Diplomacy & Crisis News

Peter Suciu

Technology,

Well, for starters, the Glock 18 can fire 1,200 round a minute.

While many Americans will go to any length to buy American and will choose a Smith & Wesson or Colt when it comes to handguns, just like many Americans swear by Ford and GM, there are those who prefer what the Europeans use. In the case of cars it might be BMWs and Mercedes. In handguns, it means Sig Sauer and, more commonly, Glock.

For a firearms company that has been around for less than forty years it has managed to become quite popular with handgun enthusiasts. Yet, despite the popularity of the Glock, there are a few models that the average American shooter simply can't own.

In the case of the Glock 18, it is pretty easy to understand why it is banned for mainstream sale and is illegal for civilian ownership. It is a full-sized "automatic pistol" that can shoot out the 9mm rounds like a submachine gun. It has a rate of fire of 1,200 rounds per minute, which is technically impossible given the fact that its high-capacity magazine holds only 33 rounds.

The weapon was introduced as a select-fire 9mm for military and police units in 1986, and was originally designed at the request of the Austrian counter-terrorism unit. It is nearly identical to the civilian-friendly Glock 17, except for a rotating lever-type fire-control switch that is placed on the left side of the slide. Because of the full-auto functionality it is almost impossible for civilians to legal purchase/own one.

There are likely few—if any—legally transferrable Glock 18s out there, and as The National Interest previously noted, "If you do manage to stumble across one of them though, you'll likely have to fork up a luxury car amount of money just to purchase it."

While it is easy to understand why the Glock 18 is banned, it isn't as clear with the Glock 25 and Glock 28—but this comes down to the Gun Control Act of 1968, which set new criteria for the importation of guns. The then-newly created Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (BATF) created a point system to determine whether a handgun could be imported into the United States. The points are awarded based on criteria that include the length, height, weight, construction, safety, features, sight, grips and caliber.

The Glock 25 fell short in the points system. It was actually created for the South American market, where civilians could not carry military caliber weapons. The Glock 25, along with the Glock 28, is chambered for the .380 caliber round, which makes it perfectly legal in South America, yet at the same time illegal to import to the United States market.

Where it gets slightly more confusing is that while the Glock 25 was banned for civilian sales, it was still legal to import for law enforcement and military sales. So it is possible to legally purchase a used Glock 25 or possibly Glock 28 that was bought by a law enforcement agency that has since sold them off. But that is a stretch and probably not worth the bother when a Glock 26, 27, or 33 are similar and do the job just as well.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Pixabay.

Peter Suciu

History, Americas

Too often people think it is a holiday to honor American military veterans, but that's not true. November 11, which began as Armistice Day to mark the end of the First World War and evolved into Veterans Day, is when we pay tribute to those who served in the United States military.

It is called the unofficial start to summer; a three-day weekend when a "tent pole" action film (usually with lots of CGI heroes) opens and it is a holiday that retailers use to clear inventory. Unfortunately, what is often forgotten is the actual origin of Memorial Day. For those who say that "Christmas is too commercialized" and that the meaning is lost should remember that, sadly, few Americans understand the meaning behind the Memorial Day holiday.

Too often people think it is a holiday to honor American military veterans, but that's not true. November 11, which began as Armistice Day to mark the end of the First World War and evolved into Veterans Day, is when we pay tribute to those who served in the United States military.

Memorial Day is actually a more solemn occasion—or at least should be—as it honors those men and women who died while serving in the Armed Forces. It is a time to reflect and remember those American patriots who made the ultimate sacrifice while protecting and defending the country they loved.

The holiday's origins go back to May 1868, when General John A. Logan, who was the commander-in-chief of the Union veterans' group the Grand Army of the Republic, issued a decree that May 30 should become a nationwide day of commemoration for the more than 620,000 soldiers killed in the recently ended Civil War. Logan reportedly chose that date for Decoration Day not because it marked a major battle, but rather because it was a rare day that didn't fall on the anniversary of a Civil War battle. Logan, who had been a congressman before the war, returned to his political career and eventually served in both the House and Senate. When he died his body was laid in state in the rotunda of the United States Capitol, making him just one of thirty-four people to have received the honor.

His Decoration Day was embraced by the nation and by 1890 every state adopted it as a holiday, and over the years it was used to remember those killed not just in the Civil War but in other American conflicts. However, it wasn't until 1971, during the Vietnam War, that Memorial Day became officially recognized as a national holiday.

Likewise, while it was largely known as Memorial Day, it was still officially Decoration Day until the Uniform Monday Holiday Act of 1968 finally went into effect. That both officially renamed the day, and moved it to a set day—the last Monday in May. Some veterans groups have expressed concerns that it has become merely a long weekend of summer and thus it fails to honor those veterans who made the ultimate sacrifice. For twenty years that cause was championed by Hawaiian Senator and decorated World War II veteran Daniel Inouye, who until his death in 2012, reintroduced legislation that would move the holiday back to May 30.

The National Movement of Remembrance resolution was passed in December 2000, and it asks that at 3pm local time, all Americans "voluntarily and informally observe in their own way a moment of remembrance and respect, pausing from what they are doing for a moment of silence or listening to 'Taps.'"

Memorial Day should be about honoring the true American heroes, not those in an action movie, and we should remember their sacrifice that makes it possible to enjoy a three weekend of BBQs and summer activities.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters.

 

By Mendi Safadi

Another Iranian site has been discovered in Syria near Al Baida en route to Siyaf and it is intended for an attack deep inside of Israel.  This is an Iranian nuclear site deep inside the heart of Syria that poses a tangible danger to the Jewish state.

The site is located south of Meisaf.  The construction began four years ago in an old military site belonging to the 47th Missile Brigade.  The area was bombed by Israel in August 2019.  The site is very important in several ways, the most important one being its strategic location.  It has an eastern entrance along the road and another secret entrance on the northwestern side.

This is an Iranian site.  The function of the Syrian officers and recruits is to provide Iran with relief, to serve them and to provide some maneuvers at a number of points at a distance from the site.  The Iranians refuse any Syrian presence except for a few undeniable loyalists to Iran.

A study revealed about a year ago the entrance of a number of vehicles with building materials and cement, provided by the General Housing Organization and the Ibaa Building and Mortgage Organization.  It is owned by Hussein Shahin.  Concrete walls were added to the site.  It is intended for excavating underground tunnels and others works over a period of months.

According to our sources, the excavations are intended for establishing our warehouses and underground halls.  The depths of the halls are 17 meters.  Private flights also landed on the site several times.  When each flight arrived, all of the Syrian soldiers and officers were removed from the base.  People with cameras were also banned from the site.

Trucks full of Russian and Iranian long-range missiles were brought into the site for development and improvement.  There is also a fighter jet facility in the southwestern part of the base.  Our sources indicate that the present work of the site includes the development of long-range rockets and missiles.  It was confirmed that there is suspicious equipment at the site. 

As for the Syrian officers at the base, there is a lietenant colonel named Hassan Khalef and an officer named Ali Asif Al Muhammed.  Among the most important Iranian officers at the site are Hussein Abdul Ilai AL Bashiri, Hussein Ali Kashbaf, the son of one of the military leaders killed in Syria, and Ali Mohammed Madani, who is directly responsible for Iran’s bases and military power in Syria.

Also, according to our sources, a couple of months ago, a meeting of senior level Iranian officials took place that included the late Qassem Soleimani accompanied by General Ali Asgar Nourazi, who is one of the most wanted in Israel and Mohammed Hussein Zadeh, who is responsible for supplying Iranian forces in Syria. 

Our information indicates that the Sayif Base will be ready for full military action by the middle of next year and will focus on: 1) hitting any target by sea that threatens Iran’s existence within Syria by more than 700 meters; 2) Attacking deep inside of Israel; 3) Attacks capable of reaching Turkish bases.

It is important to note that the base is purely Iranian military and contains a number of halls, plazas and underground tunnels, as well as several aircraft.  There is also a suspicion that there may be a nuclear reactor.  Furthermore, after the site was constructed, the back of it was filled with more than two feet of black red soil covered in cement. 

Mendi Safadi, the head of the Safadi Center for International Diplomacy, Research, Human Rights and Public Relations, is a lecturer and expert on Islamic affairs, terrorism, Syria and the Middle East.  He has published numerous articles and served as a political and strategic adviser about the Arab Spring and the Syrian revolution. Previously, he was the chief of staff in the Office of the Deputy Minister for Development of the Negev and Galilee and Regional Cooperation.  He served as a link between officials in the government and the Syrian opposition.  

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If the world doesn’t learn the right lessons from its failure to prepare and act on them with the speed, resources, and political and societal commitment they deserve, the toll next time could be considerably steeper.

 

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In an interview, Shipan Kumer Basu, President of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, reported that the Sheikh Hasina government has been only praying that Muslims get spared from the coronavirus pandemic yet had no blessings to give to the minority communities within her country: “A number of non-Muslims live in Bangladesh.  No prayer was offered for their protection at this time. The question to the international community, are non-Muslims not citizens of Bangladesh? Do they not pay taxes and VAT to the government?”

Advocate Govinda Pramanik, the Secretary General of the Hindu Mahajot, noted, “During the pandemic, my organization is helping Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists and Christians by providing relief. But a number of Muslim organizations, including Bangla Aid, are only giving relief to Muslims.  Hindus, Buddhists and Christians have to convert to Islam if they are to get relief.  How can a secular country conduct themselves like that?”

He added: “Hindus are being tortured, killed and raped every day in Bangladesh during the Corona epidemic but Sheikh Hasina is not taking any action.”  Debasis Basu, president of the Bangladesh branch of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, concurred that attacks on Hindus by Muslims continue in Bangladesh: “Even in the midst of the Corona pandemic, Muslims are attacking Hindus. But the dictator Sheikh Hasina did not take any action in this regard.”

Shipan Kumer Basu, president of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, noted that Bangladeshi human rights activist Aslam Chowdhury, who has tirelessly worked in order to advance Hindu minority rights, remains in jail despite the pandemic, which already caused a football player whose cell was in the vicinity of Chowdhury to succumb to the virus: “He had gotten bail at a different time from the High Court but the Supreme Court overrode it. Chowdhury is a well-respected human rights activist associated with the Bangladeshi opposition and this stands behind his imprisonment.  His continued imprisonment during the coronavirus pandemic demonstrates the bad intentions of the Bangladeshi government.  We demand his immediate release.”

Bangladesh Janata Party (BJP) President Mithun Chowdhury has been imprisoned for almost three years for working to protect the interests of the Hindus as well. Although all Muslim parties have been politically registered in Bangladesh, no Hindu party has yet been registered. While working to protect the interests of minorities, Mithun Chowdhury wanted political registration of the BJP but was arrested by the government. Mithun Chowdhury could have stood by the Hindus in dealing with this difficult situation in the country.

However, Bangladesh is not the only country where Hindus are getting persecuted amid the pandemic.  In Pakistan, there are reports that both Hindus and Christians have been denied food aid amid the pandemic.  Furthermore, recently in Pakistan, during the height of the pandemic, a 14 -year-old Christian girl was abducted, forcefully converted to Islam and then married off to her abductor.   

Abhishek Gupta, president of the World Hindu Struggle Committee India, said the Mamata government in West Bengal was also creating divisions between Hindus, Muslims and various parties in the distribution of relief: “The Mamata government is giving priority to Muslims and their party TMC in distributing relief and isn’t providing any aid to Hindu religious priests , which is anti-democratic. The Mamata government is also hiding the number of patients and deaths from Corona, which puts the people of West Bengal at the highest risk of death.”

In conclusion, Basu called upon the international community to not neglect the Hindus of Bangladesh, Pakistan and West Bengal at this critical time and to ensure that Hindus also receive assistance in dealing with the coronavirus.  

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JASON LEE / REUTERS

There has been a great deal of discussion in Western and other countries surrounding an economic and political disengagement from China’s economy. Since the acceptance of China into the WTO in 2001 and the great re-introduction of China into the world economy after 2008, the Chinese economy has flourished, mainly based upon supplying consumer goods to the US and Europe. With an ever growing middle class in China, it made sense for many international firms to create a presence in China, all the while adapting their manufacturing processes to produce in China while exporting less expensive, Union free products back into the US and EU. The growth of China’s economy reached double digits in some years, with masses of rural Chinese residents flocking into the larger cities to take jobs in the newly reinvigorated manufacturing sector. Most international companies took advantage of this years long boom in China’s growth, setting up Chinese firms in a legal and political environment that took little notice of labour rights, while allowing for a maximization of profits in China and the ability to ship and profit abroad. Western companies made money, and the owners of these companies made money, allowing China’s government to profit and reinvest in China. The West and East were linked economically, with losses in China’s RMB value now affecting those in New Jersey, Amsterdam and Abu Dhabi.

The strategy of integrating two large economies was hailed as a success post Second World War. The idea of integrating the German and French economies into a European Economic Community arose from the theory that economic losses on both sides would deter future conflict, in a region that was known for having a great many conflicts over generations. While integrating China into the WTO and world economic system was not intended to solely reduce conflict, the hope was that implementing China into a democratic economic system would influence China to become more economically motivated, thus motivating property rights and the values of Western democracy in some form. The motivation on making money while passively promoting human rights values was part of the theory, but for the most part it never took shape. Nations that were once considered strong democracies, as in Hong Kong, are now losing rights rapidly while the rest of the world ignores their challenges. The suspicion of influence over international organisations has lead some countries to question the advice of those international bodies that have the majority of their economic ties to one or two countries. Even strong democracies are showing signs of influence, to the detriment of their own citizens.

For many large companies a pulling away from China’s economy would mean a great loss of revenue, and it is likely the case that any downsizing or sale of many of these companies may only find buyers from the Chinese market. For those who have benefitted from China’s economic boom to take a decade of lost revenue and little to no growth produces a large disincentive for them commercially. While often running very wealthy companies, the reality is that owner and CEOs would lose money personally as well. A separation from China’s economy would not only take a massive economic hit on most companies, it would also place them into the political realm as the idea to separate would place hard working Chinese employees against hard working American, European and other employees where the population, through no fault of their own, would take the brunt of the losses during separation. In the event that post-Covid-19 economies do not recover in the next two to three years, the reality may be that economic suffering hurting workers in the West may become the catalyst for political leaders to enforce a real separation from China’s economy.

To enable companies and governments to change their economic model that has been enshrined since 2008 would likely require a great deal of government lead incentives to push industries back into their own national economic system and away from China’s low cost production economy. Part of China’s economic plan in recent years has been to move from manufacturing into more Research and Development intensive industries and compete with Western economies on more value based product categories. While China still is in the process of making this change, Western governments may force rapid change before the new policy takes shape fully in China. In order to do this, Western governments would need the money and political will to fund losses to companies and incentivize them to return. Carrots may work better than sticks, as a move to another low cost production economy may become more of an incentive than returning home.

With the massive losses from Covid-19 shutdowns, even the US and EU have taken a great deal of economic damage, so much so that Chinese companies would benefit from gobbling up companies in other countries while the value is low. For the grand disengagement from China to work, it would have to be done with like minded countries working in concert, still depending on each other but collectively deciding to move their industries back into their own backyards. Trade and development would likely continue within these blocks of nations, or within large self-sustaining economies, but with the shared goal of reducing dependency. The ties between nation states and flag ship national companies may become crucial, and weaker countries may end up having to choose their blocks as nationally supported companies take precedence over shared trade. Legal instruments like prohibiting key industries from being sold to foreign entities would become crucial, as well as a restriction on the sharing of Research and Development. China would likely have a harder time reaching record growth levels in this scenario, but with so much economic development and new technologies now residing in China, they would be a strong competitor within the world economy. Without this massive and nearly implausible push, it will be the case that the international economy will remain the same for generations to come.

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After large scale protests have been reported in over a dozen prisons and several rebellions have broken out in prisons across Iran, Pastor Saeed Abedini and a number of other political dissidents wrote a petition to US President Donald Trump.  They proclaimed that the United States should help Iran’s political prisoners by increasing American pressure on the mullah’s regime at this critical time.  They adamantly oppose any sanctions relief offered by the Democrats, claiming that it will do nothing but embolden the terrorist ambitions of the mullah’s regime at the expense of Iran’s political dissidents.   

“On behalf of Iranian Americans who are former political prisoners and have experienced firsthand the torture and the violence of the Iranian mullah’s, we write to urgently request your support for political prisoners in Iran,” the petition reads.  “Based on the information that we received, all prisoners and especially political prisoners are at severe risk of infection and death due to the coronavirus pandemic and the Iranian regime’s systematic mishandling of the health crisis.”

According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Conditions in Iran’s prisons were dire even before the threat of coronavirus, but activists had become increasingly concerned with the ability of overcrowding to facilitate the spread of coronavirus.”  There are reports that the situation for prisoners “began deteriorating rapidly as coronavirus spread, including floods of raw sewage and rarely functioning water supply.”  According to the petition, many Iranian political prisoners are outraged and have protested against this, yet their pleas have been ignored by the regime:  “In response, the notorious Iranian Revolutionary Guards has attacked, wounded and killed dozens of prisoners, many of whom are prisoners of conscious and some of whom are as old as 80 years old.  In addition, the Iranian regime has executed a number of protesters in order to create fear among the inmates.”  

The petition by the Iranian dissidents added: “As you are aware, Iran’s ruling regime has grossly misreported its COVID-19 cases and engaged in a malicious cover-up of fatalities.  Accurate figures provided by the National Council of Resistance of Iran reveal that the coronavirus death toll is nearly 35,000.   The conditions inside of Iran’s overcrowded prisons are uniquely disturbing.   Many of us can provide first-hand accounts of how the regime uses prison conditions as a method of torture.   Infected prisoners have not been quarantined or isolated.   Eye-witness reports indicate that the prison overcrowding and lack of sanitary essentials has led to high rates of infection.  This is not only inhumane but exacerbates the pandemic both in Iran and across the world.”

Given this, the petition emphasizes that humanitarian and medical assistance should only go to the Iranian people and not the mullah’s regime.  They also stressed that the Trump administration should be applying maximum pressure in order to ensure that political prisoners are released from Iranian prisons.  It should be emphasized that Iran has already released some criminals but to date continues to refuse to release political prisoners due to the coronavirus pandemic, perhaps because the Iranian regime wants the political prisoners to die.  However, the petition stressed that it is the duty of the free world to apply maximum political pressure in order to liberate all prisoners of conscious from the Islamic Republic of Iran. 

As Amnesty International proclaimed, “The Iranian authorities must immediately and unconditionally release hundreds of prisoners of conscience amid grave fears over the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Iran’s prisons. The authorities should take measures to protect the health of all prisoners and urgently consider releasing pre-trial detainees and those who may be at particular risk of severe illness or death.”  

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The loss of local businesses will likely have a greater long term effect on your community and country past losing your favourite pub or preferred place to eat. Besides making communities interesting, innovative and increasingly energetic, smaller and medium sized companies are a significant contributor to a healthy democracy. While the Corporatist model of policy development brings together large industry, government and labour to determine policy approaches in many Western European nations, the power and influence of small and medium sized businesses is lacking. Unfortunately, many who will experience job loss in Corporatist systems may not have other options for work as there are likely only a few larger companies that would avail themselves of the skills needed for employment. We have learned in the past that economic upheaval and abrupt policy changes many years ago at France Telecom and other large companies lead to a significant number of employees committing suicide. While the direct reason prompting this hopelessness was not determined, the inability to see a future for many of them may have been the cause. Increased economic opportunities at the time might have given employees some added hope for their future.

While the Industrial Revolution produced models for economic policy development that often only included large industry, labour and the government, those that were not fully integrated into those interest groups had limited their career prospects. During the industrial revolution, locals were the ones that moved from rural to urban centres and took up positions in newly formed industries. Newcomers to North America and South America did find employment in many of those industries, but they also expanded in the next generations to make their own start-up companies, creating employment for many of those who would have not been able to find work in the few large industrial firms at the time. For these reasons, the entrepreneurial class rose to such a great degree than they compete, and often provide more employment in the US and Canada than large industry. While the SBA and CFIB still have little influence over the policy decisions of governments in the US and Canada, the number of employees that depend on the entrepreneurial class is significant.

Hernando de Soto Polar produced some of the most interesting studies on how small and medium sized companies can promote a more equitable society in his research at the beginning of the 2000s. Latin America at that point had gone through twenty years of economic upheavals after the end of many years of closed borders and Import Substitution Industrialization policies that left most nations bankrupt. He saw that his fellow Peruvians were very capable of producing economic growth in their own communities, but did not have the power to influence policy decisions that made it easier to set up and run their own companies. In his analysis on Peru and Egypt, he showed that increased ability for smaller entrepreneurs to succeed also transformed economies into more equitable places to operate, and have added powers to those motivated and intelligent individuals who wanted a healthy community, thus producing a healthy country. It can be argued that much of the wealth and flexibility in the job market in the US and parts of Canada can be attributed to small and medium sized businesses contributing to low unemployment, and having some say in the policy decisions in society.

The loss of many small and medium businesses might have a negative effect on democracy as a whole. To lose much of the entrepreneurial class by further burdening small and medium sized businesses during a recession, or depression, not only limits their progress, but also reduces jobs and eliminates the best and most innovative in society from bettering that society. In the case of Canada for example, small and medium sized businesses actually make up the the majority of job producers in the country at over 65%, but during the current crisis the Federal Government of Canada added environmental taxes on all companies and citizens in the country, and even had the audacity to give all Federal politicians a raise on the same day. In comparison, the Prime Minister of New Zealand has recently declined a large portion of her own standard pay as a message of solidarity with the public. With the country possibly heading into depression era levels of job losses, the new tax deters rehiring those who lost their jobs, while adding to the cost of living for those who now live with no income. It is tantamount to cheering on the Sheriff of Nottingham when he takes from the newly poor and gives to the rich elites in society. In addition, it reduces the power of small and medium industry to have influence on policy decisions made by the government. With those most interested in vibrant communities being punished by bad policy, it may actually be detracting from a healthy democracy in that country.

While it will be impossible to save many small and medium sized companies during this crisis, the way in which many entrepreneurs operate will allow many to return when times are better. What must be done however is to not burden them or our communities further when recovery is possible. Without their voice on local matters, jobs will not return and our economy and government will not be as in-touch with us past elite opinions and elite options.

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CRISE SANITAIRE : LA DÉMOCRATIE EN DANGER ?

•  29 avril 2020

Publié sur le site du think tank Amadeus La crise sanitaire partie de Wuhan plonge le monde dans une période d’incertitude. Au-delà des considérations médicales et scientifiques, la problématique politique et même géopolitique demeure omniprésente. On en distingue au moins trois dimensions. La première d’entre elles est domestique : le contrôle d’une épidémie suppose un traçage de la population, ce qui génère immédiatement une problématique relative aux libertés fondamentales. La deuxième dimension du problème est internationale. La crise étant mondiale, elle touche différents types de régimes politiques. La comparaison entre les gestions respectives de cette crise s’impose donc : les régimes démocratiques sont-ils plus, ou moins, efficaces que les régimes autoritaires face à la menace actuelle ? Enfin, les conséquences internationales de cette crise, sinon sa fin définitive puisqu’elle semble se prolonger jusqu’à obtention d’un remède ou d’un vaccin, posent la question de la reconfiguration géopolitique mondiale. Y aura-t-il des vainqueurs et des vaincus de cette crise, et si oui, lesquels ?
La problématique interne : le prix de l’efficacitéLutter contre l’épidémie suppose, comme on l’a vu dans les démocraties asiatiques (Corée du sud, Taïwan), un traçage rapide et précis des populations. Cela pose naturellement la question des libertés publiques. Le recours à la technologie, aux smartphones personnels (donc aux données qu’ils contiennent), aux bases de données qui pourraient rassembler tous ces éléments, s’est avéré efficace. Mais l’utilisation qui peut en être faite à des fins commerciales ou surtout politiques, participe d’un débat amplement connu.Comme l’indique le débat parlementaire français actuel sur l’application « stopcovid », ou encore le débat politique allemand, ce type de mise en œuvre nécessite un contrôle démocratique et un encadrement normatif spécifiques. Encore s’agit-il là de deux démocraties solidement ancrées. On imagine donc les craintes que pourraient susciter l’utilisation de ces technologies dans un régime autoritaire. Plus largement, le risque de voir une dictature profiter de la crise sanitaire pour renforcer son contrôle sur la société, voire son poids dans la compétition internationale, est largement évoqué. Plusieurs exemples de changements constitutionnels ont suscité le doute. C’est le cas par exemple en Hongrie.
La problématique internationale : régime politique et gestion de criseUne compétition semble donc engagée entre différents types de régimes pour démontrer leur efficacité. La bataille fait rage notamment entre Pékin et Washington, qui s’accusent mutuellement d’hostilité ou de dissimulation, dans un contexte déjà a marqué par une guerre commerciale âpre. Les insinuations de la Chine selon lesquelles le virus aurait pu être importé par des militaires américains, et la rhétorique américaine sur le « virus chinois », alimentent une dynamique négative.Il existe une croyance tenace selon laquelle les régimes autoritaires détiendraient une supériorité naturelle de par la discipline qu’ils sont capables d’imposer à leurs populations. Or, face à une pandémie globale qui nécessite coordination, transparence scientifique, et mise à jour régulière du partage des données, les démocraties semblent mieux armées. On sait depuis l’accident de Tchernobyl que les dictatures gèrent mal les catastrophes, dissimulant tout ce qui peut remettre en cause leur image. Par nature, les régimes autoritaires n’acceptent pas les chiffres alarmants, ni les mauvaises nouvelles. Les démocraties, avec parfois une atteinte au moral mais dans l’exigence de vérité, « encaissent » les mauvaises nouvelles pour mieux gérer la réalité de la situation.Elles ont certes davantage de difficultés à imposer des restrictions et une discipline rigoureuse à leurs populations. Mais face à une pandémie, la liberté scientifique et le débat critique sont des atouts. Qu’on le veuille ou non, à la fin de l’épidémie, un bilan des différentes gestions sera dressé. La comparaison ne s’effectuera pas uniquement entre démocraties et autoritarismes. Au sein même des démocraties, la rapidité des mesures prises, les moyens que les Etats auront su mobiliser, la réactivité et la pédagogie à l’égard de la population, seront évalués. Déjà, des différences apparaissent, des polémiques s’installent. Le fait qu’en Asie, les régimes les plus démocratiques semblent maîtriser mieux l’épidémie tout en préservant leurs libertés, n’est pas neutre. Les gestions de Hong Kong, Taipei ou Séoul, sont remarquées et interprétées politiquement. La difficulté américaine à s’accorder sur une stratégie, notamment en comparaison avec l’Allemagne, autre système fédéral, l’a été également. La situation sanitaire, n’en doutons pas, a déjà eu et aura encore des conséquences politiques.
Prospective : interrogation sur « le monde d’après »Lire la suite sur Amadeus

 

Co-Authored by Pavlo Klimkin

The coronavirus crisis is still in full swing, but attention is already turning towards the international environment we are likely to encounter in the post-pandemic world. With entire countries currently in lockdown and comparisons with major wars becoming commonplace, many expect the impact from the crisis to be genuinely historic.

One popular subject of speculation is the need to rethink the global architecture of international relations. In particular, many observers are highly critical of the United Nations response to the coronavirus outbreak and see it as a damning verdict of an organization that was first established in the aftermath of WWII to transform the way the nations of the world interacted. Such criticism is nothing new in Ukraine, where the idea that the UN is not fit for purpose has been widely discussed since 2014. Will the coronavirus crisis now lead to serious debate over the need for fundamental reform at the United Nations?

When Russian aggression against Ukraine first began six years ago, it quickly became obvious that the existing international institutions were completely ineffective and often failed to function at all. Ukrainians found themselves in the absurd position of facing an aggressor country with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council that used this exclusive position to veto any official acknowledgment that international aggression was taking place at all. This created a farcical situation wherein one part of the UN Charter could not be implemented because of another part. By its mere existence, the UN’s most prominent decision-making body, the Security Council, had come to implicitly legitimize the military expansion of one of its permanent members at the expense of another UN member state. This sorry state of affairs directly undermined the central rationale behind the creation of the United Nations following WWII, which was to prevent any more wars of aggression.

Despite the obvious injustice of the situation the country found itself in, there was little in practice that Ukraine could do except continue fighting Russian aggression while attempting to rally international solidarity and support. Admittedly, Ukraine’s plight did help to generate discussion over the need to reform the UN Security Council. Working groups were created with this in mind, and some new concepts emerged. However, the debate did not lead anywhere.

This failure to reform was due to the fact that the world’s leading nations did not see sufficient need to reboot the entire existing international system. Even more troubling has been Russia’s efforts to bypass its expulsion from the G8 group of leading nations and engage diplomatically with the permanent members of the UN Security Council. In effect, the Kremlin has sought to discuss the fate of Ukraine without any Ukrainians being present, and has exploited the outdated idiosyncrasies of the UN’s structure in order to do so.

The current pandemic is now disrupting international affairs in ways that make reform of the United Nations realistic for the first time in a generation. Indeed, the global mood is now beginning to share some similarities with the climate at the end of the twentieth century’s two world wars in 1918 and 1945, which gave birth to the League of Nations and United Nations respectively. In this environment, Ukraine has a far greater chance of finding like-minded allies who also seek to pursue the wholesale transformation of the United Nations.

Resistance to any such proposals would be stiff. However, failure to address the shortcomings exposed by such landmark events as the coronavirus crisis and Russian aggression against Ukraine would risk further undermining the legitimacy of the current UN system. This could lead to the United Nations becoming increasingly irrelevant and ineffective in addressing the major challenges facing humanity, much as its predecessor the League of Nations faded into redundancy and was eventually washed away by a rising tide of totalitarianism in the late 1930s.

Talk of change at the United Nations is not in itself controversial. Today’s reform-minded UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has initiated a wide-ranging discussion on the subject. However, he has not yet been able to implement any of the substantive changes he planned when he first took office in January 2017. As a result, we may have already passed the chance for a gradual reform of the UN system. Instead, with confidence in the world’s current institutional structures dwindling with every passing week of coronavirus shocks, the prospect of radical change becomes more and more realistic.

Before beginning any reboot, the entire UN system would have to be thoroughly reassessed. Ideally, this would be done by an external and independent auditor. The most obvious candidate for change is the World Health Organization, which is widely seen to have failed in its duty to provide adequate monitoring and early warning of the current pandemic. A more decisive response could have saved thousands of lives and prevented the economic collapse that now menaces the entire planet. Questions are also being asked over the WHO’s relationship with China and its apparent unwillingness to complicate ties with Beijing. International institutions that cannot act on the basis of impartial analysis are doomed to be ineffective. Ukrainians learned this painful lesson in 2014. It is now also increasingly obvious to wider international audiences. 

The question remains of who would be best-placed to initiate, formulate and implement a global solution to the questions currently being asked of the existing international system. During the two previous formative periods following WWI and WWII, the victorious allies inevitably took the lead. In today’s very different circumstances, there is no clear candidate camp or driving force to initiate and push through a comprehensive reboot. Instead, Ukrainians should look to join forces with other nations seeking a fundamental remake of the current UN system. Their goal should be to put the issue on the agenda for diplomats, politicians, and journalists. The coronavirus crisis is exposing the weakness of today’s international institutions, but it may also pave the way for long overdue and radical reform. 

 

Pavlo Klimkin was Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2014 until 2019 and is Head of the European, Regional and Russian Studies Program at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv.

Andreas Umland is General Editor of the book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society” at ibidem Press in Stuttgart and a Senior Expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv.

This article was first published by the #UkraineAlert of the Atlantic Council and kindly edited by Peter Dickinson.

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The Pew Research Center recently reported that 66 percent of Americans view China unfavorably. And the Chinese are returning the favor in spades. Meanwhile, politicians in each country continue to encourage these nationalistic feelings instead of cooling their citizens’ tempers. The die is cast to tear up 50 years of cooperation and mutually beneficial ties that have benefited Americans and Chinese alike. 

The fact is unless America and China stop this mutually destructive trajectory and assume joint leadership for global economic recovery, reconstruction of the post-coronavirus world could take years, with unimaginable consequences for the world’s 7.8 billion inhabitants, including unprecedented levels of global unemployment, famine, and even war.  

In the pre-coronavirus world, suggestions for a partnership between the world’s two superpowers would have been met with gales of laughter. But now, despite the two leaders’ daggers drawn posture, hundreds of doctors and scientists in the U.S. and China are already working together on clinical trials of potential coronavirus drugs; and one of China’s biggest property developers has funded a five-year $115 million project between Harvard University and the Guangzhou Institute for Respiratory Health.

But the window of opportunity for acting together is short. The Covid-19 pandemic continues to decimate the world’s economies. Unemployment in the U.S. now tops 22 million, a level not seen since the Great Depression of the nineteen-thirties; while China’s economy stopped growing for the first time in four decades as half a million small and mid-size businesses, the backbone of China’s economy closed; and Italy, the second largest manufacturing economy in the EU watches helplessly as the pandemic axe dismembers its economy. If India and Africa are unable to control the coronavirus the results would be catastrophic.

So, are there issues of such import and mutual benefit that they would convince Presidents’ Trump and Xi Jinping to work together? I believe there are. My two cents worth below.

The two superpowers could leverage China’s vast, trillion-dollar global infrastructure project—the Belt and Road Initiative or BRI, that aims to build infrastructure in over 120 countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa. The BRI is designed to act as a conveyer belt to transmit Chinese investment and technology into these countries to improve their economies, and to link them to China.  But now Covid-19 has crimped China’s ability to sustain BRI’s trillion-dollar underwriting tab and President Xi Jinping’s grandiose vision is at risk.

On the other hand, the United States, which has been searching for a counter to BRI, has settled on an initiative called the Blue Dot Network or BDN. The idea behind the BDN is the U.S. would rigorously vet infrastructure project applications in developing countries to ensure high levels of transparency, sustainability, and economic viability before seeding them with startup funds from the U.S. Government. The BDN hallmark would then inspire confidence in the projects to attract private U.S. funding.  

But the relatively paltry BDN budget of $60 billion (versus China’s 1000 billion or trillion-dollar BRI budget) and developing countries’ skepticism of Western (read American) dominated standards for infrastructure construction have hobbled the BDN.

If the U.S. and China could find a way to combine BRI and the BDN it would ensure a stream of dollars from private U.S. companies into BRI and ensure its projects remain on track to create jobs and raise living standards around the world. The compromises required by America and China to weld BRI and BDN together would ensure the U.S. gets a seat at the table to influence the adoption of standards for starting and executing BRI projects. 

Here’s another thought:  The U.S. military is especially qualified to help fight natural disasters. In 2004, for instance, 3,000 U.S. military personnel were deployed to West Africa to help combat a deadly Ebola epidemic. Their work included constructing 17 hospitals, field training, and deploying assistance by air to remote villages. Today the U.S. military is being used to rapidly set up hospitals in U.S. cities to handle the burgeoning coronavirus caseload. The People’s Liberation Army meanwhile seems determined to play a more active global role in peace-keeping projects around the world. How about combining the two militaries capabilities to provide medical assistance for coronavirus stricken countries with marginal medical facilities.

Coronavirus-aid projects delivered to less-off countries through joint U.S.-China military teams would double what the U.S. and China could do on their own. And help establish the military to military connections that the U.S. has tried to foster with China for some time. A working relationship between the two nations’ militaries might even lead to a more stable geopolitical balance of power.

The Chinese word for crisis contains two characters. One signals danger, the other opportunity. Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping should boldly find a way to join forces to convert the deadly Covid-19 crisis into an opportunity that would supercharge global economic recovery and could even lead to a more stable balance of power.  It is a once in a lifetime opportunity that ought not to be squandered.

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Sarwar Kashmeri is the author of “China’s Grand Strategy; Weaving a New Silk Road to Global Primacy, (Praeger 2019);” He is a Fellow, Foreign Policy Association, and an Applied Research Fellow, Norwich University’s Center for Peace and War.

 

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Pigeons roam around Piazza Duomo square after the government decree to close cinemas and schools. Guglielmo Mangiapane / Reuters

It is no surprise to those that live on the Mediterranean that often policy that is made in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris foresee little impact on the borders of the EU. When many decision are made in the centre of Western Europe, often it is Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal that have to manage the outcome. What has made many of these issues contentious is that while the policy and funds may come from Brussels, actual physical help is more often than not denied. Since before 2007’s migrant crossings, it has always been the border patrols and national Navys that have to manage a problem that is sometimes exacerbated from another country’s actions. With reduced help, the response by national governments to EU policy places the enforcement officers as well as migrants themselves at greater risk.

The significance of Milan and the region of Lombardy is the economic centre of not only Italy and its northern region, but is a key hub between Vienna, the Swiss centres of Zurich and Geneva as well as Southern France, most notably Marseilles, Nice and Lyon. When the virus hit Milan and Lombardy, it amputated much of the economic, cultural and political strength of Europe itself. What many in Italy must be asking is what help could the EU and NATO have provided to address the outbreak sooner, and why was there not more physical help given to Milan and the region when it was apparent that it would be overwhelmed by the pandemic?

Italians are likely to question their place in the EU after the pandemic subsides, considering in great detail the actions by central governments on regions that become increasingly apparent in times of crisis. The region of Alberta in Canada, while ignored almost wholly by the Federal Government and the financial centre in Toronto, has been put under a government created recession over the last few years. With policy designed to halt and disrupt the production of oil and gas from Canada, competitors like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran have increasingly entered the world market and have placed local politics at the forefront of the global energy industry. With the ignored economic turmoil in Alberta came permanent job loss, a loss in local revenue and unfortunately suicides. With COVID-19 ravaging Alberta, Canada and the rest of the world, it is likely the case that we are all becoming Alberta , albeit with the support of our community and central governments, a luxury Albertans have not had for years.

With the pandemic still intensely punishing Northern Italy and having spread in equal fashion to Spain and the rest of Europe, it might be too late for resources from one region to be dedicated to another at this point. Whatever can be done, should be done however as this virus will be conquered by the communities we live in, not the governments at the top. Governments should not get in the way of communities trying to help themselves, and in Canada after giving away 16 tonnes of their emergency PPE stock in February, it seems that this might be the case. In an absurd and insulting move, the Prime Minister of Canada has decided to pick April 1st to give all Federal politicians a raise in pay. He also added a tax that discourages the largest national employers, small and medium sized businesses, from hiring in the middle of a guaranteed recession and likely depression in some regions, namely Alberta. With Canada still taking in flights from hot spot countries and having what is surely the most lax health screening measures globally at its international airports, even as late as April 2020, it might be the case that the lessons ignored from Milan will punish Canada as much as it has Italy, Spain and the Europe.

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The world following the coronavirus pandemic is unlikely to be radically different from the one that preceded it.

The winner of the emerging clean energy race will determine the economic and geopolitical balance of power for decades to come. The United States should lead the way by embracing carbon pricing as a cost-effective and politically viable climate policy breakthrough.

Shipan Kumer Basu, President of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, proclaimed in an interview: “Coronavirus is the latest pandemic that is affecting the international community.  So far, there is no official record on how the coronavirus is affecting the people in Bangladesh.  We believe that 13 Bangladeshis have succumbed to the illness, but the government is not recording these deaths as related to the coronavirus pandemic but rather due to coughing and a cold or a respiratory disease.  The state administration is completely inept in handling the situation.”  These leaves one to ponder, with the time, will Bangladesh become the next Iran?  

According to Human Rights Watch, even after the first person died from coronavirus in Bangladesh, “tens of thousands of people gathered in Raipur in the south of the country in order to pray from the Quran in order to protect them against the pandemic.”  The BBC reported that eyewitnesses reported that up to 30,000 people attended that massive prayer session and a similar massive prayer session in Malaysia caused 500 coronavirus infections.   Interestingly, Basu argued that many religious Muslims in Bangladesh believe that their faith makes them immune from getting the coronavirus, but now many religious Muslims are suffering from the pandemic within the country.  

“While the authorities discouraged mass gatherings, they haven’t offered much else to build up confidence that they are adequately responding to the crisis,” Human Rights Watch added.  “The Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research is currently the only facility with the capacity to run a coronavirus test for a country of more than 164 million.  Testing is only available in the capital city Dhaka, so the thousands who gathered to pray in Raipur for instance cannot be checked for the virus.  There have been reports that the IEDCR’s hotline is not working but meanwhile, some hospitals are apparently refusing treatment to patients displaying symptoms.” 

The Bangladeshi health system is simply not equipped to handle the situation.  As the Andalulou Turkish News Agency noted,  “many have expressed concern that there is a serious lack of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds with facilities with ventilators, shortage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for health care workers, testing kits and other resources, including a national fund to fight the COVID-19 outbreak.” 

Dr. Zafrullah Chowdhury, a Bangladeshi public health activist and founder of Gonoshasthaya Kendra, a rural health care organization with a modern medical facility, proclaimed: “Bangladesh is facing these challenges because of a weak Health Ministry. There is a serious crisis of ICU beds prepared for patients and necessary training and supply of PPE to physicians and health care associates.  If something happens, even one-tenth of what the U.S., Italy, or Spain are facing now in the coronavirus pandemic, then we [Bangladesh] could not deal with such a situation because of insufficient ICU facilities and lacking preparedness in other areas.” 

It is true that Bangladesh recently announced a lockdown.  All Bangladeshis who have recently returned from working in the Persian Gulf are under a 14-day quarantine.  Similarly, all the Rohingya refugee camps have been closed off from the rest of the country.  At the same time, Bangladeshi leader Sheikh Hasina has told her citizens not to leave home unless it is an emergency.  All trains, buses and flights leaving Bangladesh have been suspended until April 4, and the whole country is presently on a national holiday with all the schools and colleges closed, while the government has offered financial relief to the garment industry, which is critical for the Bangladeshi economy yet presently is at risk of collapsing. 

Nevertheless, many critics are pondering whether the Bangladeshi government is a bit late in their response and whether this is enough given that it is one of the more densely populated countries on earth, with a population of 10 million who recently returned to the country after working abroad.   Furthermore, given the nature of Bangladeshi culture, not many Bangladeshis are absorbing the concept of social distancing well.  The Diplomat reported that a large party was held in order to celebrate the release of Bangladeshi Opposition figure Khalida Zia under the supposed Bangladeshi lockdown.  It should also be noted that the Bangladeshi government has hosted events with visitors from abroad during the supposed lockdown as well.  Furthermore, Al Jazeera reported that many Bangladeshis live in crowded urban slums, which makes the task of containing the coronavirus even more difficult.

Even before the Coronavirus pandemic broke out, the Bangladeshi government has been under fire for massive human rights violations.  The US State Department recently reported that the Bangladeshi government systematically murders, imprisons, tortures and rapes political dissidents and members of minority groups.  For example, the US State Department noted that three Bangladeshi soldiers raped a 12-year-old Rohingya girl and photojournalist Shahidul Alam was tortured in prison for “making provocative statements” regarding the student protests.   Similarly, the Bangladeshi Minority Council UK released a reporting demonstrating that Debashish Chakraborty, a failed Bangladeshi Hindu asylum seeker in the UK, was recently killed upon his return to Bangladesh.   Now, there is a fear that things can only get worse.  The discriminatory treatment of the Rohingya has only worsened since the pandemic broke out.  Furthermore, Bangladeshi dissident Aslam Chowdhury was recently re-arrested during the coronavirus pandemic. 

It should be noted that there are some parallels between how Bangladesh and Iran related to the pandemic.  In Iran also, the government tried to hide the outbreak in the beginning and was in denial about its existence.  Initially, the Iranian government refused to quarantine affected areas and Shia holy shrines, believing their faith would protect them from the pandemic, just as many religious Bangladeshis believed Allah would protect them from the virus if they just prayed enough.  

Instead, the Iranian government helped to spread the virus all over the world.  MEMRI reported that the Syrian Opposition blames Iran for the spread of the coronavirus into Syria.  Iraqi dissident Nakeeb Saadoon similarly blames Iran for the pandemic spreading into Iraq.  Foreign Policy reported that Mahan Air, an airline linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, which has been designated as a terror organization by the US and other governments, continued flights to China until after the Iranian Parliamentary Elections, knowing full well the health risk that such flights entailed.  Similarly, it took some time for the Sheikh Hasina government to block off flights into the country.  

When the Iranian government could no longer hide the pandemic due to the existence of mass graves within the country, they started to blame their traditional enemies for the pandemic.  According to Foreign Policy, Hossam Salami, the Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, claims that the virus is a “Zionist biological terror attack” and an “American biological invasion.” The Times of Israel reported that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blames the virus on demons identified in the Quran as “jinn,” or genies and the American intelligence forces working in tandem with them.    If Bangladesh reaches to where Iran presently is, then one can only expect the creation of conspiracy theories blaming religious minorities for the virus, just as Iran blames its traditional adversaries for the pandemic and YNET reported that some Neo-Nazis extremists in America are blaming the coronavirus on the Jews.  If this should happen, then the plight of minorities in Bangladesh will go from horrific to worse.  

 

 

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Empty shelves and Masked Citizens: Photographer: Justin Chin/Bloomberg

With the necessity of applying emergence powers to governments in this and other times or economic, political or heath crises, there needs to still be a culture where the governments are consistently held to account for their use of powers and their actions in relation to the operation of a healthy democracy. No one in the world would be content with a government agent summarily taking their home or arresting them and their family without just cause in the application of justice, but many Emergency powers under Acts of legislature can be greatly abused by governments. These nations who are at risk of losing part of their constitutional rights permanently are those who before their actions on COVID-19, did not have governments that treated the freedom and justice in their society with the respect it deserved.

One of the first detrimental elements of governments that may use Emergency Powers to go beyond its normal reach are those economies that relied on deficit spending during times of healthy economic progress to ensure their control and power over society. Often these type of governments rely on several entrenched interest groups that operate to the detriment of average, everyday citizens. With the shifting of the public purse towards specific interests of those in power, the country suffers. When there is an immediate need to direct funds towards those who produce wealth and work in a society, the cupboards are often bare. This quick dash for cash is almost never taken from the takers who previously profited in a healthy economy, and in many cases the much needed help; via medical or other emergency equipment, is taken by those same people who punished the makers in society previously. The long term issue is that they never get into a healthy economic position again because it is already known that the permanent damage in the long term will not recover from short term stimulus. Without investment, the lost powers during in an emergency may never fully recover either as the takers need to ensure their actions against their own society are never discovered.

We have already seen what can occur when those societies that lack human rights have to deal with an outbreak. Since individuals in dictatorships have little value, saving them also has little priority. In healthy democracies individual rights are fought for and formed the basis of many of their systems of governments. When those rights to property, free speech and freedom of expression are targeted during emergency crises, they are often done not to help society and promote information to help the general public, but are done to hide the truth from the public the government claims to help by using those absolute powers. When a government in a productive time operates by means of altering facts, abusing the justice system and threatening truth tellers in society for holding them accountable, their past actions show that any amount of power will lead to immediate corruption. Corruption is always bad for the economy as we see above, but it also has the effect of permeating the entire systems and infrastructure of a society and spreads like a virus in itself. When the top is corrupt, the rest of the structure quickly learns that the only way to get ahead is to operate within a corrupt system. It is almost impossible to get rid of corruption once it takes place. This is why Emergence Powers and the Acts that enshrined them in many constitutions were placed in with caution. It takes generations to build a healthy society, but often only one generation to destroy it completely.

When we heard messages from leaders, the messages can only be effective and galvanize us all to act to protect the weaker members of our society if everyone contributes towards positive actions in our society. When a government asks much from its citizens, but only commits to the words and ignores the deeds, it creates complete chaos in a society. A lie in the case of the current pandemic should be considered as a criminal act when leaders have knowledge that their acts can hurt people and get them killed. The long term effect of such lies means that any positive actions are questioned and not relied upon. Often characteristics of those governments come from those that are self-interested, corrupt or come from a truly horrific dictatorship that pay little to no attention to their own people. This means, if your country is run by a dictatorship or one that has those dictatorial tendencies, you must rely on smaller, more democratic sub-governments that operate compassionately or push for a change in government and hope that the effect and losses in society are minimal. In all cases, neighbours needs to support neighbours, and communities need to be strong, healthy and open to freedom so the damage is not permanent. These communities must take account of their governments during crises and afterward so that the loss of democratic values does not become permanent.

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