Diplomacy & Crisis News

French intelligence faults the U.S.-Russia chemical pact and discloses Syria's effort to acquire ingredients for a nerve agent.

As the European Parliament debates Orban to his face.

North Korea's behavior might seem irrational to outsiders, but the Kim regime is just taking logical actions to survive.

Trump’s “America first” instincts are real, but radical change is hard to enact.

When the Kremlin decided to meddle in the U.S. election in favor of Trump, it nurtured the hope of a reset in bilateral ties with Western Europe and the United States. The idea of a U.S. President as the leader of the populist movements rising in the West was seen as an advantageous scenario for Moscow.

As disillusionment over Trump’s alleged pro-Russian view is growing at home, Putin might return to the  “besieged fortress” narrative domestically in order to secure his upcoming reelection.

In Russia, the wave of populism throughout Europe and the United States was considered as a victory over the West.  Brexit, the rise of right-wing parties across the EU and Trump—all seem to be proof that the conservative ideology originated in the Kremlin to take on “false” liberal democratic values is partly shared with Western countries. As liberal values in the West were defeated, rise of populism was depicted as people’s rebellion against own corrupt governments thanks to Russia’s efforts.

The strike on al-Shayrat air base and Washington’s sudden interventionist approach to Syria caught the Kremlin’s strategists off guard. It seemed that Trump had distanced himself from his “America First” isolationism and for many in Russia it appeared as if Trump had reneged on his campaign promises.

Trump’s decision to get tough on Russia would be the ultimate failure of the Kremlin’s foreign policies goals and a personal defeat for Vladimir Putin. This is particularly worrisome considering next year’s presidential elections next year and the growing protests with already brought people on the streets last March.

Nevertheless, Trump’s policy towards Syria might bring both nations together, for a cause of a good war against ISIS, the scenario of a proxy conflict now seems more plausible. Many in Russia actually fearing that Syria might turn into another Vietnam when the Soviets fought along the Viet Cong against the Americans. With more American strikes possibly following, and presence of US ground troops expanding – the Kremlin grows cautious of avoiding a quagmire that will not go well domestically.

For the past year, Russian state-media consistently depicted Trump as a friend and one of “ours”, while its recent statements and actions put it into hot water. Regardless speculations that Trump decided to strike Syria because of its collapsing ratings domestically and sweeping accusations of his assistants’ connections to the Russian government – the new image of Trump is taking over the country’s media landscape.

State-media now draws Trump as incompetent in handling Russia and other global issues; while genuinely unfit to serve as a president. He is likewise presented as a victim of the neoconservatives such as Steve Bannon, or falling under the influence of America’s “deep state” or his democratic-leaning daughter – Ivanka.

During the recent evening with Vladimir Solovyev, Russia’s major and state-controlled political talk show, some of the participants even expressed feeling of missing Obama’s days while describing Trump.

Switching depiction of Trump goes along with new messages resurrecting for the Putin 2018 presidential campaign. As most of the media agenda is heavily regulated by the state, it is vital to stop presenting Trump as “one of ours” but rather as an incompetent president who might trigger the world war three, as also betraying Russia’s sincere hopes and benign efforts for better bilateral relations.

For the Russian state-media there are few options left now but to return to the “besieged fortress” imagery. In fact, the choice is a blessing in disguise for Putin.

Image of being a victorious leader could have secured an easy reelection but likewise made Russians to stop rallying around the flag and instead scrutinizing other troubling issues such as rampant corruption. Recently, Alexey Navalny’s, Russia’s major opposition figure, disclosed a massive corruption scheme of the Prime-Minister Dmitriy Medvedev by posting findings on YouTube. The public response was massive and caused a heated wave of protests countrywide that rattled the Kremlin.

If the West is finally defeated, it is going to be harder to deter attention from domestic problems. In contrast, resumed hostility augments opportunities for self-victimization and emergence of a public narrative of being under attack. Expressing the unquestionable support for the experienced commander-in-chief remains the sole option for withstanding enemies while fighting corruption could be postponed.

The post Trump’s Foreign Policy Helps Putin’s Reelection Plan appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro de printemps de Politique étrangère (n°1/2017). Alix Philippon propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de François Burgat, Comprendre l’islam politique. Une trajectoire de recherche sur l’altérité islamiste, 1973-2016 (La Découverte, 2016, 264 pages).

François Burgat, c’est d’abord un style ciselé, élégant et efficace. La métaphore qui fait mouche, l’impertinence qui donne à penser sont chez lui au service d’une thèse d’une remarquable stabilité depuis les années 1980 : derrière le lexique islamique auquel ont recours les acteurs islamistes se cachent des causes toutes profanes, sociales et politiques. Et ce retour massif au « parler musulman », moins sacré qu’il n’est endogène, se traduit par une extrême diversité d’appropriations. En récusant toute relation causale stable entre islam et action politique, son analyse échappe aux travers de l’approche culturaliste dont Gilles Kepel s’est fait le chantre. Ce qui n’est pas la moindre de ses qualités.

À la fois scientifiquement et politiquement incorrect, Burgat nous offre ici une ego-histoire étonnamment humble, truculente et au moins aussi passionnante que celle qu’Olivier Roy a consacrée à son propre parcours dans En quête de l’Orient perdu (Seuil, 2014). De l’ombre de son clocher de Savoie, où il a très vite l’intuition qu’il n’abrite pas le seul universel possible, à ses multiples expériences professionnelles et personnelles en pays arabes (Algérie, Égypte, Yémen, Syrie, etc.), en passant par son tour du monde de jeunesse et les enseignements du terrain français, l’auteur nous offre une perspective grand angle sur une riche trajectoire au cœur d’une altérité – arabe et musulmane – souvent diabolisée. Aux arguties théoriques qui peuvent à juste titre le rebuter chez nombre de ses collègues politistes qui oublient de se référer à leur terrain, François Burgat préfère le « pragmatisme méthodologique ».

Avec générosité, il nous embarque dans une aventure humaine et intellectuelle où, à coups d’analyses politiques mais aussi d’anecdotes savoureuses, il donne à voir ce que la fabrique des idées, la production d’un savoir scientifique doivent à l’expérience et à la perception intime, mais aussi à une méthode qualitative, celle de l’immersion prolongée dans les sociétés complexes qu’on se propose, dans l’idéal, d’abord de comprendre et ensuite d’expliquer. François Burgat défend avec conviction une science politique inductive, comparative et dialogique, élaborée en interaction avec son objet d’étude. Mais cette proximité, jugée suspecte, a un coût élevé : « l’ami des égorgeurs » comme il a pu être vite catalogué dans les années 1990, a longtemps été victime d’un ostracisme aussi bien du milieu politique que médiatique, mais aussi (surtout ?) académique.

C’est peut-être la virulence des réactions à ses thèses qui peut quelquefois le pousser à épouser un registre normatif et militant : les « égoïsmes » occidentaux sont alors dénoncés et la « responsabilité » des dominants non musulmans dans les phénomènes de radicalisation rappelés. Quoi qu’il en soit, cette approche « tiers-mondiste » – comme la qualifie Olivier Roy – nous semble aujourd’hui essentielle (quoique non exclusive d’autres paradigmes explicatifs) pour comprendre ces violences qui sont perpétrées ici comme ailleurs au nom de l’islam. Elle replace au cœur de l’analyse, et sur le temps long, la domination pérenne du Nord sur le Sud, mais aussi « le dérèglement de la sphère du politique, le dysfonctionnement des mécanismes de représentation et d’allocations des ressources entre les composantes du tissu politique ». Elle rappelle donc que l’affrontement, loin d’être imputable à l’islam, relève avant tout d’une matrice non religieuse.

Alix Philippon

Pour vous abonner à Politique étrangère, cliquez ici.

Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana tours the Philippine-claimed Thitu Island during his visit to the Spratlys Group of islands off the disputed South China Sea in western Philippines Friday, April 21, 2017. (AP/Bullit Marquez)

After bowing to Beijing’s request to retract his threat to plant a flag on Pag-asa (Thitu) Island over Philippine Independence Day on June 12, the mercurial Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has likely angered the Chinese again.

Immediately after his retraction, his military announced on April 16 its plans to hold ten days of joint military exercises with U.S. troops in May. Duterte then sent his defense secretary, Delfin Lorenzana, his military chief of staff General Eduardo Ano and about 40 journalists, to tour Thitu Island on April 21 in an apparent show of sovereignty over the disputed island.

Before landing, the Philippine C-130 military aircraft received a warning from Chinese forces to leave the airspace. In conjunction with the visit, plans were announced to invest $32 million in upgrading the island’s military infrastructure, including the upgrading of its runway. Filipino troops have been stationed on Thitu since the 1960s.

The move to again engage the Americans comes after months of heated anti-U.S. rhetoric from Duterte since he assumed office last summer. Duterte has long mistrusted the U.S., recently lambasted the presence of American troops, called for the end of joint military exercises, and even called for a “separation” from the U.S. while courting billions of aid and investment from Beijing last October. “I announce my separation from the United States both in the military… not social, but economics also,” he told the Chinese in Beijing, “so I will be dependent on you for a long time.”

The military exercises, known as Balikatan (Shoulder-to-Shoulder), are held every year, but this year will not involve any live-fire exercises or simulations of protecting territory, such as the disputed islands with China (China seized Mischief Reef from Manila beginning in 1994 and took Scarborough Shoal in early 2012). Rather, the exercises among some 5,000 American and Filipino soldiers will be limited to disaster and humanitarian responses and counter-terrorism efforts.

The toning down of the military exercises (and his promise not to plant a flag) are likely appeasements to Beijing, where Duterte intends to meet Chinese president Xi Jinping in May. But Beijing cannot be happy about the military cooperation with the U.S. and the defense secretary’s visit to Thitu island. For now, Filipino fishing boats, Chinese military vessels and Chinese industrial fishing boats are all operating in the Scarborough Shoal peacefully. But there are recent reports that Filipino fishermen were harassed and driven away by the Chinese Coast Guard from Union Bank in the Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea.

Any slight skirmish there (or elsewhere) could spark a military clash and draw in the U.S. military – which is bound by the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 to protect its ally’s islands.

The post Manila Asserts Claims Over South China Sea Island appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

By Robert Elway Study the US economy and its relationship to other countries and you will see two effects of the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policy: higher gold and lower US dollar purchasing power. From January 2003 to March 2017, the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) dropped by 36% while gold rose 169%, and dollar purchasing power reflects this low-rate environment. One 2017 dollar equals only seventy-five cents in 2003 dollars. The US dollar has remained at 75% purchasing power since 2014, making the nominal prices of goods and services more expensive in the United States than they were fourteen years ago. The Fed’s Impact on International Trade From the perspective of the US, the trade balance increased in 2009 and has remained above 2004-2008 averages since then. Our trade gap with China has gotten larger since 2012, mainly by rises in imports of consumer goods. At least for a time of mass appeal among American consumers, platform-based products like the iPhone can create more production in goods and services than the sum of their parts. In addition to the suppliers of the physical goods used in manufacturing the phone, there is also the platform it creates for an increasingly services-oriented environment indirectly fueled by easy money from central banks around the world. Especially in a low interest rate environment as the US has been experiencing since 2009, importing some goods can create growth in domestic industries like technology-based services. The Fed’s accommodative policies have led to a paucity of traditional returns from US government bonds, which tends to make venture capital and other, often riskier, forms of investing more attractive to the traditionally risk-averse. This leads to pension funds investing in venture capital firms which fund startups that support New Economy jobs. We’ve heard news stories about these jobs, especially with Uber and other apps-turned-employers in the United States–all created, or in the very least facilitated, by a platform that takes advantage of the Chinese-manufactured iPhone and an ever-larger amount of capital looking for above-average return. Rosland Capital’s chart below was compiled using this information on how a lower dollar purchasing power affects precious metals and gold IRAs as well as other dollar-denominated assets. The flat periods show times when the dollar was affected by Ben Bernanke’s monetary policy just before the 2009 recession, along with the Fed’s post-QE policy after 2014. Both resulted in a temporarily stagnating dollar purchasing power. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) controls for nominal price disparities that result in nations having a different cost of living, allowing for economists to compare multiple countries’ output, usually expressed in terms of International Dollars. This is a unit of currency based on the US dollar’s purchasing power during a specific year that is kept consistent throughout the comparison with other countries. For the example below, purchasing power parity can be derived from GDP or by equating the Consumer Price Indices of individual countries. The PPP exchange rate determines how many US dollars, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, or euros consumers in their home countries would need to convert to International Dollars in order to equal the same purchasing power as consumers in other countries for a given year.

Using 2017 as a reference year for per capita PPP produces Charts 1 and 2 below.

Chart 1: Higher PPP Chart 2: Lower PPP Growth Back in 2006 and 2007, Chart 2 shows that total PPP per capita for the US, Germany, Japan and China was growing over 30%. In 2009, China, Germany and the US all had decelerating growth while purchasing power parity still grew in Japan. However, Japan’s shrinkage in growth from 2010-2015 had the greatest impact on the overall total. While the pre-financial collapse years saw over-15% growth just from the US and Japan alone, all four countries’ PPP growth barely amounted to this same benchmark by 2015. Robert Elway is a financial analyst at Rosland Capital, a precious metals company that tracks gold pricing, monetary policy and other financial news.

The post The Fed, Trade, and Dollar Purchasing Power appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Paul Manafort meets with Yan Jiehe, March 5 (China Pacific Construction Group; archive).

Former Donald Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort, currently under investigation for his pro-Russian ties and Russian money laundering, will now be advising Chinese billionaire Yan Jiehe (严介和) on gaining access to lucrative infrastructure projects in the United States according to the Financial Times. Yan is the founder of China Pacific Construction Group (CPCG, 中国太平洋建设集团) and one of the wealthiest men in China (See also Fortune, Huffington Post, Salon, The Week).

Manafort met with Yan in Shanghai on April 11, according to the Financial Times, and was described by Yan as “Trump’s special envoy.” During his visit Manafort was treated to a Huangpu riverboat tour of Shanghai, and indicated that he “would be returning to China within a month for further talks.” Yan clearly indicated that the purpose of the meeting was to discuss access to U.S. infrastructure projects to be funded by the Trump administration to the tune of a trillion dollars.

“I will not seek out Trump,” said Yan confidently, “He will seek me out. In the entire world, I am definitely the most ideal privately owned unit to invest in construction. In the whole world, there’s not another company equal to Pacific Construction.” Despite such bravado, Yan’s meeting with Manafort suggests that he is indeed seeking out Trump (and seeking out U.S. public funds that American taxpayers might rather see go to an American construction company).

Manafort’s spokesman, Jason Maloni, initially denied that Manafort was in China on business; then denied that his business in China involved “any current or future infrastructure projects or contracts in the United States.” Maloni’s denials seem to conflict with Yan’s own statements at this meeting, however, and with the details of previous contacts between Manafort and Yan.

According to the CPCG website (March 8; archive), Manafort met previously with Yan in Beijing on March 5-7. Manafort and Yan are pictured above at this meeting and below with unspecified others in attendance. The meeting is reported in detail also by Jingsun Group (京商集团, March 15; archive), an infrastructure company associated with Yan that hosted the event. This previous meeting is not included in the Financial Times report, and until now seems to have escaped U.S. media attention.

Paul Manafort in Beijing, March 7 (China Pacific Construction Group; archive).

In Beijing, as in Shanghai, Manafort was described as a “special envoy of President Trump” (He was also curiously described as the “godfather of Ivanka Trump.”). Manafort is praised in these reports for his work on behalf of such figures as former dictators Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, Mohamed Siad Barre of Somalia, and Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine. Manafort’s history with these and other autocrats around the world appears to have been taken as a prime qualification for work on behalf of China’s interests.

Yan has a reputation as something of a maverick and claims to keep a distance from the Chinese Communist Party. He is a former local government official, however, and frequently appears alongside current party officials on Chinese government and state-run media websites. No one does business in China as successfully as Yan without having a cozy relationship with the Communist Party.

Yan Jiehe with Paul Manafort, Beijing, March 6 (Jingsun Group; archive).

Present also with Yan and Manafort at the March event in Beijing were Jiang Zedong (姜泽栋), chairman and Communist Party secretary of the Northern Design and Research Institute (北方设计研究院), a part of China’s state-owned defense industry; Chen Shiping (陈诗平), general manager of state-owned China Railway International Group (中铁国际集团有限公司), a major player in China’s “going out” strategy with operations throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America; a Moldovan entrepreneur named Ruslan Birladeanu (Руслан Бырлэдяну); and other “Chinese and foreign political and business circles.”

In comments to Fortune, Yan said that a total of three meetings with Manafort in China have taken place.

The post Paul Manafort Advising Chinese Billionaire on U.S. Infrastructure Projects appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown urged last week the creation of an international facility that aims to raise billions of dollars in funding for children’s education in poor and conflict-stricken countries.

Brown, who led the United Kingdom from 2007 to 2010, spoke at an event organized by the Foreign Policy Association and hosted at the United Nations, where he serves as special envoy for global education.

In support of the UN-sponsored education commission he is leading, Brown said the international community must create an innovative financing scheme to raise additional funding for the estimated 260 million children who are not in primary or secondary school today. The International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunities has proposed a facility that will raise money from donor countries, the private sector and multilateral development banks to provide schooling for 800 million young people predicted to lack necessary workforce skills by 2030.

“Half the children of the world denied their future, half our future that we have not properly invested in,” Brown said. “It is time that we think innovatively about how we can do something to end the education crisis that we face.”

The International Finance Facility for Education (IFFEd) Brown proposed draws inspiration from a fundraising program launched in 2006 to raise money for Gavi, an organization providing vaccinations in the world’s poorest regions. Over a 10-year period, the International Finance Facility for Immunisation has raised over $5.7 billion.

The Education Commission has set a goal to mobilize $13 billion annually by 2020.

Brown said the IFFEd will help fund the Global Partnership for Education and Education Cannot Wait, a program providing school resources to countries hosting refugees. The facility will work by incentivizing lower-middle-income countries to take out interest-free loans from The World Bank and regional development banks, which can then be turned into grants. Public and private donations would be used to secure “buy-downs of non-concessional loans” from development banks.

According to a report The Education Commission published, estimates show that $2 billion in guarantees and $2.5 billion in buy-downs would leverage around $10 billion in additional concessional financing per year.

“Don’t tell me this cannot be done, because we did it when we created the IFF facility for vaccination,” Brown said. “We’ve done it before when we had to make major changes to the way we deliver aid.”

Countries prioritizing education investment should be first in line for IFFEd loan and grant funding, Brown explained. He said The Education Commission has recommended low-and-middle-income countries increase education spending from the average today of 4 percent to 5.8 percent in return for increased international funding.

Since 2002, the share of overseas education development aid has fallen from 13 percent to 10 percent, leading to what Brown said is a failure to live up to the UN’s sustainable development goal of providing universal quality education. There is enough aid money today for $8 per child out of school, he said.

“All we can muster with all of the aid money we put together is not enough to pay for a textbook, certainly not enough to pay for a teacher, not enough to pay for the building and for the maintenance of schools,” Brown explained.

Girls in low-income countries and children in conflict zones are most likely to be deprived education, he continued, saying those displaced by war are most vulnerable to becoming child laborers, forced into marriage or sold as sex slaves.

Brown said the “civil rights struggle of our time” is to end discrimination against girls by increasing their access to education and ending sexual exploitation. He called it a “vicious cycle” that uneducated mothers in Africa have an average of five children, compared to two children for mothers who attended school, that “starts with a failure to educate girls.”

Quoting Nelson Mandela, Brown said that “promises made to children are sacred,” and a promise made by the international community to provide young people a chance at a better life is not being met.

“What destroys hope amongst children is their inability to plan and prepare for any future,” Brown said, “ because they are denied the very basic human right that is so important, and that is a right to education.”
***

Are you interested in attending the Foreign Policy Association’s next lecture?

What: Foreign influence operations and counterintelligence
Who: William Evanina, Director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center and Charles McGonigal, FBI Special Agent in Charge of the Counterintelligence Division for the New York Field Office
When: Tuesday, May 9, 6pm to 8pm
Where: Baruch College
William and Anita Newman Conference Center, Room 750 Baruch College Library
151 E 25th Street
New York, NY

Please click here for more information.

The post Former British PM Brown Urges Creation of Education Finance Facility appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

At this year’s Foreign Policy Association Lecture on Conflict Prevention Richard G. Lugar, former Republican senator from Indiana, discussed the issues revolving around the United States’ global leadership. Could Donald Trump’s “America First” isolationism, professed during his electoral campaign, decrease the U.S.’ role in the world, and ultimately its security?

Since World War II the United States has been an essential factor in preventing conflict in different parts of the world. In Europe, U.S. security guarantees and its commitment to the NATO alliance has offered stability to the continent for over 70 years.

Consequences of Trump’s foreign policy

America’s leadership has been for decades an issue that support by both Democrats and Republicans. The Trump administration seems intended on reducing U.S. footprint globally, at the risk of lessening Washington’s ability to prevent conflicts.

Indeed, Senator Lugar argued that: “The people of the United States and most countries of the world will become poorer and will have to endure more frequent conflict. Solutions to threats that impact us all, including climate change, extreme poverty and hunger, communicable diseases, nuclear proliferation, cyberwarfare, and terrorism will be almost impossible to solve.”

Trump’s foreign policy goals, at times simplistic or reactive, do little to increase the welfare of U.S. citizens. The current administration has conducted a series of ad hoc policy decisions and failed to promote existing alliances and America’s leadership within international institutions.

The use of military power characterized by the recent missile strikes in Syria not only went against Trump campaign platform but also demonstrated the administration’s preference for the use of force over diplomatic action. Senator Lugar acknowledged the necessity of a military as a deterrent against aggression but also pointed out its weaknesses: “we cannot bomb our way to security”.

Trade

On trade, Trump has been declaring that America has been taken advantage of by other countries. The loss of jobs, particularly in manufacturing, has been mostly caused by innovation in mechanization and information technology.

After accepting that industry jobs are not likely to return anytime soon, the main challenge remains to deal with these economic dislocations. Senator Lugar stresses the importance of helping retrain workers and connect them to new jobs rather than attempting to isolate a nation from international trade competition.

Immigration

On immigration, Trump’s administration policies “have been designed for ostentatious symbolism rather than for maximizing U.S. security… wasting both American resources and international good will” contended Senator Lugar.

Senator Lugar offered an example of the adverse effects of recent policies decision. Discussing the ban on entrants to the U.S. from Muslim countries, Lugar judged the policy “the most obvious recruitment tool against the United States since Abu Ghraib.” The senator went on to say that: “The ban has been a steep net loss to U.S. national security.”

Alliances network, stability and development

Trump has created ambiguity about America’s commitment to its European NATO allies. Although it is fair and important to demand greater contributions from some Allied countries, the U.S. should assert its commitment to NATO Article V if the event of a conflict with any of the NATO countries.

This pledge to defend any country member of the alliance has been the main deterrent against the breakout of another major war in Western Europe. In addition, The US navy has ensured freedom of navigation and the respect of international waters around the world.

Senator Lugar concluded by noting some of the positive effects of U.S. involvement had in global stability and development:

“We have helped to rehabilitate enemies like Germany and Japan, and we initiated co-operative threat reduction to help the former Soviet Union protect and destroy the very nuclear arsenal that was once pointed at us. We have helped countries such as South Korea move from extreme poverty to impressive prosperity through our assistance and protection.”

Full transcript of lecture: Andrew Carnegie Distinguished Lecture on Conflict Prevention with Senator Richard G. Lugar

Are you interested in attending the Foreign Policy Association’s next lecture?

What: Foreign influence operations and counterintelligence
Who: William Evanina, Director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center and Charles McGonigal, FBI Special Agent in Charge of the Counterintelligence Division for the New York Field Office
When: Tuesday, May 9, 6pm to 8pm
Where: Baruch College
William and Anita Newman Conference Center, Room 750 Baruch College Library
151 E 25th Street
New York, NY

Please click here for more information.

The post Isolationism and its Consequences for Conflict Prevention appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro de printemps de Politique étrangère (n°1/2017). Norbert Gaillard propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Yanis Varoufakis, Et les faibles subissent ce qu’ils doivent ? (Les Liens qui Libèrent, 2016, 448 pages).

Yanis Varoufakis, économiste et ministre grec des Finances du gouvernement Tsipras de janvier à juillet 2015, expose ici sa vision de l’Europe et dit tout le mal qu’il pense de l’architecture actuelle de la zone euro.

Si l’auteur consacre le premier tiers du livre à étudier les faiblesses du système monétaire de Bretton Woods, en vigueur de 1944 à 1971, c’est pour mieux illustrer le cœur de son argument : la zone euro n’est qu’une sorte de « Bretton Woods européen », condamnée à s’effondrer car reposant sur des parités fixes rigides, sans aucun mécanisme de recyclage des excédents. La crise que l’Europe traverse depuis 2009 n’aurait donc rien d’une guerre entre cigales méditerranéennes et fourmis germano-nordiques.

Les chapitres consacrés aux vices de conception de la zone euro sont certainement les plus pertinents. Jacques Delors avait compris qu’il fallait une dette et une politique d’investissement communes pour compléter l’Union économique et monétaire (UEM). Non sans cynisme, François Mitterrand lui avait répondu qu’une union politique devait fatalement suivre. Pronostic erroné, et pour cause : depuis l’avènement de la ve République, les élites françaises ont régulièrement cherché à museler l’Allemagne en s’appropriant sa crédibilité monétaire, ce qui a contraint la France à devenir le premier État européen à se soumettre à l’austérité en 1982. La suite était dès lors écrite : l’euro allait inexorablement creuser le fossé entre économies excédentaires et déficitaires. Au passage, on se délectera de l’hommage rendu à Margaret Thatcher, seule dirigeante selon l’auteur à avoir compris la logique centrifuge et apolitique de l’UEM.

Au fil des pages, cependant, le malaise s’installe. La germanophobie de l’auteur transparaît de plus en plus. La mise en place de la zone euro s’apparenterait à la constitution de l’Allemagne prussienne. L’actuel président de la Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, se moquerait de la cohésion de l’union monétaire, tandis que Wolfgang Schaüble, à la tête des finances allemandes depuis 2009, entendrait contrôler les budgets des États membres. Les références aux souffrances subies par le peuple grec au cours de l’occupation nazie pullulent, et les technocraties de Bruxelles et de Francfort sont mêmes qualifiées de « force d’occupation ».

Par ailleurs, on ne peut que déplorer les contradictions de l’auteur et ses analyses très partiales. Il admet à juste titre que l’entrée de son pays dans la zone euro était une erreur historique, et pressent qu’un « Grexit » serait une catastrophe. Il semble néanmoins exonérer ses prédécesseurs de leurs responsabilités. Pourtant, ce sont eux qui ont voulu à tout prix adopter la monnaie unique, puis qui ont été incapables de réformer le système fiscal grec et d’atteindre l’équilibre budgétaire alors que la croissance du PIB dépassait en moyenne 4 % entre 2001 et 2007. Lorsqu’il dénonce la dictature des règles technocratiques, il se garde bien de préciser que si les critères de Maastricht avaient été scrupuleusement respectés à la fin des années 1990, les pays périphériques n’auraient pas été admis dans l’UEM, ce qui leur aurait évité la pire crise économique de l’après-guerre.

En dépit de ses défauts, l’ouvrage est digne d’intérêt, et plusieurs de ses propositions destinées à remodeler l’architecture européenne méritent d’être examinées.

Norbert Gaillard

Pour vous abonner à Politique étrangère, cliquez ici.

(Own report) - Berlin's favorite candidate took the lead in the first round in Sunday's French presidential elections. According to the latest predictions, Emmanuel Macron won with 23.4 percent of the votes, followed by Marine Le Pen of the Front National with 22.6. Macron is expected to win the May 7 runoffs. Initially, the German government had banked on and openly promoted the conservative candidate François Fillon. However, after his approval ratings significantly dropped in the polls, due to the scandal over high payments to his wife as his parliamentary assistant, Berlin was forced to turn to Macron. Like Fillon, Macron is considered "Germany-compatible" by a German think tank, whereas all other candidates are viewed as unsuitable for "constructive cooperation" because of their criticism of the EU and/or of NATO. Recently, Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble ostentatiously recommended voting for Macron. Berlin's interference on behalf of Macron shows once again that German domination of the EU does not stop at national borders, and - according to a well-known EU observer - surpasses by far Russia's feeble meddling in France.

Building resilience for the world&#39s most vulnerable people by reducing poverty, promoting shared prosperity, enhancing food security, and sustaining peace in crisis-affected situations will be the focus of a new partnership framework agreed by the United Nations and World Bank.

Environmental and climate literacy is the engine not only for creating green voters and advancing environmental and climate laws and policies but also for accelerating green technologies and jobs, the United Nations is emphasizing on Mother Earth Day.

The United Nations has welcomed the release and return to their country of 26 Qatari nationals abducted in Muthanna governorate, Iraq, in December 2015.

Noting that a key trigger common to nearly all conflicts is the element of fragility – fragility of States, of institutions, or of societies – United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called for increasing investments in preventative measures that address the problem of fragility before it turns into conflict.

The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Central Africa was relieved to learn that Cameroon President Paul Biya instructed that full internet services be restored in the North-West and South-West Regions of Cameroon.

As the drought intensifies in south and north-eastern Somalia, the United Nations emergency food relief agency today airlifted to Mogadishu enough high-energy biscuits to assist 31,000 people for three days.

New data published by the United Nations health agency has revealed that a vast majority of the estimated 325 million people living with chronic hepatitis B virus or hepatitis C virus infection lack access to life-saving testing and treatment, placing them at a great risk of chronic liver disease, cancer, and even death.