Ideas on Europe Blog

Vor wenigen Monaten hat der Deutsche Bundestag offiziell beschlossen, dass ab 1.1.2021 das neue Bundesamt für Auswärtige Angelegenheiten (BfAA) mit Sitz in Brandenburg(Havel) gegründet wird. Hier trage ich zusammen, was wir bislang alles wissen und was noch nicht (alles) auf der Wikipedia steht.

Warum mich das interessiert?

Zum Einen wohne ich seit einigen Monaten hier in der Stadt Brandenburg, unter anderem um eine neue Wissenschafts- und Forschungsorganisation zu gründen. Als Fast-Nachbar des neuen Amts und als Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaftler verfolge ich daher den Aufbau eines neuen Amts natürlich mit großer Aufmerksamkeit.

Aber wer meine Forschung der letzten Jahre verfolgt hat, weiß, dass ich mich natürlich auch inhaltlich für die Arbeit des BfAAs interessiere. Laut der Webseite des Auswärtigen Amts ist eine der Aufgaben des Amts nämlich das “Management von Fördermitteln und Zuwendungen, zum Beispiel für humanitäre Hilfsprojekte“.

In meiner Forschung rund um die Finanzierung des UN-Systems habe ich mich zuletzt intensiv mit Fragen der humanitären Finanzen befasst, inklusive von Organisationen wie dem UN-Flüchtlingshilfswerks UNHCR oder dem UN-Hilfswerk für Palästina-Flüchtlinge UNRWA. Da ist das Amt genau in meinem Themenbereich unterwegs.

Interessanterweise wird laut den lokalen Medien (hier Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung, MAZ) der ehemalige deutsche Botschafter in Beirut (Libanon), Georg Birgelen, wohl der erste Leiter der neuen Amts werden.

Das ist insofern spannend, weil der kleine Staat Libanon in großer Zahl Geflüchtete aus Syrien aber auch eine eine signifikante Zahl Palästina-Flüchtlinge aufgenommen hat und damit ein wichtiger Empfänger von multilateraler Hilfe über Organisationen wie UNHCR und UNRWA ist. Birgelen hat also vermutlich vor Ort gesehen, was das Management von Hilfsgeldern direkt und indirekt bedeutet.

Was genau das neue Bundesamt alles tun soll ist allerdings noch nicht im Detail bekannt. Im Kern soll es nicht-politische Verwaltungsaufgaben des Auswärtigen Amts übernehmen.  Wobei das natürlich nicht heißt, dass es hier um unwichtige Aspekte geht.

Im Gesetz heißt es (§2 Abs. 2):

“Das Bundesamt unterstützt den Auswärtigen Dienst auf dem Gebiet der Auswärtigen Angelegenheiten bei der Verwaltung und Infrastruktur, dem Fördermittelmanagement sowie im Rechts- und Konsularwesen. Das nähere regelt das Auswärtige Amt.”

Außerdem können dem Amt noch weitere auswärtige Aufgaben übertragen werden, inklusive aus anderen Ministerien und Bundesbehörden (§2 Abs. 3). Man könnte sich also vorstellen, dass es irgendwann nicht nur die Verwaltung der auswärtigen Fördermittel des AAs sondern auch anderen Ministerien übernimmt. Z.B. wird wohl auch die Verwaltung des Auslandsschulwesen auf das BfAA übertragen (siehe weiter unten).

Die ungenaue Aufgabenbeschreibung des BfAA wurde im Februar vom Bundesrechnungshof in einem Einzelbericht zum neuen Amt kritisiert:

“Welche Aufgaben das neue Bundesamt übernehmen soll und was demgegenüber der für die politische Steuerung des Auswärtigen Amts zuständigen Zentrale vorbehalten bleibt, lässt der Gesetzentwurf offen. Er enthält auch keine hinreichend genauen Angaben zu den mit dieser Organisationsmaßnahme verbundenen haushalts- und insbesondere personalwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen. Weder lässt der Gesetzentwurf erkennen, wie die Personalausstattung des neuen Bundesamtes genau ausfallen soll noch wie sich die Neugründung auf die Personalausstattung der Fachabteilungen der Zentrale auswirkt.“

Die Begründung zum Gesetzesentwurf sprach übrigens von einem “geplanten schrittweisen Aufwuchs des Personalstamms des Bundesamts auf 700 Beschäftigte“.

Wir haben es hier also nicht mit einer kleinen Behörde zu tun, sondern in ihrer angestrebten Größe mit einem signifikanten Akteur in einer Stadt mit knapp über 70.000 Einwohnern. Und auch ein Akteur, der mit Sicherheit einiges im Auswärtigen Amt verändern wird, wenn dadurch tatsächlich Stellen eingespart oder verlagert werden.

Damit ist laut Presse auch klar, dass die zunächst angemieteten Räumlichkeiten in der Kirchhofstraße in Brandenburg wohl nicht ausreichen werden und es möglicherweise einen Neubau für das Amt geben könnte.

Die Lage in der Kirchhofstraße ist aber für Mitarbeiter*innen des BfAAs, die aus Berlin oder Potsdam einpendeln, insofern vorteilhaft, als dass man in nur 5-10 Minuten zu Fuß vom Bahnhof dort ist. Von Berlin fährt der RE1 halbstündlich in ca. 50 Minuten von Berlin Hbf nach Brandenburg Hbf (zurück auch). Ab 2022 wird der Takt sogar von halbstündig auf 20-minütig erhöht.

Was für Mitarbeiter*innen werden gesucht?

In einer Stellenausschreibung des AAs für den gehobenen Dienst vom August 2020 hieß es zum Beispiel:

“Wenn es Sie reizt, am Aufbau einer neuen, international ausgerichteten Bundesoberbehörde, dem zentralen Servicezentrum für außenpolitische Verwaltungsaufgaben im Geschäftsbereich des Auswärtigen Amts engagiert mitzuarbeiten, Sie hohe Teamfähigkeit und Einsatzfreude sowie die unten aufgeführten Anforderungen mitbringen, freuen wir uns auf Ihre Bewerbung.“

Die Aufgaben in dieser Ausschreibung waren ganz klar an der Mittelverwaltung angesiedelt:

• • “Bewilligung von Zuwendungen nach § 44 Bundeshaushaltsordnung einschließlich der Prüfung von Finanzierungsplänen und der Beratung zu Projektvorhaben im Ausland
  • Abschluss von zivilrechtlichen Verträgen mit im Ausland sitzenden Zuwendungsempfängern, einschließlich Kommunikation in Wort und Schrift mit den Zuwendungsempfängern in englischer Sprache
  • Prüfung von Ausgaben im Rahmen von Verwendungsnachweisen
  • Projektbegleitung und Bewertung von Sachberichten einschließlich der Dokumentation von Beanstandungen und der Durchsetzung von Rückforderungen Mittelbewirtschaftung“

Auch die Visa-Vergabe soll demnächst hier Brandenburg geschehen, wobei juristisch das Verwaltungsgericht in Berlin zuständig bleibt — formal werden die Entscheidungen also wohl in der Zuständigkeit es Auswärtigen Amts fallen, nicht hier.

Darüber hinaus deuten weitere Stellenausschreibungen darauf hin, dass auch Aufgaben des Bundesverwaltungsamts in Bereich des Auslandsschulwesens auf das BfAA übergehen:

“Derzeit wird die Zentralstelle für das Auslandsschulwesen durch das Bundesverwaltungsamt betreut. Mit Einstellung dieser Tätigkeit beim BVA übernimmt das Bundesamt für Auswärtige Angelegenheiten diese Aufgabe voraussichtlich zum 01.01.2021.“

Weiterhin werden wohl Aufgaben in der Buchführung und Rechnungslegung des AAs an das BfAA ausgelagert. Auch Expert*innen im Tarifrecht werden in der Zentralabteilung des BfAA gesucht. Auch braucht das BfAA natürlich eine neue IT, so dass Stellen für das Auswärtige Amt in diesem Bereich schon seit Anfang 2020 mit der Möglichkeit der Versetzung nach Brandenburg ausgeschrieben wurden.

Hier in Brandenburg ist also einiges in Bewegung. Wenn die ersten 2-300 Mitarbeiter*innen hier im Laufe des nächsten Jahres ihre Arbeit beginnen, wird das in Brandenburg(Havel) sicher einiges in Bewegung setzen.

Dem neuen Amtsleiter Birgelen kann man nur viel Erfolg wünschen, denn beim Aufbau einer neuen Behörde kann ja einiges gut aber auch einiges schief laufen. Als Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaftler wäre beides interessant zu beobachten, aber als Bürger der Stadt hoffe ich auf ein gutes Zusammenwachsen von Bundesamt und Brandenburg.

The post Das Bundesamt für Auswärtige Angelegenheiten (BfAA) in Brandenburg: Was wir wissen appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

Azerbaijan is currently actively working with several companies to bring the COVID-19 vaccine to the country.
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said this during the opening of a modular hospital of the Health Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations for the treatment of coronavirus patients.
Azerbaijan will be among the first countries to receive the vaccine in this area. But the main condition is that the vaccine should go through all the stages of testing. Doctors are well aware that any new vaccine goes through several stages and only then is released to the market and used to vaccinate people. Therefore, Baku aims to bring this vaccine to the country after all the stages of research have been conducted by companies and after international certification has been completed. After that, it will be possible to say that this terrible situation is over.
“Currently, 100 to 200 people are infected in our country every day. This is certainly a better result than in previous months. However, daily monitoring is and will be carried out to keep the situation under control. At the same time, mitigation steps should be taken in such a way that the number of patients does not increase sharply. This is the key issue, and we will certainly take our steps very carefully”, Mr. Aliyev noted.

Editor

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All that summer rest finally gave me the impetus to put together this little chart the other day. It’s a simple breakdown of the time allocated to the 11 headings of the Future Relationship negotiating rounds, including this week’s 7th. Weightings are based on a negotiating block (usually a half-day), with some joint sessions (e.g. governance and aviation) being split evenly between the two original headings. All the data is based on the published agendas. When I posted on Twitter, I focused mainly on the stability of the time allocations, reflecting the non-agreement on any one chapter: the entire agenda is still in a state of nascent points of common ground, but awaiting now the political level to push into any horse-trading that might occur. Without that push, we’re not going to see things change, or indeed resolve into agreement, regardless of what rational cost-benefit analysis might tell us should happen. Others have written on the politics of the calculations involved, so I’m not going to add further to that pile, but instead I’ll pick up on the comments I got about the time devoted to fisheries. People rightly pointed out that fisheries contributes a trivial amount to economic activity, certainly compared to services, and yet it gets just as much time (only the Level Playing Field gets more). A quick glance at that overall distribution of time will show that economic value is not the driver here. Instead, it’s about the production of legal text to meet the needs of the parties involved, as well as the degree of disagreement between them. Time in negotiations is shaped much more by the logic of the agreement than by objective external benchmarks: the process of negotiation itself becomes part of what is discussed. In some cases, the parties might have minimal disagreement, so it’s relatively quick and simple to close the gap. In others, there might be big differences, but the nature of the field might only allow for one position or the other, so the only discussion is about whether either side concedes the point, or rather that it falls. The difficult and time-consuming cases come when there are multiple options available – including novel ones – or where there are additional legal obligations to be factored in. Fisheries is a good example of such a situation, given assorted bits of international public law, fishing conventions, environmental protection obligations and more ways of managing things than you’d think would exist. Services, by contrast, remains an underdeveloped area of international cooperation, so a lot of what’s going on is about degrees of alignment to EU rules, including on financial equivalence. In addition, the UK isn’t asking for nearly so much on this front, as compared to fisheries. In both cases, the time taken to produce legal texts for inclusion in a new treaty takes time (and you can read the Withdrawal Agreement‘s many annexes for a relevant illustration of how politically not-so-important points can take up a lot of legal space), but it’s not as simple as saying that works on the same basis as the politics of the situation.

The post What do we talk about when we talk about Brexit? appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

I am writing this piece in response to the Hungarian opposition political parties’ agreement to create a joint programme for government and stand single candidates against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance party (Fidess) in all 106 electoral districts.

The Hungarian opposition’s pledge to unite and form an anti-Orban block for the next General elections seen as a positive move by some quarters, who want Orban gone for good. However, when I look at a similar case study country like Turkey, where alliances between the opposition political parties were formed to either to stand against Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in the Presidential elections in 2018 or Istanbul Mayoral elections against Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party in 2019, I can say that they do not always produce the desired outcome.

Political parties exist not only to promote the values they are formed on but also to stand in the elections to win a majority to implement their political agenda, which is usually put together before the elections, at least in democracies. While both the Freedom House and V-Dem no longer regard Turkey and Hungary as democracies, I could, to a certain extent, understand the functions of political parties may have changed in Hungary and Turkey.

The evidence suggests that the opposition political parties and their leadership in Hungary and Turkey are desperate to change the status quo. My interpretation of this is that elections for the opposition political parties in Hungary and Turkey are no longer about winning a majority to form a government so to exercise power and gain the opportunity to put their programme in action. However, it has subtly evolved from giving a kick to the governing political party to almost toppling the governing political party through an election that is usually not fought on fair and open grounds. 

What can explain is that by the opposition political parties’ oversight of their original purpose in politics, as well as playing politics with the rules set by Orban in Hungary and Erdogan in Turkey, either voluntarily or involuntarily, which does not change the outcome. Nevertheless, in this way the opposition political parties play an essential part in legitimising the autocratic political systems Orban and Erdogan has established over the last decade in their respective countries. 

I argue that, in the case of Hungary, the opposition political parties should go back to their roots and remember, what kind of Hungary they envisage, instead of putting all their energy in forming alliances to overthrow Orban’s administration.

They should look for answers to the following questions: do you want an open and democratic Hungary, which respects the EU values? What is your position on illiberal democracy? Do you prefer free Media? Do you aspire Hungary as a migrant-friendly country? How economically well off do you imagine Hungary? Then look for fresh policy ideas to develop attractive party programmes that could address these questions.They must also look for a leader who could convince the electorate that they could deliver on these policy ideas.

Otherwise, drawing on the Turkish case, I would say the following could be the future for the opposition political parties in Hungary: (i) perceived ‘lack of distinctiveness’; (ii) ‘disenchanted voters’; and (iii) ‘intensified polarisation’.

When political parties agree to form alliances on several occasions, my observation is that they end up losing their distinct characteristics in the eyes of the electorate. For instance, when the Turkish People’s Party (CHP) united with the Good Party (IP), Felicity Party (SP) and Democrat Party (DP) in 2018. It has raised many question marks about how is it possible for these political parties to come together while they sharply differ on issues like religion and nationalism. They ultimately caused a loss of confidence in politicians among the electorates.

The electorate observed the leadership of the opposition political parties as too soft on the issues that are too critical for them. When what differs political parties from each other disappears from the political spectrum, I predict that there would be an increase in disenchanted voters who not only have no confidence in political parties but also cannot feel any affiliation to them in terms of interest and values. In the case of Turkey, it is difficult to measure what impact the alliance among the opposition politicians have on the voter turnout since voting is compulsory. However, I will watch out for Hungary.

While polarisation is partly an indication of a healthy democracy since it means all segments of the society are allowed to express their differences freely, however alliances formed between the opposition political parties could produce an intensified polarisation of politics and society, sharply dividing the society into two camps. For instance, in the case of Turkey, the society is divided between anti-Erdogan and pro-Erdogan camps, and the divisions are sharpened each and every time there is an election. Similarly, in Hungary, we see an anti-Orban camp versing pro-Orban, which is subtly evolving. I argue that this not least is dangerous, but more importantly overshadows other interests and values of the electorate, which should be at the forefront of the political parties’ agendas and narratives.

The post Why alliance formation among opposition political parties is not a good idea? appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

This month 59 years ago – on 13 August 1961 – Berliners woke up to find that a wall was being built to split their city in two. To say it was a huge shock is an understatement.

It was not until 28 years later – in November 1989 – that Berliners ripped the wall down, using their hands and hammers.

It was a momentous moment in our continent’s history.

It led to the downfall of the Soviet communist regime, followed eventually by applications to join the European Union by most of the former Iron Curtain countries, fully supported and encouraged by our UK government.

It’s an event worth remembering, celebrating and, most of all, understanding.

Because for much of the last century, it was not just a major city, but our entire continent that was split in two, brutally separating European families and friends, communities and countries.

The planet’s only two world wars both originated right here, on our continent.

For hundreds of years, Europe was a continent whose history was regularly punctuated by the most vicious and nasty conflicts, wars and political oppression.

Between 1914 and 1945, around 100 million people in Europe needlessly lost their lives as a direct result of those wars, conflicts and oppression – including millions murdered on an industrial scale as a result of genocide.

It’s a shocking, despicable history of violence and subjugation, for which no one can be proud or nostalgic.

The second, and hopefully last, world war came to an end in 1945.

But then, instead of celebrating Europe’s liberation from Nazism, half of Europe’s countries found themselves consumed and subjugated by another totalitarian regime, Communism.

It was only 44 years later, as the Berlin wall began to crumble, that those countries could begin to see and feel freedom at last.

This was Europe’s gruelling and arduous road to peace and liberation that we should surely reflect upon.

When I recently visited Amsterdam, my Dutch friend said to me:

“Why are you doing Brexit? Europe is integrated now!”

Maybe this is something we, as islanders, simply don’t understand as deeply as those who live on the mainland of our continent.

Europe has suffered profound pain on its path to find peace and ‘integration’, following centuries of wars.

For many, the Second World War only ended in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the half of our continent that was hidden from us behind an ‘Iron Curtain’ was liberated at last.

We saw the fall of the oppressive Soviet Union, and many of the countries that had been trapped in its sphere then re-joined our family of countries through the European Union.

Following our continent’s long and harrowing journey, we have found peace between each other, and yes, integration at last.

And yet, in response, Britain is on a rapid road to an unharmonious Brexit, snubbing our friends and neighbours on our own continent, and putting at risk Europe’s profound and remarkable accomplishments of recent decades.

We may not be building a brick wall between our country and the rest of our continent, but Brexit is a wall nonetheless, that needlessly separates and divides us from our European family, friends and neighbours.

Do we really know what we’re doing?

• Watch this 3-minute video about the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989:

• Follow my journalism page on Facebook: Jon Danzig writes
• My campaign page on Facebook: Reasons2Rejoin
• And LinkedIn

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→ Brexit forgets historyTHE RISE AND FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL – 3-minute videoThis morning 59 years ago – on 13…

Posted by Jon Danzig on Thursday, 13 August 2020

 

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The BBC call them migrants; the Prime Minister and some other media call them illegal; some Tory MPs and Nigel Farage call them ‘invaders’.

They are none of those. They are mostly desperate, destitute, stateless men, women and children fleeing from war, torture, oppression and persecution.

Nobody risks their lives across treacherous waters in unsuitable and unsafe boats unless they are deeply distressed and determined, with nothing left to lose.

Why don’t they seek asylum in the first safe country or countries they reach? Because it isn’t that simple. You may think it is, but it isn’t.

• For one thing, some countries don’t want them. They really don’t.
• For another, escaping from danger – genuine, terrifying, deadly danger – is just part of it.

Then what?

Your country has been lost to you. The place you grew up, had family, memories, possessions, your home, your career. Now unsafe, maybe never safe to return.

You have to start again, either alone, or whoever you managed to bring with you.

Just a few want to get to the UK. Really, by comparison, it’s a tiny number. But the ones who tenaciously want to make it to our shores against all odds often have compelling reasons.

Speaking English, having family already here, colonial links; all high on the list.

 THEY ARE NOT MIGRANTS; THEY ARE NOT ILLEGAL Some politicians and media call refugees migrants. That’s entirely wrong.

• The term migrant means a person who moves from one place to another in order to find work or better living conditions. Migrants voluntarily leave their home countries for another and can voluntarily return home at any time.

That’s not the case for refugees.

• The term refugee means a person who has been forced to leave their country in order to escape war, persecution or natural disaster. They have to leave their homes involuntarily and they cannot return.

Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, says those who get here illegally are illegal and will be treated accordingly. It’s beyond bloody nasty.

It’s not asylum seekers who are illegal; it’s Mr Johnson for proposing that asylum seekers should be turned away, which would go against international law.

What other way is there for an asylum seeker to reach the UK unless by so-called illegal means?

Asylum can only usually be sought in the UK once in the UK. What a conundrum.

If the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary really cared about the plight, and safety, of desperate refugees (yes, most, but not all, are genuine refugees) then they would make the criminally induced hazardous journey across the English Channel entirely unnecessary.

The UK only takes a relatively low number of asylum seekers. We’re yet another so-called civilised country that doesn’t really want them.

If we wanted to help, we could allow refugees to apply for asylum without first having to endure a perilous voyage across the Channel to get here.

By making such a chancy crossing the only way to seek asylum here, the Prime Minister and Home Secretary are complicit in aiding and abetting odious gangsters who are making millions out of desolate people.

The language and actions of our current government are beyond despicable.

Like some of our media, they are advocating sheer hate against people who, in many cases, have been devastated as a direct result of our country’s violent interventions of their homes.

 SHAME ON BORIS JOHNSON Let’s be clear. Refugees are innocent.

• Under international law – signed up to by the UK – there is no such entity as an illegal asylum seeker or refugee.
• Under international law – signed up to by the UK – it is accepted that asylum seekers may often need to use irregular and illegal routes and cross many borders before applying for asylum.
• Under international law – signed up to by the UK – there is no legal obligation for an asylum seeker to seek asylum or to stay in the first safe country they reach.
• Under international law – signed up to by the UK – there is an absolute obligation to accept and offer refuge to asylum seekers who have genuinely had to escape from war and danger in their home countries.

Yes, the UK does offer asylum to those in that category who make it to our shores. But only after ensuring that they must first endure the most terrifying journey to get here.

Shame on you Boris Johnson, Priti Patel and those other politicians and media who promote that it’s the asylum seekers who are acting illegally.

• Watch this 2-minute video on how asylum seekers are being called ‘illegal’

• Follow my journalism page on Facebook: Jon Danzig writes
• My campaign page on Facebook: Reasons2Rejoin
• And LinkedIn

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→ Shame on Boris Johnson – 2-minute videoREFUGEES ARE NOT MIGRANTS OR ILLEGAL The BBC call them migrants; the Prime…

Posted by Jon Danzig on Tuesday, 11 August 2020

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The ongoing negotiations over a comprehensive trade agreement have sidelined discussion of Anglo-EU security and defense cooperation, and the future relationship between the EU and Britain is uncertain. Considering mounting tensions with China and Russia as well as the security implications of COVID-19, the evident neglect of security and defense is concerning.

Today’s EuroBlog entry – the first in a series of posts dedicated to the potential impact of Brexit on security and defense cooperation – hunts for clues among current defense projects. Though the projects are not directly under the purview of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) or Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), they impact available capabilities for CSDP missions and are broadly symbolic of European defense cooperation. In addition, I will consider how momentum from these projects may encourage disengagement.

The Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon (FC/ASW) Missile Program

The FC/ASW Missile Program is an interesting test case for Brexit’s impact on European defense. On the one hand, the two leading military powers in Europe – France and the UK – jointly fund the program. On the other, MBDA Missile Systems, a multinational, European venture involving the UK, France, Italy, Spain and Germany, oversees the project.

The impetus for the program reflects a blend of shared needs and bilateral commitments that predate Brexit. Practically speaking, the FC/ASW will replace the air-launched Scalp/Storm Shadow as well as the air-and-ship-launched Exocet and Harpoon anti-ship missiles used by the French and British navies. FC/ASW is especially important to the development of parallel capabilities for the deployment of its two aircraft carriers.

FC/ASW also came about thanks to the Materials and Components for Missiles, Innovation and Technology Partnership (MCM ITP) program, which grew out of the Lancaster House Treaty signed by France and Britain in 2010. The Lancaster House Treaty calls for “continuing and reinforcing the work on industrial and armament cooperation” and the “development of defence technological and industrial bases”, alongside other provisions involving Anglo-French cooperation in security and defense. The Treaty alludes to cooperation through related mechanisms in the European Union, but the agreement and its subsequent initiatives are bilateral in nature and outside the scope of EU-based defense and security programming.

Despite this distinction, there is an important historical link between Anglo-French defense cooperation and the CSDP. The St. Malo Declaration (1998), signed by Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac, called for developing the EU’s “capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military forces”. Blair and Chirac intended Anglo-French cooperation to be a means toward this end. We should view the FC/ASW against this backdrop as well.

A pivotal juncture for FC/ASW (and Anglo-French cooperation)

Phase one of FC/ASW, valued at €100 million, launched in 2017. In March 2019, MBDA confirmed successful completion of its ‘Key Review’, paving the way for in-depth studies of the “most promising concepts”. At the time, British and French officials welcomed this news and anticipated moving at some point this year to phase two involving further concept study, refinement and “road maps for the maturing of technologies”. Yet, as of August, neither Paris nor London have tendered contracts for phase two.

It is reasonable to assume that Brexit and COVID-19 have impacted the program’s prospects, but it is difficult to isolate the principal cause of uncertainty. Theoretically, Brexit should not have a direct effect on the commitment to FC/ASW. In fact, a joint review of the FC/ASW program by the French National Assembly and the UK House of Commons in late 2018 stipulated that, “Finally, as the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union, the FC/ASW programme offers an opportunity to demonstrate the growing strength of our bilateral defence cooperation.” The Johnson government, however, has not commented on the FC/ASW program since Brexit negotiations began in February. Furthermore, we have little insight into Johnson’s views on the importance of bilateral cooperation with France to his post-Brexit planning.

It is also unclear whether COVID-19 has compromised funding and slowed movement to phase two. The UK’s investment in upgrading its naval capabilities leads one to expect that there is will to maintain FC/ASW based upon need alone; yet Britain has not undertaken or, at least, publicized an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the program or resources going to the Ministry of Defense.

What we do know is the FC/ASW is at a pivotal juncture, and the expected deployment of FC/ASW in 2030 is in jeopardy.

Is FC/ASW part of a broader trend?

The FC/ASW program does not exist in a vacuum, and there is reason to doubt its future in light of the unexpected end to the joint Anglo-French unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) project. In 2014, France and the UK invested £120m in a two-year study spearheaded by BAE Systems and Dassault. The proposed Future Air Combat System would bring together work on UCAVs previously undertaken by each firm. BAE Systems and Dassault began concept work, but the project never made it to the planned second phase in 2017. Reasons for the change of heart remain obscure. According to Dassault’s chief, the impetus came from the British.

Some have cited Brexit as a contributing factor to the demise of the joint UCAV project, but there is reason to doubt this theory due to timing. Yes, the Brexit referendum intervened between the launch of the project and phase two, but the practical implications of Brexit were far from clear when the will to pursue the joint project evidently evaporated in early 2018.

If anything, Brexit may have indirectly contributed to a shift in political will within the May government that also impacted defense-related R&D. UCAV was simply an early casualty. Britain’s commitment to the Tempest fighter and LANCA unmanned drone, each initiated in 2018, is additional evidence of an apparent strategy to increasingly rely upon national firms for development and production.

The collapse of the joint UCAV project and the launch of the Tempest/LANCA programs overlap the FC/ASW program. If Britain opts out of phase two of FC/ASW, then there may be a sort of self-imposed Brexit underway in the European defense industry.

Necessity supersedes planning

Even if the United Kingdom does not intend to fully disengage from FC/ASW, necessity may force a change of direction. With respect to the FC/ASW program, the Royal Navy appears to be in a bit of a bind. The Harpoon system is scheduled to phase out in 2023 – seven years prior to the anticipated roll-out of FC/ASW. This will require a stop-gap procurement of some sort, perhaps extending Harpoon. It is possible, then, that British planners will opt to develop its own program along the lines of Tempest and LANCA, or opt for an available alternative. Either scenario would render the FC/ASW redundant.

Economic fallout from Brexit and COVID-19 could also increase the attractiveness of home-grown or cheaper systems due to the rising cost of inputs, limits on high-skilled labor mobility and financial strain. Meanwhile, in the near term, COVID-19 relief will influence budget decisions and encroach upon the pool of available funds for the Ministry of Defense. This says nothing about COVID-19’s impact on high-level dialogues, focusing attention on the ongoing trade negotiations and limiting opportunities for face-to-face diplomacy.

Ultimately, Britain must find a way to maintain her commitment to weapons systems that fit her most expensive investments under far-from-ideal circumstances. This does not bode well for either the FC/ASW or bilateral cooperation with France.

(Note: my next post will further investigate how the UK’s aircraft carrier program could lock-in outcomes to the detriment of close ties with the continent.)

Continental Drift?

In February, French President Macron delivered a keynote speech on European defense and deterrence. In the speech, Macron described a pressing need to grow Europe’s capacity for autonomous action, and positioned France in the vanguard of these efforts.

These comments came on the heels of an open letter to the British people, in which Macron exhorted Boris Johnson to “to draw on history to boldly build new, ambitious projects” and “deepen our defence, security and intelligence cooperation” in line with the Lancaster House Agreement.

Apparently, Macron did not then believe enhancing the EU’s security and defense capabilities contradicted his plea to Johnson. Unfortunately, we cannot – and should not – assume that Johnson shares Macron’s sentiments. The dominant ‘taking control’ and ‘global Britain’ narratives portend a fading bilateral relationship with France, as Macron’s former Europe minister recently lamented. And while this does not preclude Anglo-EU security and defense cooperation after Brexit, it certainly undermines it.

Even if there an inkling of a will in the Johnson government for pursuing joint defense projects with France, the converging storms of COVID-19 and Brexit threaten to jeopardize collaboration as planners react by scaling back and/or charting divergent paths to meet strategic imperatives. For this reason, we should keep a close eye on the FC/ASW program. If it survives, then there may yet be room for optimism.

****************

“Failure to launch?” is part one in a series, “Hunting for Clues on Brexit and the Future of Security and Defense Cooperation with Europe”.

The post Failure to launch? The implications of the FC/ASW Missile Program for post-Brexit defense cooperation appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

A transition period comes to a close, and the UK will no longer have to follow European Union rules, Richard Rose examines how Brexit could be reversed in whole or part.

In ‘getting Brexit done’, Boris Johnson’s government has taken full ownership of the consequences of leaving the European Union at a time when the economy is feeling the massive impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Downing Street can try to blame the pandemic for visible costs of Brexit, such as the loss of jobs dependent on EU exports, but even if it succeeds, it still risks losing electoral support.
The prospect of difficulties ahead has given the pro-EU movement some cause of optimism. Europhile think tanks are holding webinars and fundraising. They can draw comfort from demographics: younger pro-EU cohorts are gradually replacing ageing Eurosceptic so that those who voted for Brexit in the 2016 referendum will be a minority of the electorate by the time of the 2024 British general election.

But that does not change the reality that, at the end of this year, EU campaigners will have ended their last battle, against leaving without a deal. Even if the government does arrive at an agreement with Brussels, it will do so on Boris Johnson’s terms. These would hardly mitigate the economic disruptions that will begin to show on January 1 when the UK becomes a fully-fledged non-member state of the EU. At this point, political choices alter radically. The pro-Brexit group become the ‘Remainers’, wanting the UK to maintain its freedom from the EU. Pro-EU campaigners must find a new name and purpose, whether their goal is the United Kingdom once again becoming an EU member or the UK having a positive relation with Europe from outside the bloc. The strategic question for the government’s opponents to ask is: What would it take for the British government to undo Brexit?

Struggles ahead
Rejoining the EU is not possible on the same terms as the UK was previously a member with a budget rebate and no obligation to join the eurozone. Unlike a social club, the EU does not have a provision for members that drop out to be quickly re-instated. The British government could apply to become a new member state through existing EU procedures or, as a non-member state, seek a new deal on UK-EU relations that would improve the position arrived at by Downing Street’s negotiations with Michel Barnier this autumn. If expert forecasts of the impact of Brexit are correct, the rosy scenario promised by Brexiters will soon be seen as a mirage. Trade deals with the United States and China will not materialise while domestics costs will be real and visible.
Jobs will be lost in the Northern England ‘red wall’ constituencies that the Conservatives won last December. Labour shortages in hospitals, care homes and restaurants will produce worse service and higher costs. These developments will accelerate the arrival of the normal mid-term slump in government support and make Conservative MPs back off cheering a prime minister who identified their party with getting Brexit done. In order for British politicians to promote closer ties with Europe, the EU and its member states will need to be invisibly better economic and political shape than Britain. Whether this will be the case is problematic. The EU currently faces major divisions about the eurozone, foreign policy, immigration and respect for democracy in East European member states. The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated internal EU conflicts by hitting poorer Mediterranean countries harder than northern Europe.
If the state of Europe looks better, public opinion polls are likely to show an openness to undoing the effects of Brexit. Asking people how they would vote if a referendum were held on joining the EU is now hypothetical. The immediately relevant question is: Do you think leaving the European Union has been good or bad for the economy? The follow up question should ask: Do you think getting better relations with the European Union would help the British economy? As 2024 approaches, the ball will be at Keir Starmer’s feet. The Labour leader will have the chance to set his party’s general election manifesto. Its over-riding theme will be: Get the economy right. That leaves a place in the manifesto for a commitment to explore improving Britain’s trade with the Single Europe Market. This avoids premature pledge to a particular relationship when any outcome can only be determined by agreement with the EU.

A different EU
The European Union in 2025 will be different from the EU today. There will be a new European Commission formed after a new European Parliament is elected in May 2024. There will be a new Chancellor in Germany and France will have a president whose mandate will reflect its 2022 election. Just how much or little the eurozone has changed and how the coronavirus epidemic has encouraged a change in the Schengen commitment to the free movement of people within the EU will be clearer by 2025. While continental Europhiles hope to see events lead to an ever-closer union, the default position is that the EU changes by muddling through and more differentiated integration allows some member states to opt-out of further integration. If Starmer becomes prime minister, his first task will be the easiest: fence-mending with European politicians. Curiosity will make him a welcome visitor in Brussels. Within Whitehall, an inventory will be needed of laws and regulations that had been amended post-Brexit in ways departing from Single Europe Market standards. In parallel, a Commission should hold a public inquest into the consequences of Brexit for the British economy. Trade unions, downsized businesses, City of London institutions, universities and others should be invited to report examples of damage. Evidence of real damage will mobilise more political support for a new deal than Brexiter promises that future benefits will replace current damage.
Once the ground has been prepared, the government could publish realistic options in a green paper with a title such as ‘Improving Britain’s Relations with the Single Europe Market’. To keep its options open before negotiations with Brussels start, the green paper could canvass alternative forms of bilateral agreement ranging from a closer association than that of Norway, where the government is pro-EU and the voters are not, to a minimal Norway-minus deal. The EU has already signalled that given Britain’s economic and political importance, it would negotiate a one-off agreement for closer relations. A green paper should make clear how timeconsuming and arduous the process of joining the European Union would be. To become a member state the UK would have to accept without amendment the acquis communitaire, that is, the complete body of existing EU laws and regulations. Dozens of volumes of EU and UK laws would need to be collated to ensure that the UK adheres to EU standards or that it will make changes in order to join. In addition, the UK would be obligated to make a multi-billion commitment to the EU’s annual budget, accept decision making by qualified majority votes, and the enforcement of policies by the Court of Justice of the European Union. If the EU applies its current requirement for a new member state to be prepared to join the eurozone, that could sink any chance of a British government wanting to accept EU membership.

Undoing Brexit?
The only certain way to undo Brexit in the next Parliament is for a Labour government to negotiate an agreement with the EU restoring the mutual benefits of Britain trading with the Single Europe Market. A minority Labour government could rely on Scottish Nationalist and Liberal Democrat MPs to ensure a parliamentary majority for such an agreement. A Conservative demand for a referendum on such a measure could be rejected on the grounds that such a deal does not make the UK an EU member state. An economic relationship without the political influence of membership would only be half a loaf. Very committed pro-EU campaigners could, if they wished, take Eurosceptics as their model, and start a 20-year campaign to reverse the UK’s position outside the EU. However, for British politicians who have never wanted to make a meal of the European Union, close economic relations is sufficient. For British voters hungry to escape from an economy disrupted by both Brexit and coronavirus, BRINO (Brexit In Name Only) is better than no loaf at all.

 

 

Professor Richard Rose is Director of the Centre for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde Glasgow and a Visiting Fellow at the European University Institute Florence. His most recent book is ‘How Referendums Challenge European Democracy’.

 

 

This blog is also appearing in Political Insight, September 2020, a publication of the Political Studies Association of the UK.

 

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On 20 July 2020, British MPs voted by a majority not to have any say or votes on future UK trade agreements. Can you think of any other professions where you could vote not to do your job but still be paid for it?

Postmen and women voting not to deliver letters? Train drivers voting not to drive trains? Doctors voting not to treat patients?

Or indeed, politicians in the European Parliament voting to give up any say or votes on EU trade deals?

Inconceivable.

All European Union trade agreements must be scrutinised, debated and democratically passed, or rejected, by elected MEPs.

That’s what they are there for on behalf of their constituents, the citizens across Europe.

If MEPs voted not to do their job, there would be uproar.

Just as there should be uproar in the UK now that our MPs have voted to discard their duties on behalf of us, their constituents across the UK, by deciding to have no say or votes on the country’s future trade agreements.

But then just look at the parlous state of democracy in the UK, in which:

• Our UK Parliament has 1,458 members – 808 of them unelected (on 31 July 2020, the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, appointed 36 new legislators to the House of Lords – one of them, his brother Jo).
• We have an unelected head of state (who has no real power to intervene on important issues).
• We have an old-fashioned voting system of first-past-the-post (for the European Parliament, voting is by proportional representation).
• We have governments that can bypass Parliament with the use – and abuse – of arcane and ancient Royal Prerogatives and Henry VIII clauses.
• We have a legislative system whereby most laws are made by Statutory Instruments, drafted by the Civil Service, which cannot be amended by Parliament and most of which become law automatically, without a Parliamentary vote.
• We have a Prime Minister who could (until it was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court) close down Parliament for an extended period at his will and without Parliamentary approval.
• We had a referendum in which two out of the four members of the United Kingdom voted no to Brexit, but we’ve gone ahead with it anyway.

None of these undemocratic situations could occur in the EU.

But how many people truly know that the EU is a democracy?

For years, Brexit politicians and papers have been selling us the blatant lie that the EU is run by unelected bureaucrats.

Let me take this opportunity to explain why that is not the case.

 EU MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS In the EU, democratic governance is the number one requirement of European Union membership.

In 1962, the year after Britain first applied to join the EEC, Spain also applied.

The country was then governed by authoritarian dictator, Francisco Franco. Spain’s membership application was flatly and unanimously rejected by all members of the European Community.

The reason? Because Spain wasn’t a democracy.

Indeed, if the UK was applying to join the EU now, recent events could present questions over the validity of our application and whether our democratic governance is currently robust enough.

Remember, the Tories are committed to scrapping our Human Rights Act and they oppose the European Union’s Charter of Fundamental Rights. In the recent past, the Tory government has also threatened to leave the European Convention on Human Rights.

That would likely bar us from joining the EU, where a commitment to human rights is also a strict membership requirement.

Before becoming a member of the EU, an applicant country must demonstrate that it has a stable government guaranteeing:

• Democracy
• The rule of law
• Human rights
• Respect for and protection of minorities
• The existence of a functioning market economy
• The capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union

Most countries that applied to join the EU did not meet these strict membership requirements and so they needed many years to prepare for the process before their application could be accepted.

 EU MEMBERS Contrary to what many people in Britain understand, the EU is a democracy, democratically run by its members.

These comprise the democratically elected governments and Parliaments of EU member states, alongside the directly elected European Parliament.

All the treaties of the EU, upon which all EU laws must be compatible, and any new countries applying to join the EU, must be unanimously and democratically agreed by all the national parliaments of every EU member state, however large or small.

In some EU countries, according to their national constitutions, agreement must also be obtained by regional parliaments and national referendums.

All the EEC/EU treaties since Britain joined the EU 47 years ago were fully debated and democratically passed by our Parliament in Westminster.

Not once were any changes to our EU membership imposed upon us, and neither could they be, as the EU is a democracy.

In addition, every EU country has a veto on any treaty changes or any new country joining.

(Compare that to our referendum of 2016, when Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against Brexit, but it made no difference.)

 THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT The European Parliament is the EU’s law-making body, alongside the EU Council, which comprises the departmental ministers of democratically elected governments of every EU country.

The Parliament is directly elected every five years by citizens in all EU countries. The latest European elections were held in May 2019.

There are 705 MEPs (we used to have 73 MEPs from the UK representing us in Europe; alas, no more)

Each European country is proportionally represented in the Parliament according to their size of population.

EU laws can only be passed by the European Parliament in concert with the EU Council (also called the Council of Ministers).

The Council of Ministers shares law making and budgetary powers with the European Parliament. When voting on proposed EU laws, its meetings must be public.

Alongside the Council, the European Parliament has the democratic power to accept, amend or reject proposed laws and regulations.

According to extensive research by VoteWatch Europe, over 97% of adopted EU laws in the 12 years to 2016 were supported by the UK.

There are proposals to give the European Parliament new powers to directly initiate legislation, as well as to vote on it.

 THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION The European Commission is the servant of the EU, and not its master. Ultimately, the Commission is beholden to the European Parliament, and not the other way around.

The Commission President must be elected by an absolute majority of all MEPs (i.e. over 50% of them).

Indeed, Ursula von der Leyen could only become Commission President with the democratic backing of over half of all MEPs.

Each Commissioner must also be democratically approved by the European Parliament in a strict vetting process. The Parliament has the democratic power to reject candidate Commissioners – as it did last autumn.

The Parliament also has the democratic power to sack the entire Commission at any time during its five-year tenure.

The Commission is responsible for implementing the democratic decisions of the EU, upholding and enforcing democratically passed EU laws and treaties, and managing the day-to-business of the EU.

The Commission also proposes new laws, but they only do this in close collaboration with the European Parliament and Council of Ministers, as only the Parliament and Council can pass laws.

The Commission has zero power to pass any laws.

Before the Commission proposes new laws, it prepares ‘Impact Assessments’ which set out the advantages and disadvantages of possible policy options.

The Commission then consults interested parties such as non-governmental organisations, local authorities and representatives of industry and civil society. Groups of experts also give advice on technical issues.

In this way, the Commission ensures that legislative proposals correspond to the needs of those most concerned and avoids unnecessary red tape.

Citizens, businesses and organisations also participate in the consultation procedure. National parliaments can also formally express their reservations if they feel that it would be better to deal with an issue at national rather than EU level.

 THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL The European Council consists of the democratically elected leaders of each EU country – their Prime Ministers and Presidents. It is the EU’s supreme political authority.

The Council does not negotiate or adopt EU laws, but it does democratically set the political goals and priorities of the European Union, including the policy agenda of the Commission.

The Council also democratically chooses candidates for the post of Commission President, which the European Parliament must then elect with an absolute majority of MEPs.

The Council President reports to the European Parliament.

 UK MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU During our membership, Britain democratically helped to run and rule the EU, and not the other way around. Whatever the EU is and has become, Britain helped to create it.

Indeed, the EU can become whatever all its members unanimously agree it can become. But of course, that only applies to EU members, and not to ex-members.

Outside of the EU, Britain can only watch as democratic decisions about the running and future direction of our continent are decided without us, even though those decisions will affect us just as much, whether we are a member or not.

Leaving the EU has meant a loss of sovereignty. We no longer have any democratic representation on our continent.

And now, Brexit has directly led to us having less democratic representation in our country.

• Follow my journalism page on Facebook: Jon Danzig writes
• My campaign page on Facebook: Reasons2Rejoin
• And LinkedIn

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El 21 de julio, se produjo un terrible crimen de odio y un asalto agravado en las cercanías del Consulado General de la República de Azerbaiyán en Los Ángeles, California; ubicado en 11766 Wilshire Blvd. A plena luz del sol, una multitud de jóvenes armenios radicales atacaron físicamente a un grupo de manifestantes azerbaiyanos – estadounidenses. Al final del enfrentamiento, siete personas resultaron heridas, entre ellas una mujer. Cuatro de las víctimas fueron hospitalizadas, un ciudadano permanece en estado crítico. Dicho asalto masivo contra manifestantes pacíficos constituye un crimen de odio, basado en el origen nacional y étnico.

Aquí se encuentra información de fondo sobre la protesta:

Cerca de 5 mil manifestantes armenios se manifestaron frente al Consulado General de la República de Azerbaiyán en la Avenida Willshire luego de un estallido en la frontera internacional entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán. Desde el 12 de julio, por pedido de Rusia, las fuerzas armadas de Armenia lanzaron varios ataques contra las posiciones del ejército azerbaiyano y bombardearon aldeas azerbaiyanas en el distrito de Tovuz a lo largo de la frontera. Las hostilidades en el otro lado del planeta desencadenaron una serie de protestas en todo el mundo, incluido Estados Unidos. Un grupo de 50 azerbaiyanos – estadounidenses llevó a cabo una contra protesta pacífica expresando descontento contra las acciones del ejército armenio. Los manifestantes armenios cantaron varios insultos contra el pueblo de Azerbaiyán y pueblo de Turquía. El Departamento de Policía de Los Ángeles (LAPD) fue llevado al lugar para controlar las protestas y mantener la ley y el orden. Durante la protesta, la situación se salió de control y LAPD no pudo contener al gran grupo armenio de manifestantes. Una multitud de manifestantes armenios rodeó al grupo de azeríes y agredió a una mujer y seis hombres.

No hace falta decir que hay una población de Armenia considerable en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles, la mayoría de los cuales hacen una contribución significativa a Los Ángeles y a los Estados Unidos. Dicho esto, algunos pueden haber estado protestando pacíficamente. Sin embargo, algunos están ocupados prometiendo su lealtad al nacionalismo violento y radical. Uno no se sorprendería si el núcleo de las olas violentas que atacan a los azerbaiyanos -estadounidenses estuvieran formadas por miembros de la pandilla del Poder Armenio, que es infame por sus actividades criminales y violentas en el área de Los Ángeles.
(https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/armenian-criminal-enterprise-dealt-serious-blow)

Este incidente es un crimen de odio, basado en el origen nacional y étnico. De acuerdo con el código penal 422.55 PC de California, este incidente DEBE investigarse como un delito de odio. La Ciudad de Los Ángeles es una metrópolis diversa, cuyos residentes representan casi todas las culturas, nacionalidades, razas, religiones, orientación sexual, afiliación política y discapacidad física. Lamentablemente, algunos grupos e individuos específicos que están motivados por el odio y están dispuestos a actuar violentamente hacia los demás en función de estas diferencias. Ya se informó que LAPD comenzó a investigar este incidente como un crimen de odio, después de que tres víctimas azerbaiyanas presentaron un informe ante la policía.

En los siguientes días, algunas cuentas de redes sociales que son propiedades de elementos radicales de la comunidad armenia publicaron en redes sociales solicitando información personal como domicilios para azerbaiyanos étnicos que viven en el área de Los Ángeles en un esfuerzo por localizarlos y atacarlos. Es indignante y extremadamente peligroso para mí, mi familia y todos en mi comunidad, ya que los radicales armenios pueden estar buscando a los azeríes en el área.

Es probable que los principales medios de comunicación no estén cubriendo mucho este grave incidente, y es por eso por lo que le insto a que tome nota e informe sobre este crimen de odio y situación peligrosa hacia los miembros de un grupo étnico aislado para que la policía en cada ciudad comience a actuar y preocuparse.

 

Vugar Seidov

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Center – Security

Derrida emphasized that the main ‘structurality of structure’ is shadowed by giving it a perfect center, and it has been deemed mandatory that everything work along that center. The center enables a closed totality, and it will be unimaginable if anyone brings out a notion of a structure without a center.

A center is essentially always defined in system to authoritatively forbid any play of meaning, Derrida exclaimed. The concept of structure with a center has been enunciated to keep everything flowing in one certain way. The purpose of implying certainty by giving a center is to nullify the probability of problems or different ideas and practices other than those certified. Similarly a presence of a center eradicates anxiety and the main goal of West has always been to find a ‘center’, which is dubbed the most secure and imperceptible place.

Terry Eagleton elaborated this notion arguing that western metaphysics have always clung to a word, a supposed truth etc. for security and basis for their learning. Notions like the “God, the idea, the world spirit, the self,” accomplish the very task of attaining a center. Derrida highlighted that there have been an innate desire to stick to some ideals or center and this is the reason western metaphysics have created a system of standards.

Nietzsche, Freud and Heidegger – attempts of decentering

Derrida proclaimed that “the center is not the center,” in the Structure, Sign and Play he announced that a rupture has occurred in the conceptual framework of western metaphysics. The assumed center is not there.  He then furthered it by mentioning the antecedents to such rupture, which are Nietzsche, Freud and Heidegger.

Nietzsche questioned the long standing precedence of truth and being and substituted it with notions of play and interpretation. Freud critiqued the ascendancy of mind which had been hailed all autonomous in pre-Freudian times. And lastly but importantly Heidegger demanded dismantling of metaphysics and to quit ‘determination of Being as presence.’ Derrida emphasized that these attempts to subvert the center nevertheless contend to the same jargon of metaphysics. Although, confirming to the jargon of metaphysics, Derrida asserted that there has been a displacement of center. The center does not fulfill its duty that is to magnetize everything towards it; instead it denotes to other signs and those signs lead to other signs, the attainment of meaning becomes a vicious circle.

The Rupture in Western Metaphysics

Peter Barry explicated such rupture or decentering more clearly. He reminded us that before Nietzsche and Freud etc. there had been an order of things. Man was epicenter of everything, there were codes of how to dress, class of architecture, a pattern of intellectual paradigmatic growth. But certain events changed it. Derrida call them rupture while Peter Barry more specifically mentioned those ruptures. World War I obliterated any development that was going on, holocaust dismantled Europe as the center of human cooperation and respect. Even the empirical findings on relativity changed our thinking about time and space, as they are no longer considered fixed centers. The end result is a world with no center and authority.

Decentering Europe

Husserl and Heidegger evaluated Europe philosophically on the notions of identity of Europe, “spiritual unity of Europe,” and European Spirit. Derrida has also worked on those two philosophers’ footsteps and similar to them did not consider Europe as merely a geographical division on world. Ultimately, he took some of Husserl and Heidegger’s ideas, postulated some and created grounds to make news for decentered Europe.

For Husserl, Europe is a transcendental philosophical idea born in seventh century Greece. Derrida questioned such notions, in such a manner that he tried to subvert Husserl’s own argument, asking if Europe is a pure idea then place of this idea could easily be replaced with Asia or Africa.  And Husserl should not have a problem but still it is not possible. The phenomenological idealism does not specify a date and place to the distinctive character of cognition of European race. But despite that, Husserl saw idea of Europe as an ephemeral idea actually conceived in the mind of philosophers of Greece.

Derrida debated this single source of Europe and emphasized that knowledge coming down to us about truth and being is not fundamentally Greek. Because Europe is fundamentally influenced by the interconnecting varied integration of other traditions, notions and languages like Arabic, Jewish, Christian, Roman and Germanic which have their own integral position and are not some tertiary additions. Derrida insisted that this is all because Europe has not unfurled only Greek deal but is equally affected by all factors passing through Europe, and these factors should be taken stock of.

In ascertaining the identity of Europe, Derrida established a prerequisite to look at what was moved through and interpreted and translated by Europeans from Arabic of before Quran times and after Quran and also from Rome. As well as when Husserl debarred Indians, Gypsies and Eskimos from his European humanity; Derrida saw this concept as hampering any prospect of openness to other, to openness to anything other than European.

Not only Derrida drew a European identity bisected by different origins, he created doubt about the assumption that philosophy has Greek basis. He also tallied with the idea that Greek thought might be substituted with Chinese or even African thought. He added that although not new, the importance of such question remains intact, that is philosophy being only European and exactly Greek.

By supplicating the idea of Chinese or African philosophy instead of European, Derrida was trying to show the ambiguity inherent in it and henceforth in idea of Europe. If we take western philosophy founding basis of Europe we should take in stock that the Greek philosopher considering themselves European is highly debatable.

Derrida, in The Other Heading, queried about defining boundaries of Europe and ultimately giving it a center. He said that this is not possible because there are no fixed borders of Europe either spiritually, politically or geographically. Its geographic borders get blurred everywhere be it to the east or west, north or south. Spiritually if we take it as the hybrid of European Christianity, then is it catholic, protestant or orthodox? This is as confusing as the concept that Europe’s unity is due to its philosophy or reason, its Jewish linkages or Greek heritage. Moreover, if we take Jerusalem as epicenter, how can we rip apart Islamic memories associated with Jerusalem or forget the fact that Jerusalem is itself dispersed in Athens, Rome, Moscow and even Paris.

 

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Greenhouse gas monitoring – and increasingly climate policy monitoring, meaning the continuous tracking of policies with indicators – has existed since the early 1990s – and is thus a long-standing practice. For a long time, most people thought it to be a very technical exercise of low politics, but our new work demonstrates that this is no longer the case.

The EU’s 2050 ‘net zero’ greenhouse gas emissions target means that substantial emissions reductions will have to happen in every policy sector, be it energy, agriculture or transport. We argue in a new open access paper in the Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning that the EU must continue to enhance its capacity for policy monitoring to be able to verify continuous progress in each sector.

Especially in the wake of the 2015 Paris Agreement, policy monitoring and review has become the core way in which the international community seeks to reach climate targets. Building on this approach, there are now new efforts to supplement the reporting on individual climate policies through the EU’s Monitoring Mechanism with ‘harder’ elements.

‘Harder’ elements may be understood as efforts to enhance the policy steering capacity of ‘softer’ policy monitoring. In our paper, we demonstrate that recent legislative revisions of the monitoring mechanism have introduced several of these ‘harder’ elements. These include making the monitoring more specific (by, for example requiring the EU Member States to report on their low-carbon development strategies and on climate adaptation), enhancing the publicity of monitoring data and thus its visibility, and linking the monitoring more closely with effort sharing mechanisms and the emerging Energy Union. See Table 1.

These harder elements emerged from an entrepreneurial Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Environment Agency, all of which preferred enhanced climate policy monitoring. Member State support for these efforts proved more ambivalent, leading to some compromises in for example not making all aspects of climate policy monitoring legally binding.

The underlying idea is that transparency, coupled with pressure from national peers and potentially the public (the hardening elements), will push the Member States onto a policy path that is consistent with net zero emissions by 2050. Furthermore, focusing on policy monitoring rather than on prescribing particular policies may also allow for greater flexibility in experimenting with different solutions, and help identify the most effective approaches.

It appears that the European Green Deal, as well as the proposed European Climate Law also build on the presence of monitoring provisions. However, the ultimate effects of seeking to enhance policy effectiveness with monitoring remain uncertain, because in spite of some analysis of policy monitoring efforts – to which our work contributes – researchers are only just beginning to assess the capacity of policy monitoring in delivering policy outcomes that contribute to a stable climate.

References:

Schoenefeld, J.J. & Jordan, A. (2020). Towards Harder Soft Governance? Monitoring Climate Policy in the EU. Journal of Environmental Policy and Planning. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2020.1792861 [OPEN ACCESS]

Schoenefeld, J. J., Schulze, K., Hildén, M., & Jordan, A. J. (2019). Policy Monitoring in the EU: The Impact of Institutions, Implementation, and Quality. Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 60(4), 719-741. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-019-00209-2 [OPEN ACCESS]

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The coronavirus measures implemented by the EU and member states have had differentiating effects, which ultimately may lead to further fragmentation of the European political system, argues EU3D researcher Filippa Chatzistavrou.

The banner ‘Recovery Plan for Europe’ on the front of the Berlaymont building (Photo: European Commission)

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a global health and economic crisis. According to the World Bank, it has caused the worst economic recession with the highest drop in GDP since 1871. Besides the common features of the pandemic and the striking similarities in the tools chosen by EU member states for tackling the coronavirus, new patterns of differentiation are emerging. These differentiating effects are associated with member states’ systemic resilience and structural ability to tackle the health crisis and its socio-economic effects; and with member states’ capacity to benefit from EU measures to mitigate the social and economic impact of COVID-19.

Differing capacities and resources

The first trend of (internal) territorial differentiation refers to the COVID-19 measures taken by individual countries in relation to their differing capacities and resources. The socio-economic impact on economies and societies varies across European countries depending on the harshness and extent of government containment measures. In the old West, countries with strong public finances and solid health care systems, (more or less) sufficient capacity for vital medical supplies and equipment, and good level of public health emergency preparedness, had to choose between two alternatives. Either adopt strict emergency lock-down measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 while offering generous economic compensations, thus succeeding in keeping the number of deaths down (Denmark, Finland), or adopt milder lock-down measures while experiencing low or quite low death rates (Germany, Austria, Netherlands). Countries with vulnerable or weak public finances and health care systems, low capacity for vital medical supplies and equipment and low level of public health emergency preparedness, due at least partly to austerity policies, were forced to impose severe quarantine measures (Italy, Greece, France, Spain) while experiencing (except Greece) high death rates.

The socio-economic impact on economies and societies varies across European countries depending on the harshness and extent of government containment measures.

While economic compensatory measures varies from one country to another, their distributive effects risk accentuating existing disparities within Southern European countries. As a result, these countries now face a far worse economic downturn and deep social changes. Unless this is resolved, the lock-down generation will be condemned to youth unemployment and salary dumping. The dramatic increase of temporary, part-time or short-term jobs could further worsen working conditions, especially in countries whose economies depends on a product or resource for economic growth (mono-cultural economies) – and/or their industrial development depends on other EU and non-EU countries. In Southern Europe, deindustrialisation processes has made some countries highly dependent on their tourism sector, which has been heavily affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Differing effects of EU measures

The second trend of differentiating effects is associated with the (temporary) derogations from monetary, fiscal policy and single market rules initiated by the EU (i.e. the lifting of the 33% threshold for the purchase of government bonds, the suspension of the Stability and Growth Pact terms, and the relaxation of cohesion programmes and state aid rules). The EU initiated these measures in order to mitigate the economic impacts of the COVID-19 measures and to provide flexibility to member states. The EU’s most competitive and dynamic economies benefited to a much greater extent from these measures than the more vulnerable and/or (heavily) indebted economies. Germany granted four times as many state aids as France and even more compared with other EU member states. Corporate bailouts are being discussed without calling into question the problems of corporate governance (e.g. unfair ‘competition’ practices, paying dividends during the pandemic crisis as well as dividend policy in general, casino economy etc.). At EU level, the European Central Bank (ECB) has asked banks not to pay dividends. At national level, however, whether to freeze the payment of dividends has largely been left up to the discretion of companies. Following the EU framework for the screening of foreign direct investments that officially entered into force on April 2019, protectionist government measures are also high on the post-COVID agenda in many EU member states. France announced a public investment program of 1.2 billion euros in order to prevent high-tech start-ups acquisition by US and Chinese companies. Τhere is now increased pressure to develop policies of ‘préférence nationale’ in order to maintain employment in the national territory. Furthermore, 18 EU countries are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and the pandemic crisis has reinforced Serbia’s ties with China. Belgrade could become a key country in China’s regional plans.

Possible fragmentation of the European political system

Corona differentiation reveals how the politics of ‘clubs’ – the proliferation of competitive coalitions of EU member states becoming more diverse in their preferences – may further nurture forms of politico-economic dominance as well as cultivate oppressive forms of corporate power-lobbies and consequently further accelerate the fragmentation of the political order at the EU level. In the post-COVID-19 age, we have already witnessed examples of the fragmentation of the European system of rule. Faced with a serious post-corona labour market crisis, some member states will be able to provide social safety net measures against labour market dislocation and social dumping, while others, like Southern countries struggling with indebtedness, will not. The EU made efforts to mobilise public funds through complementary financial instruments in order to protect employment during the COVID-19 period, such as European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF), the Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative (CRII), the SURE instrument, while the European Investment Bank provided a financing package for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

A new dividing line is emerging between the countries that state their intent to boost their national ‘industrial sovereignty’, according to Macron’s terms, through public investment, and the countries that will continue to pursue radical restrictive fiscal policies.

However, there is a risk of misappropriation of these funds by some member states, thus increasing their margins of administrative and political discretion. The implementation of the SURE instrument in Greece has raised a lot of concern about the risk of misusing these loans in order to cut wages in the private sector and/or to proceed in contractual hiring in the public sector with lower wages. Therefore, a new dividing line is emerging between the countries that state their intent to boost their national ‘industrial sovereignty’, according to Macron’s terms, through public investment, and the countries that will continue to pursue radical restrictive fiscal policies through non-redistributive forms of taxation and privatisations.

Recent debates on the COVID-19 rescue deal remind us of the extent of political-economic distortions between EU member states. Northern countries that benefited the most from the single market are strongly opposed to debt mutualisation (i.e. the equal share of costs and profits among EU member states). The example of the Netherlands as a free rider is notable since the country can promise capital and higher profits by initiating fiscal dumping practices while showing aversion for effective European tax instruments.

The proposal for the next generation EU recovery plan, despite its ‘all EU member states inclusive’ nature, may also produce asymmetric effects in the member states, as was the case with EU policy responses to the previous economic and financial crisis, thus creating new dependencies and new channels of intrusion. The bail out policies of the single market come in various forms, i.e. medium-term softening of fiscal rules as well as temporary grants and loans through joint borrowing without debt mutualisation. This rescue scheme could enable non-Eurozone member states to benefit from the rate and credibility of the euro. But Eurozone member states, especially those who are faced with an emergency and need to inject resources, will have to accept top-down allocation of financial aid based on conditionality and top-down structural reforms.

A new constitutional moment?

This could be a new ‘constitutional moment’, which is about deciding who gets funding, and which enterprises are going to fall. This is the reason why, among other agenda items, current discussions focus on the crucial question of surveillance. In order to channel money to where the needs are, regulatory surveillance could be established ex ante so that funds will be allocated after national reform programmes are approved at the EU level. In such a case, other member states via the European Council or the European Parliament could have a right of veto and suspend the funding if a reform programme is considered not to have been properly implemented at the national level. In such a context, the issue of the role of the European Parliament and of national parliaments is central, as, from a surveillance perspective, there is an increased risk of diversion from the parliamentary function. Instead of exercising oversight over other European institutions/national governments and looking into violations of EU/national law, parliamentary actors risk becoming evaluators of the progress of structural reforms, thus being co-opted to support the European Council and Commission rather than holding them accountable.

If the modus operandi of the EU continues to be based on the politics of ‘clubs’, differentiation policies will reinforce the idea of multiple Europe(s) perpetuating the role of supranational institutions as (regulatory) facilitators of the European integration process.

The post The differentiating effects of COVID-19 in Europe appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

An opinion by Jolyon Gumbrell

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have so far been successful in getting their message across, when it comes to fighting Covid-19. Each of the three devolved nations of the United Kingdom has its own spokesperson to update the public on measures that need to be followed to stop the spread of the virus, while England the fourth nation of the United Kingdom is left to be told what to do by a spokesperson from the UK Government. This situation illustrates the problem that devolution was never completed by Tony Blair’s government between 1997 and 2007, meaning England was deprived of its own dedicated assembly or parliament and government separate from Westminster and Whitehall.

If the constitutional situation in the United Kingdom is to be tidied up, then the Westminster Parliament in London should become the federal parliament for the whole of the United Kingdom and nothing else, while England should be allowed and required to form its own parliament preferably outside of London in a geographically central city such as Birmingham. Likewise the UK Government would become the federal government of the United Kingdom, while England like the other nations of the Union would have its own government formed by members of its own dedicated parliament. This would alleviate the inbalance and democratic deficit of the English not having their own parliament.

A future historian may one day write that if the English had been allowed their own parliament within the United Kingdom, then Brexit would not have happened. Although such an argument would not explain Welsh support for leaving the European Union in the referendum of 2016, it would help explain the direction English nationalism had taken at the time of the EU referendum.

Fintan O’Toole, the author of ‘Heroic Failure Brexit and the politics of pain’ used the term “sublimation of Englishness into Britishness” to explain how at one time the English dominated the other nations of the British Isles, by the imposition of an English cultural identity on all parts of the Union. This may explain why politicians behind devolution in the late 1990s never planned for England to be devolved from the United Kingdom unlike the other three nations, because England had always been the most powerful nation of the Union. However without English devolution the situation has reversed itself, turning England into a zone more subordinate to Westminster and Whitehall than the other three nations of the United Kingdom. At the time of the referendum many people in England already felt disenfranchised, and this anger was easily directed against the European Union instead of the failed constitutional framework of the United Kingdom.

The United Kingdom left the European Union on 31st January 2020, but the public have been distracted away from Brexit by the consequences of Covid-19. However, once the transition period ends on 31st December 2020 the United Kingdom will no longer have access to European markets unless a trade agreement can be arranged. The UK’s negotiating position would be stronger, if the EU negotiators could be confident that British standards matched those of the EU, in areas such as consumer and environmental protection and workers rights. The problem for the UK is it does not have a written constitution which recognises human rights and the rule of law. A written constitution would also clearly state that all four nations of the United Kingdom are equal and recognise all of the democratically elected parliaments and assemblies. But without an English assembly or parliament separate from Westminster this is not possible.

Sources

O’Toole, Fintan; (2019) Heroic Failure Brexit and the politics of pain, Head of Zeus Ltd., London.

Bryant, Chris (ed.) (2007) Towards a new constitutional settlement, The Smith Institute, London.

©Jolyon Gumbrell 2020

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Some people say it was undemocratic for Britain to join the European Community in 1973 because ‘the people’ weren’t asked in a referendum. But that’s not how decisions are made in Britain.

In the UK, referendums are usually nothing more than opinion polls. They are not legally binding and therefore not capable of making decisions.

Indeed, both the 1975 and 2016 referendums on whether the UK should remain a member of the European Community were not binding votes, but simply a ‘poll’ of the country’s ‘opinion’.

A general election has far more democratic legitimacy and legality than a referendum.

In this country, it’s our Parliament that is sovereign and Parliament gains that power through the voting public.

General elections represent legally binding votes that give authority to a party or parties to form a government.

 REFERENDUMS VERSUS PARLIAMENT

Referendums are flimsy affairs compared to general elections.

Parliament had the legal and democratic power to reject the ‘advice’ of the 2016 referendum if it so chose.

Even if we’d had another referendum, it would have been another advisory vote. Only Parliament can make the final decision (a key point confirmed by a ruling of the Supreme Court).

Since it is Parliament in our country that is sovereign, it is clearly the case that a vote to give power to one party or another in a general election is far superior to an ‘advisory’ referendum result.

And there’s another thing: Referendums are lousy ways to make democratic decisions, especially compared to how our representative Parliament works.

• When making a decision, our Parliament has many debates, multiple votes, often over several months, based on full information, with opportunities to consider updated information throughout the process, and with the democratic power to amend or abandon the decision at any stage.
• By contrast, in the referendum on 23 June 2016 we, ‘the people’, only had one vote, on one day, on a simplistic binary choice of only two words, without sufficient information (on the contrary, a lot of misinformation), without any opportunities to consider updated information, and with no democratic opportunity to amend or abandon the decision.

That can hardly be described as a democratic process, let alone a good way to make big decisions.

 MANIFESTO PROMISES

The decision to join the European Economic Community (now called the European Union) was confirmed by ‘the people’ voting for parties that offered that in their manifestos in general elections.

 WHEN IN 1961, Conservative Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, applied for the UK to join the then European Economic Community, ‘the people’ had given him a mandate to do so in the 1959 general election.

The Tory manifesto for that election stated:

‘our aim remains an industrial free market embracing all Western Europe’.

 WHEN IN 1967, Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, applied again for the UK to join the European Community, ‘the people’ had given him a mandate to do so in the 1966 general election.

The Labour manifesto for that election stated:

‘Labour believes that Britain, in consultation with her E.F.T.A. partners, should be ready to enter the European Economic Community, provided essential British and Commonwealth interests are safeguarded.’

 WHEN IN 1973, Conservative Prime Minister, Edward Heath, negotiated Britain’s membership of the European Community, ‘the people’ had given him a mandate to do so in the 1970 general election.

The Conservative manifesto for that election stated:

‘If we can negotiate the right terms, we believe that it would be in the long-term interest of the British people for Britain to join the European Economic Community, and that it would make a major contribution to both the prosperity and the security of our country.’

The manifesto added:

‘The opportunities are immense. Economic growth and a higher standard of living would result from having a larger market.’

 PARLIAMENT’S DECISION TO JOIN

Having negotiated the terms of membership, Edward Heath could not then unilaterally make the decision to go ahead and join.

The Tory manifesto promised:

‘As the negotiations proceed, we will report regularly through Parliament to the country.’

Ultimately, it was the decision of Parliament – not Mr Heath – on whether to join the European Community.

Following 300 hours of debate, Parliament voted for the UK to accept the terms of membership as confirmed in the European Communities Act 1972.

Consequently, Britain became a member of the European Economic Community (EEC) from 1 January 1973.

Was it a legitimate, democratic decision? Yes, of course.

Decisions in the UK are decided by our representatives in Parliament; a system of democracy that has served this country relatively well for hundreds of years.

After all, we have not had referendums to decide whether to join or leave the United Nations, or NATO, or the European Convention on Human Rights, or to agree to over 14,000 international treaties, including EU treaties.

These were rightly decisions of our democratically elected Parliament and government*. If not, the British public would have to spend almost every week of their lives voting in referendums, and what then would be the point of MPs?

(*Albeit, still using an outmoded voting system of first-past-the-post, which can mean election results that are not representative of the nation as a whole.)

 RECENT MANIFESTOS

What about recent decisions regarding our membership of the European Union? This is where the track record becomes murky.

 WHEN IN 2016, Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron, organised an in/out referendum on our EU membership, ‘the people’ had given him a mandate to do so in the general election of 2015.

The Conservative manifesto for that election stated:

‘We will legislate in the first session of the next Parliament for an in-out referendum to be held on Britain’s membership of the EU before the end of 2017…

‘We will honour the result of the referendum, whatever the outcome.’

That 2015 manifesto, however, didn’t specify at all what kind of Brexit Britain would have in the event of Leave winning.

On the contrary, the manifesto promised:

‘We are clear about what we want from Europe. We say: yes to the Single Market.’

The other problem with the 2015 manifesto is that whilst the Tories could make a political pledge to honour the referendum, they could not bind Parliament to agree to the result of an advisory-only referendum.

This became an issue when the next Conservative Prime Minister, Theresa May – still acting under the auspices of the 2015 manifesto – tried to treat the EU referendum as if it had made a legally binding decision.

Consequently, Parliament was not given an opportunity to have a specific debate and vote to decide whether to accept the ‘advice’ of the referendum for the UK to leave the EU.

The then Brexit Secretary, David Davis, erroneously advised Parliament that such a Parliamentary decision wasn’t necessary, as ‘the decision’ to leave had already been taken by the referendum. [Source]

Even though the Supreme Court had already ruled that the referendum was not capable of making any ‘decision’.

 WHEN IN 2017, Conservative Prime Minister, Theresa May, promised to deliver Brexit, it’s a moot point as to whether ‘the people’ had given her a mandate to do so, as in the 2017 general election, the Tories lost their majority entirely.

The Conservative manifesto for that election promised:

‘The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.’

The manifesto also pledged:

‘a deep and special partnership with the European Union.’

In that manifesto there was no mandate sought for Britain to leave the EU without a deal, let alone to suffer a ‘disorderly’ Brexit.

It meant that the next Tory Prime Minister, Boris Johnson – whilst still under the auspices of the 2017 manifesto – had no authority from ‘the people’ to state that Britain would leave the EU, ‘do or die, deal or no deal’.

 WHEN IN 2019, Conservative Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, promised to get Brexit done, ‘the people’ had given him a mandate to do so in the general election of that year.

The Conservative manifesto of that election promised on Brexit:

‘a great new deal that is ready to go’.

In that manifesto there was no mandate sought for Britain to leave the EU without a deal.

The ‘great new deal’ – which was passed by Parliament in January – included a political declaration promising close collaboration with the EU and a ‘level playing field’ to enable free and fair trade between the UK and the EU.

Boris Johnson personally signed the agreement.

But now the government has retracted on that deal.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said last month:

“In all areas, the UK continues to backtrack on the commitments it has undertaken in the political declaration.”

The UK is now rapidly heading towards a no-deal Brexit – an outcome for which there is no mandate from the British electorate.

 WHAT NEXT?

The next general election is to be held on 2 May 2024.

That is the next scheduled democratic event when the Brexit decision could be legitimately challenged, changed, or even overturned by a vote of ‘the people’.

Could a general election reverse Brexit, or at least forge a closer relationship with the EU than the one now being instigated by the Tory government?

Yes, of course.

In less than four years, the course of Brexit could be turned on its head if a political party wins power with a manifesto pledge to do just that.

 Photo: Conservative Prime Minister Edward Heath, on the steps of 10 Downing Street, after winning the 1970 general election.

• What happened to Boris Johnson’s ‘oven-ready’ deal? 2-minute video

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Polish Presidential run-off will take place on the 12 of July, that is tomorrow,  between the incumbent President Andrzej Duda, who won the first round of the presidential election on the 28  of June, and Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who is the Civic Platform (PO) candidate, finishing second. 

The question is what will be the future of Rule of Law in Poland in light of who gets elected on Sunday’s election.

The current state of Rule of Law in Poland under the Law and Justice Party’s ruling since 2015 is far from offering any hope for the future. The current government through series of measures and legislation has undermined and eroded the Rule of Law in Poland.

V-Dem Democracy Report of 2020 refers to Poland as having autocratised the most over the last ten years among other countries like Hungary and Turkey. The ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), in power since 2015, is forcing legislation that is not complying with the EU’s Rule of Standards, and ultimately is eroding democratic standards in Poland. On the question of whether it has a independent Judiciary,  Poland scored  1 on the scale of 4 in Freedom House’s annual report of 2020, which is pretty dismal.

In 2017 the Justice Minister was given the power to appoint and dismiss presidents and deputy presidents of courts, instead of them being elected by the Judiciary. Furthermore, lower retirement ages for the Supreme Court came into force, effectively meaning that 27 out of 73 judges had to step down in July 2018.  

Other parts of the new Supreme Court law created powerful new chambers—the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs (responsible for declaring the validity of elections), and the Disciplinary Chamber.   

Furthermore, in 2019, the Supreme Court’s Labor Chamber promptly ruled that the National Council of the Judiciary is not an impartial and independent body, and the Disciplinary Chamber is not a court within the meaning of EU and national law. In response, the PiS rushed legislation through the Sejm, the lower house of the bicameral parliament of Poland, to strengthen and expand disciplinary measures to punish individual judges who questioned the validity of the National Council of the Judiciary.  

In academic circles, as well as at the EU institutional level and among policy analysts, the situation in Poland concerning the independence of Judiciary and other policy choices made by the PiS related to the media and academia, which are not in the remit of this blog, is alarming. ‘Backsliding on democracy’, ‘drift towards illiberal democracy’, and ‘rule of law crisis’ are some of the adjectives used to describe the situation in Poland. 

My first question is if Trzaskowski wins the run-off on Sunday,  can he stop PiS in eroding the independence of Judiciary in Poland?

The short answer is:  Yes. 

The supporting conditions and constitutional powers granted to the President of the Republic of Poland could make Trzaskowski’s significantly strong and effective in ste

Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is supported by Civic Platform, a liberal right-of-centre party © Omar Marques/Getty

ering Poland to an opposite direction. To one where fundamental principles of Liberal Democracy are respected and protected, like the Rule of Law.

The paragraphs 3-5 of the Article 122 of the Constitution of Republic of Poland stated: (3)The President of the Republic may, before signing a bill, refer it to the Constitutional Tribunal for an adjudication upon its conformity to the Constitution. The President of the Republic shall not refuse to sign a bill which has been judged by the Constitutional Tribunal as conforming to the Constitution. (4) The President of the Republic shall refuse to sign a bill which the Constitutional Tribunal has judged not to be in conformity to the Constitution. (5)  If the President of the Republic has not made reference to the Constitutional Tribunal in accordance with para. 3, he may refer the bill, with reasons given, to the Sejm for its reconsideration. If the said bill is repassed by the Sejm by a three-fifths majority vote in the presence of at least half of the statutory number of Deputies” .                  

The above  means that when Trzaskowski receives a bill from the Sejm, he has the power, granted by the Constitution, as shown above, to refer the bill to the Constitutional Court to check it is in conformity with the Constitution. Additionally, because the PiS government does not hold a majority of 3/5 in the Sejm, the President’s veto of the Government’s bills could not be overturned. Thus Trzaskowski could block the PiS’s bills that are not in conformity with the Constitution, as well as those against his liberal values. Ultimately he could protect the fundamental values of liberal democracy; with this assured, optimism about the Rule of Law could be reinstated in Poland.

However, Trzaskowski’s vetoes of the PiS’s bills or legislative initiatives could force Jarosław Aleksander Kaczyński’s hand, Chairman of the PiS, country’s de facto ruler, to call for an early General Election. Dr. Ben Stanley, a political scientist at SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw, said that Kaczyński would have little patience for Trzaskowski’s vetoes and predicts escalation of hostilities between Trzaskowski and Kaczyński, if the former is elected on Sunday. By this, a brake on backsliding on Liberal democracy would be achieved. However, conflict, hostility and disunity between the President and the Government would take root in the Polish politics that could produce a dysfunctional government.Â

My second question is if Duda wins, will he stand against the PiS’s policy initiative that is not compliance with the Rule of Law standards of the EU?

My short answer is: No.

Andrzej Duda, incumbent PiS President and seeking re-election © Wojciech Olkusnik/EPA-EFE

If Duda is elected on Sunday, I think the PiS’s administration will first take a deep breath since the neck and neck race between Duda and Trzaskowski made them extremely nervous in that they run a smear campaign against their opponent, something academics will write about for a long time coming.

While one would expect the PiS to moderate their policy plans so that they could accommodate the rest of the country in their ranks, I do not anticipate that to happen. Not only because I feel the sense of deja vu when I am questioning if the PiS would moderate, but because of my expertise in Turkish and Hungarian politics, countries that are not regarded as democracies by the Freedom House anymore. I feel that the PiS would only impose its illiberal legislation proposals on the Poles in many areas of life in the coming 3-5 years to enhance their grip on power, which inevitably result in weaker democracy and the Rule of Law.

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Brexit is based on blatant mistruths and lies. You may not believe this now, but we will all believe it next year, when Brexit finally arrives, cold, clammy and callous, naked and exposed.

Every reason given to leave was a stinking falsification. When, one day, there is a public inquiry into how our country was conned, there will be gasps into how conniving, cunning politicians managed to get away with it.

Lies, lies and more lies. That’s how Leave won.

In summary:

 MORE SOVEREIGNTY? Nonsense. We’ll get less. In the EU, we gained a share of sovereignty of our continent. Outside the EU, we’ll still live on a planet and have to obey thousands of international laws and treaties.

We share sovereignty with NATO, for example. Is that a reason to leave it?

 FEWER MIGRANTS? Really? Just think about it. Most EU migrants in Britain have been in gainful employment, doing jobs that we simply don’t have enough Britons to do, and making a massive NET contribution to our Treasury and economy.

Migrants come here for jobs – and if there are no jobs, they mostly don’t come, or don’t stay.

 MORE HOUSES, SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS? Think again. Britain has a chronic shortage of skilled workers. Without EU migrants, we’ll have fewer builders, teachers, doctors and nurses.

Migrants are not the cause of our problems. Blaming them just excuses successive UK governments from investing sufficiently in our country.

 GET OUR COUNTRY BACK? We never lost it. If being in the EU means losing your country, why aren’t the 27 other EU member states planning to leave?

(Really, none of them are: support for the EU is the highest it’s been in 35 years).

 OUR OWN LAWS? The vast majority of laws in the UK are our laws and passed by our Parliament in Westminster, otherwise it would have nothing to do.

But in the EU, we benefit from laws and regulations for our continent that no single country alone could ever achieve.

Could our UK government have got mobile phone companies to scrap exorbitant roaming charges across the entire EU? To take Google to task for “abusive practices”? To ensure generous compensation for delayed flights across our continent? Of course not.

It took the might of 28 EU countries working together to achieve that, and so much more.

 THE EU IS RUN BY FACELESS BUREAUCRATS? Another lie. The EU is a democracy, run and ruled by its members, the 27 countries of the EU, along with its democratically elected European Parliament.

The European Commission is the servant of the EU, not its master, and the European Parliament has the power to choose, and dismiss, the entire Commission.

THE CASE FOR BRETURN Before Brexit, no member state had ever left the EU. And no other member state is planning to leave now.

That’s hardly surprising. All the reasons to be an EU member are based on true, tangible and tested benefits over many decades.

In summary:

 PROFITABLE: EU membership is profitable – in real terms it cost Britain nothing to belong to the EU. On the contrary, we got back many times the cost of the annual membership fee. Being in the EU made us better off.

The CBI has calculated that EU membership was worth around £3,000 a year to every British family — a return of nearly £10 for each £1 we paid in.

[Source: CBI Report: Our Global Future, page 11:]

 PEACE: It’s the structure of the EU that has helped to ensure that no shots have ever been fired between member states. That’s an enormous achievement for a continent that was previously used to violence, wars and subjugation as the way to ‘settle’ issues.

In 2012, by a unanimous decision of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, the EU won the Nobel Peace Prize for advancing the causes of peace, democracy and human rights in Europe for over 60 years.

 FREEDOMS: The EU gives members freedom across much of our continent.

EU citizens enjoy the right to live, work, study or retire in any EU and EEA country – including access to state healthcare and education when working in those countries. That’s a precious right, that took decades to achieve.

The EU also gives members the right to free AND frictionless trade between member states, which has helped to maintain Europe as the planet’s richest continent.

The loss of these freedoms will be increasingly devastating for Britain and Britons.

Almost half of ALL our exports, and just over half of ALL our imports, go to and come from the EU. Nowhere else in the world comes even close.

The EU has an iron tariff wall against non-members. Outside of the EU, we are on the wrong side of that wall.

Even non-European countries that have negotiated ‘free trade’ agreements with the EU don’t enjoy full free trade access to Europe’s internal market, as Britain did as an EU member.

DEMOCRACY: EU members have a democratic say, votes and vetoes on the running and future direction of our continent.

Outside the EU, Britain can only look on as those decisions are made without us – even though those decisions will affect us just as much, whether we’re in the EU or not.

Leaving means losing sovereignty, not gaining it.

 POWER: The EU is the world’s largest and most successful trading bloc, and the world’s biggest exporter and importer of manufactured goods and services.

The EU is one of the world’s top three economies, alongside the USA and China.

The Euro, in record time, has become the world’s most traded and trusted currency, alongside the US dollar.

All that gives the EU huge power, reach and muscle – enabling it to negotiate the best free trade agreements with other countries on behalf of its members.

Outside the EU, Britain is unlikely to get trade deals as good as, let alone better than, the free trade agreements we had as an EU member covering over 70 countries.

In any event, it will take years, maybe decades to find out.

 PROTECTION: EU laws protecting the rights of workers, consumers and travellers across our continent are probably among the most important EU membership benefits.

For example, 4-weeks paid holiday a year; the 48-hour working week; anti-discrimination law; guaranteed rights for agency workers; guaranteed worker consultation – all of these protections largely exist because of the EU.

No single national government can assure safety and protection across our continent. It needs the reach of a pan-European intergovernmental organisation to achieve that (albeit with the democratic consensus of member states).

Britain enjoys cleaner beaches as a direct result of EU directives on protecting the environment. Before those directives, successive British governments were not interested in cleaning up our beaches.

In addition, the EU is leading the world in tackling climate change – something that individual countries alone simply can’t undertake.

The government’s post-Brexit plan is to take away the rights of British citizens to sue them over issues such as workers’ rights, environmental policy and business regulation. This right to sue our government on these issues was something we only enjoyed under EU law.

There will be many other rights lost as a direct result of Brexit.

 STRENGTH: In a world dominated by the USA, China and Russia, Britain is dwarfed on its own. Being part of the EU gives us a bigger say and more strength on the global stage than as a small country out-at-sea and going-it-alone.

We could instead become closer to the USA – but is that what we really want?

……………………………………………..

When Brexit arrives for real, from 1 January 2021 onwards, we will be poorer, and with less sovereignty, fewer rights and protections, restricted trade, and diminished power.

The case for Breturn – Britain returning to the EU as a full member – is overwhelming.

It may take years to achieve a democratic reversal of Brexit, but it’s a worthwhile fight.

In a democracy, losing doesn’t mean having to give up. Ask Brexiters, they know.

We can win next time. We just have to ensure we get a next time.

 

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• My campaign page on Facebook: Reasons2Rejoin
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The post Breturn versus Brexit appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

Scary

I was very glad to have attended the EPOW seminar series this week, where one of my longer-standing thoughts about Brexit finally got some more robust grounding than the impressionistic approach I’ve taken to date. Sara Hobolt was presenting her co-authored paper on the impact of attitudes towards Brexit on attitudes towards your own country’s membership of the EU, using the EES in May 2019 to conduct an EU28-wide experimental design. You can watch Sara’s excellent presentation on the link, but essentially if you think Brexit is bad for the UK, then you’ll think your country leaving the EU will also be bad, especially if your country is economically more exposed to the UK. But the team went beyond this with this experimental arm, exposing sub-groups to positive or negative statements about Brexit, to see if that had any effect. Here, the negative messaging – on economic costs – didn’t have a significant impact on attitudes, but the positive messaging – on taking control over laws, including migration – did have a measurable effect, making people more likely to consider that their country would do well from leaving the EU and to vote to Leave in a referendum. The argument for this differential was that respondents have likely been desensitised to negative messages on Brexit – remember that May 2019 was after the second extension of Art.50 and the middle of the ratification arguments in the UK – so only the positive messages would have been novel and surprising. Thus, even if Brexit has been a deterrent so far to further withdrawals, the scope for that to change in the future is clear. And it’s here that Sara’s evidence seems to give substance to the argument I’ve been making about the ‘ice-breaking‘ nature of Brexit. The simple fact of the UK’s withdrawal has opened up a new political potentiality for others to exploit: leaving the EU is no longer a theoretical possibility, but a political reality. And the generally negative framing of that process in other EU member states – by media, by politicians, by publics – leaves open a strong possibility of that potentiality being exploited by eurosceptic and anti-EU political actors. As we know from the UK, the relative unwillingness of political elites to communicate why the balance of costs and benefits tips towards membership doesn’t mean that it’s not an issue, but rather than critical voices tend to make the running in the public debate. To use Hooghe and Marks’ phrase, the constraining dissensus that characterises the past couple of decades of European integration tends to lead to a more defensive positioning by elites, reacting rather than agenda-setting. And so we might expect that in the next phase of Brexit, as the UK moves out of transition, the potential for sceptics to sell a new message about the process to publics across Europe will grow. Even in the most pessimistic economic analyses, the UK will not collapse as an economy or as a state (pace Peter Foster’s thread yesterday on Scotland and the UK internal market). Thrown in the considerable disruption that everyone will experience from Covid, plus all the non-economic dimensions and it’s not that difficult to fashion a narrative that the UK has benefited from leaving. That would serve domestic agendas of eurosceptics in other countries, especially if the EU’s response to Covid is the seeming imposition of more obligations – financial or political – on member states or the weakening of benefits – reduced structural funds, less free movement, etc. If publics are more susceptible to positive messaging, as Sara’s work suggests, then that opens the possibility of a similar outmanoeuvring of elites as too place in the UK in the run-up to the referendum: benign neglect and a belief in the weight of the status quo isn’t a robust basis for those who wish to maintain the system. Marlene Wind makes a similar case in her recent book, arguing that there has to be a much more pro-active promotion of the liberal and democratic values that European integration claims to protect. Whether governments and parties actually follow through with that agenda is rather more in question than you might expect.

The post From deterrent to contagion: Brexit as a cautionary tale? appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

The referendum question was unbalanced because it pitched a known outcome with an entirely unknown outcome.

The referendum question asked if the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

 REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION □

 LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION □

We all knew what remaining in the EU meant; we’d had it for over 40 years.

But nobody knew what leaving the EU would mean. It wasn’t defined or explained in the referendum.

Even leading Brexiters couldn’t agree with each other. We still don’t know.

We may as well have had a referendum with the question:

 DO YOU WANT TO STAY WHERE YOU ARE? □

 DO YOU WANT TO GO SOMEWHERE ELSE? □

If you ticked to ‘stay where you are’, you knew what you’d be getting.

But if you ticked to ‘go somewhere else’, you’d have no idea where you’d be going.

If you voted to go somewhere else, wouldn’t you then expect another vote on where precisely you’d be going?

That would make logical sense, wouldn’t it?

But no. That’s not what’s happened.

Slightly more people ticked the box to ‘go somewhere else’, but the government has refused to give us any say on where we’re going.

The government is making the decision, without any referral back to us.

What if we don’t like where we’re going? Too bad.

Some years before the referendum, arch Tory Brexiter MP, Jacob Rees-Mogg explained that it was important to:

“work out how to phrase a referendum – or a series of referendums if necessary – that will be understandable.”

Well, the referendum phrase was NOT understandable.

How could a referendum be understood when one of the options had not been explained?

Mr Rees-Mogg also said then that we could have two referendums. He told Parliament in 2012:

“As it happens, it may be more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.”

Yes, that would make sense.

It would mean that we could then have a more balanced, second referendum; one that compared, for the first time, a fully defined Leave with the already-known status quo of Remain.

But it wasn’t to be. Mr Rees-Mogg has now disowned what he said in 2011.

Despite the pre-election promises by Boris Johnson of an ‘oven-ready deal’, we are now heading towards a no-deal, cliff-edge Brexit, even though nobody voted for that.

Indeed, polls consistently show that Britain most definitely does NOT want a no-deal Brexit.

Tough. We are not being given any choice.

Back in the day, before the referendum campaign, when the then Conservative government was pro-Remain, they presented the three main Brexit alternatives.

[Link: BrexitVersions.Reasons2Rejoin.co.uk]

All of them, said David Cameron’s government, would cause damage to Britain. If you’re a Brexiter, which one did you vote for?

① THE NORWAY OPTION – meaning Britain would leave the EU but still have free and frictionless access to the EU Single Market, by far Britain’s most important and lucrative export and import market.

But this option would mean Britain continuing to pay the EU and obey its rules – including free movement of people – without any say in them.

② THE CANADA OPTION – meaning Britain would have tariff free trade with the EU, but not the highly cherished and valuable frictionless trade.

And there would only be limited access for our services sector, which makes up almost 80% of our economy.

③ THE WTO OPTION – (often referred to as ‘no-deal’ and now ridiculously described by Boris Johnson as the ‘Australia Deal’) meaning relying on World Trade Organisation rules.

But that would mean new tariffs and complicated, costly procedures on UK trade with the EU, hurting British consumers, businesses and employment. It would also suddenly and catastrophically end all EU membership benefits, affecting all our daily lives.

 NONE OF THESE OPTIONS were presented as choices in the referendum that voters could opt for. The only choice was for Remain, or a meaningless and undefined Leave.

The Leave campaign would have struggled to win if they’d had to specifically define the version of Leave they were selling.

 WHICH IS WHY the Leave win was such a con.

It was much easier to sell to the nation a vague and idealistic idea of Brexit, rather than the realistic, down-to-earth details.

The only way to find out what ‘the people’ now want is to have a new referendum comparing the new-deal Boris Johnson negotiates with the EU, with the option of being an EU member.

The government won’t offer that choice because they are not really interested in what ‘the people’ want. They only want what they want.

• Watch this 25-second video of what Jacob Rees-Mogg said about referendums:

• Follow my journalism page on Facebook: Jon Danzig writes
• And LinkedIn

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The post Which version of Brexit did Britain vote for? appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

This article was first published on The UK in a Changing Europe.

The negotiations between the UK government and the European Union make it
quite clear that neither Boris Johnson nor Michel Barnier would buy a used car
from the other on trust.

That’s not because they differ about whether the driver’s wheel should be on the
right or the left. It is because there is mutual distrust, albeit for different reasons.
The Prime Minister doesn’t want the guarantee that Barnier is offering for
enforcing any agreement about the UK’s future trade relations that they must
meet an autumn deadline in order to avoid having no deal. This is because the
EU would like any guarantee with the UK to be settled by EU law.

Barnier wants an enforceable guarantee because he does not trust Boris
Johnson to keep his word. In order to get Brexit done, Johnson signed a
Withdrawal Agreement that promised a significant customs barrier between
Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

This lost him the trust of the Democratic Unionist Party. To assuage their
concerns, Johnson has since said the new policy would be enforced with a light
touch, and this lost him the trust of Barnier.

The normal thing to do when buying a used car is to ask the salesperson if there
is a guarantee if its condition is not as promised. No guarantee means no deal.
By contrast, the normal thing in reaching a political agreement with a group of
countries is to treat their commitments with a light touch, because there is no
guarantee that the terms can be enforced.

The agreement that the UK and EU teams are currently negotiating is intended
to cover a substantial number of commitments. These could include the rights of EU and British citizens living in each other’s jurisdiction, tariffs, state aid, competition and the protection of workers’ rights and the environment.

As with any set of regulations, especially when they are stated in both French
and English, issues can be expected to arise about how each partner
implements the agreement.

The potential for disagreement is high, because the purpose of Brexit, as far as
Downing Street is concerned, is to allow the UK to depart from EU policies and
rules.

In discussions with the EU, British negotiators say new standards will be as high
or higher than EU standards.

In discussions with Conservative MPs, the emphasis is on Britain differing from
EU regulations in ways that give it a competitive advantage.

How British standards affecting trade will differ from the EU in practice is
unclear, because the UK government has yet to spell them out.

This is not so much a Machiavellian strategy of hiding a well-prepared plan of
action, as it is a sign of the UK government not yet having decided what specific
measures will be changed to give substance to the Brexit rhetoric of ‘taking back
control.’

To Europeans who believe in a social market rather than in an unregulated free
market this signals that the UK might engage in social dumping, seeking to
boost exports by adopting lower standards than its EU competitors.

Before buying an agreement with a Prime Minister with a used-car salesman’s
reputation, Michel Barnier wants a guarantee that can be enforced. What he doesn’t want is what is implicit in the rhetoric of British negotiators: enforcement
provisions that the UK can slip out of.

The starting point for enforcement puts the two sides in a position of political
distancing. The EU would like enforcement by the ECJ whereas the UK
government veto this as inconsistent with regaining sovereignty.

Consultation is accepted in principle by both sides. This can reveal whether a
complaint is due to a misunderstanding that can be resolved by discussion or
whether there is a substantive disagreement about what obligations their political
agreement imposes.

There is recognition in principle of the need for arbitration when disagreements
arise about the rules governing future UK-EU resolutions.
Since neither Britain nor the EU is willing to let the other’s courts having the final
say, a special arbitration tribunal will be required to which each side can
nominate one judge and they can agree a tie-breaking third judge.

The first point of disagreement is about the scope of arbitration: the EU wants it
to cover all points in a single general-purpose agreement, while the UK wants it
to leave some matters free of binding arbitration.

The disagreement could be resolved by narrowing the scope of the agreement
by dropping those issues that the UK government wants to leave free of binding
arbitration. Narrowing would be welcomed by hardcore Brexiters and
acceptable to the EU because, by default, all the remaining topics would be
subject to arbitration.

The biggest dispute is about what rules an arbitration panel should follow. The
EU does not want any terms of the agreement to be dismissed as non-binding if
they contradict a hastily adopted Act of Parliament. It wants the arbitration panel
to refer to the interpretation of disputes to the ECJ.

While this is logical from a Brussels perspective, the chief British negotiator,
David Frost, has stated that the superiority of EU to British laws would be
contrary to ‘the fundamentals of what it means to be an independent country’.
To maximize the enforcement of the agreement, EU negotiators are insistent
that if any arbitration finds any one condition violated, then the offended side can
unilaterally suspend the whole agreement.

The British position is that this would be disproportionate punishment. But that is
just the point. If the UK government showed it was untrustworthy, the EU would
be glad to be quit of further disputes by abruptly cancelling the UK’s favoured
access to EU markets and leaving Britain with no deal.

The effect would be relatively small for the EU. However, this would affect not
only British sellers of used and new cars but also all engaged in EU trade, from
the Conservative red-wall constituencies in the north of England to the City of
London.

By Richard Rose, Professor of Public Policy at the University of
Strathclyde. His newest book is: How Referendums Challenge European
Democracy: Brexit and Beyond.

The post Would you buy a used car from one of these men? appeared first on Ideas on Europe.