This is the Friday edition of our Brussels Briefing. To receive it every morning in your email in-box, sign up here.
Cypriot finance minister Harris Georgiades, left, with eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem
And then there was one. If all goes according to plan, eurozone finance ministers will bid a fond farewell to the Cypriot bailout on Monday, making the island nation the fourth of the five countries that were forced into a rescue programme at the height of the crisis to exit. Only Greece remains.
In many respects, the Cypriots have been model bailout students. Nicosia only spent about €7.5bn of the €10bn originally allocated in the programme, and its economy returned to growth last year, a full year earlier than the bailout’s architects anticipated. Indeed, it has out-performed on almost every major economic indicator: its debt levels are lower than originally forecast, its projected budget deficit isn’t a deficit, and its current account is almost in balance.
Still, not everything is so rosy. Most importantly, the bailout will end without the Cypriot government completing all the reform tasks it was supposed to – the privatisation of the state telecommunications operator proved too politically radioactive so close to parliamentary elections, so won’t be done in time. As a result, Monday’s eurogroup meeting will be a farewell, but not a formal closure of the programme. That will happen at the end of the month when the three-year rescue just expires.
Read moreBritain belongs with the European Union, despite their differences.
The European Union is a crucial part of the fabrics that make up Great Britain. Although, it is nowadays one of the most important talking points in British politics, for a very long time, the European Union had not occupied the consciousness of many British people. As times keep changing the picture of British politics, factors such as the eurozone crisis happening in fellow European countries, has not managed to alter the perspective that if the British are faced with a sudden in-out referendum, then they are going to overwhelmingly steer clear from the thought of Britain exiting the European Union.
David Cameron started playing a risky game in politics the moment he decided to launch a referendum for Britain’s status within the European Union. His basket of thoughts on complex issues such as sovereignty and migration has called for an upheaval of the European Union simply to push in a limited set of reforms that could have been done without, like his avoidance of addressing his own instigated referendum, for a noticeable period of time. This pieced-together decision of numerous heads of governments is singularly suggestive of the referendum scheduled for June 23 to be an aimless, unclear, harmful, senseless and odd piece of political work.
People who are for a Brexit have no clue about what are the positives of leaving the European Union and the British are far too conservative to entertain the idea that their own sovereign state will ever be acting independently from the European Union. Great Britain had signed the Maastricht Treaty, with its fellow European countries in 1992 that had officially proclaimed the European Union into reality, so the public have never really been denied the chance to express their opinion with freedom about the Union. This legally binding referendum should, therefore be looked upon as an opportunity instead to let the British permanently become a part of the European Union with the help of international law. The deal should be more authoritative and not be subjected to the decisions of the heads of governments of all of the member states, at any point in time.
The Eurozone crisis is posing as a major problem for the British perspective on the European Union.
If there is any dissatisfaction involved with Britain’s position in the European Union, then it should be reserved for certain proposed amendments instead, which the 1969 Vienna convention already permits. Let’s not beat around the bush: Euroscepticism is a major driver of political ideologies for all British parties and they have very rarely been able to address concerns over European integration. Geographically, Britain is detached from Europe as an island country and has had a victorious record at the Second World War. The foundations of British thought were laid with those ideas in mind and factors, such as pride, a love for democracy, liberty and independence, made Britain what it is today: individualistic.
Britain never thought it necessary to cooperate with fellow European powers for the common good because it also had the Commonwealth (and a positive relationship with the United States) to ponder about. Furthermore, Britain still runs on the Anglo-Saxon model of less regulation and more capitalism inclusive of national social welfare, unlike European states who like to put their faith in state interference. Meanwhile, the eurozone crisis sounds alarming to Euroscepticism here because now whilst doing common good to Europe, states are also being asked to pitch in and support weaker states, through national wealth redistribution. This crisis is denting the idea of Europe for the British, coupled up with fluctuating levels of British interest in the EU, when you want to talk about the nation’s history. During the early eighties, most British people were not concerned with the thought of Europe and in the nineties, many members of the general public quizzed the European agenda for Britain.
The European Union influences policy in Great Britain but there is this likelihood that the British public will want different sets of opinions guiding all of that for the many different policy divisions, such as for foreign policy and social policy. But the European Union does not need to dictate British national policy if it doesn’t want to because subjects such as the labour market, education and employment can be led with a different British point of view, than the kind that would perhaps guide a more European policy framework. It is also important to note that since post-2011 (and specifically when the Masstricht Treaty was signed) the popularity index for Britain’s position inside of the European Union peaked. This means that despite the differences in attitudes and thinking over Europe, the British are still deeply interested in Britain remaining a part of the European Union.
The post The Brexit Debate appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
With Europeans agonising over the British EU referendum, or appalled by the US primary spectacle, there has now been a poll to bring some good news: Iranian citizens have largely backed the government led by the moderate president Hassan Rouhani, vindicating his approach to mend international ties. This provides new momentum to EU-Iran relations, but Brussels and member states should continue to tread with caution.
The twin elections for a new parliament, the Majles, and the Assembly of Experts, which will elect a new Supreme Leader once the current officeholder, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, passes away, in effect became a referendum on the nuclear deal concluded last July. In both bodies, so-called moderates and reformers prevailed over conservatives and principalists. Thus, not only has Iran so far complied with its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), facilitated by EU High Representative Federica Mogherini, but Iranians have reconfirmed their support for the deal’s on-going implementation.
“The election – which saw a turnout of nearly two-thirds – signalled overall popular support for the Islamic Republic”
But this was no landslide victory that will profoundly change the country. First of all, exact numbers for each camp are still hard to give due to some outstanding runoffs and generally weak – or non-existent – party allegiances. More importantly, though, ‘the system’ under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei will continue to balance the various political factions of the country to maintain national unity. In a way, the election – which saw a turnout of nearly two-thirds, also signalled overall popular support for the Islamic Republic, reassuring the Supreme Leader himself, who had carefully put himself behind the nuclear deal.
For Europeans hoping for a continued rapprochement with Iran, the result is of course good news. Yet no one should get overexcited about an imminent ‘normalisation’ of EU relations with the country. Even if EU officials can now dust off their decade-old plans for a trade and cooperation agreement with Tehran, which were shelved when Iran’s clandestine nuclear activities were revealed in 2002, it is useful to recall how tense relations were even at that time.
“Iranians are all too aware of what has happened in other countries in their region once ‘regime change’ became a reality”
In the short history of the Islamic Republic, Iranians have experienced a devastating war in the 1980s, a gradual recovery throughout the 1990s, an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to reform the system from within around the millennium as well as years of populism, mismanagement and corruption until 2013, interspersed by the violent suppression of the ‘green’ reform movement. By using the very circumscribed means of democracy at their disposal – the hard-line Guardian Council barred hundreds of reformist and moderate candidates from running in the elections –, the people have signalled that they prefer a change within the system rather than a change of the system. Iranians are all too aware of what has happened in other countries in their region, from Afghanistan to Iraq and Syria, once ‘regime change’ became a reality, or at least a distinct possibility.
The road to change in Iran is thus still long, and Europe has only very limited influence on events there. In the short term, there will be no major improvement of the human rights situation in Iran, nor will Tehran easily make peace with Syria. Europe can and should continue to raise these issues, but should focus most on where it can achieve more: kick-starting Iran’s economy, because the country wants and needs cooperation. Instead of allowing a free-for-all, the EU and its member states should accompany the market opening by pressing for transparent rules of the game, including through any partnership agreement.
If those citizens who voted for moderate change are to feel any positive effects of a warming of relations with Europe, the latter cannot limit itself to trading with Iran while making political charades about the lack of domestic freedoms. Instead, it is where rights and business come together that an EU built on both the rule of law and economic cooperation can have the biggest impact.
IMAGE CREDIT: CC / FLICKR – European External Action Service
The post What Iran’s elections mean for its ties with Europe appeared first on Europe’s World.
will take place on Wednesday 16 March, 9:00-12:30 and 15:00-18:30, and Thursday 17 March, 9:00-12:30 in Brussels.
Organisations or interest groups who wish to apply for access to the European Parliament will find the relevant information below.
The European Union development strategy supports the regional integration and the governance of the Republic of Congo.
This is Thursday’s edition of our Brussels Briefing. To receive it every morning in your email in-box, sign up here.
Tusk stops in Athens Thursday morning to meet with Greece's Alexis Tsipras en route to Ankara
If it’s Thursday, it must be Ankara.
Donald Tusk, the European Council president, is halfway through a four-day, six-country tour ahead of Monday’s emergency EU summit on refugees that culminates in Turkey. He will meet prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu today in Ankara and cool his heels most of tomorrow morning awaiting an afternoon meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. On almost every stop on his way to Turkey, Mr Tusk has signalled he still isn’t happy with the country’s efforts to stem the migrant flow despite the much-debated bilateral deal in which Ankara was supposed to crack down on migration in exchange for €3bn in EU aid. Tusk has promised to raise the issue with the Turks.
New numbers released by the UN’s refugee agency show that daily arrivals in Greece peaked at more than 3,600 last week, which is not much lower than it has been for the last two months. Overall numbers for February were slightly below January, but EU officials have been reluctant to concede on any Turkish requests – like a new programme to resettle Syrian refugees now in Turkey into Europe – unless those numbers fall more significantly.
Read more