Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought enlargement back to the top of the European Union’s (EU) political and strategic agendas. Yet current debate increasingly focuses on how to reconcile a credible accession perspective with expanding forms of gradual integration. This paper examines how the EU can sustain an effective enlargement policy in this changing geopolitical environment, using Albania and Montenegro, the Western Balkans’ two frontrunners, as test cases. It combines historical and comparative analyses of previous enlargement rounds with an assessment of current accession dynamics, original comparative data, governance indicators and 12 semi-structured interviews. It is argued in this paper that the key challenge is not to choose between geopolitical and merit-based enlargement but to ensure that gradual integration reinforces rather than substitutes for a credible path to full membership. Comparative analysis shows that enlargement has always combined geopolitical objectives with merit-based conditionality, while its transformative impact has depended primarily on the accession perspective’s credibility. The cases of Albania and Montenegro demonstrate that renewed political commitment since 2022 has restored reform momentum, albeit significant challenges remain, particularly in areas such as the rule of law, democratic governance and administrative capacity. Looking ahead, this paper finds that the principal obstacles to enlargement are increasingly political rather than technical. Furthermore, the next phase of EU enlargement will require balancing credible accession, differentiated integration and stronger support for long-term socio-economic convergence.
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