Diplomacy & Crisis News

Daniel Colard, professeur à l’Université de Besançon, a publié une note de lecture sur le numéro spécial de Politique étrangère consacré à la Grande Guerre, n°1/2014 (printemps 2014), pour la revue électronique Paix et Sécurité Européenne et Internationale.

“Parmi les nombreux ouvrages consacrés à la Grande Guerre et à ses suites, la revue Politique étrangère demeure égale à elle-même et fournit aux lecteurs une vue d’ensemble sans égale par la qualité de ses articles et de ses auteurs.”

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(Own report) - Berlin is rushing to renew economic ties with Iran and to engage in reshaping the Middle East by dispatching its minister of the economy to Tehran. The nuclear agreement, signed last Tuesday with Tehran, offers German companies the opportunity to normalize their trade with Iran, which was once among the most lucrative in the Middle East, but had sharply declined due to sanctions. Exports in the double-digit billions are expected. Meanwhile experts are calling for realigning power relations in the Persian Gulf under western leadership to establish a balance of power between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This would prevent the hegemony of either and offer the West favorable opportunities to influence developments in the region. Comprehensive German arms exports to Saudi Arabia and the weakening of Iranian positions, particularly in Syria, would form the basis of this desired balance of power. According to experts, the EU could play a leading role in reshaping the region, if resistance in the US Congress, at the last moment, does not block the nuclear deal.

Les élections européennes de mai dernier ont vu la montée en puissance de partis hostiles aux politiques menées au sein de l'Union. Au-delà de cette opposition, rien ne rapproche ces formations — extrême droite et gauche radicale. Comment une telle confusion a-t-elle pu s'imposer ? / Europe, (...) / Europe, Démocratie, Extrême droite, Histoire, Idées, Idéologie, Immigrés, Inégalités, Langue, Nationalisme, Parti politique, Politique, Racisme, Extrême gauche - 2014/07

Cette recension d’ouvrages est issue de Politique étrangère (2/2015). Jérôme Marchand propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Jessica L.P. Weeks, Dictators at War and Peace (Ithaca, NY, Cornell University Press, 2014, 247 pages).

Concis et bien documenté, cet ouvrage éclaire les différences de comportement entre systèmes autoritaires quant au recours à la force armée pour résoudre les conflits internationaux. Dépassant l’opposition conventionnelle entre dictatures belliqueuses et démocraties pacifiques, l’auteur ouvre son analyse à des éléments couramment négligés, tels les mécanismes de contrôle et de sanction pré- ou post-conflit auxquels sont ou non exposés les décideurs de premier rang, les systèmes d’évaluation qu’ils utilisent, ou encore les dispositions et les ressources des audiences domestiques susceptibles de leur demander des comptes en cas de déconvenue ou de défaite. Manière de dire que la structure d’un régime détermine la manière dont ses dirigeants appréhendent les retombées potentielles de leurs initiatives militaro-diplomatiques, et gèrent les rapports de forces endogènes et exogènes.

À partir de ce constat, Jessica L.P. Weeks distingue quatre formes de directions autoritaires : deux à dominante collective (appareils civils et juntes) et deux à dominante individuelle (leaders civils et « hommes forts » galonnés). Elle s’applique ensuite à revisiter l’histoire d’un ensemble de conflits militaires, de l’affrontement URSS-Chine en 1929 jusqu’à l’invasion de l’Irak en 2003. Ce travail comparatif a pour fonction de déterminer qui a pris l’initiative des hostilités, quelle a été l’issue des affrontements armés et dans quelle mesure la défaite a entraîné des changements de personnels à la tête de la puissance vaincue. Il en ressort que les autocraties et les juntes sont nettement plus enclines à déclencher des interventions armées que les appareils gouvernés par un collège d’apparatchiks. Plus expérimentés, plus diversifiés dans leur recrutement, plus nuancés dans leurs jugements, ces derniers se montreraient aussi plus ouverts et flexibles quant au choix des options stratégiques. Autre enseignement notable, les leaders civils et les « hommes forts » galonnés auraient une nette propension à mésestimer les risques de défaite militaire, mais ces défauts de jugement caractérisés ne seraient que rarement suivis d’une éviction du pouvoir, à la différence de ce qui se produit pour les dirigeants trop téméraires dans les systèmes à dominante collective.

Aux yeux de l’auteur, si ces éclairages permettent de mieux décoder les logiques d’action des régimes autoritaires, ils ne dispensent pas d’analyses individuelles tenant compte de la trajectoire des autocrates, de leur profil psychologique, de leurs perceptions et de leurs préférences, et intégrant le fait que la déliquescence des contrôles externes favorise la libération du pulsionnel et du fantasmatique. À l’appui de ses réflexions, Jessica Weeks produit six études de cas traitant de l’invasion du Koweït en 1990, des initiatives de Staline entre 1938 et 1940, de la guerre des Malouines, des guerres d’expansion livrées par le Japon entre 1931 et 1941, des combats livrés par le Nord-Vietnam contre les États-Unis, le Sud-Vietnam et le Cambodge des Khmers rouges, et enfin des conduites de l’URSS post-stalinienne. Bien choisis et documentés, ces exemples souffrent d’un traitement linéaire et auraient gagné à soulever quelques hypothèses dissonantes. On peut par ailleurs déplorer certains manques dans l’index de fin d’ouvrage. Ces petites réserves exprimées, Dictators at War and Peace justifie une lecture attentive.

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The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), senior Afghan Government officials and representatives from the international donor community have gathered today in Kabul for the first of three meetings aimed at examining the role of UN entities in the country.

The capacity of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) to fulfil its mandate rests on “persistent engagement” with the authorities, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the Mission, Martin Kobler, told the Security Council today.

Last week brought the passing of Omar Sharif, the legendary actor who became widely known to Western audiences for his work in David Lean’s World War I classic “Lawrence of Arabia.” In that film, Sharif played Sharif Ali, a fictional composite character that becomes Lawrence’s chief adviser and ally among the Arab tribes Lawrence aims to lead.

By coincidence, also last week a 70mm print of the restored “Lawrence of Arabia” had its annual summer screening at the American Film Institute in Silver Spring, Md. The film remains a technical and artistic wonder. It certainly takes its share of artistic liberties: Sharif’s fictionalized Sharif Ali is one of many. However, beyond its value to film history and in spite of its Hollywood embellishments, “Lawrence” still speaks truths about the West’s relationship to the Middle East.

It’s Not All About Oil. The money and influence oil reserves bring to Saudi Arabia and other Arab powers have dominated Western involvement in the region for decades. It makes it easy to forget that the region’s fractious and violent politics predate oil’s existence. Exploration in the region began prior to the war years depicted in the film, but it would be two more decades before the Arabian Peninsula was to be known as an oil powerhouse.

Oil is not a factor in the turmoil “Lawrence” depicts. All of the film’s political struggles stem from Western colonialism and the factionalism among the Arab tribes. The film is a reminder that oil was an added catalyst for political contentions that were already present prior to its discovery.

It’s Not All About Religion. The East/West cultural divide is the film’s over-arching theme. Sharif Ali calls Lawrence “English” throughout, and being awarded tribal robes is both a great source of pride for Lawrence and disdain among his fellow British officers.

However, the sectarianism that is a central part of today’s Middle East politics is as absent as oil from “Lawrence.” The film depicts the waning days of the Ottoman Empire, which served as the center of Muslim political life, and which Western powers sought to plunder at its demise. The absence of religion as a cause of conflict stands in stark contrast to current struggle against ISIS efforts to build a pan-Arab caliphate across existing regional borders. When asked if his men will join the cause of Arab freedom, tribal leader Auda abu Tayi (Anthony Quinn) responds, “What is an Arab?”

Tribal loyalties, and the people and resources tribal leaders control, are paramount. The role of religious identity has come to the political forefront in recent decades. Those in the region still place substantially less weight on colonial-era national borders than do Western powers. One might imagine a contemporary version of the film’s conversation ending in, “What is an Iraqi?”

Don’t Underestimate the Role of Politics Within Western Militaries. One of the film’s crucial relationships is that of Lawrence and Gen. Allenby, the head of British forces in the region. After Lawrence’s forces capture the port of Aqaba from the Turks, Allenby supports his ongoing rearguard actions against Turkish forces while insulating himself from them with a cynical detachment.

“I’ve got my orders, thank God,” Allenby says. “Not like that poor chap. He’s riding the whirlwind.”

Allenby flatters Lawrence’s courage, but he communicates the fact that no one of his political stature would place his reputation in jeopardy to do what Lawrence is doing. That sort of institutional conservatism, and aversion to risk-taking, is not always given its due as a cause of the inertia in the region’s politics over decades. The film does a nice job of depicting the fact that it is as present a factor in the military as it is in the diplomatic world.

“Lawrence” is a feast for the eyes even for those less concerned with the region’s politics. It gave us several performances for the ages — Sharif’s included. It is as masterful a technical achievement as we are likely to see on film (and decades before computer graphics, so every camel you see in “Lawrence” is a camel).

For those following the region’s politics, however, its concluding message is more “plus ça change” than one would hope. Fifty-three years after “Lawrence” arrived on screens, we are still describing the West’s relationship with the Middle East in similar terms. That may change. To quote one of Lawrence’s favorite sayings in the film, “Nothing is written.”

The United Nations Security Council has extended the mandate of the Organization’s interim peacekeeping force in Abyei – a resource-rich area contested by Sudan and South Sudan – as part of ongoing efforts to maintain peace and protect civilians in the disputed territory.

With only 60 per cent of the pre-conflict water supply capacities still functioning in Ukraine, some 1.3 million people are struggling to cope with a “serious water crisis” because of damaged or destroyed water lines, forcing many families to travel with buckets to working wells in neighbouring villages, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned today.

Offering deep condolences to the victims’ families and a speedy recovery for those injured in the latest attack in Afghanistan targeting civilians, the top United Nations official in the country, Nicholas Haysom, condemned the attack, which targeted people gathered for Iftar at the Grand Mosque in Pul-e-Khomri, in the northern Baghlan province.

With an expected humanitarian pause failing to take hold in crisis-torn Yemen over the past weekend, the United Nations said today that four out of five people in the country rely on some type of assistance, and the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that it has been able to deliver urgently needed supplies to the port city of Aden.

People suffering from mental health disorders are facing unequal access to specialized care, the United Nations health agency announced today as it urged international governments to boost financing for mental health services around the world.

The United Nations rights office today welcomed the recent release of a Palestinian prisoner who had been on a hunger strike protesting his continuing administrative detention by the Israeli authorities since 8 July 2014.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed deep concern over attacks and incitement to violence against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people in Turkey and has called on the authorities to take active measures to combat homophobic and transphobic violence and discrimination, a UN spokesperson said today.

Avant tout, la conclusion d'un accord sur le programme nucléaire iranien représente une victoire pour Téhéran, même si rien n'est encore joué et si des divergences majeures subsistent quant à son interprétation. / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Iran, Proche-Orient, Nucléaire militaire, (...) / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Iran, Proche-Orient, Nucléaire militaire, Mutation, Nucléaire civil, Relations internationales, Diplomatie, Relations bilatérales - 2015/05