Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Sechs Jahre nach Abschluss des Pariser Klimaabkommens im Jahr 2015 steigen die globalen Treibhausgasemissionen weiter an, allein im Jahr 2018 auf 55 Gigatonnen. Zwar stagnieren die Emissionen der OECD-Staaten inzwischen, sie bleiben aber pro Kopf weit höher als im Rest der Welt. Gleichzeitig steigen die Emissionen der Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer weiter an, auf gegenwärtig bereits rund zwei Drittel der jährlichen globalen Treibhausgasemissionen. Ohne drastisches Gegensteuern laufen wir auf eine globale Erwärmung von mehr als 3 Grad zu. Damit gefährden wir Wohlstand und Entwicklungschancen weltweit, mit dramatischem Verlust von Biodiversität und Lebensräumen. Die UN-Klimakonferenz COP 26, die vom 31. Oktober bis zum 12. November im schottischen Glasgow tagt, soll Abhilfe schaffen. Sie muss zeigen, dass die internationale Klimapolitik handlungs- und funktionsfähig ist. Die Erwartungen an die britische COP-Präsidentschaft sind hoch. Es müssen in Glasgow Lösungen gefunden werden – insbesondere hinsichtlich der „Marktmechanismen“ wie dem internationalen Handel mit Emissionszertifikaten.

Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel wird heute nach Griechenland reisen. Dazu ein Statement von Alexander S. Kritikos, Leiter der Forschungsgruppe Entrepreneurship am Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) sowie Mitglied im Vorstand:

Auf ihrer Abschiedstournee durch Europa besucht Kanzlerin Angela Merkel nun auch Griechenland – zu Recht! In den 16 Jahren ihrer Kanzlerschaft haben die Entscheidungen beider Regierungen die wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Entwicklung des jeweils anderen Landes so stark beeinflusst wie nie zuvor. Griechenlands im Jahr 2008 beginnende Staatsschuldenkrise, die Öffnung der Grenzen in Griechenland für Flüchtlinge im Jahr 2015 und der jüngste Türkei-Griechenland-Konflikt sind dafür nur drei Beispiele. Merkels wichtigster Beitrag lag zweifelsohne im aktiven Krisenmanagement, das den „europäischen Laden“ am Laufen hält. Das hat sich vor allem im Jahr 2015 gezeigt. Ohne ihr besonnenes Eingreifen hätte sich die griechische Geschichte seit diesem Schicksalsjahr womöglich anders entwickelt, wenn sich der Grexit und der Bankrott des ganzen Landes eingestellt hätten. Merkel setzte sich jedoch für den Verbleib Griechenlands in der Eurozone und den Erhalt des Euroraums ein – auch gegen Widerstände in der eigenen Regierung, ebenso wie gegen die Meinung eines Teils der deutschen Medien und der Bevölkerung in Deutschland. Dies verdient uneingeschränkt Anerkennung.

Carlos Malamud y Rogelio Núñez. ARI 88/2021 - 28/10/2021

La crisis de la democracia en el mundo actual no es un fenómeno exclusivamente europeo o estadounidense y su onda expansiva se extiende también en América Latina, como muestra lo que ocurre en América Central y el Caribe (El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua y Haití) y América del Sur (Venezuela, Bolivia y Brasil). El autoritarismo hoy se extiende por países tan disímiles como Rusia, China, Turquía y Filipinas.

Die Ergebnisse der heutigen Sitzung des Rates der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) kommentiert Marcel Fratzscher, Präsident des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), wie folgt:

Die EZB hält an ihrem geldpolitischen Kurs fest, obwohl die Zeichen in den USA und in Großbritannien auf ein schnelleres Ende der expansiven Geldpolitik hindeuten. Aber aufgeschoben ist nicht aufgehoben. Ich erwarte, dass die EZB im Dezember das Ende ihres Anleihenkaufprogramms PEPP bekannt geben wird und auch die Anleihenkäufe 2022 schneller als erwartet reduzieren wird.
Die deutlich höhere Inflation ist zwar nicht unerwartet, sie stellt die EZB jedoch vor die schwierige Herausforderung, Menschen und Märkte davon zu überzeugen, dass diese Erhöhung temporär sein wird. Die meisten Prognosen deuten darauf hin, dass auch in Deutschland spätestens ab 2023 die Inflation wieder unter zwei Prozent liegen wird. Trotzdem ist Vorsicht geboten, denn die Unsicherheit ist groß und die EZB muss sich vorbereiten, schnell auf unerwartete Entwicklungen reagieren zu können.

Russland will ein hohes Maß selbstbestimmter Stabilität in der Arktis erhalten. Das hält Moskau für nötig, um die vielen Probleme und Entwicklungshindernisse zu überwinden, die mit den eigenen ambitionierten Plänen, aber auch mit den Folgen des Klimawandels verbunden sind. Der Rückgang des Meereises hat einen subjektiv empfundenen Verlust an Sicherheit zur Folge, der die traditionelle Belagerungsmentalität verstärkt. Zudem ist die russische Außenpolitik auch in der Arktis von einem reflex­artigen Primat der Sicherheitspolitik gekennzeichnet. Moskau versucht, die nationale Sicherheit inklusive wirtschaftlicher Inter­essen mit einem breiten Spektrum rüstungs- und militärpolitischer Akti­vitäten zu gewährleisten, das neue nukleare Einsatzmittel einschließt. Dieses Bestreben werten die anderen Arktisanrainer und die Nato zuneh­mend als bedrohlich. Russland nimmt eine defensive Haltung in der Arktis ein, ist im Konfliktfall aber auf eine rasche Eskalation vorbereitet. Arktispolitik ist ein Mittel der russischen Strategie für Europa, um wirt­schaftlich und politisch Einfluss zu nehmen. Dabei wird das Zusammenwirken von Nord- und Ostseeflotte immer wichtiger, wenn es darum geht, geostrategische Interessen zu wahren und das Hoheitsgebiet zu verteidigen. Die arktischen Staaten müssen eine schwierige Balance halten: Sie wollen die Seewege und Ressourcen sichern, zugleich aber eine Eskalations­spirale in der Region verhindern. Um die Folgen des Sicherheitsdilemmas zu begrenzen, sollte der Dialog über militärische Sicherheit reaktiviert werden. Zudem gibt es weiterhin Kooperationsmöglichkeiten. Beispiele sind Klima- und Umweltprojekte, nachhaltige und umweltverträgliche Energienutzung, Infrastruktur, maritime Sicherheit und Wissenschafts­zusammenarbeit.

Relations between Turkey and Russia are a puzzle to many in the West. How sustainable is the relationship? What is it grounded on? And what can the West learn from it? Central to the relationship is its bilateral nature. Relations between Ankara and Moscow are based on the mutual recognition of security interests. The resulting dynamics have shaped Turkish-Russian cooperation since the 1990s and can be observed in the current partnership in Syria. Mutual regard for the other’s security concerns is facilitated by the prospect of collaborative projects that promise greater advantages than continued conflict. Trust is of secondary importance, as is the quality of personal relations between the Turkish and Russian presidents. More important is the interdependence between Russia and Turkey. The potential for confrontation or cooperation between Ankara and Moscow in regional conflicts depends on current priorities rather than past rivalries. The form and extent of their collaboration are determined not by which side of the conflict they are on, but by their respective motives.

Independent reviews are a relatively new but increasingly popular tool. Since the practice was established in 2017, there have been nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations. These reviews have been intended to rigorously assess the strategic orientation of peace operations while providing more political credibility than UN-led review processes. But given the diverse processes and incentives that shape them, these exercises are both analytically complex and highly political. As independent reviews have gained prominence over the past five years, reflecting on the experiences of previous reviews is necessary for improving their quality, impact, and sustainability moving forward.

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations conducted between 2017 and 2021 by considering emerging trends, best practices, and lessons observed. It begins by juxtaposing the emergence of independent reviews with an increasingly fractured geopolitical landscape for UN peace operations and introducing these reviews’ distinguishing features and objectives. It then analyzes how independent reviews have unfolded in practice across seven different dimensions. The paper concludes by presenting findings about the practice and future of independent reviews and developing criteria to distinguish between UN-led and independent reviews. It also offers recommendations to the UN system, member states, and independent review teams to improve the practice:

• The UN system should codify independent reviews within formal UN policy, consolidate best practices, clarify roles and expectations of UN staff seconded to review teams, prioritize diversity in the composition of review teams, improve reporting on independent reviews, and establish a dedicated funding stream for independent reviews.
• Independent review teams should emphasize their transparency and independence, build internal and external constituencies, systematize their use of diverse research methods and approaches, and embrace the support provided by “red teams.”
• Member states should treat independent reviews as exceptional instead of standard, debrief team leaders following the submission of an independent review, request a formal briefing on strategic reviews and assessments, strengthen reporting requirements on the implementation of review recommendations, and provide ample time for conducting independent reviews.

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Illustrated page from Sara Ghannoum’s new book “Tom Alien and the Plastic Mess”

In the leadup to the United Nations upcoming Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, better known as COP26, IPI MENA hosted a webinar on October 27, 2021, entitled “MENA’s Youth and Environment,” to highlight the importance of involving and educating youth regarding environmental issues.

Moderated by Dalya Alawi, Policy Analyst, the event featured a reading by three-time children’s book author, Ms. Sara Ghannoum, to students in classrooms from Bahrain, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates.

IPI MENA Director Nejib Friji pointed to how “young people are engaging with climate and biodiversity science and policy in a way that previous generations haven’t.” He added, “the aim must not be just to educate, but to also inspire and engage the children in bringing a positive behavioral change.” Such steps are necessary in order to create a positive cycle and generation of climate activists dedicated to sustainable development, he stated.

Ms. Ghannoum’s new book “Tom Alien and the Plastic Mess,” is devoted to raising awareness on the dangerous effects of environmental pollution amongst children. Following her reading, she recalled a short anecdote of her 6-year-old son’s reaction to her book, to demonstrate how youth-led action is significant for the fight against climate change. As the future generation, “we need their drive and creativity to take action and solve the environmental mess we have created.”

Her reading was followed by a question-and-answer segment, raised by the young participants, which revolved around how to start the recycling conversation with adults, which items were recyclable, and what they can do to start making a change. Throughout her responses, Ghannoum addressed their concerns, and encouraged the students to educate those around them, and to “keep raising your concern, and don’t give up!”

In his remarks, Executive Director of British School Bahrain, Mr. John Maguire commended the school’s ‘eco warriors’, an initiative spearheaded by students to raise awareness and take action in ensuring all members of the school community – pupils, teachers, and parents – are more environmentally friendly. He also noted the school’s community-driven initiatives, such as beach clean-ups, where they are partnering with private companies to recycle and renew the collected materials. In addition to plastic waste, Mr. Maguire also shed light on the school’s commitments to reduce food waste.

H.E. Muhammad Ayub, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Bahrain, explained how “as the world’s fifth-youngest country, with youth comprising 53% of the population, making Pakistan green and clean is a priority.” He shared his country’s vulnerability to climate change, and their campaign to plant 10 billion trees by 2028, reiterating how “youth are the vanguards of this movement,” and their crucial role globally, to help our world.

Similarly, German Ambassador Kai Boeckmann shared an example from his country, where it is becoming an increasingly common practice, and importantly so, for young people to hold politicians and other leaders in society to account, especially with regard to climate action. He referred to one of the most viewed television shows during Germany’s ongoing elections, was where children aged 10-12 years old were being posed to candidates.

Mounir Bouchenaki, Advisor to Bahrain Authority for Culture and Antiquities and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), recited UNESCO’s purpose to conserve both the world’s cultural and natural heritage, wherein “education is the pillar for all transformation in the world.” “The awareness,” as raised by Ms. Ghannoum’s book, “is important,” he stressed. It is through such coordinated actions by all countries at COP26, that will result in a cleaner and more agreeable planet.

On the same note, Mr. Friji closed the event in wishing a successful COP26 summit to call on all leaders to heed the global calls for action through clear programs, initiatives, and strategies to save our planet from scorches of climate change.

All audience members praised the enthusiastic participation of the students and commended Ms. Ghannoum’s book as an example of how to engage younger children in making a change and being advocates for climate action. The event was attended by; British School of Bahrain, Bahrain, International College of Beirut, Lebanon, and American School of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and includes the ambassadors of Bangladesh, Korea, Philippines, and Yemen, alongside other members of Bahrain’s diplomatic corps, media, as well as civil society.



When people flee their country, this usually indicates that their government has given up on parts of its population. In order to prevent displacement crises, this kind of state fragility needs to be countered. Fragility is a governance failure that cannot be overcome without transforming political institutions. Development cooperation must be geared towards addressing state fragility more comprehensively, with governance support playing a key role in this context.

When people flee their country, this usually indicates that their government has given up on parts of its population. In order to prevent displacement crises, this kind of state fragility needs to be countered. Fragility is a governance failure that cannot be overcome without transforming political institutions. Development cooperation must be geared towards addressing state fragility more comprehensively, with governance support playing a key role in this context.

When people flee their country, this usually indicates that their government has given up on parts of its population. In order to prevent displacement crises, this kind of state fragility needs to be countered. Fragility is a governance failure that cannot be overcome without transforming political institutions. Development cooperation must be geared towards addressing state fragility more comprehensively, with governance support playing a key role in this context.

Kritische Würdigung der umfassenden Organisationsbiografie, die die Politikwissenschaftlerin Maria Ivanova anlässlich des 50-jährigen Bestehens UN-Umweltprogramms (UNEP) als Herzstück der UN-Umweltarchitektur vorgelegt hat.

Kritische Würdigung der umfassenden Organisationsbiografie, die die Politikwissenschaftlerin Maria Ivanova anlässlich des 50-jährigen Bestehens UN-Umweltprogramms (UNEP) als Herzstück der UN-Umweltarchitektur vorgelegt hat.

Kritische Würdigung der umfassenden Organisationsbiografie, die die Politikwissenschaftlerin Maria Ivanova anlässlich des 50-jährigen Bestehens UN-Umweltprogramms (UNEP) als Herzstück der UN-Umweltarchitektur vorgelegt hat.

The COVID-19 crisis has created a dire need for the active facilitation of sustainable investment to promote an inclusive, gender-sensitive and green recovery. The partnership between the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU), and their respective member states, can provide a strategic and institutional framework for stimulating sustainable investment in a collective manner. Such investment is needed to fuel the recovery process, to help countries build back better and greener, while providing decent jobs, particularly for young people and women. The AU-EU Africa Summit, set for February 2022, provides an important opportunity for the two continents to strengthen their partnership, and ensure that sustainable and inclusive investment priorities are at its core. To this end, the Summit should recognise priority investment areas and processes through which these can be promoted, as well as present several concrete flagship initiatives.

The COVID-19 crisis has created a dire need for the active facilitation of sustainable investment to promote an inclusive, gender-sensitive and green recovery. The partnership between the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU), and their respective member states, can provide a strategic and institutional framework for stimulating sustainable investment in a collective manner. Such investment is needed to fuel the recovery process, to help countries build back better and greener, while providing decent jobs, particularly for young people and women. The AU-EU Africa Summit, set for February 2022, provides an important opportunity for the two continents to strengthen their partnership, and ensure that sustainable and inclusive investment priorities are at its core. To this end, the Summit should recognise priority investment areas and processes through which these can be promoted, as well as present several concrete flagship initiatives.