First preliminary results of EDA’s Technology Foresight Exercise 2021 are now available in our website: details of the innovative methodology applied, the so-called ‘Futures Narratives’ and some key trends and developments likely to occur in the future. In the meantime, the final analysis of the exercise findings is still underway with the objective to be completed by the end of this year.
The methodology applied and activities developed throughout 2021 were designed to support the central objective of EDA’s Technology Foresight Exercise: the identification of new technologies, weak signals and innovative trends to support the R&T and capability planning processes and inform future defence policies and programmes of the EU and its Member States. To achieve that, the exercise looked up to 20 years into the future, to provide a strategic vision of the possible impact those new technologies will have on defence in 2040 and beyond.
From Future Narratives to Divergent Thinking to Convergent ThinkingThe exercise stretched over 2021, with successive sessions that brought together different experts, know-how and foresight creativity. Thanks to the wide variety of ideas provided by a multidisciplinary group of foresight experts, so-called ‘Futures Tellers’, multiple possible futures were described in the Futures Narratives. Initially created as food-for-thought to spark the initial discussions among the participating experts, the narratives were meant to widen our vision and imagination about what could be possible towards 2040+, and also what kind of challenges this would entail. Descriptions of the Futures Narratives are now available on EDA’s dedicated website on the Technology Foresight activities.
Based on these narratives, other experts then engaged into a ‘Divergent Thinking’ process with the aim of narrowing down what the afore-mentioned narratives could potentially mean for security and defence in the future. As a result, a set of 14 key challenges and developments has been identified, providing a general and high-level a vision of the future in 2040. A summary of the Divergent Thinking results are also available on the exercise website.
Final analysis still ongoingThe security and defence-related trends identified in the Divergent Thinking process are currently being analysed and converged into clusters (‘Convergent Thinking’ process) with the aim to deduct from them hints about potential disruptive technologies and innovations that will be needed in the future to cope with those developments. A report about the final outcome of the whole foresight exercise is due to be published before the end of this year.
Next stepsThe exercise findings will eventually:
The exercise was based on a new EDA technology foresight methodology which combines different existing methods and processes, along with best practices and lessons learned from the wider EDA community of foresight practitioners. To facilitate outside-the-box thinking, the methodology foresaw different activities, which were taken place along 2021, involving experts from different international organisations, Ministries of Defence, as, as well as from non-governmental bodies, academia, industry, and civil society.
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Alliant Techsystems won a $41.2 million deal, which procures low rate initial production Lot One of the AGM-88G Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile – Extended Range (AARGM-ER). This contract provides for the production and delivery of 16 AGM-88G AARGM-ER All Up Rounds, six AGM-88G AARGM-ER Captive Air Training Missiles, four Common Munitions BIT Reprogramming Equipment Plus interface devices, initial spares, and required supplies and support. Work will take place in California and West Virginia. Estimated completion will be in March 2024.
Northrop Grumman won a $12.9 million contract modification, which provides for the retrofit of Airborne Electronic Attack Weapons Replacement Assembly with 100 production kits required for the modification of ALQ-218 avionics in support of EA-18G upgrades, to include 64 kits for the Navy, and 36 kits for the government of Australia. Work will take place in Connecticut and New York. Estimated completion will be in November 2023.
Middle East & AfricaThe Greek defense ministry held a send off ceremony for the soldiers who are heading to Saudi Arabia to operate a Patriot air defense missile system. The ceremony was held at Tanagra air base.
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is integrating Barak MX interceptors on the Navy’s Sa’ar 6 corvettes. IAI’s Barak MX interceptors along with IAI’s complete naval combat suite will provide advanced defense systems to the Sa’ar 6 corvettes. The systems will be used to protect Israel’s exclusive economic zone and strategic facilities that face diversified threats in the marine arena. The Barak MX system was chosen after it was demonstrated to meet the operational requirements and future challenges faced by the Israeli Navy.
EuropeThe UK Ministry of Defense awarded BAE Systems contracts valued at more than $305 million to deliver advanced synthetic training for pilots training to fly the Typhoon jet. Under the Typhoon Future Synthetic Training (TFST) contracts, BAE Systems is leading work to deliver ten simulators, together with training facilities at RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire and RAF Lossiemouth in Moray. The new training environments will be linked together providing an integrated environment for pilots to train and carry out complex combined training exercises using real world mission software and tactics.
Asia-PacificIndia’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) signed an agreement with Rolls-Royce for Make-in-India Adour engine parts to support the latter’s international defence customer base. India’s Jaguar aircraft are powered by two Adour MK 804 / MK 811 Engines. MK 811 Engines are manufactured from 1981 under license from RR/TM [Rolls Royce Turbomeca].
Today’s VideoWatch: Naval BARAK MX System
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