Dijsselbloem, left, with Spanish rival de Guindos during a eurogroup meeting in December
The second quarter of 2015 will not only bring a crescendo in the ongoing Greek crisis for the 19 eurozone finance ministers who make up the eurogroup, which must ultimately decide whether Athens gets the bailout funds it needs to avoid bankruptcy. It will also trigger something nearly as closely-watched by EU insiders: an active race to head the group.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who was the surprise pick to preside over the powerful committee when he was plucked from obscurity just weeks after national elections pushed his party into government in late 2012, will see his two-and-a-half year term end in July.
Unusually for such high-profile EU posts, both Dijsselbloem and his leading challenger, Spanish finance minister Luis de Guindos, have publicly declared their interest in the job. Indeed, de Guindos received a very public, full-throated endorsement from his prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, at last month’s EU summit in Brussels.
Although the politicking hasn’t really begun in earnest yet – the group is somewhat preoccupied with Greece at the moment – the Brussels Blog has talked to a handful of insiders to gauge where the race stands. Most believe it will come down to a political showdown between the EU’s two main pan-European party groups, the centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Party of European Socialists.
Here’s how most are handicapping it now – plus a few dark horses who could emerge if the two men cancel each other out.
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This article initially appeared in the 7th issue of European Defence Matters, the magazine of the European Defence Agency.
Click here to access the full digital edition
Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq… The Cold War aftermath has seen European armed forces engaged in a wide variety of operational commitments around the globe, vastly expanding the set of missions they have to conduct. “Nowadays, soldiers often operate among civilian populations in a set of missions ranging from emergency humanitarian relief to crowd and riot control, counter-insurgency and interposition between warring factions”, Jean Michelin, detached to the EDA as an intern from France and acting as Project Officer Engage, points out. But in these complex and demanding situations, the soldier on the ground can no longer rely on the sole use of his weapon if he wants to avoid a catastrophic escalation of violence; somewhere in the broad range of requirements that have fallen on the shoulders of modern armed forces, the need for non-lethal capabilities (NLC) has emerged.
For western armed forces, the Kosovo conflict acted as an eye-opening experience in that regard. “In 1999/2000, we had to resort to using non-lethal capabilities during our mission in the city of Mitrovica, where Austrian units were deployed within German, British and French troops in order to prevent the escalation of riots”, Colonel Erich Weissenböck, Deputy Head of the Force Development Division in the Austrian Ministry of Defence, explains. “As soldiers were attacked with stones and explosives, they used wire barriers and other tactics to try and contain the threat. But eventually they had to use tear gas, shotguns and even snipers to stop the demonstrators”, he adds.
With today’s military experience from various theaters of operation around the globe, non-lethal capabilities could be regarded as a logical step forward for military expeditionary forces, especially when operating under the UN flag and the blue helmet – and yet, somehow, their development has been very slow. Currently, apart from the notable crowd and riot control era experienced by NATO forces in Kosovo, they are virtually non-existent in land forces across the globe, despite an identified shortfall.
“To ensure that a potential threat doesn’t enter a protected perimeter, or to deter an angry crowd from approaching a compound, it often boils down to the use of the warning shot, which is most of the time impractical and dangerous, let alone can lead to collateral damage”, stresses Jean Michelin, who is also a French Army officer with significant operational experience. “Moreover, using conventional weapons in a non-lethal manner will usually deter a potential hostile action by an individual, but its impact on a crowd is less reliable, especially when there is a threat of violence escalation”, he adds.
But land forces are not the only ones who might benefit from the development of NLC. The EU-led counter-piracy operation Atalanta conducted off the Somali coast has demonstrated the need for naval forces to neutralise potential pirates before they can attack nearby commercial ships. “In combination with audible or visual warnings, non-lethal weapons provide a stand-off with regards to the threat, thus allowing to identify the real intentions of a potential adversary”, Colonel Weissenböck details.
With an identified capability gap on one hand and a proven operational need on the other, ten Member States (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden) expressed in October 2007 their will to set up a dedicated NLC project team under the framework of the European Defence Agency. Over the last seven years, and under a proactive chairmanship from Austria, the project team focussed on four main strands of work, starting with a development of a NLC concept by the EU Military Staff (EUMS), in synergy with similar efforts previously conducted under a NATO framework.
The project team also dealt with information exchange between Member States, so as to provide them with a forum to remain aware of national initiatives in terms of procurements, cooperation potential, interoperability as well as research and technology (R&T). The effects of non-lethal capabilities were also explored, with a specific attention on legal issues and the medical impact of NLCs.
Perhaps the most visible output of the project team’s work in the field of NLCs, two R&T studies are conducted in order to assess technologies available for future non-lethal weapon systems. “Based on operational experience, a need for longer-range capabilities has already been identified”, explains Colonel Erich Weissenböck, who also happens to be the Chairman of EDA’s NLC project team. “Additional applications, such as the protection of vehicles and convoys, also need to be explored”, he points out. While one of the studies focuses on microwave-based NLC systems, the other explores optical and acoustic solutions.
These two studies help to provide a comprehensive picture of the current state-of-play regarding NLC technology development, as well as of the challenges arising in research. “For example, the technology to direct a non-lethal energy beam at a hostile individual already exists”, Jean Michelin underlines. “However, it is still far from the technology-readiness level needed to integrate it into a portable, easily deployable, autonomous and ruggedized device that would match basic operational requirements”, he adds.
Although it is still being discussed, the project team’s next step could be the identification of NLC equipment opportunities for Member States, as well as the definition of a set of common requirements based on the available technology and an agreed concept of operation. “This in turn could lead to the establishment of a common project whose exact scope will have to be decided by the Member States”, Jean Michelin underlines.
The end objective is to provide European soldiers with a common tactical doctrine and even a common set of tools when it comes to NLC operations, thus greatly increasing their effectiveness and interoperability. But this will not be a quick win. “In contemporary operations like in cooperative capability development, the only lasting achievements require commitment, caution, time and effort”, the French army officer points out. “It is through small victories and determination that we will succeed in reaching our objective, however far it may seem.”
This article originally appeared in YaleGlobal Online.
Blogs continue to wield influence; governments and bloggers could coordinate on regulations to increase the potential.
The internet and global interconnectivity, while often taken for granted, has changed the face of social reality. Weblogs, more commonly known as blogs, have emerged and in many ways manifest both extremes of positive and negative potential.
Because blogs have tremendous potential to be used either for good or ill, they could be dubbed a new avatar of a power group supplementing the old. The modern expression of the separation of powers in the executive, legislative and judicial branches became known as the three estates, later to be followed by a “fourth estate” in the form of the media. The designation has often been contested simply because the media does not implement policy or mandate particular activity, yet these criticisms miss the larger point. The essence of “estates” as used here refers to sources of power.
When the term “fourth estate” was coined by Edmund Burke and referred to by Thomas Carlyle, their astute observation was that the press had come to wield an equal or occasionally greater power to influence policy than the original three state powers.
The internet multiplied this power, providing the possibility for previously unheard voices to gain an audience as well as provide another check on the power of the other estates. This led me in 2007 to designate blogs as the fifth estate .
The revelations of Edward Snowden via WikiLeaks are a resounding example. The evidence he provided about the extent and mechanisms of US state surveillance have sparked overdue global discussions about the limits of privacy in the age of the Internet, as well as closer investigations into the legal and technical aspects of spying and surveillance. Blogs have emerged almost imperceptibly, especially as so much content is non-political. Still, blogs nonetheless represent a tremendous capacity for the masses to disseminate information, encouraging public participation and interest in politics, and opinions, which in many countries can be openly expressed without censorship, barriers or editorial boards. This realization has started to cause anxiety in some countries that have a poor record of civil liberties. In China, for instance, blogs like “China Change” have emerged as sources of news and commentaries on human rights and civil society issues in the country.
Blogs have been bolstered by more frequent contributions from experts and shown themselves to be the least constrained forum. Examples come from established journalists, members of parliaments, and political parties from different ends of the political spectrum or key figures in global politics such as John Kerry .
In a hyper-capitalist environment dominated by media giants, the means available to independent journalism have narrowed considerably. The advent of blogs has reinvigorated such possibilities of independence, giving not only journalists but anyone with access to the internet the capacity to express views and disseminate information. At the same time, some adverse effects have been recorded as so-called netizens and bloggers covering political events or revolutions in real time later became targets of backlash. Recently Avijit Roy, an influential Bangladeshi-born American blogger, was hacked to death in Dhaka. He was a persistent critic of the Islamist radicals.
As a mechanism of positive policy reform, blogs continue to face challenges:
How the blogosphere tends to be perceived: Despite general acknowledgment that freedom from influence or constraint of major media channels or ideological bias is a favorable quality, blogs often suffer from the concern that their authors lack journalistic experience or other relevant credentials.
bsence of oversight: Questions are raised about blogs’ lack of editorial review and insufficient fact-checking mechanisms. Such shortcomings leave readers in a dilemma. Yet well-researched and reviewed information from dominant media outlets can be prone to biases, too. Doubts can also emerge by the perception of the blogosphere as a source of entertainment and “light” information, rather than contributor of serious content. Further issues of credibility arise also as some bloggers joined programs like the “paid blogger program” where they commit to endorse companies or products in exchange for money.
A source of polarized views: Without oversight and checks, blogs can serve morally dubious intentions by those who aim to spread propaganda, radicalize readers or exacerbate antagonisms. For readers who deliberately seek out only blogs that reinforce their views without checks, such content ceases to become a source of understanding.
Sensitive or dangerous information: Blogs can disrupt society, business and government activities, such as by disclosures of secret information . Apple Computers, for instance, reportedly filed a lawsuit against bloggers who communicated confidential company information on their blogs. Other blogs disseminate information or blueprints for constructing weapons of mass destruction or propagate anarchist messages . All of these concerns would be ruled out in more traditional media sources by journalistic integrity and institutional checks.
A primary countermeasure to these negative implications is education. The ways in which readers encounter and relate to information is dramatically influenced by their education as well as their awareness of the pitfalls relating to the information source.
Furthermore, serious bloggers should welcome expert guest commentary, critical feedback and open dialogue in their blogs. Only through education and critical engagement can readers become more demanding and circumspect, which in turn improves the quality of blogs.
The question of oversight-free authorship remains the prevailing concern, and people must become critical readers with a heightened sensitivity to unjustified positions or unsubstantiated claims.
Other regulatory steps are also necessary to limit the extreme abuses of blogs. The question of absolute anonymity has a downside from the viewpoint of global security. Anonymity can protect activists working in the world’s most brutal areas, but can also allow rogues or criminals to spread ideas without being easily tracked.
Governments must combat bloggers engaging in deliberately radicalizing rhetoric, employing hate speech, or engaging in criminal activity including human trafficking or pornography.
These recommendations might raise concerns about censorship and rights to free speech, but just as there are reasonable limits to free speech in public life, the same logic and amount of regulation should be applied in the digital domain. There are inherent difficulties about establishing such limits in an even-handed way yet this should not mean that these limits should not be sought and imposed.
The blogosphere must function as an extension of the public space, where people can be held accountable and liable for their actions as well as potentially investigated for threats of violence or criminal activity. Nevertheless, the plurality of legal systems and many interpretations of freedom of speech or hate speech remains a persistent challenge in the blogosphere. Conundrums are bound to arise as the internet is a global medium and the removal of some content will be problematic especially if the servers are located in countries where those messages are not illegal. As an information stream that reveals public opinion largely free from outside influence, the capacity of blogs for shaping attitudes positively is tremendous. Governments must ensure that the power of blogs is cultivated and implemented in collaborative ways, with a view to preserve peace and human dignity. Contributors, too, must become more proactive and committed to integrity and responsible content. The idea of a bloggers’ code of ethics , proposed a few years ago, deserves renewed consideration.
Undoubtedly, the future of information holds high potential for blogs. Their political relevance is only expected to expand.
The question is not whether or not the influence of the fifth estate will increase, but what form this influence will take and what regulatory mechanisms are necessary to implement to cultivate blogs’ positive potential.
Czesław Mroczek, Secretary of State in the Polish Ministry of National Defence, visited the European Defence Agency today for discussions with Chief Executive Jorge Domecq. They exchanged views on the preparation of the European Council on defence in June 2015 as well as the cooperation between Poland and EDA.
During the meeting, Jorge Domecq confirmed his personal commitment to working closely with the Member States and thanked Poland for its involvement in some of the Agency’s flagship programmes: the Multi-Role Tanker Transport project, research on Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems, as well as the GovSatcom preparation phase. Poland is among others also actively involved in the Improvised Explosive Devices Detection Programme, SESAR and various industry and market related work strands. Mr Domecq and Mr Mroczek also exchanged views on support to defence industry in Central and Eastern Part of Europe and the importance of security of supply.
Jorge Domecq will visit Poland on 20 April on his series of visits to all EDA Member States.