements made during EADS annual press conference. Referring to John Hutton’s statements, EADS CEO Louis Gallois states that:

“We share his frustration… We signed the contract, and have our share of responsibility, but we were not alone to have underestimated the program… [the governments and EADS] thought [the A400M] was a flying truck, but in fact it is a civil aircraft certified by civil aviation authorities and a military aircraft, with full military capabilities… it is more complex than Rafale or Eurofighter… We have to discuss risk sharing [and a split of costs over expected amounts] with our customers.”

In return for joint sharing of financial consequences, the article also reported that EADS would offer affected governments a partial bridging solution involving other Airbus aircraft. The A330s mentioned could not carry tactical vehicles, but they could serve to ferry personnel long distances.

Jan 12/09: Negotiations. British Defence Secretary John Hutton tells Parliament that:

“We cannot accept a three to four year delay in the delivery of these aircraft. It is going to impose unnecessary and unacceptable strain on our air assets and we, along with all of our partner nations, will have to consider very carefully indeed what the right response now to this problem is as we go forward…”

For Britain, the most likely course of action would involve additions to its fleet of 6 C-17s, involving either additional purchases or participation in NATO’s SAC C-17 pool. A speedup of its FSTA public-private partnership involving 14 Airbus A330 MRTT aerial tanker/transporters is another likely response. Britain also operates Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, however, and could decide to augment that fleet instead if other options prove difficult to execute, or too expensive for its budget. A report in The Guardian quotes Lockheed Martin representatives as saying that the A400M’s delays could spur sales of “dozens more” C-130Js to various nations.

The markets also reacted poorly, as EADS shares fell 5% on the news. Evolution Securities analyst Nick Cunningham is quoted as saying that Airbus could face as much as $6 billion in total cost overruns on the program, a figure that could rise further if the company has to pay damages to customers over the late deliveries. Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch analyst Charles Ermitage estimates that EADS may have to take an additional writedown of EUR 2.6 – 3.9 billion, which produces a figure of EUR 4.3 – 5.6 billion (about $5.8 – 7.5 billion) when added to the EUR 1.7 billion 2008 writedown. Reuters UK | Marketwatch | defpro op-ed and analysis | The Guardian re: Lockheed Martin.

Jan 9/09: A New Deal? Airbus Military and EADS have proposed a new program approach for the A400M, as well as “changes to other areas of the contract including in particular certain technical characteristics…” Outside reports are pointing to likely changes in aircraft rage and lifting capacity. Range has some room for movement, given the plane’s installed mid-air refueling capability. Payload could become very problematic if payload falls below 33 tonnes/ 36 tons, as a number of armored vehicle programs are already in motion that will depend on this capability.

Negotiations are taking place with the respective governments through Europe’s OCCAR joint procurement agency, which manages the A400M program. With respect to costs, Airbus Military and EADS will not commit to figures until a finalized industrial plan, “including the availability of systems,” is complete and OCCAR has reacted to this proposal. EADS also continues its public friction with the Europrop consortium by adding:

“Airbus Military is still working with the engine consortium to firm up a date for the first flight.”

Airbus continues to hold to its position that series production should resume only when “adequate maturity is reached, based on flight test results.” This prevents future contract issues around upgrades of the initial aircraft to production configuration, but delays delivery. Indeed, EADS itself admits that first delivery of the A400M would not occur for 3 years after first flight – a flight that has yet to happen.

The net result of these changes is that the A400M project is effectively in limbo until these issues are resolved. Analysts are beginning to see 2013 as the likely first delivery date, a date that will stress the aging tactical transport fleets of many of the A400M’s partner countries.

2008 and earlier

Airbus Military suspends production over contract dispute; Project delays and cost overruns confirmed. A400M asembly
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Nov 14/08: $$$. EADS releases its Q3 2008 results, which include considerable discussion of the A400M. Key excerpts:

“The pressure on the A400M programme remains… EADS is more determined than ever to get this complex programme under control… In the A400M programme, the unavailability of a committed and reliable schedule for the propulsion system, which compounds unresolved issues with certain equipment supplies as well as equipment and systems integration, will lead to further delays… EADS has started to discuss with its main customers to define next steps. Once a schedule update is achieved, EADS will resume the milestone accounting and further update the A400M charge, for which [EUR] 341 million have been recorded in the third quarter of 2008… [an additional revenue boost of EUR] 803 million resulting from the move to the early stage accounting methodology in the A400M programme applied in Q3 2008… revenues include the A400M Power-On milestone revenue recognition – shifted from 2007 and worth around [EUR] 400 million.”

“As the outcome of the A400M construction contract cannot be estimated reliably, EADS can currently not comply with all requirements to account for the contract under the estimate-at-completion accounting methodology… EADS has suspended the application of estimate at completion methodology accounting [“milestone accounting” for the A400M project] and has then recognised contract costs incurred to date as an expense directly in the income statement as well as corresponding revenues as far as such contract costs incurred are expected to be recoverable under the “early stage” method of accounting. The loss-at-completion provision was then updated only to cover additional losses under the contract which EADS was able to estimate reliably.”

Nov 4/08: Reuters relays a report from the French newspaper Les Echos that Airbus Military has suspended A400M production, and the first flight. A new planning schedule for the project is not expected before December 2008.

At present, 2 planes have been assembled, a 3rd is mostly complete, and some plane sections have been built or are undergoing assembly. The French newspaper quoted a source close to the program, which translates as:

“If the rate isn’t slowed down, the problem is one will end up with lots of aircraft parked up that risk having to be taken back [to fix the issues that one always finds in flight testing].”

See: Les Echos [in French] | De Tijd [in Dutch] | Reuters.

Production suspended

Oct 29/08: Negotiations. In the wake of cabinet approval for France’s 6-year defense planning law, Reuters quotes French defense minister Hervé Morin:

“I told (EADS CEO Louis) Gallois I agreed to look at things with regard to penalties. With the explicit condition that if one day we were ready to close our eyes to a certain number of penalties, EADS commits itself to a precise, firm and definitive delivery date.”

slow starter?
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Sept 25/08: Engines. Safran Group, part of the EuroProp International consortium building the A400M’s TP400-D6 engines, issues a release in response to EADS. It says:

“SAFRAN, along with its partners in EPI, the European consortium in charge of the engines for the A400M military transport, would like to clarify the following points.

1) The eight TP400 turboprop engines for the first two A400M flight test models have been delivered to Airbus Military.

2) The control software for these engines, also covering control of the propeller and the nacelle, which are the responsibility of Airbus Military, are currently in the final phase of compliance with civil aviation standards. However, prior to the first flight of the A400M, this software will integrate adjustments following the completion of engine test flights on a C-130. These tests, which are under the responsibility of Airbus Military, have not yet started; EPI delivered the test engine in late 2007, and received flight readiness approval for the engine and associated software on the C-130 in April 2008.”

Translation: if there are program delays look to EADS Airbus, not EPI.

Sept 25/08: Engines. An EADS release confirms that the A400M’s first flight will be delayed, but will not commit – yet – to early 2009:

“…because of the unavailability of the propulsion system. The first flight actually depends on the results of the test campaign to be done on the flying test bed, which should start in the coming weeks, and on the readiness of the propulsion system. Only after this and further discussions with customers, the financial, technical and schedule implications can be reliably assessed. The 2008 guidance of the group is not changed at this point.”

June 26/08: Rollout. The 1st A400M aircraft test aircraft is rolled out at the final assembly line in Seville, Spain. EADS.

A400M Rollout

Nov 5/07: $$$. EADS announces major financial charges, related to its “reassessment” of A400M delivery delays:

“While the calculations are not yet finalized, EADS now believes it will need to expense between € 1.2 billion and € 1.4 billion, of which more than € 1 billion for Airbus. This estimate is the best that can be established at this point of the programme development, and is consistent with the delays of 6 months, with a risk of a further slippage of up to a half year, that were announced on 17 October 2007. This figure does not include new potential issues… [and] forces EADS to discontinue its EBIT

• guidance for 2007, which will be replaced by an updated guidance on 8 November, along with the disclosure of third quarter earnings.”

April 26-27/07: Delays. A Reuters news agency report quotes an official from A400M supplier Zodiac company as saying that the A400M deliveries will be delayed for 3 months, and may be delayed for 15. EADS responds by citing private decisions within the consortium and says:

“This re-adjustment to the production programme has been undertaken in order to ensure optimum flow-through of assemblies and sub-assemblies to the Final Assembly Line in Seville. The customers were duly informed of the decision and are satisfied that the measures will not affect the aircraft delivery schedule. It is categorically denied that a further twelve months’ delay is or has been contemplated and any such comments by outside parties are speculative and without foundation.”

In light of subsequent events, the kindest thing that can be said about this official statement is that it was mistaken. EADS.

Appendix A – The A400M Program: Dilemmas & a Deal The Dilemmas A350XWB
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Former EADS CEO Louis Gallois has been quoted as saying all expected profits from the initial 180 orders are already invested, adding that the A400M is “a heavy lossmaker” which was creating problems for EADS’ financial performance. He reportedly added in his September 2008 letter that the present position was “untenable”, unless a deal is agreed that “keeps everyone happy.”

That took until November 2010, and involved a production freeze from Airbus along the way. Why were they so willing to confront so many customers over this issue?

Money played a big role, as EADS was facing several major investment sinks. One was the ongoing effort to address issues with its A380 super-jumbo, which had cost the firm billions of euros. Another was the decision to develop the A350XWB as a major new technology project, after existing customers told Airbus that its plan for incremental improvements to existing designs would not be able to compete with Boeing’s 777. Then there’s the market for “single-aisle” airliners like Airbus’ A320 family, which makes up the bulk of Airbus’ orders. With Boeing working on a 737NG project to bring the next generation of aircraft to market in that class, Airbus had to invest billions of its own to create the A320neo, or face the prospect of a serious strategic setback.

The A400M’s issues flew the project directly into this financial storm. Project delays are already costly, and a November 2007 release from EADS reported a EUR 1.2 – 1.4 billion charge to earnings flow (up to $2 billion) as a result of the delays to that point. Payment of the EUR 1.2 billion penalty clauses on its first 180 aircraft would make those figures much worse, and might even have made it impossible for the A400M project to ever hope to turn a profit.

With anticipated A400M profits already invested, every dollar of profitability slashed would have to be replaced with investment dollars, during a major downturn for the airline industry, at a time when multiple investment projects were already straining Airbus’ capacity. All without any assurance that the A400M’s initial margin issues would be made up with enough subsequent orders at full rate to create an acceptable average return.

Worse, Airbus’ classic resort to government subsidies for investment dollars was constrained by a trade dispute with the USA over that exact issue, at a time when a $35 billion aerial tanker contract that Airbus had originally won hung in the balance.

Outright A400M cancellation is not possible without customer unanimity, and that will never be forthcoming. Liquidated damages may be possible for individual governments, however, if they refuse to accept late aircraft. That gave both parties considerable leverage in the run-up to the November 2010 contract.

The Deal A400M for loadmasters
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Under that deal, EADS ended up funding EUR 4.2 billion of the EUR 6.2 billion cost overrun to that point. That meant another EUR 1.8 billion write-down.

In exchange, EADS received 4 concessions that justified resuming production. The 1st was another EUR 2 billion for system design & development funding from the 7 partner nations: Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Spain, and Turkey. Each country would contribute funds in proportion to their number of orders. The 2nd contribution was another EUR 1.5 billion paid to Airbus as an Export Levy Facility quasi-loan, repayable by Airbus Military if the A400M wins enough exports beyond the initial group of 7 partner nations to reach 280-300 aircraft ordered over a 30-year period. To date, existing, potential, and withdrawn A400M customer include:

The 3rd concession involved a new project baseline for deliveries, and a full waiver of the EUR 1.2 billion in late penalties based on the old project baseline. The 4th concession accelerated pre-delivery payments from 2010-2014, in order to help Airbus’ cash flow. The 2012 – 2024 delivery schedule from the revised 2010 agreement is reproduced below:

Overall, A400M deliveries would be an average of 3.5 years late, with an initial plane for France scheduled in March 2013 (it was actually July 2013). Unfortunately, as of 2013, this schedule is already obsolete.

In the 2010 deal, France and Spain initially decided to space the same number of planned aircraft over a longer delivery time. Subsequent budgets indicate further delays in France, and other customers are also looking to delay their deliveries. That will “save” money in a particular budget year, but stretching out production means paying fixed costs over a longer period of time. Which means higher costs per plane, unless additional orders fill out the production line and make up the difference.

Unfortunately, other core customers are making that difficult. In the 2010 deal, Germany and Britain responded to budget pressures by reducing their orders slightly, while remaining within the contract. Their “options” will almost certainly never be exercised, which means a de facto order reduction of 10 planes.

Airbus’ biggest concession was subtle, but its effects could be far-reaching. Its customers are allowed to re-sell their aircraft on the global market.

Additional Readings Background: A400M Program

• Airbus Military – A400M: The Versatile Airlifter

• EuroProp International – Official site for TP400-D6 engine.

• Rolls Royce – TP400-D6

• Reuters – Timeline: Fraught journey of A400M transport aircraft. From 1982 to June 2010.

• Flight International (May 29/12) – IN FOCUS: EPI’s bid to ramp up A400M engine production

• DID – Europe’s Air Transport Command Agreements. The A400M is likely to be heavily involved in this aircraft pool, which may extend to cover maintenance and certification.

• DID Spotlight – SALIS’ Sibling: NATO’s C-17 Pool Inaugurates In-House Heavy Lift. NATO could expand SAC beyond the 3 C-17s.

News and Views

• French Air Force (Sept 26/13) – L’A400M Atlas arrive dans les forces.

• Aviation Week, via WayBack (Feb 3/11) – A400M, KC-390 Will Reshape Transport Market.

• Leeham News and Comment, via WayBack (Jan 4/10) – Outlook for Airbus, Boeing in 2010. Aerospace analysts at Leeham look at a number of programs, including the A400M, and set them in context with respect to the firms’ overall transport/passenger aircraft portfolios.

• Financial Times of London (Sept 21/08) – Berlin snubs EADS plea [subscription req’d]. “The reply from Berlin, which officials said was made after consulting with partner governments including France and the UK, is bad news for Mr Gallois, who has said the A400 will never make a profit under the seven-year-old contract.”.

• Agence France Presse, via WayBack (Sept 20/08) – EADS could freeze A400M production amid late-delivery row.

• Reuters (Sept 20/08) – UPDATE 1-EADS pleads not to be fined for A400M delay -FTD.

• South Africa’s Engineering News (Sept 19/08) – SA aviation company admits to challenges with A400M. Cites weight growth issues, and adds: “South African aircraft components manufacturing and aircraft assembly company Denel Saab Aerostructures (DSA) has had to redesign some of the components it is producing for the multinational Airbus Military A400M transport aircraft project, owing to a number of critical factors affecting the basic design. DSA is also considering joining the [DID: C-130 sized] Embraer C390 military transport aircraft project…”

• Flight International (Sept 17/08) – A400M gets a boost, as TP400 engine hits full power. First time achievement on the testbed aircraft. The engines are designed to generate 11,000 shp.

• Aviation International News, via WayBack (Sept 16/08) – Testbed Problems Add To A400M Delay. “AIN understands that the problems have included vibration in the fuselage from the eight-blade propellers, and the need to protect the C-130’s rear wing and flap from the much greater heat produced by the TP400…In the 14 weeks since the TP400 was first ground-run on the C-130, only six hours have been logged. Program officials previously said that 30 hours of ground running would be required before the testbed could fly, and 50 hours of flight time would be required before the A400M could make its first flight.”

• EADS, via WayBack (June 26/08) – First A400M Military Transporter Rolled Out.

• DID (Nov 5/07) – Airbus A400M Program Delayed 6-12 Months. Expected first flight moved from January 2008 to summer 2008. It will later be moved again.

• domain-b, via WayBack (May 28/03) – EADS signs [EUR] 20-billion contract for A400M military aircraft. Also a contract between Airbus military and OCCAR.

• Defense Daily (Dec 19/01) – $16 Billion A400M Contract Signed by Airbus Military and Klaus von Sperber, the director of Europe’s Joint Organization for Armaments Cooperation (OCCAR).

• Flight International (April 12/01) – French twist partners’ arms on A400M contract.

AAV7 to LHD 2
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The USMC needs to keep its 40+ year old AAV Amtracs in service, after destroying the EFV amphibious armored personnel carrier replacement program in 2011 with over-ambitious requirements. Iraq taught the USMC that the Amtracs didn’t offer enough protection, and so the latest refurbishment effort plans to improve the AAVP-7A1 personnel carrier’s protection levels. Deliveries are expected to take place between 2018 – 2023…

Contracts & Key Events AAV7P1 Amtracs
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As things stand now, the follow-on Armored Combat Vehicle Phase 1.1 will involve 300 commercial off-the-shelf wheeled armored vehicles. A true swimming AAV replacement won’t arrive until ACV Phase 1.2, but the USMC is still estimating a Phase 1.2 cost of $12-14 million per vehicle, even after reducing the EFV’s requirements. Phase 1.2’s timing will coincide with the beginning of a demographic fiscal crunch, in parallel with increased operations and maintenance costs for the high-maintenance platforms (esp. MV-22 and F-35B) the USMC has been buying lately. That doesn’t augur well, and implies that the AAV7 fleet will remain important for a long time.

SAIC video

March 18/16: The USMC is to receive upgrades to their Amphibious Assault Vehicles (AAV) as their replacement, the Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV), will not be operational until the 2020s. 392 AAV7A1s are to receive an extensive survivability upgrade in a $194 million contract. The USMC has found that AAVs have been vulnerable to improvised explosive devices (IED) and other weapons when operating in Iraq and elsewhere. Improvements to be made include flat-sided buoyant ceramic armor panels, new shock-mitigation seats, replacing benches in older AAVs, and a new transmission, increasing the vehicle’s top speed.

May 9/14: USMC Systems Command in Quantico, VA issues a pair of $27.8 million firm-fixed-price contracts to design and develop AAV7 protection improvements for the USMC’s existing APCs. Work is expected to be complete in February 2015, at which point the USMC will pick a design. The winner will receive an implementation contract option, raising the total value they receive to somewhere between $163.5 million and $206 million, and extending their individual contract until September 2019.

This contract was competitively procured via FBO.gov, with 4 offers received. The 2 development contract winners were:

BAE Systems Land & Armaments, Santa Clara, CA. Work will be performed in York, PA (65%); Santa Clara, CA (30%); Aiken, SC (4%); and Sterling Heights, MI (1%). Contract M67854-14-C-0001.

Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) in McLean, VA. Work will be performed in Charleston, SC (24%); Ontario, Canada (20%); Langley, British Columbia, Canada (15%); Lansing Charter Township, MI (7%); Oceanside, CA (7%); Sterling Heights, MI (5%); Columbus, Indiana (4%); McLean, VA (3%); Plymouth Township, MI (2%); Benton, AR (2%); Detroit, MI (2%); Minneapolis, MN (2%); Chandler, AZ (2%); San Diego, CA (1%); Baltimore, MD (1%); and various other locations less the 1% (3%). Contract M67854-14-C-0002.

Development contracts

Oct 29/13: RFP. The USMC issues their AAV Survivability Upgrade RFP, covering up to 396 AAV7s. An initial development phase will be followed by upgrades to 396 AAV7s.

The USMC wants basic internal systems improvements, along with better protection of the underbelly and sides, blast attenuating seats that hang instead of jarring with every blast to the vehicle’s bottom, and spall liners that keep enemy fire from blasting lethal metal shards out of the vehicle’s inside walls. The systems need to be in production or close to it, with a Tech Readiness Level of 6 (tested prototypes) at the outset. The vehicles still need to be seaworthy when everything is done, and the USMC also hopes to improve on corrosion resistance.

Test vehicles will need to demonstrate adequate performance, including 75% vehicle availability. Low-Rate Initial Production deliveries would begin in Q1 2018 at 4 vehicles, with deliveries rising to 24 per quarter in Q2 2021. The program would end at the end of FY 2023. The government will receive either unlimited data rights, or government-purpose rights to the final design. The difference between those classifications may matter, because the US military aren’t the only ones using the AAV7.

Additional Readings

• FBO.gov (Oct 29/13, #M67854-14-R-0001) – AAV Survivability Upgrade.

• DefenseMediaNetwork (Nov 6/13) – AAV Survivability Upgrade Moves Forward: Select fraction of aging AAVs will undergo upgrade to hold the line until ACV fielding.

• DefenseMediaNetwork (July 16/13) – Marine Corps Explores AAV Reset Options.

Americas

• Lockheed Martin is using company money to fund suppliers for continued production of the F-16. The move comes as the manufacturer aims to prevent the closure of the jet’s production line, as it awaits the finalized orders from Pakistan and chases new business. Without any new orders, the line will have to close next year after delivering the last of 36 F-16s ordered by Iraq. Lockheed officials have mentioned a number of potential clients including Bahrain, Colombia, Indonesia, and India.

• The second prototype of the CH-53K helicopter made its maiden flight in January according to Lockheed company Sikorsky. In addition, the first aircraft into the test program has achieved flight envelope expansion to 120 knots for the USMC’s CH-53K King Stallion heavy lift helicopter program. The two are the most heavily instrumented of the Engineering Development Models (EDM) and will focus on structural flight loads and envelope expansion. Two more will join the flight line later this year and will focus on performance, propulsion, and avionics flight qualification.

• The US Army has awarded an $896 million contract to Boeing to refurbish 27 CH-47F Chinook military airlift helicopters and to buy an additional 12 units. The CH-27F upgrade of the troop transport aircraft was completed in 2006. The modification to the contract increases the funds initially going to Boeing for the work by $30 million. Completion of the upgrades and delivery of the new units is expected by December 20, 2020.

Middle East & North Africa

• Bell Helicopters are to supply three UH-1H Huey II helicopters to the government of Lebanon. The $18.9 million contract is expected to be completed by March 2017, and is part of an order for 18 Huey II helicopters for Lebanon approved by the US Department of State in September 2014. While initially designed as a troop transport and support helicopter, it has been pressed into service by Lebanon as a bomber. For this role they were fitted with extended undercarriage skids and improvised bomb racks for the delivery of 250 kg (550 lb) and 400 kg (880 lb) bombs.

• Saudi Arabian Royal Airforce has taken delivery of two KC-130J tankers from Lockheed. The aerial refuelers were acquired by the Kingdom through a Foreign Military Sales program with the US government. The delivery comes as the USAF awarded manufacturer Lockheed Martin $106 million modification contract for the continued production of 11 variations of the C-130J aircraft. Work on two C-130J-30, three HC-130J, five MC-130J and one KC-130J is expected to be completed by July 31, 2017.

Europe

• Poland is to invest $21 billion in replacing its Soviet-designed BWP-1 and BWP-2 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). The government is currently looking at options for the replacement with a potential joint procurement with the Czech Republic. Warsaw may also partner with local manufacturer Huta Stalowa Wola who acquired the license for South Korea’s K9 chassis for use with its ASM Krab 155mm self-propelled howitzer.

• The UK government is to cut the baseline profit rate for single source defense contracts. The Single Source Regulations Office has recommended cutting the baseline rate at 8.95% as the Minister of Defence (MoD) attempts to bring Britain in line with defense suppliers in Western Europe and North America. According to Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, the new rate “provides a fair return to industry while delivering savings that will be reinvested in defense.” It is expected the government will save $283 million from the change.

Asia Pacific

• Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has successfully test fired FZ 70mm rockets during weapons trials of its prototype TD-3 Light Combat Helicopter (LCH). The next weapon systems scheduled to be tested on the helicopter are the on board 20 mm Giat-Nexter turret gun and MBDA Mistral-2 air-to-air missile. The Indian Air Force has also announced that the planned testing of Astra’s beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) is on schedule, and the missile is on course to be inducted into the air force next year.

Today’s Video

• EA-6 Prowler Equipped With AGM-88 HARM Anti-Radar Missile:

CH-47Fs take off
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DII FOCUS articles offer in-depth, updated looks at significant military programs of record; this FOCUS Article covers the CH-47F/MH-47G Chinook helicopter programs, in the USA and abroad. These helicopters’ distinctive “flying banana” twin-rotor design stems from the brilliant work of aviation pioneer Frank Piasecki. It gives Chinooks the ability to adjust their positioning very precisely, while carrying a large airframe whose load capacity has made it the world’s most popular heavy-lift helicopter. The USA expects to be operating Chinooks in their heavy-lift role past 2030.

The CH-47F looks similar to earlier models, but offers a wide range of improvements in almost every aspect of design and performance. While the related HH-47’s $10-15 billion CSAR-X program win was terminated, delivery orders continue for CH-47Fs and for MH-47G Special Forces configuration helicopters. International orders or formal requests have also come in from Australia, Britain, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and the UAE, with India and other countries expected to follow.

The New Chinooks: CH-47F, MH-47G, HH-47 CH-47F Family: Initial Improvements CH-47D Chinooks
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These new aircraft are part of the U.S. Army Cargo Helicopter Modernization Program, but they are based on a long-serving basic design. The CH-47F Chinook and MH-47G Special Ops version are the latest variants in a family of helicopters that first saw service in 1962 during the Vietnam War. New “F/G” models feature numerous upgrades over CH-47Ds (produced 1982-1994), including more powerful engines, reduced vibration, upgraded avionics and self-defense systems, and manufacturing advances designed to improve both mission performance and long term costs.

Engines & Fuel: The new CH-47F has 4,868 shaft horsepower (SHP) from each of its twin T55-GA-714A engines, improving fuel efficiency and enhancing lift performance by approximately 3,900 pounds. The new engines will enable the CH-47F to reach speeds in excess of 175 mph and transport up to 21,016 pounds. As a point of comparison, the original CH-47A’s T55-L7 engines generated 2,650 SHP each, and the CH-47D’s T55-L-712 turboshaft engines produced 3,750 SHP. This improved power will also pay dividends in high-altitude or hot environments, as all aircraft suffer performance penalties in such “hot and high” conditions.

The new Robertson Aviation Extended Range Fuel System of internal auxiliary fuel tanks gives the CH-47F a mission radius greater than 400 miles. Other airframe modifications improve the helicopter’s strategic deployability, reducing the time required for aircraft tear down and build-up by about 60% when deploying them via a C-5 Galaxy or C-17 Globemaster III heavy transport aircraft.

CAAS in MH-47: edited
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Cockpit & Avionics: The new digital cockpit design improves interoperability via the US Army’s Common Aviation Architecture System cockpit, simplifying pilot training and workload. CAAS creates a package that offers Digital Advanced Flight Control System (DAFCS) , displays and avionics. That’s enhanced with moving maps, forward-looking infrared (FLIR) and multimode radar pictures for nap-of-earth and low-level flight operations in any visibility or weather, and an advanced data transfer system to store preflight and mission data. Because this is built on the CAAS foundation, expansion, modernization, and even cross-upgrades developed for other helicopters are all thinkable.

Survivability: New survivability features include a Common Missile Warning installation, and Improved Countermeasure Dispenser Systems. The US Army’s ATIRCM contract was intended to round that out with a next-generation defensive system for active laser decoying of enemy guided missiles, and is employed on CH-47s, but turned out to be too heavy to install on the Army’s smaller helicopters. It was limited to CH-47 installations, and terminated.

If the Army’s new CIRCM program to field lighter devices reaches fruition, it will eventually become a common system for all Army machines, and replace ATIRCM via retrofits.

Manufacturing Advances CH-47F: mid-conversion
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The remanufacture process has become more extensive than the original plans, and now involves wholesale replacement of key sections. The incoming helicopter has its propulsion systems removed and sent for overhaul/replacement, and the cockpit is cut off. What’s left is the aft fuselage and cabin, which is blast stripped to bare metal, inspected, and then has appropriate sections repaired or replaced. True manufacturing splices allow full modularity with large airframe sections, which can be mixed and matched if inspection reveals a need to replace other elements.

Throughout this process, Boeing has pushed to reduce manufacturing costs and improve production efficiency by outsourcing significant sub-sections to firms like L-3 Crestview (new cabins), using lean manufacturing processes on the factory floor, and using related techniques like employee involvement teams.

The new airframe itself is built utilizing advanced manufacturing techniques where large single-piece components replace built-up sheet metal structures and aluminum honeycomb formers. Boeing spokespeople have cited 35% reductions in parts and fastener totals. Doing it this way is expected to reduce operating and support costs while improving the structural integrity of the aircraft, extending the overall useful life of each Chinook. Further structural enhancements in key locations, and advanced corrosion protection via special paints, should also improve durability and lead to longer service life.

2011 British orders have taken another step beyond, to CH-47F models with “machined monolithic” frames. CH-47F Phase II and new-build MH-47G helicopters followed suit.

Variants MH-47G, Jackal Stone 2010
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MH-47G. These Chinooks are optimized for Special Forces operations. The most obvious difference is the big aerial refueling tube at the front. Less obvious modifications include extra fuel in enlarged side fuel tanks, additional sensors for surveillance, “aircraft survivability equipment,” dual embedded Global Positioning Systems, a redundant navigator for improved accuracy and reliability, and various advanced datalinks that allow the display of Near Real Time Intelligence Data (NRTID). Almost all MH-47Gs are rebuilt from existing helicopters, but a recent contract is producing 8 new-build birds.

HH-47 CASR. This modified MH-47G successfully lifted off as the $4-10 billion CSAR-X combat search and rescue competition’s winning entry in November 2006. That model still exists, and some of its features have been incorporated at the request of other CH-47F customers like Canada and the Netherlands, but the CSAR-X program was canceled in 2009 after a series of successful GAO protests by the losing contractors. The USAF wound up buying much smaller CRH-60M Pave Hawks instead.

Planned MYP-II improvements CH-47F maintenance
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Cargo & Lift: Initial CH-47Fs don’t offer much beyond the new engines and improved construction, but Phase II/ MYP-II helicopters will have some additions that will be retrofitted back into the rest of the fleet.

The first cargo advance is called COOLS (Cargo On/Off Loading System), and consists of floor panels that flip over, to reveal loading rollers. COOLS panels are expected to begin deploying in February 2013, and their presence will have the side effect of improving floor protection against small arms fire. Chinook modernization manager Lt. Col. Joe Hoecherl explained its importance:

“Right now we have a system that is not on the aircraft. We have to bring it on. What happens now when you are flying is you take off and, if you have a change of mission, you have to go pick up pallets. You can’t push pallets on this floor as it is now. With COOLS, the rolls are going to be built into the floor, so if you have a change of mission you just flip the floor up [and roll the pallets onboard].”

The other advances in this area won’t begin with MYP-II buys, but will be introduced into the production line later, and then added as a retrofit. A new set of composite Advanced Chinook Rotor Blades (ACRB) are projected to able to add another 1,800-pounds of lift capability, thanks to their design. The blades have already gone through some wind-tunnel testing, and are slated for fielding in 2016.

Boeing is also working on an update to the CH-47F’s Improved Vibration Control system, which will be lighter and will have obsolete electronic components replaced.

Maintenance: A number of Boeing’s manufacturing advances are aimed at reducing maintenance, but more can be done. The CHPE (Cargo Platform Health Environment) program of embedded diagnostic and prognostic sensors began installation validation in May 2012, and is slated for MYP-II/ Phase II CH-47Fs. These kinds of HUMS (Health and Usage Monitoring Systems) offer make basic maintenance like rotor track and balance easier, and make diagnosing wider helicopter problems and fleet trends much easier. That saves a lot of money on maintenance, and improves availability in service.

The USA’s Acquisition Plan CH-47 Assembly Line
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The US Army’s original plan was revised upward a few times from the original 452, and went as high as 533 helicopters in 2012, before coming back to the same place it began in April 2013.

The FY 2014 budget would leave the US military with 451 machines, made up of 382 CH-47Fs and 69 MH-47Gs.

Under the current plan, the Army is modernizing 206 CH-47D Chinooks to the new F-model configuration, while also buying 176 new-build CH-47F Chinooks. New build and refurbished CH-47s are being bought side by side, in order to keep more operational helicopters out of the factory lines and on the front lines.

In the wake of operational success in Afghanistan, U.S. Army Special Operations Command (SOCOM) moved to increase its MH-47G Chinook inventory to 69 machines, adding 8 new helicopters to its 61 remanufactured machines.

The CH-47F was expected to enter service in July 2007, and did receive a US Army go-ahead for full-rate production and fielding that month; it was certified as combat ready with the 101st Airborne in August 2007.

Under a multi-year contract awarded in August 2008, Boeing received 28 orders in 2009, and then began a graduated delivery rate ramp-up through successive years. Boeing submitted a proposal for a CH-47F MYP-II buy to begin in 2013, and that contract was finally signed in May 2013. Note that Foreign Military Sales are available as options under these contracts, if the countries involved want to take advantage of that.

The USAF’s CSAR-X program could have added another 141 HH-47 helicopters, but it was canceled following competitive protests. That saga is detailed in its own article set. CSAR-X was eventually canceled, though the USAF is still looking for a combat search and rescue option via its “CRH” solicitation.

Global Contracts and Key Events CH-47F & CH-47D
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Customer Orders: US Army (532 planned), US SOCOM (61 planned), Australia (7), Britain (14), Canada (15), Italy (16), the Netherlands (6/9), Turkey (6+/14), United Arab Emirates (6+/16).

Unless otherwise noted, key program events and related awards noted below are assumed to be US orders from Army Aviation and Missile Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL; issued to The Boeing Co. in Ridley Park, PA.

Note that contracts to Boeing are not all-inclusive, by any means. As an example, they include installation of Honeywell’s engines, but not the engines themselves, which are “Government Furnished Equipment” (GFE) bought under a separate contract. In a related vein, the purchase contract is usually accompanied by advance materials and “long lead items” contracts earlier. The actual price of a combat-ready CH-47F will be very different.

FY 2016

Canadian CH-147
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March 17/16: The US Army has awarded an $896 million contract to Boeing to refurbish 27 CH-47F Chinook military airlift helicopters and to buy an additional 12 units. The CH-27F upgrade of the troop transport aircraft was completed in 2006. The modification to the contract increases the funds initially going to Boeing for the work by $30 million. Completion of the upgrades and delivery of the new units is expected by December 20, 2020.

January 19/16: The upgrade program of the Chinook CH-47F looks to be shortly approved after a successful meeting at the Army Systems Acquisition Review Council. All that is required for the project to be green lit, is a signed decision memorandum that will allow the service to release a request for proposals for its “Block II” upgrade program. While little is known of the exact upgrades that will be part of the program, it is believed that changes will be made to the electrical system, transmission and rotor system, as well as increasing the helicopter payload by 4,000 pounds to 54,000.

October 14/15: The Army will likely release a Request for Proposals for the CH-47 Chinook Block 2 program early next year; however the enhancements required by the Army have yet to be finalized. Janes reports that one of the possible technologies set for inclusion in the Block 2 package is the Advanced Chinook Rotor Blade (ACRB), thought capable of adding an additional 1,800lb of lift capacity, with the Army having already invested $17.9 million in March 2013 to develop the technology.

FY 2015

September 10/15: Flightglobal reports that the Netherlands plans to procure 14 CH-47F Chinook helicopters, upgrade its six existing F model aircraft, and retire ten older D models. The new F models will not be in the CH-47F (NL) configuration as per previous orders, owing to budgetary constraints, but will instead be modified US Army CH-47F designs, acquired through the Foreign Military Sales program and scheduled for delivery in 2019. The $1 billion project will eventually see the Dutch operate 20 upgraded CH-47F helicopters, which will boast new VHF radios, self-protection equipment and fast-rope insertion/extraction systems, among other upgrades.

August 10/15: The Army wants to restart production of the Boeing MH-47G Chinook special mission helicopter in a new Block II design. With eight Block I variants scheduled for delivery by the end of 2015, the specific upgrades incorporated into the Block II version have not been disclosed. The first MH-47G Block I was delivered in October 2014, with the pace of SOCOM operations driving the requirement for new build helicopters. The new Block II variants will reportedly replace some or all of SOCOM’s 61 Block I MH-47Gs.

May 6/15: The first pair of F-model CH-47 helicopters have entered service with the Australian Army, with five more scheduled for delivery by August. The seven helicopters were ordered in 2010 contract along with training simulators and spares for $470 million. The Aussie F models are US-configured, in comparison to other international customers such as the UK and Canada which ordered modified versions.

Oct 15/14: Brazil. Boeing spokesman Scott Day says that “We have had some early discussions about the Chinook with the Brazilian Army,” but said the potential order is “not a large one.”

Brazil’s military doesn’t have any helicopters as large as the CH-47F. The closest they get is AS532 Super Puma medium helicopters and their more modern iteration, the EC725 Cougar. A small number of CH-47s would be very useful for hauling heavier cargo loads into remote areas without an airstrip, and especially for recovery of other helicopters. Sources: WKZO, “Exclusive: Boeing eyes possible Chinook helicopter sale to Brazil”.

FY 2014 – 2015

CH-47Fs
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March 25/15: The Netherlands looks set to receive 17 CH-47F helicopters in a $1.05 billion Foreign Military Sale from the US. The new aircraft will replace the Netherlands’s existing fleet of CH-47D variants and will complement a previous sale of CH-47Fs in 2006.

Sept 29/14: new MH-47G. Boeing delivers the first new-build MH-47G to US Army Army Special Operations Aviation Command a full month ahead of schedule, as part of an 8-helicopter, $300 million program that will last through 2015.

Production improvements on the new-build models include more robust, improved monolithic machined-frames that were pioneered for the British Chinook Mk.6 (q.v. Aug 22/11), a digital flight control system, and improved air transportability. Sources: Boeing, “Boeing Delivers First New-Build MH-47G Special Operations Chinook”.

Sept 26/14: Support. A 5+ year, $499.1 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for American H-47 helicopter support services, encompassing engineering, logistics, data analysis, technical data reproduction, supportability, and management requirements for pre-through post-production, sustainment, and fleet support of all H-47 variants.

Delivery order 0001 is exercised immediately, and the rest will be allocated as needed, with work location and funding determined for each order. The support contract runs until Dec 31/19. Bids were solicited via the internet, with 1 received (W58RGZ-14-D-0075).

5-year H-47 support contract

Sept 15/14: Upgrades. Boeing in Ridley Park, PA receives a $27.7 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract modification to develop, test, and bench qualify a modified electrical system for the CH-47.

Fiscal 2014 other funds in the amount of $27,700,422 were obligated at the time of the award. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30, 2017. Army Contracting Command, Redstone Arsenal, AL manages the contract (W58RGZ-04-G-0023, 0308).

Aug 29/14: India. The new BJP government’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) makes a number of key moves, beginning with cancellation of the 197-helicopter Light Utility Helicopter competition. At the same time, however, DAC effectively cleared the purchase of 15 CH-47F Chinook and 22 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, by approving Boeing’s industrial offset proposals. Sources: Defense News, “India Cancels $1 Billion Light Helicopter Tender” | Financial Express, “Make in India kicks off with defence deals” | Indian Express, “Centre scraps light utility helicopter tender, opens it to Indian players” | NDTV, “Modi Government Drops Rs 6000-Crore Foreign Chopper Plan, Wants ‘Made in India'”.

July 31/14: Engines. Honeywell Aerospace International, Phoenix, Arizona, was awarded a $121.9 million initial foreign military sales contract order, on behalf of Turkey, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco. Note that Morocco isn’t a CH-47F customer, but their request for 3 CH-47Ds included the uprated 714A engines.

It’s the 1st order under a new contract covering up to 440 total T55-GA-714A engines and 365 T55-GA-714A engine fielding kits. All funds for this order are committed immediately, but the wider contract will have a total potential value well north of $121 million.

Work will be performed until Dec 31/18 in Phoenix, AZ. US Army Contracting Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-14-C-0021, PO 0001).

July 29/14: 1st Phase II. Boeing delivers the first CH-47F Phase II to the U.S. Army, 1 month ahead of schedule, in a ceremony at the production facility in Ridley Township, PA. Sources: Boeing, “Boeing Delivers First U.S. Army Multiyear II Configured Chinook”.

1st CH-47F Phase II

July 22/14: COOLS. A $65.4 million firm-fixed-price contract for 204 Cargo On/Off Loading System (COOLS) A-Kits; 204 COOLS B-Kits; and 22 COOLS Ballistic Protection System (BPS) Kits. All funds are committed immediately, using FY 2013 US Army budgets. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Nov 29/19.

COOLS (Cargo On/Off Loading System) consists of floor panels that flip over to reveal loading rollers. Before the CH-47F Phase II was introduced, the loading rollers had to be installed independently. That made loading and unloading supply pallets much more difficult and tedious. In contrast, metal COOLS floors can be flipped in place in minutes, while providing extra ballistic protection as a bonus (W58RGZ-14-C-0063).

May 22/14: +1 CH-47F. Boeing in Ridley Park, PA receives a $25.9 million contract modification under the multi-year contract, exercising an option for 1 CH-47F Chinook helicopter. All funds are committed immediately, using FY 2014 US Army budgets.

Note that this isn’t the full purchase price of a CH-47F, which also has Government Furnished Equipment aboard that is bought under other contracts. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/20 (W58RGZ-13-C-0002, PO 0009).

April 17/14: Support. A $43.3 million contract modification for new equipment and equipment training to Army units receiving the CH-47F. All funds are committed immediately, using Army FY 2014 budgets. Work will run until Feb 29/16, at continental United States and overseas locations (W58RGZ-13-C-0114, PO 0003).

April 9/14: An $8.9 million modification to the MYP-II contract, covering overruns for Production Lot 12 and advance buys for Lot 13. All funds are committed from FY 2011, 2012 and 2014 budgets. Estimated completion date is Dec 31/20. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA (W58RGZ-13-C-0002, PO 0008).

April 3/14: Phase II. A $19 million contract modification to integrate improved drive train development, as part of the CH-47F Phase II Aircraft Component Improvement Program. All funds are committed immediately, from FY 2014 RDT&E budgets. Estimated completion date is May 29/15 (W58RGZ-04-G-0023, 0307).

March 18/14: Phase II. Boeing in Ridley Park, PA receives a $15.8 million cost-plus-fixed-fee to develop and test a CH-47F Phase II Lightweight Fuel System as part of the Airframe Component Improvement Program. Work will be performed at Ridley Park, PA until March 15/17. Bids were solicited via the Web, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

strong>Dec 26/13: +28 CH-47F. Boeing in Ridley, Park, PPA receives a $617.7 million order for FY 2014 production, under the current multi-year contract (q.v. June 11-17/13): 22 remanufactured CH-47Fs, 6 new CH-47Fs, and long lead funding for remanufacturing 13 CH-47F helicopters in FY 2015. Note that the FY 2015 budget projections called for 30 remanufactured helicopters.

All funds are committed immediately, using FY 2014 other procurement funds. Work will be performed at Ridley Park, PA, and the estimated completion date for the contract is listed as Dec 31/20 (W58RGZ-14-C-0003, PO 004).

Jan 28/14: DOT&E Testing Report. The Pentagon releases the FY 2013 Annual Report from its Office of the Director, Operational Test & Evaluation (DOT&E). The MH-47 gets some good news, thanks to a better armoring system:

“The Army Aviation Applied Technology Directorate (AATD), contracting with The Protective Group, completed work on this project during FY13. They developed a non?permanent armor to fit under the floor of the MH-47 helicopter cabin. The goal was to maintain the same minimum level of ballistic protection as the fielded armor, with better durability and less installed weight. Locating the armor under the cabin floor panels greatly reduces the wear and increases its lifespan. The designers also developed an installation and removal system that is lightweight, requires minimal aircraft modification and manpower, and does not interfere with maintenance requirements, mission equipment, or cargo loading systems. The project demonstrated armor panel installation and removal in minutes and achieved a 34 percent reduction in weight over the currently fielded ballistic protection system.”

FY 2013

FY 2013-2017 multi-year deal; +1 MH-47G; Late Dutch deliveries finally begin; Preferred bidder in India; Prospects in Libya?; DVE system for MH-47Gs to help see in tough conditions. CH-47F got moves
(click to view full)

Sept 27/13: Libya order? The Libya Herald reports that the country is looking to buy transport helicopters, in order to reach remote communities and vastly improve border control. IHS Jane’s and Boeing both report that the Chinook is a serious contender. Despite Libya’s past as an anti-American state and Soviet client, they have a long history with the CH-47 thanks to license-built sales from Italy’s AgustaWestland. Most of their 20 Chinooks were destroyed in the civil war, with just 1 reportedly flying.

The Chinook can expect competition from options like Eurocopter’s EC725, and the most interesting question might be whether the CH-47F deal with AgustaWestland includes Libya within the June 2008 agreement’s export zone, and under what terms. The other big question is the size of Libya’s desired order. Senior Boeing manager Steve Barlage said in August that the desired order was more of a full replacement: 6 CH-47Ds and 16 CH-47Fs. Recent accounts, however, involve just 6 CH-47Ds, which could be taken from American or Canadian stocks and sold through Boeing.

Libya has vast potential oil riches, but the country is in somewhat poor shape, and oil production has plunged sharply to under 100,000 barrels per day in the wake of strikes and disorder at key terminals. At the same time, US government financing to backstop arms deals is limited. There are ways to square that circle, including an export order from AgustaWestland that leverages Italian export credits, but it’s all up to Libya. Sources: Libya Herald, “Military considers $700 million Chinook helicopter deal” | Defense News, “US Firms Eye Late Entry Into Libyan Defense Market” | SKy News Australia, “Libya oil production slumps over strike”.

Sept 27/13: +7 MH-47G. A $78.2 million firm-fixed-price contract finalizes an order for 7 new-build MH-47G helicopters, which is the total for that type under the recent multi-year contract (q.v. June 11-17/13).

Even as bare airframes, this amount seems a bit low (q.v. Dec 11/12). The final cost of each ready-to operate MH-47G is, of course, considerably higher. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA. One bid was solicited and 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023, 0275503).

Sept 27/13: MH-47 DVE. The Technical Applications Contracting Office in Fort Eustis, VA issues 3 contracts to develop and field “the degraded visual environments (DVE) system.” DVE will “integrate information from [MH-47E/G and MH-60K/L/M helicopter] sensors,” in order to help aircrews perm their missions through rain, fog, sand brownouts, etc. Dust-driven brownouts are an especially prevalent killer in many operating theaters, and the advanced sensors already on board US SOCOM’s helicopters offer an interesting option for cutting through the clutter. See also: US Army, “Army acquiring ‘brown-out’ assistance for helos” for additional context regarding this area in general. This area is being pursued by a number of US military programs, and by a number of private companies.

The 60-month SOCOM DVE contracts were awarded from 5 offers received in response to the FBO.gov solicitation, and they will run until Aug 31/17. Winners include:

Rockwell Collins in Cedar Rapids, IA wins a maximum $22.4 million indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity, cost reimbursement contract, with $1.3 million in FY 2013 research, development, test and evaluation funds committed immediately for task order 0001 (H92241-13-D-0008).

Sierra Nevada Corp. in Sparks, NV receives a maximum $22.6 million indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity, cost-plus-fixed-fee DVE contract, with $624,013 in FY 2013 research, development, test and evaluation funds committed immediately for task order 0001 (H92241-13-D-0010).

Boeing in Philadelphia, PA wins a maximum $23 million indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity, cost-plus-fixed-fee DVE contract, with $2.1 million in FY 2013 research, development, test and evaluation funds committed immediately for task order 0001 (H92241-13-D-0011).

July 18/13: Support. A maximum $39.6 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for helicopter support and personnel training services, aimed at units receiving the CH-47F. FY 2013 procurement funds are being used, and 1 bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-13-C-0114).

June 24/13: Italy. The Italian Army’s 1st ICH-47F Chinook performs its 15-minute maiden flight at AgustaWestland’s Vergiate plant in Italy. Under the joint agreement, AW makes the drive systems, handles system integration for Italy’s unique requirements, and performs final assembly. They also have the same kind of wider export permission in their region that they enjoyed with the CH-47C.

Italy ordered up to 20 ICH-47Fs (16 + 4 options – q.v. May 13/09), to replace the 1st Regiment’s 40 CH-47Cs that entered service in 1973. Delivery of this 1st helicopter is scheduled for early 2014, with final deliveries in 2017. AgustaWestland | Read “Italy Buying CH-47F Helicopters” for more.

June 11-17/13: MYP. A $3.414 billion firm-fixed-price, multi-year contract for remanufactured and new-build CH-47F cargo helicopters, with $1.317 billion of FY 2011-2013 funds committed immediately. Boeing announces it as a contract for 177 helicopters from FY 2013 – 2017, which could rise to 215. If it does rise that high, the Pentagon announces the contract maximum as $4.984 billion. Boeing is touting up to $800 million of savings vs. single-year buys, plus a $130 million investment they’ve already made to modernize the Chinook factory in Pennsylvania.

The Pentagon adds that a portion of the initial contract involves foreign military sales for Turkey and the UAE. The USA’s FY 2013 budget submission involved just 155 helicopters and $373 million in savings, for a total of $3.363 billion. That indicates another 22 helicopters in this base order, but Turkey and the UAE together have just 16 helicopters left in their DSCA requests (8 each), so the numbers don’t add immediately.

As of this date, there were 241 CH-47Fs in the Army and National Guard, with 15 units operating them and a 16th being equipped. CH-47F units have logged more than 86,000 combat hours in Afghanistan, maintaining an operational readiness rate of over 80%, compared to equally new technology like the V-22 tilt-rotor whose readiness rate is 70% or less. Boeing cites a final Army target of 464 CH-47Fs, including 24 to replace helicopters that have been lost, but that’s at variance with FY 2014 Pentagon budget documents (W58RGZ-13-C-0002). Boeing.

Multi-Year Contract:
177 – 215 helicopters

April 10/13: FY 2014 Budget. The President releases a proposed budget at last, the latest in modern memory. The Senate and House were already working on budgets in his absence, but the Pentagon’s submission is actually important to proceedings going forward. See ongoing DID coverage.

The FY 2013 program plan was 533 helicopters: 237 New Build + 226 remanufactured. The FY 2014 program plan cuts that by 20 remanufactured helicopters (to 207) and 61 new-build helicopters (to 176), but the interesting thing about the cuts is that they mostly take place after 2017. The reason is the multi-year buy proposal, which runs from FY 2013 – 2017. There is a cut of $527 million in the FY 2017 budget projection, and if you look closely, it’s mostly from the total removal of new-build funding that year. The exact impact of these cuts on the entire program’s cost isn’t clear yet, and will have to await a Pentagon Selected Acquisitions Report (SAR).

March 21/13: Improved rotor. A $17.9 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract modification for Advanced Chinook Rotor Blade (ACRB) design and engineering services. This blade is slated to be added part-way through CH-47F Block II production, with fielding in 2016. If it performs to spec, it will add another 1,800-pounds of lift capability, and could be retrofitted to the rest of the fleet. See also Aug 4/12 entry.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of March 18/17 (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Dec 11/12: +1 MH-47G. A $34.2 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract to buy 1 MH-47G special operations variant Chinook helicopter. There’s a fair bit of separate equipment that also goes into these, so our standard warning about prices is magnified in this case.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Oct 31/15. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Dec 5/12: India. The Indian government officially announces that Boeing’s CH-47F is its preferred bidder. In India, an “L1” bidder is the one that offers the lowest cost, after all adjustments have been made to the proposal. Depending on the competition, price adjustments could be made as a result of industrial benefits plans, maintenance figures, etc.:

“In the proposal initiated by Indian Air Force (IAF) for procurement of 15 Heavy Lift Helicopters, M/s Boeing with Chinook Helicopter has emerged as the L1 Vendor. The cost of the Contract would depend upon outcome of the Contract negotiation with the L1 Vendor, which has not yet concluded.

The Field Evaluation Trials for these Helicopters conducted by the Indian Air Force have found them to be compliant with all the stated Air Staff Qualitative Requirements (ASQRs). Divulging further details in this regard may not be in the interest of National security.”

Nov 28/12: Canada. Canada’s DND provides an update re: its 15-helicopter “CH-147” project. They say that the project is currently on-budget for its C$ 2.3 billion procurement phase, and on schedule. The add that Boeing is also on track to meet its target of $1.25 billion in industrial offset commitments. The RCAF currently has 2 CH-47Fs flying, and will continue to fly test missions in 2013.

The first CH-147 is scheduled to arrive on schedule at a new CFB Petawawa, ON facility in June 2013. Helicopters will be delivered at a rate of approximately one aircraft per month, with all aircraft being delivered over a 12-month period, reaching Initial Operational Capability in 2014, as planned. Canada DND.

Nov 19/12: Sub-contractors. Canadian landing gear specialist Heroux-Devtek Inc. in Longeuil, PQ receives a multi-year contract from Boeing to manufacture the landing gear for all US Army CH-47F helicopters bought under MYP-II. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in the first half of 2014 and run into 2019. Current MYP-II contract expectations will involve 155 helicopters, but this sub-contract also includes options for up to 150 additional landing gear sets to 2019. America isn’t likely to order another 150 CH-47Fs, but foreign buyers might, and MYP-II lets them benefit from the same bulk-order prices negotiated by the US government.

Heroux-Devtek is already an incumbent landing gear supplier for the CH-47F, thanks to the Sept 24/09 MoU that let them bid to supply all H-47F aircraft delivered to customers outside the United States. In September 2012, they received a license to fabricate replacement parts, and to carry out repair and overhaul services, for the landing gear of all Chinook variants. This agreement completes the trifecta. Heroux-Devtek release [PDF].

Oct 28/12: India. The Ministry of Defence has reportedly designated Boeing’s bid to supply 15 CH-47Fs as the “L-1” (lowest adjusted bid) in Russia’s heavy-lift helicopter competition. If a contract is finalized, the CH-47F will have beaten Russia’s larger and more powerful Mi-26T2, which already serves in India’s armed forces. Both types have proven themselves in Afghanistan, and commercial Mi-26 helicopters have been hired to airlift crashed CH-47Ds back to base.

One key difference? The CH-47F may have just half of the Mi-26’s takeoff weight, but it can be transported in India’s new fleet of C-17A Globemaster heavy-lift jets. That will give an Indian CH-47F fleet a much greater deployment reach. Times of India.

Oct 8/12: Netherlands. The Dutch Armed Forces receives their first 2 CH-47F-NLs, growing their CH-47 fleet to 13 (11 Ds, 2 Fs). The delivery is significantly later than the original date of 2009.

For training purposes, the Luchtmachthanden has stationed 3 training CH-47Ds in Fort Hood, TX. They’ve also set up local training at the School of the Air-Ground Cooperation in Schaarsbergen, including a 10m fixed drop to practice ropedowns. Dutch MvD [in Dutch].

Oct 5/12: Support. Boeing announces a 5-year, $185 million Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) contract to manage production, overhaul and distribution of the Army’s supply of Chinook helicopter rotor blades. This includes older CH-47D models, as well as the CH-47F. Boeing now has performance-based support contracts within the AH-64 Apache, V-22 Osprey, and international CH-47 programs. They add that:

“Boeing has been collaborating with U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Life Cycle Management Command for several years on ways to improve the tooling used to produce and repair Chinook rotor blades. The company also has increased the efficiency and capacity of its Chinook supply chain through the use of improved asset management and forecasting tools, an enhanced supplier network and a public-private partnership with the Corpus Christi Army Depot.”

Oct 5/12: HUMS. An $8.6 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for CH-47F cargo-platform health environment (CPHE) field demonstration kits. Boeing confirms that these embedded HUMS (Health and Usage Monitoring Systems) will track wear and performance for specific mechanical components and areas. The contract supports initial CPHE fielding, and this aircraft monitoring system is part of the Multi Year II suite of improvements to the CH-47F.

The initial fielding contract, however, is issued under an older agreement. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 28/13. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Oct 4/12: IVCS. A $17.1 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract to qualify Improved Vibration Control Systems for use on the CH-47. Boeing says that IVCS replaces the existing system, reducing weight and issues with part obsolescence. It is not part of the Multi Year II suite of improvements to the CH-47F.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of Sept 28/15. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Oct 2/12: COOLS. A $13 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for “cargo on/off loading systems.” Boeing confirms that this contract is for the new Cargo On/Off Loading System (COOLS), which provides a convertible roller/ flat floor surface for the CH-47F, and incidentally improves bullet protection in the floor. COOLS will be installed in all MYP-II Chinooks, and will be retrofitted into all existing F-model Chinooks.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of Jan 31/14. One bid was solicited, with one bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

FY 2012

FY 2012 buys; FY 2013-17 plans; 2nd multi-year US deal for improved CH-47Fs?; Australian & UAE contracts; Survivability. CH-47F, FOB Bastion
(click to view full)

Sept 25/12: Support. A $12.1 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for CH-47F maintenance. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of Sept 11/15. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Aug 16/12: 50th Anniversary. Boeing marks the 50th anniversary of delivering the first H-47 Chinook military helicopter, making it Boeing’s longest continuously running production program. The company has delivered more than 1,200 Chinooks to 18 operators around the world, and more than 800 still in operation today.

The production line near Philadelphia is about to see the end of a $130 million renovation that will help Boeing increase Chinook production rates without breaking the bank. Boeing says that they are scheduled to deliver nearly 60 Chinooks this year. They have a proposal for a multi-year American buy, and a backlog of foreign orders.

Aug 14/12: Australia/ UAE. An $81.1 million firm-fixed-price contract modification of an existing contract for “CH-47F aircraft in support of foreign military sales.” Boeing explains to DID that this converts the existing Bridge Contract for CH-47F Foreign Military Sales (vid. Jan 5/12), formally converting the (now 14) helicopters from a Multi Year I to a Multi Year II configuration with the added floor loading systems, etc. It also establishes firm delivery dates for Australia and the United Arab Emirates. The total contract value is now $451.1 million.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of June 15/15. The bid was solicited through the Internet, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-12-C-0010).

Australia & UAE

Aug 14/12: Improved Rotor. A $37.2 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for engineering services in support of the Advanced Chinook’s rotor blade tooling. Advanced Chinook incorporates a number of modifications to the base CH-47F, and the new rotor blade design is one of the most important ones.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Nov 30/15. The bid was solicited through the Internet, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Aug 7/12: AVMS. Boeing announces that it will embark on Phase II of its Adaptive Vehicle Management System (AVMS), an advanced flight control system that’s designed to improve maneuverability and performance. It achieves these goals by adapting the flight controls to the aircraft’s flight condition, environment and even computed pilot intent.

The $18 million U.S. Army contract is a joint development project between Boeing and the Army Aviation Applied Technology Directorate (AATD) and will encompass more than 100 hours of flight test time. In Phase II, the team will fly the AVMS system on the modified Boeing H-6 helicopter used in Phase I, as well as on the larger Boeing AH-64 Apache attack helicopter and CH-47 Chinook heavy-lift helicopter.

May 16/12: MH-47G. Rolls Royce Corp. in Indianapolis, IN receives a $17 million firm-fixed-price and cost-no-fee contract for MH-47G helicopter infrared exhaust suppressors, including systems components, initial fielding spares and spare parts.

Work location will be determined with each task order, until May 10/17. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received by U.S. Army Contracting Command in Fort Eustis, VA (W91215-12-D-0001).

April 9/12: A $26.9 million firm-fixed-price contract for “services in support of the Chinook cargo helicopter advance procurement, long lead items.” Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/13. One bid was solicited, with one bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

April 4/12: US Army Plans. US Army CH-47 F-model project manager Lt. Col. Brad Killen states that the Army plans to have a “pure” fleet of 440 F-model Chinooks by 2018, thanks to a combination of CH-47F buys and upgrades. So far, the Army has accepted 169 CH-47Fs, and its long history of upgrades still includes the first CH-47A ever delivered. About 50 years later, it’s serving in Afghanistan, as a CH-47D.

Lt. Col. Killen has a colleague, thanks to the Army’s recent move to install a Lt. Col. Joe Hoecherl as the special program manager for CH-47F modernization. Key initiatives includes the new composite rotor blade, slated for flight testing in summer 2015; the COOLS Cargo On/Off Loading System of flippable rotors, which will begin fielding in February 2013; and the CHPE Cargo Platform Health Environment of embedded diagnostic and prognostic sensors, which begins installation validation in May 2012. US Army.

Feb 13/12: FY 2013 budget. The US Army request is $1,462.3 million for 44 CH-47Fs. $1,159.4 million will fund 19 new-build and 19 remanufactured/Service Life Extension Program helicopters, while another $231.3 million buys 6 Overseas Contingency CH-47Fs to replace combat losses. The accompanying document says that:

“Protection of the CH-47 is a major part of the Army’s continued focus on aviation and maintaining an effective Aviation Modernization program, specifically modernization of the Army Rotary Wing fleet. The Department requests funding for procurement of 25 new F-model aircraft while remanufacturing 19 more. Also, funding will be used for further improvements and upgrades, including a loading system to enable rapid reconfiguration from cargo to passenger missions. Funding in FY 2013 is $1.2 billion and totals $5.7 billion from FY 2013 – FY 2017.”

Feb 13/12: +32 CH-47F. A $676 million firm-fixed-price contract modification to buy 32 CH-47F new build helicopter airframes, plus installation of GFE equipment like engines, etc. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/15. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Feb 13/12: A $21.9 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract, covering initial production fielding support for each new equipment training site equipped with the CH-47 cargo helicopter.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of April 30/13. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-11-C-0093).

Feb 13/12: Cargo upgrade. A $13.3 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract modification to manufacture and test 5 Cargo On-and-Off Loading System prototypes. As noted above, this is a proposed modification to the existing CH-47F.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Feb 28/14. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Jan 17/12: DOT&E on Survivability. The Pentagon releases the FY2011 Annual Report from its Office of the Director, Operational Test & Evaluation (DOT&E). The CH-47 is cited as a system performing well on all measures, but there were some interesting notes about survivability:

“Rotorcraft Sponson RPG Vulnerability. This project is demonstrating methods of suppressing fires resulting from RPG impacts to sponson fuel tanks [DID: those bulges on the lower sides] – with emphasis on occupant survivability. For several U.S. rotorcraft, fuel tanks are contained in sponsons that are adjacent to the main cabin. Current data indicates that the U.S. aircraft are being shot with RPGs and sponsons should be protected.

…Combat Incident Emerging Threat Investigation. This project is addressing a recent combat incident in Afghanistan that raised concerns about a potential new threat to helicopters. In this incident, a CH-47 helicopter was damaged in a manner uncharacteristic of any previous incident. JCAT requested JLF Air support by providing threat-target characterization data for their incident investigation. Results from two shots completed against a surrogate airframe were provided to JCAT. The initial results from these tests allowed JCAT to understand the engagement conditions and subsequent damage with confidence, increasing the value of information provided to operational commanders.”

Jan 5/12: Australia & UAE. A $370 million firm-fixed-price contract to “provide for the services in support of the bridge requirement for new CH-47 F model aircraft to support foreign military sales.” The English translation, based on responses to our inquiries, is that Australia and the UAE are buying 13 CH-47Fs (7 of 7 Australia, 6 of 16 UAE) under the US Army’s contract, in order to benefit from its volume pricing. The 14th helicopter will be bought by the US Army.

As always, this is buying base airframes, plus integration of GFE. Even so, CH-47F customers like Britain and Canada, who ordered heavily customized versions, can’t take advantage of this approach. Neither can Italy, who will produce the machines in-country under an agreement between Boeing and AgustaWestland.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of June 30/16. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received by the US Army Contracting Command at Redstone Arsenal, AL, on behalf of its Foreign Military Sale clients (W58RGZ-12-C-0010). See also Dec 3/09 entry, “Australia Ordering CH-47F Chinooks“, and Boeing’s release.

CH-47Fs: 7 Australia, 6 UAE, & 1 USA

Jan 5/12: A $218.7 million firm-fixed-price contract. Clarifications revealed that the FY 2012 order will produce the last 12 refurbished CH-47F (converted from CH-47D) airframes under the current multi-year contract, as well as installation of equipment like engines etc. that are bought by the government under separate contracts. Boeing submitted an offer for a follow-on multi-year CH-47F contract in November 2011 (vid. Nov 4/11, Oct 12/11), and expects that if their offer is accepted, it would happen around January 2013.

Note that final contract dates are not the same as final delivery dates, so the 1st multi-year program will still be building machines during any follow-on contract’s initial couple of years. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/15. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Nov 4/11: MYP-II offer. Boeing has tabled its 2nd multi-year buy offer to the US government, for another 155 CH-47F family helicopters, as the end comes into view for its first $4.3 billion, multi-year contract for 191 helicopters.

Boeing CH-47Fs currently equip 8 U.S. Army units, and 6 of those units have completed deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Army is in the process of training and equipping the 9th unit. Boeing.

Oct 12/11: MYP-II = CH-47F+. Boeing is preparing its next multi-year buy offer to the US government for 155 more CH-47 family helicopters, which would end the program of record.

Procurement wouldn’t start until 2013, and the new machines would include a number of changes including flip-over cargo rollers on the floor. They’re also developing a new rotor blade to give the helicopter about 2,000 more pounds of lift, without hurting forward flight performance. The new rotor is headed for a Critical Design Review in January 2012, but probably won’t deliver in time to begin the next buy. Defense News.

FY 2011

FY 2011 buys; British & Turkish buys; Dutch 1st flight; New sensor turrets; Canada’s Auditor-General is very critical. CH-47F, Ft. Campbell
(click to view full)

Sept 14/11: A $6.75 million firm-fixed-price contract modification “to support the CH-47F Chinook helicopter renew aircraft.” Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/15. One bid was solicited, with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Aug 22/11: UK contract. The UK MoD signs a GBP 1 billion ($1.64 billion) contract with Boeing for 14 new “CH-47 Mk6” Chinook helicopters, plus associated support for the first 5 years.

Boeing confirmed that these are new-build helicopters, which use the same T55-GA-714A engines that are installed on the F model, and being retrofitted to existing RAF Chinooks. The CH-47F is also known for its use of large, single-piece components, and the UK advisory touts a “new, machined monolithic airframe.” That appears to be a CH-47F base, but extensive changes and additions include UK-specific avionics, communication and navigation equipment; forward-looking infrared surveillance turrets; a rescue hoist; and defensive systems against guided missiles. Canada made similar changes to the “CH-147s” it bought.

The RAF will receive the 1st Mk6 aircraft for initial trials and testing in 2013, to enter service in May 2014. By early 2015, 3 CH-47 Mk6 helicopters are slated to be ready for operational deployment, and delivery of all 14 helicopters is expected to finish by the end of 2015. The RAF intends to have all 14 operational by early 2017, bringing their total Chinook fleet to 60 (barring further losses). UK MoD | Boeing.

Britain: 14 “CH-47 Mk6”

Aug 14/11: Turkey. As expected, Turkey’s DSCA request (vid. Dec 8/09, June 6/11) shrunk by 66% and turned into an initial order for 6 CH-47Fs, with 5 going to the Army, and 1 to their Special Forces Command. An unnamed procurement official was reported as saying the contract was signed last month for about $400 million. Delivery is scheduled to take place between 2013 – 2014. The country didn’t have heavy-lift helicopters yet, so this is a notable step forward for them. Hürriyet Daily News.

Turkey: 6 CH-47F

Aug 11/11: MH-47G. An $8.4 million firm-fixed-price contract to buy Digital Automatic Flight Control Systems for the Special Operations MH-47G. They’re actually manufactured by BAE.

Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 1/13. One bid was solicited, with one bid received by the US Army Aviation and Missile Command, Contracting Center in Fort Eustis, VA (W91215-11-D-0001).

Aug 4/11: MH-47G. Raytheon in McKinney, TX receives a $21 million indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity contract for 8-15 AN/ZSQ-2v1 Assault and 0-5 AN/ZSQ-2v2 Attack Electro-Optical Sensor Systems. The FBO solicitation specified only MH-47Gs, but the DefenseLINK release referred to US SOCOM’s MH-47G Chinook and MH-60M Black Hawk helicopters at Fort Campbell, KY.

Work will be performed primarily in McKinney, TX and is expected to be completed by Aug 2/13. A $15.6 million Delivery order 0001 was issued on Aug 2/11. This is a sole-source contract under the authority of FAR 6.302-1 (H92241-11-D-0006). See also FBO.gov.

The ZSQ-2 electro-optical turrets share a number of sub-systems in common with similar Raytheon products that equip aircraft like the MQ-9 Reaper, MH-60R Seahawk, etc., as Raytheon seeks to take things one step further with a Common Sensor Payload design for the US Army. The ZSQ-2s have begun receiving upgrades with 3rd generation FLIR night vision systems.

June 29/11: +8 CH-47F. A $174.1 million firm-fixed-price contract, covering the 4th year (FY 2011) of the current CH-47F multiyear contract, and exercising the Production Lot IX option for 8 new-build CH-47Fs.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 30/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

June 6/11: Turkey. Turkey’s DSCA request (vid. Dec 3/09) may be close to a contract, but for fewer helicopters. Hurriyet Daily News quotes an unnamed “senior procurement official,” who says that a $300 million deal for 6 of the 14 notified CH-47Fs is close to finalization, with deliveries to begin in 2013. The official added that “After the helicopters begin to arrive, we plan to make some modifications on them according to suit our specific needs.”

Contract negotiations among the SSM, the U.S. government and Boeing were launched in 2010. The deal is reportedly for 6 Army helicopters because of financial constraints, leaving the remaining 8 as a future option.

May 10/11: Training. A $23.7 million firm-fixed-price contract covers initial production fielding support for each new equipment training site equipped with the CH-47F.

Boeing describes it a bit differently, as Initial Production Fielding Support modifications on 49 CH-47F Chinook helicopters at Boeing’s Millville, NJ Modification Center, which opened in 2010. After the Chinooks are delivered from the production line in Philadelphia to the Army, they are flown to Millville, where Boeing structural and electrical employees make specialized avionics and airframe modifications to support new Army requirements. The contract will also support 2 New Equipment Training teams, who help train US Army Chinook units in the USA and abroad on the upgrades.

The US Army lists the estimated completion date as April 30/13, while Boeing says that the current contract period extends the current work of modifying Chinook aircraft at the Boeing Millville facility from May 2011 through April 2012. Both could be right; DoD announcements may not include option periods, and may cover only part of the contract’s total possible funds (W58RGZ-11-C-0093). See also Boeing release.

March 30/11: +25 CH-47F. A $528.1 million firm-fixed-price contract for 25 nCH-47F Chinooks, as the FY 2011 new-build order. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 30/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

March 3/11: ECM. Boeing receives a $13.6 million firm-fixed-price contract for CH-47F infrared suppressor systems modification B-kits. The idea is make the helicopter’s hot engine exhaust gasses less of a clear target for heat-seeking missiles. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of May 31/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Feb 16/11: Engines. Honeywell Aerospace in Phoenix, AZ received a $43.7 million firm-fixed-price contract for 50 T55-GA-714A engines and 30 T55-GA-714A engine fielding kits. Work will be performed in Phoenix, AZ, with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-04-C-0061).

Dec 28/10: +11 CH-47F. A $242 million firm-fixed-price contract for 11 CH-47F Chinook helicopters, as the FY 2011 remanufactured order. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Dec 28/10: Support. A $10 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for training, equipping, sustaining, and other support and services for the CH-47F Chinook program. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of April 30/11. One bid was solicited with one bid was received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Dec 8/10: Dutch 1st flight. 1st flight of the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) CH-47F (NL) Chinook heavy-lift helicopter. The new version is scheduled to complete its flight test program in August 2011, after approximately 100 flight hours. There are 2 aircraft in flight test as of January 2011, of the order for 6. The CH-47F-NLs will join an existing fleet of 11 CH-47Ds, as the Dutch become the 1st international customer to field an F model variant.

The new Dutch Chinooks are equipped with self-protection systems, engine air particle separators, a forward-looking infrared system, and fast rope positions, which will be used to support Special Forces operations. Boeing | DID’s full CH-47F (NL) coverage.

Dec 3/10: A $50.7 million firm-fixed-price contract commits funding for CH-47F production Lot 10 long lead time items. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Nov 3/10: Improvements. Boeing continues to work on CH-47F/MH-47G improvements. They include a redesigned rotor blade, improved engine controls for the “fat tank” MH-47Gs, and an integrated cargo roller system for the CH-47Fs. These features could be part of a new configuration set that will be finalized in June 2011. Deliveries would start in 2014, under what Boeing hopes will be a new multi-year contract.

The new blade was derived from the canceled RAH-66 Comanche scout/attack helicopter, and has a swept dihedral-anhedral blade tip, using 3 airfoil sections instead of 2. It’s designed to add 2,000 pounds of lift, without hindering forward-flight performance. Wind tunnel testing is done, and the next step is making full-size blades for dynamic and fatigue testing, followed by 2014 flight tests. Aviation Week.

Oct 28/10: Canadian criticism. Canada’s Office of the Auditor General (OAG) releases their 2010 Fall report. Canada’s CH-147 program rates a very negative verdict. Most important, they contend that the procurement process itself was unfair, and that DND kept senior decision makers in the dark about major changes to the project and its costs.

Read “On The Verge: Canada’s $4B+ Program for Medium-Heavy Transport Helicopters” for the full details, including links to background materials.

Oct 13/10: +2 CH-47F. A $43.5 million firm-fixed-price contract, exercising the option for 2 CH-47F new Chinook cargo helicopters. The order is technically placed on Sept 30/10, the last day of FY 2010. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Oct 13/10: Support. A $12 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract, covering 57,700 hours of CH-47F engineering services support, to include integration of engineering change proposals, product improvement, and other modifications to the CH-47F cargo helicopter. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/12. U.S. Army Contracting Command, CCAM-CH-A in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

FY 2010

FY 2010 buys; Requests & plans from Australia, Britain, Turkey, UAE; 100th CH-47F delivered. MH-47G, 2010 exercise
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Aug 6/10: Support. A $5.7 million cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order modification for 27,310 hours of engineering services support of “CH-47F unique items identification candidates, non-recurring engineering.” Work is to be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Jan 31/12. One bid was solicited with one bid relieved (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

DID asked about this, and the Army eventually explained that Boeing will be evaluating parts to determine where and how to permanently mark items over $5,000, or serially tracked items, with machine readable code per the Pentagon’s Item Unique Identification (IUID) mandate.

July 30/10: The 10th Mountain Division becomes the 6th US Army unit to field the CH-47F. It’s 10th Combat Aviation Brigade’s 3rd General Support Aviation Battalion has equipped its B Company at Fort Drum, NY, which will begin advanced mission training including simulated assault, troop-transport and cargo-movement exercises, and high mountain operations. Boeing.

July 22/10: #100. The 100th CH-47F rolls out of the Boeing facility near Philadelphia, PA, during a ceremony commemorating the milestone and the Army’s acceptance of the helicopter. More than 2,500 Boeing employees gathered inside the flight deck hangar to join in the commemoration. US Army | Boeing.

100th CH-47F

April 16/10: Support. A pair of cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts for engineering services, worth a combined $38.2 million for 183,993 hours. Work is to be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/11. In both cases, just 1 bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

The first contract exercises a $30.2 million option for 145,480 hours, while the second exercises an $8 million option for 38,513 hours.

Feb 25/10: Australia. The Australian Government gives second pass approval to “Project AIR 9000 Phase 5C” for 7 CH-47Fs, at a budget of AUD $755 million. This approves the plan’s details, but is not itself a contract. Australia expects to field the first 2 helicopters in 2014, with all 7 expected by 2017. The ministerial statement makes it clear that the 7 CH-47Fs would replace 5th Aviation Regiment, C squadron’s existing 6 CH-47Ds, would also be based in Townsville, and would be expected to serve until 2040.

Per the recommendations of past commissions like Australia’s famous Kinnaird Review, Senator Faulkner said the new aircraft will be procured and maintained in the same broad configuration as the United States Army CH-47Fs. Australia also promised to consider joining the USA’s Chinook Product Improvement Program as a way to keep those configurations aligned, “when information on this program is of second pass quality.” Having said all that, however, “The new Australian Chinooks will also receive some additional ADF-specific equipment to meet certain operational and safety requirements.”

CH-47F taking off
click to play video

Dec 16/09: FY 2009. A $704.4 million firm-fixed-price contract for 21 new build aircraft and 14 remanufactured CH-47s. This is the 3rd year of a multi-year contract for CH-47Fs, and work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/13. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Dec 15/09: UK plans. Gordon Brown’s Labour Party government and the British Ministry of Defence announce plans to buy 10 new CH-47 Chinook helicopters for delivery in 2012-2013, with the intent to buy another 12 Chinooks later. The Chinooks will replace the planned Future Medium Helicopter competition to field a successor for Britain’s 34 AS330 Puma HC1s, and 46 H-3 Sea Kings. This is not a formal contract yet, and it is likely but not certain that the new helicopters will be CH-47Fs with British adaptations.

Dec 8/09: Turkey request. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces Turkey’s official request for up to 14 CH-47F Chinook Helicopters, as well as 32 T55-GA-714A Turbine engines (28 fitted + 4 spares), 28 AN/ARC-201E Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Systems (SINCGARS), 14 AN/APR-39A(V)1 Radar Signal Detecting Sets, and the required special tools and test equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical documentation, site survey, personnel training and training equipment, ferry services, and U.S. Government and contractor support services.

A DSCA request is not a sale; if the sale is not blocked in Congress by Dec 22/09, and a contract is concluded later, the estimated cost of the complete package could be up to $1.2 billion.

The prime contractor will be the Boeing Company in Ridley Park, PA. There are no known offset agreements proposed in connection with this potential sale, and even though these will be Turkey’s first heavy-lift helicopters, this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to Turkey. DSCA announcement [PDF] | Defense News with Turkish reaction.

DSCA request: Turkey (14 CH-47F)

Dec 3/09: UAE request. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces the United Arab Emirates official request to buy CH-47Fs and associated systems. The estimated cost is $2 billion, the prime contractor will be Boeing Integrated Defense Systems in St. Louis, MO, and the DSCA release [PDF] adds an interesting note:

“The proposed sale will provide the United Arab Emirates the capability to transport equipment and troops in the region, as well as to support U.S. and NATO airlift requirements in Afghanistan.”[emphasis DID’s]

Though it is not discussed much, the UAE does have troops in Afghanistan, serving as part of ISAF. Implementation of this proposed sale will require the assignment of 4 contractor representatives in the UAE for a period of 1 year, with an option for 2 additional years. During helicopter delivery, 1 additional U.S. government and 4 contractor representatives will be required for 1 week for quality assurance. Specific items requested include:

• 16 CH-47F Chinook helicopters
  
• 38 T55-GA-714A Turbine engines (32 quipped, 6 spares)
  
• 20 AN/APX-118 Identification Friend or Foe Transponders
  
• 20 AN/ARC-220 (RT-1749) Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Systems (SINCGARS) with Electronic counter-countermeasures
  
• 40 AN/ARC-231 (RT-1808A) Receiver / Transmitters
  
• 18 AN/APR-39A(V)1 Radar Signal Detecting Sets with Mission Data Sets
  
• Plus flight and radar signal simulators, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical documentation, site survey, construction and facilities, and U.S. Government and contractor support.

Note that a DSCA request is not a contract, which must be signed after the 30-day Congressional blocking period has expired. The UAE also has some additional challenges these days, owing to $60 billion dollar debt default issues in Dubai. The UAE’s central government in Abu Dhabi is limiting its willingness to guarantee that debt, however.

DSCA request: UAE (16 CH-47F)

Dec 3/09: Support. Boeing in Ridley Park, PA receives a $21 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for interim contract support Phase II. Work is to be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/10. One bid was solicited with one bid received by U.S. Army Contracting Command’s Aviation & Missile Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Nov 9/09: UK. Defense News reports that Britain is planning to cancel its Future Medium Helicopter competition, and order Boeing Chinooks instead. The proposed move is part of a Ministry of Defence helicopter strategy called “Vision 2020,” which still requires approval by government ministers.

Oct 28/09: Dutch. Luchtvaartnieuws reports [dead link, in Dutch] that the 6 initial Dutch CH-47Fs will be delayed to the end of 2010, due in part to software issues. They were originally scheduled to arrive by early 2010.

The practical consequence? If the Dutch decide not to stay in Afghanistan past 2011, their CH-47Fs may not be deployed there.

Oct 19/09: Sub-contractors. VT Group US, a unit of UK-based VT Group, announces a 5-year, $29.1 million contract to provide logistics analyses and support for the Army’s fleet of CH-47D/F Chinook cargo helicopters.

Under the terms of the contract, VT Group’s Technical Services Division will provide CH-47D/F logistics fleet management, sustainment, CH-47F product manager, foreign military sales, and sustainment support related to all CH-47 cargo helicopters in the Army’s fleet. This includes logistic support to be performed for the CH-47D/F programs, subsystems, product improvements, and the Army’s modernization plan for the CH-47s.

FY 2009

FY 2009 orders; Italian buy; Australian request.

Sept 24/09: Sub-contractors. Canadian landing gear specialist Heroux-Devtek Inc. in Longeuil, PQ signs a 4-year Memorandum of Understanding with Boeing. It makes them eligible to provide landing gear for all H-47F aircraft scheduled to be delivered to export customers over the firm’s FY 2012-2016 period. Héroux-Devtek may also be considered for an intellectual property license to service variants in the worldwide fleet of over 1,000 Chinook helicopters, and the firm is especially interested in that aftermarket services opportunity.

This MOU follows the Canadian government’s Aug 10/09 announcement to order 15 new “CH-147” Medium to Heavy Lift Helicopters, and supports Boeing’s Industrial & Regional Benefits commitment for the MHLH program. Heroux-Devtek release [PDF].

Sept 17/09: Turkey. Turkey is moving closer to a CH-47F contract, and its SSM procurement agency has reportedly added 4 Combat Search & Rescue (CSAR)/ Special Operations versions to its desired buy, raising the total to 14. Flight International reports that a letter of request has now been issued, and a contract signature is expected by mid-2010 via the USA’s Foreign Military Sales mechanism.

Sept 14/09: +6 MH-47G. A $17.8 million firm-fixed-price contract involving 6 MH-47G Recap, Lot 7 Recap Aircraft. Work is to be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of May 30/10 (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

As the price might suggest, this is not the full remanufacturing cost. Boeing representatives confirmed that it will be used to refurbish rotor blades, transmissions, and other re-used parts as part of the overall remanufacturing process.

Aug 3/09: +5 CH-47F. A $108.8 million firm-fixed-price contract for CH-47F multiyear contract option for 5 new-build CH-47s, as part of FY 2009/ Production lot 7. Work is to be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/13. One bid solicited with one bid received (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

July 1/09: Australia. Shephard Group reports that Australia may not place a contract order for new CH-47Fs until 2012, and doesn’t expect to field them before 2016-2018. In the interim, Australia hopes to issue maintenance support tenders for its 6 existing CH-47Ds.

The original acquisition plan, approved by the Liberal Party government, would have bought 3 new-build CH-47Fs, and remanufactured existing CH-47Ds to CH-47F configuration. The new Defence Capability Plan, issued this day, revises the timeline.

May 13/09: Italian order. Italy’s ARMAEREO procurement agency signs a EUR 900 million ($1.23 billion equivalent) contract to buy 16 CH-47F heavy-lift helicopters for the Italian Army, with an option for 4 more. Read “Italy Buying CH-47F Helicopters” for more details, and updates.

Italy: 16 CH-47Fs

April 23/09: Australia request. The USA’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Australia’s official request to buy 7 CH-47F Chinook helicopters with 14 T55-GA-714A Turbine engines, 7 Dillon Aero M134D 7.62mm Miniguns, 16 AN/ARC-201D Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radios (SINCGARS), 7 Force XXI Battle Command Brigade and Below Blue Force Trackers (FBCB2/BFT), 2 spare T-55-GA-714A Turbine engines, plus mission equipment, communication and navigation equipment, ground support equipment, spare and repair parts, special tools and test equipment, technical data and publications, personnel training and training equipment, and support.

The estimated cost is $560 million, but a DSCA request is not a contract. See “Australia Ordering CH-47F Chinooks” for further details and updates.

DSCA request: Australia (7 CH-47F)

April 23/09: +7 CH-47F. A $142 million firm-fixed-price contract for 7 new-build CH-47Fs in FY 2009, adding helicopters to the existing multi-year contract (see Aug 27/08) under production Lot 7 (see Dec 24/08). Work is to be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/13. One bid was solicited and one bid received.

Note that the 5-year contract includes options for up to 24 additional helicopters over its lifetime, in addition to agreed yearly production figures. This order brings Lot 7 production to 38 helicopters: 23 new-build CH-47Fs, and 15 remanufactured CH-47Fs (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

April 13/09: Boeing announces that a 4th U.S. Army unit has fielded the CH-47F Chinook: Company B of the 82nd Airborne Division’s 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade, 3rd General Support Aviation Battalion at Fort Bragg, N.C.

Feb 26/09: Delivery. Boeing announces delivery of the first CH-47F Chinook manufactured under the 5-year U.S. Army contract awarded in August 2008. The helicopter will be assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, NC, the 4th unit scheduled to be equipped under the Army’s ongoing Chinook modernization program.

1st MYP CH-47F

Dec 24/08: +31 CH-47F. A $620.7 million firm-fixed-price contract for 31 Lot 7 production CH-47Fs, built under the 2nd year of the multi-year contract announced on Aug 27/08. This FY 2008 / Year 2 order includes 16 new-build CH-47Fs, 15 remanufactured CH-47Fs, plus Lot 8 long lead time items.

These contracts also include integration of “government furnished equipment” like engines, electronics, and defensive systems, but the equipment itself is bought under separate contracts. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/13. One bid was solicited and one bid received by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command at Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-08-C-0098).

Dec 19/08: +6 MH-47G. A $114 million firm-fixed price contract for a modification that finalizes both long lead items for, and the procurement or remanufacture of, 6 Special Forces MH-47E aircraft to the MH-47G configuration.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA and Middletown, DE and is expected to be complete by May 30/11. One bid was solicited on May 8/08 by the Aviation Integration Directorate at Aviation and Missile Command, Fort Eustis, VA (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Dec 15/08: Support. A $12.7 million cost plus fixed price contract for CH-47F Interim Contractor Support. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA with an estimated completion date of Dec 31/09. One bid was solicited and one bid was received (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Nov 18/08: Boeing announces that its CH-47F Chinook helicopter has been fielded by Bravo Company, 2nd Battalion, 227th Aviation Regiment, 1st Air Cavalry Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division in Fort Hood, TX. This is the 3rd U.S. Army unit to field the CH-47F since the aircraft was certified combat-ready in July 2007.

Nov 14/08: Sub-contractors. Eaton Corp. announces that it will receive new work from Boeing Company, as part of the CH-47F multi-year contract. Specific terms were not disclosed, but Eaton will supply a hydraulic system engine pump, motor pump and control box and the hydraulic control valves; fluid conveyance system hoses, tubes and fittings; lubrication system components and the helicopter’s engines health debris monitoring components.

FY 2008

USA’s Multi-Year Buy; Canadian buy; Italian partnership; CAAS cockpit ready; Sabotage. CH-47F, Ft. Hood
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Aug 27/08: MYP-I. Boeing announces a 5-year, $4.3 billion U.S. Army contract for 181 CH-47F Chinooks, and 10 additional Chinooks under FY 2008 supplemental funding. There are also options in the award for an additional 24 helicopters over the course of the contract, which would bring the total to 215.

The DefenseLINK release describes an initial $722.7 million payment on the firm-fixed-price multiyear contract (W58RGZ-08-C-0098), which runs until Sept 30/13. It comprises 109 CH-47F new-build aircraft, 72 CH-47F remanufactured aircraft, and priced options for 34 CH-47F new build aircraft (10 FY08 + 24 options).

Boeing claims the multi-year award creates production security for the Boeing Rotorcraft Systems facility in Ridley Township, PA, and for its sub-contractors in over 45 states. They also claim a cost savings of more than $449 million for the U.S. Army. To date, Boeing has delivered 48 CH-47F helicopters to the U.S. Army, training and equipping two units, with a 3rd unit scheduled to stand up in August 2008. The helicopters are currently undergoing its first deployment to Iraq. Boeing release.

MYP Contract

July 16/08: Italian partnership. Boeing and Finmeccanica SpA subsidiary AgustaWestland sign an agreement that defines the terms for the joint manufacture of new CH-47F Chinook helicopters to replace earlier models used by the Italian Army. Orders are expected to follow, and not just from Italy. The agreement also includes a licensing arrangement that lets AgustaWestland to market, sell and produce the Boeing CH-47F Chinook to the United Kingdom, other European countries, and “several countries in the Mediterranean region.”

AgustaWestland has been Boeing’s European partner for other versions of the CH-47, and this new agreement continues and extends that relationship. As prime contractor for the Italian CH-47F, AgustaWestland will be responsible for design and systems integration, and for aircraft delivery to the Italian Army. Boeing Rotorcraft Systems will build the fuselage in Ridley Park, PA. Boeing release | AgustaWestland release.

Italian partnership

May 13/08: Sabotage. During QA inspections, a pair of newly assembled Chinook helicopters at the Boeing plant south of Philadelphia are found to have severed wires in them, and a propeller part (washer) where one didn’t belong. The incident was subsequently determined to be deliberate sabotage, and the production line was closed for 2 days. Digital Journal, “Two Chinook Helicopters Sabotaged At Boeing Plant” | Boeing release May 15 | Philly.com, “Probe at Boeing plant shoddy workmanship or sabotage”.

Sabotage

May 6/08: Engines. Honeywell International of Phoenix, AZ received a maximum $48.9 million, Firm-Fixed price Indefinite Delivery/ Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract for Engine and Maintenance Support for the T55-GA-714A Engines and Components used on the MH-47G Helicopters. Work will primarily be performed at Greer, SC and is expected to be completed by Dec 31/12. This contract was awarded as a sole source, to the firm that makes the engines (H92241-08-D-0006).

April 7/08: Canada contract. Canada’s Ministry of Public Works and Government Services announces a March 2008 sole-source RFP to Boeing for 16 CH-47F Chinook helicopters, plus 20 years of associated in-service support (ISS), with an extension option for the life expectancy of the aircraft.

These helicopters use CH-47Fs as their base, but include so many modifications that they’re almost a different helicopter. That ends up costing the Canadians. See the June 28/06 entry for details, and read “On The Verge: Canada’s $4.7B Program for Medium-Heavy Transport Helicopters” for full coverage. Canada is also looking to buy 6 CH-47D helicopters for delivery before February 2009. They end up being used in Afghanistan in order to meet Parliament’s requirements for continuing the mission, and could be upgraded after the CH-47Fs arrive.

Canada: 16 “CH-147”

Feb 1/08: FY 2008. A “large firm-fixed price contract [for 10] CH-47F new build production helicopters” is announced on DefenseLINK. DID is later able to confirm the figure: $280.5 million. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA and is expected to be complete by Dec 31/12. One bid was solicited on Dec 31/03, and 1 bid was received by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-04-C-0012).

A Feb 27/08 Boeing release corrects the number 11 helicopters, and adds that this award brings the number of new CH-47F Chinooks on contract to 59. Aircraft deliveries under this award will begin in 2011.

11 CH-47Fs

Oct 8/07: CAAS. Rockwell Collins announces that its Common Avionics Architecture System (CAAS) in the Boeing CH-47F cockpit has been declared operationally ready for deployment by the U.S. Army. The CAAS upgrades/suites were delivered on time, and on budget.

Initially developed for US Special Operations Forces’ MH-47 and MH-60 helicopter fleets, Rockwell Collins’ CAAS solution was subsequently incorporated into the UH-60M, MH-60T, VH-60N Presidential helicopter, ARH-70A, and the CH-53E and CH-53K.

CH-47F CAAS ready

FY 2006 – 2007

US orders; 1st production rollout; CH-47F declared combat-ready; HH-47’s CSAR-X crash begins; Europe’s notional HLR; Requests & plans in Canada, Italy, Netherlands. CH-47F, Ft. Irwin
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Sept 14/07: +1. A $25.5 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract (W58RGZ-04-C-0012) for a CH-47F New Build Production Helicopter. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA and is expected to be complete by Dec 31/12. This was a sole source contract initiated on Dec 31/03 by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command at Redstone Arsenal, AL.

1 CH-47F

Sept 4/07: Europe. Defense Aerospace reports that the Franco-Germany Heavy Lift Helicopter (HTL/FTH) program may not involve full development of a new design, and says that 3 helicopters are being evaluated in the initial phase: the Boeing CH-47F Chinook, the Sikorsky CH-53K project, and Mil’s Mi-26T. See DID’s in-depth coverage of this program, its emerging requirements, and the contenders. That “growth version” of the CH-47F would appear to be necessary if Boeing wants to be a serious competitor.

Aug 17/07: Jane’s International Defence Review reports that: “Boeing is looking to enhance the workhorse helicopter to improve range and payload. Director of Boeing H-47 programmes Jack Dougherty said in a presentation to reporters at Fort Campbell that the company continues to fund research into the possibility of a “growth Chinook” beyond the CH-47F.”

Aug 14/07: Combat-ready. The CH-47F Chinook helicopter has been certified combat-ready by the U.S. Army and 13 have been fielded to the first operational unit: the 101st Airborne Division’s Bravo Company (“Varsity”), 7th Battalion, 101st Aviation Regiment, 159th Combat Aviation Brigade, based at Ft. Campbell, KY. Boeing release.

Combat ready

July 16/07: Boeing announces U.S. Army authorization for full-rate production and fielding of the new CH-47F Chinook helicopter, following operational testing at Fort Campbell, KY, in April 2007. Boeing will now move forward with First Unit Fielding in July 2007. Boeing release.

FRP

July 8/07: CH-47F new. A $76.5 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for CH-47F new build production helicopters. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA and is expected to be complete by Dec. 31, 2012. This was a sole source contract initiated on Dec. 31, 2003 (W58RGZ-04-C-0012).

CH-47F new-build

July 5/07: MH-47G. Boeing Co. in Ridley Park, PA receives a delivery order amount of $52.7 million as part of a $147.3 million firm-fixed-price contract for remanufacture of H-47 aircraft to the MH-47G configuration.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA (98.3%), and Middletown, DE (1.7%), and is expected to be complete by Aug. 30, 2008. This was a sole source contract initiated on June 28, 2006 by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command, Fort Eustis, VA (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

July 5/07: MH-47G. Boeing Co. in Ridley Park, PA receives a delivery order amount of $6.5 million as part of a $112.5 million firm-fixed-price contract for remanufacture of H-47 Aircraft to the MH-47G configuration, and an option for additional aircraft.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA (98.3%), and Middletown, DE (1.7%), and is expected to be complete by May 31, 2010. This was a sole source contract initiated on April 11, 2007 by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command in Fort Eustis, VA (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

MH-47G rebuilds

June 18/07: Testing. Boeing announces that the CH-47F Chinook helicopter has successfully completed U.S. Army operational testing at Ft. Campbell, KY. Testing was completed ahead of schedule by Bravo Company (Varsity), 7th Battalion, 101st Aviation Regiment, 159th Combat Aviation Brigade, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault); the tests simulated numerous mission scenarios, including air assault, combat re-supply and transport operations, over more than 60 flight test hours. Boeing release.

CH-47F testing done

April 5/07: Italy. Boeing Corp. says it expects that Italy will buy 16-20 CH-47Fs, through a joint production agreement with Italian conglomerate Finmecccanica SpA. The deal has reportedly been in the works for a while, and Boeing said it expects the orders around 2008-2009.

Boeing spokesman Joseph LaMarca says that the expected Italian purchase will be a direct commercial sale, with AgustaWestland as the prime contractor and Boeing as the lead subcontractor. In 2006, the 2 companies signed a new memorandum of understanding that lays out an industrial agreement for further Italian Chinook production. World Aeronautical Press Agency.

March 3/07: MH-47G. A delivery order amount of $48.2 million as part of a $69.9 million firm-fixed-price contract for long lead items used to remanufacture Chinooks to the MH-47G US Special Forces configuration. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA (98.3%), and Middletown, DE (1.7%), and is expected to be complete by Aug. 30, 2008. This was a sole source contract initiated on Jun. 28, 2006 by the U.S. Army Aviation Integration Directorate in Fort Eustis, VA (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Feb 27/06: CSAR-X hits turbulence, eventually crashes. The US Government Accountability Office upholds protests by Sikorsky & Lockheed Martin. It orders the USAF to re-bid the CSAR-X contract, and cancel Boeing’s HH-47 contract if another firm is deemed to have the better bid. This kicks off an acrimonious process featuring revisions to the RFP, public criticism by the contractors involved, and a second round of protests. It eventually leads to Air Force cancellation of the entire CSAR-X program.

CSAR-X begins its crash

Feb 19/07: Testing. The first production CH-47F has moved into Operational Testing at Ft. Campbell, KY after completing acceptance and developmental flight testing in December 2006. This phase, which ends in April 2007, includes more than 60 flight test hours that simulate a wide range of mission scenarios. Flight tests will be conducted by Bravo Company, 7th Battalion, 101st Aviation Regiment, 159th Combat Aviation Brigade, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault). Boeing release.

Dec 22/06: CH-47F rebuilds. The full delivery order amount of $650.3 million is received as part of a firm-fixed-price contract for CH-47F remanufacture. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA, and is expected to be complete by Dec. 31, 2009. This was a sole source contract initiated on July 28, 2005 (W58RGZ-04-G-0023).

Dec 22/06: New CH-47Fs. A $406.4 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for the CH-47F new build helicopters. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA, and is expected to be complete by Dec. 31, 2012. This was a sole source contract initiated on July 28, 2005 (W58RGZ-04-C-0012).

Dec 22/06 – Boeing addendum: A Jan 3/06 press release from Boeing puts the total value of these contracts at $1.5 billion, and describes the order as production contracts for 16 new-build CH-47Fs and 9 remanufactured CH-47Fs valued at $624 million, plus options for 22 additional new-build CH-47Fs and 19 remanufactured CH-47Fs valued at more than $920 million. Presumably, the $406.4 million announcement represents the 19 remanufactured aircraft, with an $515 million option still outstanding for the 22 new-build CH-47Fs. Aircraft deliveries will begin in early 2008.

25 CH-47Fs, options for 41

Nov 9/06: CSAR-X. Boeing announces that it has won the $10 billion CSAR-X combat search-and-rescue competition with its HH-47 variant. The contract calls for 145 aircraft: 4 test platforms, and 141 production helicopters. It’s eventually canceled. See DID’s FOCUS Article.

CSAR-X “win”

Nov 7/06: New CH-47Fs. A $163.3 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for CH-47F New Build Production Helicopters. Based on past order totals and contract values, this will buy the US Army about 8 CH-47Fs.

Work will be performed in Philadelphia, PA, and is expected to be complete by Dec. 29, 2009. This was a sole source contract initiated on Dec. 31, 2003 (W58RGZ-04-C-0012).

First flight
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Oct 23/06: The first production CH-47F Chinook helicopter successfully completes its first flight from the Boeing Rotorcraft Systems facility in Ridley Park, PA.

1st CH-47F flight

Sept 27/06: Dutch request. US DSCA notifies Congress of the Netherlands’ request for up to 9 new CH-47F helicopters along with 18 of Honeywell’s T55-L-714A turbine engines and 18 Common Architecture Avionics System (CAAS) cockpits. The latter set will be used as spares, and will also help upgrade 11 of its existing CH-47D Chinook Cargo Helicopters to CH-47F configuration. The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $652 million, and principal contractors in this sale will also include Honeywell, Incorporated of Phoenix, AZ.

In February 2007, a contract is issued for only 6 new-build CH-47F (NL) helicopters, without the CAAS cockpits. DID details the new helicopters, and explains what’s going on.

Dutch request 9, buy 6

June 28/06: Canada. Canada announces an estimated $4.7 billion project to acquire a fleet of 16 medium-to heavy-lift helicopters. The announcement is made as an Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN), which permits the Government to identify an intended contract award winner (in this case, the Boeing CH-47F Chinook) and then buy that choice unless an offer deemed to be better is received from industry within 30 days. See complete DID coverage in “On The Verge: Canada’s $4.7B Program for Medium-Heavy Transport Helicopters“, including the links to the situation on the ground in Afghanistan, and some potential timing issues for the CH-47F.

June 15/06: The first production CH-47F Chinook helicopter is unveiled to the U.S. Army during a rollout ceremony in Ridley Park, PA. See Boeing release.

CH-47F rollout

April 18/06: A $7.5 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for long lead parts for the CH-47 Helicopter. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA and is expected to be complete by Nov. 30, 2008. This was a sole source contract initiated on April 1, 2005 (W58RGZ-04-C-0012).

Awards under contract # W58RGZ-04-C-0012 have also included:

• Feb 16/06: $24.4M for undefined new-build CH-47F
  
• Aug 30/05: $53.4M for 2 new-build CH-47F
  
• May 10/05: 186.2M for undefined new-build CH-47F
  
• Dec 23/04: $243.0M for 10 new-build CH-47F
  
• Dec 05/03: $151.5M for 7 new-build CH-47F

See Appendix A for more details.

Appendix A: Reconciling Previous Contracts and Numbers Helping hand
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The problem DID ran into was difficulty reconciling announced contracts with corporate releases and also getting a firmer set of numbers, in order to get a more complete picture. A January 12, 2005 Boeing press release, for instance, noted that Boeing had signed a $549 million contract on Dec. 21, 2004 with the U.S. Army for 17 new-build CH-47F Chinook helicopters. This included seven aircraft authorized in December 2003 as part of the FY ’03 supplemental defense appropriation bill, and 10 aircraft approved in the current fiscal year defense budget (which ended Oct 2005, by which point the contract announcements had risen to $634.1M).

Fortunately, Boeing CH-47 Program Manager Ken Eland bails us out with an excellent explanation. Photos and links added…

“Chinook contract history is complex, because it involves both undefinitized contract actions (UCAs), which you may consider initial contract agreements, that lay out approximate monetary values for statements of work, and the full contract awards, subject to a large number of terms and conditions that specify in very minute detail costs for each step we undertake in the production process, starting with procurement of components and systems.

On December 5, 2003, Boeing and the Army agreed on an undefinitized contract action for $151.5 million to cover initial costs for development and production of seven new-build CH-47Fs. The funding for this action came from a supplemental appropriation. The purpose of the UCA was to energize the program quickly, given the availability of funds. The appropriation was not the final contract value, but an authorization value for the contract we would sign the following year.

CH-47F
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We signed the full contract in December of 2004, with a definitized value of $306.4 million.

We also signed a contract in December of 2004 for $243 million for ten new-build CH-47Fs. We had, in other words, booked 17 brand new CH-47Fs to add to the Army’s existing Chinook fleet, all of which we are modernizing under the Cargo Helicopter Modernization Program that we initiated in 2003, with first deliveries for Production Lot 1 in 2004. That program is slated to continue until about 2019 under the current production and delivery schedule. The 17 new CH-47Fs are the first installment of 55 currently authorized to increase the Army’s Chinook fleet.

To effectuate this change, we modified the previous definitized contract, increasing its value to $549 million ($243 million + $306.4 million).

On May 10, 2005, we agreed to a contract action for $186.2 million for “Renew” CH-47Fs. These aircraft are inducted CH-47Ds that are remanufactured into CH-47Fs. We have termed these aircraft with new fuselages “Renew” rather than remanufactured, to distinguish from those with modernized rather than new fuselages. Production Lot 3 involves 8 CH-47Fs, all of which will utilize new structures. All aircraft in Production Lots 1 and 2 used reconditioned fuselages, and were MH-47G Special Operation Chinooks, except the first one, a CH-47F.

In August 2005, we also added $53.4 million in another undefinitized contract agreement for two more CH-47Fs. This amount was a not-to-exceed (NTE) value, and we later definitized the actual value at $48.6 million for two new CH-47Fs. A modification was also included for additional configuration items to the CH-47F baseline valued at $19M. This increased the value of the New Build contract to $616.6M ($549M + $48.6M + $19M)

We also were awarded a $298.1 million contract for the Cargo Helicopter Modernization Program for Production Lot 4, consisting of 15 renewed CH-47Fs. This amount will cover recapitalization of aircraft systems and any over and above costs we incur for unplanned modernization work that may occur due to the condition of the inducted aircraft.

This month, February 2006, we added another $24.4 million contract for one additional new-build CH-47F.

So, our current contract status is as follows:

• We have a contract in place for 20 new build CH-47Fs with a total value of $640 million that also includes nonrecurring costs associated with development. ($549 million + $48.6 million + $19M + $24.4 million, rounded to take into account other minor contract modifications).

• Our Cargo Helicopter Modernization Program involves renewed CH-47Fs for Production Lots #3 (8 aircraft) and #4 (15 aircraft) totaling 23 aircraft with a contract value of $484 million.

• Lots 1 and 2 already have been delivered. As noted, all except one CH-47F, the initial delivery in Lot 1, have been MH-47G Special Operations Chinooks. FYI, we delivered 22 G models in those two lots.

• Deliveries of the 17 new-build [DID: CH-47F] Chinooks will begin in September 2006 and continue through the end of 2008.”

N.B. The contracts for Lot 1 and Lot 2 related to CH-47F model are not included in this article. The values discussed here only reflected models starting with Lot 3, and the initial New Build contract.

Additional Readings Background: Helicopters

• Boeing – CH-47D/F Chinook.

• Boeing, via WayBack – MH-47E/G Special Operations Chinook.

• Army Technology – CH-47D/MH-47E Chinook Heavy Lift Helicopter, USA.

• The Helicopter Page, via WayBack – How Helicopters Work. Actually, all about the H-47 Chinook and how tandem-rotor helicopters work. Very enlightening. Especially the story at the end.

• Chinook Helicopters and Company H, 4th Battalion, 7th Aviation Regiment: “CH-47 Chinook Helicopter News and History”, via WayBack – Chinook-Helicopter.com. Excellent site for all things related to the CH-47, with an especially impressive set of pages, photos, etc. covering actual operations.

National CH-47F Family Variants

• DID – Australia Ordering CH-47F Chinooks. They avoided the extra costs and delays the Canadian and Dutch faced, by buying standard American configuration. Major procurement reform reports like the Kinnaird Review have consistently recommended that sort of approach.

• DID – Britain Ordering More Chinooks. Their “CH-47 Mk.6” sure sounds a lot like the CH-47F, with some changes.

• DID – On The Verge: Canada’s $4B+ Program for Medium-Heavy Transport Helicopters. Covers Canada’s CH-147s, which are a unique configuration. That really drove up costs.

• DID – Chinooks for the Dutch: The CH-47F (NL) Heavy-Lift Helicopter. Not the same configuration as the US model.

• DID – Italy Buying CH-47F Helicopters. Known as “ICH-47Fs” there. The prime contractor is AgustaWestland, who will complete final assembly and has a license to sell and produce the CH-47F for Britain, other European countries, and “several countries in the Mediterranean region.” That extends similar arrangements with previous CH-47 models.

News & Views

• Boeing Features (Aug 19/13) – Making a ‘cool’ Chinook. Deals with the COOLS convertible cargo floor, includes a video.

• Rotorhub (Oct 23/12) – AUSA 2012: Boeing preparing for next steps on Chinook roadmap.

• Flight International, via WayBack (April 1/08) – New Chinook models extend heavylift helicopter’s life.

CH-53K concept
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The U.S. Marines have a problem. They rely on their CH-53E Super Stallion medium-heavy lift helicopters to move troops, vehicles, and supplies off of their ships. But the helicopters are wearing out. Fast. The pace demanded by the Global War on Terror is relentless, and usage rates are 3 times normal. Attrition is taking its toll. Over the past few years, CH-53s have been recalled from “boneyard” storage at Davis-Monthan AFB in Tucson, AZ, in order to maintain fleet numbers in the face of recent losses and forced retirements. Now, there are no flyable spares left.

Enter the Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR) program, now known as the CH-53K. It aims to offer notable performance improvements over the CH-53E, in a similar airframe. The question is whether its service entry delay to 2018-2019 will come too late to offset a serious decline in Marine aviation.

The HLR Program Lifts Off Sikorksy on HLR, 2011

The $25.5 billion, 200-helicopter CH-53K program will define the long-term future of the US Marine Corps’ medium-heavy lift capabilities – and may be needed to save Marine aviation in the medium term.

On average, existing CH-53E aircraft are more than 15 years old, have over 3,000 flight hours under tough conditions, and are becoming more and more of a maintenance challenge with a 44:1 maintenance man-hours:flight hours ratio. Not to mention the resulting $20,000 per flight-hour cost ratio. According to Jane’s Defense Weekly, a 1999 analysis showed that the existing fleet has a service life of 6,120 flight hours, based on fatigue at the weakest point where the tail folds. The USMC expected that the existing fleet would start to reach this point in 2011, at a rate of 15 aircraft per year. The funding profile below suggests a problem for the Corps:

Excel
download

The Marine Corps itself is the source of the disconnect. The HLR program initially called for 156 new-build helicopters derived from the CH-53E Super Stallion design, with initial flight tests in 2010-2011, and initial operating capability (IOC) in 2014-2015. IOC was defined as a detachment of 4 aircraft, with combat ready crews, and prepared to deploy with all required equipment and spares.

In 2010, however, the Marines grew the program plan to 200 helicopters, even as they pushed its initial flight back to FY 2013, and IOC back to FY 2018. The program wasn’t experiencing problems, and no reasons were given, beyond statements concerning the program’s aggressive schedule. Further slippage has occurred since. Here’s the full timeline:

Up, up, and…
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The current schedule creates a number of risks for the Marine Corps. There’s no question that pushing the CH-53K program back will leave the Marines with a dwindling heavy-lift helicopter fleet, whose size, capability, and safety are governed by mechanical realities rather than political diktat. In April 2010, the US military ran out of stored CH-53D/E airframes to refurbish and return to the front lines. In February 2011, the USMC retired its CH-53D fleet altogether.

The other risk is political. On the one hand, the CH-53K is a large program, and the farther the Marines push it away, the easier it is to cut amidst budget crises. With its heavy-lift fleet dwindling, that could be disastrous for the force. On the other hand, budgetary crises also look for programs that are late or experiencing problems, and the CH-53K is big enough to earn a lot of attention if it’s seen as screwing up. That fact that the original schedule was overly aggressive wouldn’t be remembered.

Was the move to push the CH-53K back an act of political negligence, to protect less critical programs like the V-22? Or was it an act of supreme prudence, which will lead to a strong program that survives precisely because it goes out and meets its targets? Opinions vary. Time will tell.

Current Status Some assembly required
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US Navy PMA-261 is responsible for the CH-53K program. Sikorsky is currently working under a $3.5 – 4 billion System Development and Demonstration (SDD) contract, to include 4 SDD flight test helicopters, 1 ground test airframe, and associated program management and test support. As the development timeline stretched out, 6 System Development Test Aircraft were added to to that mix. To date, Sikorsky’s industrial partners include:

The CH-53X / CH-53K Mission example
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The CH-53K’s maximum gross weight (MGW) will increase to 88,000 pounds with external loads, versus 73,500 pounds for the CH-53E. MGW with internal loads will be 74,000 pounds, compared to 69,750 pounds for the CH-53E. It’s being designed to carry a cargo load of 27,000 pounds (13.5 tons) 110 nautical miles, operating at an altitude of 3,000 feet and an ambient temperature of 91.5 degrees Fahrenheit. This is nearly double the capacity of the current CH-53E Super Stallions, all in a helicopter that’s roughly the same size.

Those altitude and temperature qualifications matter, too, because “hot and high” conditions lower aircraft load carrying capabilities and combat radius – especially for helicopters. This reduced performance has recently been a factor during operations in Afghanistan and relief efforts in Pakistan, for instance, and has been a factor with earlier models of the C-130 Hercules as well. Figures for the CH-53K operating entirely around sea level and in cooler temperatures would be higher, but would not be double that of existing CH-53Es.

As an example of these variables at work, Sikorsky’s CH-53K brochure states that the improved CH-53K will have a maximum external load of 16.3t/ 36,000 lbs. On the other hand, an operation that carries an externally-slung load from sea level to a point 3,000 feet above sea level, with a total range there and back of 220 nautical miles/ 407 km, and 30 minute loiter at the landing zone, would have a maximum mission load of only 12.25t/ 27,000 lbs.

MRAP: RG-31, IEDed
(click to view story)

Even at sea level, however, increased lift capacity will be important. As the Hummer’s fundamental lack of survivability began to marginalize it on the battlefield, the Marines led the charge to field “MRAP” blast-resistant vehicle designs instead. While an up-armored HMMWV weighs about 9,100 pounds empty, the lightest Category 1 MRAP patrol vehicles check in at weights ranging from 16,000 – 31,000 pounds, and even the “light” JLTVs that will replace a large segment of the HMMWV fleet are expected to weigh 14,000 – 20,000 pounds.

Those weights mean that tactical operations to airlift mobile forces ashore beyond the beach, or within the zone of operations, will have only one helicopter available that can get the job done: the CH-53.

If the Marines think their CH-53 fleet is seeing heavy use now, just wait.

New Technologies CH-53K concept
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In order to meet those requirements, the CH-53K will be depending on a number of new technologies. No one technology constitutes a big stretch, which is good news for the program. Instead, a host of technologies that have been developed since the CH-53E program will be refined, and used in inter-related areas. For the basic outlines of many low-risk CH-53X/CH-53K improvements, read “

/http://www.vtol.org/pdf/garmspring02.pdf">An Affordable Solution To Heavy Lift” [PDF] by Lt. Col. James C. Garman, an H-53 family pilot and Senior Preliminary Design Engineer in Sikorsky’s New Product Definition Group. See also this interview with former HLR program manager Col. Paul Croisetiere.

The most important new addition to the CH-53K will be its 7,500shp class GE38 / T408 engines, which have already hit 8,300 shp in ground tests. The military is hoping for 18% better specific fuel consumption than the similarly sized T64 engine, even though the engine would produce 57% more power. To improve maintenance and reliability, the GE38 is also expected to have 63% fewer parts.

Other technologies slated for the CH-53K include a “glass” [digital] cockpit that has high commonality and interoperability with existing Army and Navy helicopters, high-efficiency rotor blades with anhedral tips that have 12% (main) and 15% (tail) more surface area, plus different construction to handle higher loads; a composite cuff attachment that attaches the main blades directly to an elastomerically-articulated titanium rotor head, without the need for specialized tools or multiple redundant fasteners; a cargo rail locking system; external cargo improvements, survivability enhancements, and enhancements designed to extend service life.

Changes will be made as the program progresses, and engineers get a better sense of which technologies are ready, and which would create risks to the program. For example, the CH-53K was going to use a “viscoelastic lag damper” for the rotors, in order to minimize vibration and stress. It was removed in order to speed up deployment, and a modified version of standard linear hydraulic dampers will be used instead. The Navy hopes to achieve 2x reliability compared to the existing CH-53Es, but gave up the potential for 4x reliability, in exchange for less development risk.

Sikorsky on CH-53K

Given the CH-53E’s large maintenance ratio, reliability will matter. As former HLR program manager Col. Paul Croisetiere put it in a NAVAIR release:

“Given the CH-53E’s operational costs and maintenance demands, heavy lift has built its reputation for excellence on the backs of our maintainers… We are going to take our maintainers somewhere they’ve rarely been before. Home for dinner.”

Several decades of weapon program history suggest that the odds of meeting this goal are low. Instead, the trend is that these promises are made, but more advanced and complex weapons wind up having more points of failure, and require even more maintenance. If the CH-53K program can break that cycle, it would represent a landmark success in Pentagon weapons acquisition.

Contracts & Key Events

Unless otherwise noted, all contracts are issued by US Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD.

FY 2014 – 2016

Takeoff?
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March 17/16: The second prototype of the CH-53K helicopter made its maiden flight in January according to Lockheed company Sikorsky. In addition, the first aircraft into the test program has achieved flight envelope expansion to 120 knots for the USMC’s CH-53K King Stallion heavy lift helicopter program. The two are the most heavily instrumented of the Engineering Development Models (EDM) and will focus on structural flight loads and envelope expansion. Two more will join the flight line later this year and will focus on performance, propulsion, and avionics flight qualification.

January 5/16: The USMC seems to have given the seal of approval to the latest CH-53 after the first marine pilot to test the helicopter commended its abilities. Lt. Col. Jonathan Morel tested the CH-53K King Stallion which is set to become the largest and heaviest helicopter in the US military. Two hundred of the rotorcraft will be procured by the USMC in a deal worth $25.5 billion.

October 29/15: The Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion helicopter has flown for the first time, eleven months behind schedule. The new helicopter is intended to replace the Marine Corps’ fleet of CH-53E Super Stallion heavy lift helicopters, with the new design boasting three times the lift capability of the older model. The first CH-53K, known as Engineering Development Model-1 (EMD-1) will be joined by an additional three aircraft to undergo 2,000 flight hours of testing.

July 31/14: Engines. General Electric in Lynn, A receives a $68.6 million firm-fixed-price contract modification for 16 GE38-1B engines, closure kits, tooling, and associated systems engineering and program management in support of the CH-53K helicopter program’s Operational Evaluation phase. This is on top of the July 17/13 contract for “time critical parts”, and the $84.3 million total represents the first engine buy beyond the 20 covered by the System Development & Demonstration contract. $22.5 million in FY 2013 – 2014 US Navy RDT&E budgets are committed immediately.

Note that each CH-53K is equipped with 3 engines. Work will be performed in Lynn, MA, and is expected to be complete in January 2017 (N00019-13-C-0132). See also GE, “U.S. Navy Awards GE38 Engine Production Contract”.

June 9/14: Leadership. PMA-261 Program Manager U.S. Marine Corps Col. Robert Pridgen turns over command to Col. Henry Vanderborght, a long-time CH-53E pilot, former John Glenn Test Pilot of the Year, and former Light/Attack Helicopters (PMA-276) platform team lead for UH-1Y production and the UH-1N’s sundown. Vanderbought wasn’t actually a full Colonel until he was promoted on the morning of the change-of-command ceremony.

Pridgen will become the program manager for the Presidential Helicopters Program (PMA-274) in July 2014. Sources: US NAVAIR, “Heavy-lift helicopters program welcomes new program manager”.

May 5/14: Naming. Sikorsky officially unveils their CH-53K flight test helicopter EDM-2, and the USMC officially names the type “King Stallion”.

One can see the natural extension from the CH53A/D Sea Stallion and CH-53E Super Stallion, but there comes a point where one can push the boundaries in unintended directions. Maybe they were thinking of the 1942 movie with Chief Thundercloud. In the modern era, people are more likely to think that somewhere, an adult entertainer wants his name back. Sources, Sikorsky, “Sikorsky Unveils CH-53K Helicopter; U.S. Marine Corps Reveals Aircraft Name” | South Florida Sun-Sentinel, “Sikorsky introduces new ‘King Stallion’ helicopter” | Stamford Advocate, “Sikorsky unveils its new King Stallion heavy lift helicopter”.

“King Stallion”

May 1/14: Testing. Sikorsky announces that full testing is finally moving ahead with the non-flying GTV, including powered “light-off” with all 7 main rotor blades and 4 tail rotor blades spinning, and powered by its three 7,500 horsepower class GE engines. This begins a rigorous 2-year test program of the rotor blades, transmission, engines, and all subsystems using the GTV. Sources: Sikorsky, “Sikorsky Begins Powered Ground Tests of CH-53K Helicopter with Rotor Blades”.

March 31/14: GAO Report. The US GAO tables its “Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs“. Which is actually a review for 2013, plus time to compile and publish. With respect to the CH-53K, their top concern is that the USMC is scheduled to begin ordering helicopters before testing is done. Beyond that concurrency worry:

Nearly 9 years later the program’s two critical technologies – the main rotor blade and main gearbox – are approaching maturity. The program expects these technologies to be demonstrated in a realistic environment by its planned February 2016 production decision, a delay in 6 months over last year’s schedule. Program officials reported that they conducted a three-blade whirl test that produced results that exceeded required outcomes. Flight testing is expected to begin in late 2014.

March 4-11/14: FY15 Budget. The US military slowly files its budget documents, detailing planned spending from FY 2014 – 2019. The current Navy plan will begin buying production CH-53Ks with an order for 2 in FY 2017, followed by 4 in FY 2018 and 7 in FY 2019. That means production has been pushed back by about a year, because:

“Late delivery of components into qualification, and subsequent qualification challenges, have delayed Ground Test Vehicle (GTV) delivery, Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR – GTV & 1st Flight), Engineering Development Models (EDM) delivery and CH-53K 1st Flight, and have moved Milestone C (MSC) and other associated events to 3Q 2016. Budgetary constraints delayed start of the Aircraft Procurement (APN) program by one year. As such, Advanced Acquisition Contracts (AAC) and LRIP awards have been adjusted accordingly. In order to procure aircraft that effectively demonstrate manufacturing processes are both mature and under control, two (2) additional RDT&E,N-funded System Demonstration Test Articles (SDTAs) in FY15 with delivery in 4Q 2018 and 1Q 2019 were added to the program.”

Sources: USN, PB15 Press Briefing [PDF] and detailed budget documents.

Oct 31/13: Rotors. Sikorsky has completed initial tests of the CH-53Ks new rotor blades, including fatigue tests and whirl-tower balance tests. Additional blade qualification testing will continue for several years, in order to validate aspects like aerodynamic stability, tip deflection, and rotational twist. The next steps involve installation and testing on the stationary CH-53K GTV.

There’s a lot to test, because the rotors are new technology. The 35 foot span, 7-bladed main rotor has blade of almost 3 foot chord width, with new airfoil designs, twist, and taper to handle the engines’ 71% power increase. The new blade tips are designed to improve hover performance, and a composite cuff attachment allows attachment of each blade to the elastomerically-articulated titanium rotor head, without tools or redundant fasteners. The rotor hub itself is almost 9 feet in diameter, and the blade radius will be 39.5 feet when assembled, with 12% more total surface area than the CH-35E.

The 4-blade tail rotors are also new, with 10 foot blades and 15% more surface area compared to the CH-53E. Sikorsky says that the CH-53K tail rotor produce as much thrust as the main rotor blades on Sikorsky’s 5.5 ton S-76 medium helicopter, which is used in the offshore oil industry. Source: Sikorsky via PR Newswire, “Sikorsky Completes Initial Tests of First Rotor Blades for CH-53K Helicopter”.

Oct 11/13: EVM penalty. Bloomberg News:

“Sikorsky was notified Sept. 6 of three deficiencies on a contract for the Navy’s CH-53K heavy-lift helicopter related to guidelines for the recording of direct costs and material accounting, Navy Commander William Urban, a Pentagon spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement. A corrective action plan is expected from the company by Oct. 21, he said.”

While Bloomberg doesn’t say so, the issue in question relates to a quantitative approach to project tracking called Earned Value Management. Until they’re satisfied, the Pentagon is withholding the maximum 5% on payments. Sikorsky responds that 2 of the 3 issues are already resolved, and they don’t expect this to affect the program. Sources: For Dummies.com, “Earned Value Management Terms and Formulas for Project Managers” | Bloomberg, “Pentagon Withholds Sikorsky Payments for Business System Flaws”.

Oct 1/13: Sub-contractors. Kratos Defense & Security announces that an $8.5 million contract from Sikorsky to design and develop CH-53K maintenance trainers. The full-fidelity Maintenance Training Device Suite (MTDS) is meant to provide a true-to-life environment for maintenance training; as well as remove-and-replace training for avionics systems, electrical systems, hydraulic systems and many other mechanical subsystems.

The Helicopter Emulation Maintenance Trainer (HEMT) uses a 3D virtual environment to support maintenance training scenarios: functional tests, fault isolation, troubleshooting, and remove and installation for 27 subsystems. Sources: Kratos Oct 1/13 release.

FY 2013

SAR shows program cost increases; Ground Test Vehicle delivered; Flight test helicopters ordered. CH-53K GTV
(click to view full)

Sept 27/13: Sensors etc. Raytheon in El Segundo, CA receives a $20 million firm-fixed-price delivery order for:

CH-53K, using FY 2013 USN RDT&E budget…

• 5 AAQ-29 day/night surveillance turrets
  
• 2 Memory Loader Verifier System cables
  
• Software update, system integration, and test support

USAF HH-60 search & rescue helicopters, using FY 2011 procurement budget…

• 25 AAQ-29 day/night surveillance turrets
  
• 25 L2G multifunction control units and 35 L2G system control units
  
• 1 technical data package
  
• 1 repair of repairables analysis

All funds are committed immediately, and $16.2 million expires on Sept 30/13. Work will be performed in McKinney, TX (92%) and El Segundo, CA, (8%), and is expected to be complete in September 2015. US Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD manages the contract (N00019-10-G-0018).

Sept 23/13: IG OK. The Pentagon’s Inspector General submits a non-public report concerning the CH-53K program. Their public statement: the program has been managed appropriately, but it may not meet its February 2016 Milestone C decision date, or its revised costs.

The Acquisition Program Baseline was updated on April 24/13, to address cost growth and schedule delays. Contractor manufacturing delays and component testing failures, hence the risk of not being ready in time for the low-rate production decision, and not meeting even its revised costs. The Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics is aware of these issues. Sources: OIG, “CH-53K Program Management Is Satisfactory, but Risks Remain (Project No. D2013-D000CD-0095.000)”.

July 17/13: Engines. General Electric Co. in Lynn, MA receives a $15.7 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract to buy “time critical parts” for incorporation into the CH-53K’s T408-GE-400 gas turbine engine. All funds are committed immediately by the US Navy.

Work will be performed in Lynn, MA, and is expected to be complete in December 2016. This contract was not competitively procured pursuant to FAR 6.302-2-1(a)(1) by US Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD (N00019-13-C-0132).

June 27/13: Sub-contractors. Boeing spinoff Spirit Aerosystems announces a $60 million sub-contract, as a result of the #435 million order for 4 System Demonstration Test Article helicopters (q.v. May 30/13). Spirit makes the base cockpit and cabin, essentially the body of the helicopter.

Spirit will begin work during 2013 at its Wichita, KS facility, with deliveries to Sikorsky’s CH-53K prototype assembly line in West Palm Beach, FL to begin in 2014. When the helicopters are finished, they’ll enter Operational Evaluation in 2017, to verify that their performance meets projections. The contract follows over $150 million in work on 7 structures, for the first 5 prototype test helicopters and the 2 ground test frames.

Spirit recently announced work with Spintech Ventures, of Xenia, OH on a set of trademarked products called Inflexion/ Smart Tooling. The technology uses re-formable, reusable mandrels that can change states through the layup and cure phases. That helps form complex, highly integrated composite structures into large and/or unusual shapes and configurations – like full integration of skins, stringers, and frames or ribs in one step. Spirit | Wichita Eagle | Spirit re: Inflexion.

May 31/13: Hostile IG Report. The Pentagon’s Inspector General issues a report under Audit Project No. D2012-D000CD-0037.000, telling the USMC that the CH-53K’s program increase to 200 helicopters isn’t justified. The Marines politely tell the IG to stick it where Chesty can’t find it.

The Inspector General’s statement that “the Marine Corps risks spending $22.2 billion in procurement and operating and support funding for 44 additional aircraft” is a blatant error – that’s the entire 2011 program cost for 200, plus R&D. Beyond that, they complain that the USMC:

• did not follow the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System Instruction and obtain Joint Requirements Oversight Council [DID: JROC] approval for the increase;
  
• did not have requirement studies prepared to determine a procurement quantity in consideration of program affordability;
  
• incorrectly relied on a 2008 memorandum from the Deputy Commandant for Aviation directing the increase of the procurement quantity to 200 aircraft, without support;
  
• incorrectly used the 2010-2011 Force Structure Review’s war-gaming scenarios as justification for the quantity increase; and
  
• did not justify or appropriately consider the impact of the Marine Corps personnel reductions effect on Heavy Lift quantity requirements.

In response, the USMC Deputy Commandant says the existing analyses do justify it, and JROC approved the 200. Then the Milestone Decision Authority approves the Marine Corps’ request to rebaseline the program with a 54% procurement cost increase over the 2005 baseline (a jump from Dec 2011 figures, if true) and formally push the Milestone C decision from December 2012 to February 2016 (later than the current August 2015). The IG wants additional comments re: the re-baselining. Which is fine, as far as it goes, but the whole process seems like an ad for the Lexington Institute’s Daniel Goure, who argues that the Pentagon’s procurement processes are an out of control overhead burden. It’s all about paper, rather than the soundness of the conclusion. And you can’t use what you learn in war games to change procurement decisions? What idiot thinks that’s a good idea? Pentagon IG Report.

May 30/13: Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in Stratford, CT receives a $435.3 million cost-plus-incentive-fee contract modification, to buy 4 CH-53K System Demonstration Test Article helicopters. The April 5/06 System Development & Demonstration contract already included 4 test helicopters, and US NAVAIR and Sikorsky subsequently confirm that these 4 SDTA helicopters are a different set that the Marines will test during operational evaluation. The buy is structured as an additional line item under the 2006 contract, and initial funding will use $48.1 million in FY 2013 RDT&E budgets.

Sikorsky CH-53K Program VP Dr. Michael Torok says the SDTA helos will be based on the configuration of the 4th and final flight test aircraft from the 2006 contract, which is currently being assembled on the prototype production line. To date, Sikorsky has delivered 2 non-flying SDD CH-53Ks: the Ground Test Vehicle and the Static Test Article. That leaves the 4 flight test prototypes, 1 stationary Fatigue Test CH-53K, and now the 4 SDTA helicopters. First flight of a CH-53K prototype is now expected in “late 2014” instead of Spring 2014, and this contract requires 1st SDTA delivery by September 2016. Final delivery is scheduled by the time OpEval begins in March 2017, with incentives for early delivery.

Work will be performed in Stratford, CT (17%); West Palm Beach, FL (17%); Wichita, KS (15%); Salt Lake City, UT (10%); St. Louis, MO (4%); Bridgeport, WVA (3%); Windsor Locks, CT (3%); Ft. Walton Beach, FL (2%); Redmond, WA (2%); Forest, OH (2%); Jackson, MS (2%); Cudahy, WI (2%); Irvine, CA (2%); Kent, WA (1.2%); Bristol, United Kingdom (1%); Phoenix, AZ (1%); Chesterfield, MO (1%); Los Angeles, CA (1%); Rochester, United Kingdom (1%); Buckinhamshire, United Kingdom (1%); Longueil, Quebec, Canada (1%); Cedar Rapids, IA (0.8%); Twinsburg, OH (0.8%); St. Clair, PA (0.5%), and various other locations (8.7%) (N00019-06-C-0081). See also US NAVAIR | Sikorsky

4 flight test helos

May 24/12: SAR. The Pentagon finally releases its Dec 31/12 Selected Acquisitions Report [PDF].

“CH-53K Heavy Lift Replacement Helicopter – Program costs increased $1,897.6 million (+7.1%) from $26,626.8 million to $28,524.4 million, due primarily to changing the cost estimating methodology from analogy-based to supplier bottom-up (+$1,796.6 million), use of commercial indices for materiel escalation costs (+$948.9 million), revised escalation indices (+$539.4 million), an increase in the production line shutdown estimate (+$120.7 million), and an increase in support equipment, repair of repairables, and spares costs (+$64.9 million). These increases were partially offset by decreases in other support costs (-$664.0 million), initial spares requirements (-$589.0 million), and the application of new inflation indices (-$385.3 million).”

To put the estimating into English, the program had estimated costs based on similar programs, but now they’ve gone through the chosen suppliers and built an estimate using actual costs for components and materials, plus commercial figures for raw materials etc. The result adds almost $2.85 billion to the program, and other cost jumps bring the total increase to $3.47 billion. The downward revisions to spares and support, and to inflation, prevent costs from rising over 13%.

Are the changes reasonable? We won’t know until flight testing is well underway and time has revealed real inflation costs, but there’s reason to be skeptical. It could be a case of “paper cuts now, then cost increases once production is underway and jobs in Congressional districts are committed.” We’ll have to talk to the program to even begin to judge.

SAR: program cost increases – questionable cuts?

May 17/13: General Electric in Lynn, MA receives a $7.6 million firm-fixed-price delivery order to buy critical hard tooling required to support the manufacture of the CH-53K’s GE38-1B engines. The current order involves GE38s for the CH-53K System Demonstration Test Article (SDTA) helicopters, and they’re the engine’s inaugural platform.

Work will be performed in Lynn, MA (20%); Morristown, TN (20%); Groton, CT (20%); Hooksett, NH (10%); Fort Wayne, IN (10%); North Clarendon, VT (10%); and Albany, OR (10%); and is expected to be complete in November 2014. All funds are committed immediately, using FY 2013 RDT&E budgets (N00019-10-G-0007).

March 28/13: GAO Report. The US GAO tables its “Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs“. Which is actually a review for 2012, plus time to compile and publish. Overall, expected costs have risen (q.v. March 30/12 entry), though the added cost per helicopter is only 5.6% above the baseline. The “ground test vehicle” non-flying model has been delivered, but issues with a test stand are delaying progress.

GAO points out that the design is released, but not necessarily finished. The big break in the program remains the April 2011 shift from a cost-plus award fee to cost-plus incentive fee contract, tied to specific cost and schedule goals, and associated with a much-delayed schedule. The next big event will be the beginning of system-level prototype testing in 2013.

Dec 4/12: Testing. Sikorsky delivers the 1st CH-53K Ground Test Vehicle (GTV) prototype. It won’t fly, just help test the performance of the rotor blades, transmission, and engines. The 4 follow-on flight test helicopters aren’t expected to fly until 2014-2015. Sikorsky.

GTV delivered

FY 2012

GAO report says development will need more $; Last CH-53D retired. CH-53E lifts M113 APC

May 6/12: Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in Stratford, CT receives a $7.8 million cost-plus-award-fee contract modification to incorporate CH-53K live fire test and evaluation. This is exactly what it sounds like – the Navy will shoot lots of holes in test platforms, and assess damage resistance.

Work will be performed at Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division, China Lake, CA (80%), and Stratford, CT (20%). Work is expected to be complete in December 2018 (N00019-06-C-0081).

April 12/12: Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in Stratford, CT receives a $25.7 million cost-plus-incentive-fee contract modification, to provide detailed maintenance plans in support of the CH-53K helicopter program. Work will be performed in Stratford, CT, and is expected to be complete in December 2015 (N00019-06-C-0081).

March 30/12: GAO report. The US GAO tables its “Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs” for 2012. With respect to the CH-53K:

“Program officials reported that in July 2011, the contract’s estimated cost was increased by $724 million to $3.4 billion. According to Defense Contract Management Agency officials, the estimated contract costs increased because of several factors including the need for additional flight test hours and spare parts, increased material costs, and design complexity. The contract was also changed from cost-plus award fee to cost-plus incentive fee for the remaining period of performance. The incentive fees are tied to specific cost and schedule goals… According to Marine Corps officials, a force structure review has been conducted to assess the required quantity of aircraft and that review determined that the requirement for 200 aircraft is still valid despite the proposed manpower reduction.”

Feb 28/12: Avionics. Northrop Grumman announces a $5.6 million Phase II contract from US NAVAIR to modify existing software for the CH-53K’s LN-251 embedded GPS/fiber-optic inertial navigation system (INS). Northrop Grumman’s Navigation Systems Division will provide updated software and engineering support for platform integration and flight tests, to both NAVAIR and Sikorsky Aircraft.

Feb 24/12: Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in Stratford, CT receives a $15.5 million cost-plus-incentive-fee CH-53K contract modification. The program needs a condition-based maintenance plus software toolset (almost certainly ISS – vid. Oct 26/11), to integrate the helicopter’s onboard prognostics and the Navy’s fleet common operating environment maintenance computers. The contract includes installation, operation, and recurring data analysis.

Funds and work will be assigned if and as needed, and work will be performed in Lexington Park, MD (90%), and Stratford, CT (10%). The contract is expected to run until February 2018. US Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD manages the contract (N00019-06-C-0081).

Feb 10/12: USMC retires CH-53D. The USMC holds a “sundown ceremony” to retire its CH-53D Sea Stallion fleet, leaving only CH-53E Super Stallions. See also Aug 16/10 entry. US NAVAIR explains that the retirement isn’t immediate, but it is imminent:

“The Sea Stallion’s last mission is currently underway with Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron 363 supporting Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. The helicopter will be flown from Marine Corps Air Station Kaneohe Bay to its final destination at the Pacific Aviation Museum, where it will be displayed.”

CH-53D retired

Dec 19/11: Sub-contractors. Northrop Grumman announces a follow-on contract from US NAVAIR in Patuxent River, MD to define system requirements for the integration of its LN-251 embedded global positioning system (GPS)/fiber-optic inertial navigation system (INS) on the new CH-53K.

The firm touts the LN-251 system as “the world’s smallest, lightest navigation-grade embedded GPS/INS unit in its class… [whose] modular, open architecture supports additional applications and evolving requirements.”

Oct 26/11: Recognition. The CH-53K Helicopter Systems Engineering Team wins a Department of Defense Systems Engineering Top 5 Programs Award, at the annual NDIA Systems Engineering Conference Award Luncheon in San Diego, CA. US NAVAIR.

Oct 26/11: ISS Patent. Sikorsky Aerospace Services’ Integrated Support System (ISS) aftermarket software suite has received a patent. ISS integrates onboard diagnostics (vid. Sept 26/08 HUMS entry) and usage data with ground-based troubleshooting and service information. This technology is part of Sikorsky’s efforts to move toward proactive diagnostics, and ISS platforms for the Sikorsky CH-53K and S70i are under development. Future plans include expansion to other aircraft types. Sikorsky.

Oct 11/11: Sub-contractors. Thermoplastic composites firm Fiberforge announces the addition of Njord A. Rota as its CH-53K Program Manager. They explain that the Lockheed Martin veteran will lead all management aspects of Fiberforge’s work for DRS Technologies Inc. Their work includes the design, development and production of the carbon fiber composite components within the CH-53K’s Internal Cargo Handling System. Helihub.

FY 2011

GE delivers 1st engine, sees GE38 civil and military market potential as $4+ billion; Sikorsky unveils virtual reality center, FAFO experimental assembly line.

August 2011: Re-baselined. The CH-53K program undergoes a major time shift. Delivery dates for engineering development models are moved, 1st flight is pushed back to 2014, and Initial Operational Capability is moved from 2015 to 2018 (later 2019). Source: GAO.

Contract rebaselined

GE38 engine
(click to view full)

Aug 4/11: Engine. GE has delivered the 1st GE38 engine, for use on the Sikorsky CH-53K Ground Test Vehicle. After 2 years of testing, GE touts 57% more power and 18% lower specific fuel consumption than the CH-53E’s similarly-sized GE T64, while using 63% fewer parts.

In addition to the CH-53K SDD program’s 20 flight engines, the GE38 testing program includes 5 factory-test engines that will accumulate more than 5,000 engine test hours by 2013. GE is pushing ahead on its engine despite CH-53K delays, and expects it to have applications in the fixed wing and naval markets, alongside its helicopter potential. They see a total civil and military market potential of $4+ billion. GE.

June 21/11: Industrial. Sikorsky announces that they’ve begun assembly of the CH-53K Ground Test Vehicle (GTV), which is currently in position 4 on the line. It’s the 1st of 5 prototype CH-53Ks to be assembled at the Sikorsky Florida Assembly and Flight Operations (FAFO) facility in West Palm Beach, FL, which opened in March 2011.

Another 2 GTVs will be assembled at Sikorsky’s main manufacturing plant in Stratford, CT, making 3 ground test and 4 flight test helicopters. CH-53K ground testing is scheduled to begin in early 2012, and flight testing during FY 2014. To give one a sense of the CH-53K, its rotor hub and transmission alone weigh 15,000 pounds – about the empty weight of a UH-60 Black Hawk.

April 2011: Restructuring. The CH-53K program undergoes a major shift. The SDD contract is changed from a cost-plus award fee structure to cost-plus incentive fee contract, which is tied to specific cost and schedule goals. Source: GAO.

Contract restructured

March 22/11: Industrial. Sikorsky officially opens its new 60,000 square foot Florida Assembly and Flight Operations (FAFO) campus, establishing experimental assembly line operations for the new CH-53K heavy lift helicopter. The FAFO line introduces a set of new manufacturing technologies. It’s equipped with wireless data connections to all operator plasma data screens, uses digital operation sheets, and is outfitted with overhead power and air dropdowns, new aircraft work stands, and overhead cranes. Sikorsky, incl. video.

Feb 16/11: Sub-contractors. Donaldson provides an update regarding its Engine Air Particle Protection System, which is a critical piece of equipment in desert or dusty environments. They received the contract in September 2007:

“We built the first full-scale EAPPS in just three months following the CDR, [DID: which was August 2010]” said Sheila Peyraud, General Manager, Aerospace and Defense at Donaldson. “Developmental testing began in November 2010 to support testing of the helicopter’s GE38-1B engine in 2011. We are pleased that initial results in this phase of the program are exceeding expectations originally set during the conceptual design phase. Qualification testing will begin in May 2011.”

Jan 14/11: Industrial. Sikorsky unveils a state-of-the-art virtual reality center for the CH-53K heavy lift helicopter program, attempting to help identify production and maintenance issues before the initial build takes place by using a 3-dimensional digital environment.

Located within the engineering labs at Sikorsky’s main manufacturing facility in Stratford, CT, the virtual reality center uses sophisticated software, along with 12 cameras, a head-mounted display headset, gloves, and a gripping tool. All devices are linked to 3 computers, which comprise the “command center” for operating the system.

Nov 19/10: Sub-contractors. ITT Corporation (formerly EDO) announces that after nearly 3 years of advanced design, development, testing and manufacturing, they’ve delivered the first pair of CH-53K sponsons to Sikorsky. Each sponson is 25 feet long by 4 feet wide and 5 feet high, and fits on the helicopter’s side to house landing gear, fuel, and other mechanical and electrical assemblies.

ITT used composite materials instead of traditional sheet metal for the sponsons, and hopes they’ll provide benefits in weight, corrosion resistance, and in-flight stress tolerance. To make that work, ITT has to use advanced manufacturing technologies like electronic model control, laser-ply projection, 5-axis computer numerically controlled machining, automated trimming and drilling, and laser and ultrasonic inspection of all subassemblies. The CH-53K parts will be built at ITT’s Electronic Systems facility in Salt Lake City, UT.

FY 2010

Why was the CH-53K program pushed back 2 years?; SAR raises plans to 200; Critical Design Review passed; AAQ-29 surveillance turrets for CH-53K; No more “boneyard” CH-53D/Es left. CH-53Ds in Hawaii
(click for video)

Sept 6/10: Sub-contractors. GKN Aerospace delivers the first major CH-53K structural assembly to Sikorsky – an aft transition fuselage section that measures approximately 20′ x 9′ x 9′, built of an advanced hybrid composite, aluminum and titanium structure covered with external composite skins.

GKN Aerospace was accorded full design authority and manufacturing responsibility for the CH-53K helicopter aft transition fuselage section, cargo ramp, and overhead door structural assemblies in 2007. Structural design is carried out by the GKN Aerospace Engineering Development Center in Nashville, TN, and manufacturing of over 1,000 separate components takes place at the Company’s plant in St. Louis, MO. GKN Aerospace is employing manufacturing technologies including automated fibre placement (AFP), automated trim and drill, and digital inspection. GKN Aerospace.

Aug 16/10: CH-35D plans. DoD Buzz looks at the shifting plans to replace the USMC’s 30 CH-53D Sea Stallions. The original plan was to replace them with MV-22s. At some point in 2007/08, the Marine Corps formally decided replace their aging CH-53Ds with CH-53Ks. But now USMC Lt. General Trautman is saying that he wants an east coast and a west coast MV-22 squadron to replace the CH-53Ds in Afghanistan, and “When I can do that, that’ll be the start of getting CH-53 Delta out of the way.”

Exactly what “out of the way” means is ambiguous. If it means out of service, DoD Buzz correctly notes that this raises questions about the USMC’s support for the CH-53K, and would seem to be better news for the MV-22. If it means “shifted back to Hawaii while MV-22s serve in Afghanistan,” that would be something else. The exact meaning isn’t 100% clear in the article.

Aug 3/10: CDR. Sikorsky announces a successful Critical Design Review for its CH-53K, following a week-long meeting in late July that included representatives from the military, Sikorsky, and 21 industrial partners. At the review, the CH-53K team had to demonstrate that their design meets NAVAIR’s system requirements. System-level performance projections indicate that all 7 Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) will be achieved with adequate risk mitigation margin built-in. Over 93% of the design has been released for manufacturing, and the final design definition concludes, the next step involves initial prototypes and testing.

The overall program CDR follows previous efforts including a System Requirements Review (SRR), System Functional Review (SFR), System Preliminary Design Review (PDR), 77 supplier-level CDRs, 64 supplier and internal software reviews, and 16 sub-system CDRs. Sikorsky VP and CH-53K Chief Engineer Mike Torok offers an update of other preparations:

“Parts are being made throughout the supply base and at our new Precision Component Technology Center; test facilities are being fabricated and prepped for installation in our recently opened ground test facility; the integrated simulation facility is marching toward a late 2010 opening, already having received the first increment of software for the aircraft; and the final assembly facility in West Palm Beach is being prepared to start building the ground and flight vehicles early next year. It’s time now to prove out our design and show that this helicopter system will indeed meet the war fighting requirements of the USMC…”

CDR

June 28/10: Sub-contractors. Raytheon Co. in El Segundo, CA received a $26.5 million firm-fixed-price delivery order for 50 forward looking infrared devices that will be fitted to CH-53E (42) and CH-53K (8) helicopters. Discussions with corporate representatives confirm that these will be AN/AAQ-29 turrets, using a 480 x 640 element, 3-5 micron wavelength indium antimonite infrared detector, and a 2 field of view telescope on a 12-inch diameter turret.

This is a follow-on to a previous order. Work under this basic ordering agreement will be performed in El Segundo, CA, and is expected to be complete in June 2012. $530,000 will expire at the end of the current fiscal year, on Sept 30/10 (N00019-10-G-0018).

June 4/10: No more CH-53D/Es. US NAVAIR announces that it has delivered the last available CH-53s from storage at AMARG in Tucson, AZ. The last H-53E to come out of desert retirement was delivered to Marine Helicopter Training Squadron 302 on May 7/10, while the last CH-53D was delivered April 16/10.

Since the start of the program in August 2005, FRC East H-53 artisans have inducted and completed 10 of the heavy-lift helicopters. The team delivered 8 CH-53Es and 2 CH-53Ds, some of which had been idle for as many as 11 years, ahead of schedule and under budget. Each helicopter still took about 25,000 total work hours for all testing, modifications, and maintenance. Sikorsky ended CH-53 production in 1999, so AMARG was the last remaining source of airframes.

Boneyard out of CH-53s

May 10/10: Engine. Flight International reports that even though the CH-53E is delayed, GE remains committed to delivering the 7,500 shp class GE38-1 engine on schedule. The firm sees re-engining opportunities and related sales beyond the CH-53K, so they’ve begun delivering GE38s for ground tests years before airframes become available for flight test.

As of Feb 15/10, GE had recorded 176 engine starts and 177 operating hours, with sustained power of 7,760 shp and peak power of 8,300 shp. April 2010 saw delivery of a 2nd engine for ground tests.

The article is less positive about the CH-53K’s odds of winning the German/French heavy-lift helicopter program. Apparently, Germany wants a helicopter that will fit key vehicles internally, not underslung. Ultimately, the question will be whether Germany can afford to develop what it wants, can find it elsewhere, or is forced to remove some requirements.

April 29/10: Why the delay? DefenseTech reports that the USMC has pushed back the initial flight date of the CH-53K by 2 years to FY 2013, and Initial Operational Capability by 3 years to FY 2018, “with little concrete justification beyond an ‘overly aggressive initial program schedule’ “, and while stressing that the program has not run into technical problems. Craig Hooper writes:

“The CH-53K was an unsung showpiece for those preaching the virtues of incremental development, and, as a result, appetite for the platform has grown by about 30 percent, with the program of record expected to increase from 156 aircraft to 200. But, in the process, the CH-53K has become something of a MV-22-killer. Is this the problem?… In late 2009, the Marine Corps decided to go with the CH-53Ks to replace their 40-year old CH-53D fleet (MV-22 Ospreys were originally slated to replace the CH-53D). At about the same time, Israel decided to forego the Osprey for the CH-53K, killing the Osprey’s best hope of snaring an international buyer. And with the Osprey 65% availability and the MV-22s high operating costs of about $11,000 dollars an hour… worse, studies from the Pentagon demonstrated that a CH-53K-equipped big-deck amphib provided a lot more logistical support for embarked Marines than the MV-22… Slowing CH-53K development will… prevent real-data comparisons between platforms… [until] a second multi-year MV-22 contract gets signed in FY 2013. Even worse, slowing the CH-53K schedule raised the program price by at least $1.1 billion dollars, raising the per-unit price… Why slow a program that stands to be a high-demand showpiece with potential markets in Israel, Germany, France, Turkey, Singapore and Taiwan?”

Asked for a response, US MARCORSYSCOM said that US NAVAIR was the only agency that could respond; NAVAIR did not respond to DID’s simultaneous inquiry.

April 1/10: SAR – Program grows. The Pentagon releases its April 2010 Selected Acquisitions Report, covering major program changes up to December 2009. The CH-53K is included, because the Marines want more of them – but there’s a self-imposed catch:

“CH-53K – Program costs increased $6,817.8 million (+36.4%) from $18,708.3 million to $25,526.1 million, due primarily to a quantity increase of 44 aircraft from 156 to 200 aircraft (+$3,108.9 million), and increases in other support costs (+$749.7 million) and initial spares (+$456.2 million) associated with the quantity increase. Costs also increased due to a three-year delay in the procurement profile shifting initial purchases from fiscal 2013 to fiscal 2016 (+$1,148.4 million), schedule growth attributable to funding constraints (+$669.6 million), and an increase in the cost estimate for the development contract (+$611.2 million).”

Feb 22/10: Sub-contractors. Cobham announces [PDF] a sub-contract from Sikorsky to manufacture all leading and trailing edge details and precisely locate and bond the details onto the CH-53K’s main rotor blade spar.

The work will be done by its Antenna Systems unit, which has consolidated all composites-related operations within the company. Depending on how many CH-53K helicopters are eventually built by Sikorsky for the US Marine Corps, the contract could be worth up to $25 million.

Jan 22/10: Industrial. Sikorsky formally opens its new $20 million Precision Components Technology Center, as part of United Technologies Corp.’s $130 million investment the CH-53K program.

The center currently employs 8 people, and was designed to allow the development of new product lines with “zero setup time” and quick changeover from one component to another. The center will produce major dynamic components of the CH-53K helicopter such as rotating and stationary swashplates, main and tail rotor hubs, and main rotor sleeves. The equipment in the center has the capability to produce any precision rotor and drive system dynamic component, including earlier-model configurations, and forgings machined there can be up to double the size of previous on-site limits. Sikorsky release.

Jan 7/10: IDR. Sikorsky announces the wrap-up of its Integration Design Review for the CH-53K, in preparation for the Critical Design Review coming in 2010. The event included industrial team members , and personnel from US NAVAIR and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Risk reduction initiatives on the critical split torque main gear box and the advanced main rotor blade are done, and 2010 will also hold a Technology Readiness Assessment. Initial Operational Capability is currently slated for early 2016.

Established features of the CH-53K helicopter currently include a joint-interoperable glass (digital screens) cockpit; fly-by-wire flight controls; 4th generation rotor blades with anhedral tips; a low-maintenance elastomeric rotor head; upgraded engines; a locking cargo rail system; external cargo handling improvements; survivability enhancements; and design for reduced operation and support costs. Sikorsky release.

FY 2009

CH-53s flying at 3x planned usage; 1st GE38 engine test; VELD removed from the design; Sub-contractors picked. CH-53E, Cobra Gold 2002
(click to view full)

July 28/09: Engine. The GE38 team holds a ceremony at General Electric in Lynn, MA, celebrating the completion of the first full GE38 engine test. This first engine test, which began June 24/09, focused on basic engine checkout and risk reduction. All engine test parameters were within predicted values.

SDD phase testing will include 5 ground-test engines that will accumulate more than 5,000 engine test hours, plus production of 20 flight-test engines for the CH-53K development helicopters (each helicopter carries 3 engines). NAVAIR release.

May 7/09: Sub-contractors. Curtiss-Wright Corporation announces a contract from Sikorsky to develop and supply data concentrator units for the CH-53K. Curtiss-Wright’s system consists of 2 data concentrator units (DCUs) that will receive and provide various avionic and air vehicle discrete, digital and analog inputs for monitoring, processing data and controlling various CH-53K subsystem components.

Curtiss-Wright’s Motion Control segment will develop and manufacture the DCU systems at its newly-opened City of Industry, CA, facility. The initial contract runs through 2011 with the production phase starting in 2013. The contract has a total potential value of $22 million when development and all aircraft production options and phases are completed.

April 21/09: Sub-contractors. Curtiss-Wright Controls Inc., announces a contract from United Technologies subsidiary Claverham Ltd. (a Hamilton Sundstrand Flight Systems business unit) to provide multi-channel linear variable displacement transducers (LVDTs) for the fly-by-wire (FBW) systems controlling the main rotor and tail rotor on the Sikorsky UH-60M Upgrade and CH-53K helicopters.

The LVDTs are special pressure sealed linear displacement transducers that are embedded in Claverham’s Primary Flight Control Actuators. The transducers provide electrical signals that are proportional to the position of the hydraulic actuator rod, and the actuators change pitch angles on the main and tail rotors in response to the pilot’s commands.

These two programs have a potential contract value in excess of $20 million over a 15-year period, with shipments expected to begin in 2009. The company will supply these products from its Christchurch, UK operation.

March 30/09: GAO. The US GAO audit office delivers its 7th annual “Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs report, which looks at 47 programs including the CH-53K HLR. The CH-53K stands out, as one of the few programs to show lower R&D projections (from $4.23 billion to $4.17 billion) and estimated delivery time (2 months early) since its 2005 baseline. The truth is, the Marines have little choice. The time crunch has already begun:

“According to program officials, all available decommissioned CH-53E helicopters have been reclaimed… Currently deployed CH-53E aircraft are flying at three times the planned utilization rate… The program intends to manufacture up to 29 of the 156 total [CH-53K] helicopters (19 percent) during low-rate initial production at the same time that it is conducting initial operational testing. While concurrent testing and production may help to field the systems sooner, it could also result in greater retrofit cost…”

That’s likely, since a number of requirements and systems have been shelved, in order to deliver the helicopter on time:

“Both of the CH-53K’s current critical technologies, the main rotor blade and the main gearbox, are immature and are expected to be fully mature following the low-rate initial production decision in 2013. The program replaced a third technology, the viscoelastic lag damper, with a modified version of an existing [linear hydraulic damper] technology. During preparations for the preliminary design review, it was discovered that maturing system engineering tasks would potentially require additional cost and time. As a result, the program eliminated noncritical requirements to contain costs and delayed the preliminary and critical design reviews and low-rate initial production decision.”

Feb 8/09: Sub-contractors. BAE Systems announces contracts from Sikorsky Aircraft for development and initial deliveries of CH-53K Cockpit Seats and Cabin Armor Systems, and for integration of the CH-53K’s fly-by-wire flight controls. BAE Systems efforts will include design, development, testing, qualification, and delivery of initial systems to support the flight test and ground test aircraft. Follow-on contracts would be placed for production orders and spares.

The seats will be based on BAE Security & Survivability Systems S7000 armored, crashworthy seats, and first deliveries of both seats and cabin armor are scheduled for 2010. The total value of the programs is estimated at approximately $90 million through 2022, if 156 CH-53K aircraft are built.

FY 2008

PDR successful; Sub-contractors picked. Iraq: CH-53E lifts UH-60
(click to view full)

September 2008: PDR. The CH-53K program conducts a successful Preliminary Design Review. Source.

PDR

Sept 26/08: Sub-contractors – HUMS. Goodrich announces that it has been picked to supply its IVHMS Health Usage and Monitoring Systems (HUMS) for the CH-53K. HUMS are embedded sensors within the aircraft’s key components, like engines. They monitor these systems, and can often tell if things are beginning to wrong inside before something actually breaks.

Avoiding breakdowns, and helping to pinpoint problems faster if something does break, saves money. Further savings can be had by using HUMS in conjunction with advanced maintenance and fleet management software. Once a baseline of good data is available, it becomes possible to switch from “do it just in case” maintenance and overhaul checklists, to “condition-based maintenance” that’s performed only when necessary, based on a combination of HUMS readings and predictive software.

Goodrich has carved out a strong market position in this area, supplying HUMS systems of varying complexity for a number of US military helicopters. IVHMS will supposedly build on earlier IMDS systems implanted in the CH-53E, but will be broader in nature, monitoring “the CH-53K helicopter’s entire mechanical drive train from the engines to the rotor system, and hundreds of aircraft systems.”

Sept 2/08: Sub-contractors. Breeze-Eastern Corporation announces that Sikorsky has picked them to provide the CH-53K’s Internal Cargo Winch System. The initial contract requires the delivery of 5 units for the System Design and Development phase.

Breeze-Eastern has worked with Sikorsky in this area to supply the S-92, and to retrofit USMC CH-53Ds. Bloomberg.

May 30/08: Camber Corp. in Huntsville, AL received an $8.6 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for program management, acquisition management, and engineering and technical services in support of the CH-53D, CH-53E, MH-53E, and CH-53K.

Work will be performed in Patuxent River, MD and is expected to be complete in November 2008. This contract was not competitively procured by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, Patuxent River, MD (N000421-08-C-0044).

Feb 18/08: Sub-contractors. Northrop Grumman Corporation announces that U.S. Naval Aviation Systems Command has picked their APR-39BvX radar warning receiver (RWR) integration program for the Navy’s CH-53K helicopter fleet. The APR-39 BvX upgrade, scheduled for completion and flight testing in late 2009 or early 2010, builds on the recently completed AvX program and includes new, faster processors and “massive” memory expansion.

Under the terms of the $17 million phase Phase 2 contract, Northrop Grumman will incorporate all electronic warfare (EW) integration capabilities of the APR-39Av2 and APR-39Bv2 versions, which are variants of the same system tailored to the kind of aircraft computer and cockpit interfaces in Navy/USMC aircraft. The APR-39BvX program will create one interoperable version for the forthcoming CH-53K fleet. This phase 2 program will include electronic warfare controller and integration interfaces to multiple missile and laser warning sensors, and also tie the APR-39 into Northrop Grumman’s Directional Infrared Countermeasures (DIRCM) systems onboard each of the helicopters. The intended result is a system providing warning and protection against electro-optical, infrared, and radar guided missiles, and electronic warfare threats. NGC release.

Nov 6/07: Sub-contractors. Sikorsky has selected fellow United Technologies Corporation subsidiary Eaton Corporation to design, develop and supply the CH-53K’s integrated fuel system. This is in addition to the contract for the helicopter’s hydraulic power generation system and fluid conveyance package awarded to Eaton in July 2007.

During the development phase of the program, which runs through 2014, Eaton will provide the integrated fuel system support hardware for 5 helicopter shipsets in addition to a number of system development test sets. “Based on expected production of more than 156 helicopters for the U.S. Marine Corps, the contract value is approximately $96 million and, when combined with anticipated foreign military sales, is expected to exceed $160 million over the approximate 12-year life of the program.” Eaton release.

FY 2007

Sub-contractors picked; Sikorsky opens CH-53K development center. CH-53E Super Stallions:
2 HMMWVs, to shore
(click to view full)

Sept 25/07: Sub-contractors. Donaldson Company announces that Sikorsky has picked them to provide the CH-53K’s engine air particle protection system (EAPPS), which helps keep blown sand and other contaminants from gumming up the helicopter’s engines.

Sept 17/07: Sub-contractors. Fellow United Technologies’ subsidiary Hamilton Sundstrand announces that they’ve been selected to supply integrated secondary power systems for the CH-53K, consisting of the environmental control system, auxiliary power unit and main engine start system. The environmental control system (flight deck and avionics air conditioning, cabin ventilation and heating, engine bleed system, and supply air for the onboard inert gas generation system) and main engine start system will be built at Hamilton Sundstrand’s Windsor Locks, CT facility. The Auxiliary Power Unit will be built at the company’s San Diego, CA facility.

The contract includes design, development and production work; design and development will begin immediately with first hardware deliveries scheduled for 2009. Hamilton Sundstrand says that this agreement has a potential value of more than $400 million. The firm already holds contracts to supply the CH-53K’s fly-by-wire flight control computers, and primary main and tail rotor actuators. Hamilton Sundstrand release.

Sept 4/07: Sub-contractors. Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation has selected Goodrich Corporation to act as integrator for the CH-53K’s input and tail drive shaft system, as well as supplying the electrical power generation and distribution system (q.v. June 17/07).

July 12/07: Sub-contractors. Sikorsky Selects fellow UTC subsidiary Eaton to supply the CH-53K’s Hydraulic Power Generation System and Fluid Conveyance Package. During the development phase of the program, which runs through 2014, Eaton will provide support hardware for 10 aircraft shipsets. Based on expected production of more than 156 aircraft for the U.S. Marine Corps, as well as anticipated foreign military sales, the potential value of the contract over the life of the program is expected to exceed $200 million. Eaton release.

June 20/07: European HTL. France & Germany confirm their heavy-lift helicopter program, known as HTL in France and FHT in Germany. A full set of specifications have not been created yet, and the countries involved are still trying to decide whether to pay the price of a full R&D program to get exactly what they want, or base their helicopter on an existing design. Possible contenders include the CH-53K, Boeing’s CH-47F, and Rosvertol’s super-giant Mi-26T helicopter.

June 18/07: Sub-contractors. Canadian aerospace manufacturer Heroux-Devtek Inc.’s Landing Gear Division received a contract from Sikorsky to design, develop, fabricate, assemble, test and deliver the CH-53K’s landing gears and tail bumper during the SDD phase, which includes the production of landing gears and tail bumper assemblies for 8 systems. Total revenue for the SDD and the Production Phase, which will be awarded in a separate contract, is expected to exceed C$ 95 million (about $89 million). Rotor News.

June 17/07: Sub-contractors. Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation has selected Fortune 500 firm Goodrich Corporation to supply the electrical power generation and distribution system for the CH-53K program. Goodrich’s Pitstone Green, UK and Twinsburg, OH facilities will be involved in the development and delivery of a complete electrical power system for the aircraft, consisting of generators and controls; primary power distribution; AC/DC converters; battery; and external power controls.

Goodrich currently supplies power generation for the Sikorsky S-92/H-92 Superhawk, and has recently been selected to supply the DC power generation for the Sikorsky’s upgraded S-76D civil helicopter. Rotor News | Goodrich press kit release incl. pictures

May 9/07: Sub-contractors. Sikorsky Aircraft announces its selection of 4 subcontractors to design and fabricate the CH-53K’s major fuselage sections, “following an extensive solicitation and evaluation of multiple bids over a 12-month competition”: They include Aurora Flight Sciences in Manassas, VA; Bridgeport, WVA; and Columbus, MS; R&D in Cambridge, MA (main rotor pylon). EDO Corp. composites in Salt Lake City, UT; select resin transfer molding parts from Walpole, MA; and final assembly in North Amityville, NY (tail rotor pylon & side sponsons). GKN Aerospace in Nashville, TN & St. Louis, MO (aft transition). Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita, KS (cockpit and cabin).

Design will be conducted in a collaborative environment between supplier sites and Sikorsky’s Heavy Lift Development Center using model management systems linked to Sikorsky IT and data systems. Composite and titanium materials are being employed extensively to provide superior fatigue and corrosion durability at minimum weight, and state-of-the-art manufacturing processes such as co-curing, automated part fabrication, super high speed machining, and determinant assembly are being pressed into service to keep costs down. Sikorsky release.

Assemblies will initially be built for 7 test and certification aircraft (4 Engineering Development Models, 1 Ground Test Vehicle, 1 Static Test Article and 1 Fatigue Test Article.) The CH-53K SDD program schedule runs through the end of September 2015.

ADDENDA: GKN Aerospace’s release says that they’re contracted to deliver their 7 development ship sets to Sikorsky between 2009 – 2012, and estimates that this deal could be worth up to $70 million to them. Aurora Flight Sciences’ release clarifies that the Main Rotor Pylon (MRP) is one of 6 major fuselage sections; it is mostly made of composite materials, and houses the CH-53K’s Main Rotor Head, the No. 2 engine and other aircraft subsystems. EDO Release [PDF]

Feb 12/07: Manufacturing. Sikorsky Opens the CH-53K Development Center. The CH-53K program’s new Heavy Lift Development Center is a 106,000-square-foot office building in Stratford, CT, about 5 miles from Sikorsky’s main facility. It houses the CH-53K Program and Engineering staff, co-locating 500 team members consisting of Sikorsky, Naval Air Systems Command, Defense Contracting Management Agency personnel and subcontractors. These members work in Integrated Product Teams to design, develop, test and manufacture major systems and subsystems within the CH-53K.

Dec 22/06: Engine picked. Sikorsky Aircraft has selected General Electric Aviation to provide the new CH-53K heavy lift helicopter’s main engines. The GE38-1B engine planned for the CH-53K is a derivative of the CFE738 commercial turbofan engine used in the Falcon 200 business jet; the CFE738 was in turn derived from the T407 turboprop intended to power the US Navy’s updated P-7 Orion (that program was canceled and a competition restarted that left the 737-derived P-8A MMA as the winner). See also GE’s Feb 7/07 release.

According to this Flight International article, GE’s engine beat out Pratt & Whitney’s PW150 and a derivative of Rolls Royce’s AE1107 that powers the V-22 Osprey.

Oct 30/06: Rotor. Sikorsky Aircraft has submitted test results for its 4th Generation(TM) rotor blade, which builds on the work done for the Growth Rotor Blade(TM) (GRB) currently used on their new UH-60M and S/H-92 helicopters, using anhedral tips. The CH-53K model wind tunnel testing performed late in the summer of 2006 has reportedly shown a significant improvement in forward flight efficiency over the GRB. Earlier in the year, similar model rotor hover testing indicated large gains in hover efficiency. Read Sikorsky’s release.

FY 2004 – 2006

Program OK and $3 billion development contract; European HTL opportunity? CH-53D at work
(click to view full)

July 19/06: European HTL. Jane’s reports that EADS Eurocopter is seeking partners for a “super lift” helicopter to be fielded around 2020 with the French & German militaries, and confirms that talks have been held with Sikorsky regarding a modified CH-53K with European avionics and a larger cabin.

The Germans apparently want to replace their CH-53Gs (actually modified CH-53Ds) around 2020, and will look for upgrade programs to bridge the gap. The French currently lack heavy-lift helicopters in the CH-53 or CH-47 class, though the supergiant Russian Mi-26 was evaluated recently. Eurocopter and Sikorsky recently partnered on the successful $3 billion LUH program, but the firm has said it is keeping all its options open and is making no commitments.

UPDATE: Germany is updating their CH-53Gs, and the 2 countries are also going ahead with the heavy lift helicopter program. The CH-53K is still a competitor. Where does it stand? Read “The European Heavy Lift Helicopter Program?”

April 5/06: SDD contract. Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in Stratford, CT receives a $3.04 billion modification to a previously awarded cost-plus-award-fee contract (N00019-06-C-0081) for the System Development and Demonstration (SDD) of the CH-53K aircraft, to include 4 SDD aircraft, 1 ground test vehicle, and associated program management and test support.

Work will be performed in Stratford, CT and is expected to be complete in December 2015. See also NAVAIR release.

SDD contract

Dec 22/05: Green light. A formal decision by the Honorable Kenneth R. Krieg, US Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, gives the estimated $4.4 billion HLR program the green light to proceed to the System Definition and Development (SDD) phase.

CH-53E Super Stallion
(click to view full)

August 25/05: Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in Stratford, CT received a $43.3 million cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order against a previous basic ordering agreement to perform requirements definition and engineering studies in support of the Marine Corps’ Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR) Program. Work on the requirements definition and engineering studies will be performed in Stratford, CT and is expected to be complete in April 2006.

Jan 6/05: Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. in Stratford, CT received an $8.4 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for preliminary design work in support of HLR, as part of the initial system development and demonstration of the Marine Corps’ CH-53X Heavy Lift Replacement (HLR) program. Work on the preliminary design contract (N00019-06-C-0081) will be performed in Stratford, CT and is expected to be complete in January 2008 (N00019-03-G-0003).

Dec 23/04: A $34 million time and materials delivery order, issued against basic ordering agreement N00019-03-G-0003, to perform requirements definition and engineering studies in support of the Marine Corps’ Heavy Lift Replacement Program. Work was performed in Stratford, CT, and was expected to be complete in May 2005.

This contract number is not exclusive to the CH-53K. Other awards under this particular contract covered the Presidential Helicopter program (Sikorsky lost) and other helicopter engineering.

Appendix A: Flying Between Scylla and Charbydis: Navigating the Political Shoals JHL: QTR Concept
(click to view full)

DID’s coverage of the HLR program has also included a report about HLR’s potential merger with the US Army’s futuristic JHL program. The Joint Heavy Lifter (JHL) is imagined as an aircraft with cargo capacity that approaches a C-130 Hercules transport (about 20 tons), but with the ability to take off and land like a helicopter. No current US military helicopter platform even comes close. JHL’s competitors are deploying some radical and different technologies in their attempt to achieve these goals – from quad tilt-rotors to coaxial skycranes and even compound helicopters.

Marine Corps acquisition officials also weighed the option of participating in JHL. While Congress could always step in to force the issue – and may still do so – the Marine Corps note that this would be deeply unwise for a number of reasons:

“The Army’s proposed heavy lift requirement to transport the Future Combat System greatly exceeds our requirement,” said program manager, Col. Paul Croisetiere. “The actual aircraft hasn’t been designed yet, but initial analysis suggests the joint heavy lifter will be too large to operate from current and programmed amphibious shipping. We may have a use for it, but in more of a logistical role as a possible KC-130J [air tanker] replacement – we still need the CH-53K for tactical heavy lift.”

Joint Heavy Lifters may not be available any sooner than 2025, according to Croisetiere, which is more than 10 years after the Marine Corps will be forced to start retiring its current CH-53E fleet. Even if the Marines could use it, Croisetiere pointed out that as currently envisioned, JHL will be too big to operate from the Marines’ amphibious ships.

V-22 Osprey

This is a logical argument. However this rationale might sell better if the USMC hadn’t spent the last decade describing tilt-rotor technology as the necessary wave of the future that would make helicopters obsolete, in its quest to sell the $100 million per plane V-22 Osprey.

When budgets are also being squeezed hard by multiple cost overruns on a wide swath of programs, programs that appear to be similar to each other will become big targets for Congressional cuts and pressure to merge. The US Marines have been the leading service advocates of tilt-rotor technology as a transformational necessity. Having invested so much of their prestige and credibility in the V-22, some people on Capitol Hill seem inclined to view the Marines’ rejection of a program that includes similar Quad Tilt Rotor and OSTR (Optimum Speed Tilt-Rotor) options as inconsistent, and hence mere territoriality. If this view spreads, it will not bode well for the HLR Program’s political survival.

It certainly wouldn’t be the first time in US military procurement history that the promise of the shiny new thing has found itself in the way of fulfilling military necessities with cheaper, proven options.

MH-53J Pave Low IV
(click to view alt.)

The natural response to such pressures would be twofold. One track would emphasize the comparatively speculative nature of the JHL Program’s technologies and their uncertain development timelines. The other track would tout the value of cheaper builds of proven helicopters, in order to meet immediate needs and an uncompromising timeline for fleet airframe life. This is exactly what Col. Paul Croisetiere has done.

Making that argument, however, flies in the face of almost everything the USMC said when some in Congress pushed for immediately available conventional helicopter options to replace the Marines’ extremely aged Vietnam-era CH-46 Sea Knights. Options that would also have cost about half the price per aircraft. If the CH-46s could be patched together via life extension programs and extensive maintenance while the V-22s sorted out their difficulties and eventually reached production many years late, why not the CH-53Es? Especially if pursuing a similar tilt-rotor technology like the JHL’s QTR would reduce the V-22’s per-aircraft costs while increasing overall interoperability, and therefore easing long-term maintenance and logistics costs as well?

These arguments may or may not be considered valid. Nevertheless, they should absolutely be expected as the Global War on Terror, unexpected future contingencies, and a looming demographic shift put increasing pressure on US defense budgets. The US Marine Corps has certainly prepared the ground well.

The HLR program may have an eventful political journey ahead of it.

Appendix B: Interesting Ideas: The CH-53X Skycrane Concept CH-53X Skycrane Concept
(click for details)

As a point of interest, this is one of the more innovative suggestions we’ve seen re: the next-generation CH-53X. It proposes turning the CH-53 into a “Skycrane” variant, and using it in conjunction with the trend toward “battle box” containerized forces, plus underslung light armor & vehicles.

The idea is that this would improve both the CH-53E’s capabilities (via reducing aircraft weight but not power) and the USA’s transformational deployability (via faster and more versatile load and ship that would also improve tactical surprise).

Additional Readings & Sources

• Sikorsky – CH-53K.

• GlobalSecurity.org – Heavy Lift Replacement [CH-53X].

• SLD (Oct 16/10) – Adding a Core USMC Capability: The CH-53K As A Logistical Force Multiplier. An Interview with Major Jeff “Kingpin” Davis.

• Sikorsky Frontlines, via WayBack (Q3 2009) – CH-53K Update [PDF].

• American Helicopter Society’s Vertifile Magazine, via WayBack (Spring 2002) – An Affordable Solution To Heavy Lift [PDF] by Lt. Col. James C. Garman, MH-53E pilot in HMH-772 and a Senior Preliminary Design Engineer in the New Product Definition Group, Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation. It describes the basic outlines of many low-risk CH-53X improvements.

• Naval Technology – CH-53E Super Stallion – Heavy-Lift Helicopter, USA.

• GE Aviation – GE38. CH-53K’s Engine, designated T408-GE-400 by the US Navy.

• MTU – GE38. The firms are partnering to develop it, with the German firm having an 18% stake; MTU will be licensed to offer it for any European FTH helicopter program.

• DID – Incoming & Hostile: The USN’s JATAS Aircraft Warning System. ATK picked, will be used on the CH-53K.

News & Views

• Flight International, via WayBack (May 10/10) – CH-53K delay will not hold up GE38 engine programme. Its potential uses go beyond helicopters, to include things like hovercraft, and GE sees its market potential as $4+ billion.

• Flight International, via WayBack (June 25/08) – GE plots GE38 engine’s future in emerging heavylift market. Offers further details re: the CH-53K’s planned engine.

• US DoD DefenseLINK: Transformation, via WayBack (Jan 9/06) – New Heavy Lift Helicopter Starts Development.

• US Navy NAVAIR, via WayBack (April 5/06) – $3B CH-53K contract awarded to Sikorsky.

• Jane’s Defense Weekly, via WayBack (Feb 24/06) – US heavy-lift aircraft will stretch state of the art. Full subscriber’s article includes JHL Program coverage as well.

• DID (Jan 9/06) – CH-53X (HLR) Program Moves Into SDD, Preliminary Design. An $8.6 million preliminary design contract is issued to Sikorsky, beginning the SDD phase. The CH-53X program is also redesignated CH-53K. Has the HLR program dodged the bullet?

• DID (Sept 27/05) – CH-53X HLR & JHL: Future Heli Programs on Collision Course? The shiny new (expensive, uncertain) thing may become the enemy of the necessary, proven thing in the US military’s procurement culture. Again.

• DID (Sept 21/05) – CSAR-X: And Boeing Makes 3…. The HLR program may be affected by the choices Sikorsky makes in the CSAR-X competition.

• DID (Aug 29/05) – HLR (CH-53X) Helicopter Program Moves Toward Milestone B Approval.

• Aviation Today, via WayBack (July 1/05) – Future Heavy Lift for the Marine Corps. An interview with Col. Paul Croisetiere, program manager for the U.S. Naval Air Systems Command H-53 Heavy Lift Helicopters Program PMA 261.

• Hill News, via WayBack (June 1/05) – House language could create friction over chopper programs.

• USMC, Leatherneck Magazine, via WayBack (May/05) – Heavy Lift Replacement: A Vital Marine Corps Program.

• American Helicopter Society’s Vertifile Magazine, via WayBack (Spring 2002) – From The Past To The Future Of Heavy Lift Part Three: Heavy Lift Helicopters [PDF].

Americas

• The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program will test the new Generation III Helmet-Mounted Display System this month, as it aims to counter problems with the jet’s ongoing ejection seat issues. Since August, a ban has been placed on lightweight pilots from flying the aircraft, as the current helmet may cause neck injury during low-speed ejections. The later version of the helmet is 8 ounces lighter than its predecessor, and is one of several options being worked on to counter potential injuries. The other options involve modifications to the ejector seat, and are scheduled to enter the production line this November.

• The US Navy has announced plans to “descope” the stealth requirement from the development carrier-based aerial system (CBARS). This will allow the tanker to be capable of firing missiles and dropping munitions. Dubbed the MQ-25 Stingray, the descoping marks yet another alteration to the program which had initially started out as the Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) program before a drastic U-turn took it away from ISR activities to that of refueling role. However, according to Vice Adm Joseph Mulloy, deputy chief of naval operations for integration of capabilities and resources, the addition of greater weapons capabilities will not see the Stingray spying, with destroying targets and refueling remaining its main mission.

• China’s defense exports to South America continue with the delivery of six new Hongdu K-8W trainers to Venezuela. Nine of the aircraft were purchased in 2013 with the final three expected to be delivered shortly. 18 K-8Ws were purchased in 2010, however three have been lost due to accidents. Beijing has also renewed ongoing military aid to Bolivia in a deal that will see $7.7 million made available over the next five years to go toward communications equipment, military transport, and technical assistance. China has made available over $8 million in Chinese military donations over the last nine years, which has mainly gone on transport vehicles, munitions, and patrol boats.

Middle East North Africa

• Israel hopes to have finalized details regarding a ten year US military aid package very soon, according to Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon. The package is believed to range between $40-50 billion, and if the higher end is granted, will allow for Israel to increase purchases of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. Iran, seemingly emboldened by the recent lifting of sanctions from last year’s nuclear deal also seems to be of concern for Israel. The recent launching by Tehran of two Iranian versions of the 2,000-kilometer-range North Korean No Dong, were inscribed with the Hebrew message “Israel must be wiped off the face of the Earth.”

Europe

• Dassault has experienced a 12-fold increase in defense exports in 2015. The defense wing of the company experienced an order intake for the year end (2015) at $9.2 billion compared to only $770 million in 2014. The staggering jump has been attributed to a year that involved the sale of 48 Rafale fighters to Egypt and Qatar, and further by the well publicized ongoing negotiations with India for a further 38 of the aircraft. Adding to the exceptionally good year was upgrade of the Indian Mirage 2000 fighter.

Africa

• Mali’s armed forces are now operating ACMAT’s Bastion armored personnel carriers (APC) after receiving training from Italian experts as part of an EU training mission there. 62 of the French manufactured APCs were purchased by the US in September last year, to be distributed among the armed forces of Cameroon, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tunisia, and Uganda which makes it possible that the APCs sent to Mali may have been donated by the US as well. The vehicles have been sent to help modernize the various armed forces in dealing with regional threats such as growing Islamic insurgencies throughout the continent.

Asia Pacific

• India’s Law Ministry has come out against the country’s Rafale deal, citing several issues in regard to the contract with French manufacturer Dassault and France. While the Defense Ministry has come out in support of the deal, refusing to answer any questions submitted by the media in relation to the issues, it seems that even a preliminary contract has yet to solidified. Costs and pricing still remain an issue, as well as a series of legal issues which are apparently weighted heavily in France’s favor. French liability has been described as “watered down,” with huge payouts not promising actual delivery. Furthermore, the French government continue in their refusal of a bank guarantee, instead offering a “comfort letter” from Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

• The Australian government has announced that it is to invest $4 million to further develop the Pegasus Aircraft Buoyancy System. Designed by Australian company One Atmosphere, the flotation gear aims to provide additional buoyancy to rotary wing aircraft that have crashed or ditched at sea, and potentially provide extra time for the aircrew to escape safely. While the system is to be initially tested on the ADF’s Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter, it could potentially be rolled out onto the Tiger’s replacement when the fleet is retired in 2025.

Today’s Video

• ACMAT’s Bastion APC:

Americas

• The USAF has earmarked $491 million over five years for the upgrade of B-52H radars. The modernization plan will replace the outdated Northrop Grumman AN/APQ-166 mechanically scanned array radar with further funds to be made available post-2021. The USAF strategy for the program has yet to be released, but it is likely that the plan will be to modify existing radar technologies and components to suit the B-52H, instead of developing something new, to increase reliability and durability of the radar.

• The US State Department has approved a $200 million Foreign Military Sale to Saudi Arabia. The sale will see the provision of support services by the United States Military Training Mission to Saudi Arabia (USMTM), which will be responsible for identifying, planning, and executing U.S. Security Cooperation training and advisory support for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Defense. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) did not elaborate on what exact training or services would be provided, although the deal would require the permanent or temporary assignment of as many as 202 case-funded US government or contractor personnel to Saudi Arabia.

Middle East North Africa

• An unknown Saudi Arabian order of 22 Hawk Advanced Jet trainers from BAE Systems has been revealed in the company’s 2015 report. This would double the amount to be procured by the kingdom’s air force, following the $3 billion deal for 22 of the same trainers in 2012. While little other information is given in the report, the deal does include associated ground equipment, and training aids for the Royal Saudi Air Force aimed at further enhancing their training capabilities. The news comes as BAE announced a sale increase of 7.6% for 2015, for a total of over $25.5 billion.

• A $3 billion Saudi Arabian aid package to allow the Lebanese Army to buy French weapons has been suspended. Saudi officials cited the lack of condemnation by Beirut over attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran for the cancelling the deal. The remainder of a further $1 billion package to help the Lebanese internal security service battle terrorism was also cancelled. The incident comes as one of a series highlighting the growing tensions between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’a Iran, with Lebanese Hezbollah a key ally of Tehran. Equipment to be procured included combat and transport vehicles, attack helicopters, three small corvette warships, surveillance and communication equipment as well as the provision of training maintenance.

Europe

• A modernization of Poland’s Leopard 24A tanks will involve collaboration between Germany’s Rheinmetall Landsysteme GmbH and Poland’s state-run defense company Bumar-Labedy SA. The $144 million contract will see Rheinmetall build a prototype upgraded tank, dubbed the Leopard 2PL, and modernize a trial batch of about a dozen units. As with all ongoing Polish defense deals, the next phase will see work domesticated after a knowledge and technology transfer to Bumar-Labedy, who will take care of the modernization of the remaining tanks. At present, the Polish Army operates 128 Leopolds after a 2002 purchase from the German Bundeswehr.

• Deutz AG is to provide new engines for armored personnel carriers (APC) for the Ukranian Army. The German manufacturer signed a deal with Ukroboronprom, Ukraine’s leading defense group. The engines will replace the older Russian made ones found in the Armed Force’s BTR-4 vehicles as Kiev looks to cut procurement costs and bring equipment in line with NATO standards. The new procurement deal is believed to save Ukroboronprom $25 million, with savings to go toward developing and producing new weapons and equipment.

Asia Pacific

• Speculation surrounding Indonesia’s fighter modernization have been put to rest. Jakarta looks set to sign a contract for around a dozen Su-35s to replace its aging Northrop F-5 fighters, and supplement a fleet of 16 Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30 fighters that form the backbone of its air force. Russian officials from the plane’s manufacturer United Aircraft Corporation refused to comment on the sale at last week’s Singapore Air Show, but it’s been reported that some of the components for the Su-35 could be made indigenously by Indonesian firms. Contracts for the deal could be ready and signed within a month’s time.

• Airbus has delivered the last of three C-295 aircraft ordered by the Philippines Air Force. Future sales to Manilla and other C-295 customers such as Vietnam and Indonesia could come in the future, alongside the smaller CN-235, for use in maritime patrol duties monitoring Chinese activity around disputed islands in the South China Sea. Sales of the C-295 have been growing steadily with operators found in most continents. The first sale of 2016 was recently announced by the company, with one C-295 to be delivered to the Mali Air Force in the second half of this year.

Today’s Video

• Actor Hugh Jackman flying a USAF F-16 at Naval Air Station Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base. Callsign Wolverine? :

Polish Leopard 2A4
(click to view full)

Germany is almost done selling off one of the world’s most impressive tank fleets, earning itself a solid market around the world in the process, and choking sales of competitive designs. In November 2013, Poland announced that it would buy a 2nd batch of Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, along with assorted other equipment. As usual, the package price was incredibly cheap: just EUR 180 million for 119 more tanks, plus range training fittings, machine guns, radios; and assorted armored tractors, cars, and trucks. Poland’s next question is what to do with the new gear…

Poland’s Leopard Cavalry Leopard 2A5
(click to view full)

Poland’s original set of 128 Leopard 2A4 tanks were bought and transferred in the mid-2000s. They need a full overhaul, and modernization would be an excellent idea. The new Leopards include another 14 2A4s, plus 105 of the more advanced Leopard 2A5s. This will form the high-end core of Poland’s armored brigades, with capabilities and survivability far ahead of its T-72 and PT-91 Twardy (locally designed upgrade beyond T-72M1) tanks.

The Polish Army needs commonality within its Leopard fleet at some point. Meanwhile, Polish industry is unhappy because the new acquisitions will replace the mothballed T-72 fleet with a German design, rather than having the MON fund a new Polish design by 2016. The logical solution is to involve Polish industry in a common upgrade effort that will begin by bringing the existing fleet to a more advanced Leopard 2PL standard, then follow by upgrading the newer Leopard 2A5s to create a common Polish standard.

Rumors have Poland looking for a final configuration that’s similar to Canada’s new Leopard 2A6Ms. That would reshape and strengthen the armor structure to 2A5 levels and beyond, upgrade the sights and communications, beef up the internal climate control to handle hot environments like Afghanistan, add extra mine blast protection underneath, and provide points to fit engineering utilities like dozer blades and mine clearance rollers.

A parallel track is working to make Poland self-sufficient in producing the 2 key ammunition types for its tank fleet: 120mm High Explosive shells for general use, and tungsten Armor Piercing Fin-stabilized Discarding Sabot shells for killing other tanks. Mesko S.A., which is being folded into Poland’s PGZ, has now received contracts for both types, and industrial investment is underway.

Contracts & Key Events Polish Leo-2A4s

February 22/16: A modernization of Poland’s Leopard 24A tanks will involve collaboration between Germany’s Rheinmetall Landsysteme GmbH and Poland’s state-run defense company Bumar-Labedy SA. The $144 million contract will see Rheinmetall build a prototype upgraded tank, dubbed the Leopard 2PL, and modernize a trial batch of about a dozen units. As with all ongoing Polish defense deals, the next phase will see work domesticated after a knowledge and technology transfer to Bumar-Labedy, who will take care of the modernization of the remaining tanks. At present, the Polish Army operates 128 Leopolds after a 2002 purchase from the German Bundeswehr.

October 6/15: Poland’s Armament Inspectorate has reportedly received three offers to upgrade the country’s Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks. Turkey’s Aselsan and Germany’s Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann are the three bidders, with a selection slated for later this month. The country has bought two batches of Leopard 2A4s from Germany, with the Polish Army also operating around a hundred more modern 2A5 variants. In total 142 MBTs will be modernized, with a prototype scheduled for production next year. The new design will be known as the Leopard 2PL, with the winning bidder set to collaborate with the Polish Armaments Group to complete the modernization program.

Nov 13/14: Ammo. The Ministry of National Defence’s Armaments Inspectorate signs a PLN 240 million ($71 million) multi-year contract for tank shells with Mesko S.A. at Lucznik Arms Factory in Radom. This is the companion buy to the Sept 27/14 contract, designed to make Poland self-sufficient in tank-killing APFSDS-T 120mm shells as well as high-explosive ammunition. The new shells will supplement, and eventually replace, German DM33A2 tungsten armor-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot shells.

Supplying 13,000 APFSDS-T shells from 2015 – 2017 is only part of the bigger industrial picture. The consolidation of Mesko and other firms into PGZ (Polish Armaments Group/ Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa in Polish) is still on, and modernizing the Lucznik factory is part of that. Polish authorities will invest about PLN 45 million ($13 million) in new tooling and technology lines, as part of Poland’s efforts to ensure “independence for the Polish arms industry in this segment of military production.”

Poland is taking significant steps toward a defensive posture that is part of NATO, but senior officials doubt that NATO would actually help. As such, they’re trying to rely on that help as little as possible. They aren’t withdrawing from NATO by any means, and are pursuing closer cooperation and training with the German Army that could extend to joint commands – but they’re also quietly reviving the Home Army by recruiting at shooting clubs, etc. Sources: Dziennik Zbrojny, “Polish combat ammunition for Polish Leopard 2 tanks” | Aviation Week Ares, “Poland and Germany Deepen Army Cooperation” | The XX Committee, “Poland Prepares for Russian Invasion”.

120mm APFSDS-T ammo & Poland’s posture

Oct 20/14: 2A5s. Leopard 2A5 tanks continue to arrive from Germany (q.v. Nov 23/13) by rail, to join the 34th Armoured Cavalry Brigade. They’re received by German contractors, who work beside the Polish Army on inspection and maintenance to certify their condition.

Of course, an order like this requires more than just tanks. Technical support vehicles and trucks, specialized technical equipment, AGDUS laser shooting simulators etc. also need to arrive. But the process is underway. Sources: Defence24, “Poland Receives More Leopard 2A5 Tanks”.

Sept 27/14: Ammo. The Ministry of National Defence’s Armaments Inspectorate finalizes a PLN 114.4 million ($34.8 million) contract with Mesko S.A. for 14,000 120mm high-explosive tank shells, to be delivered as a multi-year deal over 2014-2017 (q.v. January 2013). Negotiations were sole-source in order to maintain the same set of ammunition for training and supply/ support chain purposes, and to maintain Poland’s industrial base in this area. In addition:

“The administrator indicates lack of possibility of introducing another set of ballistic data regarding the new round into the fire control system of the Leopard 2A4 tanks. The fire control system of the Polish Leopards 2A4 has an option of introducing only one more type of ammo, but this slot is reserved for the new 120×570 mm round with a sabot projectile.”

Poland currently uses German DM33 aluminum/tungsten sabot shells, but they don’t have the same effectiveness against explosive reactive armors as the most modern AFPSDS ammunition. Sources: Defence24, “Polish Army Acquires New Ammo for the Leopard Tanks”.

120mm HE ammo

Sept 2/14: 2PL etc. Poland is backing off of its planned Leopard 2PL upgrade, until the major industry consolidation takes place into PGZ (Polish Armaments Group/ Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa in Polish). This will allow the MON to allocate this work directly rather than relying on chosen team-ups (q.v. Dec 10/13), but it also takes away a lot of the competitive incentive. What it will not change, is the need to find a partner from Germany or Turkey with the requisite know-how. An opportunity for KMW, and for Poland’s GAIN SA? We’ll see.

The initial 2012 plan involved prototype rollout in 2014-2015, with full modernization of Poland’s original Leopard 2A4 fleet taking place from 2015-2018. Unfortunately, waiting for PGZ will destroy that timeline.

Poland will also need to address the issue of armored vehicles to accompany 34 Brigade’s Leopard 2A5 tanks. 10 Armoured Brigade currently uses M113 tracked APCs and derivative M577 command vehicles alongside its Leopard 2A4s, but Poland doesn’t have uncommitted surplus armored vehicles to stand up the 2nd Leopard tank brigade. There are rumors that Poland is negotiating a transfer of mothballed M113s and M577s from the USA in order to fill this gap. That will bring the issue of a 2nd modernization to the fore, of course, in order to ensure that the new armored vehicles can all work together. Sources: DziennikZbrojny.pl, “Przetarg na modernizacje Leopardow z problemami”.

Dec 10/13: 2PL upgrade. Poland’s MON receives 3 responses to their modernization RFP. The teams are:

• Wojskowe Zaklady Motoryzacyjne S.A., Wojskowymi Zakladami Lacznosci, and Rheinmetall Landsysteme GmbH
  
• Bumar-Labedy, OBRUM Gliwice, and PHO
  
• PCO SA and Turkey’s Aselsan Elektronik

Sources: DziennikZbrojny.pl, “Przetarg na modernizacje Leopardow z problemami”.

Nov 23/13: More Leopards. Poland orders their 2nd batch of Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, along with assorted other equipment: range training fittings, machine guns, radios; and assorted armored tractors, cars, and trucks.

As usual, the package price was incredibly cheap: just EUR 180 million for 119 more tanks (14 2A4s + 105 2A5s), plus all of the extras.

119 Leopard 2s: 14 L2A4, 105 L2A5

Oct 30/13: 2PL upgrade. Poland releases an RFP for modernization of its existing Leopard tank fleet to the 2PL standard. Upgrades will include modifications including armor improvements, a suspension upgrade, and modernized sighting and fire control. It’s issued per Decision No 118 of the Minister of National Defence, bypassing the Public Procurement Law in the interests of national security. This allows Poland to issue the RFP to domestic firms only, despite EU regulations. The deadline is Dec 10/13. Sources: Dziennik Zbrojny, “Przetarg na modernizacje Leopardow z problemami”.

January 2013: Ammo. A contract is signed with the Mesko Works to equip Poland’s Leopard tanks with 3,300 more 120mm high explosive shells: 1,500 in FY 2013, and 1,800 in FY 2014. The contract could grow to 14,000 shells, over a period lasting until 2017. Sources: Defence24, “14 thousand shells for Polish Leopards”.

Additional Readings

Readers with corrections, comments, or information to contribute are encouraged to contact DID’s Founding Editor, Joe Katzman. We understand the industry – you will only be publicly recognized if you tell us that it’s OK to do so.

DID would like to thank our friends at DziennikZbrojny.pl for their assistance with ongoing developments.

• The Armor Site – Kampfpanzer Leopard 2. The best public information anywhere, all variants.

• Army Technology – PT-91 Twardy Main Battle Tank, Poland.

• DID – Poland’s Balancing Act: A Briefing for the Defense Sector – Part 1. Guest article from Avascent Consulting explains the PGZ consolidation among other issues. Part 2 link at the end.

• DID (Sept 9/14) – Polish Defence Modernization: Between strategic intent and spending reality. Dominik Kimla looks at a different aspect: asks if the TMP’s full $44 billion in funding will really be there, and what that might mean.

• DID (Sept 4/14) – Queen of Battles: Poland’s New Artillery Programs (2014 snapshot). Includes new self-propelled howitzers for use with heavy armored formations.

News & Views

• The XX Committee (Oct 30/14) – Poland Prepares for Russian Invasion.

• Dziennik Zbrojny (Sept 4/14) – Przetarg na modernizacje Leopardow z problemami.

• German Bundesministerium der Verteidigung (Nov 22/13) – Deutschland und Polen unterzeichnen Vertrag zum Kauf von Leopard Kampfpanzern.

• Polish MON (Nov 22/13) – Kolejne Leopardy dla wojsk ladowych.

• Defence24 (Sept 22/13) – Polska kupuje Leopardy. Early report of the deal, numbers are very close but not exact. Also points out Polish industrial grumbles.

• Altair (Sept 6/12) – e-RAPORT MSPO 4/2012 – Ku spolonizowanemu Leopardowi 2PL. Germany’s KMW signed an agreement with Bumar Group re: modernization of Poland’s Leopard 2A4s.

Americas

• Raytheon and the US Navy have successfully commenced operational testing of the new Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW C-1) at China Lake. The AGM-154 Block III upgrade incorporates a new Link-16 weapon data link and a moving maritime target capability. This was the eighth successful test for the air-to-surface missile after seven deployments in the developmental and integration test phases. The latest test has been described by Raytheon as “a challenging battlefield scenario [which] included a well-defended target that used tactical countermeasures.” Once the free flight operational testing is complete, the JSOW C-1 will be released for full use by the Navy.

• After last March’s dropping out by General Dynamics from the T-100 trainer program, it looks as if Raytheon may take the role as lead contractor in the project. The company will then join Alenia and CAE in their bid for the USAF’s T-X program, offering a design based on Alenia’s existing M-346. The eventual winners of the T-X competition will provide the Air Force with 350 new aircraft to replace the aging T-38 fleet used for advanced jet training. Their bid, however, is facing plenty of stiff competition; with a pair of clean-sheet designs being put forth by a Boeing/Saab team and a Northrop Grumman-led coalition that includes BAE Systems and L-3, the Lockheed Martin-Korea Aerospace Industries T-50A, and a design from Textron AirLand, which may be loosely based on its Scorpion jet.

Middle East North Africa

• The ongoing proxy war in Syria, and increased tensions with Russia, has led analysts to believe that Turkey is amending its short term shopping lists. The priority has shifted to increasing and updating its stocks of defensive gear and technologies such as stand-off jammers, aerial early warning and control aircraft, medium and long-range air defense systems, intelligence-based systems designed for better border security (such as the Gokturk 3 and Gokturk 4 satellites), and 3D radar modernization to name but a few. The installation of the S-400 air defense system has also resulted in Turkey halting its bombings of Islamic State positions in Syria, however it continues assaulting Kurdish positions there as well, along with Kurdish PPK positions in northern Iraq and within Turkey itself.

Europe

• General Atomics has received a contract to provide four unarmed MQ-9 Reaper UAVs and two Block 30 ground control stations to Spain. While Madrid may seek to arm the UAVs in future, it requires authorization from the US government before it can do so. However, this may not be too much of an issue, as both the UK and Italy have already been granted permission to arm their fleets with precision guided missiles such as the AGM-114 Hellfire. While the initial foreign sales notice posted by the US in October cites the cost of the hardware at $80 million, the total cost of procurement, training and logistical support could see that cost more in the region of $243 million.

• After much anticipation, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is to purchase two Airbus Defence & Space Zephyr 8 high-altitude pseudo-satellites from Airbus. Delivery of the solar-powered, long-endurance surveillance unmanned air vehicles is to be by 2017 at a cost of $15.5 million. While the DoD’s exact intentions for the aircraft’s deployment and mission remains unclear, they will now be utilized in a surveillance role and acting as a communications relay link for ground operations.

Asia Pacific

• Speaking at the Singapore Air Show, Boeing VP for Global Sales Jeff Kohler, outlined potential sales of military hardware, with Indonesia set to be the latest country to buy the CH-47 Chinook. While numbers have not been released, earlier reports put the acquisition at eight. Meanwhile, Japan looks set to order more F-15s to bolster and upgrade its fleet to face upcoming regional challenges while suffering cash flow problems. Boeing is also to provide two more of its early warning aircraft systems to South Korea after reports that the four previously delivered are being used constantly. Finally, the Indian Navy may add eight additional P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to those currently on order.

• Russian officials have confirmed that they are to sign a major weapons contract with Iran later this year. A sale of an undisclosed number of Su-30SM multi-role fighters could also be joined by Yak-130 advanced jet trainers, Mil Mi-8 light attack helicopters, Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters, in addition to K-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defense missile systems, frigates, and diesel-electric submarines. In total, weapons sales to Tehran could amount to over $8 billion. The shopping spree follows the relaxation of embargoes on the Theocratic state, following the scaling back of its nuclear research. Relations with western powers may also soften further following the upcoming elections to the country’s Assembly of Experts. A win by moderate reformers could lead to further improvements to its once pariah international image.

• Honeywell Aerospace is to become the largest non-Japanese participant in Japan’s P-1 program. The US company has been selected by Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) to outfit the new maritime aircraft with its electrical and mechanical systems, such as the 131-9J Auxiliary Power Unit (APU), alongside works on the Cabin Pressure Control System, Engine Starter Bleed System Valve, Exterior and Interior Lighting, Personal Oxygen Unit, Ram Air Turbine, Bleed Air System, and Sonobuoy Dispenser. The announcement comes as the demand for maritime surveillance and patrol aircraft is increasing steadily, especially in the Asia Pacific region. All countries in the region are undergoing upgrades to the latest systems in order to protect shipping lanes and boost their presence, as disputes over territory in the South China Sea continue to grow.

Today’s Video

• Super Hornet catapult shot on the USS Harry Truman. Just click and drag your mouse along the screen for a full 360-degree view:

AGM-154C, impact
(click to view full)

In March 2007, Raytheon received a contract to develop the AGM-154C-1 variant of the popular JSOW glide bomb family. This new version would add moving target capability via improved imaging infrared seekers, better seeker algorithms, and a 2-way Link-16 data link. That combination allows the missile to be used as a secondary weapon against enemy ships, with some capability against certain moving land targets. The 2-way link ensures that targeting commands can be received, and missile status and position transmitted back, right up to the moment of impact. Most of those options are currently found only at the high end of the cruise missile market, giving the AGM-154C-1 an interesting positioning as a cheaper short-range alternative.

That development effort was successful, and in late 2008, the US DoD gave the go-ahead for JSOW Block III, which will be integrated on US Navy F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets and on the F-35 Lightning II. Now, the JSOW Block III system is the default version under the US Navy’s full rate production contract.

Contracts & Key Events Heavy Metal

Note that other JSOW contracts have been issued within this time period. If they weren’t American contracts related to the Block III version, however, they’re not covered here.

Unless the entry says otherwise, Raytheon Missile Systems in Tucson, AZ is the contractor, and all contracts are managed by US Naval Air Systems Command.

FY 2014 – 2016

JSOW-C, Australia
(click to view full)

February 19/16: Raytheon and the US Navy have successfully commenced operational testing of the new Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW C-1) at China Lake. The AGM-154 Block III upgrade incorporates a new Link-16 weapon data link and a moving maritime target capability. This was the eighth successful test for the air-to-surface missile after seven deployments in the developmental and integration test phases. The latest test has been described by Raytheon as “a challenging battlefield scenario [which] included a well-defended target that used tactical countermeasures.” Once the free flight operational testing is complete, the JSOW C-1 will be released for full use by the Navy.

Dec 20/13: FRP-10. An $80.5 million contract modification exercises an option for 200 full rate production Lot 10 AGM-154C-1 JSOW unitary weapons, and a single AGM-154C-1 for a performance characterization test. All funds are committed immediately from US Navy FY 2014 weapon budgets.

Work will be performed in Dallas, TX (44%); Cedar Rapids, IA (24%); Tucson, AZ (22%); and McAlester, OK (10%), and is expected to be complete in August 2016 (N00019-13-C-0011).

FY 2014: 200

Dec 17/13: ANAO Report. Australia’s National Audit Office releases their 2012-13 Major Projects Report, which includes some interesting notes concerning the JSOW-C1. Australia had to place an interim buy of AGM-154Cs in time for the Super Hornet’s planned December 2010 Initial Operating Capability, but they won’t accept the JSOW-C1s and their moving target capability until February 2016. Why?

“The JSOW C-1 has been affected by software integration issues leading to an impact on Australian Super Hornet capability. The USN has slipped the integration of the JSOW C-1 into the next build of software for the Super Hornet…. The JSOW C-1 FOT&E test event in September 2014 has been affected by the integration issues with the software build leading to [test cancelation and] an impact on Materiel Release of the JSOW C-1.”

“There is [also] a chance that USN/Raytheon have insufficient Telemetry Instrumentation Kits (TIK) to support Operational Test and Evaluation (OT&E) and Raise Train Sustain firings of JSOW C/C-1.”

Oct 27/13: Testing. At the US Navy’s Trident Warrior 2013 demonstration, Super Hornet fighters simulated the launch of an AGM-154C-1 JSOW precision glide bomb, while the E-2D directed the imaginary weapon toward the positively identified target and received status updates from the “weapon.”

It mirrors a 2009 simulation involving a JSOW C-1 with a Navy P-3 Orion and USAF E-8C JSTARS battlefield surveillance aircraft. Sources: Raytheon, Oct 27/13 release.

FY 2011 – 2013

OT&E: weapon’s great but the UI sucks; F/A-18 Super Hornet integration contracts and testing; Australia commits to JSOW for its Super Hornets and F-35As. Hard hats required

June 5/13: FRP-9. An $80.5 million firm-fixed-price contract for 200 full rate production Lot 9 AGM-154C-1 JSOWs, including associated support equipment, plus 1 more AGM-154C-1 for testing.

Work will be performed in Dallas, TX (44%); Cedar Rapids, IA (24%); Tucson, AZ (22%); and McAllester, OK (10%), and is expected to be complete in July 2015. All funds are committed immediately. This contract was not competitively procured, pursuant to FAR 6.302-1 (N00019-13-C-0011).

FY 2013: 200

May 16/13: Australia. During Parliamentary hearings by Australia’s Joint Committee On Foreign Affairs, Defence And Trade, DMO’s New Air Combat Capability program manager, Air Vice Marshal Kym Osley, discusses the JSM and Australia, in response to a question from Sen. Fawcett. With Norway’s government fully finding the missile through F-35 integration in Block 4, Australia doesn’t need to be involved in that financially, and they haven’t made any commitments to JSM yet beyond discussing requirements etc.

Australia’s near-term plan is to use the AGM-154C-1 JSOW glide bomb as their initial maritime strike weapon, first on their F/A-18F Super Hornets and next on their F-35As. They believe that the USAF and US Navy will also make JSOW part of F-35 Block 4, which is planned to finish in 2020 and release to the fleet in 2021. F-35 software development remains very behind, but Australia hopes to have JSOW available on their F-35As by the RAAF’s own planned F-35A Full Operational Capability date, in 2023. Beyond 2023, Australia’s JP3023 program will be looking at a new maritime strike platform for use across its navy surface combatants and air force (F/A-18F, F-35A, P-8A). Hansard Australia [PDF].

April 26/13: Super Hornet. Raytheon Missile Systems in Tucson, AZ receives a $12.7 million cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order to integrate the new AGM-154C-1 JSOW into the F/A-18E/F aircraft’s H10E Operational Flight Program (core operating system) software.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, and is expected to be complete in February 2015. $7.7 million in FY 2013 Navy Weapons Procurement funds are committed immediately, with the rest available as needed. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, MD, is the contracting activity (N00019-10-G-0006, #2002).

Jan 22/13: Testing. Raytheon touts another pair of successful AGM-154C-1 integrated tests, this time against stationary targets with operationally realistic infrared and radio frequency countermeasures. Previous testing in the integrated test phase demonstrated JSOW C-1’s capability against 2 moving maritime targets, and those were also direct hits.

Jan 17/13: DOT&E report. The Pentagon releases the FY 2012 Annual Report from its Office of the Director, Operational Test & Evaluation (DOT&E). The JSOW C-1 is included. Short version: the report is very complimentary about the weapon’s accuracy, but says that it isn’t ready for prime time.

Without being more specific, they say that reliability is well below specifications, largely because of software-driven problems. The software is also really poor as an interface for the pilot, “excessively complicated and could prevent successful mission execution.” Raytheon plans to update the software, but once it does, some of the previous integrated test data won’t be valid any more.

The program is headed for an Operational Test Readiness Review (OTRR) in Q2 FY 2013.

Testers not happy

Aug 21/12: Testing. Raytheon discusses the AGM-154C-1’s initial integration test using US Navy Super Hornets. The test presented 2 maneuvering ship targets, and involved a handoff from one fighter to another, followed by a successful retargeting from the smaller ship to the larger ship.

The firm says that the program remains on track for reaching initial operational capability in 2013.

Dec 19/11: FRP-8. An $84.4 million firm-fixed-price contract modification for 226 more AGM-154C-1 JSOW glide bomb all-up rounds (in storage containers) with unitary warheads, including associated support equipment. This is full rate production Lot 8.

Work will be performed in Dallas, TX (44%); Cedar Rapids, IA (24%); Tucson, AZ (22%); and McAllester, OK (10%), and is expected to be complete in June 2014 (N00019-11-C-0032).

FY 2012: 226

July 28/11: FRP-7. An $85.6 million firm-fixed-price contract for 225 full rate production, Lot 7 AGM-154C-1 JSOW glide bombs with unitary warheads, including associated support equipment, and 1 AGM-154C-1 for performance characterization testing. The production lots involve all variants of JSOW, but new production lots have the Block III as the default version.

Work will be performed in Dallas, TX (44%); Cedar Rapids, IA (24%); Tucson, AZ (22%); and McAllester, OK (10%), and is expected to be complete in June 2013. This contract was not competitively procured, pursuant to FAR 6.302-1 (N00019-11-C-0032).

FY 2011: 225

Oct 15/10: US NAVAIR PMA-201 accepts an initial 11 JSOW-C1 production rounds. The JSOW-C1 is assembled at McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in McAlester, OK, and will be sent to the fleet once operational testing of its moving target capabilities is complete, in early 2013.

NAVAIR adds that the C1/Block III variant was “recently” tested during a 3-day Joint Surface Warfare Joint Capability Technology Demonstration, where the weapon was used in conjunction with an E-8C JSTARS ground surveillance aircraft, 2 F/A-18 Hornets, and 2 instrumented target ships. So far, about 3,500 JSOWs have been delivered to the fleet since 1998, with more than 400 used in combat. US NAVAIR.

Navy acceptance

FY 2007 – 2010

From development to full rate production; F/A-18 Super Hornet captive test. Send me a link?
(click to view full)

March 26/10: FRP-6. A $101.6 million modification to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-07-C-0093) for 313 full rate production Lot 6 (FRP-6) AGM-154C-1 Unitary Joint Stand-Off Weapon missiles, including associated support equipment. In addition, this modification provides for one extra AGM-154C-1, which will be used for performance characterization testing.

Work will be performed in Dallas, TX (44%); Cedar Rapids, IA (24%); Tucson, AZ (22%); and McAllester, OK (10%), and is expected to be complete in March 2012.

FY 2010: 333

March 4/10: Testing. Raytheon’s AGM-154C-1 JSOW Block III glide bomb hit a milestone by completing its first captive-flight test on an F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter, and demonstrating Link 16 compatibility. NAVAIR | Raytheon release.

Super Hornet flight

Feb 15/10: Testing. Raytheon announces that its AGM-154C-1’s Strike Common Weapon Datalink (SCWDL) communicated via Link-16 nodes with a Joint Surveillance and Target Attack Radar System (JSTARS) aircraft. The test demonstrated the weapon’s ability to function as a node on the network and moved the system one step closer to engaging moving maritime targets. The test was part of the Navy’s Joint Surface Warfare Joint Capability Technology Demonstration.

Feb 1/10: FY 2010 budget. The Pentagon releases its FY 2011 budget request. The USAF stopped participating in JSOW in 2005, but the US Navy continues.

The FY 2010 budget is $152.2 million (incl. $10 million RDT&E) for 357 weapons. The FY 2011 request is a slight procurement drop-off, to $143.9 million (incl. $12.9 million RDT&E) for 333 JSOW unitary glide bombs.

March 13/09: FRP-5. A $106.5 million modification to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-07-C-0093) for Full Rate Production of 280 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) unitary warhead AGM-154C-1s, plus 1 additional unit for performance characterization testing. Work will be performed in Dallas, TX (44%); Cedar Rapids, IA (24%); Tucson, AZ (22%), and McAllester, OK (10%), and is expected to be completed in March 2011.

The FY 2009 budget of up to $164.9 million covers 280 weapons, and includes $21.8 million in RDT&E finding.

FY 2009: 280

Dec 19/08: Testing. A $17.9 million modification to a previously awarded firm fixed price contract for the special tooling and special test equipment required to maintain Joint Stand-Off Weapons (JSOW-C) production rate requirements, and to support the transition to production readiness activities for the AGM-154C-1 Variant.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, and is expected to be complete in March 2010 (N00019-07-C-0093).

Sept 19/07: Datalink. Rockwell Collins announces an $18 million contract by Raytheon Missile Systems to design, develop, and produce the Strike Common Weapon Data Link for the JSOW Block III precision glide bomb and the next generation of Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The Strike Common Weapon Data Link Program is ultimately sponsored by the U.S. Navy’s PMA-201 program management office.

The 2-way, anti-jam, dual waveform (UHF and Link 16) datalink will add the ability to provide target updates from the launcher to the weapon or vice-versa, retarget the weapon while in flight, abort if desired, and provide bomb hit indication (BHI).

March 8/07: Raytheon Missile Systems in Tucson, AZ receives a $93.8 million cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order against a previously issued broad basic ordering agreement (N00019-05-G-0008), that covers multiple systems. This order will be used for the Joint Standoff Weapon AGM-154C-1 Block III Network Enabled Weapon Moving Target Capability and Seeker Obsolescence Redesign. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, and is expected to be complete in July 2009. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, MD issued the contract.

Efforts under this delivery order will include the design, development, integration, test and delivery of an AGM-154C-1 network enabled weapon moving target capability and qualification and production of a replacement for the obsolete seeker processor and detector components (Phase I). In addition, this order provides for delivery of a validated engineering change proposal (Phase II). See also Raytheon release.

JSOW C1 development

P-X Concept

In our article P-8A MMA May Become an Multinational Program, DID asked for reader input re: current Japanese projects in this area.

Andrew Durston of Smiths Aerospace pointed us to an 2002 article that offered a thought-provoking analysis of the Martitime Patrol aircraft segment, and noted Japan’s indigenous P-X program. That article was written before a contractor or aircraft model had been selected for the P-8 MMA System Design & Development phase.

P-X roll-out, 2007
(click to view full)

The first engineering and demonstration aircraft for the P-X maritime patrol and C-X transport programs are scheduled to commence at flight-test in 2007; they will eventually replace the Japan Defense Agency’s current 96 P-3C Orion and 26 C-1 transport aircraft. To take advantage of economies of scale, both aircraft, as far as possible, will have shared structure and avionics. Based on the rollout pictures, it’s interesting to note that both aircraft look a lot like their predecessors; the P-X has the P-3’s shape but uses jet engines, while the C-X strongly resembles the C-1.

The JMSDF has awarded the production of both aircraft to Kawasaki Heavy Industries in Gifu, Japan, which also manufactures Japan’s P-3C Orion aircraft under license.

The Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) is reportedly interested in creating mission system commonalities between their indigenous P-3 solution, the P-X, and MMA. A joint work effort between the Japan P-X and U.S. MMA programs has been underway for some time now, focusing on avionics and mission systems interoperability.

Updates

February 19/16: Honeywell Aerospace is to become the largest non-Japanese participant in Japan’s P-1 program. The US company has been selected by Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) to outfit the new maritime aircraft with its electrical and mechanical systems, such as the 131-9J Auxiliary Power Unit (APU), alongside works on the Cabin Pressure Control System, Engine Starter Bleed System Valve, Exterior and Interior Lighting, Personal Oxygen Unit, Ram Air Turbine, Bleed Air System, and Sonobuoy Dispenser. The announcement comes as the demand for maritime surveillance and patrol aircraft is increasing steadily, especially in the Asia Pacific region. All countries in the region are undergoing upgrades to the latest systems in order to protect shipping lanes and boost their presence, as disputes over territory in the South China Sea continue to grow.

Additional Readings & Sources

• Japan Ministry of Defence – Number of Major Aircraft and Performance Specifications

• Japan Ministry of Defence – Technical Research & Development Institute re: P-X, C-X. Tip from Intellibriefs’ June 12/07 article in English: “Japan’s C-X, P-X Revealed.”

• Defense News (June 18/07) – Japan Seeks To Broaden Aerospace Industrial Skills. Offers an industry-centric view of Japan’s P-X and C-X programs, which are designed primarily to keep its aerospace players somewhat competitive. The conclusion is that this works for Japan’s Tier 1 firms, but doesn’t bring Tier 2 & 3 firms up to global standards.

• NAVAIR News Release (Jan 13/03) – Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft: The Future of Maritime Patrol

• American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Aerospace America Magazine (April 2002) – Maritime patrol market: Escaping the doldrums

Americas

• The joint Boeing/Lockheed Martin protest filed against the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) contract awarded to Northrop Grumman has been rejected by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO). The complaint, claiming that the competition was “fundamentally flawed“, was filed last November and resulted in a three month delay in engineering and development work by Northrop. The GAO found no basis to sustain or uphold the protest, which analysts estimate to be worth over $80 billion over the course of the contract. With 100 hundred bombers to be manufactured for the USAF, Boeing can still bring the challenge to federal court as they look to make up for lost production contracts and potential job losses ahead.

• The US Navy has completed the first of two operational tests on Northrop Grumman’s MQ-4C. While data on the tests is still being analyzed, a favorable review could see a low rate procurement contract awarded in the second quarter of this year, a year ahead of the next operational test event. Initial plans for the UAV involve providing broad area surveillance over 5 orbits encircling the globe, then cueing the manned P-8A Poseidon to inspect closer or deploy weapons. Initial predictions of fleet loss of four per 100,000 hours led the Navy to order 70 to maintain an operational fleet of 20. This has, however, has come under scrutiny from the Department of Defense and could lead to the Navy reviewing and altering their attrition requirement.

Middle East NorthAfrica

• Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) has introduced a new series of loitering munitions at the Singapore Air Show. One of these is the Rotem L, a small grenade-carrying quadrotor which explodes on contact and is designed for use in urban operations. Alternatively, it can be fitted with a surveillance payload. The Harpy NG (New Generation) is designed to counter the newer types of air defense radar threats that have evolved since the introduction into service of its earlier incarnations. Improvements include a new Anti-Radiation (AR) Seeker fitted into the chassis of the Harop UAV, increasing its range and endurance. The final addition is the all-electric, cannister launched Green Dragon for operation by land forces. Designed to be a cheaper, more easily operated munition, it contains a 3kg warhead, a communications range of up to 21nm (40km) and a built-in “abort and go around” capability to prevent unnecessary collateral damage or mistaken targeting.

Europe

• The French procurement agency DGA is to recruit 160 staffers this year in an effort to improve organization and service surrounding foreign arms sales. By 2020 this number will increase to 500. With $18 billion in arms exports last year, the DGA hopes to continue this trend and to forge a “real partnership” in projects and programs according to their spokesperson. The need for this comes as customers are increasingly looking for deeper understanding in the specifications of the technology, such as India wanting to make Dassault’s Rafale fighters domestically, and Australia’s latest tender for an attack submarine which has French firm DCNS competing for the contract.

• Improvements in human rights have seen five years of EU imposed trade sanctions lifted on Belarus, however, its arms embargo will be maintained for at least another year. The move comes following peaceful presidential elections in the country, and the release of political prisoners in the country often dubbed Europe’s last dictatorship. As the EU looks to improve relations with countries neighboring an increasingly aggressive Russia, Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko may be seeking to improve his image abroad, as well as rely less on Russia for trade and ultimately, arms and defense.

• Following a custom $1.27 billion two-aircraft deal to provide an early warning and control (AEW&C) system to the UAE, Saab has officially launched the new early warning aircraft to the wider market. The GlobalEye combines the Erieye ER active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar with Bombardier’s Global 6000 business jet. The Erieye had been previously offered on the Embraer 145, Saab 2000 and Saab 340, but its incorporation on the Global 6000 will allow it much greater altitude and endurance capabilities, flying at 11,000 ft for 11 hours. The business jet will likely be armed with Saab’s RBS-15 anti-ship missile and a lightweight torpedo; possibly a EuroTorp weapon. Saab’s announcement comes as they look to provide maritime, land, and air surveillance capabilities to countries increasingly involved in anti-terrorism, anti-piracy, or territorial monitoring operations.

Asia Pacific

• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has started final assembly of their first domestically produced F-35A. Assembly has entered its final stages at the Komaki Minami plant, and it is expected they will have begun work on two of the fighters by the end of fiscal 2017. By 2020, this production will have increased to 16, and a total number to be manufactured in Japan is 38 out a fleet of 42. MHI will also be responsible for testing the jets stealth against radar. The experience gained by Mitsubishi in the development and manufacturing of the F-35 will help toward the development of Japan’s own next-generation stealth fighter, currently under development as part of the X-2 program.

• Despite last year’s rather public hullabaloo over Indonesia’s $120 million procurement of three Agusta Westland AW101 helicopters, Daniele Romiti, chief executive of Finmeccania Helicopters, maintains Jakarta is still interested. After a presidential order axed the acquisition of the VVIP helicopters, talks have apparently been ongoing over a renewed deal. This includes plans for a search and rescue variant, with a similar configuration to the Italian air force’s new HH-101 Caesar model. The news comes as quite a surprise, and if the deal goes through, would mark quite the turnaround from November. But with cost the main reason for the initial protests, a fresh round of media and political anger could be just around the corner.

Today’s Video

• Footage from the 2016 Singapore Air Show including South Korea’s Black Eagles:

Americas

• The USAF is considering defensive lasers for future fighters such as the F-35 and F-22, along with future bombers from 2021. A Request For Information (RFI) notice posted by the US Air Force Research Laboratory is looking for market information for a podded laser weapon system that can destroy missiles directed at stealth fighters and bombers. The search for an advanced laser, referred to as the Self-protect High-Energy Laser Demonstrator (SHiELD) program would be significantly more powerful than current-generation self-protection capabilities and potentially burn or otherwise disable infrared and radar-guided missiles at high speeds.

• The Pentagon is to invest in the development of Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles which will be capable of hitting moving vessels. $2 billion has been requested for the purchase of 4,000 Tomahawk missiles with manufacturer Raytheon. Raytheon has invested in a multi-modal seeker that would allow the missiles to hit moving targets so that missiles may be adapted from land missiles into anti-ship missiles. A further $2.9 billion will also be made available for the purchase of 650 SM-6 interceptors as well, to advance them to become anti-ship missiles for the first time. This will allow the SM-6 to operate in an offensive capability instead of operating solely as an anti-ballistic weapon.

• USAF orders of the F-35A jet will drop from forty-eight to forty-three in Fiscal Year 2017. However, the budget will include increased money to purchase ten additional F-35C models for the Navy and three F-35B models for the Marines over what had been planned. It’s unclear whether the total number of total aircraft to be procured under the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program will decrease overall. The move has not been too surprising as analysts and government officials have hinted that changes to JSF procurement could change. The cutting of the F-35As in 2017 is expected to free up millions in savings over the next several years.

Middle East North Africa

• Turkey may look to purchase four more airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft as part of an add-on option to an existing $1.6 billion order. With the original order placed in 2003, the last of four of the aircraft was delivered last December, after initial delivery was planned for 2008. Amid rising security issues along Turkey’s borders, after the eruption of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, and increased tensions with country’s like Russia, it is likely that more of the spy planes may be bought to help with reconnaissance and battle management operations. If the procurement is to go ahead, the planes would be bought under Ankara’s next 10-year procurement plan currently being drafted.

Europe

• The UK plans to buy two unmanned solar-powered aircraft, known as Zephyrs, which are capable of carrying small payloads that might consist of reconnaissance cameras or communications equipment. The Zephyrs hold the absolute endurance record for un-refuelled aeroplanes staying up for 336 hours, 22 minutes and eight seconds. Developed in the UK by QinetiQ, the technology has been recently bought and marketed by Airbus with the MoD’s vote of confidence expected to lead to an increase in sales. High altitude, solar powered planes have often been used for civilian purposes by companies like Google and Facebook to deliver broadband to locations that lack fixed-line connections.

• Former Communist-era jets and helicopters used by the Albanian Air Force are to go under the hammer later this month. The Chinese and Soviet Union built aircraft include 10 Mig-19s, six Mig-21s, six Yak-18s and four Mi-4 helicopters. They will be auctioned off in the capital Tiriana with the total value estimated at $483,000. Albania’s defense ministry has said that they only have historic value, and are for civilian purposes with expressed interest coming from museums and private collectors in Europe and the US. After seeing pictures showing the state of some of them, one would hope no one has ambitions to put them to military use as Albania says goodbye to relics of its past.

• Finland’s former prime minister has given his backing to the Saab Gripen as the jet of choice to replace the Finnish Air Force’s F/A-18 Super Hornet fleet. Matti Vanhanen stated his support for the Swedish aircraft in a book published this week mentioning the deepening defense cooperation between the two countries. While the government has yet to state any preference between the Gripen, Dassault’s Rafale, Boeing’s Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and the Eurofighter Typhoon, Vanhanen acts as a close advisor to current Prime Minister Juha Sipila. With a final decision not to be chosen until the 2020s, the Gripen looks to be gaining the early lead in a procurement that could range between $5-11 billion. While both Sweden and Finland are non-aligned nations, increased cooperation between them, Baltic, and other Nordic states are bringing them into closer cooperation with NATO.

Asia Pacific

• Chief of US Naval Operations, John Richardson, has said talks with India over development of New Delhi’s next aircraft carrier are progressing well. US assistance will mostly come in the form of providing new electromagnetic launch technology that will enable the navy to fly heavier planes from a carrier, and is set to become the biggest military collaboration between the two countries. The vessel, to be India’s third, will be their biggest one yet, and the third to be inducted into the Indian Navy. It will join the Russian made INS Vikramaditya and the indigenously produced INS Vikrant, which will enter service between 2018-2019 and will patrol the waters in the Indian Ocean. Increased naval activity from China in the region has worried both countries, and India has been bulking up their fleet with a dozen new submarines, six of them nuclear-powered and has more than 40 warships which are under construction.

Today’s Video

• The Zephyr UAS to be bought by the UK: