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So it would appear that we will have a Conservative Government with a small majority in the House of Commons. A single party governing over a divided country means the first priority will be dealing with divisions within the United Kingdom – most notably the ‘Scottish question’. Yet of equal importance for this government will be the question of Europe.

David Cameron promised to hold a referendum on British membership of the EU before the end of 2017 if re-elected to Downing Street. Such is the desire to see this amongst his back benchers that Europe might be the issue that maintains discipline among them for other government business – at least until a referendum campaign begins.

Ironically, it may be that the result is the best that those concerned with seeing Britain continue as a member of the EU over the medium term could have hoped for. The UK is now certain to hold a referendum which it would not have had if Ed Miliband had triumphed. Yet, and perhaps more significantly, Cameron’s victory means that the conditions under which this referendum will be held will be more favourable than virtually any conceivable alternative.

For one thing, the ability of the Tory right to talk of a UKIP threat may now be limited; UKIP won only a single seat, which was not claimed by party leader Nigel Farage. More importantly, support for UKIP seems to have affected Labour as much as the Conservatives, notably the defeat inflicted on Ed Balls by the Conservatives, where UKIP polled around 7,000. One potential implication of this is that these backbenchers will find it much harder to bully the Prime Minister when he comes to drawing up the wishlist for his much-vaunted ‘re-negotiation’ of the terms of EU membership.

This in turn increases the likelihood that David Cameron will campaign in favour of continued membership following a re-negotiation that is more likely to succeed. Thus, both major national parties alongside, presumably, the SNP, will come out against ‘Brexit’.

Given this, and despite the suspicion with which the British press – particularly the tabloids – is viewed by Europhiles, it seems likely that only the Daily Express will openly campaign for ‘Brexit’. It will be interesting to see how the Murdoch press approaches the referendum campaign, but my bet would be that metaphors about ‘holding ones nose and voting to stay in’ will be thick on the ground.

Finally – and this would have been the case whatever government had been elected – the business community will come out overwhelmingly in favour of continued membership. However unpopular some in business – notably the banks – may be, their capacity to induce fear was on open display at the time of the Scottish independence referendum and will doubtless be at the fore again in a referendum on EU membership.

Support for British membership has been rising steadily over the last year or so, and this combination of political and broader contextual factors points to a victory for the anti-Brexit camp. For all the uncertainty the prospect of a referendum might seem to bring, there is room for some optimism for those keen to see the UK continue as an EU member.

Of course there are caveats. Perhaps the overwhelming lesson of last night for all those – particularly academics – interested in politics is that polls must be taken with a pinch of salt. And referenda are, of course, particularly unpredictable.

Events in Scotland point to the fact that one referendum may not be enough. For all the rhetoric of some Europhiles that a popular vote on EU membership might ‘lance the boil’ or ‘empty the poison from’ UK-EU relations, it is conceivable that one referendum will lead to calls for a second.

All this being said, it seems that we are finally at a point where the British can have a genuine debate on EU membership. The election campaign warns us that this campaign might not be an exercise in soaring rhetoric and clarity of vision, but that chance for a proper debate is welcome. Were I a betting man – which, after last night, I no longer am – I would place my stake on the public voting to remain in the club.

 

 

IMAGE CREDITS: CC / FLICKR – Council of the European Union

The post Why I would bet on the UK staying in Europe appeared first on Europe’s World.

KYIV, 8 May 2015 – The Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine Ambassador Ertugrul Apakan today urged all sides to ensure a lasting ceasefire during the commemoration events scheduled for this weekend.

"I urge all sides to mark the  commemoration of the events 70 years ago by intensifying efforts to support a sustainable ceasefire – one that endures not only through the holiday period, but also in the coming days and future,” Apakan said.

“I call on all sides to exercise restraint, adhere to full and comprehensive ceasefire and ensure that peace prevails during upcoming weekend and beyond.”

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DRAFT OPINION on the proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Council Regulation (EC) No 1236/2005 concerning trade in certain goods which could be used for capital punishment, torture or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment
Committee on Foreign Affairs
Barbara Lochbihler

Source : © European Union, 2015 - EP

Az amerikai kormány kikényszerítette; orosz műholdas helymeghatározó rendszer Nicaraguában, elektronikus felderítés Kubában. Jöhet az orosz rakétavédelmi rendszer Kanadában, Mexikóban?

Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping "achieved a unity of views on a wide range of issues" during their meeting on Friday.

Über den Ausgang der Wahl in Großbritannien sprachen wir mit dem deutschen Diplomaten Wolfgang Ischinger. Ischinger, der den Vorsitz der Münchener…

Russian ex-Defense Ministry official Evgeniya Vasilyeva was immediately taken into custody in the courtroom.

http://tvnewsroom.consilium.europa.eu/uploads/council-images/thumbs/uploads/council-images/remote/http_7e18a1c646f5450b9d6d-a75424f262e53e74f9539145894f4378.r8.cf3.rackcdn.com/7_5_2013-97043---greece---financial-crisis-july-2012-16-9-preview_210.42_thumb_169_1431082478_1431082478_129_97shar_c1.jpg

Eurozone Ministers meet on 11 May 2015 in Brussels, to discuss the economic situation, growth and jobs.

Download this video here.

http://tvnewsroom.consilium.europa.eu/uploads/council-images/thumbs/uploads/council-images/remote/http_7e18a1c646f5450b9d6d-a75424f262e53e74f9539145894f4378.r8.cf3.rackcdn.com/23e69d6c-f4c0-11e4-963a-bc764e084e2e_4.98_thumb_169_1431082095_1431082094_129_97shar_c1.jpg

EU Ministers of Agriculture and Fisheries meet on 11 May 2015 in Brussels, to discuss the development of organic production in the EU and the simplification of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

Download this video here.

Általános : „Reményt hoztatok erre a sötét helyre. Annak a reményét, hogy együtt felléphetünk az antiszemitizmus, a rasszizmus, az intolerancia és ultranacionalizmus visszatérése ellen” – mondta az EP elnöke fiatalok előtt beszélve Auschwitz-Birkenauban a „Train 1000 to Auschwitz” program keretében május 8-án. Az eseményre 1000 fiatal érkezett Európa különböző részeiből, akik Brüsszelből vonattal tették meg a szimbolikus utat Krakkóig.

Forrás : © Európai Unió, 2015 - EP

Yesterday was a long night on both sides of the Channel. With the final results of UK general elections imminent, the option of a popular referendum on the UK’s EU membership is likely to soon become a reality.

Against this backdrop, FleishmanHillard is examining what an exit might hypothetically mean for the institutional set-up in Brussels – starting with the EP. Have a look at the implications for Parliament in our in-depth analysis posted here.

With 73 British MEPs currently in the European Parliament, a UK exit would significantly disrupt current political group dynamics and impact policy choices. Important questions would be raised over the impact on parliamentary group dynamics and changes to current coalition formations.

Key amongst these changes would be the potential emergence of the ALDE group as a ‘kingmaker’ for political agreement, increasing its influence vis-à-vis the larger political groups.   

 

Additional headline implications of a UK exit

• The Grand Coalition of the EPP and S&D would become more fragile, with a possible return to the traditional left v. right alliances
• With the EFDD no longer a viable group, Marine Le Pen’s Front National delegation might give the formation of a new Eurosceptic group another try.
• The S&D’s centre of gravity might move further towards the left, without its 20 MEP strong Labour delegation.
• Any UK exit would likely necessitate a widespread reallocation of senior EP positions
• Larger Member States might not push for a reallocation of vacated seats

We hope you find this analytical insight interesting, and we will follow up with an analysis of a UK exit on the Council’s political dynamics in the coming days.

Stay tuned!

 

The Institutional Research Unit

 

 

Már beszámoltunk Olvasóinknak arról, hogy 2015. április 16-án bemutatták Kijevben az új Antonov An-178-as katonai teherszállító repülőgépet, melynek nagy jövőt jósol a gyártó. Az An-12, An-26, An-32 típusok leváltására szánt repülőgép 2015. május 7-én teljesítette első repülését, melyről egy képgalériát állítottunk össze Olvasóink számára. Az An-158-ason alapuló, Progress D-436-148FM hajtóművekkel szerelt új An-178-as a Kijev melletti Gostomel repülőtérről emelkedett a levegőbe! Kérjük, tekintsék meg galériánkat!

A HungaroControl Magyar Légiforgalmi Szolgálat Zrt. Kutatás-fejlesztési és Innovációs Platform létrehozásáról 2015. május 8-án együttműködési megállapodást írt alá tizenegy felsőoktatási intézménnyel, a KTI Közlekedéstudományi Intézettel és a Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Számítástechnikai és Automatizálási Kutatóintézetével. Az együttműködés célja a léginavigációs tevékenységgel szorosan összefüggő K+F és innovációhoz kapcsolódó területek feltárása, közös projektek koordinációja, az oktatók, hallgatók kutatómunkájának, nemzetközi kapcsolatépítésének támogatása, valamint európai uniós pályázati lehetőségek kiaknázása.

General : Martin Schulz paid tribute to young people during a visit to Auschwitz-Birkenau: "You have brought hope into this dark place that together we can and will fight the return of anti-Semitism and racism, intolerance, and ultra-nationalism every step of the way." The Parliament President was talking to them as part of the ”Train 1,000 to Auschwitz” commemorative event on 8 May, bringing together 1,000 young people from all over Europe who took a train journey from Brussels to Krakow.

Source : © European Union, 2015 - EP

General : Martin Schulz paid tribute to young people during a visit to Auschwitz-Birkenau: "You have brought hope into this dark place that together we can and will fight the return of anti-Semitism and racism, intolerance, and ultra-nationalism every step of the way." The Parliament President was talking to them as part of the ”Train 1,000 to Auschwitz” commemorative event on 8 May, bringing together 1,000 young people from all over Europe who took a train journey from Brussels to Krakow.

Source : © European Union, 2015 - EP

Russia has changed beyond recognition during 15 years of Putin's stay in power. It is hard to deny the fact that Putin has shown an enormous influence on the country and the world. Despite the tense relations with the West and the current economic decline in Russia, Putin's rating is higher than that of any other Russian leader before him

Május 7-én reggel 8 órakor megnyílt majd néhány órával később le is zárult a  buszbeszerzési pályázat, és annak 2. célterülete.  ( az 1., falugondnoki célterület még nyitva van)

Unser Rückblick auf die wichtigsten politischen Ereignisse der vergangenen Tage steht diesmal im Schatten des unerwartet hohen Sieges der britischen…