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If, in the year 2042, different countries and criminal groups provoked an international crisis in an ally of the European Union, what capabilities would the EU need to contain it? If such a crisis escalated into a conflict involving multi-domain operations, cyber attacks, unmanned systems and chemical and biological weapons, what might be the EU’s best capabilities mix?

To help answer those questions, the European Defence Agency organised its second tabletop exercise on future threats in Brussels on 21-22 September, following on from a similar simulation in Helsinki in June.

The EDA brought together about 40 experts and military planners to assess the impact of future threats on military capabilities, supported by a fictional scenario outside the European continent in two decades from now, when digital technology, artificial intelligence and computer networks are likely to develop further and present challenges that the EU must be ready for.

Unlike the Helsinki simulation, which focused on an attack on an EU country, the Brussels tabletop exercise, known as TTX, looked beyond to a geopolitical flashpoint scenario in which the country in question is plunged into full-scale armed conflict and becomes a failed state.

The Helsinki and Brussels tabletop exercises are part of efforts to develop the longer-term aspects of the EU’s Capability Development Plan (CDP). The exercises, which are different from tactical wargames, relied on a simulation involving several states as well as criminal organisations.

With a mix of defence planners, technology and innovation experts, as well as foresight analysts, the Brussels and Helsinki exercises also sought to enhance the integrated approach needed to balance the so-called “capability pull” and the “technology push” aspects of military capability development. As in Helsinki, members of the NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) attended as observers.

By discussing the implications of possible future threats, the exercises encompassed land, sea, air, space and cyber, and considered, among other things, the impact of hybrid warfare, the dominance of artificial intelligence-supported systems, conflict in the grey zone between war and peace, and energy concerns affecting all military domains.

Over the course of the two-day simulation in Brussels, which involved adversaries with advanced cyber and space capabilities, the experts and planners sought to learn as much as possible from such a crisis that involved both kinetic and non-kinetic confrontation, preparing for the long-term to consider the full spectrum of military capabilities that might be needed.

The focus was on assessing the long-term capabilities trends and requirements to contribute to the detailed content of the CDP, which is structured by military tasks and time periods, known as the Generic Military Task List (GMTL) and organised in six main capabilities areas.

The look into warfare in 2040 and beyond is part of the CDP’s so-called Strand B. Other strands in the CDP include short- and mid-term analysis, involving lessons from operations, projects and programmes for cooperation, and assessing their impact on capability requirements.

For more information, please click here: 

• Tabletop Exercise to explore future military capabilities
• CDP Factsheet
• Recent launching of CDP revision by participating Member States

 

French mass data analysis firm ChapsVision on September 22 came one step closer to taking on new duties for French

North Korean diplomats are currently very busy in the territory of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic (DNR) looking for a suitable

Ronen Bar, the head of Israel's internal security service Shin Bet (IO, 15/08/22), gave a rare speech on 12 September

In early September, the State Council and the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) issued its

Working groups and briefing notes at the armed forces ministry and an interministerial task force are all signs that the

Hakan Fidan, the longtime head of Turkey's MIT intelligence service (IO, 07/09/22) was sent to Baghdad by Recep Tayyip Erdogan

As oil and gas contracts flourish in Baku, hotels for lobbyists and executives have been cropping up alongside. One such

Americas

The US Navy awarded Raytheon a $160 million deal for Dual Band Radar (DBR) design agent and technical engineering efforts. Engineering efforts and supplies are required to support the DBR systems installed aboard CVN-78 and DDG-1000 class ships. Work will take place in Massachusetts, California, Rhode Island and Virginia. Estimated completion will be by September 2023.

The US Army’s Program Executive Office Missiles and Space has issued a Request For Information (RFI) for the Close Combat Missile System-Heavy (CCMS-H). The CCMS-H is to replace the existing BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missile. The new missile must be able to destroy Tier 1 armored threats and field fortifications. It must have dual command guidance such as Fire and Forget, Command-Line of Sight, or Semi-Active Laser homing while incorporating reprogrammable target prioritization capability. The Army intends to store the CCMS-H for up to ten years and the missile must be ready to be fired at any time.

Middle East & Africa

The Israeli Navy has successfully test-fired a Gabriel 5 anti-ship missile from INS Oz. The Israeli Defense Ministry says the test was carried out in August. Israel Aerospace Industries manufactures the Gabriel family of advanced sea-skimming missiles.

Raytheon won a $15.3 million order, which provides for depot-level repair capability for the government of Kuwait’s inventory of AN/APG-79 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar weapon replaceable assemblies. Work will be performed in El Segundo, California and Forest, Mississippi and is expected to be completed in February 2023.

Europe

Defense News reports that the Italian Air Force and Navy have figured out how to manage their small fleets of F-35Bs, and it goes something like “Joint training and operations, but separate bases.” With both services due to receive just 15 F-35B’s each, the need for pooled management has been obvious to officials, despite  rivalries between the military branches.

Asia-Pacific

Japan has officially acknowledged that three Eurofighters from the German Air Force will be arriving at Hyakuri Air Base on September 28. The Germans will participate in joint training with F-2 fighter pilots from the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. The ASDF says the goal is to promote mutual understanding, strengthen defense cooperation and improve the ASDF’s tactical skills.

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Since the start of the war in Ukraine, US defence group CACI has little by little become the main supplier

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According to our sources, Hamas put the final touches to its reconciliation with Syrian President Bashar Al Assad's regime in

In the midst of a fresh spate of clashes with Armenia and the need for new foreign arms partners, Baku

The United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism renewed on 13 September its $53,000 contract with London-based Opcit Research, which will provide for research

Americas

The US Air Force announced that Northrop Grumman would roll out the B-21 bomber in the first week of December at its production facilities in Palmdale, California. “We last introduced a new bomber over 30 years ago. As we look to the threats posed by our pacing challenge; we must continue to rapidly modernize. The B-21 Raider will provide formidable combat capability across a range of operations in highly contested environments of the future,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown, Jr said.

Textron won a $7.7 million modification to remove work, incorporate additional work and exercise an option to a previously awarded contract FA8617-22-C-6238 for Building Partner Capacity T-6C Program – Tranche 1. This descope and add work contract modification provides for the configuration change of the T-6C aircraft being produced under the basic contract. This modification also provides for the exercise of an option for an additional quantity of six personal life support equipment being produced under the basic contract via option exercise. Work will be performed in Wichita, Kansas, and is expected to be complete by September 30, 2024.

Middle East & Africa

Noble Supply and Logistics won a $500 million modification exercising the first one-year option period of a three-year base contract with two one-year option periods under solicitation SPE8E3-18-R-0010 for facilities maintenance, repair and operations support in the Central Command Area of Responsibility. This is a firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. Locations of performance are Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, with an October 1, 2023, ordering period end date. Estimated completion date is October 1, 2023.

Sikorsky won a $32.8 million modification to exercise an option for two UH-60M aircraft for Foreign Military Sales. UH-60 Black Hawk is a multi-mission helicopter developed by Sikorsky that has been operational in the US Army since 1978. The export version of the UH-60 Black Hawk is designated as S-70A. Work will take place in Connecticut. Estimated completion date is June 30, 2027. Fiscal 2010 Foreign Military Sales (Jordan) funds in the full amount were obligated at the time of the award.

Europe

Defense News reports that the British government has ordered an update of its defense and security review published last year and hopes to complete a revised plan by the end of 2022, Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced. Touted as the biggest defense review since the Cold War when it was unveiled in March 2021, Britain’s update of strategic aims and capabilities has been overtaken by events following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Asia-Pacific

Australia’s first MQ-4C Triton high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) unmanned aircraft destined for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) was unveiled on September 14 by Northrop Grumman at Palmdale California. The Triton’s will be particularly useful in protecting Australia’s northern maritime regions. Northrop Grumman began build in October 2020 with the fuselage and one-piece wing coupled together in December 2021.

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The Permanent Structured Cooperation, or PESCO, is among the most ambitious EU defence initiatives. Launched in December 2017, it aims to increase defence cooperation among the participating EU Member States to a new level. Twenty-five participating states signed up to 20 more binding commitments to jointly plan, develop and invest in shared capability projects. As PESCO approaches its fifth anniversary, the PESCO Secretariat – the European Defence Agency (EDA), the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the European Union Military Staff (EUMS) – have prepared an annual PESCO Projects Progress Report which highlights the underlying diversity of progress in ongoing projects.

Read the full article on the PESCO website