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Bangladeschs politische Neuordnung nach den Parlamentswahlen

SWP - ven, 13/03/2026 - 11:38

Die Parlamentswahlen in Bangladesch am 12. Februar 2026 markierten eine Zäsur in der neueren Geschichte des Landes. Im August 2024 war Premierministerin Sheikh Hasina gestürzt worden, die mit einer Unterbrechung insgesamt 20 Jahre amtiert hatte. Anschließend übernahm eine Interimsregierung unter Führung des Friedensnobelpreisträgers Muhammad Yunus die Amtsgeschäfte. Ihr gelang es nach zwei un­sicheren Jahren, formal ordnungsgemäße Wahlen durchzuführen. Das politische System Bangladeschs hat damit eine hohe institutionelle Resilienz bewiesen. Zugleich wirft das Wahlergebnis neue Fragen auf, was die Zukunft des demokratischen Plura­lismus im Land angeht. So bedeutet der klare Wahlsieg der Nationalistischen Partei Bangladeschs (BNP), dass auch weiterhin eine der beiden historischen Familiendynastien an der Spitze des Landes stehen wird. Stimmenzuwächse erzielte das muslimisch-fundamentalistische Lager, was die gesellschaftliche Rolle der Frauen einschränken und eine Wiederannäherung Bangladeschs an das Nachbarland Indien erschweren könnte.

Why India Is Right to Support the US and Israel in the Iran War

TheDiplomat - ven, 13/03/2026 - 11:38
What good would it do India to hitch itself to the sinking ship of Iran, instead of its actual partners, such as Israel and the UAE?

Claudia Kemfert: „Temporäre Lockerung der Ölsanktionen gegen Russland ist energiepolitischer Kurzschluss“

Wegen der steigenden Öl-Preise lockern die USA vorübergehend die Sanktionen gegen Russland. Claudia Kemfert, Leiterin der Abteilung Energie, Verkehr, Umwelt im DIW Berlin, kommentiert dies wie folgt: 

Die temporäre Lockerung der Ölsanktionen gegen Russland ist energie- und geopolitisch ein falsches Signal. Sanktionen sollen den finanziellen Spielraum für Kriegsführung begrenzen. Wenn sie kurzfristig aufgeweicht werden, stärkt das genau jene fossilen Machtstrukturen, die Konflikte überhaupt erst ermöglichen. Die temporäre Lockerung der Ölsanktionen gegen Russland ist ein klassischer energiepolitischer Kurzschluss: Ein kurzfristiges Markt- oder Preisproblem wird ausgerechnet mit der Energiequelle beantwortet, die das Problem strukturell verursacht hat.

Wir sehen hier erneut das Muster der Fossilokratie: Kurzfristige Interessen am fossilen Energiesystem werden über langfristige sicherheits-, klima- und energiepolitische Ziele gestellt. Das stabilisiert Abhängigkeiten statt sie zu überwinden. Gerade jetzt wäre das Gegenteil notwendig: eine konsequente Reduktion fossiler Abhängigkeiten durch den beschleunigten Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien, Effizienz, Elektrifizierung und resilientere Energiesysteme. Wer Sanktionen gegen fossile Kriegsfinanzierung lockert, begeht einen energiepolitischen Kurzschluss – und verlängert damit die fossile Abhängigkeit und ihre geopolitischen Konflikte.


From Nuuk to Reykjavik: The High North’s geopolitical scramble and the consequences for the EU and its enlargement policy

ELIAMEP - ven, 13/03/2026 - 10:49

The policy brief by Ioannis Alexandris (Research Fellow, Wider Europe Programme – ELIAMEP & Researcher, think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration) and Dimitra Koutouzi (Defence Policy Analyst)From Nuuk to Reykjavik: The High North’s geopolitical scramble and the consequences for the EU and its enlargement policy, was prepared in the framework ELIAMEP’s initiative think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration, supported by the Open Society Foundations – Western Balkans.

This policy brief explores how the rapidly evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic are intersecting with the European Union’s enlargement policy. Heightened strategic competition in the High North—combined with uncertainty surrounding the transatlantic security architecture—has reopened debates in Iceland about reviving its EU accession process. Against this backdrop, the brief examines how a potential Iceland track could reshape the EU’s broader enlargement agenda.

While Iceland represents a relatively “low-friction” candidate due to its deep regulatory alignment with the EU, its potential return to accession negotiations raises important questions about the coherence and credibility of the Union’s enlargement strategy. Progress with an advanced Nordic partner could generate political momentum for enlargement but may also risk overshadowing more politically complex accession processes in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe. Countries that have waited over a decade in the accession queue may perceive accelerated progress for Iceland as evidence of a differentiated enlargement logic driven by geopolitical urgency rather than merit-based conditionality.

The brief therefore situates Iceland within the EU’s evolving enlargement landscape, highlighting how geopolitical considerations—including Arctic security, strategic autonomy, and shifting transatlantic relations—are increasingly shaping accession debates. Ultimately, it argues that the Union must balance strategic opportunities in the North Atlantic with the need to maintain credibility and fairness toward existing candidates, particularly in the Western Balkans. 

You can read the policy brief here.

Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programmes and household resilience in Malawi

One of the main arguments for implementing public works programmes (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programmes themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of programme budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs’ effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi’s Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Programme (CS-EPWP) – a programme recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households’ capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, though further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximise the impact of climate-smart public works programmes, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.

Sophia Schubert is an independent researcher.
Dr Donald Makoka is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Agricultural Research and Development (CARD) of the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) in Malawi.

Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programmes and household resilience in Malawi

One of the main arguments for implementing public works programmes (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programmes themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of programme budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs’ effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi’s Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Programme (CS-EPWP) – a programme recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households’ capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, though further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximise the impact of climate-smart public works programmes, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.

Sophia Schubert is an independent researcher.
Dr Donald Makoka is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Agricultural Research and Development (CARD) of the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) in Malawi.

Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programmes and household resilience in Malawi

One of the main arguments for implementing public works programmes (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programmes themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of programme budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs’ effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi’s Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Programme (CS-EPWP) – a programme recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households’ capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, though further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximise the impact of climate-smart public works programmes, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.

Sophia Schubert is an independent researcher.
Dr Donald Makoka is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Agricultural Research and Development (CARD) of the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) in Malawi.

In Memoriam : ADC Arnaud Frion (7e BCA / TF Narvik)

Le mamouth (Blog) - ven, 13/03/2026 - 10:03

L'adjudant-chef Arnaud Frion a été tué par une frappe de drones dans la nuit du 12 au 13 mars. Dans

Plus d'infos »
Catégories: Défense, France

Ohne weitere Eskalation könnte der Iran-Krieg Erholung der deutschen Wirtschaft nur leicht verlangsamen – Kommunale Investitionen müssen besser unterstützt werden

Iran-Krieg und US-Handelspolitik belasten deutsche Wirtschaft etwas, stoppen aber bisher Aufschwung nicht – Gestiegene Energiepreise dürften Inflation um 0,4 Prozentpunkte erhöhen und Wirtschaftswachstum um 0,1 bis 0,2 Prozentpunkte senken – Expansive Finanzpolitik stützt deutsche Erholung – In ...

EU joint defence procurement

Written by Linda Tothova and Sebastian Clapp.

Joint procurement of defence equipment by the EU has gained renewed strategic importance in response to the recent deteriorating security environment and persistent fragmentation within the European defence market. Although the European Defence Agency set a 35 % collaborative procurement benchmark back in 2007, cooperation among Member States remains limited. The 2022 coordinated annual review on defence reported that only 18 % of defence investment took place collaboratively, far below agreed targets. While total EU defence expenditure reached €381 billion in 2025, increased spending has not translated into commensurate growth in joint acquisition. EU institutions continue to highlight duplication issues, capability gaps and over-reliance on non‑EU suppliers.

To address these shortcomings, the Union has expanded financial and regulatory instruments. EDIRPA, EDIP and SAFE provide grants and loans to incentivise joint procurement, while the defence readiness roadmap 2030 raises the ambition to 40 % joint procurement by 2027. Targeted adjustments to the Defence Procurement Directive aim to reduce administrative barriers and facilitate multinational contracting.

Joint procurement offers potential economies of scale, stronger bargaining leverage, greater industrial predictability and enhanced interoperability. Studies indicate that meeting collaborative benchmarks could generate annual savings of several billion euros. Yet significant constraints persist, including differing threat perceptions by national governments, industrial competition that often runs counter to consolidation, governance complexity and risks of cost overruns in multinational programmes.

The European Parliament has consistently supported deeper pooling and interoperability, urging collaborative acquisition to be prioritised in EU instruments while cautioning against incentives that may reinforce national disparities. Sustained progress therefore depends on credible demand aggregation, coherent defence planning and effective coordination across EU and NATO frameworks.

Read the complete briefing on ‘EU joint defence procurement‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

Catégories: European Union

Indonesia’s Local Content Requirements Are No Shortcut to Industrialization

TheDiplomat - ven, 13/03/2026 - 06:04
Without more accountability and transparency, LCRs will remain a blunt protectionist instrument rather than a true catalyst for industrial transformation.

France/United Kingdom : 'Le Crunch' rubgy face-off fosters ritual DGSE-MI6 meet

Intelligence Online - ven, 13/03/2026 - 06:00
The tradition, started 15 years ago by the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, or MI6) is set to be repeated once again on Saturday at the Stade de France near Paris: each time the French rugby team faces off against [...]

China : The Yin Xi teahouse in Shanghai, where Guoanbu officials mix intimidation with pleasure

Intelligence Online - ven, 13/03/2026 - 06:00
In the dim light of a glass-walled room on the 53rd floor of Shanghai Tower, the bustle of the city [...]

Qatar/Saudi Arabia/UAE : Gulf defences lack ecosystem to deploy Ukrainian interceptor drones

Intelligence Online - ven, 13/03/2026 - 06:00
Faced with the turmoil in the Middle East caused by the Israeli-US offensive in Iran, Gulf monarchies are showing keen [...]

Iran/Yemen : What now for the Houthis in the Red Sea?

Intelligence Online - ven, 13/03/2026 - 06:00
Although Houthi leader Abdelmalek al-Houthi has claimed for the past six days to have had his "finger on the trigger", [...]

China/Italy : Transnational repression: Rome steps up pressure on Beijing

Intelligence Online - ven, 13/03/2026 - 06:00
Intelligence Online has managed to verify the identity of one of eight Chinese nationals targeted by an expulsion order from [...]

Major Southeast Asian Economies Targeted by New US Trade Probes

TheDiplomat - ven, 13/03/2026 - 05:18
Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, the move is likely to create new points of friction in U.S. relations with the region.

How Latin America Failed Venezuela

Foreign Affairs - ven, 13/03/2026 - 05:00
The region’s divisions helped precipitate U.S. intervention.

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