European Union

When Martin Schulz resigned as president of the European Parliament to return to German politics, many British saw that as removing an opponent of Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s goal of the UK having its cake and eating it too, that is, gaining generous special terms when it leaves the European Union. The bad news is that Schulz is not leaving European politics. On Sunday he was named leader of the German Socialist Party (SPD) and will be the chief challenger of the current Chancellor, Angela Merkel, at the German election in September.

Even if Angela Merkel succeeds in maintaining her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) as the largest group in the German Bundestag, she will need to form a coalition in order to retain office as Chancellor because the country’s proportional representation system prevents any party from gaining an absolute majority.

As the second largest party in the German Bundestag, the SPD is the only coalition partner available to the CDU. Both parties are almost certain to lose seats in the Bundestag to the anti-immigration Alternative for Deutschland, but remain large enough to form another coalition government. In that case Schulz will be in line to receive the post of German Foreign Minister, normally reserved for the second partner in a coalition. This will make him a major voice in Parliament and in discussions with Angela Merkel about how the German government responds to British demands for EU concessions.

If Schulz becomes Germany’s new foreign minister, he will meet his British opposite number at regular meetings of the EU’s foreign secretaries. He can offer Boris Johnson a piece of Black Forest cake and ask BoJo to demonstrate his trick of eating the cake and still having it on the plate. If he can’t work his magic, then Schulz can eat the cake himself and leave BoJo with nothing but an empty plate to show for his too clever by half comment.

Of course, Schulz may not become foreign minister: he may end up as the head of a left wing German coalition government. This could happen if a combination of SPD, Green and Left parties MPs gain a majority of seats. The SPD would then have a choice of remaining a junior partner of Angela Merkel or taking control of government. Choosing to form a left-wing coalition government would satisfy many SPD members who have felt the loss of power and votes as a junior partner in Merkel’s CDU-led government.

If Schulz became Chancellor then BoJo would be saved an embarrassing encounter demonstrating that his magic only applies to words, not real objects. As Chancellor, Schulz would then be Theresa May’s opposite number. Moreover, his presence would be the biggest presence in meetings of the European Council, where 27 heads of EU member states will decide what terms, if any, the EU will offer for Britain’s post-Brexit relations with Europe.

How likely is it that Schulz could replace Angela Merkel?  Opinion polls currently show the total vote of three left parties averaging at the same level as the combined vote of the CDU/CSU plus Free Democrats. The complexities involved in awarding seats in a German electoral system, plus the complexities of arriving at a coalition pact needed to form a government, make it impossible to forecast the outcome. It’s too early to tell. At the moment, Schulz has less of a chance of becoming Chancellor than Merkel has of remaining Chancellor. On the other hand, his chance appears better than that of Donald Trump a year ago.

Downing Street has been working on the assumption that Theresa May will be dealing with Angela Merkel throughout the Brexit process. It is possible that this could produce a ‘pig’ of a Brexit compromise that would satisfy both sides. British negotiators could bring home enough bacon to satisfy meat-eating Tories while leaving lots of Black Forest ham on the table to satisfy hefty German appetites.

It is easy to deal with any Downing Street spokespersons claiming with certainty that Angela Merkel will remain the friendly face backing Britain in EU deliberations next winter. Just ask them: How is Theresa May getting on with President Hilary Clinton?

Bon Appétit.

By Professor Richard Rose, author of Representing Europeans: a Pragmatic Approach and a commissioning fund awardee of The UK in a Changing Europe. It updates a blog he posted on this website on 29 November captioned:  “Another Nail in the Coffin of a Soft Brexit?”

The post German election threatens Bojo’s diet appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

Plenary sessions : Ahead of the informal European Council meeting of 3 February, MEPs will debate the current growing migratory pressure in the central Mediterranean with EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on Wednesday afternoon at around 17.00, following the addition of this item to the plenary agenda.

Source : © European Union, 2017 - EP

Plenary sessions : Ahead of the informal European Council meeting of 3 February, MEPs will debate the current growing migratory pressure in the central Mediterranean with EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on Wednesday afternoon at around 17.00, following the addition of this item to the plenary agenda.

Source : © European Union, 2017 - EP

On 6 February, the SEDE committee invites Herbert Salber, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia, EEAS, Natalie Sabanadze, Ambassador of Georgia to the EU and Amanda Paul, Senior Policy Analyst, European Policy Centre, Brussels, to discuss the new developments in the increasing Russian influence in the South Caucasus.
Further information
Draft agenda and meeting documents
Source : © European Union, 2017 - EP

Place:     Europa building, Brussels
Chair:     Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy

All times are approximate and subject to change

+/- 08.30
Arrivals (live streaming)
VIP entrance, Europa building

+/- 09.30 (ttbc)
Doorstep by High Representative Federica Mogherini
VIP entrance, Europa building

+/- 10.00
Beginning of the meeting (Roundtable)
Adoption of the agenda
Approval of non-legislative A items

+/- 10.15
Ukraine
Libya

+/- 13.00
Working lunch: Egypt

+/- 15.00
Middle East Peace Process

+/- 16.30
Press conference by Federica Mogherini (live streaming)
Main press room, Justus Lipsius building

RECOMMENDATION on the draft Council decision on the conclusion of the Framework Agreement on Partnership and Cooperation between the European Union and its Member States, of the one part, and Mongolia, of the other part
Committee on Foreign Affairs
Helmut Scholz

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

REPORT containing a motion for a non-legislative resolution on the draft Council decision on the conclusion of the Framework Agreement on Partnership and Cooperation between the European Union and its Member States, of the one part, and Mongolia, of the other part
Committee on Foreign Affairs
Helmut Scholz

Source : © European Union, 2016 - EP

Parliament and Council negotiators agreed on wholesale price caps on Tuesday evening. Caps are significantly lower than those proposed by the Commission. Wholesale price caps define how much telecoms operators can charge each other for using their networks to carry cross-border “roaming” calls.
Committee on Industry, Research and Energy

Source : © European Union, 2017 - EP

Parliament and Council negotiators agreed on wholesale price caps on Tuesday evening. Caps are significantly lower than those proposed by the Commission. Wholesale price caps define how much telecoms operators can charge each other for using their networks to carry cross-border “roaming” calls.
Committee on Industry, Research and Energy

Source : © European Union, 2017 - EP

EU Council President Donald Tusk has described the new US administration as a factor of uncertainty, citing it alongside Russia, the Middle East and China. Europe can no longer count on good relations with the US, commentators concur, calling on the EU to close ranks and defend the values of the West.

Despite several days of protests on the streets and the opposition of President Iohannis Romania's government has pushed through the controversial decrees which are seen as a bitter setback in the fight against corruption. Abuses of office concerning less than 50,000 euros will go unpunished, with several members of the government standing to benefit from the new legislation. Romania's press is incensed but sees the demonstrations by Romanian citizens as a small consolation.

The rapid ascent of the French conservative presidential candidate François Fillon has come to an abrupt end following reports that he got his wife Penelope Fillon a fake job as a parliament aide for which she received almost a million euros in total. Fillon, who was the favourite to win the election before the scandal broke, has seen his approval ratings plummet. Observers fear that Marine Le Pen will benefit most from the affair.