Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

The effects of capital controls on international trade have not been thoroughly examined empirically. Using bilateral industry-level export data across a large number of countries, this paper evaluates how capital controls affect exports. We identify the effect of capital controls on export activities by exploiting the variation in capital controls across countries and variation in external finance dependence across industries. While we find that capital controls adversely affect total exports, analyses of the export margins indicate that the export distorting effect of capital controls works by deterring single and multiple export market entries by exporters, reducing export intensities of exporters, and the range of goods exporters can ship to each market destination. Further analysis in the paper reveals that the export distorting effects of capital controls is invariant of whether the restriction is on inward or outward capital controls, although the relative impact of inward capital control is higher. We also find that capital controls distort exports in OECD and non-OECD countries, although the effect is higher for non-OECD countries. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.

The effects of capital controls on international trade have not been thoroughly examined empirically. Using bilateral industry-level export data across a large number of countries, this paper evaluates how capital controls affect exports. We identify the effect of capital controls on export activities by exploiting the variation in capital controls across countries and variation in external finance dependence across industries. While we find that capital controls adversely affect total exports, analyses of the export margins indicate that the export distorting effect of capital controls works by deterring single and multiple export market entries by exporters, reducing export intensities of exporters, and the range of goods exporters can ship to each market destination. Further analysis in the paper reveals that the export distorting effects of capital controls is invariant of whether the restriction is on inward or outward capital controls, although the relative impact of inward capital control is higher. We also find that capital controls distort exports in OECD and non-OECD countries, although the effect is higher for non-OECD countries. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.

The effects of capital controls on international trade have not been thoroughly examined empirically. Using bilateral industry-level export data across a large number of countries, this paper evaluates how capital controls affect exports. We identify the effect of capital controls on export activities by exploiting the variation in capital controls across countries and variation in external finance dependence across industries. While we find that capital controls adversely affect total exports, analyses of the export margins indicate that the export distorting effect of capital controls works by deterring single and multiple export market entries by exporters, reducing export intensities of exporters, and the range of goods exporters can ship to each market destination. Further analysis in the paper reveals that the export distorting effects of capital controls is invariant of whether the restriction is on inward or outward capital controls, although the relative impact of inward capital control is higher. We also find that capital controls distort exports in OECD and non-OECD countries, although the effect is higher for non-OECD countries. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.

Carbon taxes are an economically effective and efficient policy measure to address climate change mitigation. However, they can have severe adverse distributional effects. Recycling parts of the fiscal revenues to vulnerable, lower income households through cash transfers (social assistance) is an option to also overcome associated political difficulties. This paper simulates the distributional impacts of such a combined policy reform in Peru. In a first step, we assess the distributional impacts of varying carbon tax rates. In a second step, we evaluate different scenarios of recycling revenues through existing or expanded transfer schemes towards vulnerable households. The results indicate that a national carbon tax, without compensation, would increase poverty but have no significant impact on inequality. When tax revenues are recycled through transfer schemes, however, poverty would actually decrease. Depending on the amount to be redistributed and the design of the cash transfer scheme, our simulations show a proportional reduction in the poverty headcount of up to around 17%. In addition, the paper underlines how crucial it is to go beyond aggregate measures of poverty to better identify losers from such reform; and assure that the “leave no one behind” principle of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is addressed.

Carbon taxes are an economically effective and efficient policy measure to address climate change mitigation. However, they can have severe adverse distributional effects. Recycling parts of the fiscal revenues to vulnerable, lower income households through cash transfers (social assistance) is an option to also overcome associated political difficulties. This paper simulates the distributional impacts of such a combined policy reform in Peru. In a first step, we assess the distributional impacts of varying carbon tax rates. In a second step, we evaluate different scenarios of recycling revenues through existing or expanded transfer schemes towards vulnerable households. The results indicate that a national carbon tax, without compensation, would increase poverty but have no significant impact on inequality. When tax revenues are recycled through transfer schemes, however, poverty would actually decrease. Depending on the amount to be redistributed and the design of the cash transfer scheme, our simulations show a proportional reduction in the poverty headcount of up to around 17%. In addition, the paper underlines how crucial it is to go beyond aggregate measures of poverty to better identify losers from such reform; and assure that the “leave no one behind” principle of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is addressed.

Carbon taxes are an economically effective and efficient policy measure to address climate change mitigation. However, they can have severe adverse distributional effects. Recycling parts of the fiscal revenues to vulnerable, lower income households through cash transfers (social assistance) is an option to also overcome associated political difficulties. This paper simulates the distributional impacts of such a combined policy reform in Peru. In a first step, we assess the distributional impacts of varying carbon tax rates. In a second step, we evaluate different scenarios of recycling revenues through existing or expanded transfer schemes towards vulnerable households. The results indicate that a national carbon tax, without compensation, would increase poverty but have no significant impact on inequality. When tax revenues are recycled through transfer schemes, however, poverty would actually decrease. Depending on the amount to be redistributed and the design of the cash transfer scheme, our simulations show a proportional reduction in the poverty headcount of up to around 17%. In addition, the paper underlines how crucial it is to go beyond aggregate measures of poverty to better identify losers from such reform; and assure that the “leave no one behind” principle of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is addressed.

Le projet du plan de relance post-Covid et le budget européen 2021-2027, qui conditionne l’octroi de fonds européens au respect de l’État de droit, a provoqué les foudres de la Pologne et de la Hongrie. Le fond du débat renvoie à l’essence même du modèle illibéral, incarné aujourd’hui en Europe par ces deux pays. 

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Pretoria, 12 February 2024: During a ceremony, the German Minister of Health and his South African counterpart sign the “Together We Care” agreement on the training and assignment to Germany of 20,000 South African nurses. “Together We Care” is part of a comprehensive cooperation agreement. Training centres for medical per­sonnel are to be set up in several South African cities. The agreement also contains commitments to support a vocational training system and the facilitation of visas. The event has received extensive media coverage and a predominantly positive recep­tion. The German weekly newspaper FAZ publishes a front page article with the head­line “Germany can hold its own in global competition”, and the weekly taz welcomes the agreement with an article entitled “Germany remains a country of immigration”.

In Großbritannien sind die Unsicherheiten über die Höhe der Steuerausfälle und der zu zahlenden Hilfen wegen des Brexits und der Covid-19-Pandemie groß. Dennoch er­hielt das britische Militär eine Zusage vom Finanzministerium über 4 Milliarden Pfund zusätzlich, jedes Jahr, für die nächsten vier Jahre. Das Vereinigte Königreich unterstreicht damit seine Bestrebungen nach sicherheitspolitischer Unabhängigkeit und will sich, insbesondere den USA gegenüber, als verlässlicher Partner erweisen. Es erkauft sich mit der Erfüllung des 2-Prozent-Ziels der Nato auch Freiheiten für seine »Global Britain«-Agenda. Großbritanniens Fokussierung auf eine weltweite Einsetzbarkeit seiner Kräfte und neue Technologien macht Streichungen an anderen Stellen wahrscheinlich. Die dann entstehenden (Fähigkeits-)Lücken müssten von Alliierten gefüllt werden.

Nature : Stage rémunéré,
Lieu : Paris 8ème,
Domaine : Événementiel / Communication,
Début : À partir de janvier 2021 pour une durée de 4 à 6 mois.

Rattaché(e) au pôle adhérents de la direction du marketing et de la communication, vous rejoignez une équipe…

Suite à son échange du lundi 14 décembre avec les citoyens de la Convention pour le climat, le président de la République a annoncé qu’il souhaitait apporter une modification de l'article premier en passant par un référendum. Qu’implique cette proposition de réforme constitutionnelle ? Quels enseignements tirer de notre histoire récente ? Quelles sont les chances de succès de cette révision ? Le point avec Olivier Duhamel, professeur émérite de droit…

La crisis del COVID-19 tiene un efecto desglobalizador en las relaciones internacionales, posiblemente mayor del que supuso la Gran Recesión. Además, las relaciones “blandas”, que han liderado la globalización en los últimos años, se están viendo particularmente afectadas por las restricciones a los movimientos internacionales de personas.

L'immolation par le feu de Mohamed Bouazizi, un vendeur de légumes tunisien, en décembre 2010, déclenchait une vague de révoltes, puis d'espoirs de libéralisation dans les pays arabes. Mais les portes de la démocratie, à peine entrouvertes, se sont refermées, constate Dominique Moïsi. Comment en est-on arrivé là ?

Il y a dix ans, presque jour pour jour, le 17 décembre 2010, un petit vendeur de fruits et de légumes…

Das erneute Aufflammen der Corona-Pandemie setzt dem Wirtschaftsaufschwung in Deutschland zum Jahreswechsel ein Ende. Die rasant steigenden Infektionszahlen haben Bund und Länder veranlasst, den bisherigen „Lockdown light“ zu verschärfen und drastische Maßnahmen eines harten Lockdowns zu vereinbaren, um die zweite Infektionswelle zu stoppen. Dies dürfte Berechnungen des DIW Berlin zufolge das Wachstum in diesem und im kommenden Jahr erheblich belasten. Wahrscheinlich ist, dass die Maßnahmen über den 10. Januar hinaus weitergeführt werden müssen, um die Infektionszahlen weiter zu senken. Das DIW Berlin rechnet damit, dass der Lockdown bis Ende Januar andauern muss. In diesem Szenario wird es kurzfristig zu einem erheblichen Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts kommen. Statt um 5,3 Prozent dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2021 lediglich um 3,5 Prozent wachsen.

Infolge der Krim-Annexion haben die Alliierten auf dem Nato-Gipfel 2014 in Wales eine Refokussierung auf Bündnisverteidigung beschlossen. Im maritimen Raum wird angestrebt, die gemeinsame Alliance Maritime Posture, also das maritime Dis­positiv der Nato-Staaten, zu stärken sowie deren maritime Aktivitäten und Zusammenarbeit besser zu koordinieren. Den Vorschlägen des maritimen Kom­mandos der Nato (MARCOM) zufolge sollen zukünftige Koordinationsmodelle vor allem regional ver­ortet und damit fokussierter gestaltet werden. Aktuelle Initiativen betreffen den Schwarzmeerraum und die Ostsee. Die Deutsche Marine ist aus drei Gründen prä­desti­niert, die Kooperation zwischen Alliierten und Partnern im Ostseeraum voranzutreiben: wegen ihrer regionalen Expertise in der Ostsee und an der Nordflanke, ihrer Be­deu­tung als größte Nato-Marine im Ostseeraum, ihrer Verlässlichkeit als Truppensteller für die stehenden maritimen Einsatzverbände der Nato. Das Bekenntnis der deutschen Regierung, innerhalb der Allianz mehr Verantwortung zu übernehmen, könnte auf diese Weise wahrnehmbar mit Inhalt gefüllt werden.

Compte tenu du poids de l’industrie aéronautique dans la région, le dynamisme de l’économie toulousaine dépend en grande partie de celui du marché de l’aviation commerciale. La crise sanitaire ayant pratiquement cloué les avions au sol, la Ville rose traverse aujourd’hui une période encore plus difficile que la moyenne qui teste fortement sa capacité de résilience. Sur le terrain, tous les acteurs sont mobilisés pour éviter que l’aire urbaine toulousaine ne…

La réforme de la PAC pour la période 2021-2027 fait actuellement l’objet de négociations entre les institutions européennes et s’inscrit dans la révision du cadre financier pluriannuel de l’Union européenne. Faustine Bas-Defossez, directrice du Programme Agriculture de l’Institute for European Environmental Policy, revient pour nous sur cette réforme, son contenu et les défis qui restent à relever pour allier protection des agriculteurs européens  et protection…