Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Das pakistanische Militär nutzt die Legitimitätskrise der Regierung, um seinen Einfluss auf Öffentlichkeit und Wirtschaft des Landes auszubauen. Die Unfähigkeit, die aktuelle Krise zu lösen, sowie das Unvermögen der zivilen Exekutivorgane, Gesetz und Ordnung durchzusetzen, schwächen die Position des Ministerpräsidenten Mian Nawaz Sharif zusehends.

Der Heilige Stuhl wirkt seit der zweiten Hälfte des 20. Jahrhunderts an zentralen weltpolitischen Entscheidungen und Ereignissen mit. Dabei greift er auf außenpolitische Netzwerke sowie auf nicht-klassische Machtressourcen zurück. Seit dem Amtsantritt von Papst Franziskus ist die internationale Bedeutung des Heiligen Stuhls gewachsen.

The Briefing Paper series “Financing Global Development” analyses key financial and non-financial means of implementation for the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and discusses the building blocks of a new framework for development finance.

Financing social service delivery is becoming more and more challenging. At the same time, private assets are increasingly seeking out investment opportunities. Some high-net-worth individuals and foundations are accepting lower returns as long as pressing societal objectives can be achieved. This presents an opportunity to mobilise more private capital for social investments. The so-called impact investors can play a promising role in financing social and environmental service delivery in G7 countries as well as in the developing world. Impact investing is intended to finance projects, organisations and social enterprises to intentionally create a measurable social or environmental impact alongside financial returns. One innovative instrument is the so-called social impact bond (SIB) – or, in the case of development cooperation, development impact bond (DIB) – through which private investors pre-finance the intervention, and governments or donors provide funding solely when the intended outcome goes beyond what would have occurred otherwise.
Advocates of impact investing see SIBs and DIBs as useful instruments for the financing of the 2030 agenda. However, they are still largely unproven; even though some promising interim evaluations exist, this innovative  
financing approach faces a number of challenges. Besides questionable or outstanding evaluations, the most important challenges are: limited transferability, the nascent development of the market, high transaction costs and the hurdles for investors. Nevertheless, given the urgency to mobilise finance for sustainable development in developed and developing countries, it is worth considering and prudently developing impact bonds further, and more generally impact investing. Supporting them would entail:

• Data- and information-sharing have to be furthered by the impact investing community in order to critically evaluate first experiences of pilot SIBs and DIBs, provide recommendations and enable basic education for entrepreneurs and investors.
• Further research should be encouraged to get a better understanding of how to create additional impact and to deploy different instruments in the development context as well as to offer exit opportunities for private investors.
• Policy-makers should support the development of clearer definitions and a common impact-measurement system as well as standardised and mandatory reporting requirements to ensure effectiveness and quality.
• Development finance institutions should become more active in the market by providing resources to encourage the implementation of SIBs and DIBs. Governments and/or donors need experienced partners who provide catalytic capital for first initiatives and serve as intermediaries.

President of ELIAMEP, Professor Loukas Tsoukalis will participate in a conferece to be organised in Rome on 13-14 November 2015 for the 50th Anniversary of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). He will speak in the first session on ‘Governing Europe: the Challenges of Differentiated Integration’. The programme of the event is available here.

Mitigating climate change and limiting global warming to no more than 2°C require a fast and radical transformation of politics, the economy and society. Worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases need to fall to zero by 2100. Action needs to be even faster in the case of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is primarily released in the burning of fossil fuels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global CO2 emissions need to reach zero by 2070 at the latest. In other words, the global economy needs to be completely "decarbonised" by then. The sustainable development goals (SDGs) of Agenda 2030 underscore the significance of this task.
The decarbonisation of our economic activity is dependent not only on the international climate regime, but also the regulatory framework for the world economy, i.e. global economic governance.
In addition to progress made in the context of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the fundamental acknowledgment of all states of the need to tackle climate change in the scope of Agenda 2030 there are currently numerous initiatives that give cause for optimism – not least the commitment of the G7 states to the decarbonisation of the global economy and manifold climate actions of actors such as cities, churches and companies.
However, further reaching reforms of global economic framework conditions are necessary if a fundamental transformation is to be achieved. We therefore propose 3x3 starting points: 3 areas of action, each with 3 key aspects.    Of particular importance for the decarbonisation of the global economy are (A) adequate pricing, (B) a suitable body of regulations for international trade and investment and (C) the appropriate configuration of the financial markets. (A)    To achieve correct pricing it is necessary to (i) introduce a global carbon price, (ii) continue to remove subsidies for fossil fuels, and (iii) extend the system of payments for ecosystem services. (B)    A suitable regulatory framework for international trade and investment includes (i) climate-friendly multilateral trade rules under the aegis of the World Trade Organization (WTO), (ii) the promotion of plurilateral agreements for the liberalisation of environmental goods and services and (iii) increased focus on the right to regulate in terms of environmental aspects in bilateral and regional trade and investment agreements. (C)    In addition to the establishment of global funds such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the area of global financial governance has three starting points in particular: (i) regulation of financial markets, (ii) green guidelines for investment decisions and (iii) guarantee instruments for green investments. For all reform measures there is a need to identify potential win-win constellations that offer co-benefits to as many participants as possible. In addition, attention should also be paid to trade-offs and political economy. This includes the question of which actors are in favour of the necessary measures, which resist them and why and how coalitions of change can be formed and reinforced.

The trend for military putsches continued in 2015, with no end yet in sight. After the unsuccessful attempt in Burundi, the military in Burkina Faso once more seized power, albeit for a short duration. Putsches remain a widespread means of precipitating a change in government. Although the absolute global figure has decreased, Coups d'Etat remain particularly common in West Africa. Of 69 changes in government in the region between 1990 and 2014, 33 were elicited via elections and 18 via military putsches.
International actors usually react to military putsches with two standard responses. Firstly, they demand that the putschists cede power to a civilian government. The African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are just two organisations which have formally declared, in legally binding documents, that a junta regime may not remain in power and that the next government must be appointed via elections. Secondly, several states and organisations including the USA and the AU have decided to impose sanctions automatically.
This double response, consisting in the goal formulation of the swiftest possible transition to a civilian government and sanctions, creates a good basis for international actors to promote sustainable democratic structures. If democracy promotion is to be effective, however, three questions must be answered prior to any attempts in this area:

• What is the military's attitude towards democratic order? In the event that the putsch is an attempt to destabilise democratic order (as was recently the case in Burkina Faso), a hard-line policy against the putschists is appropriate. However, if the military is overthrowing an autocratic leadership, it may well prove a useful partner.
• What are the most pressing problems within the country's political system? International actors may be well advised to focus on military withdrawal in the event that a civilian government constitutes a sine qua non for democracy. However, this alone is not sufficient. Coups d'Etat are frequently an expression of deep-set structural problems. As a result, international actors should broaden their focus and address the root causes of the putsch. It may be expedient to combine steps towards reconciliation between political parties and security sector or judicial reforms with the demand for a civilian government.
• Which actions are appropriate in order to achieve these more broadly defined objectives? The suspension of cooperation may be a suitable means to penalise junta regimes. However, these measures should be complemented by other strategies. Restricting action to sanctions constricts scope for action unnecessarily. Military force, positive and negative, material and immaterial incentives as well as long-term persuasion efforts can, under specific conditions, complement traditional sanctions. The ultimate degree of success enjoyed by such measures depends heavily on the level of consensus reached by international actors and their legitimacy in the eyes of the addressees.

In a CEPS paper Dr Filippa Chatzistavrou and Ms Sofia Michalaki analyse the European dimension of the Greek crisis during the SYRIZA-Independent Greeks administration. Their paper entitled ‘Greece as an example of “post-politics” in the eurozone’ is available here.

Seizième édition de L’Opinion européenne, un ouvrage unique en son genre !
L’Europe est en proie à de profondes mutations structurelles et à une crise de son modèle économique, politique et social. Menacée, elle doit plus que jamais affronter la poussée des populismes et du scepticisme. Et pourtant, les jeunes générations portent encore l’espoir et l’avenir d’une Europe confiante et solide.

Cet article Dominique Reynié – L’Opinion européenne en 2015, disponible en librairie est apparu en premier sur Fondapol.

« La session internationale Asie / Moyen-Orient 2015 qui s’est déroulée à l’IHEDN, en collaboration avec la DCSD, du 3 au 10 novembre, a réuni un effectif de 33 auditeurs procédant de 19 pays : ...

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Entretien avec Pascal Boniface, directeur de l’IRIS, autour de l’impasse de la stratégie de déni du président égyptien Al-Sissi.

The Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy – ELIAMEP is seeking a researcher-IT expert for a 5-month position (February – June 2016). The job position is part of the Research Programme LOMIGRAS: “Mainstreaming and Monitoring Immigrants’ Integration in Local Government in Greece”, which is funded by the General Secretariat for Research and Technology of Greece through the European Economic Area Financial Mechanism (EEA Grants).

 Qualifications, Knowledge and Experience 

• Post-graduate degree (Ph.D or MA) in computer sciences or statistics.
• Ability to use and apply social research data through the creation of relevant technological instruments
• Proven experience in the development of web-based applications.
• Proven experience in the analysis of quantitative data.
• Excellent written and oral communications skills in English and Greek.

Main duties

• Develop indicators and monitoring tool for assessing immigrant integration at the local level.
• Analysis of secondary quantitative data.
• Develop of web-based application on monitoring and assessment tool (MAT).
• Conduct pilot-testing of the web-based application of the MAT in the Municipality of Athens.
• Contribute to the report on a set of policy recommendations regarding the assessment of local integration tools and strategies at local, national and European levels.
• Programme’s website design and management
• Contribute to the organisation of three workshops in Athens and Thessaloniki and the final conference in Athens.
• Contribute to networking and disseminating research results of LOMIGRAS.

Deadline for application: 25 November 2015

Please submit your application electronically including cover letter and CV with «MIGR_11b.15″ in subject line, to migration@eliamep.gr.

The Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy – ELIAMEP will recruit a research fellow for a 5-month position (December 2016 – April 2016).

The job position is part of the Research Programme LOMIGRAS: “Mainstreaming and Monitoring Immigrants’ Integration in Local Government in Greece”, which is funded by the General Secretariat for Research and Technology of Greece through the European Economic Area Financial Mechanism (EEA Grants).

 Qualifications, Knowledge and Experience 

• Pοst-graduate degree (M.A. or Ph.D) in political or social sciences.
• Previous experience in management and coordination of research projects.
• Proven experience with empirical research on migration.
• Proven experience and record of publications in the field of migrant integration in Greece and in Europe.
• Experience in organising workshops, networking and disseminating research results.
• Excellent IT skills and use of multimedia.
• Excellent written and oral communications skills in English and Greek.

Main duties

• Assist to the project’s principal investigator with the management and coordination of the LOMIGRAS research project.
• Conduct interviews with key informants in various municipalities in Greece.
• Engage in the analysis of qualitative data of empirical research by municipality.
• Co-authoring reports on integration of migrants in local government.
• Involvement in the organisation of two workshops in Athens and Thessaloniki and the final conference in Athens.
• Contribute to networking and to the dissemination of research results of LOMIGRAS.

Deadline for application: 25 November 2015

Please submit your application electronically including cover letter and CV with «MIGR_11d.15″ in subject line, to migration@eliamep.gr.

On November 9th, IPI hosted a Distinguished Author Series featuring Steven Lee Myers, author of The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin.

Click here to view the event video on YouTube>>

The New Tsar is a highly readable and deeply researched narrative about the ambitious and determined onetime Russian spy who, emerging from a grim childhood of poverty in Leningrad, rose through the ranks of the KGB and post-communist political disorder in Moscow to consolidate tsar-like personal rule and become a consequential, unpredictable, and destabilizing world leader. He has ushered in a new authoritarianism, quashing dissent, repressing inchoate revolts, defying Western rivals, and all the while building widespread support at home for his mission of restoring assertive Russian power and influence in places ranging from Ukraine to Syria. Praising the book for revealing “why Putin acts the way he does”, Robert D. Kaplan, author of In Europe’s Shadow, says, “Personalities determine history as much as geography, and there is no personality who has had such a pivotal effect on 21st century Europe as Vladimir Putin.”

The event was moderated by IPI Senior Adviser for External Relations Warren Hoge.

François Hollande a inauguré le nouveau siège du ministère de la défense à Balard, surnommé le « Pentagone à la française ». Que cela va-t-il changer dans la politique de défense et la gestion des armées ?
En termes de politique de défense et de gestion des armées, cela ne doit normalement pas changer grand-chose. Cependant, deux aspects sont attendus. Premièrement, il s’agit de réaliser des économies. On se souvient qu’il y a eu des interrogations et des débats relatifs à ce contrat sous forme de partenariat public/privé et donc sur l’économie réelle pour le ministère de la Défense. Le regroupement du ministère de la Défense sur le site de Balard va lui permettre de revendre certaines emprises qui étaient au centre de Paris, et permettre des rentrées financières. Le second avantage attendu est de recentrer sur le même lieu tous les services centraux du ministère. En effet, avant l’inauguration du « Balardgone », les services étaient éclatés dans Paris et en région parisienne. Or ces services ont besoin de travailler ensemble. En termes d’efficacité, on doit attendre une bien meilleure intégration de la politique de défense concernant les décisions prises au niveau du ministère. Le grand intérêt est donc avant tout l’unité de lieu.

On assiste à une multiplication des interventions françaises sur des théâtres extérieurs, représentant un coût estimé à 1,128 milliards d’euros pour 2015. Pour autant, la France a-t-elle les moyens de ses ambitions ? Les armées françaises ne sont-elles pas en train de s’épuiser ?
Il y a effectivement un risque d’épuisement étant donné le nombre actuel d’opérations extérieures. François Hollande a été élu sur le retrait des troupes en Afghanistan, ce qui a été fait, et un budget d’opérations extérieures qui devait diminuer. Dans le budget de la défense, ces opérations extérieures sont provisionnées à hauteur de 450 millions d’euros, contre 650 millions auparavant. Au vu du coût estimé en 2015, il s’agit là d’un doublement voire d’un triplement. Ceci est lié à la menace terroriste qui justifie nos opérations au Mali, en Irak puis en Syrie. Si nous prenons l’exemple du Mali, nous avons réussi à stopper en 2013 l’avancée des différents groupes menaçant Bamako, donc à réduire leur menace. Toutefois, celle-ci s’est en partie reconstituée et il y a maintenant une liaison avec le sud de la Libye et l’implantation de Daech. La grande difficulté vient ainsi du fait que l’on soit seul sur le terrain ce qui nous oblige à durer dans le temps. Si on lutte militairement contre ces groupes, on ne peut pas être seul. Il est certain que l’on n’y arrivera pas s’il n’y a pas des coalitions qui se constituent au-delà des pays occidentaux. Ce sont aussi et avant tout des problèmes régionaux, notamment en Syrie, et c’est aux acteurs de la région de trouver une solution politique, même si les Occidentaux peuvent y apporter une aide.

L’Elysée vient par ailleurs d’annoncer le déploiement du porte-avions Charles-de-gaulle pour participer aux opérations contre Daech permettant de doubler le potentiel militaire français dans la région. A quels objectifs répond cette décision ?
Il y a un objectif militaire qui consiste à renforcer les forces de la coalition contre Daech. Cela étant, jusqu’alors, on ne peut pas dire que l’implication militaire française soit significative ou décisive. La question est d’ailleurs de savoir s’il y a besoin d’une implication militaire française face à Daech en Syrie. En réalité, le principal objectif est avant tout politique : celui de nous réintroduire dans la négociation afin de trouver une solution politique en Syrie. Autour de la table des négociations lors de la première réunion à Genève il y avait les Américains, les Russes, les Turcs, les Saoudiens, et les Européens étaient absents. Le porte-avions est donc avant tout déployé afin de consolider notre position diplomatique, davantage que pour un véritable résultat militaire.

You can read here the article analysing  Νew Democracy’s leadership race which was written by Professor George Pagoulatos. The commentary was published on 8 November 2015 in the Sunday edition of Kathimerini and is available in Greek.