Defence`s Feeds

US firm MAG Aerospace has acquired intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) integration firm North American Surveillance Systems (NASS). Terms of the deal, announced on 18 June, were not disclosed. Florida-based NASS integrates ISR systems onto fixed- and rotary-wing platforms, and

Americas

• US Marine Corps Task Force Southwest is contracting General Atomics Aeronautical Systems to boost its UAS system intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance surge. The un-definitized contract is valued at $39.56 million and will see for General Atomics to fly its own unarmed MQ-9 Reapers in support of US Marines missions in the US Central Command area of operation. General Atomics will provide a single “orbit” supplying coverage over one particular area 16 hours a day, seven days a week. The company could have to conduct missions lasting 24-hours or more in certain cases, but with advance notice. In January NAVAIR awarded a similar contract in support of USMC deployment in Afghanistan. The Marines currently conduct advisory missions in Afghanistan’s infamous Helmand province, as well as portions of neighboring Nimroz province, both of which border Pakistan. Work will be performed in Yuma, Arizona and Poway, California, the CENTCOM’s area of operatio, and is expected to be completed in November 2018.

• Metron Inc. is being tapped by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) for an effort titled advanced modular payloads for unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs). The $8 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract includes options, which if exercised, will bring the contract value to $21 million. This contract is part of a wider US Navy research project that seeks to develop certain kinds of software and hardware for advanced UUV autonomy and deployment. Future UUV’s will be able to operate in the open ocean and in coastal waters and harbors on missions lasting more than 70 days to gather intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) information. UUVs will be launched from a pier or a variety of platforms, including the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) and the Virginia class nuclear submarine via its payload module or an enhanced dry deck shelter. Work will be performed in Reston, Virginia, and is expected to be completed by December 2019.

• The US Navy is awarding a cost-plus-fixed-fee modification to General Dynamics Electric Boat. The modification is valued at $225 million and provides for work on the next nine Block V Virginia-class attack submarines. Block V submarines will be longer than previously built Virginia-class subs, to accommodate four Virginia Payload Module (VPM) tubes, which will each contain seven Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs). The VPM offers exceptional flexibility as well for the integration of future payload types, such as unmanned systems or next-generation weapons. Work will be performed at various sites throughout the US, including Spring Grove, Illinois; Bethlehem, Pennsylvania and Jacksonville, Florida, among others. It is expected to be completed by January 2019. The deal will see General Dynamics provide economic ordering quantity material for work in fiscal 2019 through 2023.

Middle East & Africa

• The government of the United Arab Emirates is placing a $38.8 million order with Saab in support of its advanced airborne early warning & control (AEW&C) solution GlobalEye. The Erieye family of Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft offer of small size, lower purchase price, dual air/sea scan capabilities, and comparatively cheap operating costs are making it one of the world’s most popular AEW systems. Saab is currently producing the GlobalEye AEW&C, combining air, maritime and ground surveillance in one single solution. GlobalEye combines a full suite of sophisticated sensors including the powerful new extended range radar (Erieye ER), with the ultra-long range Global 6000 jet aircraft. According to Saab, the Erieye ER gives the aircraft a 70% increase of the detection range (about 403 miles) compared to the previous version. The radar provides wide-area moving target indication (GMTI) as well as improved performance against small targets such as stealth aircraft, unmanned aircraft, cruise missiles or submarine periscopes. GlobalEye brings extended detection range, endurance and the ability to perform multiple roles, including tasks such as search and rescue, border surveillance and military operations.

Europe

• Jane’s reports that Belgium’s Air Combat Capability Program (ACCaP) is currently facing another roadblock, as the government considers a previously disregarded option to upgrade its incumbent fleet and not necessarily acquire a new-build aircraft. The ACCaP began in December 2015 when the Belgian government confirmed a requirement for 34 new multi-role combat aircraft to replace the 54 ageing Belgian F-16s in the 2023 to 2028 timeframe. Two offerings were being considered for the replacement of the F-16AM/BM fleet under the program, including the Eurofighter Typhoon and Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter. Final bids for the two aircraft were offered to the Belgian government under the formal acquisition process in February 2018.

• French defense manufacturer Nexter is currently developing its Katana family of 155 mm precision guided munitions (PGMs). According to the company the Katana munitions can be fired from all 52 caliber artillery systems, while retaining the traditional artillery qualities: continuous fire, all-weather capability, high cost/efficiency ratio. Its specific architecture, allows for Katana to be used for close support and will treat all types of targets thanks to its multi-mode rocket. The rocket is programmable to operate by proximity, impact, or with delay. With a maximum range between 18 miles for the first generation and 37 miles for the next, Katana will be able to strike targets with pinpoint precision. The projectile’s guidance is ensured by a hybridization between a GNSS signal receiver and an inertial measurement unit. In the future, meter scale precision will be accessible through the addition of an optional semi-active laser distance gauge.

Asia-Pacific

• The Australian Department of Defense is currently entering Phase 3 of its Land 400 procurement project. Phase 3 looks into ensuring the Army’s Close Combat Capability, primarily enabled by the current Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) and MSV mission systems. One likely contender will be German defense contractor Rheinmetall with its Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicle. Along with the Lynx KF41 family of vehicles, Rheinmetall has also designed a companion Lance 2.0 turret, which the German designer said will result “in a revolutionary IFV with a level of adaptability, survivability and capacity not seen before in an IFV family”. The modular survivability systems of the Lynx will also provide unprecedented flexibility for armed forces to cope with the wide variety of threats faced across the spectrum of conflict, Rheinmetall said. Should Rheinmetall be selected for the LAND 400 Phase 3 project, the Lynx vehicles will be built in Ipswich, Queensland.

• Recent video footage suggests that China is now able to deploy the submarine-launched version of its YJ-18 anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM). The YJ-18 is a vertically-launched missile that can travel at supersonic speeds of up to Mach 3 and has a range of 335 miles. It carries a 661 lb. warhead that can take out a destroyer-sized ship and severely damage a carrier-sized vessel. The YJ-18 system is designed for the destruction of various surface ships from an enemy’s landing squadrons, convoys, carrier strike groups, as well as single vessels and land-based radiocontrast targets in conditions of intensive fire and electronic countermeasures. The YJ-18’s ability to accelerate to supersonic speeds close to its target makes it difficult for ships to destroy the incoming missile with on-board guns. This ASCM also increases the stand-off distance for Chinese vessels and contributes to their anti-access area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. China’s A2/AD capabilities could prove critical during a conflict in the western Pacific and adds to its growing arsenal of anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles.

Today’s Video

• Skunk Works celebrates its 75th anniversary

In a recent television appearance, the Turkish Interior Minister, Suleyman Soylu, said that 15,000 Afghans have been sent back home from Turkey. While it is likely that this number has been exaggerated, there is no doubt that in April and May of 2018, thousands of Afghan migrants were sent back on charter flights from Turkey to Kabul. This is the Turkish government’s response after a 400 per cent increase in arrivals of Afghan migrants to Turkey during the first quarter of 2018. In early April of this year, the first charter flight carrying Afghans back to Kabul flew out of Erzurum, a city in eastern Anatolia that has become the centre of these returns. AAN’s guest author Amy Pitonak visited Erzurum to find out first-hand about the situation for Afghans there.

Afghans make up the second largest group of protection seekers in Turkey, totalling around 157,010 people. The largest displaced group remains Syrians who number approximately 3.5 million. However, they are classed under the ‘temporary protection regime’, rather than the “international protection regime” which encompasses all non-Syrian protection seekers. This number of Afghan protection seekers consists only of those who have managed to register in Turkey and maintain that status throughout their stay. It is likely that there are thousands more Afghans in Turkey who do not fall into the category of protection seekers (1). The Turkish Directorate General of Migration Management says 46,495 undocumented Afghan migrants have been apprehended between 1 January 2018 and early June 2018. Although this count does not specify how many of these are new arrivals, it is slightly more than the 45,259 migrants for the entire year of 2017 (for more detailed statistics on undocumented migration into Turkey, see here). The province of Erzurum in northeast Turkey has seen particularly levels of Afghan transit migration, given its locational on the migration routes to Western Turkey. The HurriyetDaily News has quoted government officials saying that over 20,000 undocumented Afghan migrants crossed through Erzurum in the first three months of 2018.

In April 2018, the Turkish government increased its efforts to stem Afghan migration across the Iranian border. These efforts began in Erzurum during the first week of April, after a group of Afghan officials arrived, at the Turkish government’s behest, having agreed to provide travel documents to Afghans detained in Erzurum’s removal centres so that they could be returned to Afghanistan. In previous years the Afghan government had been unwilling to readily provide such documents (see here). This visit only concerned the removal centres in Erzurum, although, judging by later deportations from other provinces, it is likely that the question of travel documents was raised in these locations as well. While removal efforts have spanned the whole of Turkey, Erzurum has witnessed the largest number of Afghans deported. Charter flights out of Erzurum have brought approximately 2,334 people back to Afghanistan (2).

The arrival of the Afghan officials to Erzurum was followed by high-level bilateral visits between Turkey and Afghanistan. On 8 April 2018, the Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım said, during a joint-press conference with the Afghan Chief Executive, Adbullah Abdullah, that the two countries “have reached an agreement on the matter of sending back those who arrive illegally.” (see here). However, there does not appear to be a formal readmission agreement between the two countries, and the Afghan government themselves seem conflicted as to what the agreement entails, or if any agreement exists at all. Hafiz Ahmad Mikhail, the media adviser for the Afghan Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, has said that his ministry had not been consulted about the deportations, and that no such agreement had been reached with Turkey (see here, condensed English version here).

This dispatch aims to examine the conditions in Erzurum given its importance as a place of transit, detention, and now deportation of Afghan migrants. It will then examine the deportations of Afghans on a national level, the laws surrounding detention and deportation in Turkey, and the possible motivations for the Turkish government’s sudden and widely publicised deportation initiative.

Reaching Erzurum

Erzurum has been a city of migration and transit for over a millennium. Located 2,000 meters above sea level on the Palandöken Mountains, it was a major stopping point for voyagers traveling from Iran to Western Anatolia on the Silk Road (3). In modern times, it has become a point of transit for Afghans who have crossed into Turkey from Iran. Erzurum’s authorities largely tolerated this movement, up until March of 2018.

In order to reach Turkey, most Afghans cross over from Iran by foot. It is the final stretch of a journey that spans Afghanistan, sometimes Pakistan, and Iran into Turkey, with Europe as the preferred final destination. Afghans coming into Turkey from Iran most often cross into Iğdır, Ağrı, or Van provinces and, to a lesser extent, the eastern portion of Hakkari province. It is often in these provinces that they meet up with smugglers who will take them further into Turkey. The district of Doğubeyazit in Ağrı, which sits on the Gürbulak border gate with Iran, is a known hotspot for smugglers, not only of migrants, but also cigarettes and narcotics. There are claims that Iranian border guards make no attempts to prevent undocumented migration into Turkey, with one Afghan migrant telling Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency that an Iranian border guard let up to 500 migrants pass in one night (see here). From these provinces, many continue approximately 300 kilometres westward into Erzurum (4). Those who are unable to find smugglers to take them by vehicle, or who are abandoned by smugglers early on in their journey, must walk.

The head of the Erzurum Development Foundation, Erdal Güzel, says that these flows into Erzurum started in 2010 and 2011. They were initially composed almost exclusively of Afghan and Iranian migrants. Over the past few months, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of Afghan arrivals, alongside Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, who had not previously been seen in large numbers. The Human Rights Association of Turkey identified most of the Afghans crossing through Erzurum in 2018 as young men between the ages of 12-25. However, there are also families and much more rarely, single women.

Güzel offers four explanations for this increase in arrivals: the end of a harsh winter in Turkey’s northeast, where temperatures reached minus 21.3 degrees Celsius in Erzurum this year; Erzurum’s reputation for having locals who are friendly towards migrants; authorities who were, until recently, willing to allow transit migrants to continue on their way;and, perhaps most importantly, a desire to enter Turkey before a 144 kilometre border wall with Iran is completed that spans the Turkish provinces of Ağrı and Iğdır. The Minister of the Interior said in May that the Iğdır portion of the wall is almost finished, with the Ağrı section 50% completed, and projected due to be finished by September 2018.

The instability of Turkey’s migration policies also has created a perception amongst potential migrants that Turkey is a safe transit country. Many of them saw the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s speeches, in which he said refugees were welcome in his country, or heard from family and friends that local authorities had a capture-and-release approach to undocumented migrants. This has led to some migrants coming to Turkey with high expectations, only to have those expectations shattered if they are arrested and told they have the choice of remaining in detention or being sent back. This disappointment is amplified by the fact that many pay large amounts of money to get into Turkey from Iran. A report by the Erzurum branch of the Human Rights Association of Turkey (IHD) placed the amount paid between 800 and 1,100 euros.

Erzurum also houses its own population of Afghan residents. The estimates vary widely regarding their numbers.  Güzel, head of the Erzurum Development Foundation, places their number at around 400 families. The Erzurum IHD’s migration commission gave a higher estimate of around 750 families. Güzel says that many of the Afghans currently residing in Erzurum were those who arrived in prior years and did not have enough money to continue their journey onward to Europe, and who choose instead to apply for international protection. They became used to living in Erzurum, and started learning the language and sending their children to school. Güzel says that the cultural similarities between Afghans and locals help in their integration, saying that the local population comprises largely conservative Muslims who feel it is their duty to accept refugees.

In Erzurum, where international organisations have less of a presence than in larger cities, local civil society groups, such as Ebru Ishak and the Erzurum Development Foundation, work to provide protection seekers with food, medicine and clothing (5). However, these civil society groups are forced to centre their work around Erzurum’s long-term population of Afghan migrants. In previous years, the Erzurum Development Foundation and Ebru Ishak were able to provide support for Afghans who were simply passing through, but now the demand has greatly exceeded their capacity. A member of the Erzurum IHD’s migration commission also says that, while these groups are doing their best to provide for Afghan migrants in the province, they are unable to fully address their socio-economic difficulties. The fact that there is no large-scale and comprehensive aid mechanism, paired with the migrants’ lack of knowledge of available resources and rights, means that living conditions remain difficult for a large number of Afghans, who often live in shanty-houses outside of the city.

Removal Centres and Deportations

Erzurum has two removal centres, or centres for foreigners placed under administrative detention, located in Aşkale. This is a small district with a population of around 22,000 people located an hour away from the city centre. Each centre has a capacity of 750 people, making them the largest in Turkey. Despite their size, they were so overcrowded this year that detainees had to be housed in gyms. The creation of these two centres was funded through the EU’s pre-accession funding (IPA funds). Construction began in 2011 and the centre became operational in 2015 (see here). These funds also contributed to the construction of centres in five other cities (6).

Prior to April 2018, Erzurum’s removal centres were rather arbitrary in how they dealt with undocumented migrants. While some were released within days to other cities, others were held for months on end, with no indication of when they would be released. However, starting in March until mid-May, no undocumented single Afghan migrant caught in Erzurum was allowed to go free. Single Afghan women have been treated the same as single men. Families, minors and pregnant women are allowed to go to other satellite cities in Turkey, largely of their choosing, or special accommodation centres in the case of unaccompanied minors with no relatives in Turkey.

In previous years, human rights groups have issued numerous reports highlighting human rights abuses at Aşkale. A joint report from 2016 by the Turkish migrant rights organisation, Mülteci-Der,andthe German ProAsylum organisation quoted a migrant who described the centre as: ” [Erzurum centre] was really difficult. The treatment was really bad. The conditions too…” (see here). In 2016, the Turkish Bar Association’s Human Rights Centre published a report in which they detailed instances of violence within the Aşkale centre, including severe beatings during an incident of detainee unrest, and the suspicious death of a Syrian detainee. Both these incidents occurred in 2015 (see full report here). An Amnesty International report in 2015, and an Asylum Information Database (AIDA) report from 2017 (please see here and here) document detainees having restricted access to lawyers, and an inability to contact their families. Güzel, of the Erzurum Development Foundation, points to overcrowding as the main source of problems inside the removal centres. Çorbatır agreed “as counts rise, so do the problems”. However, Çorbatır also added that, while conditions in the centres have improved over the past few years, these improvements provide only half of what is necessary. While European countries are keen to provide material support, there is also a need for personnel training and monitoring mechanisms. However, AAN inquiries found that the 2018 situation in the Erzurum centre has not improved for Afghans, with verbal and physical abuse being reported.

Often, Afghans who had stayed in the Erzurum centre for months on end had requested to be sent back. However, the Afghan government initially refused to provide travel documents for them, requesting proof that they actually wanted to be sent back. The matter of travel documents was resolved after an Afghan delegation visited Erzurum in early April 2018, and agreed to provide travel documents more readily. Several sources, including the Association for Solidarity with Asylum Seekers and Migrants (ASAM), say that the Afghan consulate continues to confirm that every Afghan sent back from Turkey did indeed request to return before providing travel documentation. According to ASAM, those who refuse are now sent to the Düziçi camp, in the Southern province of Osmaniye, where they are held while awaiting further developments on their case.

According to Turkish law, individuals cannot be held in removal centres longer than a year. They are not always informed of this fact while in detention. Others may not be aware that they can apply for asylum through the UNHCR and its local implementing partner, the Association for Solidarity with Asylum-seekers and Migrants (ASAM).  ASAM says that it informs the detainees who are able to make contact with them of their ability to apply for international protection from within the removal centre. It also notifies them of their right to appeal their detention and assists them in requesting legal aid in this matter. However, many Afghans may not even be aware of the existence of ASAM. Also, there is no set mechanism in place that would ensure that detainees are able to consult with them.

Amnesty International, in its urgent appeal from April 2018, reported that Afghans in the Düziçicamp had been coerced into signing return documents that are only in Turkish. There have also been cases of coerced signing of the return documents from the removal centres at Erzurum. In regards to return documents only being provided in Turkish, migration professionals in Turkey who AAN spoke to said that this was not the case in Erzurum, and did not see why it would occur in other camps. They described the standard operating procedure as providing documents in whichever language (usually Dari or Pashto) is spoken by the signatory, alongside a translator who reads the forms out loud. The Afghan government’s statement also corresponds to this. The Afghan Consul General in Istanbul, Zakaria Barakzai,said that the documents given to the Afghans were in Pashto, Dari and English. He emphasized that all returns were voluntary, saying that Amnesty’s report “does not reflect reality” (see here).

It is likely that, due to the signing of these forms, the Turkish government is able to classify and qualify these returns as ‘voluntary’. However, given the conditions in the centre, and detainee’s lack of information regarding their rights, it is questionable how ‘voluntary’ these returns actually are. Hafiz Ahmed Mikhail, the media adviser for the Afghan Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, echoed this sentiment, said “They have apparently signed papers for a voluntary return, but they were kept in camps where the situation pushed them to choose to come home” (see here). Ali Hekmet, the chairman of an Afghan refugee rights association in Turkey, said in an interview in April with Deutsche Welle that he did not believe the cases of the first wave of deportees had been examined, considering the size and speed of the deportations (see here).

Although the largest numbers of deportations were carried out from Erzurum, this location is not the only city from which Afghans have been deported. Based on announcements from the Directorate General of Migration Management on their official twitter account and to the press during April and May 2018, 1,326 Afghans were deported from the provinces of Ağrı, Izmir and Gaziantep (7),in addition to the 2,334 deported from Erzurum. Batman’s Provincial General of Migration Management also has said that 500 Afghans had been deported from there during the period from November 2017 to the end of April 2018, although it was not specified whether any of these deportations were framed under the Turkish government’s most recent initiative. The IOM records 1,142 Afghans being returned from Turkey through its Assisted Voluntary Return Program during the period 1 January 2018 to 2 June 2018, and said that it is not handling the caseload of the thousands of other Afghan deportees. However, it is unclear as to whether the Turkish authorities are including this number in their count.

Operations targeting undocumented migrants are also being carried out in provinces across Turkey. Operations in provinces that are considered to be ‘gateways’ to Europe tend to be large-scale sweeps in which undocumented Afghans are caught up alongside many other nationalities (such as an operation in Edirne that apprehended 571 people, see here). Others, such as a raid in Istanbul’s Beykoz district, which has been dubbed a “market for Afghan workers”, seem to be particularly focused on Afghans (see here). Several Afghans in Istanbul’s Zeytinburnu district, which also has a large population of Afghan immigrants, told AAN that police had been performing checks at workplaces, and asking Afghan workers to sign documents, give their fingerprints, and have their photos taken.

It is quite possible that the volume of returns in April and May 2018 has been exaggerated. The IOM in Afghanistan did not confirm the official number of 6,800 given by the Turkish government for the first week of the deportations in April. The total number of people deported, based on announcements by the Directorate General of Migration Management (3,670) is also far below the number given by the Ministry of the Interior. Moreover, while Turkey’s Migration Administration was quite public with its deportations during April and the beginning of May, reports of 50-60 Afghans being released from the Aşkaleremoval centrein mid-May may be a sign that Erzurum’s migration authorities are resuming their old practices of releasing undocumented migrants to other cities.

While this wave of deportations appears to be the largest, and most heavily publicised, it should be also noted that Turkey has been apprehending and deporting undocumented Afghan migrants for years. A notable example of this is Amnesty International’s report that 30 Afghan asylum seekers were sent back to Afghanistan directly after the signing of the EU-Turkey deal (see here). However, there are countless reports in Turkish media of undocumented Afghan migrants being arrested in previous years. These articles generally stated that the apprehended migrants “will be” deported. Since there is no effective monitoring system in place, there is no way of knowing whether the deportation procedures were actually carried out for these individuals.

Legal and Policy Framework

Due to Turkey’s application of the geographical limitation to the 1951 Geneva Convention, which stipulates that only those fleeing from “events occurring in Europe” can become refugees, protection seekers from non-European countries cannot be classified as refugees per se (see this AAN analysis here). Rather, they are classed under conditional forms of protection. While Syrians are classified under a separate “temporary protection” regime, other nationalities who are unable to return to their home country due to a fear of persecution, indiscriminate violence, torture, or other degrading treatment have the right to apply for ‘international protection status’. This status grants one the right to stay in Turkey, while awaiting transfer to a third country. This wait can take years, and those who cannot find a third country willing to take them may end up staying in Turkey indefinitely, with no right to residence status beyond that of international protection. Third country resettlements for Afghan protection seekers are decreasing: in 2016, 495 Afghans were resettled from Turkey, while in 2017, that number dropped to 213 Afghans. For both years, the US and the UK were the only two countries to take in Afghan protection seekers from Turkey. For the first quarter of 2018, 27 Afghans were resettled; 23 to the US and four to Canada.

Despite Turkey’s application of the geographical limitation, the principle of non-refoulement is still recognized in Turkish law. Article 4 of Turkey’s Law No. 6458 on Foreigners and International Protection (LFIP) states that no one “shall be returned to a place where he or she may be subjected to torture, inhuman or degrading punishment or treatment or, where his/her life or freedom would be threatened on account of his/her race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.” Article 63 of this law also states that those facing serious threat owning to violence or conflict in their country may avail themselves of subsidiary protection.  Applicants or beneficiaries of international protection are not to be subjected to removal decisions unless they are found to be a threat to national security, or are convicted for an offense against public order. Moreover, the cases of all foreigners subject to removal proceedings must be examined individually to determine whether or not they meet the criteria for international protection prior to deportation, as per Article 4(2) of the Implementation Regulation of the LFIP. Judging by the size and speed of Turkey’s deportations of Afghan migrants, numbering at the very least 3,670 between 8 April and 5 May 2018, it is doubtful that Turkish authorities were able to comprehensively examine the files of all deportees.

In relation to detention, Article 57 (2) of the LFIP states that foreigners subject to a removal decision may be placed in administrative detention if they are a flight risk, have breached entry or exit rules, have used fake documents, have not left Turkey, and/or pose a security or health threat. The case of those in administrative detention is to be reviewed regularly, and is to be immediately suspended if no longer necessary. Administrative detention can be extended for a maximum length of one year, and detained foreigners have the right to appeal, with free legal counsel to be provided for those unable to pay for an attorney. However, Article 96(7) of the Implementation Regulation on the LFIP states that those who apply for international protection while already in administrative detention will continue to be detained on the basis of Article 57. (8) Since the decisions regarding whether or not to place and keep a foreigner in detention is largely up to the discretion of a province’s migration authority, the application of the laws governing detention varies between provinces, and even amongst implementing officials, as evidenced by the uneven application of detention procedures in Erzurum.

Turkey has no formal readmission agreement with Afghanistan, such as those that Turkey has entered into with Ukraine, Nigeria, and several other countries. During his visit to Afghanistan on 8 April 2018, following the arrival of a delegation of Afghan officials to Erzurum, the Turkish Prime Minister, Binali Yıldırım, emphasized that Turkey and Afghanistan’s cooperation in regards to the question of refugees was nothing new as it dated back to 2015 and even before. Indeed, Turkey and Afghanistan signed the ‘Strategic Cooperation and Friendship’ agreement in October of 2014, whose second article on security mentions cooperation in the areas of undocumented migration and border control (see full text of agreement here). Thus, the ‘agreement’ that Yıldırımannounced as having reached with Afghanistanmay simply be applying the second article of the 2014 agreement with renewed vigour. It is also possible that Yıldırım was referring to the proposal of a readmission agreement, rather than a signature; the EU’s Turkey Report, dated April 17th 2018, says that a draft proposal for a readmission agreement had been submitted to Afghanistan, but Turkey was still awaiting a response.

Motivations behind the Returns

Given the clarity of Turkey’s laws against refoulement, one may wonder why the Turkish government, who often touts its treatment of migrants as more humanitarian than that of the West, would be so vocal about mass deportations to one of the world’s most conflict stricken countries. There are three possible answers to this: the sudden media storm surrounding the arrival of Afghans from Iran; the upcoming elections on 24 June 2018; and, a desire to extract more funding from the EU.

The outcry in the media over the arrival of Afghan migrants may have pushed the Turkish government to show it was taking action on the issue. After a widely circulated article by CNN Turk published on 30 March 2018 quoted Erdal Güzel, of the Erzurum Development Foundation, as saying that “1.5 million people were waiting to enter Turkey”, media reactions to Afghan migrants in Turkey blossomed into hysteria. Articles emerged qualifying Afghan migration into the country as a “great danger”, as “waves” coming into the country, and as an “explosion of illegal migration”. While Güzel stood by this 1.5 million number in his conversations with me, he did say that the subsequent reporting on it was over-the-top. However, Selin Unal, the UNHCR’s Turkey spokesperson, said that this number could not be confirmed.

The snap elections for 24 June 2018,  called on 18 April  may also have contributed to the return decisions. It is likely that the current government, led by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) wished to show itself as tough on migration prior to these elections amidst a domestic atmosphere that is increasingly hostile to migration, and an opposition that has often criticized the AKP for its “soft” migration policies. Three days prior to Prime Minister Yıldırım’s visit to Afghanistan, an MP for the main opposition Republican People’s Party, Fikri Sağlar, spoke in parliament on the dangers of the AKP’s open-door policy towards refugees, adding that the public needed to be informed of the mechanisms behind the Erzurum Migration Administration’s policy of giving Afghan migrants travel documents and sending them to other provinces. The Iyi party, another opposition party seen as being able to attract votes away from the AKP, has also made combatting undocumented migration part of its election platform. It is likely that the current government feared that any inaction on the issue of undocumented Afghan migration would provide easy fodder for the opposition, and decided to take drastic, and public, measures. Undocumented migration features heavily in the AKP’s election manifesto, including mention of plans for a “national voluntary return mechanism”.

The deportations may also be a way for Turkey to pressure the EU for more funding to combat undocumented migration. Interior Minister Soylu addressed Europe in a recent speech, pointing out that migration from Turkey to Greece had fell from 8,500 a day to 61, and saying “If you want, we can open the doors….we are doing you a favour-acknowledge it” (see here). In their speeches, Turkish officials have also exaggerated the increase in Afghan migration, possibly in an attempt to magnify the perceived effects of the deportations. European countries have not shied away from providing Turkey with aid to prevent undocumented migrants from reaching their borders. Projects that were recorded as ongoing at the end of 2017 included 60 million Euros in IPA funds to meet the needs of returnees to Turkey under the EU-Turkey deal and other undocumented migrants apprehended in Turkey. The UK also allotted around 1,3 million pounds for projects relating to voluntary returns, combatting undocumented migration, and maintaining removal centres. The mass return of Afghans demonstrates that Turkey is putting these funds to use, while also implying that a new wave of migrants could reach Europe if the funding is cut (for in-depth analyses on Afghan migration to Europe see this AAN thematic dossier) .

‘Voluntary returns’ as an effective deterrent?

The Afghan and Turkish governments’ lack of transparency on return procedures, number of returnees, and existence of an agreement makes independent monitoring of the situation nearly impossible. This lack of transparency also enables the arbitrary application of Turkish laws on detention and deportation. Obscuring the return mechanism and number of returnees may be intentional, as it provides the Turkish government with a means of touting its number of returns to a domestic audience, but without facing possible repercussions for unlawful deportations, while also enabling the Afghan government to avoid domestic and international condemnation for facilitating these returns.

The European Union also should reconsider funding removal centres that have questionable human rights records, as they are potentially sending people who meet the criteria for protection status back to danger. Several Turkish migration researchers and humanitarian workers told AAN that these returns implicitly suit the EU’s interests by preventing Afghan migrants from reaching Europe via land and sea routes from Western Turkey. Humanitarian workers in Erzurum also questioned why a community in one of Turkey’s poorest regions was expected to accommodate thousands of Afghan migrants with what they perceive as limited support in terms of aid from the EU, when the EU is unwilling to resettle even a portion of these migrants on its own territory.

Erdal Güzel says that no matter what measures are put into place, Afghans will still find a way to come to Turkey, considering the immeasurable risks they have already proven willing to take. Deportees on one of the flights from Erzurum seemed to confirm this, telling reporters that “We will return, either illegally or with a passport.” (see here).  If this is proven to be true, it is likely that Erzurum will remain a point of transit, and sometimes refuge, for Afghans who cross into Turkey from the Iranian border. In his pamphlet The Fall of Kars, Karl Marx wrote that Erzurum is the key to Istanbul. It appears that recent developments are giving a new meaning to this statement; we might now say that that Erzurum is the key to Europe as well.

 

 

(1) One member of parliament from the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has said that there are approximately 200,000 Afghans living in Istanbul alone, while Yaşar Yıldız, President of the Afghan Turk Foundation, places the total number of Afghans in Turkey at close to 450,000.

(2) Not all of the people on these flights were detained in Erzurum; detainees from Ağrıand Van were also brought to Erzurum in order to be deported, as Erzurum’s airport is bigger.

(3) Erzurum was also a strategic city during the Russian-Ottoman wars, which, themselves, created major population movements to and from the region.  It also witnessed a massive exodus of Armenians in 1915-1916 during what most of the international community calls the Armenian genocide, but which locals insist was a period of mutual violence.

(4) While Erzurum is the primary point of transit for those crossing from Ağrı and Iğdır, some may travel through the Black Sea provinces.  Afghans crossing through from Van also frequently cross through Erzurum. However, others have continued on the Muş-Bitlis highway further south. Those who crossed through from Hakkari may travel northward towards Van before going west, or far more rarely, continue traveling through Turkey’s southern provinces.

(5) Ebru Ishak, which provides daily hot meals, as well as a supply of dry goods and bread, feeds around 600 people a day, the majority of them Afghan and Iranian migrants. They provide food at a centre for under-age migrants in Erzurum, which houses around 200 people. The Erzurum Development Foundation also provides basic goods to migrants in need. It is also trying to expand its efforts to get young protection seekers into university, and is currently providing university test preparation to a group of Afghan students.

(6) The other centres built with EU funding are in Gaziantep, Van, Kayseri, Izmir, and Kırklareli.Although six of the seven centres were meant to be ‘reception’ rather than ‘removal’ centres, Metin Çorbatır of IGAM, an independent research centre focusing on migration and asylum in Turkey, says that all seven have been turned into removal centres now. There are a total of 18 removal centres in Turkey, with a total capacity of 8,276 people, alongside the Düziçi container camp, which has a capacity of 4,000 and is now being used as a removal centre. There are also plans to build another removal centre atIğdıraimed at stemming Afghan migration flows. The Aşkaleremoval centres’ operations are currently funded through a combination of EU funds, and funds from individual countries, such as Holland, or the UK, some of which are channelled through the IOM as funds for “capacity building”.

(7) In April 2018, 227 Afghans were deported from Ağrı, and 324 from Izmir; in May, 324 Afghans were deported from Izmir, and 451 from Gaziantep.

(8) Rather than the Article 68 of the LFIP, which states that international protection applicants are not to be placed in detention except under exceptional circumstances, and this is not to exceed thirty days

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Americas

• The Navy is ordering protective systems in support of its V-22 aircraft. The $20 million fixed-price indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract sees for the production of up to 200 Ballistic Protection System panel sets and single floor spares for the V-22 by MACRO Industries. The V-22 has specific Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) driven aircraft vulnerability programmatic requirements and was a lead aircraft subject to Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) oversight with the Live Fire Test Law passed in 1987. Many vulnerability reduction techniques have been applied to the V-22 airframe. These technologies range from inherent structural design requirements such as ballistic protection panels to active fire suppression systems to prevent sustained fire in the aircraft. Work will be performed in Huntsville, Alabama, and is expected to be completed in June 2023.

• The Navy is contracting Advanced Acoustic Concepts LLC in support of the Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) platform. The cost-plus-fixed-fee and cost-reimbursement modification is valued at $12.2 million and provides for software engineering services to support the LCS Mission Modules program. The Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship has been designed to counter a number of “asymmetric” threats like coastal mines, quiet diesel submarines, global piracy, and terrorists on small fast attack boats. Instead of designing a single platform that is able to take over those tasks the Navy opted for developing a ship that can be adapted to specific mission requirements by integrating swappable mission modules. Therefore, the LCS program includes packages for Mine Warfare, Anti-submarine Warfare and Surface Warfare. The LCS Mission Modules Program Office packages a variety of technologies to these ends, many of which are produced by other program offices and delivered as elements of a particular mission module. Work will be performed in Hauppauge, New York; Columbia, Maryland and Lemont Furnace, Pennsylvania, and is expected to be completed by June 2019.

• Oshkosh Defense LLC is being awarded a contract modification by the US Army. The modification is valued at $18 million and supports the production of vehicles belonging to the Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles. Oshkosh has provided the core of the US Army’s Heavy Tactical Vehicle capability for over 20 years. The awarded contract provides for work on recapitalized guided missile transport trucks, recapitalized load handling system trucks, new palletized load system trucks and new palletized load system trailers. Work will be performed in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, with an estimated completion date of January 2020.

Middle East & Africa

• The government of Armenia is reportedly in the final stages of negotiating the procurement of fighter jets from Russia. It is expected that the Armenian government will sign a contract for the delivery of a yet unspecified number of Su-30SM aircraft in 1 to 2 years. The Su-30SM is a multirole fighter aircraft developed by JSC Sukhoi Design Bureau for the Russian Air Force. It is an advanced derivative of the Su-30MK combat aircraft family. The Su-30SM can be deployed in counter-air strikes, counter-land and counter-sea missions. It can conduct electronic counter-countermeasures and early warning tasks. The aircraft also acts as a command-and-control platform within a fleet of combat aircraft performing joint missions. The Armenian Air Force currently has a fleet of old Su-25 and MiG-29 fighter jets.

Europe

• The Slovakian Armed Forces are currently fielding their upgraded Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs). The upgrade of the BMP-1 Svatava is being performed by Slovak company Konštrukta Defence. The Svatava is a modernized version of the BMP-1 dating from the 1980s. The BMP-1 Svatava, or BPsVI is an armored reconnaissance vehicle. Its turret is equipped with the Turra 30 remote controlled weapon station (RCWS) armed with a 30mm 2A42 automatic cannon, a PKT 7.62mm coaxial medium machinegun and a twin launcher of Konkurs (AT-5 Spandrel) ATGMs. Additionally, the turret is fitted with a fire control system, laser warning system, smoke grenades, commander observation and aiming sight day TV camera, thermal camera and laser range finder. The performed upgrades will extend the lifetime of the IFVs by at least 20 years and costs less than procuring new vehicles. A total of 35 upgraded IFVs will be delivered to the Slovak ISTAR Battalion.

• Jane’s reports that the UK military has lost another Thales WK 450 Watchkeeper to an accident. Britain’s Watchkeeper Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Program was devised to give the Royal Artillery an advanced mid-range UAV for surveillance and is complementary to other ISTAR systems in the Royal inventory. The Watchkeeper platform is based on Elbit Systems’ Hermes 450 UAV platform. The UAV is designed to provide continuous 24/7 surveillance when needed, using unmanned air vehicles able to stay airborne for more than 16 hours each through night and poor weather. So far, the UK military has lost five Watchkeepers, three of which crashed in the last 12 months. The Watchkeeper UAV and 47 Regiment Royal Artillery that operates it were due to achieve full operating capability (FOC) earlier in 2018, but this milestone was postponed after the platform failed to obtain a key flight safety certificate in November 2017.

Asia-Pacific

• The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) is planning to equip its fleet of Northrop F-5 fighters with IRIS-T short-range air-to-air missiles. The Thai government recently signed a repeat order with German manufacturer Diehl Defense. The IRIS-T missile emerged after Germany pulled out of the joint US-UK-German ASRAAM program. The IRIS-T family of missiles includes three variants: the IRIS-T air-to-air guided missile, the IRIS-T SL (Surface Launched) medium range guided missile and the IRIS-T SLS (Surface-Launched, Short-Range) guided missile. The missile incorporates a tail-controlled, winged airframe design using completely newly developed components. Its main segments include a guidance section, warhead, rocket motor and control section with fins and jet vane. The IRIS-T entered service in December 2005 with the air forces of participating program nations including Germany, Greece, Italy, Norway, Sweden and Spain. The export customers of the IRIS-T are Austria, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Thailand.

• Malaysia’s defense contractor Kembara Suci is currently awaiting a firm order for its newly developed special operations vehicle (SOV). The SOV will replace the current fleet of Mercedes-G jeeps. Kembara Suci’s SOV is powered by a Caterpillar 5-cylinder line diesel developing 197hp at 2,400 rpm and is fitted with 70R17 pneumatics. At prototype stage, it features front independent suspensions of the double whish-bone type with coil springs, while at the rear we find leaf springs on a rigid axle. It carries four passengers in the seats plus a fifth operator in the back, manning the 40 mm AGL. On top of the troop compartment we find a 12.7 MG, while the vehicle commander on the left has a 7.62 mm machine gun at his disposal. The company is quoting a gross vehicle weight (GVW) of 7,000 lb. This includes a 3,306 lb. payload comprising 21 gallons of fuel, the crew, weapons, ammunition, water stowed in containers either side of the rear stowage area, and other essential equipment.

Today’s Video

• Rheinmetall shows its KF41 Lynx next-gen combat vehicle

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Ceasefires by the government, the Taleban and the United States over the Muslim holiday of Eid ul-Fitr has partially ended with the Taleban ordering their fighters back to “normal operations.” However, the three-day truce resulted in an unprecedented peaceful movement of fighters and soldiers into territories controlled by the other. The media was full of pictures and videos of Afghans in uniform or wearing black turbans fraternising with each other and with civilians. The Taleban rejected President Ashraf Ghani’s call to join government forces in extending the ceasefire, and some Taleban attacks were reported on 18 June, the day after their ceasefire ended. Nevertheless, says AAN Co-Director Kate Clark, the genie may be out of the bottle. It may now be more difficult for those who have just celebrated Eid together to return to killing (with input from Thomas Ruttig, Ehsan Qaane, Rohullah Sorush, Ali Yawar Adli and Ali Mohammad Sabawoon).

The ceasefire to mark the end of Ramadan was a government idea. On 7 June 2018, President Ghani called a unilateral halt to all offensive government actions from the 27thday of Ramadan to the fifth day of Eid (12-19 June). (1) That appears to have bounced the Taleban leadership into announcing their own three-day Eid ceasefire two days later, although they did not refer to the government announcement. It would have reflected badly on the movement if it had insisted on continuing to fight and kill during the religious holiday when the enemy said it would not.

Matters did not look encouraging during the days of the government’s unilateral ceasefire before Eid, when Taleban killed dozens of members of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in attacks in Jalrez district of Maidan Wardak, Jurm in Badakhshan, Muqur of Ghazni, Kohistan in Faryab (capturing the district centre and killing the district governor, among others), Qala-ye Zal of Kunduz, Zawol in Herat – a sub-district of Shindand –  and Sayad in Sar-e Pul (press reporting here, here and here [in German]). Even so when the end of Ramadan came and the Taleban truce kicked in, the cadres stopped fighting. They not only obeyed the order to cease fire, but went a lot further than the Taleban leadership could have imagined.

The ceasefire begins

Combatants and officials mainly, but not exclusively from the Taleban, took the opportunity to visit places and see people they had not seen for years (see the annex for a list of reported events). They filmed and photographed themselves, including taking selfies with the enemy and posted the pictures online. Anyone with a smart phone and internet connection has been able to see peace breaking out in many parts of the country: joint Eid prayers, members of the Taleban and Afghan National Security Forces embracing each other, euphoric crowds, a Taleb handing out roses to Afghan army soldiers, Interior Minister Wais Barmak coming back from Maidan Wardak stopping his car to greet some Taleban who had entered Kabul. Such ‘fraternisation events’ were reported in Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul, Uruzgan, Farah, Ghazni, Paktia, Paktika, Logar, Wardak, Kabul, Laghman, Nangarhar, Kunduz, Takhar, Baghlan, Faryab and Badghis. Quite a few meetings involving ‘seniors’ – government and shadow district and provincial governors, police and army chiefs and Taleban commanders – were also reported to have taken place during the three-day truce:

• The Badghis governor Abdul Ghafur Malekzai met Taleban

Provincial governor of Badghis is taking selfie with Taliban fighters #Ceasefire #Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/yIfQlhU281

— HBABUR (@Humayoonbabur) June 16, 2018

• The Farah governor Basir Salangi met Taleban

#Farah governor Basir Salangi welcomes the Taliban in his office in second day of the ceasefire and Eid. #AFG pic.twitter.com/voSQKTjrmm

— Shakib Mahmud (@ShakibMah) June 16, 2018

• The Logar governor and Taleban shadow governor offered prayers together

#Afghan governor for #Logar province in joined by his rival #Taliban's shadow governor and together they offedr their #Eid prayers. Others who were also in attendance told #VOA, Taliban governor was unarmed when he entered the mosque. #Afghanistan #Ceasefire #peace pic.twitter.com/qflapUzPHb

— VOA DEEWA (@voadeewa) June 15, 2018

• The Herat provincial police chief met local commanders­
• The Logar provincial police chief, Muhammad Abdali, met commanders
• The provincial chiefs of police and NDS in Uruzgan marched towards Taleban positions to invite them to join Eid celebrations
• A “big meeting” of officials with Taleban in Jalalabad took place at the governor’s office

#Taliban commanders in #Nangarhar governor house, in a big gathering with local officilas and the people to support #ceasefire pic.twitter.com/pZiywceMqu

— Pajhwok Afghan News (@pajhwok) June 17, 2018

• “High-ranking Taleban” met officials in the Zabul governor’s office

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د ولس په اراده د ولس په څنګ کې، له درې ورځني اوربند څخه په استفادې.د زابل ولايتي شورا رئيس وينا د شاجوی په شوبار کې، کليوالو او طالب وسلوالو ته.

Posted by ‎سردار ولی سرحدی‎ on Sunday, June 17, 2018

 

The mingling was spontaneous and uncontrolled, the result, a sort of benign chaos. There was a lot of risk in this. Taleban fighters, for example, did not all leave their arms when they crossed the ‘frontlines’ into government-controlled areas, but ANSF allowed them through anyway. It seems the fighters did not abuse that trust (although fears have been voiced that the Taleban may have pre-positioned armed fighters for after the Eid – more on which below).

Reports from both media and social media were overwhelmingly positive, although there may be some reporting bias here, that fraternisation was reported, but its absence in other places was not. Uneasiness from some in the general population was also reported, although less prominently than the euphoria (see press reporting here and here). Amrullah Saleh, claiming to represent a large swathe of the population, also tweeted his bewilderment at events: “The anti Taliban constituency which provide the bulk of troops to ANDSF [Afghan National Defence and Security Forces] feel betrayed, confused & sold out.”

Women were noticeable by their absence. Where they were publicly involved, it was noted: young activist Muqadasa Ahmadzai going to a Taleban-controlled area of Nangrahar to demand they extend the ceasefire, women in Helmand demonstrating and also demanding the Taleban extend the ceasefire and the BBC’s Malaeka in Kabul going to “challenge” Taleban entering the city on their policy of excluding women from public life.

The ceasefire was broken by only two attacks, both in Jalalabad, and the first, at least, claimed by the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP). On the second day of Eid, 16 June, a suicide bomber blew himself up in the middle of a crowd of Taleban, ANSF and civilians in Rodat district in Nangrahar province. The bomber killed 36 people and wounded many more. On the third day of Eid, a bomb planted near the governor’s office in Jalalabad where people waited for the end of a meeting of government officials and Taleban, killed at least 18 and injured 45, according to the local health department.

The Rodat bombing on the second day of Eid was the official reason given by the Taleban leadership for ordering their fighters to “remain in their trenches [sic] and areas of control and to not venture into enemy controlled areas or cities even briefly.” A statement said they wanted to remove the opportunity for “the enemy” (unspecified) to misuse the ceasefire to harm the Taleban and other Afghans and so were ordering their fighters to stop “participating in… crowds and gatherings.” Ordering Taleban to return to their side of frontlines, however, actually looked like an attempt to stop fighters fraternising with the enemy (more on this below).

The leadership warned it would deal “rigorously” with “cases of violation.” 1TV reported the leadership was angry with Taleban who had taken selfies with ANSF. Given that Taleban were killed in the second bombing in Jalalabad and mingling continued to be reported on day 3 of Eid, some fighters did violate the leadership’s order.

Ghani calls for an extension of the truce, the Taleban go back to fighting

On 16 June, President Ghani announced a unilateral extension of the ceasefire until 20 June and called on the Taleban to do the same. In a series of tweets (2) and a televised address, he said it could be a time when wounded Taleban could seek treatment and family members visit Taleban prisoners. He also, again, offered “comprehensive negotiations” saying that Kabul was ready to discuss an issue of central importance to the Taleban – the presence of foreign forces. This suggestion first came in the final declaration of the February 2018 Kabul Process 2 meeting (AAN analysis here). Ghani also said “issues of mutual concern with neighboring countries” would also be up for discussion – possibly intended to allay the worries of the Taleban’s backers in Islamabad.

The Taleban refused his offer, saying “normal operations” would resume on 18 June. Insisting that their ceasefire had not been a “response to the ceasefire of the Kabul regime,” they said it had proved the cohesiveness of their command, while the welcome given to their fighters “by the people proves that the demands of the Islamic Emirate and the nation are identical – all want the withdrawal of foreign invaders and establishment of an Islamic government.” It called on the US to sit and negotiate with the Taleban and to withdraw its forces, a demand repeated from Taleban leader Hebatullah’s Eid message on 12 June.

The fact that the Taleban only issued a statement saying operations would resume very late on the last day of Eid suggests the decision had not been straightforward. Indeed, The Guardian reported that discussions had been difficult:

According to insiders, the leadership was stunned by the jubilant scenes in city centres. The hardline deputy leader and son of Mullah Omar, Mullah Yaqoob, was particularly dismayed. In an audio message obtained by the Guardian, he said there had been “no permission for mixing with Afghan forces”, which he said “totally disobeyed the terms of the ceasefire”.

One senior Taliban member said the leadership, recognising the pressure for peace within the group’s ranks, was considering a 10-day ceasefire over the next Eid festival, in September. However, he said there was disappointment that Ghani had not been more specific on the subject of US troop withdrawal. “Ghani should have created a timeline,” he said. “That might have created attraction to extend the ceasefire.”

On 18 June, the Taleban did, bloodily, resume, their operations, with the shooting of Subhanullah Khetab, acting governor of Ghanikhel district in Nangrahar, as he drove to his office. According to government officials, there were Taleban attacks in nine provinces, including Nangarhar, Kunar and Laghman in the east and in Helmand and Kandahar in the south, with 12 soldiers killed (media report here).

The end of the ceasefire also coincided with the arrival of the Helmandi peace marchers into the Afghan capital, boosted along the way by supporters. This spontaneous, grassroots, non-aligned initiative is demanding that both sides stop fighting, enter talks, draw up a timeline for the withdrawal of foreign troops and devise a system “acceptable to all sides” (see AAN reporting here). The sight of the men walking 700 kilometres in 40 degrees of heat while abstaining from water during the Ramadan fast, but supported by villagers all along the way, was intended to demonstrate, the marchers said, ordinary Afghans’ “thirst for peace.” It has also helped galvanise popular, pro-peace sentiments in the county.

What does the ceasefire mean?

Calling a unilateral ceasefire was a gamble by Ashraf Ghani that, so far, appears to have paid off. It forced the Taleban first into calling their own ceasefire and then into embracing a stance that publically favours war over talks – after peace was shown to have popular and widespread appeal, including among some of their own fighters.

For the Taleban, who feel they are doing well in the war, taking territory and threatening the government in a number of provinces (see AAN reporting here, here, here and here), the attraction of fighting on is strong. Despite the extreme unlikelihood of anyone winning the war militarily, the leadership may believe they can improve the movement’s relative position. Nevertheless, their insistence on continuing to fight has now cast them strongly as the ‘pro-war party’ and this may be politically damaging for them.

What happened over Eid was deeply subversive, politically and militarily dangerous to any party wanting to prolong the conflict. It demonstrated that a ceasefire, held to completely by both sides, is possible. It revealed a strong peace camp among Afghans that crosses frontlines, and it opened up the imaginative space for Afghans to see what a future without violence could look like. Perhaps most significantly, it allowed human contact between enemies. After the mass fraternisation, it may be more difficult for Afghan combatants to think of killing each other. After praying with your fellow Afghan, it may be trickier to cling on to the view that he is just a puppet of the kufar or of the ISI.

This works both ways of course, but it seems particularly dangerous for the Taleban, given that they have ended the truce unilaterally. Moreover, this is a movement that relies on discipline, obedience and a belief in the rightness of the armed struggle, that members are  fighting a jihad. After the three-day holiday truce, some Taleban may be left wondering why it has become religiously justified to start killing again. Those who came into the cities will have found them not to be the cesspits of decadence and Westernisation they had been told they were, but to be populated by people celebrating Eid as they do (see here).

There has already been some disobedience in the ranks, with not all Taleban following orders and going back to the ‘trenches’ on the third day of Eid. Anecdotally, not all were pleased at being ordered to fight again after the end of the holiday – see statements in the annex. The Guardian quoted one fighter, 22-year old Muhammadullah, saying:

“I and thousands of Afghan Taliban definitely want the ceasefire extended,” …“I went to the city and the mosques were full of people, I did not notice anything against the Islamic rules. After the sweet three days of peace, going back to bloodshed looks strange. How can you even compare peace with war?”

One gathering of Taleban was also reported on 18 June in Paktika’s Urgun district, an area under Haqqani network control where fighters called on their leadership to extend the ceasefire. It is difficult to think of a precedent for this sort of behaviour.

A day after end of Taliban's 3-day ceasefire, some members of the group gather in #Paktika's Urgun district appealing for extension of ceasefire pic.twitter.com/RbKYY31Tsv

— 1TVNewsAF (@1TVNewsAF) June 18, 2018

For any Taleban who have privately pondered the rightness of this war, but (correctly) judged it too dangerous to voice their concerns, it may now be easier to do so. There have been discussions about entering negotiations at the leadership level before, but in recent years, it has been a taboo subject in the ranks. The unsayable may just have become sayable – that negotiations and peace could be both possible and desirable. The mass fraternisation seen over Eid may prove more dangerous to the Taleban’s cause than the deployment of any number of American or Afghan soldiers.

The truce has been very much an Afghan affair, despite the US also honouring it. Where Taleban were quoted in news reports, they often insisted their fight would go on until foreign forces left. Their anti-foreign rhetoric was often reported as going down well with local civilians – and presumably some members of the ANSF (see the annex for details); this might be a sentiment that Afghans could coalesce around.

The old dilemma of who talks to whom, that the Taleban insist they will only speak to the US, while both Kabul and Washington saying the Taleban must negotiate with the Afghan government, remains. Yet it could be cut through with sensitive US diplomacy. This appears to be the conclusion, for example, of the former US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the State Department, Laurel Miller (see here).

Shifts in positions do seem to be occurring. Ghani has said (again) that his government is willing to discuss the presence of foreign forces. There were also hints in US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo’s statement of the possibility both of US-Taleban and Afghan-Afghan dialogue. He cited Ghani as saying that “peace talks by necessity would include a discussion of the role of international actors and forces” and that the US was “prepared to support, facilitate, and participate in these discussions.” He also said:

We have seen pictures of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan soldiers and police with Taliban fighters offering prayers for Eid side by side.  If Afghans can pray together, their leaders can talk together and resolve their differences.

Agreeing to begin peace talks is an expression of determination to create a unified Afghanistan in which all its citizens can live in peace and dignity.  The United States stands ready to work with the Afghan government, the Taliban, and all the people of Afghanistan to reach a peace agreement and political settlement that brings a permanent end to this war.

What happens next is less predictable. Letting genies out of bottles opens up the possibility of many different unexpected consequences. Much depends on how convinced Taleban fighters remain of the rightness of their armed struggle and whether dissidents remain obedient to the leadership. There also remains a risk that Ghani’s move has allowed the Taleban leadership to pre-position armed fighters in the cities. If matters do go badly, opponents of Ghani’s unilateral peace policy will be strengthened in their belief that it is futile to talk to the Taleban.

If Afghanistan is lucky, the three day ceasefire will have changed the dynamics of the conflict. The various meetings between Taleban and government officials may yet yield local reductions in violence. Those within the Taleban ranks who favour trying to negotiate an end to the conflict may be strengthened. The popular support and pressure for peace so publicly demonstrated in the last few days may also have given a momentum for talks – between Taleban, government and Washington, in various combinations – to actually begin.

 

Edited by Thomas Ruttig

Annex: Reports of Fraternisation

The news agency reports compiled here should be reliable, but tweets may not be. We include them as we want to give readers a taste of what was reported round the country. In the tweets, we have kept the original (mis-spellings and only corrected names where necessary). 

Kunduz

16 June: An unknown number of Taleban entered Kunduz city and were warmly welcomed by people gathered on the streets. Tolonews reported Taleban saying they wanted the foreign troops to leave the country and they would only end their war with Afghan government forces once this has happened. Civilians told Tolo they were happy with the joint celebration of Eid.

Tolo also mentions ANSF here. AP quoted a local resident speaking of nearly 2,000 Taliban seen celebrating in the city, many of them with family and friends.

16 June: Hamid Saifi, a soldier scholar & commander of an #ANA battalion in [Dasht-e] Archi district in #Kunduz, meets the #Taliban commander who he has fought with & lost several men under his command in fierce battles in the last two years. #CeaseFire

17 June: Another CBM [Confidence Building Measure], two cricket teams in Dasht-[e] Archi district of #Kunduz provinceplayed a friendly match. Wonderfully, and surprisingly, one team came from the government and the other from the Taliban controlled areas. Strange people! Cricket diplomacy @ACBofficials @rashidkhan_19

Another CBM, two cricket teams in Dasht-I-Archi district of #Kunduz province played a friendly match. Wonderfully, and surprisingly, one team came from the government and the other from the Taliban controlled areas.
Strange people! Cricket diplomacy @ACBofficials @rashidkhan_19 pic.twitter.com/lzAxu8I11O

— Zeerak (@zeerakyousofi) June 17, 2018

Takhar

Abdul Rahman Aqtash, chief of police of Takhar province and some other local authorities welcomed Taleban in Chawk-e Taloqan city of Takhar. Security forces, Taleban and local authorities chanted the slogan “Let us take part in reconstruction of our country.” and Taloqan residents appreciated that. Both sides invited each other for peace and reconciliation and said it is the ceasefire that paves the way for peace.

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تازه:گروه طالبان را در چوک شهر تالقان مرکز ولایت تخار؛ عبدالرحمن آقتاش فرمانده پولیس و شماری از مقام‌های محلی پذیرایی…

Posted by ‎Habib Najafizada – حبیب نجفی زاده‎ on Sunday, June 17, 2018

 

Baghlan

15 June: Taleban went to Pul-e Khumri citywith their white flag and said “Happy Eid “ to the people and security forces.

16 June: Taleban stood under pictures of Ahmad Shah Massud and Dr Abdullah in the main square of Pul-e Khumri

16 June: Asadullah Shabaz, head of the provincial council, told AP unarmed Taliban joined in prayers at a local mosque.“We are all just so tired of war,” he said.

Badghis

16 June: Governor Abdul Ghafur Malekzai walked to the roundabout of Qala-ye Nawand celebrated Eid and ceasefire with Taleban. Malekzai asked them to enjoy the ceasefire and join the peace process. They prayed together in Qala-ye Naw mosque and kept their fingers crossed for permanent peace.

Provincial governor of Badghis is taking selfie with Taliban fighters #Ceasefire #Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/yIfQlhU281

— HBABUR (@Humayoonbabur) June 16, 2018

Herat  

16 June: Police Chief of Herat Meet Taliban Local Commanders

See also here.

Kabul

15 June: Tolo News journalist Tamim Hamid visited areas under government as well as Taliban’s control in Maidan Wardak. Mohammad Naeem Entiqam, a Taliban commander, accompanied the Tolo team to Tangi area in Sayedabad district (…)Taliban members were seen in the only market in Tangi on the same day.

16 June: Tolo News reports dozens of Taliban members on Saturday came to Kabul city from Maidan Wardak and Logar provinces and its journalists met with them and people in parts of the city, reporting the atmosphere was jovial. Kabul police said Taliban members handed in their weapons and ammunition belts before entering the city. However, footage shows that in a few parts of the city, Taliban were carrying their weapons. In Kabul’s Koti Sangi area security forces however arrested a Taliban member who was carrying a weapon.

16 June: Hashmat Stanikzai, advisor to the 101 Asmai Zone police headquarters, told Pajhwok that a number of government opponents were allowed to enter Kabul through the Arghundi gate in Paghman district. Video clips on social media show a number of militants with white flags in their hands stand together with Afghan security forces on Kota Sangi bridge in Mirwais Maidan area of Kabul (see here).

16 June: Interior Minister Wais Barmak, driving back into Kabul from Maidan Wardak, stopped in Pul-e Kampani to talk to Taleban who had come into the city (see here and also here).

16 June: BBC Persian also published pictures showing unarmed Taleban militants carrying white Taleban flags riding motorcycles in Kabul city, a group of young men sitting on top of a bus, carrying government and Taleban flags in the Arghandeh area of Kabul.

17 June: MP Nader Khan Katawazai from Paktika province posted photographs of himself with a Taleban commander in Kabul City.

17 June: Reuters relayed a story doing the rounds on social media that one Taleb, after hugging Kabul residents, asked for directions to Baharistan, to the west of Kabul. “I have heard there is very good ice cream there”.

17 June: Civil society activists hold up red cards to protest the presence of armed Taliban in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, June 17, 2018.

Their slogans read (in Persian), “We forgive, but never forget, No to secret peace talks, No to Taliban’s military presence in Kabul.”

Civil society activists hold up red cards to protest the presence of armed Taliban in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, June 17, 2018.Persian writing reads, "We forgive, but never forget, No to secret peace talks,No to Taliban's military presence in Kabul."(AP Photos/Massoud Hossaini pic.twitter.com/9CfgsGeyvf

— Massoud Hossaini (@Massoud151) June 17, 2018

(AP Photos/Massoud Hossaini)

Maidan Wardak

16 June: Residents, security forces and Taleban celebrated Eid together, reported Tolo News. See also pictures from BBC Persian

Ghazni

 17 June: Dozens of Taleban used the ceasefire to visit their families in Ghazni city, reported Sana News Agency. It also reported that the Ghazni Ulama Council had held a press conference, welcoming the ceasefire and demanding peace. They issued a statement saying there was no Islamic justification to continue the conflict.

Logar

15 June: Afghan soldiers test cease-fire with visit to Taliban strongholds, photo shows armed Taleban watching the ANSF convoy.

15 June: Taliban walked freely through the bazaar in the capital of Logar province.

15 June: Franz J Marty* @franzjmarty (an occasional guest author with AAN. See here and here) tweeted:

Yesterday, on Eid (15th of June), first day of #Taliban #ceasefire I witnessed how armed local Taliban gathered on the main road just outside #PuliAlam,the capital of #Logar, talking, hugging and laughing with government forces#ANDSF. #Afghanistan

Yesterday, on Eid (15th of June), first day of #Taliban #ceasefire I witnessed how armed local Taliban gathered on the main road just outside #PuliAlam, the capital of #Logar, talking, hugging and laughing with government forces #ANDSF. #Afghanistan

— Franz J. Marty (@franzjmarty) June 16, 2018

Afterwards, local elders and at least one purported local #Taliban commander peacefully confered with #AfghanNationalArmy in brigade base near #PuliAlam #Logar. No concrete results and unclear, whether it will lead somewhere, but shows what might be possible. #Afghanistan.

Afterwards, local elders and at least one purported local #Taliban commander peacefully confered with #AfghanNationalArmy in brigade base near #PuliAlam #Logar. No concrete results and unclear, whether it will lead somewhere, but shows what might be possible. #Afghanistan

— Franz J. Marty (@franzjmarty) June 16, 2018

Pictures from the #Eid #ceasefire in #PuliAlam #Logar #Afghanistan that I myself took yesterday (16th of June 2018). For more details see description on Instagram:

Afghans celebrating an unprecedented nation-wide #ceasefire in #PuliAlam, the capital of #Logar province, just south of Kabul, #Afghanistan, waving the Afghan national #flag and the white #Taliban flag, many from a #MRAP and a #HMMWV driven by soldiers of the #AfghanNationalArmy #ANA (16th of June 2018). Apart from two very bloody attacks in the eastern province of Nangarhar claimed by the local branch of the self-declared Islamic State, the ceasefire held during three days (15th to 17th of June 2018) over the religious holiday of #Eid which marks the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. The ceasefire lead to before unimaginable scenes of Taliban meeting up with Afghan government forces, hugging them and talking and laughing with them. However, it remains to be seen, whether and what lasting impact these peaceful scenes will have – while the Afghan government intends to extend the ceasefire, the Taliban announced that their ceasefire will end as planned on 17th of June 2018. #conflict #peace #reconciliation #insurgency #reporting #photoreportage #photojournalism #photodocumentary #dangerousplaces

A post shared by Franz J. Marty (@franzjmarty) on Jun 17, 2018 at 7:33am PDT

Pictures from the #Eid #ceasefire in #PuliAlam #Logar #Afghanistan that I myself took yesterday (16th of June 2018). For more details see description on Instagram https://t.co/jvvSFaYK6q. pic.twitter.com/MnzJRN0is9

— Franz J. Marty (@franzjmarty) June 17, 2018

16 June: Chief of Police Muhammad Abdali said: “I, myself, met with six Taleban’s militants in the city. They were happy that were able to enter the city and to visit their families.” (reported by Deutsche Welle)

16 June: AP reported dozens of Taliban on motorcycles roaring through the provincial capital of Pul-e-Alam, some of the vehicles festooned with the Afghan flag. According to provincial police spokesman Shahpur Ahmadzai they were unarmed. Abdullah Faizani, a Taliban fighter from Logar’s Baraki district, said it had been seven years since he has been to the provincial capital.

15 June: Voice of America @voadeewatweeted:

#Afghan Governor for #Logar province in joined by his rival #Taliban’s shadow governor and together they offered their #Eid prayers. Others who were also in attendance told #VOA, Taliban governor was unarmed when he entered the mosque. #Afghanistan #Ceasefire #peace

#Afghan governor for #Logar province in joined by his rival #Taliban's shadow governor and together they offedr their #Eid prayers. Others who were also in attendance told #VOA, Taliban governor was unarmed when he entered the mosque. #Afghanistan #Ceasefire #peace pic.twitter.com/qflapUzPHb

— VOA DEEWA (@voadeewa) June 15, 2018

Rare pictures, #Taliban fighters with #Afghan security forces together on first day of Eid as it is #ceasefire day. The moterbike picture taken by @Haqmal in #Logar PoliAlam seems #Taliban fighters have city tour with no clash from both side. #Afghanistan #Peace

Rare pictures, #Taliban fighters with #Afghan security forces together on first day of Eid as it is #ceasefire day. The moterbike picture taken by @Haqmal in #Logar PoliAlam seems #Taliban fighters have city tour with no clash from both side. #Afghanistan #Peace pic.twitter.com/mn2EyR6cex

— Rahim Gul Sarwan (@rgsarwan) June 15, 2018

Wardak

16 June: According to member of the provincial council, Ahmad Jafari, ANSF members and Taleban prayed together on the first day of Eid in Jalrez district (reported by Deutsche Welle).

Khost

 17 June: HBABUR‏ @Humayoonbabur

Massive gathering in Khost province #Afghanistan due to supports ceasefire with Taliban.

Massive gathering in Khost province #Afghanistan due to supports ceasefire with Taliban. pic.twitter.com/gvCLHAvj0P

— HBABUR (@Humayoonbabur) June 17, 2018

 

Paktia

16 June: Khalid khi‏ @khalid_pk

Afghan citizen makes emotional appeal to Taliban to stop fighting, make peace since both sides of lost many lives, in Paktiaas the country witnesses 2nd day of Eid and ceasefire

Afghan citizen makes emotional appeal to Taliban to stop fighting, make peace since both sides of lost many lives, in Paktia as the country witnesses 2nd day of Eid and ceasefire pic.twitter.com/GPLXhrchwe

— Khalid khi (@khalid_pk) June 17, 2018

17 June: Haqmal Masoodzai‏ @HaqmalMasoodzai

#Ceasfire Taliban, Afghan securuty forces and people are celibrating Eid togather in Gardez city, Paktia Province. Eid 2nd day.

#Ceasfire
Taliban, Afghan securuty forces and people are celibrating Eid togather in Gardez city, Paktia Province.
Eid 2nd day@bbcafghanistan @voadeewa @VOANews @a_siab @BasirAtiqzai @rashidkhan_19 @LaghmanSpoksman @afgexecutive @SecShulkin pic.twitter.com/5WXL4bEnsl

— Haqmal Masoodzai (@HaqmalMasoodzai) June 17, 2018

Paktika

15 June: It is joyful when you look #ANSF and #Taliban rally to celebrate Eid-ul-fitr jointly in #Paktika province #Afghanistan #peace #Love #Ceasefire.

It is joyful when you look #ANSF and #Taliban rally to celebrate Eid-ul-fitr jointly in #Paktika province #Afghanistan #peace #Love #Ceasefire. pic.twitter.com/5Xgw9lVrbg

— HBABUR (@Humayoonbabur) June 15, 2018

18 June: 1TVNewsAF‏Verified account @1TVNewsAFMore

A day after end of Taliban’s 3-day ceasefire, some members of the group gather in #Paktika’s Urgun district appealing for extension of ceasefire

A day after end of Taliban's 3-day ceasefire, some members of the group gather in #Paktika's Urgun district appealing for extension of ceasefire pic.twitter.com/RbKYY31Tsv

— 1TVNewsAF (@1TVNewsAF) June 18, 2018

Uruzgan

17 June: Thousands of Uruzgan civilians and government officials, including the provincial chief of police and NDS director marched towards Taleban’s positions and requested them to join them for peace on the third day of Eid (17 June) (Report from Radio Azadi).

Kandahar

18 June: Radio Azadi reported civilians, along with Afghan soldiers and Taleban celebrating Eid together in Panjwai and Maiwand districts of Kandahar. It also reported dozens of Taleban coming from Daman and Arghandab district to Kandahar city to celebrate Eid. Former governor and currently Minister for Tribes and Border Affairs Gul Agha Shairzai, and former governor Zabul province, Bismillah Afghanmal, said on behalf of worshipers in the Kherqa mosque that the government should invite Taleban to observe a permanent ceasefire and come back to their homes safely.

Helmand

15 June: The Afghan Herald‏ @theafghanherald #Afghanceasefire More photos from Shahjoi, Helmand where both #Taliban and Afghan Security forces celebrated Eid together.

#Afghanceasefire
More photos from Shahjoi, Helmand where both #Taliban and Afghan Security forces celebrated Eid together. pic.twitter.com/vlXkrLdb6l

— The Afghan Herald (@theafghanherald) June 15, 2018

17 June: Tolo News reported women welcoming Taleban for the ceasefire and appealing for its extension.

Zabul 

16 June: Zabul provincial council members said 700 Taliban members on Saturday arrived in Qalat city, the provincial capital, and celebrated Eid along with the security forces and the residents, greeted and hugged them and took selfies with each other.

16 June:  The Deputy Chief of Police told BBC Persian that around 500 Taleban had come to Shahjoy district centre to celebrate Eid with locals, who, he said were very excited. This was confirmed to the BBC by a Taleban commander.

17 June: Ata Jan Haqbayan, head of Zabul provincial Assembly met Taleban in the Shibar area of Shahjoy district. He said he had invited some of the Taleban from Shinkai and Arghandab  districts to his home in Qalat city.

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د ولس په اراده د ولس په څنګ کې، له درې ورځني اوربند څخه په استفادې.د زابل ولايتي شورا رئيس وينا د شاجوی په شوبار کې، کليوالو او طالب وسلوالو ته.

Posted by ‎سردار ولی سرحدی‎ on Sunday, June 17, 2018

17 June: Sources from Zabultold AAN that government officials met Mullah Qayum, Mullah Salim and Qari Saifullah in the governor’s house. The source said they were “high-ranking Taleban,” but did not know their exact positions. but the source did not know their exact role among Taleban. Video here.

Farah

 16 June: Shakib Mahmud‏ @ShakibMah

#Farah Governor Basir Salangi welcomes the Taliban in his office in second day of the ceasefire and Eid. #AFG and had lunch together with them.

#Farah governor Basir Salangi welcomes the Taliban in his office in second day of the ceasefire and Eid. #AFG pic.twitter.com/voSQKTjrmm

— Shakib Mahmud (@ShakibMah) June 16, 2018

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بصير سالنگى والى فراه از طالبان در دفتر كارش پذيرايى كرده و غذاى چاشت را با آنها در يك سفره صرف كرده است.

Posted by Bashir Ahmad Qasani on Saturday, June 16, 2018

16 June: Atta Nasib‏ @NasibAtta Atta Nasib Retweeted Shakib Mahmud

Few weeks ago Farah was ransacked by Taliban, and now they’re hugging it out with the governor. Remarkable turnaround, truly emotional what few days of peace mean to Afghans.

Few weeks ago Farah was ransacked by Taliban, and now they're hugging it out with the governor. Remarkable turnaround, truly emotional what few days of peace mean to Afghans. https://t.co/ZXf2Fi5xOZ

— Atta Nasib (@NasibAtta) June 16, 2018

Faryab  

16 June: Following the ceasefire between the government and Taleban, Afghan soldiers and Taleban visited and hugged each other in Faryab. 

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پیام طالبان و پیام نظام الدین قیصاری نماینده خاص جنرال در ولایت فاریاب به ملت.

Posted by ‎M-Akbar Rahimi "محمد اکبر " رحیمی‎ on Saturday, June 16, 2018

Nangarhar

15 June: Government employees, security forces and Taliban member performed the Eid-al-Fitr prayers together at a mosque in Bati Kot district in the eastern Nangarhar province.  Addressing the people at the mosque, a Taliban commander said they will not create any hurdle for government’s development and reconstruction projects in the district. “We obey our leader. During the three-day ceasefire, we will not disobey his order,” Qari Zarif, the Taliban’s shadow district governor for Bati Kot, said. “The Islamic Emirate and the Afghan government should extend the ceasefire,” Abdul Basir, a Taliban fighter, told Tolo News.

16 June: Tolo News reports a large number of Taliban arrived in Jalalabad city, the provincial capital, and in the district centres and met with their relatives and security forces. It quotes Taliban as saying they want the temporary ceasefire to become permanent.

 16 June: Idrees Stanikzai‏ @Stanikzaiii

Zarqavi is a #Talib commander who has seen his home town Nangarhar after 9 years. He says haven’t slept since last night because of so much happiness. He said that #[K]amaDistrict has the best Ice Cream. #AfghanPeaceMarch

Zarqavi is a #Talib commander who has seen his home town Nangarhar after 9 years. He says haven’t slept since last night because of so much happiness. He said that #CamaDistrict has the best IceCream.#AfghanPeaceMarch pic.twitter.com/QBtRYmZzsf

— Idrees Stanikzai (@Stanikzaiii) June 16, 2018

16 June: Young #women activist went to remote area under #Taliban control in Nangarharprovince. Demanded extension of #Ceasefire

Young #women activist went to remote area under #Taliban control in Nangarhar province. Demanded extension of #Ceasefire https://t.co/DmjrXAASId

— Syed Anwar (@Sayed_Anwer) June 17, 2018

@Sayed_Anwer, re-tweeting Muqadasa Ahmadzai in Pashto

نن د اختر دوهمه ورځ له ښاره لرې له یو شمېر کونډو/یتیمانو او قومي سپین ګیرو سره د طالبانو د ولکې لاندې سیمې ته ورغلې وو او د دوی د نوموړې ولسوالۍ له مسولینو سره مو ولیدل.
موخه/او غوښتنې
د اوربند په پار مننه ترې ملاتړ او ستاینه
او د لا غځېدو غوښتنه#KoorCulturalAssociation pic.twitter.com/m1hwPLcJdv

— Muqadasa Ahmadzai (@MuqadasaAhmadz2) June 16, 2018

 

16 June:Pajhwok tweeted

#Talibancommanders in #Nangarhar Governor house, in a big gathering with local officilas and the people to support #ceasefire

#Taliban commanders in #Nangarhar governor house, in a big gathering with local officilas and the people to support #ceasefire pic.twitter.com/pZiywceMqu

— Pajhwok Afghan News (@pajhwok) June 17, 2018

 

16 June: Female parliment candidate from #Nangarhar province along with Taliban during #Eid #ceasefire#ceasefireAfghanistan.

Female parliment candidate from #Nangarhar province along with Taliban during #Eid #ceasefire #ceasefireAfghanistan pic.twitter.com/eRzIAR4zaH

— Rahim لغماني (@RahimLaghmani) June 17, 2018

16 June: Photo from BBC Persian of a mixed gathering in Jalalabad.

Laghman 

Dozens of Taleban members gathered at a mosque in Pul-e-Alam city, the provincial capital, and celebrated Eid. 

Unknown location

16 June HBABUR‏ @Humayoonbabur Watch a video it’s very funny! … later on… a Talib fighter tells : Long live! Mullah Ashraf Ghani…!!!

Watch a video it's very funny! … later on… a Talib fighter tells : Long live! Mullah Ashraf Ghani…!!! pic.twitter.com/kZp1CR9mLx

— HBABUR (@Humayoonbabur) June 16, 2018

 

Punishment for Taleban members  

18 June: Taleban to punish the members who took selfies with people.

18 June: A day after end of Taliban’s 3-day ceasefire, some members of the group gather in #Paktika’s Urgun district appealing for extension of ceasefire.

A day after end of Taliban's 3-day ceasefire, some members of the group gather in #Paktika's Urgun district appealing for extension of ceasefire pic.twitter.com/RbKYY31Tsv

— 1TVNewsAF (@1TVNewsAF) June 18, 2018

 

 

(1) Not everyone on the government’s side (or maybe more accurately, the anti-Taleban side) was happy with the ceasefire. Most vocally antagonistic was the former NDS director and Shura-ye Nizar stalwart Amrullah Saleh who tweeted after it was announced about the “attitude of treacherous compromise in the political constituency of NUG [National Unity Government], entrenchment of fifth column culture & confusion within the ANDSF [Afghan National Defence and Security Forces” and warned that, “Appeasement never brings peace.” When the Taleban announced their ceasefire, he predicted that if they abided by it, it would be their first humanitarian action ever.

(2) Ghani’s tweets in English on 16 June in full:

Few days ago when we were preparing for ceasefire many were skeptical that Taliban will not comply, and also how will it be put into practice? But those doubts were removed once ceasefire began and assumptions made by many analysts and politician were proven wrong.

We’re ready for comprehensive negotiations, all those issues and demands that have been put-forth we are ready to discuss them at the peace talks. The Afghan government is ready to discuss issues of mutual concern with neighboring countries, and presence of foreign forces.

Peace is an urgent need and as it turned out that in the last 24 hours there was a consensus between the Afghan government and the Taliban on peace, it proved that we are all for peace. Fortunately, there’s also consensus among the international community on peace in Afghanistan. 

A good example of this consensus is the joint Eid prayers performed by the Taliban and government employees in different mosques and Eidgahs. 

Both sides sang about peace and harmony, and in Eid the environment during the Eid sermons was different than before, all the religious scholars and Imams spoke about the value, significance and importance of peace in Islam.

To respect the public’s wishes and to support their demands about peace, I am ordering the security and defense forces to extend the ceasefire from the fourth day of Eid. We will soon share the details of the proposed ceasefire with the nation.

We also request the Afghan Taliban to extend their ceasefire. During the ceasefire, we will provide medical assistance to the wounded Taliban, and will provide them any humanitarian assistance if needed. Taliban prisoners will also be allowed to contact and see their families. 

The new Tu-214ON has carried out a series of test flights in southwest Russia, close to the border with Ukraine. Tupolev is continuing the testing of the new Tu-214ON (Otkrytoye Niebo – Open Skies), a highly modified Tu-214 airliner equipped with advanced photo and electronic sensors to peform Open Skies Treaty surveillance missions. The Treaty […]

Here are a couple of cool clips filmed from a privileged point of view. On Jun. 17, Chippewa Valley Regional Airport in Eau Claire, WI hosted an airshow that included the display of the Air Combat Command’s F-16 Viper Demo Team. Piloted by Maj. John “Rain” Waters, an operational F-16 pilot assigned to the 20th […]

Americas

• The Navy is awarding an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract to Boeing. The $1.5 billion contract provides for the production of configuration sets and associated services in support of the life cycle upgrades of F/A-18A/B, C/D, E/F and EA-18G aircraft in support of the Navy and foreign military sales customers. The different versions of Super Hornets fighter aircraft are the backbone of naval aviation. They fulfill strike roles and can conduct tactical refueling sorties. Additionally, the EA-18G Growler has new electronics, and mounts special electronic warfare pods on the aircraft’s underwing instead of its 20mm canon. Boeing’s upgrade program is based on the Super Hornet Roadmap centered around 3 areas: doubling down on electronic advances, trying to improve flight performance in strike or air superiority roles, and improving the design’s radar signature. This contract combines purchases for the Navy ($1,18 billion) and various FMS customers ($333.8 million). Work will be performed in St. Louis, Missouri and China Lake, California, and is expected to be completed in June 2023.

• The US Army is tapping BAE Systems Land & Armaments in support of its Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs). The $347 million fixed-price-incentive-fee contract sees for the production of up to 473 Bradley M2A4 and M7A4 vehicles, and for the procurement of authorized stockage list spares, and additional packages for legacy component repair. Introduced in the 1980s during the Reagan defense build-up, the Bradleys were a departure from the usual mold of lightly armed Armored Personnel Carriers. During Desert Storm the vehicles combination of firepower, mobility, and protection made them a valuable asset. The Bradleys’ high level of protection against anti-tank rockets has proven to be a significant plus, and operational readiness has reportedly exceeded 94%, during urban and cross-country missions that have covered more than 8 million miles. Work will be performed in York, Pennsylvania, with an estimated completion date of June 2019.

• The Air Force is contracting General Atomics – Aeronautical Systems in support of its MQ-9 Reaper platform. The contract modification provides for the product ionization of the Lynx Block 20A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) configuration and is valued at $22 million. The new Lynx SAR is set to replace the current configuration of the system on the future MQ-9 Block 5 remotely piloted aircraft. The Reaper packs the same surveillance gear as the famous Predator but is more of a hunter-killer design. The Lynx radar is designed to meet the onboard challenges of the Remotely Piloted Aircraft systems environment, the it consumes minimal Size, Weight, and Power (SWAP) while delivering precision air-to-surface targeting accuracy and superb wide-area search capabilities. Lynx includes two spotlight and two stripmap SAR modes. Spotlight mode produces high-resolution imagery on a defined point. Stripmap mode mosaics multiple spot SAR images together to form one large image. Work will be performed in Poway, California, and is expected to be complete by June 2020.

Middle East & Africa

• The Israeli defense manufacturer BlueBird Aero Systems is currently promoting the newly developed cargo variant of its ThunderB UAV. The compact UAV is designed to offer long endurance and extended range capabilities similar to those offered by larger unmanned aircraft weighing 440 lb. The ThunderB is a high-wing UAV integrating a V-shaped tail and housing a gimballed payload unit in the forward section of its fuselage. The UAV lacks a landing gear as it is recovered using a parachute system. The old variant was able to carry up to 7.7 lb. of payload and was designed for ISTAR, SAR and commercial missions. According to Jane’s, the new variant can carry a cargo payload of up to 8.8 lb. in two capsules that can be fitted under the platform’s wings Once transported to its destination, the cargo is then dropped using an electro-mechanical mechanism, landing with a high degree of accuracy at the intended drop site. The cargo capsules can also be fitted with a parachute to prevent the payload from being damaged.

• South African defense contractor Milkor will soon unveil its prototypes of the MN Centurion high-speed interceptor craft and MA 380 unmanned aerial system (UAS). The MN Centurion high-speed interceptor craft is a 39 ft. stepped hull, hydrofoil-assisted catamaran design with lightweight composite structure and a reduced radar signature. Designed and configured for multi-role operations, it is ideally suited for long endurance missions. The command and control bridge houses world class communications and surveillance equipment, along with its reduced radar signature hull, giving this craft the advantage for surveillance patrol, counter-piracy, and asset protection missions. The vessel can also be configured to operate as an unmanned surface vehicle (USV). The MA 380 has a low wing T-tail design with low-drag, low wing loading and retractable landing gear. It is equipped with optical imagery equipment providing real-time high definition, infrared and multispectral video data. The MA 380 has a big wingspan of 39 ft. A MALE platform, it has a maximum range of 1.242 miles and can reach a maximum speed of 136 mph/h. It features a maximum payload capacity of 176 lb. Both systems are expected to be shown at the Africa Aerospace and Defense Expo in September 2018.

Europe

• The assembly of a F-35 Joint Strike Fighters is currently underway at Leonardo’s facility in Cameri, Italy. The fighter aircraft are destined for the Netherlands Air Force. The Netherlands is planning to assemble most of its F-35s at the line at Cameri in northern Italy, where Italian Air Force and Navy F-35s are already being assembled. Italy and the Netherlands are both Tier 2 partners in the multi-billion JSF program. The Italian Navy’s ITS Cavour aircraft carrier is expected to need at least 22 F-35Bs to replace its AV-8 Harrier fighters. The aircraft currently assembled in Cameri is the ninth of the Netherlands’ order of 37 F-35As. Italy is currently due to purchase 60 F-35 As and 30 F-35Bs.

• Serbia’s Yugoimport company has recently unveiled the X-01 Strsljen VTOL UAV. The X-01 Strsljen is being developed by Serbian firm EDePro and is being marketed by Yugoimport. According to Airforce-Technology, the airframe of the Strsljen rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is built using carbon fiber, lightweight steel and aluminum materials. The rotorcraft takes-off vertically using a two-blade main rotor with a teetering head. The tubular skid landing gear is attached to the helicopter’s fuselage structure to facilitate safe landing even on hard surfaces. An integrated autopilot system is installed to provide stabilization and control for the helicopter in all axes. It will provide the UAV with the ability to fly in fully autonomous mode from take-off to landing. The unmanned helicopter is equipped with weapon pylons under the fuselage to carry air-to-surface weapons such as Spider anti-tank missiles and 12.7mm heavy machine gun.

Asia-Pacific

• The Philippine Navy is set to conduct its first test fire of its Spike-ER surface-to-surface missile. The missiles are being fitted onto the Navy’s small MPACs (multi-purpose assault crafts). The Spike infantry system consists of a missile in its cannister, a tripod, a Command Launch Unit that contains the optics and firing system, and a battery. It can go from “off” to firing in less than 30 seconds, as the operator lays the cross hairs on the aim point using either the 10x day sight, or the clip-on thermal imaging night sight. The extended-range (8km) version, Spike-ER, also has a larger warhead. It is designed for mounting on light combat vehicles but can also be removed from a tripod. A bi-directional fiber-optic datalink provides Spike-ER with a fire and steer mode. The Philippine Navy’s Spike-ER missiles with its launchers and tracking systems were delivered to the Philippines from Israel last April.

Today’s Video

• An Israeli F-16 drops the newly developed Rampage missile

American Caterpillar D5 Bulldozer

Assembly of the first European-built F-35 for the Royal Netherlands Air Force has kicked off in Italy. On Jun. 15, Dutch Secretary of State for Defense Barbara Visser gave a symbolic start signal to the assembly of the first F-35 for the RNlAF at Cameri Final Assembly and Check Out (FACO), in northwestern Italy. She […]

Air Centric Personal Recovery Operative Course 2018 was held at the Dutch base of Gilze-Rijen, in the southern part of the Netherlands. The 12th iteration of the Air Centric Personnel Recovery Operatives Course (APROC 2018) took place from May 23 to Jun. 7 at Gilze-Rijen, in the Netherlands, home of the Defense Helicopter Command (DHC) […]