SWP

Two years after the climate summit in Paris, the euphoria over the diplomatic break-through and adoption of new targets – holding the temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably even to 1.5 degrees – has largely evaporated. There has been little sign of additional ambition in climate change mitigation since. One fundamental problem is the global nature of temperature targets, which are little suited for generating concrete national action plans and not at all suited for evaluating emissions reduction measures implemented by governments or businesses. Starting with the “facilitative dialogue” being prepared at the Bonn climate summit for 2018, it is the third Paris mitigation target that should be the benchmark: namely to attain greenhouse-gas neutrality in the second half of the century. The European Commission and member states of the European Union (EU) should make the zero emissions target their central reference point in reformulating the Climate Roadmap 2050 and in adopting a long-term decarbonisation strategy. This could provide the opportunity to redesign the EU’s climate policy so as to make it both more ambitious and more pragmatic.

In September 2017 the EU updated its 2013 Cyber Security Strategy. The new version is intended to improve the protection of Europe’s critical infrastructure and boost the EU’s digital self-assertiveness towards other regions of the world. But the reformed strategy leaves open a number of questions as to how its objective of an “open, safe and secure cyberspace” will be credibly defended, both internally and externally. The EU has neither properly defined resilience or deterrence nor made sufficiently clear how it intends to overcome institutional fragmentation and lack of legal authority in cybersecurity issues. Moreover, controversial topics – such as the harmonisation of criminal law or the use of encryption – have been entirely omitted. Member states should abandon their standalone efforts and speed up the legal regulation of cybersecurity at the EU level.

Making greater of use of the waters of the Congo could boost development across – and beyond – the region, but threatens to favour particular users’ interests at the expense of others. Within its enormous catchment area, the Congo is the dominant transport network and the lifeblood of the African rain forest, upon which millions depend for their livelihoods. Tapping the river’s resources could significantly improve the region’s water and food supplies, while its hydro-energy potential could theoretically satisfy the electricity needs of the entire continent. Plans to construct more major dams at the Inga Falls demonstrate that the ten Congo Basin states are pursuing common goals – but also having to deal with sharpening intersectoral conflicts. An inconsistent line on dam-building makes it harder for Germany to play a constructive role in these development processes.

Die deutsch-tschechischen Beziehungen geraten in eine komplizierte Phase. Nachdem in beiden Ländern die Parlamente neu gewählt worden sind, steht nun die Regierungsbildung an. Währenddessen ist neuer Schwung in die Diskussion über die Reform der EU gekommen, ohne dass Berlin oder Prag mit eigenen Vorschlägen an die Öffentlichkeit getreten wären. Bilateral wird das Thema zwar konstruktiv, aber nicht schlüssig behandelt. Vor allem die Konturen der tschechischen Europapolitik sind seit Jahren unklar. Um mehr als nur ein pragmatisches Nebeneinander zu sichern und einem Auseinanderdriften in der EU rechtzeitig entgegenzuwirken, müssen beide Seiten die europapolitische Dimension ihres Verhältnisses bewusst weiterentwickeln.

Zwei Jahre nach dem Pariser Klimagipfel ist die Euphorie über den diplomatischen Durchbruch und die Verabschiedung neuer Ziele – die Eindämmung des Temperaturanstiegs auf deutlich unter 2 Grad, möglichst sogar 1,5 Grad – weitgehend verflogen. Von zusätzlichem Ehrgeiz ist beim Klimaschutz seither wenig zu sehen. Ein Grundproblem liegt in der globalen Natur von Temperaturzielen, aus denen sich für nationale Politik und Wirtschaft nur wenig konkrete Handlungsanleitungen ergeben und die sich auch nicht dazu eignen, Klimaschutzmaßnahmen von Regierungen und Unternehmen zu bewerten. Schon im Rahmen des »facilitative dialogue«, der beim Bonner Klimagipfel vorbereitet wird und für 2018 geplant ist, sollte daher das dritte Klimaschutzziel von Paris als Maßstab ins Zentrum gestellt werden: das Erreichen von Treibhausgasneutralität in der zweiten Jahrhunderthälfte. EU-Kommission und Mitgliedstaaten sollten dieses Nullemissionsziel bei der Neuformulierung der Klima-Roadmap 2050 und der Verabschiedung einer langfristigen Dekarbonisierungsstrategie zum zentralen Orientierungspunkt machen. Dies würde die Chance eröffnen, die EU-Klimapolitik künftig sowohl ehrgeiziger als auch pragmatischer zu konzipieren.

Renewable and decentralized power generation are a centerpiece of Germany’s domestic energy transition (Energiewende) and a major element of its international efforts to promote this goal. Recently, the renewables sector has also been advancing in Russia, albeit from a lower level. Thus, it is time to explore the status quo and analyze the potential for sustainable energy cooperation. In the context of the current deterioration in EU-Russian (energy) relations, crafting a sustainable energy partnership that is based on innovation, with an emphasis on electricity cooperation, might present an added value.

The aim of China’s Silk Road Initiative is to bolster both its international legitimacy and its geopolitical power. One important element of the initiative is the plan to transport export goods by high-speed train to Western Europe. In order to ensure that rapid freight transit is profitable in the long term, Beijing believes that major changes are needed along the borders of Central Asia. The Chinese government has explicitly called for reforms from its partner countries, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, meaning greater economic openness, regional cooperation and modern border crossings.

The opportunities for change in Central Asia are now much better than in the past. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s growth models have reached their limits and both countries are now under considerable pressure to reform. Uzbekistan’s new president has also announced promising new reform policies. In addition, political rule in Central Asia is now more institutionalized and, therefore, increasing scope for partial reforms. Furthermore, since the beginning of the century, China has become a powerful actor in the region. Unlike Russia, it is interested in better intra-regional cooperation in Central Asia and, ultimately, the Silk Road Initiative provides incentives for reform and greater cooperation at the borders.

For Germany and the EU, it might be worth discussing common interests with China and how synergies could be used to positively influence the reforms. The EU can draw on the knowledge and experience gained from its long-term project on border reforms in Central Asia.

Ten years after Hamas violently seized power in Gaza, and following a string of failures to reconcile the Palestinian factions, there are now signs of a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas. In September 2017 the Hamas leadership announced it would dissolve the administrative committee it had established in March, opening the way for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over the government in the Gaza Strip. In mid-October representatives of Hamas and Fatah signed an Egyptian-mediated reconciliation agreement. On 1 November PA forces were deployed to the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Even if there are still major obstacles to merging the two security apparatuses, establishing a unity government, restoring the democratic process and achieving comprehensive reconciliation – the chances of the rapprochement preventing another round of armed conflict and improving the situation for the population in crisis-ridden Gaza are considerably better this time around. Germany and its European partners should help to accentuate the positive dynamics, support permanent improvements of the situation in Gaza through practical steps and work towards comprehensive reconciliation between the Palestinian factions.

Even though the country is a regional frontrunner, Georgian democracy is not yet consolidated. Parliamentary elections in 2016 saw the governing Georgian Dream returned with a constitutional majority. The October 2017 local elections brought the ruling party another sweeping victory. Despite Georgian Dream’s overwhelming electoral successes, the country faces voter apathy. Alongside lack of parliamentary controls and a fragmentation of the party-political spectrum this does not bode well for consolidating democracy in the near future.

Although the UN report of 2012 projected that Gaza would be uninhabitable by 2020, Gaza is likely to collapse into a state of chaos domestically and renewed military confrontation with Israel much earlier. Gaza’s current reality is shaped by the aftermath of military clashes between Israel and Palestinian groups, the tightening of the blockade by Israel in 2007, the closure of the Rafah Crossing by Egypt, and the international community’s no-contact policy towards Hamas. This has created a situation of isolation, in which the infrastructure as well as the social and political fabrics in the Gaza Strip have suffered. Gaza’s once export-oriented economy is now largely defunct, with the population impoverished and dependent on foreign aid. These factors pose serious threats to domestic stability, to Palestinian unity, and to the stability of the sub-region. Immediate intervention by the EU is needed to alleviate the humanitarian crisis, advance Palestinian reconciliation, and lift the Israeli blockade. The current rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas offers opportunities for the Europeans to engage.

The perceived shift from chaos to an evolving order in Syria presents a challenge to Israel’s policy of limited intervention. Iran’s growing influence in Syria and its efforts to improve Hezbollah’s strategic capacities presents Israeli decision-makers with a sense of urgency to act now while the future settlement in Syria is still being shaped in order to avoid a fait accompli of an Iranian stronghold on Israel’s northern border. This notion is further enhanced by a perceived lack of a serious commitment from the main extra-regional powerbroker, Russia, as well as the US to Israel’s national security needs. During the last few months, the first signs of a change became apparent in Israel’s strategic approach as well as a new willingness to take active measures to contain Iran’s strategic efforts in Syria. The combination of a new proactive Israeli policy and the lack of a security regime to regulate the situation increases the likelihood of an unintended escalation between the parties. Germany should use its relations and leverage vis-à-vis the two parties to promote a new security regime between Israel and Iran and help prevent a destructive escalation.

Zehn Jahre nach der gewaltsamen Machtübernahme durch die Hamas im Gaza-Streifen und nach mehreren gescheiterten Versuchen, die innerpalästinensische Spaltung zu beenden, zeichnet sich im Herbst 2017 eine Annäherung zwischen Fatah und Hamas ab. Im September gab die Hamas-Führung die Auflösung ihres im März geschaffenen Verwaltungskomitees bekannt; damit machte sie den Weg frei zur Übernahme der Regierung im Gaza-Streifen durch die Palästinensische Autorität (PA). Mitte Oktober einigten sich Vertreter von Hamas und Fatah unter ägyptischer Vermittlung auf ein Versöhnungsabkommen. Auch wenn hohe Hürden einer Zusammenführung der Sicherheitsapparate, einer Einheitsregierung, der Rückkehr zum demokratischen Prozess und einer umfassenden Aussöhnung entgegenstehen: Die Chance, dass die Annäherung eine weitere kriegerische Auseinandersetzung verhindert und zumindest Fortschritte für die Bevölkerung im krisengeschüttelten Gaza-Streifen bringt, ist gegenüber bisherigen Versöhnungsbemühungen deutlich gestiegen. Deutschland und seine Partner in der EU sollten die positive Dynamik stärken, eine dauerhafte Verbesserung der Situation durch praktische Schritte unterstützen und auf eine umfassende Überwindung der innerpalästinensischen Spaltung hinwirken.