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Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère
(n° 2/2018). Stefano Ugolini propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl et Livia Chitu, How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (Princeton University Press, 2017, 272 pages).

Jusqu’à quand perdurera le « privilège exorbitant » que le dollar confère aux États-Unis ? Le monde de plus en plus multipolaire dans lequel nous nous apprêtons à vivre sera-t-il caractérisé par une infrastructure monétaire tout aussi multipolaire ? L’euro aura-t-il quelques chances d’améliorer sa performance (jusqu’à présent, relativement décevante) en tant que devise internationale ? Ceux qui s’intéressent à ce genre de questions ne pourront se passer de How Global Currencies Work. Il s’agit d’une monographie académique mais accessible aux non-initiés, qui s’appuie largement sur les travaux de recherche menés récemment par plusieurs historiens-économistes (dont bon nombre de Français ou basés en France) autour de l’évolution du système monétaire international.

La thèse défendue par les auteurs est simple : alors qu’on a traditionnellement tendance à concevoir le statut de monnaie internationale comme un « monopole naturel » (les externalités de réseau n’admettant que l’existence d’une seule devise internationale, et empêchant donc l’essor de potentiels compétiteurs), l’évidence historique montre plutôt que ce statut est loin d’être unique et inattaquable. L’argument est surtout construit sur la base de l’épisode du « passage du flambeau » entre livre sterling et dollar américain dans l’entre-deux-guerres (dont la narration constitue le « noyau dur » de la monographie), mais les chapitres couvrent la totalité de la période allant du milieu du XIXe siècle jusqu’à aujourd’hui. En ligne avec les contributions précédentes de Barry Eichengreen, la conclusion générale est que la primauté du dollar est effectivement contestable : si elle n’a pas vraiment été menacée jusqu’à présent, cela est plus dû aux faiblesses de ses principaux compétiteurs (notamment, le yen et l’euro) qu’à l’existence de véritables « barrières à l’entrée ».

La thèse du livre est présentée et défendue de manière très claire et, au premier abord du moins, linéaire. Le prix de cette simplification est, inévitablement, une perte de complexité dans l’argument. Le terme « monnaie internationale » cache en effet des réalités différentes. Une devise peut être utilisée à l’international pour accomplir des paiements, en vertu de son acceptabilité (c’est par exemple le cas du renminbi en Asie du Sud-Est) ; pour diversifier un portefeuille financier, en vertu de ses propriétés contra-cycliques (comme c’est le cas du franc suisse) ; ou encore, pour accomplir des opérations spéculatives, en vertu de sa volatilité (exemple du dollar australien). Or, puisque ces multiples dimensions conduisent mécaniquement à l’usage simultané de plusieurs devises sur les marchés internationaux, le constat d’une telle coexistence (qui constitue le résultat central de ce livre) n’invalide pas nécessairement l’idée traditionnelle que le statut de devise internationale par excellence est un « monopole naturel ».

Si les auteurs prouvent être conscients de ces nuances dans leur narration historique, ils les passent sous silence dans la construction de leur argument, qui se base sur une définition de « monnaie internationale » assez restrictive (c’est-à-dire, comme synonyme de « monnaie de réserve », notamment détenue par les banques centrales). Les recherches futures nous diront si l’adoption d’une définition moins restrictive pourrait invalider, ou non, les conclusions ici proposées par Eichengreen et ses co-auteurs.

Stefano Ugolini

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Many Pakistani, Afghani and Bangladeshi Hindus living in India face a dire situation. Even though they share the same faith and culture as Hindus in India, they are not being granted Indian citizenship. Instead, they are being treated like stateless refugees. Furthermore, the Times of India recently reported that within the last three years, over 2,000 Pakistani Hindus who fled to India have been forced to return to Pakistan because they have been denied citizenship. According to the report, many of the returning Hindus have been forced to convert to Islam.

Pakistani dissident Natharam Bheel added in the Times of India: “Pakistani Hindus who are coming to India that are leaving everything in Pakistan are not getting anything here as well. They are coming here with the hope of leading a good life but eventually, they are losing all hope. Waiting period is getting longer. They are coming here on a religious visa and due to a lack of papers and documents, they are forced to go back.”

This is a great tragedy not only for the Pakistani Hindu community but also for the entire Hindu world and global civilization at large. Anyone who cares about minority rights in the greater Muslim world should be outraged. The time has come for this charade to come to an end! The Indian government should immediately adopt Israel’s right of return policy, so that oppressed Hindus in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other parts of the world will have a refuge to flee to.

The Hindus in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan are in a horrible bind and are in desperate need of such a refuge. According to Shipan Kumer Basu, President of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, many Muslims in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh claim that India is the country of the Hindus and that all Hindus should go there: “From a religious perspective, India is our holy land but if we go to India, we are not treated as equals. There we do not receive citizenship nor jobs so why should we leave our ancestral lands, property and relatives behind to live in India?” However, countless Hindus from Muslim countries have nevertheless gone to India because they were compelled to leave their homelands due to atrocities implemented by various Islamist individuals and groups, who are backed by the local government.

The BBC claims that Hindus in Pakistan are treated like second class citizens. According to the report, their children are forced to read the Quran in Pakistani schools and are often mocked due to their religious beliefs. In addition, the Tribune reported that a study analyzing Pakistani textbooks from grades 1-10 concluded that “Hindus are repeatedly described as extremists and eternal enemies of Islam whose culture and society is based on injustice and cruelty, while Islam delivers a message of peace and brotherhood, concepts portrayed as alien to the Hindu.” According to the Movement for Solidarity and Peace, around 1,000 Hindu and Christians girls in Pakistan are kidnapped, forcefully converted and married to Muslim men against their will every year.

Due to facing such indignities, the Hindu population in Pakistan has rapidly declined. According to the Diplomat, at the time of the partition of British India, Hindu’s constituted 15% of Pakistan’s population but today, less than 2% of the Pakistani population is Hindu. Furthermore, the report noted that every year about 5,000 Hindus leave Pakistan in order to avoid persecution. Basu reported that a similar trend is occurring among the Hindus of Afghanistan and Bangladesh, who also are systematically being ethnically cleansed from their ancestral homes.

The Hindus of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Many policy makers in the West do not care about their plight because they are not white, lack the possession of numerous natural resources and do not have the backing of rich oil producing states. Furthermore, their enemies aren’t Jewish so there is no predetermined bigotry against their enemies, which can lead to an international call for them to obtain the justice that they deserved. Meanwhile, with the rise of radical Islam in the Indian subcontinent, their status in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan is getting more perilous by the day. And so long as India does not offer them refuge just as Israel does for Jews from Muslim majority countries, the Hindus from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh won’t benefit from having a national homeland for all Hindus, where they can be treated with the dignity and respect that they deserve. Therefore, the time has come for India to stand up for its historic responsibility and to transform India into a national homeland for all Hindus.

The post India should adopt Israel’s right of return policy appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

>> Retrouvez l’article dont est extraite cette citation : « L’Union européenne et la lutte contre le terrorisme », écrit par Séverine Wernert dans le numéro d’été 2018 de Politique étrangère (n° 2/2018). <<

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