Snafu-solomon.blogspot

The Escalation Trap works like this: pic.twitter.com/AeJwoYzkEO

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 15, 2026

Most wars escalate beyond what leaders intend.

I study this dynamic — the Escalation Trap.

The Iran war is now showing the same strategic patterns seen in Vietnam and Kosovo.

I write short strategic briefings explaining what to watch next.

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https://t.co/JdhoWKJ5P0 pic.twitter.com/kOijVQFtpI

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 13, 2026 I don't see the connection he's making with past wars BUT I DO agree with his premise. So what is the "escalation trap" here? I believe its the same as we found in Iraq and Afghanistan. We can win the battles, but controlling the populations while fighting a counter insurgency is the main risk I think.
We've been incredibly successful up to this point in the war.  The Iranian Navy is done.  The Army is on its back foot and the elite forces are hollowed out.
Uprisings by the people are increasing and local security forces are in a bind.
My worry is that once they setup a replacement govt the call will go out to provide "stabilization" forces.
The Israelis can't participate.
The Europeans won't participate.
That leaves the US (we broke it, we own it) and in essence UN peacekeepers (mercenaries) from undeveloped or developing countries to be paid a price to provide troops.
This means years on the ground while every terrorist group in the region attempts to flood in to kill Americans trying to rebuild the country.  It means holders on from the previous regime trying to reclaim power.
It means terror attacks on our home soil as muslims are further radicalized.
It won't be a typical escalation trap but the sad old tale of how America gets its shit pushed in despite having the most powerful military in the world, even after we literally destroyed the enemy.
Hope I'm wrong.
But one thing is true.
We can take out any country on this planet.  We just can't rebuild after we tear it up.

U.S. Central Command is aware of the loss of a U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing. Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 12, 2026 God bless the crew

 

 

That's so human to me. I can imagine me saying something similar when its my time. I'm tired and it's getting dark(vision fading). Almost poetic. 
Note I'm ok. Really am. Just musing out loud. Don't trip and call for a welfare check.

 

Was Druski right?? Pastor tells his congregation to bring copies of their tax returns so he can review them

“I’ma put a stop to some of y’all playing in my face during tithes and offerings on Sunday morning.”pic.twitter.com/PgK01osv7i

— Kollege Kidd (@KollegeKidd) March 10, 2026 I wonder if he's tired of playing in the face of the congregation when it comes to winning followers for Jesus. Gotta be one of the biggest legal hustles in the black community.

PICATINNY ARSENAL, NJ – The U.S. Army has cleared the M111 Offensive Hand Grenade (OHG) for Full Material Release (FMR). Developed by the Capabilities Program Executive Ammunition and Energetics (CPE A&E), in conjunction with the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM) Armaments Center at Picatinny Arsenal, the M111 OHG will replace the obsolete body and fuze of the Mk3A2 hand grenade series, marking the first new lethal hand grenade to achieve FMR since 1968 when the Mk3A2 entered service. The Mk3A2 is restricted for use due to its asbestos body unlike the M111 which utilizes a plastic body that is fully consumed during detonation. U.S. Army photo by Christopher Arthur

 

The Trump Administration was dismayed by the scale and wide-spread destruction caused by Saturday’s strike campaign by Israel against oil infrastructure in and around the Iranian capital of Tehran, which reportedly targeting 30 oil and fuel depots sparking massive fires across… pic.twitter.com/bsZSX3467Q

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 9, 2026

U.S. Marines with  Long Range Missile Battery A, 11th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, stand in formation during a deactivation ceremony on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California, Jan. 30, 2026. The battery’s deactivation is a part of broader structural changes directed by Force Design to align the Marine Corps with future warfighting requirements. 
This ladies and gentlemen is exhibit A for pathetic planning.  For a unit to be established and then deactivated in less than 3 years is brand new to me (not counting experimental).
Force Design isn't a campaign of learning.  Its devolved into desperate ploy by leadership to make a flawed concept somehow work.  The Army has long range fires covered in spades.  Eyes and ears of the joint force?  Sense and make sense? We have drones, sats and other assets for that work.
Berger fucked up and Smith is trying to back his play instead of cutting his losses and giving our nation the 911/Amphibious Assault Force it needs.
 

 

“Lindsay Graham has never seen a country he doesn’t want to bomb or a man he doesn’t want to sleep with.” pic.twitter.com/wdMqEfpTHm

— James Fishback (@j_fishback) March 7, 2026 Graham is a 1000% neo-con/globalist. How he keeps getting re-elected is beyond me. I thought the time of Republicans like him was over.

 

NOW - Trump, Condoleezza Rice and Susie Wiles shake hands and walk off together after White House event. pic.twitter.com/9WSfZZz2Zu

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 6, 2026 Many of you don't know it because many of you are as far to the right as Ryan The Red is to the left. By that I mean some are so ideological that as long as the "influencers" on the right support it so will many others. Don't do it with Rice. She's a so called Russia expert and a certified globalist/neo-con. I'm glad things are going well in Iran but that old "unintended consequences" thing makes me pause big time. Time will tell how things go but if Rice is back in an advisor role then confidence is not high.

 via Globes

An Israel Air Force Adir fighter jet (F-35I) shot down an Iranian YAK-130 fighter jet above Tehran in the world's first-ever downing of a manned fighter jet by an F-35 fighter jet.

The IDF Spokesperson announced Wednesday morning that there had been an historic event in the skies over Tehran. An Israel Air Force Adir fighter jet (F-35I) shot down an Iranian YAK-130 fighter jet above the Iranian capital. This was the world's first-ever downing of a manned fighter jet by an F-35 fighter jet.

Story here 

War has been declared and the propaganda fight is in full effect.  But crowing about the F-35 getting a kill against a glorified trainer that can BARELY flex into light strike/air defense?

Historic dogfight?

Note to Public Information Officers.  It is better at times to simply put out a news release with the  naked facts.  Spicing them up for the public that doesn't follow military affairs is a real rough road that can get you laughed at.