Seit April 2023 herrscht Krieg in Sudan. Er ist Ausdruck grundsätzlicher Veränderungen in den politischen Machtverhältnissen. Der vorher dominierende Sicherheitssektor ist tief gespalten und die ehemals schwach vernetzte Zivilgesellschaft hoch mobilisiert. Einerseits ermöglichte die Konkurrenz innerhalb des Sicherheitssektors, eine zivil-militärische Übergangsregierung zu bilden. Andererseits erhöhte der weitere Aufstieg der Rapid Support Forces zur Macht das Risiko eines bewaffneten Konflikts, erst recht nach dem Putsch 2021. Seit Bashirs Fall 2019 haben die Sicherheitskräfte zweimal vergeblich versucht, eine alleinige Militärherrschaft zu errichten. Gleichwohl scheiterte auch die zivil-militärische Übergangsregierung, weil das Militär nach wie vor über erhebliche Machtressourcen verfügte. Sudans politische Elite trug zu diesem Ausgang bei, indem sie sich zu wenig um den Aufbau rechtsstaatlicher Institutionen und zu viel um die eigene Sichtbarkeit kümmerte. Internationale Akteure, die Sudans Übergangsprozess stärken wollten, hätten die Sicherheitskräfte entschiedener zurückdrängen können, statt sie reflexhaft einzubinden. Viele internationale und sudanesische Bemühungen krankten daran, dass sie entweder nur auf Einbindung oder nur auf Ausschluss der Sicherheitskräfte abstellten. Ein neuer Elitendeal allein mit Sudans Gewaltunternehmern wird keinen Frieden bringen, solange keine zivilen Kräfte am Tisch sitzen. Sudans beste Chance liegt vielmehr im Sozialkapital des freiwilligen Engagements seiner Bürger:innen für humanitäre Versorgung, Demokratie und lokale Versöhnung.
As the demands on German foreign and security policy increase in a Europe characterised by multiple crises, so do the demands on the German armed forces. In order for the Bundeswehr to become more assertive and effective as a deterrent, despite limiting factors such as personnel and materiel shortages, it must be able to employ new technologies more quickly and extensively. The faster and more effectively these technologies are harnessed, the more advantages they will bring on the battlefield. The current political will for change, the pressure to adapt due to the evolved security situation and the increase in financial resources are creating an unprecedented momentum.
The following is the conclusion of the second interview with Dr. Harold Rhode.
The idea of a two-state solution being pushed by the US State Department does not attract the Palestinian Arabs. They are not interested in the benefits Arabs have in Israel as opposed to in the surrounding states.
So why did the Palestinian Arabs sign the Oslo Accords?
Signatures on documents do not mean much in Arab culture. Two weeks after the signing of the Oslo Agreement, Arafat spoke at a mosque in South Africa. He told his listeners he did not sign a peace agreement with Israel. It was a truce. He compared the Oslo Accords to the ten-year truce their prophet Muhammad signed at Hudaybiya (near Mecca) with his enemies, the Qureysh.
Two years later, when Muhammad realized he was stronger than his enemies, he attacked and conquered Mecca -- so much for the 10-year truce with his enemy. Similarly, on October 7, 2023, Hamas and Iran saw Israel as divided and weak. But they miscalculated because this wasn’t Hudaybiya. They did not understand Israel’s internal fortitude.
But all is not lost when it comes to Israel-Arab relations.
Muslims can sign agreements with their opponents which –- unlike the Hudaybiya truce –- can be periodically renewed when they believe it is in their interests. Netanyahu knew that once they needed what Israel had to offer -- such as hi-tech, security, and investments -- the Arabs would be the ones reaching out for an agreement.
This is the reason why the Abraham Accords were signed.
Moreover, Muslims respect power. When President Trump killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran became relatively quiet, except for some small probing attacks. We saw this also in Iran's reaction to President Ronald Reagan before he came into office. Forty-five minutes before Reagan took the oath of office, Iran put the US hostages on a plane to freedom. Iran saw Reagan as a cowboy who would destroy them.
You can make things happen once you understand the Muslim respect for power.
In comparison, a compromise is a blot on your honor. In the Muslim world, compromise is a sign of weakness, encouraging others to strike back at you even harder. You cannot give in. The Americans have not yet learned the Muslim concept of compromise.
Concepts are not the same as words. Anybody can look up a word in a dictionary and translate it the way you like. We assume a concept means the same thing in every language. But cultures don't communicate -- they clash.
I once asked an Arab friend how he would translate the word "compromise." He thought about it for a week and came back to me. He said the closest he could get to it in Arabic was a word with the root N-Z-L. We both laughed because in Hebrew that root means "a runny nose." In Arabic, it means to get off your camel -- the common idea being to go down, that you humiliate yourself. That is what the Western concept of compromise means in Arabic.
Compromise means humiliation.
That is why there can be no two-state solution. At best, it would be a temporary solution, but it will be like Gaza: they will take what you give them and then use it against you. An agreement might be renewed over and over, but it is not designed to last and there is always the possibility it will fall apart. There may be others who will be better allies, especially if they are also Arabs and in the same clan. It is not a nice way to live, but then again, there is no such thing as peace.
That doesn't mean we cannot have long periods of quiet.
Az ukrajnai háború eseményeit figyelve nem lehet elmenni a Jevgenyij Pirgozsin nevével fémjelzett – és vele gyakorlatilag eggyé váló – Wagner katonai magánvállalat mellett, amely a szíriai és afrikai műveletei után legnagyobb eredményeit pont abban az Ukrajnában szerezte meg, amely 2014-ben szülőhelyéül szolgált. A Wagner 2022-től kezdve számos számos front mentén, de leginkább Bahmut ostromakor mérettette meg magát. Popasznaja, Liszicsanszk és Szoledar elfoglalásával a Wagner „brand” legendává vált a front mindkét oldalán, amelyet tovább emelt Prigozsinék 9 hónapos teljesítménye a bahmuti húsdarálóban. Utóbbit végül csak a finálét jelentő 2023. júniusi „Igazság menete” tudta megtörni, amely végső soron Prigozsin és az addig ismert Wagner végét hozta el magával. De, antik görög drámához hasonlóan a Wagner-eposz esetében sem maradhatott el a katartikus lezárás Prigozsin 2023. augusztusi, máig tisztázatlan légikatasztrófájával.
Ebben a helyzetben kapcsolódunk be a meglepően nagy érdeklődést keltő Legjobbak a pokolban című akciófilmhez. Maga a film még 2022 októberében jelent meg Jevgenyij Prigozsin személyes finanszírozása és közreműködése mellett. Ez sem véletlen, hisz még bukása előtt Prigozsin egy nagyobb szentpétervári központú médiabirodalommal rendelkezett, így pontosan értette és tudta, mi szükséges a Wagner körüli mítosz további fejlesztéséhez. A cím egyben a Wagner nem hivatalos – de szintén Prigozsintól származó – szlogenjének a parafrázisa, amely szerint „bár mind a pokolra kerülünk, de a pokolban is mi leszünk a legjobbak”.