Defence`s Feeds

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Today, the European Defence Agency (EDA), has published an in-depth analysis on the impact of long-term global, capability and technology trends in defence. “Enhancing EU Military Capabilities beyond 2040” identifies key future trends that will shape capability requirements and technology advances within the next 20 years and beyond. Developed in cooperation with experts from EU Member States, EDA has identified a series of long-term capability trends that are crucial to maintaining military advantage over potential adversaries. The analysis informs part of the EU’s Capability Development Priorities, which EDA will present to EU Ministers of Defence on 14 November 2023.

SEVEN IDENTIFIED TRENDS SHAPING DEFENCE CAPABILITES BEYOND 2040

The main identified trends from the 2023 Long-term Assessment of the Capability Development Plan include multi-domain connectivity; cognitive superiority that allows enhanced situational awareness in near real time; the ability to counter future weapon systems and a greater reliance on space based enabling and operational assets.  The adaptability of armed forces to use both analogue and digital defence mindsets to accommodate legacy military platforms with technological developments is also highlighted as a key trend.

CONTINUED RISE OF EMERGING DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES (EDTS)

EDTs will play a primary role in shaping 2040 military requirements. EDA identifies nine key EDTs and examines them from the capability development perspective, to describe possible military applications and challenges to be considered as part of the future battlespace. Systems emerging from EDTs, as well as their combinations, are likely to have multiple applications in the military context. Autonomous systems are a valuable example in that regard, already being rapidly incorporated into military capabilities, and expected to accelerate in the coming years. Novel disruptive weapons, such as hypersonic and directed energy weapons, will bring new opportunities and challenges for armed forces.

EDA Chief Executive, Jiří Šedivý said: “As we try to envisage what threats we might face in the next decades, one thing is certain: maintaining technological supremacy, through defence innovation is a strategic necessity. By working together to develop stronger and more credible military capabilities, the EU can be proactive in safeguarding its security, asserting its autonomy, and ensuring the safety and well-being of its citizens.”

FUTURE MILITARY CAPABILITY AREAS

The EDA’s analysis finds that the impact of fast-paced technology and the identified capability trends will also shape requirements across all military capability areas, for instance in;

• Information and cognitive superiority as a key aspect in the future operational environment, with command-and-inform capabilities paramount to future requirements.

• A need for new generation of weapons and platforms to produce significant shifts in engagement and protective capabilities.

• Future deployments activities that will be highly impacted by AI and autonomous systems. The operational environment in 2040 and beyond will call for improved and more solid military sustainment and logistics.

GLOBAL FUTURE STRATEGIC FACTORS

An analysis of the main factors that will shape the strategic context in 2040 and beyond was conducted, identifying the trends regarding strategic factors, where persistent digitalisation will significantly affect the character of war. Climate change and its impact will reshape future operational environments. While growing global competition, spread of misinformation, ageing population, cyber threats, and economic factors have been identified as key elements impacting the future of EU security.

EDA TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROJECT FINDINGS PUBLISHED

EDA Technology Watch & Foresight activities were used as basis to develop fictitious scenarios of analysis concerning possible future operational environments, together with official reference on long-term macrotrends. This R&T reference helped to frame specific possible elements of capabilities to face in 20+ years ahead with a consistent assessment on the expected levels of technology maturity, to avoid ineffective science fiction effects.

In that regard, EDA has also published the summary of its ‘Technology Foresight Exercise’, which provides a high-level long-term vision on multiple possible futures for defence, with a special focus of the impact of technologies.  EDA’s Foresight Exercise looks up to 20 years into the future, to provide this strategic vision of the possible impact of technologies in defence in 2040+. To facilitate outside-the-box thinking, different activities took place within the exercise, and it was open to high-level experts from different technological and non-technological domains, as well as from non-governmental bodies, academia, industry, and civil society.

For instance, the widespread digitalisation of the battlefield with developments related to the use of Artificial Intelligence, 5G communication networks, software-based battlefield vision, and pervasive use of unmanned systems was identified as a key opportunity and threat for the future defence capabilities.

BACKGROUND - METHODOLOGY

EDA Enhancing EU Military Capabilities beyond 2040 is elaborated with the participation of capability planners, technology experts and foresight analysts from EU Member States, EDA, EU Military Committee, EU Military Staff and NATO.

Firstly, the analysis regroups the main factors that will shape the strategic context in 20 years and beyond, such as climate and demographic changes, technological advances and growing global competitiveness, together with EDA Technology Foresight analysis to assess technology impact on future capability landscape. Secondly, possible long-term operational scenarios were developed, considering future threats, long-term strategic factors, and technological leaps. Finally, two tabletop exercises (TTX), comprising fictitious scenarios, were conducted to extract preliminary defence capability requirements findings. Experts in military planning, research and technology and foresight analysis from Member States, EDA, EU Military Staff and NATO delivered a deep analysis of the possible implications for future capabilities based on injections of fictitious but realistic groups of events in a given scenario. The analysis of all findings from both Tabletop Exercises delivered a robust Long-Term Capability Assessment to inform the current CDP revision, as well as the future update of Research and Technology activities. 

More Information 

1. Enhancing EU Military Capabilities beyond 2040 – Summary of 2023 Long-term Capability Assessment Publication 
2. 2022 EDA Technology Foresight Exercise Report
3. Fact Sheet
4. Video Explainer
5. EDA Technology Watch and Foresight
6. Tabletop exercises – June 2022 – September 2022

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On 26 October, SEDE will discuss with an expert the study on “Security implications of China-owned critical infrastructure in the European Union”. The study analyses Chinese companies’ access to EU critical infrastructure and exposes how entities linked to the Chinese party-state can gain access to and exert influence on assets that are vital to Europe’s security and defence, including transport infrastructure, critical resources, telecommunications networks, defence sector.
Members will have the opportunity to discuss on the major security risks of the EU's interdependence with China, which is particularly important given the structural geopolitical changes, especially the fallout of the war in Ukraine, climate change and the transformative technological revolution that is underway. In addition, Members will discuss amendments tabled to two SEDE Own Initiative Reports on the subject of "The security and defence implications of China's influence on critical infrastructure in the European Union" and the Subcommittee's flagship Annual Report on the Implementation of CSDP.
Source : © European Union, 2023 - EP

On 26 October, a Hearing is organised on “Rising geopolitical tensions: the protection of subsea infrastructure, including communication cables and pipelines". As defence capabilities are connected digitally, undersea cables are vital for defence and security of EU Member States. The Hearing will therefore aim at assessing the current threat landscape and risks to subsea infrastructure, including different actors and their modus operandi to sabotage subsea infrastructure.
In the light of the recent reports of sabotage on the Finland/Estonia pipeline, the debate will also focus on possible ways to mitigate the risks, in particular via coordinated action with NATO to protect cross-border critical undersea infrastructure.
Draft programme
Poster
Source : © European Union, 2023 - EP

In the framework of a public Hearing on “Third state collusion with Russia: through arms export policy and the circumvention of EU policy and sanctions to prevent supplies to Russia’s military industry”, taking place on 25 October, Members will discuss how to prevent the circumvention, by Russia and its allies, of sanctions imposed in the aftermath of its war of aggression against Ukraine.
The debate focus on the scope and effectiveness of the EU anti-circumvention tool that was adopted with the EU's 11th package of sanctions designed to prevent Russia from acquiring goods for its defence industry. Members will also discuss additional measures to prevent Russia from accessing western military technologies, components and dual-use goods, via third countries, such as China.
Draft programme
Poster
Source : © European Union, 2023 - EP

On 23 October, the Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Subcommittee on Security and Defence will hold a hearing on "The situation in Syria 12 years after the revolution: Standstill, Dynamics, EU response, and Future Prospects?". It will provide a reflection on the political, social and economic consequences of the ongoing conflict, which has shaped the country's development in the twelve years since the Revolution. This hearing will take place during the EP Gender Equality week and
will give an opportunity to highlight the impact of conflict on women and the importance of women's contribution to conflict resolution and sustainable peace, in line with the UN resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security.
Members will discuss with experts the geopolitics of the region under the changed circumstances, in which international and regional actors including Iran, Russia, Türkiye and the United States, but also local groups, are operating. The debate will also contribute to the upcoming AFET Recommendation on the situation in Syria for concretising political and diplomatic fine-tuning of the EU's Syria policy.
Programme and background documents
Source : © European Union, 2023 - EP

As the European Union’s Council and Commission Presidents hold a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington DC, the European Defence Agency and the U.S. Department of Defense are deepening transatlantic cooperation through broad cooperation.

At the last EU-US Summit in June 2021, EU and US leaders committed to working towards an Administrative Arrangement between the European Defence Agency (EDA) and the US Department of Defense (DoD).

Based on the mandate from the Member States, EDA and the U.S. DoD signed their Administrative Arrangement in April 2023 following successful negotiations.

As highlighted by the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, who is also Head of the Agency, the EDA-U.S. DoD Administrative Arrangement provides another pillar to strengthen transatlantic cooperation and the link between the EU and the U.S.

Following the signing of the AA, the cooperation has been initiated in various work strands, namely

• Supply chains
• Standardisation
• Military mobility
• Chemical regulations, such as REACH
• The impact of climate change on defence

In addition to expert consultations, the AA foresees opportunities for high level dialogues with Member States. The first occurrence took place in late September 2023, when Michael Vaccaro, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy at the U.S. DoD, held informal talks on supply chain issues with the National Armament Directors of EU Member States, in a meeting chaired by EDA.

Last week, Dr. William LaPlante, the United States Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment and EDA’s Chief Executive Jiří Šedivý met to take stock of the implementation of the AA and continue the substantial defence dialogue on selected topics within the Agency’s area of expertise.

Both meetings provided an opportunity to take forward concrete cooperation within the AA.

As like-minded partners that share a commitment to a rules-based international order, particularly in support of Ukraine following Russia’s war of aggression, EDA and the U.S. Department of Defense are working through all areas of the AA to share information and deepen transatlantic defence cooperation at expert level.

For more information, please see here.

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