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France ready to replace US with nuclear deterrent
France is ready to deploy nuclear-capable fighter jets to Germany in a strong signal to the Kremlin after the United States threatened to withdraw its troops from the continent. The statement could put pressure on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to take similar steps.
Immediately after the election, future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on the United Kingdom and France to expand their nuclear shields to reduce the continent’s dependence on Donald Trump’s United States for protection. French President Emmanuel Macron held talks with the German politician just before he was due to travel to Washington.
The United States has long guaranteed Europe’s security with its nuclear arsenal, a significant part of which is located at a US military base in Germany. France’s nuclear deterrent is currently independent of NATO (but works closely with it), while the United Kingdom’s is a key element of the North Atlantic Alliance’s defense strategy. Emmanuel Macron has already called on the continent’s leaders to discuss the role that French nuclear weapons could play in protecting Europe.
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European Union puts pressure on Rwanda
Despite international calls, fighting between the Democratic Republic of Congo Armed Forces (FARDC) and the M23 continues in the provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating with thousands of displaced people and widespread violence against civilians.
Rwanda is de facto leading the M23’s military operations and illegally exploiting Congolese mineral resources. Kinshasa continues to demand sanctions against Kigali and a firm response from the international community to the ongoing crisis in eastern DRC.
The European Parliament has adopted a resolution condemning Rwanda’s interference in the DRC and calling on Kigali to withdraw its troops. The resolution, voted by a large majority, also calls for the immediate suspension of the MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) between the EU and Rwanda on raw materials. MEPs denounce Kigali’s support for the M23 rebels, who occupy several territories in eastern DRC.
MEPs insisted on the need for the EU to take concrete measures, including freezing budgetary aid to Rwanda and suspending all military cooperation.
The European Commission’s reaction is awaited, while MEPs call for an embargo on minerals from Rwanda and a reassessment of current economic agreements.
France, through its Minister of Foreign Affairs, reiterated its support for the sovereignty of the DRC and condemned the M23 offensives.
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South Sudan / CERPESC Analysis
“Born to be Wild”
– South Sudan after the Independence
András István Türke
CERPESC 18/AF/07/2025 – 09 January 2025
Before 2011, until the declaration of independence of the Republic of South-Sudan (Juba), Sudan was the largest country in Africa and the seventh most populous. It was ruled by General Omar al-Bashir between 1989-2019. This analysis seeks to answer the basic questions how has the South Sudan issue been handled by Khartoum since Sudan’s independence in 1956? And how has South Sudan’s political life changed since the proclamation of independence on 9 July 2011? Has the long-awaited peace and economic prosperity arrived? Is it really Khartoum who has been the only one who has interfered the development of this region? Or maybe the first 14 years of the new state weren’t such a success story after all? How did the cooperation between the former allies develop? Did local conflicts develop over the oil reserves? And finally, how did the relationship with neighboring Sudan develop?
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US Withdrawal from Niger
The withdrawal process of US forces and assets from Niger began on May 19 following the mutual establishment of withdrawal conditions and continued with the withdrawal from Air Base 101 in Niamey on July 7, 2024, and Air Base 201 in Agadez on Aug. 5, 2024.
Additionally, the U.S. Africa Command Coordination Element, consisting of a two-star General Officer and staff, has departed from Niger.
Over the past decade, American troops have trained Niger’s forces and supported partner-led counterterrorism missions against Islamic State and al Qaeda in the region.
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Book about Wagner PMC
Russia’s Wagner PMC (Wagner Group):
Establishment, purpose, profile and historic relevance worldwide
> Autors: Besenyö, Janos – Türke, András István – Szénási, Endre
> Publisher: Helion
> EUVI/ CERPESC Contribution: Wagner PMC in Africa
> COMING SOON (Spring 2024)
The Wagner Group is symbolic of Russia’s deployment of private military companies (PMCs) to exercise influence in Africa, the Middle East and Europe since the mid-2010s. Nominally an independent commercial enterprise, but actually operating on behalf of the Russian government, and in close cooperation with the Ministry of Defence and its Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and the Federal Security Service (FSB), it has been deployed to perform a very wide range of military and paramilitary tasks, provide security, and collect intelligence.
Through much of its existence, the activity of the Wagner Group appears to have been clandestine and poorly recorded. In practice, the operating principles of this PMC have been very similar to those of numerous similar enterprises from the West.
Since its failed coup attempt in the summer of 2023, the fate of the Wagner Group appears to be sealed. Indeed, presently, it is highly unlikely that a Russian PMC might ever again have the same power and influence that Wagner once wielded. However, this does not mean that such all such enterprises have been completely disbanded: only that the Wagner Group has not (yet) been replaced by some other enterprise – whether Russian or foreign. In fact, we are witnessing a recurrent trend that is likely to become even more characteristic for conflicts in the coming decades as almost everybody who can afford to pay for the services of a PMC is hiring them. Indeed, numerous governments in control of relatively weak or disloyal armed forces have concluded that the deployment of a PMC holds significant advantages.
This two-part works examines the predecessors to the Wagner Group, and the establishment of the latter organisation by Yevgeny Prigozhin, its activities in a number of conflicts around the world, and its armed mutiny against the top leadership of the Russian Federation. It is thoroughly illustrated with authentic photographs and custom commissioned colour illustrations and maps.
(Helion)
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EUNAVFOR ASPIDES : From the Red Sea to the Gulf
19/02/2024: The European Union launched a naval mission (Aspides = Protektor in Greek) to protect commercial vessels in the Red Sea from attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
Since late 2023, as a result of Houthi attacks on maritime shipping, maritime security in the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Gulf has significantly degraded. The deterioration of the maritime security in the Red Sea has disrupted a key geopolitical area for international shipping. This affects negatively the EU as well as the wider international community.
Operation ASPIDES will contribute to restore and safeguard freedom of navigation, for the sake of the EU, the region, and the wider international community.
EUNAVFOR OPERATION ASPIDES, within its purely defensive mandate, will protect shipping targeted by attacks at sea or air. It will not conduct strikes on land. ASPIDES will act in line with the UN Security Council Resolution 2722, which demands the cessation of Houthis’ attacks on merchant and commercial vessels, and recognises the right to defend vessels against such attacks, in line with international law. Building upon the Strategic Compass for Security and Defence, ASPIDES consolidates the EU’s capacity to respond rapidly to a global crisis, in cooperation with like-minded international partners, while reinforcing the strategic autonomy of the EU.
The force commander Stefano Constantino was former tactical commander of the Operation AGENOR operation in the Strait of Hormuz from 6 July 2022 to January 2023. AGENOR was the military component of the European led Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz (EMASoH) established at the beginning of 2020 by the governments of Denmark, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal (to which was recently added also Norway) in order to guarantee the safety of navigation in an area of operation centered on the Strait of Hormuz and extended northwards to the entire Gulf and southwards to the area of the Indian Ocean located along the Omani coasts.
Last year, Constantino held the position of tactical commander at sea of Operation Safe Mediterranean (OSM), in a portion of the Mediterranean that goes from the west of Sardinia to include its entire central and eastern part.
Among the tasks of Operation Safe Mediterranean stand out the defense of maritime communication lines, the monitoring and protection of the national, merchant and fishing fleets, the increase in surveillance and the protection of the dense network of strategic underwater infrastructures that run on the seabed around the Peninsula, such as telephone and data transfer cables, electricity lines and gas pipelines. International, inter-ministerial cooperation and synergy in the field of maritime security with the countries bordering the Mediterranean complete the picture of the activities carried out by this important Operation to defend the free use of the sea.
OHQ: EU multunationalisable HQ, Larissa (Greece)
Staff:
– OHQ: 130
– FHQ embarked on a Frigate: 30
Operation Area : From the Red Sea to the Gulf and a large part of the North-West Indian Ocean
Assets: 4 frigates + 1 aerial asset
Budget: €8 million
Participating States: Greece, France, Italy, Germany
Force commander: Rear Admiral Stefano Costantino (IT)
D-day: 19 February 2024
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Adaptive Hussars 2023
Joint NATO Military Exercice in Hungary: In November 2023, under the name ADAPTIVE HUSSARS 2023, the Hungarian Defence Forces are going to hold a multinational domestic military exercise with the participation of NATO forces in order to test the defence capabilities of the country. The objective of the exercise is to test the military’s readiness for and response to an imagined situation threatening Hungary’s security.
The Hungarian Defence Forces will be carrying out military operations on several spots around the country, with the objective of strengthening cooperation between the HDF and the civilian public administration.
This is the Largest Military Exercise in Hungary in 30 Years, the population must be advised that in the framework of this multinational exercise, increased military traffic will be moving on major and minor roads at several places in Hungary between 2 and 26 November.
Adaptive Hussars 23 involves around 5,000 Hungarian troops, including 500 reservists.
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New CERPESC site 2023
The new site of CERPESC started to be developed! The old site remain available here
———————————————————————————
03/03/2023
Updated page : Burkina Faso
27/12/2021
New pages : Rwanda and Burundi
03/04/2018
Updated page : Trade Policy
30/11/2017
Nouvelle série : Les Manuels du CERPESC
More news→ (function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){ (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o), m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m) })(window,document,'script','//www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js','ga'); ga('create', 'UA-40360849-1', 'visuart.eu'); ga('send', 'pageview');
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Book about North Africa and the Sahel Region
Terrorism and Political Contention in North Africa and the Sahel Region
> Editors: János Besenyő, Leonid Issaev, & Andrey Korotayev
> Publisher: Springer
> COMING SOON (2023)
The book analyzes factors of political contention in North Africa and the Sahel after the Arab Spring. The sharp increase in the terrorist activity in the Sahel after the Arab Spring led to serious destabilization, as well as the emergence of new and re-actualization of old conflicts in the region. A number of terrorist groups have emerged and/or intensified their activities, including ones associated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (AQIM, DNIM, ISGS, ISWAP, etc.). In a number of cases, full-scale Islamists insurgencies emerged and provoked increased external interference in the affairs of the region. The aforementioned processes led to the fact that the position of some of the great powers and countries present in North Africa and the Sahel region weakened or even strengthened, so they had to re-evaluate their previous policies. The effect of this is even less visible now, but in the long term it will clearly affect the security of the region and the processes taking place there. This is also true for the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the effects of which are already visible in the countries of the African continent and whose impact on the security of the region will entail serious challenges. The book proposes to analyze and generalize organization forms and dynamics of the terrorism and conflict in North Africa and the Sahel region.
EUVI/CERPESC contributions :
(5) “Chasse gardée » or « faubourg »?: Politico-Military Interventions of France in the Sahel Region
(Andras Istvan Türke – Europa Varietas Institute, Switzerland and African Research Institute of Óbuda University, Budapest)
Abstract
On September 11, 2006 Ayman Al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s number two announced that France is as much their enemies as the USA and the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat has become France`s number one enemy in the field of terrorism. In the Sahel region, France increased its presence after 2008 with counter-terrorist operations against jihadist organizations. The operations of special commandos were followed and accompanied by specific intervention operations. The Libyan intervention and the disintegration of Libya (2011) had a drastic domino effect. States are disintegrating, jihadist organizations (based on historical precedents from the 19th century) are multiplying and strengthening, and in many cases, they also perform state functions and are increasingly popular among the local population. With the weakening and elimination of state factors, the local legal bases for the fight against jihadist terrorist organizations have disappeared. The chapter focuses on French interventions in the Sahel region, especially on the relations with Chad, on the operations in the “peripheral regions” (in Mauritania, Djibouti and Somalia) and finally on today`s French anti-jihadist operations and their geopolitical context, with particular attention to the Task Force Sabre, Serval and Barkhane operations.
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Livre sur l`Afrique francophone
Frankofón Afrika (Afrique francophone) (HU)
> Editeur: CUF Szeged
> Rédacteur-en-chef: Brucker, Balázs – Kruzslicz, Péter
> Parution prévue: octobre 2023
Contribution de l`Institut Europa Varietas (CERPESC):
Türke, Andras Istvan:
A CEDEAO (Nyugat-afrikai Államok Gazdasági Közössége) a nyugat-afrikai integrációs törekvések tükrében
La CEDEAO de l`aspect de l`intégration de l`Afrique occidentale
Türke, Andras Istvan:
Az afrikai Nagy tavak térségének frankofón államai – A Kongói Demokratikus Köztársaság, Ruanda és Burundi
Les Etats de la région des grands lacs en Afrique – L`histoire contemporaine de la République Démocratique du Congo, du Rwanda et du Burundi
(Illustration: Tiffet; Source: https://www.ledevoir.com/societe/686892/nous-sommes-321-millions-de-francophones-dans-le-monde)
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EU finance Rwanda`s troop in Capo Delgado (Mozambique)
The intervention by 3,000 Rwandan soldiers and police officers was partly financed by the European Peace Facility, a mechanism that enables it to “support partners in the fields of defense in order to prevent conflicts and strengthen international security.”
The Rwandan military benefited from assistance worth €20 million, intended particularly for the transport of troops and the purchase of equipment (tents, vehicles, generators, and so on).
Since 2021 Rwanda Security Forces were deployed to fight terrorists, there base is in Mocimboa da Praia.
“In 2018, a contingent of 160-300 people of Wagner PMC arrived in Mozembique to help fight against jihadists (Al Shabab, 1 500 – 4 000 people) settled in the northern part of the country, who were posing a threat for the Cabo Delgado gas fields. Fighting alongside the 12 000-strong Mozambican Army, Wagner was given the Nacala base in August 2019. President Filipe Nyusi and Putin signed a bilateral defence agreement. Nevertheless, the Wagner Group finally left the country in May 2020 because it suffered very serious losses. ” (See more details)
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France-Croatia: Enhanced Cooperation
Croatia's purchase of Rafales aircraft appears to be a hallmark of an important new geopolitical alliance. The strengthened Franco-Croatian cooperation has 6 pillars and is organized by three-year projects
1.) The first pillar deals with strengthening political cooperation and partnership at bilateral and European level.
2.) The second pillar deals with enhanced dialogue and a privileged relationship with South-Eastern Europe.
3.) The third part is devoted to joint cooperation in the environment and international organizations, France's support for Croatia's path to Schengen, the euro zone, the OECD.
4.) The fourth pillar concerns the strengthening of military cooperation, which provides an opportunity to make better use of the funds available within the EU to strengthen military capabilities and the military industry.
5.) The fifth pillar concerns the strategic partnership linked to the strengthening of economic, cultural, scientific and university cooperation.
6.) The sixth part concerns administrative cooperation.
SNA Suffren's first trip to the sea
The French Navy’s new nuclear attack submarine made its first sea trip on April 28
Tag: SuffrenOpération Résilience
BPC Mistral (Antilles et Guyane), BPC Dixmude (Réunion) et BPC Tonnerre (Corse) sont mobilisés.
Tag: BPCOpération RésilienceNorth Macedonia becomes NATO’s 30th member
“North Macedonia is now part of the NATO family, a family of 30 nations and almost 1 billion people. A family based on the certainty that, no matter what challenges we face, we are all stronger and safer together," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski said: "We cannot rejoice and mark the event as it should [be marked] … But, this is a historic success that after three decades of independence, finally confirms Macedonian security and guarantees our future. Congratulations to all of you! We deserve it!”
Pendarovski signed the so-called instrument of accession after Spain earlier in the week became the last alliance member to ratify the former Yugoslav republic’s membership.
Since gaining independence, one of the strategic goals of the country was to join NATO, as was stated in 1993, and the relationship with Alliance was always marked by close cooperation. North Macedonia joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) in 1995, and in 1999 the country submitted its first Membership Action Plan. Furthermore, North Macedonia deployed troops in support of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan from 2002 to end 2014 and is currently supporting the follow-on Resolute Support mission to train, advise and assist the Afghan security forces. Before that, the country was a key partner in supporting NATO-led operations in Kosovo in 1999, as well as to provide logistical support to the Kosovo Force (KFOR) mission.
The 20th NATO Summit in Bucharest in 2008 was more than symbolic, as it was expected that Albania, Croatia and (then) Macedonia would receive an invitation to join NATO. However, although Albania and Croatia did receive the invitation and became members a year later.
It marks the end of a long quest for the former Yugoslav republic. Joining NATO and the European Union has been a priority for its leaders, but a dispute with neighboring Greece over the country’s name stalled progress for more than two decades. North Macedonia previously was known as FYROM (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia), a name it shared with a Greek province. Under a 2017 deal with Athens, the country changed its name and Greece agreed to drop objections to its NATO and eventual EU membership.
On the other hand, Kržalovski thinks that until now the participation of North Macedonia in NATO mission was symbolic.
“We have also increased defense part of the budget, though we are not at the level of 2% of the GDP yet. As a small country, both the requirements and expectations from other members are not so high, and our participation so far in NATO missions were rather symbolic, although we have participated with a relatively high number of soldiers in proportion to the overall size of the Army”, explains Kržalovski.
The budget increase that he mentions is DEN 10,133,000,000 for 2020, or about 1.4% of North Macedonia’s total GDP, which is an increase over 2019 when it was about 1.19% of total GDP. Interestingly, this is a third year of the defense budget increase, but it is still far from the prescribed 2% of BDP. However, this is not a major problem, as many current NATO members have not fulfilled this provision.
Accident au Mali
13 morts. Il s'agit du bilan humain le plus lourd pour les opérations extérieures de l'Armée française depuis 36 ans. Le 23 octobre 1983, 58 soldats français avaient été tués lors de l'attentat du Drakkar à Beyrouth (Liban). L'accident de lundi dépasse le bilan de l'embuscade d'Uzbin en Afghanistan, le 18 août 2008, où dix Français avaient perdu la vie.
Tag: MaliHMS Prince of Wales will be commissioned soon
HMS Prince of Wales, second Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier for the Royal Navy will be formally commissioned on December, 10 2019.
Tag: HMS Prince of WalesSCAF : The New Franco-German Aircraft
SCAF : Future Combat Air System
Tag: SCALF
