SWP

Auf dem G20-Gipfel schlagen geopolitische Spannungen durch: Russlands Angriffskrieg – und die neue Rivalität zwischen China und Indien. Wie konfliktfähig ist G20 noch?

Since 2010, amid a series of overlapping crises, the EU has introduced far-reaching instruments both within and beyond the EU treaties that have expanded its responsibilities. These instruments often have a structure-defining character and/or have served as precedents in subsequent crises. An analysis of the decision-making processes on three key crisis instruments during the Covid-19 pandemic – vaccine procurement, the SURE programme to support national short-time working schemes and the recovery fund NGEU – reveals deficits in the democratic legitimacy of the EU’s crisis governance. The “emergency Article” 122 TFEU, which was used for all three crisis instruments, largely excludes the involvement of the European Parliament. As NGEU was linked to the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework, the EP was involved but politically marginalised by the member states in the Council. Because standard EU procedures were used, the German Bundestag was informed in all three cases and was even able to secure more extensive information rights than the EP. However, this cannot replace European-level parliamentary control. As far as the capacity to act in decision-making processes is concerned, Article 122 TFEU with majority voting allowed for very quick decisions to be made regarding vaccine procurement and SURE, but not NGEU. The model of NGEU – with a link to the Multiannual Financial Framework and lengthy national approval procedures – is therefore not suitable as a model for crisis instruments. There are clear deficiencies in the transparency of decision-making pro­cesses and implementation as well the allocation of political responsibility. In the short term, the EU should increase the transparency of crisis in­struments; in the long term, it should introduce a clear definition of a “state of emergency”, with appropriate limits, into the EU Treaty, while strengthening the role of the EP.

Die Koordination haben Markus Kaim und Stefan Mair übernommen.

Internationale Beratungsfirmen spielen im öffentlichen Sektor der arabischen Welt eine bedeutende Rolle, und sie weiten ihre dortige Tätigkeit massiv aus. So haben Consultancies etwa die saudische »Vision 2030« und ein Jahrzehnt zuvor Marokkos »Grüne Agenda« mitentworfen. Aktuell wächst ihr Einfluss auf staatliche Energie- und Klimastrategien. In der Regel geschieht dies ohne öffentliche Einflussnahme vor Ort. Dies mindert Legitimität und Qualität der erarbeiteten Politiken und unterminiert die lokale Entwicklung. Jenseits der Folgen für die Länder selbst tangie­ren die internationalen Beratungen auch deutsche und europäische Interessen, selbst wenn die Firmen durch hiesige Akteure oder internationale Organisationen beauftragt wer­den. Um negative Effekte zu vermeiden, bräuchte es mehr Kenntnisse und Transparenz zu den Aktivitäten der Consultancies. Kritisch zu hinterfragen gilt, ob, wann und in welchem Maße es sinnvoll ist, internationale Beratungsfirmen zu mandatieren.

Connectivity, especially in the transport sector, has become a ubiquitous issue in the South Caucasus in recent years. Transport connectivity also plays a central role in the European Union’s policy towards the region. As part of its Global Gateway Initiative, the EU has made a commitment that is both value-based and geostrategic. To do justice to this commitment, the EU should consider the different dimensions of transport connectivity and their implications on several levels and in an integrated manner. In particular, the EU should take into account the link between connectivity and questions of political power. The EU could provide support in establishing genuinely inclusive and transparent multi-stakeholder processes and independent project moni­toring. This could point the way towards a more holistic approach to connectivity. The EU should also critically examine its commitment to connectivity for possible conflicts of objectives. The policy debate in Berlin and Brussels would benefit from a more in­tensive exchange with critical logistics, infrastructure and connectivity studies. Their findings could contribute to a more nuanced view of trans­port connectivity and its complexities and ambivalences.

 

Brüssel will für 2040 nachlegen, aber geht die Rechnung auf? Über die Grenzen von Emissionsbudgets.

Over the past 10 years, the de facto alliance of the governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has exercised significant influence over developments in the Middle East. The common goal has been to prevent democratic transformation, stop the rise of political Islam and counter the influence of Iran and Turkey over the region. But joint regional political interventions have so far had little success. More­over, divergences of interest in bilateral relations between these authoritarian Arab states have come to light in recent months. The potential for conflict has become evident with regard to both economic and regional political issues and is only likely to increase in the future. For Germany and the European Union, these divergences of interest between the three countries offer an opportunity to pursue their own goals in the region.

The religious policy innovations that Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev has initiated in the name of liberalisation and reform continue the poli­cies of his predecessor in key aspects. Under the motto “enlightenment against ignorance”, state influence over the religious knowledge taught in educational and research institutions has been strengthened. The country’s Islamic heritage is proactively used for representative purposes and held up as an integral part of national culture. The religious policy measures that amount to a “secularisation” of Islam through scientification and musealisation do not reach large sections of society. For the ordinary believer, Islam is not a science but a matter of belief, a system of rules and convictions that guides the way they live. The liberalisation of the media landscape means that religious advice is available in abundance. It often includes propaganda transporting illiberal ideas, but the state intervenes only selectively. The liberalisation of religious policy has resulted in a growing Islamisation of the population. The authoritarian state headed by President Mirziyoyev is thus being consolidated. Repression remains the means of choice should Islamic milieus seriously challenge the secular state.