Diplomacy & Crisis News

By Col. Tomasz K. Kowalik and Dominik P. Jankowski

It all started with a military exercise in 2008. “Today, Georgia. Tomorrow, Ukraine. The day after, the Baltic states—and later perhaps the time will come for my country, Poland!” Those words were uttered 5 August 2008 by Poland’s late president, Lech Kaczyński, in the presence of five European heads of state who had come to Tbilisi in a gesture of solidarity with the just-invaded Georgia. Almost 10 years later, this statement anticipates Europe’s current security dilemma.

These days, pundits are increasingly speculating on what Russia’s next large-scale military exercise—code-named Zapad-2017—may bring. Will it be just another saber-rattling event that will once again lower the security threshold by adding uncertainty and unpredictability—and make us increasingly numb and desensitized to those large-scale exercises?

This time, will a Russian ally have to reluctantly accept the stationing of more foreign troops on its territory? Or will it lead to yet another Russian military incursion into a neighboring country? Which security Rubicon will be crossed this time?

Understanding Russia’s modus operandi in recent years, and what its large-scale military exercises are designed to accomplish, could offer answers and highlight areas that the international community should closely watch. It also indicates a way ahead for the West.

Train with a purpose

In the last decade, Russia has expanded its military capabilities through regular and specific exercises that have often involved offensive, aggressive and anti-Western scenarios. Such maneuvers enhanced troop readiness status and effectiveness, especially since Russian forces train as they fight.

Those drills also served concrete political and strategic communications purposes as a show of force and a narrative for the national leadership. They intimidate and threaten countries against whom the exercises were designed, but also, in some cases, they disguise military movements—helping Russia prepare and subsequently conduct real military operations.

Timing and geographic proximity are useful. In early August 2008, when Russian troops invaded Georgian territory, they surprised the rest of the world, which was following the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Russia’s 58th Army had just finished its Kavkaz-2008 military exercise, coincidentally occurring just ahead of the invasion (15-31 July) and located just north of the Georgian border.

Fast-forward five years to 2013. Russia re-introduced a military training concept known as the snap exercise. These occur with no-notice and often involve large numbers of troops. After putting into motion four such snap alerts in 2013, Russia conducted another such exercise from 26 February to 3 March 2014. That exercise engaged not only large numbers of airborne troops and transport planes but also long-range aircraft. Officially, the exercise also involved 1,200 amphibious combat vehicles, 880 battle tanks and 120 attack helicopters.

Yet there was more. Under the guise of that exercise, Russia deployed a large contingent of troops to Crimea and its vicinity. The next step was Crimea’s effective capture by troops which officially had taken part in a regular military exercise. The result was Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Now comes 2017. Another large-scale Russian exercise is scheduled for September. Unlike previous snap exercises, Zapad (West) takes place every four years and is announced well in advance. It also encompasses several preparatory episodes and smaller exercises—some of them usually occur with no advance notice—and all of which culminate in these Russian-led multinational maneuvers.

This year’s exercise—set to take place both in Belarus and in western Russia (including the Kaliningrad oblast)—might be among the largest since 1991.

As a possible indicator of Zapad’s size, Russia has ordered more than 4,000 railcars to transport its troops. Based on this, up to two Russian armored/mechanized divisions (around 30,000 military personnel) could be deployed to Belarusian territory.

Along with troops already moved there, the anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) assets brought to Kaliningrad over the last few years, troops traditionally flown into the area during such exercises, and those stationed along Russia’s border with the Baltic states (numbering three new Russian divisions in the Western Military District), it’s clear that Russia can, if it so decides, easily exert significant pressure on its neighbors.

Thanks to this military build-up, all under the pretext of the Zapad exercise, Russia’s options are many. It could, with little or no warning, launch a limited or provocative hybrid operation (to see what happens), test responses on NATO’s eastern flank, or present a security threat to Ukraine where the Russo-Ukraine conflict remains in full swing.

What to watch

Considering this grim view, what are some significant indicators and warnings to watch for? Observers should pay attention to three elements regarding Zapad-2017.

The first is a military deception or maskirovka. Russia has learned to deceive the West by masking and disguising its movements effectively. It continues to hone this technique by mastering novel elements. A recent case in point was last year’s shipment of SS-26 Iskander-M missile launchers—under the guise of a logistics exercise—aboard a civilian cargo ship to Kaliningrad.

Here, Russia’s chronic lack of transparency in continually sending false messages while pretending to be open—essentially offering a mixture of lies and disinformation—aims to encourage the idea that it is actually benign and seeks a true partnership with the West. But the West should be able to distinguish empty gestures from real offers of military transparency.

The second area of concern is Russia’s inclination to train its troops in the use of its nuclear arsenal during these large-scale exercises. According to numerous media reports, during both Zapad-2009 and Zapad-2013, nuclear attacks on NATO member countries were allegedly considered—to the West’s amazement.

Imagine NATO troops training for a nuclear strike on Russian cities. Now consider the many tactical nuclear weapons in Russia’s arsenal and recent developments in doctrine that allow for an easy transition from conventional to nuclear warfare during military operations. Nuclear forces are a factor of consideration for Russia’s neighbors.

Add to that Russia’s obvious violation of the 1987 INF Treaty—which eliminated all short-range and intermediate-range nuclear and conventional missiles, as well as their launchers—and one could conclude that Russia has the potential to be on a collision course with the West.

In that context, Russia’s planned training of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear defense (CBRN) troops should be closely watched. If indeed large CBRN formations engage in such an exercise, it could imply that Russia is getting ready for a potential nuclear development.

The third and final element to monitor is Russia’s long-term military build-up and regional stability. How will Belarus—Russia’s only ally in the region—react and behave during the exercise?

On one hand, it provides a de facto Russian military forward presence, as some Russian units are already permanently stationed there. On the other hand, what if Russia suddenly decides not to leave Belarus with its military build-up after Zapad-2017? This not so improbable scenario might further destabilize the region’s already tense situation. What would NATO and the West do?

What now

In advance of the Zapad exercises, three things should be considered. First, we need to stay the course with the decisions taken at NATO’s Warsaw Summit and make sure the Alliance’s enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) is fully implemented, along with a Multinational Divisional HQ in Poland to better coordinate multinational efforts. The eFP—defensive in nature—should be properly trained and equipped to fulfill its mission of providing deterrence and defense in allied states.

NATO should also make sure the follow-on forces are more regularly exercised, including in a non-permissive environment. Moreover, NATO should keep working on a comprehensive strategy to counter Russia’s A2/AD systems. This should be closely linked with enhancing the NATO Defense Planning Process and investing in the right kinds of military capabilities that can defend alliance territory.

Second, we need better and more robust intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and situational awareness. NATO requires a proper reporting mechanism at the highest political and military levels to function across the alliance.

In essence, NATO members need a solid multinational tool to provide reliable, accurate, measured and sober analysis of intelligence and capabilities along the alliance’s eastern border from Norway in the north, via the Baltic states and the Suwałki gap, down to Romania and Turkey in the south. In today’s security environment, a well-functioning indicator and warning mechanism that can distinguish true posture and intentions from a maskirovka is crucial.

Third, reciprocal transparency is key in avoiding an uncontrollable military escalation or “spillover” effect. Russia frequently violates the provisions of the OSCE Vienna Document, which was designed to ensure transparency in military exercises. Russia often intentionally lowers the number of troops involved in its exercises or splits them—either by providing a small gap in time between events or holding them in different training areas simultaneously under joint command—with the goal of avoiding notification or observation thresholds. Let’s be blunt: essentially, the Russians are trying to dupe the West.

Finally, a growing lack of transparency on the Russian side, combined with an increase in Russian snap exercises (four in 2013, eight in 2014; 20 in 2015 and 11 in 2016) limits room to maneuver with a genuine dialogue and puts political pressure on Western decision-makers.

Since 2016, Poland, along with numerous allies, has strived to avoid situations in which a military incident or a snap exercise might unexpectedly spark armed conflict. Three Polish proposals are now on the table: modernization of the Vienna Document (Chapter III on risk reduction); reciprocal, advanced briefings in the NATO-Russia Council on one Allied and one Russian exercise (preferably Zapad-2017) this year; and voluntary briefings on national exercises in 2017 in the OSCE (Forum for Security Co-operation). Not surprisingly, we are still waiting for Russia to engage on a basis of reciprocity regarding any of these proposals.

Conclusion

Russian military exercises have become a dangerous tool, politically and militarily. The “train as you fight” approach—especially when nuclear attacks are an option—poses a serious threat to the West. It’s not enough that we be prepared to respond militarily. We must also be able to send clear unambiguous messages of unity, cohesion and readiness. As long as Zapad-2017 style exercises are a tool of coercion, no one can take regional stability for granted.

All in all, the West needs to send Russia an unequivocal message that it is ready to engage in confidence-building measures. At the same time we must verify Russia’s actions. We should undoubtedly make efforts to build reciprocal trust, but that will not come immediately.

Finally, Russia needs to understand that if it messes with the alliance, it will pay dearly.

All opinions are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent. Col. Tomasz K. Kowalik, PhD, is director of the Military Foreign Affairs Department at the Polish Ministry of National Defense. Dominik P. Jankowski is head of the OSCE and Eastern Security Unit at the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

This article was originally published by Center for European Policy Analysis.

The post The Dangerous Tool of Russian Military Exercises appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Désormais farouchement persécutée en Chine, la secte Fa Lun Gong s'inspire du taoïsme et du bouddhisme. Mais quelles sont exactement sa doctrine et ses intentions ?

C'est en mai 1992 que M. Li Hongzhi a officiellement lancé, en Chine, sa pratique du qi gong (technique de l'énergie), méthode d'exercices respiratoires, destinés au bien-être physique et psychologique, par la maîtrise du corps et du souffle. Des centaines de versions en ont existé, au cours des âges, les unes se contentant des aspects physiothérapeutiques, les autres ajoutant des contenus de croyance, liés à des interprétations du bouddhisme et du taoïsme. Ainsi en est-il du Fa Lun Gong (loi, roue, méthode), le mouvement de M. Li Hongzhi, dont le message se veut, en plus, universel et transcendant toutes les grandes traditions spirituelles de l'histoire (1).

Né le 7 juillet 1952 à Gong Zhuling, dans la province de Jilin, en Mandchourie, M. Li Hongzhi s'attribue le 13 mai 1951 comme date de naissance. Ce jour coïncide, selon le calendrier lunaire chinois, avec celui de Sakyamuni, qui allait devenir le Bouddha, l'Illuminé. Né de parents médecins, sa trajectoire professionnelle ne sort pas de l'ordinaire : études secondaires inférieures, puis, de 1978 à 1982, emploi dans une résidence de la police et, de 1982 à 1991, dans un organisme de distribution alimentaire de la ville de Changchun. Selon lui, il a été initié au cours de sa jeunesse par plusieurs maîtres bouddhistes et taoïstes, ce qui expliquerait son charisme.

Les croyances du Fa Lun Gong puisent effectivement leurs racines dans le taoïsme et le bouddhisme. Le premier, sous l'inspiration de Lao Tseu, cherchait à rétablir un équilibre dans la vie terrestre, face aux conditions sociopolitiques perturbées de l'époque, et cela par le biais du renforcement de la loi maintenant l'harmonie de l'univers, le tao. Pour le fondateur, les grands équilibres de la nature doivent s'établir entre la terre et le ciel, entre le yin et le yang (éléments masculin et féminin). Le taoïsme fut, dans l'histoire de la Chine dès le IIe siècle avant Jésus-Christ, à l'origine de nombreuses sociétés secrètes, la plus connue étant celle des Turbans jaunes, fondée en 184 de notre ère. Il déboucha parfois même sur des révoltes armées.

Quant au bouddhisme, c'est au Ier siècle après Jésus-Christ qu'il s'implanta en Chine, sous la forme mahayana (le Grand Véhicule). Le Bouddha est celui qui indiqua la voie vers l'accomplissement et la roue est une des expressions symboliques de l'univers, du temps, de l'harmonie. Il prêcha le détachement de tout désir pour atteindre la perfection et proposa de cultiver le savoir (vérité, sagesse), la compassion et la tolérance. Dans sa version mahayana, le bouddhisme chinois fait allusion au karma (situation) de chaque personne comme fruit de ses vies antérieures. Le Bouddha développa aussi un espoir de salut (les sept ciels) et fit une large part au courant messianique (le retour du Bouddha maitriya). Parmi les expressions de ce dernier : la société du Lotus blanc au IXe siècle, le mouvement de Han Shan-tong au XIVe siècle, la réapparition du Lotus blanc au XVIIIe siècle et la révolte des Boxers, en 1900.

Le confucianisme, en revanche, n'est guère présent dans les références explicites du Fa Lun Gong, si ce n'est indirectement, par l'affirmation d'une morale assez stricte et par un sens aigu de la hiérarchie. Il est vrai que, peu intéressée dans un au-delà de la mort, la doctrine de Lao Tseu est surtout un savoir-vivre, dans le sens plein du terme, guidé par la joie plutôt que par la souffrance, et donc peu eschatologique.

A partir de la décennie 80, qui fut aussi en Chine celle de la renaissance de tous les groupes religieux, le qi gong se répandit rapidement, après avoir été interdit pendant l'époque de Mao. On assista à un véritable engouement pour l'aspect psychosomatique de la méthode, dont les manuels étaient même publiés par les presses du parti. Plusieurs formes de qi gong se répandirent, dont le xiang gong (l'énergie parfumée) ou le he xiang zhuang (le vol des cygnes). Les maîtres se multiplièrent. Le fa lun gong, la version proposée par M. Li Hongzhi, connut, lui aussi, un essor rapide, dirigé dès le début par des intellectuels et des cadres retraités qui avaient occupé des postes de responsabilité. Son organisation couvre désormais l'ensemble du territoire chinois et le nombre d'adeptes y serait de plusieurs millions (vingt selon ses porte-parole, deux selon les autorités chinoises).

Vérité, compassion, patience

La base du mouvement est, comme nous l'avons dit, le qi gong (2). Développée depuis plus de deux mille ans, cette technique résulte de la longue tradition chinoise de connaissance du corps. Elle a un lien de parenté avec l'acupuncture et se concentre sur la respiration, en tant que circulation de l'énergie. Elle s'apparente aussi au principe du tai-chi-chuan, l'art martial aux mouvements lents. Pendant longtemps, le qi gong fut une pratique élitiste. La mission que s'est donnée M. Li Hongzhi est de l'élever à « un niveau supérieur » pour en faire une pratique de culture de soi, une délivrance des souffrances accumulées par le karma (état de l'individu acquis par la succession des vies antérieures), afin que chacun puisse retrouver sa vraie nature et poursuivre sa voie vers la libération. Les trois mots d'ordre sont : vérité, compassion, patience.

Le fa lun (roue de la loi) doit être implanté (par télépathie) dans le corps de ceux qui veulent cultiver leur énergie, à l'endroit central de cette dernière dans l'individu, c'est-à-dire sous le nombril. C'est la foi en Li Hongzhi qui accomplit cette implantation, expression miniature du cosmos. Par sa rotation dans le sens des aiguilles d'une montre, la roue entraîne l'énergie cosmique et l'insuffle dans l'individu, lui permettant d'acquérir une puissance sans égale, la santé, l'intelligence, la sagesse, la purification, un haut niveau moral et, finalement, l'illumination. Dans le sens contraire, elle transmet l'énergie chez les autres. Selon M. Li Hongzhi, le fa lun est le seul moyen d'émerger de ce monde corrompu. Cela dépasse donc de loin une simple réinterprétation du qi gong. Le fa lun gong y ajoute une lecture de l'histoire, de la science et des religions et une projection salvatrice, liée à une vision apocalyptique.

En effet, selon M. Li Hongzhi, l'humanité est entrée dans l'ère du grand déclin, et les anciennes révélations, celles du Bouddha, de Lao Tseu, de Confucius, de Jésus, de Mahomet, arrivent à leur fin. On a donc besoin d'un nouveau maître pour enseigner la Loi. Le monde aurait déjà subi quatre-vingt-une destructions. Les actuelles calamités naturelles sont la conséquence de la dépravation des êtres humains. Depuis le début du XXe siècle, les extraterrestres ont pris le contrôle de la Terre (ils sont à l'origine de l'aviation, de l'informatique, du clonage...), leur existence est d'ailleurs attestée par certaines peintures rupestres. Quant à la science moderne, aussi développée soit-elle, elle est loin de pouvoir pénétrer les mystères du cosmos. C'est, dépassant les sciences et les principes éthiques de tous les temps, la loi du Bouddha qui doit être réinstaurée dans sa version rénovée par M. Li Hongzhi. Le fa lun est la vraie Loi, jamais révélée jusqu'à présent.

Ni religion ni mouvement politique

Le fa lun, affirme son fondateur, est aussi l'échelle permettant d'atteindre au détachement vis-à-vis de l'argent, de la réputation, des désirs, des attaches familiales et de sortir des perversions telles que l'alcool, le tabac, la drogue, la musique rock, la peinture abstraite et finalement d'échapper au chaos.

Cependant, le fa lun gong, dépourvu de temple, de rituel, de pasteur ou d'argent, n'est pas une religion. Pour M. Li Hongzhi, toutes les religions sont devenues des théories de la société, des outils politiques et leurs chefs, des personnages politiques (il reconnaît cependant que ses disciples tenteront, très probablement, de faire du fa lun gong une religion). Ce n'est pas non plus un mouvement politique et ses disciples doivent s'abstenir de tout engagement dans ce domaine, en Chine comme ailleurs. Mais cela ne dispense pas de porter un jugement éthique sur les situations concrètes, en condamnant, par exemple, la révolution culturelle ou la corruption répandue dans la société chinoise contemporaine.

Très structuré, modelé sur l'organisation administrative de la Chine, le fa lun gong possède cinq niveaux : le siège central de la Société de recherche du fa lun dafa (la grande loi), dont M. Li Hongzhi est le président, se trouve à Pékin ; les centres généraux, dans trente-neuf localités principales du pays ; trois centres de second niveau (branches) dans chacune de ces juridictions ; les centres locaux au nombre de mille neuf cents et les stations d'instruction, dont le nombre serait de vingt-huit mille. Chaque centre général a un tuteur, nommé par M. Li Hongzhi. Les centres régionaux disposent de quatre sections : diffusion, enseignement, organisation et administration. Au cours des dernières années, certains désaccords sur le contenu de la méthode, l'organisation du mouvement et la définition des rôles ont provoqué de sévères interventions de la part du fondateur.

Une sérieuse inquiétude

La base financière de l'organisation est assurée par la vente de livres, d'emblèmes (bouddhistes et taoïstes), de vidéocassettes, de photos du fondateur, de tee-shirts, de casquettes, etc., par les rétributions pour les cours d'apprentissage (3) et par les dons des adeptes, déposés dans le « tronc des mérites », notamment à l'occasion des guérisons. Les membres se recrutent surtout dans la population urbaine, notamment parmi les cadres moyens, mais aussi parmi les victimes sociales du boom économique (4). Les campagnes font l'objet de prosélytisme, avec un certain succès.

L'expansion rapide du mouvement a créé une sérieuse inquiétude (5). Les autorités ont d'abord réagi avec prudence, face à une situation très différente de celle de la révolte des étudiants de 1989. Cependant elles étaient assez décontenancées par un mouvement qui se voulait apolitique, mais qui, inévitablement, débouchait sur des dimensions politiques. La grande surprise fut de constater sa pénétration parmi les cadres du parti, de l'armée et des services de sécurité.

En 1996, M. Li Hongzhi estima plus prudent d'émigrer aux Etats-Unis, d'où il continue à diriger le mouvement. L'année suivante, il fit l'objet d'un mandat d'arrêt international. Le ministère chinois des affaires civiles déclara l'organisation illégale et une circulaire du parti interdit à ses retraités, à ceux de l'administration et de l'armée de s'engager dans des organisations de masse non reconnues (en clair, le fa lun gong). Pour protester contre les mesures officielles, un sit-in silencieux de quelque dix mille personnes eut lieu, pendant douze heures, à Pékin, le 25 avril 1999, face au Zhong Nan-hai, quartier de la résidence du président Jiang Zemin. Il se termina par une négociation. Parmi les réactions, la plus forte vint du journal de l'armée populaire (6), accusant le fa lun gong d'être une superstition qui sape la stabilité sociale et qui aurait causé la mort de plus de sept cents personnes, après leur refus de soins médicaux.

Un membre du groupe de travail, créé par l'académie des sciences, parle des superstitions qui continuent à fleurir dans la société chinoise, par manque d'esprit scientifique et qui ont refait surface avec l'ouverture idéologique des années 80 (7). Le directeur du centre d'études sur les religions de l'Académie des sciences, M. Zhuo Xin-ping, estime que le fa lun gong possède de nombreux éléments d'un culte religieux, y compris la « divinisation » du fondateur, de son vivant de surcroît (8). Pour cette raison, et mettant en garde contre les amalgames, les autorités insistent sur la distinction à faire entre le fa lun gong et les religions telles que le bouddhisme, le confucianisme ou le christianisme.

Début août 1999, le journal de l'armée populaire publia une série de nouvelles destinées à disqualifier le mouvement. Les autorités exigèrent, surtout des militaires, un désaveu du fondateur et certaines sources parlent de mille deux cents cadres en rééducation. En juillet 1999, un millier de membres furent rassemblés durant quelques heures, par la police, dans le stade de Shi Jingshan. Les sites Internet du mouvement furent fermés en Chine et, dit-on, piratés à l'extérieur. Bref, les autorités considèrent que le mouvement constitue un risque sérieux pour la stabilité d'un pays engagé dans un changement socio-économique profond ; elles estiment qu'il constitue surtout une menace pour la cohésion idéologique de ses cadres, attirés par la pratique du qi gong et, dans la foulée, influencés par une doctrine ésotérique. C'est surtout le secteur dit conservateur du parti qui brandit le spectre de la déviation et la nécessité de la répression, espérant à cette occasion renforcer sa propre influence. Le secteur plus libéral, en revanche, insiste surtout sur la nécessité d'éduquer plutôt que de réprimer.

Les milieux religieux, tant bouddhistes que taoïstes, ont aussi fortement réagi. C'est surtout le cas des premiers, qui publièrent un ouvrage accusant M. Li Hongshi de superficialité dans le recours au bouddhisme et estimant qu'il abuse du renouveau spirituel de la société chinoise en commercialisant le qi gong (9). Quant à l'Association chinoise de recherche sur le qi gong, elle avait agréé le fa lun gong en 1993, mais elle lui retira l'affiliation en 1996. En effet, M. Li Hongshi, ayant été convoqué pour répondre aux critiques qui lui étaient faites, refusa de comparaître. L'association lui reprochait de ne pas respecter les règles et les objectifs de la méthode, en y mêlant des croyances qui lui sont étrangères (10).

La société chinoise traverse une période difficile, faite d'incertitudes et de doutes. L'ouverture au marché a certes accéléré la croissance économique, mais elle a aussi accru les inégalités sociales et régionales et a fait naître la crainte du chômage pour des dizaines de millions de personnes, dans les secteurs industriel et urbain, comme dans les campagnes. Les projets de création d'un nouveau tissu urbain et les efforts de planification pour relever ces défis ne peuvent accomplir de miracles. Au cours des deux dernières années, la croissance s'est essoufflée. Une importante corruption s'est développée dans la classe politique.

Il faut y ajouter le vide idéologique dû à la perte de crédit du maoïsme, qui, malgré ses excès, avait mobilisé beaucoup d'énergies, alors que l'introduction du « socialisme de marché » débouche surtout sur l'enrichissement de quelques-uns, l'accentuation de l'individualisme et la déception d'un grand nombre. Par ailleurs, le désir de démocratisation interne, très présent chez les intellectuels et dans les jeunes générations, se fraye difficilement un chemin. Les éléments conservateurs du parti ont voulu réprimer cette aspiration, dans le but d'éviter le désastre politique de l'ex-URSS. Les éléments les plus ouverts à une évolution veulent, au contraire, la canaliser et aider les individus à se réorienter.

Etablir des équivalences avec d'autres mouvements de l'histoire de la Chine est une entreprise aléatoire. En effet, le fa lun gong n'a guère de points communs avec les revendications des étudiants qui, en 1989, réclamaient un changement politique. Dans le cas présent, M. Li Hongzhi déclare lui-même que le gouvernement ne doit pas traiter le mouvement en ennemi et que le réprimer lui ferait perdre son crédit. On l'a comparé aussi au Mouvement du 4 mai (1919), mais celui-ci visait à introduire la Chine dans la modernité : science et démocratie étaient ses mots d'ordre. Les Boxers, en 1900, étaient une réaction de la Chine profonde contre la domination étrangère. La révolte de Taiping, à la fin du XIXe siècle, fut provoquée par les ruptures sociales, fruit de l'introduction du capitalisme agraire, auxquelles s'ajoutaient les conséquences de la guerre de l'opium, et son initiateur avait des références idéologiques chrétiennes. Chaque mouvement, né dans des périodes de déséquilibres sociaux et politiques, avait sa spécificité. Il est un fait, cependant, que les courants millénaristes, en Chine, ont toujours constitué un défi pour l'Etat.

A Taiwan, on parle d'un second 1989. Aux Etats-Unis, le fa lun gong est présent comme un mouvement de relaxation et, souvent même, comme un mouvement religieux réprimé par le régime chinois. Certains milieux politiques veulent l'encourager dans la nette intention de déstabiliser le régime et n'hésitent pas à parler de persécutions et de dizaines de milliers d'arrestations, ce que le Washington Post du 6 août 1999 a démenti.

Hors de Chine, les progrès du mouvement sont d'ailleurs spectaculaires, même si les chiffres cités sont probablement gonflés (plus de soixante millions). L'intérêt dans les pays anglo-saxons est réel. En avril 1999, on ne comptait pas moins de 3 580 sites en langue anglaise sur America Online. Fin mars, un congrès était organisé dans un des grands hôtels de New York. De nombreuses universités, parmi les plus prestigieuses, sont devenues des lieux privilégiés de la présence du mouvement, notamment aux Etats-Unis et en Angleterre. Les 3 et 4 juillet 1999, une rencontre eut lieu en France, à Issy-les-Moulineaux. En fait, le public non chinois est surtout intéressé par la pratique du qi gong, sans exclure cependant une certaine attraction pour son caractère messianique. Il est frappant de constater que dans les milieux universitaires, tant chinois qu'occidentaux, ce sont des spécialistes des sciences exactes (chimie, biophysique) qui deviennent le plus souvent les porte-parole du mouvement.

Si le fa lun gong connaît un tel succès en Occident, c'est qu'il correspond aussi à un bouleversement des valeurs. Il n'est d'ailleurs pas le seul. Que l'on pense au New Age, né aux Etats-Unis, dans le courant des années 60 et développé, en Europe, peu de temps après 1968 (11), ou encore à l'Eglise de l'unification du révérend Sun Myung Moon, qui, par ailleurs, est devenu un empire économique (12). Autre cas que celui du Brésilien Paulo Coelho, publié en quarante-deux langues et dont les textes se sont vendus à vingt-trois millions d'exemplaires (13).

(1) Cet article a été préparé avec la collaboration de plusieurs spécialistes chinois dans le domaine de l'histoire des communications et des religions, et, grâce à cela, il a pu s'appuyer sur des sources chinoises.

(2) Eléments du contenu de croyance repris aux deux ouvrages de Li Hongzhi, respectivement : China Fa Lun Gong (4e édition anglaise), Fa Lun Fo Fa Publishing Cy, Hongkong, 1998, et Zhuan Fa Lun (3e édition anglaise), Fa Lun Fo Fa Publishing Cy, Hongkong, 1999.

(3) Ces deux activités auraient rapporté dans la seule ville de Chang Chung, au cours de l'année 1993-1994, une somme de 1 217 300 yens (plus ou moins 143 000 dollars). Dans la ville de Hai Binh, un seul cours de quelques jours aurait rapporté 20 000 yens (2 350 dollars). Quotidien du peuple, Pékin, 23 juillet 1999.

(4) Lire Roland Lew, « Sur les flots agités du développement chinois », Le Monde diplomatique, décembre 1994.

(5) Lire Roland Lew, « En Chine, un Etat autoritaire mais faible », Le Monde diplomatique, octobre 1999.

(6) Jie Fang Bi-Bao (Le Quotidien de la Libération).

(7) Il s'agit du sociologue Jing Tian-hui, membre de l'Académie [Le Quotidien du peuple, 6 août 1999]. Rappelons que la sociologie a été rétablie en Chine à partir de 1979.

(8) Lors d'une mission à la télévision (Le Quotidien du peuple, 1er août 1999).

(9) Ch'en Xing-Qiao Fuo-giao (Le Qi Gong bouddhiste et le fa lun gong), Maison d'édition des cultures religieuses, Pékin, 1998. M. Ch'en Xing-Qiao est membre de l'Association bouddhiste chinoise.

(10) Ibid.

(11) Ce « nouvel âge de l'humanité », selon Ann Bailey, s'inspire à la fois de la sagesse du Bouddha et de la science contemporaine (la cybernétique), mais il n'hésite pas à faire allusion aux secrets des pyramides, à l'astrologie ou au mystère de l'Atlantide. Pour lui, l'énergie forme le tissu ultime de la réalité et il faut se l'approprier. Une Ere de bonheur, de paix, de spiritualité est annoncée, s'inspirant entre autres de L'ère du verseau, de Paul Le Cour, et à laquelle l'homme moderne, malade, est appelé à accéder en actualisant son potentiel cérébral par le recours à des méthodes enseignées dans des centres compétents (Actualité des religions, n°8, Paris, septembre 1999).

(12) Né en 1920, le révérend Moon, d'origine coréenne, affirme avoir eu une apparition du Christ en 1936. Son mouvement s'implanta aux Etats-Unis en 1952 et en Europe à partir de 1962. Il connaît une forte pénétration actuellement en ex-URSS.

(13) Paulo Coelho est un ex-musicien de rock et un auteur à succès qui, en 1988, affirmait consulter son maître à distance, par le biais d'un voyage astral et qui fut, plus tard, « transformé en mage », lors d'un pèlerinage à Compostelle, devenant un grand apôtre de la quête spirituelle personnelle.

Suite au sondage réalisé sur ce blog, nous avons le plaisir de vous offrir avant la sortie officielle du numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n° 2/2017), l’article que vous avez choisi d'(é)lire : « La Communauté économique de l’ASEAN : un modèle d’intégration original », par Françoise Nicolas, directeur du Centre Asie de l’Ifri.

À sa création en 1967, la principale préoccupation des cinq membres fondateurs de l’Association des nations d’Asie du Sud-Est (ASEAN) est d’ordre politique : aussi leurs ambitions sont-elles modestes sur le plan économique. Selon la Déclaration de Bangkok, le projet original de l’ASEAN avait pour objectif « de favoriser la croissance économique, le progrès social et le développement culturel dans la région et de promouvoir la paix et la stabilité ». Le développement étant perçu comme le meilleur rempart contre le danger communiste, l’objectif est alors de tout mettre en œuvre pour le faciliter ; mais il n’est aucunement question pour les cinq pays fondateurs de s’engager sur la voie de l’intégration économique sur base institutionnelle. Les initiatives gouvernementales de coopération économique n’interviendront que beaucoup plus tard. Au fil du temps, sous la pression de forces et d’événements extérieurs, les projets se sont pourtant précisés, aboutissant à la mise en place d’une Communauté économique qui constitue aujourd’hui l’un des trois piliers de la Communauté ASEAN.

Ce parcours singulier de l’ASEAN en matière d’intégration économique, qui mêle acteurs étatiques et non étatiques, mais aussi dynamique de marché et logique institutionnelle (voire capitalisme d’État), se démarque des expériences observées dans d’autres régions, et notamment en Europe. Il reflète en outre une constante oscillation entre la poursuite d’objectifs économiques purement nationaux (en premier lieu le développement), et une coopération régionale qui passe par de nécessaires compromis. Cette ambivalence explique aussi le décalage entre les ambitions affichées et les réalisations observées sur le terrain, même si de réels progrès ont été accomplis au cours des 50 dernières années. La question qui se pose aujourd’hui est de savoir si, et comment, les pays de l’ASEAN parviendront à maintenir leur stratégie dans un contexte régional mouvant où l’Association, en tant que groupe, pourrait jouer un rôle stabilisateur.

[…]

La CEA et au-delà

Afin de faire de l’ASEAN une région prospère, stable et hautement compétitive, la CEA est censée créer un marché unique pour la production et la circulation des biens, des services, du capital et du travail qualifié au sein de l’Association, marquant le point d’orgue d’un long processus d’intégration économique s’appuyant sur la réduction progressive des obstacles aux échanges intra-zone. […]

Au-delà de la CEA, l’ASEAN pourrait voir son rôle se modifier profondément dans l’organisation de la région Asie-Pacifique dans les années à venir. Une caractéristique importante de la CEA tient en effet au 4e objectif évoqué plus haut, l’intégration des économies de l’ASEAN dans l’économie mondiale. Dans la logique du régionalisme ouvert qui leur est chère, les pays de l’ASEAN se sont engagés depuis quelques années, à titre individuel, dans la négociation d’accords commerciaux préférentiels. En 2016, Singapour était signataire de plus d’une trentaine d’accords de libre-échange, la Malaisie et la Thaïlande d’une bonne vingtaine, le Vietnam d’une quinzaine. Parallèlement, l’ASEAN a suivi le même chemin, négociant notamment des accords de libre-échange (dits ASEAN + 1) avec ses grands partenaires d’Asie-Pacifique (Chine, Corée du Sud, Japon, Inde, Australie et Nouvelle-Zélande). En novembre 201221, l’ASEAN a lancé, à l’initiative de l’Indonésie, un projet de grand partenariat économique régional (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – RCEP), dont l’objectif est de permettre la consolidation des cinq accords ASEAN + 1. […]

Alors qu’avec le TPP, l’ASEAN se trouvait marginalisée comme acteur institutionnel, et divisée en tant que groupe puisque seul quatre pays membres étaient parties à la négociation (Brunei, Singapour, Malaisie, Vietnam), avec le RCEP au contraire l’ASEAN retrouve son rôle central, et reprend en quelque sorte la main sur l’organisation de la région. Il est vrai que le rôle « central » et moteur de l’ASEAN dans le projet RCEP serait grandement facilité si la Communauté économique de l’ASEAN (CEA) était vraiment achevée, ce qui n’est pas encore tout à fait le cas. Il reste que le retrait américain du TPP offre à l’ASEAN une chance inespérée de faire du RCEP la clé de voûte de l’organisation des échanges en Asie de l’Est. […]

Le chemin parcouru par les pays de l’ASEAN ces cinquante dernières années est spectaculaire. La région abrite des économies extraordinairement dynamiques, étroitement insérées dans les réseaux mondiaux de production. Avec un PIB d’environ 2600 milliards de dollars, l’ASEAN en tant que groupe constitue la troisième puissance économique en Asie (derrière la Chine et le Japon, mais devant l’Inde), et la cinquième dans le monde. Et l’ASEAN en tant qu’institution n’est pas étrangère à cette performance : en pacifiant les relations entre les États membres, et en accroissant l’attractivité de la région, elle a incontestablement contribué à la réussite de chacun de ses membres, et facilité leur insertion dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales.

Même si l’Association s’est progressivement transformée pour s’adapter aux défis de son environnement, la construction économique régionale mise en place est marquée par deux grandes constantes. Son régionalisme est ouvert et développemental, ce qui la démarque des entreprises d’intégration économique observées dans d’autres régions, et explique les tensions récurrentes entre agendas nationaux et objectif d’intégration. Il reste que ce groupe, quelle que soit sa malléabilité, peut jouer un rôle moteur dans la structuration économique de la région Asie-Pacifique. Avec les bouleversements observés depuis peu, l’occasion lui est offerte de devenir plus proactif, de prendre son sort en main, et au-delà celui de l’ensemble de la région d’Asie. L’ASEAN saura-t-elle saisir l’occasion ? Tel est l’enjeu des prochaines années.

Pour lire l’article en intégralité, cliquez ici : nicolas_communaute_economique_asean.pdf (21 téléchargements) .

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

(Own report) - Following the recent terror attacks, international pressure has been mounting on a major supporter of global jihadism - Saudi Arabia, a close German ally. In London, leading politicians from the opposition are calling on the British government to finally publish an investigation of the - presumably Saudi - financiers of British jihadis. Protest against the western powers' pact with the Saudi ruling clan is being raised also beyond Europe's borders. The youth league of the world's largest Islamic organization, the Indonesian Nahdlatul Ulama, for example, has published a declaration accusing the West of ignoring the direct correlation between the Saudi Salafist crusade "and the spread of terrorism worldwide." For decades, Saudi Arabia has been promoting Salafi jihadi milieux throughout the world - partly in alliance with Germany, partly with Berlin's de facto approval - significantly strengthening them in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Sahel, North Africa, the Middle East and the European countries with Muslim populations, such as Kosovo, as well as in Southeast Asia - in Indonesia and in the Philippines. While milieux supported by Saudi Arabia have increased their terror also in Western Europe, Berlin is continuing its cooperation with Riyadh.

In an exclusive interview, Syrian Kurdish leader Sherkoh Abbas explained a novel idea for promoting peace between Israel and the Arab world.

He argued that by establishing an independent Kurdistan, the Arab world will be forced to be more focused on the Iranian threat and Neo-Ottoman ambitions rather than thwarting an independent Kurdistan in order to save Iraq and Syria as independent Arab states and compromising with the Iranians and Turks on the Kurdish issue. This enables them to cooperate more with Israel.

In an exclusive interview, Syrian Kurdish leader Sherkoh Abbas introduced a novel idea for promoting peace between the State of Israel and the Arab world. The center of his idea revolves around the fact that both the Kurdish and Jewish peoples are outcasts in the Middle East, who are despised beyond logical reason. According to his arguments, the Arab countries will always unite with Turkey and Iran in order to thwart Kurdish independence in order to keep the Kurdistan regions of Iraq and Syria within these current Arab states and until recently, also to be against Israel.

In recent times, the Arab countries have warmed up to Israel, as demonstrated by Israel’s close relationship with Sisi’s government and Israeli Communication Minister Ayoob Kara’s meeting in Ecuador not too long ago. However, despite these positive developments, Abbas argued that Israel’s rapprochement with the Arab world rests on shaky grounds for he claimed that even if the Arab countries are wary of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions and the Shia Crescent to the point that they are willing to cooperate with Israel, their desire to thwart Kurdish independence allows them to overcome their differences with the Turks and Iranians and to unite with their enemies, a reality which makes rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world more difficult.

“When I was in Syrian Kurdistan, most of the Arabs including the Syrian Opposition and the Syrian regime views Israel as a dagger in the heart of the Arab world from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic,” Abbas related.

“They view the Kurds as creating another Israel and would be another blow or dagger in the Arab heartland and the Kurds are Zionists in disguise. For the Arab world, the Kurds are 40 million strong and they don’t deserve a state but they want another Arab state.”

“They attack Sykes-Picot for creating artificial borders but then they defend it regarding the Kurds in order to thwart an independent Kurdistan. These borders were used to defend the colonial borders. Turkey wants to be a Khalifa or Sultan but that clashes with the Shia Crescent yet on Kurdistan, they agree and work together. The US and Sunni countries feel they can recruit them against Iran but it is a mistake for they will always make an agreement on the Kurdish issue. Thus, allowing the Kurds to be freed of the Arab nations of Iraq and Syria would pave the way down the road for the Arabs not to have a common interest with the Iranians and Turks to thwart Kurdish independence.”

“For me, it is ridiculous that we got no hope in Turkey or among Syrian Arab Sunnis or the Sunni Arab states. This shows you cannot rely on the Arab states. They will insist on a Palestinian state or getting the Golan back.”

According to Abbas, only the Kurds are Israel’s natural allies: “They can stop the Sunni challenge, Neo-Ottoman ambitions and Iran. They have positive political capital. Now is the time to work with them.”

In recent times, Abbas noted that Iran, Russia, Turkey and Syria started to spread conspiracy theories in order to undermine Kurdish gains once they started to work with the Americans and tried to delink from Assad and Russia: “Russia is painting a picture that the Kurds are colliding with ISIS.”

Abbas compared this to elements of the Syrian Opposition who accused Israel of cooperating with the Al Nusra Front: “They always invent conspiracies. Iran and Assad have some element and units called ISIS on demand that attack the minorities and Kurds in order to force them to cooperate with the regime. Also, they want to portray Sunnis or any rebels as ISIS terrorists to get Iran and Assad out of isolation and to make them more favorable and acceptable or better than the alternative. When Iraq started to take shape towards being divided and the same in Syria, they spread conspiracy theories or accusations. They say America and Israel are trying to divide Syria. This is what Turkey is spreading. Iran and Assad also.

“Now, also Russia portrays a gap between NATO and Turkey. Initially, they tried to see the Kurds as the victims and rightly so. Then, they felt uncomfortable after they witness the Kurds cooperating with the U.S. and so they are trying to derail the process of the Kurds getting gains in Syria and Iraq. The best way to counter this is to support an independent Kurdistan.”

Abbas argued that an independent Kurdistan won’t just block the establishment of a Neo-Ottoman Empire or the Shia Crescent or Iran aiding Hezbollah as well as other terror groups. He claimed that if the establishment of an independent Kurdistan in Syria and Iraq becomes a reality, the Arabs will view it as a loss for the Arab homeland but nevertheless, a fait accompli just like the State of Israel and this will make it easier for Israel to cooperate with the Arab countries.”

“Once an independent Kurdistan in the heartland of the Arab world is a fait accompli, he claimed that the Arabs will once again view Iran and Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman ambitions to be their number one threat, allowing Israel to face no obstacle in their rapprochement with the Arab world for without this being a reality, they can always forget their issues with Turkey and Iran in order to unite to thwart an independent Kurdistan. Without an independent Kurdistan coming into fruition, he stressed that they would have no reason to compromise.”

“Thwarting an independent Kurdistan will always keep them together no matter how many differences they got,” Abbas stressed. “Kurdistan has so much oil and water resources that they will never give up on. The Iranian Shah and Saddam Hussein made an agreement. Saddam essentially gave up territory to the Shah in order for the Kurds to stop being armed and the Kurds lost in the 1970s. He was willing to give up territory just so that they won’t give up their rights over Kurdistan.”

“They felt that giving territory to Iran is good to keep Kurdistan in the North. Turkey and Iran had many disagreements in recent weeks but what brings them to the table is the Kurdish glue. Everything else is minor compared to the Kurdish issue. But by having the Arab Kurds go their own way, then they will have to face the reality. They will only worry about Iran and the Neo-Ottoman Empire that can threaten the Saudi leadership. That will force them to reach out to the Kurds for they are the buffer that can stop those two countries from marching on them.”

He also argued that this in turn will enable the Arab countries to support peace with the State of Israel without any other interests distracting from it: “Furthermore, Kurdistan can be a new beginning in that part of the world besides Israel in promoting democracy and coexistence, a positive influence that can help many Muslims in that part of the world to adopt moderate Islam.”

The post Syrian Kurdish leader: “Peace is Obtainable by Supporting an Independent Kurdistan” appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

The Art of the Deal?: Chinese president Xi Jinping and U.S. president Donald Trump.

Russia isn’t the Trump administration’s only foreign conflict of interest problem. President Donald Trump, his daughter/senior adviser Ivanka Trump, and son in-law/senior adviser Jared Kushner also have a growing China problem.

At a Beijing hotel on May 6, Jared Kushner’s sister Nicole Kushner Meyer appeared before a crowd of wealthy Chinese investors to pitch an investment scheme for a Kushner Companies luxury apartment complex in Jersey City, New Jersey known as “One Journal Square” that would help Chinese investors secure U.S. visas and green cards. Meyer repeated her pitch to investors in Shanghai on May 7, and planned to do so in other Chinese cities. Meyer highlighted her ties to the Trump administration through her brother Jared, raising concerns over conflicts of interest and drawing harsh criticism back home in the United States (Video: Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, Reuters).

Negative media attention to the Kushners’ activities in China led to a half-apology from the Kushners and cancellation of further Kushner appearances in China, but doesn’t seem to have dampened Chinese enthusiasm for the Kushner “visa-for-sale” scheme. This is not the only time that conflict of interest questions have been raised regarding Trump-Kushner business ties with China.

A brochure for Jared Kushner’s sister Nicole’s event in Beijing read: “Invest $500,000 and immigrate to the United States.” The visa scheme in question is the controversial EB-5 visa or “golden visa” program for wealthy investors (which has been called “the ‘crack cocaine‘ of real estate financing”), from which the extended Trump-Kushner real estate family has previously raised Chinese money, and which President Trump extended “without long-promised changes” the day before Nicole Kushner Meyer appeared in Beijing.

Nicole Kushner Meyer, in black, speaks at EB-5 investment pitch in Beijing, May 6 (ABBAO).

The Kushners’ partner in China is Beijing-based Qiaowai [Overseas] Group (侨外移民 or 侨外集团, QWOS). Other U.S. partners for the project include New Jersey private equity firm KABR Group and Florida-based EB-5 “shady broker” the U.S. Immigration Fund (USIF). Qiaowai CEO Ms. Ding Ying (丁颖, aka Vivian Ding) attended President Trump’s inauguration in January 2017 and reportedly met Trump and members of the Trump-Kushner family. Ding has touted her attendance at the inauguration for marketing purposes in Chinese media and and at Kushner events in China.

As veteran China reporter Bill Bishop observes, it appears that Ding “knows how to work American politicians” and how “to navigate the swamp to hawk EB-5s”: In April 2016 according to Chinese media, former New York mayor and Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani appeared with Ding and USIF chairman Nicholas Mastroianni II in Beijing to promote a Times Square EB-5 investment scheme. Giuliani appeared again with Ding and Mastroianni at a high-priced November 2016 EB-5 “forum and showcase” in Shanghai. Incidentally, Mastroianni also contributed $100,000 to Trump’s inauguration fund (See also New York Times).

Qiaowai CEO Ding Ying at Trump inauguration (ABBAO),

Rudy Giuliani and Ding Ying promote EB-5 scheme in China (QQ).

The Kushners were apparently not prepared to deal with U.S. media attention to their activities in China. Journalists from The New York Times and The Washington Post were forcibly removed from the event in Beijing, and reporters were barred from the event in Shanghai. Reporters in Beijing were told, “This is not the story we want.” Nicole Kushner Meyer hung up on a reporter from The Wall Street Journal when contacted by telephone in Shanghai.

Washington Post researcher Congcong Zhang wrote on Twitter that she was threatened for covering the Beijing event. “I was threatened, harassed and forced to delete recordings and photos of the Kushner family recruiting Chinese investors in U.S. Green cards,” said Zhang, adding that “People from the Chinese company that works with the Kushners on the investment visa surrounded me and grabbed my shoulder…. They tried to force me to leave, then grabbed my phone. I could only get it back if I agreed to delete all recordings and videos.”

Kushner investment pitch in Beijing, May 6 (Javier Hernandez via Twitter).

The Kushners’ activities in China have drawn harsh criticism from across the U.S. political spectrum. To many observers it appears that the extended Trump-Kushner family is treating the U.S. presidency as a business platform. Nor would this be the first time the Trump-Kushners have been accused of running the White House “like a family business.”

“It’s highly problematic,” Noah Bookbinder, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, told National Public Radio. “It appears that Jared Kushner’s family business is using his name and his official position to bring in investment.” Bookbinder and former Obama administration ethics adviser Norman Eisen wrote in The Washington Post that “this sales pitch is clearly unacceptable” and that “Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump should recuse themselves from China policy.”

Former George W. Bush administration ethics adviser Richard Painter called the Kushners’ actions in China “corruption, pure and simple,” an “abuse of power,” and “very, very close to solicitation of a bribe.” Painter also wrote on Twitter that incoming French president Emmanuel Macron “should ask that the Statue of Liberty be returned to France and replaced with a giant statue of Jared Kushner with his hand out.”

Kushner Companies has since half-apologized for name-dropping its White House connections to promote its investment scheme. “Ms. Meyer wanted to make clear that her brother had stepped away from the company in January and has nothing to do with this project,” said a Kushner Companies spokesperson, “Kushner Companies apologizes if that mention of her brother was in any way interpreted as an attempt to lure investors. That was not Ms. Meyer’s intention.”

Following extensive and embarrassing media coverage of its activities in China, Kushner Companies backed out of planned further appearances in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. According to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post, however, rich Chinese investors are more eager than ever to invest in the Kushners’ EB-5 scheme, and showed up in droves to the event in Shenzhen despite the Kushners’ absence. As Reuters reports, Qiaowai’s promotional materials have continued to tout its Trump-Kushner connections and to “guarantee” green cards for investors in violation of U.S. EB-5 rules.

Now U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is calling for an investigation into “potentially fraudulent statements and misrepresentations” by Kushner partners Qiaowai and USIF. In a May 25 letter to the Department of Homeland Security and the Securities and Exchange Commission, Grassley wrote that “a closer look” at Qiaowai and USIF is “clearly warranted, as reports suggest both companies have long employed questionable practices.” Additionally on June 1, Democratic members of the Senate and House Judiciary Committees sent a letter to Kushner Companies requesting information on how it has used the EB-5 program and expressing concerns that Kushner Companies and its partners “may be seeking to benefit from the Kushner family’s connections to the White House.”

On June 5 it was further revealed that Kushner Companies is seeking a $250 million loan to pay off investors, including Chinese EB-5 investors, in a luxury Jersey City apartment tower known as “Trump Bay Street.” Major U.S. banks are hesitant to lend on the project due to its connection with Jared Kushner, the Trump administration, and the controversial EB-5 program, so unregulated lenders and foreign banks are likely to fill the void, potentially adding to the vast Trump-Kushner array of foreign conflict of interest problems.

As noted above, conflict of interest questions have previously been raised regarding Trump-Kushner business dealings with China. Trump Tower’s biggest commercial tenant is Chinese state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), which is due to renegotiate its lease during Trump’s term as president. Since his inauguration, Trump has won Chinese government approval for 38 new Trump trademarks in China; and Ivanka Trump’s clothing company won approval for three new trademarks in China on the day she and her family dined with Chinese president Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s private Florida resort, in April.

All in the Family?: Trump-Kushner and Xi Jinping families at Mar-a-Lago (large).

Ivanka Trump has also come under fire for reported sweatshop conditions at factories in China where her company’s products are made. The recent arrest and disappearances of investigators looking into conditions at these factories in China prompted The Washington Post to ask, “Is China offering Ivanka Trump unseemly favors?”

If so, then it seems reasonable to ask what China might expect in return. Since former China-hawk Donald Trump’s inauguration as president, China has already secured Trump’s obeisance to Beijing’s “one-China policy” on Taiwan, Trump’s inaction on Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea, Trump’s silence on human rights, and Trump’s dictator-love for Xi Jinping. What more could China want?

The post Trump-Kushner China Dealings Raise Conflict of Interest Concerns appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Trying to militarize the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC – center left), Arab League (LAS – top left) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC – bottom left) through the IMAF poses a threat to the European Union

President Trump took the floor at the Arab Islamic American summit on May 21st. But it was also a summit of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT). With his official American support to this organization, Trump jeopardized the security of the European Union. Leaders and citizens of the EU should be alert to this risk.

Who are the IMAFT members?

The Arab Islamic American summit can be also labeled an ˮOIC Minus 2“ summit. Of all 57 members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) assembling all Muslim countries of the world and countries with significant minorities, 55 were present—all except Iran and Syria.

The IMAFT Alliance was founded in December 2015 under the leadership of Saudi Arabia and is currently of 41 member states. Out of the 57 OIC members, 40 are members of IMAFT, in addition to Eritrea.

Membership of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

The core of IMAFT is made by 19 members of the Arab League (LAS) from Mauritania to Oman and from Lebanon to Comoros: Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Comoros, Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Palestine and Lebanon. All LAS members except Iraq, Syria and Algeria (though, leaders of Iraq and Algeria were present at the Riyadh summit).

It is good to note that three LAS members, Somalia, Djibouti and Comoros are ethnically non-Arab countries but they are “politically” Arab. For this reason they will be considered Arab for simplicity’s sake.

Membership of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) and the League of Arab States (LAS)

There are also 6 Asian members of IMAFT: Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives and Malaysia. In addition to that, there are 16 Sub-Saharan African members: Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Eritrea, Uganda and Gabon.

Four countries with a Shi’a government—Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Syria—are non-members of this Sunni alliance. However, Azerbaijan, together with Indonesia and Tajikistan, have been invited to become IMAFT members.

But why Trump’s participation at the summit could jeopardize the security of the European Union?

The military alliance as a security threat to the EU

Muslim states, especially  Arab states, possess a vast military arsenal. Saudi Arabia, with its population of 30 million, has the world’s fourth largest military spending right after the U.S., China and Russia. The Kingdom spends a third more than France or the UK, with a population of over 60 million, and two and a half times more than Brazil, a country of 200 million.

The United Arab Emirates, with a population of 6 million, are the 14th largest spender globally—their military spending is similar to Italy’s and slightly exceeds Turkey’s.

According to the World Bank, the 22 Arab League members had an overall military budget of USD 214 billion in 2015 corresponding to 8.2% of their combined GDP. For comparison, the military expenditure of the 27 EU members (except the UK) total USD 203 billion, which accounts for 1.4% of their GDP. After subtracting the three Arab non-members of IMAFT and adding the 22 non-Arab IMAFT members, the total military expenditure of the 41 member IMAFT was USD 222 billion in 2015, according to the World Bank and the EU Institute for Security Studies.

One should not forget that the statistics do not include all military expenditures. In Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey, the army is a major industrial and trade owner. Furthermore, the Egyptian military budget is boosted by not negligible direct U.S. subsidies.

The Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) as compared with the European Union (EU)

The US President is helping build a military colossus on Europe’s southern border, whose military spending exceeds the military budget of the EU members. This alliance would include almost all southern neighbors of the EU, from Morocco to Turkey, including Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Palestine and Lebanon.

Realizing that the European Union is unable to defend itself against the expansionist policy of Russia with just one third of the EU military budget (USD 64 billion), the EU citizens do have serious reasons to be alarmed.

One must realize that many of the IMAFT members have combat-regular guerilla or regular forces. In the last two decades, they actively participated in the civil wars in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire or Sierra Leone, in military occupation of Western Sahara, war against Ethiopia, military campaign against Saddam in Iraq, the Houthi in Yemen, the Arab Spring in Egypt and Bahrain, Boko Haram in Nigeria or against the ISIS in Syria, Iraq, and Libya.

To make it even worse, countries like Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Oman or Kuwait buy exclusively the latest military technology —their military own more state-of-the-art weaponry than the EU members.

Officially, IMAFT is being built as an alliance to counter terror. However, some analyst title it a NATO-like alliance which evokes its potential durability. An organization that started its life with a military intervention in Yemen (instead of fight against terrorism), can easily turn to expansionist policies in the long run.

Let us consider the large Muslim minorities in the EU states, primarily in France (8%), the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany (6%), Austria and Sweden (5%), Denmark and Italy (4%), with a tendency for rapid growth due to high birth rates and immigration. The late Libyan dictator Qaddafi had threatened the Europeans that the Muslim minority in Europe would have been his future secret weapon against the “native” Europeans thanks to its birth rate.

Earlier this year, Europeans got evidence of the manipulation of minorities for political gains. During the Turkish referendum campaign, Turkey’s President Erdogan interfered unprecedentedly with the internal affairs of the EU states, gaining the vote of  the Turkish minority in Germany, helping him introduce a more illiberal regime at home. The late theoretician of nationalism Ernest Gellner had postulated that some diaspora communities tend to be more radicalized than the population in their countries of origin.

In connection with the migration crisis, IMAFT is becoming the second biggest threat to the Europeans, right after Russian assertiveness on their eastern border.

The military alliance as an economic challenge to the EU

Out of the total 13 members of the oil cartel OPEC which can influence global oil prices, 7 countries are also members of the IMAFT military alliance: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria and Gabon. These members exploit 20 of OPEC’s 33.5 million barrels daily, i.e. 59% of the OPEC production.

580 out of 1210 billion barrels of proven reserves is located in these 7 countries, making it 48% of the total OPEC reserves. Adding Iraq, IMAFT’s ally, the daily production of the alliance makes 71% of the OPEC production and its proven reserves correspond to 60% of the OPEC reserves.

Membership of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Russia and other OPEC countries are the two most important oil suppliers to the EU. A formal American support to IMAFT led by Saudi Arabia de-facto transforms OPEC to a military alliance. Europeans have an extensive experience with Russia using the oil and gas pipeline taps as its weapon. By militarization of OPEC, the European Union is getting two military rivals of its two most important suppliers.

Summary

The Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT), with an official American support, is becoming a second military bloc on the borders of the European Union. After Russian expansionism on its eastern border, IMAFT is a security and economic challenger to the EU on its southern border.

With Trump’s foreign policy so distinctly ignoring the security interests of Europe, the citizens and the leaders of the European Union should do everything to build own military capacities of the EU, such as anEuropean army directed by a European foreign policy, and an EU membership in NATO.

Double threat on the borders of the European Union: Russia and IMAFT

Links:

List of all 41 members of IMAFT: http://www.arabianow.org/saudi-arabia-leads-islamic-military-alliance/

Participants of the Arab Islamic American Summit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riyadh_Summit_2017

IMAFT and EU members military expenditures, according to the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS

Arab League members military expenditures, according to the EU Institute for Security Studies (EU ISS): http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Alert_27_Arab_military_spending.pdf

The share of the 15 states with the highest military expenditures, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI): http://america.aljazeera.com/content/ajam/articles/2015/4/13/military-spending-spikes-in-middle-east-east-europe/jcr:content/mainpar/textimage/image.adapt.990.high.SIPRI_global_share_military_expenditure_041315.1429016026374.jpg

 

The post Trump Jeopardizes EU Security in Riyadh appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

(Own report) - With its continued worldwide support for Salafis, Germany's close partner, Saudi Arabia, is relentlessly fertilizing the soil for the growth of jihadi terror, according to the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). "The consequences of Saudi Arabia's support for Salafism are catastrophic," the SWP concludes in light of IS/Daesh activities in Europe. British experts are also sharply criticizing cooperation with Riyadh. If one seriously wants to combat jihadi terror, one "should start by stopping the mass export of Wahhabism's intolerance and hatred from Saudi Arabia," an insider recommends. This is, however, countered by Germany, other European powers and North America's relentless cooperation with the Saudi ruling clan. Just a few weeks ago, Chancellor Angela Merkel launched regular military cooperation with the Saudi armed forces. Out of consideration for Riyadh, the British government has been withholding an investigation, showing the - presumably Saudi - financiers of British jihadis. This had been made known only three days before the latest terror attack in London.

Trump’s decision to withdraw the nation from the Paris climate agreement was not based on science or sound economics, but on a confused, misguided, and simply dishonest desire to score some short-term political points with his voters. What he sacrifices in the long term will be immensely more difficult for the country to win back at the ballot box: authority, credibility, and influence.

Women protest against local government corruption, arrest of opposition leader in Al-Hoceima, Morocco on June 3, 2017. (Photo: REUTERS/Youssef Boudlal)

The kingdom of Morocco is not known for political activism or protests. Certainly not when compared to the Arab Spring uprisings that led to regime change in several of its North African neighbors. Yet in the last 2 weeks the traditionally stable Morocco has seen the largest popular protests and government backlash since the 2011 Arab Spring.

At the time of Arab Spring, Morocco’s king ceded some power to the elected government after some protests cropped up demanding an expansion of democracy. However the move has been largely symbolic without any meaningful change—the king retained a large amount of power and influence. King Mohammed VI, in power since 1999, is part of the Muslim world longest-ruling royal family. In addition, since 2011 Moroccan police have cracked down on protests to limit unrest and prevent similar revolutions to those in Egypt and Tunisia.

Tensions between police and activists in the northern city of Al-Hoceima have resurfaced, and spread, in the last several weeks. An opposition group called Hirak had been gathering support in criticizing the Makhzen—the king’s governing authority in the region—since a local fisherman was killed after a dispute with police. On May 26th, after a preacher criticized Hirak leader Nasser Zefzafi, protesters gathered in the streets and clashed with police. Police also issued a warrant for Zefzafi’s arrest, amidst signs from local residents posing the question to them, “Are you a government or a gang?”

Violence ensued as police used force to break up protests. The next day, May 27, authorities arrested 20 people in Al-Hoceima, charging them with “threatening national security.” Zefzafi, a well-known activist aided by large group of supporters, fled the city before he could be arrested.

However Zefzafi was tracked down and detained a few days later. On June 2nd, protests erupted again in Al-Hoceima. This time “several thousand people” gathered in the city’s main square, chanting “we are all Zefzafi” and “the people demand prisoners be freed.” Police quickly surrounded the group in an attempt to limit the number of people with access to the gathering. In the nearby town of Imzouren police fired water cannon to disperse hundreds of protesters who clashed with security forces.

On June 4th, police acted to disperse a women’s protest organized by Hirak. In addition to showing outrage over Zefzafi’s arrest, the group demanded action to address Makhzen (local government) abuse and corruption as well as the need for more jobs and improvements to regional infrastructure. Once again police surrounded the protesters, and pushed the leader of the event away from her supporters. “We go to sleep in fear, and we wake up in fear,” said Fatima Alghloubzari, 54 who tried to join the protest on Saturday. “We never imagined our city would become like this.”

Several articles on these events pointed out how rare political unrest is in Morocco (and how police presence at protests is usually significant). Perhaps this explains why, as Patrick Markey of Reuters points out, “the unrest around Al-Hoceima and the Rif region is testing nerves in a kingdom that presents itself as a model for stability and steady reform, as well as a safe haven for foreign investment in a region widely torn by militant violence.” Even limited protest can be dangerous in a country used to very little.

It certainly makes sense why the regional government (and, by extension, the monarchy) would want to quash the Al-Hoceima protests as quickly as possible. The Arab Spring showed how quickly such shows of displeasure can spread. But cracking down could produce the opposite of the intended effect by drawing even more to the people’s cause. Zefzafi’s arrest likely generated more attention to his cause than a peaceful protest would.

It’s still too early to see where this recent unrest will lead, but in a country relied on to be a stabilizing regional force, the Hirak movement is worth paying attention to.

The post Arab Spring Sequel? Unrest Grows in Morocco appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

(Photo Credit: Mirza Ismail)

Yezidi leader Mirza Ismail describes how the situation is extremely dire for women and children on Mount Sinjar while the international community and global media outlets ignore it.

In recent days, media outlets across the world have been speaking about the ISIS massive car bomb near the German Embassy in Kabul, the ISIS car bomb outside an ice-cream shop in Baghdad, a priest who was kidnapped by ISIS in the Philippines and how Iraqi forces are confronting the ISIS-held neighborhoods in Western Mosul. However, there has been virtual silence regarding the present situation on Mount Sinjar.

According to Yazidi leader Mirza Ismail, the situation on Mount Sinjar has not improved since 2014. In fact, he claimed that the situation has even deteriorated. Nevertheless, he proclaimed: “The international media has not been covering the present situation on Mount Sinjar I think because the Yezidi fighting forces and the Shiite Popular Mobilization Force made the decision to start fighting against ISIS terrorism and to liberate the Yezidi region of Sinjar as well as the rest of Iraq from ISIS.” He claimed that if other groups were doing the fighting, they would have covered it.

New mass grave found on Mount Sinjar (Photo Credit: Mirza Ismail)

“For the last 7 days, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces and the Yezidi fighters have taken control of all the Yezidi villages on the southern side of Mount Sinjar,” he related. “The Iraqi government has provided many Yezidi fighters with different types of weapons to defend the Yezidi region of Mount Sinjar. The Joint Forces have discovered several new Yezidi mass graves nearby every village on the southern side of the mountain. According to my colleagues, the numbers of mass-graves found in Yezidis’ villages south of Mount Sinjar are 10 so far.”

According to Ismail, the situation for Yezidi civilians on Mount Sinjar is still very dire:

“They lack everything that is needed for daily life, such as food, clean drinking water, doctors, healthcare, hospitals and education for the children. There is a lack of schools and teachers. There are a few tent schools for some children but not enough for all children there. In the villages north of the mountain, the children have difficulty getting to school because of the lack of transportation, as the government has not provided it. The children lack school supplies, good food, clean drinking water, winter clothing, health care, etc. Our organization and many others are trying to help the children the best that we can but the needs are larger than the capacity of NGOs. The conditions in the shelters are very bad as the civilians still cannot go back to their villages because many of the houses were destroyed by ISIS and booby-trapped, a reality that has killed many young Yezidis.”

Yezidi female fighter (Photo Credit: Mirza Ismail)

Ismail stressed that the plight of the Yezidi women is especially difficult for while most of Iraq has been liberated, most of the Yezidi women are still enslaved by ISIS:

“The Yezidis on Mount Sinjar believe most of their women and children were transferred outside of Iraq when ISIS saw they would be defeated. On the other hand, many Yezidi women have picked up arms and defended the region but they lack the proper training and weapons, which the Yezidis have been asking for a long time. Unfortunately, nobody has bothered to help yet. Sadly, the international community finds it very hard to give some arms to an ancient and indigenous Yezidi nation seeking self-defense and they find it much easier to sell high-tech weapons to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Islamic countries, who use them to kill innocents such as the Yezidis.”

Despite all of these recent developments, the United States, Israel, Canada and the international community at large has not responded to what is happening on Mount Sinjar. Ismail claims that this is for political reasons. Nevertheless, Ismail argues that even if it is not politically correct to say so, he believes that “the only solution for the Yezidis and Chaldo-Assyrian Christians to survive as a people with human dignity is to have an autonomous region in Sinjar and Nineveh under international protection” and he hopes that the international community will recognize this sooner rather than later.

The post Yezidi Leader: “The World Ignores the Plight of our People on Mount Sinjar” appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

The medium-range RSD-10 Pioneer (SS-20) missile system (RIA Novosti / Anton Denisov) / RIA Novosti

The United States recently test fired an Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) system that intercepted and destroyed its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) target successfully.

The capability to destroy ICBMs had been the last major technological challenge since the Cold War. While this system seems successful at this stage, intercepting multiple ICBMs or one with multiple warheads still looks out of reach. Moscow has been surrounded by a ring of ABMs for some time; their effectiveness has never had to be tested since their deployment.

The strategy that prevented the exchange of ICBMs between the United States and the Soviet Union for decades was a slow progression of communications, dialogue and treaties that reduced the stockpile of nuclear arms. This dialogue also enabled the United States and the Soviet Union to humanize each other and tamp down on propaganda intended to solidify and embolden each side to fight to the last person.

This did not mean that a country’s resolve was reduced. Dialogue was taken from a position of strength, but also used the confidence each country’s population had in their resolve to come to a meeting of minds. With confidence came respect, and the Cold War fizzled away within the next generation.

As an ABM system can physically show the willingness of a country to defend itself, the perception of strength must also be present in order for a dialogue to be successful. The perception that a country can be disabled, obstructed or even controlled by a foreign power makes it seem that any actions in relation to their adversary will result in harm or oppression.

When it becomes possible to see adversaries as less human, it creates an environment of reactionary strategy, something the cold warriors were keen to measure, control and completely avoid. The perception of self-weakness and the feral reaction to achieve security can be more dangerous than many of the weapons systems themselves.

The reality is that the United States is able to defend the country from military and cyber threats, and has the capability to retaliate in if it is targeted, and most likely has in many cases.

The United States is not weak in this regard, and news coverage of anything to do with Russia seems to lack the perception of humanity in relating to a relatively strong adversary. The worst case scenario of a lack of introspective reporting on issue surrounding Russia could lead to a hot conflict, or a bias against Russians and Russian speaking people living in Western countries.

While it most likely will not lead to an exchange of ICBMs, the value of having an open dialogue even with an adversary has proven to be of value, and limiting the ability to re-establish a method of deterrence through communication is ignoring past successes for the sake of little gain.

Humanizing an adversary, even those who seek to cause harm is of more value than the best ABM system. A fictional show like The Americans may be more useful than many news reports in understanding how to approach adversaries in different ways, not for the sake of information, but in opening a communication channel and avoiding the kind of mistakes that could have have turned  the Cold War hot. Misunderstandings and actions that promote a feral response to defense are extremely dangerous with any adversary.

The post Actual and Perceived Defense of the Homeland appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Denouncing today&#39s deadly attack on a peaceful funeral procession in Kabul as &#8220morally reprehensible and bereft of humanity,&#8221 the top United Nations official in Afghanistan said that after a week of violence across the long-troubled country, &#8220now is the time to seek unity and solidarity.&#8221

In a single round of voting today, the United Nations General Assembly elected Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Kuwait, Peru and Poland as non-permanent members of the Security Council for the next two years.

Protecting the oceans is among the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the blueprint for a more just and equitable world adopted by the 193 Member States of the United Nations in September 2015.

United Nations agencies are calling for urgent aid to help hundreds of thousands of people affected by Cyclone Mora, which swept across the Bay of Bengal earlier this week.

Warning that smugglers may now be “broadening” a death trap for migrants and refugees that could stretch from the Mediterranean to the vast Sahara Desert, the United Nations refugee agency has reiterated its call for safe pathways so that those in desperate need of international protection do not lose their lives.

L'auteur tente de faire le point détaillé de l'évolution du droit particulier aux institutions internationales, depuis la multiplication de ces organismes à travers le monde.

Ceux-ci, on le sait, ont des objectifs fort variés, mais de par leur nature ils sont tous amenés à conclure des actes juridiques de caractère semblable et dans des conditions souvent identiques, qu'il s'agisse de leurs tractations avec les services publics des pays d'accueil ou de la défense de leur intérêts propres. Ainsi se greffe peu à peu une nouvelle branche du droit aux confins du droit international public et privé et du droit administratif.

Stevens & Sons Ltd, Londres, 1962 (en anglais).

Du plan Marshall au Marché commun et aux projets d'union politique européenne, la coopération s'est organisée en Occident selon des modalités variant avec les objectifs, mais on remarque que ce fut toujours dans le sens d'une intégration plus poussée entre les pays membres des institutions régionales.

Après avoir analysé la structure et le rôle des organisations purement européennes, et de l'O.T.A.N., Mme M. Margaret Ball se pose la question : « Communauté européenne ou atlantique, ou bien les deux ? » A son avis, aucune raison ne s'oppose à ce que les deux mouvements d'unification se développent parallèlement. Mais qu'on ne se hâte point de leur donner une structure définitive : tant que l'évolution de chacun se poursuit en fonction d'idéaux communs à l'Occident, la conjonction des efforts à l'échelon suprême demeure possible. Formulée il y a trois ans, cette opinion pourra sembler aujourd'hui quelque peu optimiste.

Stevens & Sons, Londres, 1959 (en anglais).

Paru au début de cette année en France, l'ouvrage de M. W. W. Rostow a été publié aux Etats-Unis quelques mois avant la nomination de l'auteur à la Maison Blanche, où il assume depuis un an et demi les fonctions de conseiller du président Kennedy.

Même pour ceux qui auraient ignoré jusqu'à présent ce bréviaire de l'administration démocrate américaine, les conceptions du professeur Rostow ne sont pas inconnues : pour avoir fortement influencé la politique étrangère des Etats-Unis depuis quelques mois, et pour avoir été si souvent prônés dans les déclarations ou discours officiels, les principes qui inspirent sa théorie de développement économique sont connus du monde entier. La publication du livre en français permettra néanmoins de replacer ces grandes idées dans leur contexte et de mieux comprendre l'articulation d'une doctrine dont l'ambition n'est rien de moins que de supplanter le marxisme dans la conception de l'histoire moderne.

Editions du Seuil, Paris, 1962.