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Why the British Chose Brexit

Mon, 16/10/2017 - 06:00

The United Kingdom’s vote last year to leave the European Union was a seismic event. The British people ignored the advice of the leaders of all their major political parties and of virtually all experts. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, told voters that leaving would wreck the British economy. U.S. President Barack Obama warned that it would reduce the United Kingdom’s influence on the world stage. Financial markets, many pollsters, and political pundits all anticipated that voters would heed the elites’ advice. And yet they decided not to, setting off a process destined to transform the country’s politics, economy, and society.

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Preventing the Next Attack

Wed, 27/09/2017 - 16:43
The terrorist threat has changed since 9/11 and the United States must develop a strategy for this new phase in the war on terrorism.

November/December 2017

Sat, 09/09/2017 - 06:00

What Iraq's Kurdish Peshmerga Believe

Fri, 25/08/2017 - 06:00
Peshmerga views of the post-ISIS regional order are key to understanding Iraq’s political future.

China’s Coal Problem

Fri, 04/08/2017 - 00:39
Despite China's averred commitment to climate action, Beijing’s foreign energy investments so far paint a drastically different picture.

September/October 2017

Tue, 25/07/2017 - 06:00

Why Trump Pulled the U.S. Out of the Paris Accord

Mon, 05/06/2017 - 17:55
Trump’s decision to withdraw the nation from the Paris climate agreement was not based on science or sound economics, but on a confused, misguided, and simply dishonest desire to score some short-term political points with his voters. What he sacrifices in the long term will be immensely more difficult for the country to win back at the ballot box: authority, credibility, and influence.

A Tale of Two Tax Plans

Wed, 24/05/2017 - 06:00

Republicans have long panned the U.S. tax system; now they have a plan to change it. In fact, two plans. The first comes from Congress, the second from the White House. The congressional “Better Way” plan, championed by Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, and Kevin Brady, chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, would create a business tax system that has never existed anywhere in the world. The White House plan would enact a massive tax cut, mostly for the wealthy.

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Paris Isn’t Burning

Thu, 18/05/2017 - 21:19
Powerful economic and political forces will prevent Trump from destroying the Paris agreement. But he can still cause the United States serious diplomatic and economic pain—and cost the world precious time.

Trump’s Tax Plan for the One Percent

Mon, 15/05/2017 - 21:23
A tax plan that U.S. President Donald Trump produced in April suggested the biggest tax cuts for rich Americans in the United States’ history—and was bad news for the middle class.

The Lure of Europe’s Tax Havens

Mon, 17/04/2017 - 13:29
The 2008 financial crisis not only changed the shape and size of the global economy—combined productivity and employment shrank by 5.5 percent in 2014 across OECD countries—it also redefined how leaders across the world discuss and describe finance, banking, and wealth.

A Vision of Trump at War

Mon, 20/03/2017 - 21:30
Trump’s erratic style and confrontational policies are often condemned as dangerous. Here’s how they could actually lead to conflict—with Iran, China, and North Korea.

Trump and Saudi Arabia

Thu, 16/03/2017 - 05:00
U.S. President Donald Trump should rethink important elements of the so-called special relationship with Saudi Arabia. Specifically, the United States should cease to offer unconditional support for the regime, as such backing legitimizes the regime’s excesses and makes Washington vulnerable to accusations of supporting dictatorship.

The Trouble With Ceding Climate Leadership to China

Mon, 19/12/2016 - 17:00
If the Trump administration abandons the United States' leading position on climate issues, China will fill the vacuum. That would be a mixed bag for the environment, and decidedly bad news for the United States.

Are We Safe Yet?

Mon, 12/12/2016 - 06:00
Sooner or later, the United States will face another major financial crisis. Yet the tools policymakers have for responding are even weaker than they were before the last crash. Financial firefighters need more discretionary authority--not as a substitute for strong safeguards, but as a complement to them.

How Democracies Fall Apart

Mon, 05/12/2016 - 22:42
Data on authoritarian regimes show that until recently, coups have been the primary threats to democracy. In the last decade, however, populist-fueled authoritarianization has been on the rise, accounting for 40 percent of all democratic failures between 2000 and 2010 and matching coups in frequency. If current trends persist, populist-fueled authoritarianization will soon become the most common pathway to autocracy.

The New Dictators

Mon, 26/09/2016 - 23:01
Highly personalized leader regimes are coming to the forefront of political systems across the globe

Georgia’s Long Road to Europe

Thu, 11/08/2016 - 20:58
The 2008 war taught Georgia that confrontation with Russia is futile and that it needs Western support.

American Political Decay or Renewal?

Mon, 13/06/2016 - 06:00

Two years ago, I argued in these pages that America was suffering from political decay. The country’s constitutional system of checks and balances, combined with partisan polarization and the rise of well-financed interest groups, had combined to yield what I labeled “vetocracy,” a situation in which it was easier to stop government from doing things than it was to use govern­ment to promote the common good. Recurrent budgetary crises, stagnating bureaucracy, and a lack of policy innovation were the hall­marks of a political system in disarray.

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The Truth About American Unemployment

Mon, 13/06/2016 - 06:00

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession that followed, many economists worried that even if the U.S. economy improved, unemployment would remain high for years to come. Some warned darkly of a “jobless recovery.” Those fears have proved unfounded: since peaking at ten percent in October 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen by half and is now lower than it was in the years leading up to the crisis. Beyond the basic unemployment rate, a broad range of evidence shows that the labor market has largely returned to good health. Compared with earlier in the recovery, far fewer workers are underemployed or underutilized. Long-term unemployment has fallen steadily, from an all-time high of four percent of the labor force in early 2010 to just over one percent today.

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