Diplomacy & Crisis News

The Islamic State-Khorasan claimed responsibility for a bombing at a political rally months before a national vote.

A growing list of people protected from justice highlights a pervasive culture of impunity.

Most global powers with a military presence or financial stake in the country stand to lose from instability—and that could put pressure on the military junta.

The country’s Supreme Court has played a pivotal role in securing gender equality. Neutering it will deal a blow to women’s rights.

China used the HQ-7 “Crotale” outside of a stadium as protection during the 2008 Olympics.

While there are some that claim that China has been supplying some arms to Russia during its battle with Ukraine, the official position of China is to appear as a neutral party in the conflict. This is mostly to avoid sanctions or other actions against their economy by Western nations as China is heavily dependent on trade with the West. China, who has tried to expand their military equipment exports past a few of its neighbours, has now reached the point of being able to export advanced weapons systems. While some categories would do well in an export markets, others are tied to licensed or copied technology from Russia, Europe and the United States, which limits the ability to independently export the equipment.

Supplying both sides of the conflict might be advantageous for China. While China is openly seeking opportunities to be seen as a diplomatic force in the world over the last few months, favouring one side’s needs in the conflict in Ukraine may limit a critical narrative against China. With so many supply issues in NATO countries, China might do well if it can be shown to be assisting NATO allies with much needed shortages.

While Chinese munitions and systems may find their way to Russia, China would also be able to sell defensive systems to NATO and Ukraine without causing too much damage in its relationship with Russia. Offensive weapons may sever ties with one side or the other, but as the conflict escalates and becomes more desperate, more supplies would be requested and less restrictions would probably come in the medium term. This can be seen with the recent introduction of Cluster munitions by NATO into the conflict.

Regarding aircraft sales, China may not be able to depend on sales of its fighters and attack aircraft past sales to Russia. While there is little demand at the moment because Russia has not lost many aircraft, the nature of jets is often offensive and may sour relations with NATO. Licensing of sales of China’s aircraft like the JF-17 and J-10 is also hindered by the fact that they use the engines of the MIG-29 and SU-27 respectively. Any sales of these planes would need consent from the engine’s country of origin, which is Russia. While newer J-10s have a Chinese made engine, the export market would likely not involve NATO allies geared towards the battle in Ukraine as they have yet to send Western planes into the conflict.

The number of tanks being destroyed in the war in Ukraine has broken records several times over. With the Offensive taking place, many NATO tanks will also fall victim to the assault. China will likely end up with one of the largest reserves of semi-modern and modern main battle tanks in the world, and may be interested in selling their ZTZ-99 tanks to either side. The ZTZ-99 is as capable as a modernised T-72, the most well used tank in the field in Ukraine, but uses many Western components and is a mixture of NATO and Russian technology. While this offensive weapon would cause problems for China’s relations with the West and Russia, desperate sides may overlook politics in acquiring advanced weapons after a long period of conflict.

China has a similar heavy artillery focused strategy as Russia, and they produced Russian equivalents of many of the Soviet artillery systems. Russia’s 2S3 Akatsiya cannon was married to China’s Type 83, and their more modern PLZ05 shares much of the same cannon components as the Russian 2S19 MSTA. This means that much of the Soviet and Russian munitions work with both Chinese systems, along with older systems like their PLZ89, equivalent of the 2S1 Gvozdika seeing a lot of action being used by both side in Ukraine. Any side that would be able to obtain large quantities of Soviet munition capable artillery systems would gain a huge advantage. This is also why sales of such equipment with create a diplomatic rift with either side of the conflict, and would likely not be sold.

Air defense may be the best option for China to sell to either side in the conflict. Being mostly defensive weapons, systems like the PGZ95, tantamount to a very modern ZSU-23-4 Shilka, or the PGZ09, China’s own Gepard, may be used effectively against drones and lead to many innocent lives saved. Older missile systems like the HQ-7B, similar to a modernised Cold War era French Crotale, could deter attacks by Russian aircraft and may be able to shoot down some drones. A S-300 equivalent, the HQ-9, would be able to act as a long range air defence deterrent but would likely cost either side pilots if used. China’s HQ-17, a version of the Russian TOR-M1, would be a very capable mid range defender of any base or power plant threatened by missiles or planes. Such systems are usually paired with anti-air cannons like the PGZ95 and PGZ09 to defend from multiple threats.

Anti-air systems allow for the aggressors to choose whether or not they want to risk entering a specific zone of conflict and are used in many cases to deter attacks on civilians targets and infrastructure. While extremely dangerous if used improperly, it can be used to limit innocent casualties and de-escalate a conflict where honour and revenge fuels much of the responses from either side.

While the best outcome of the conflict is a hopeful de-escalation by both sides, there does not seem to be signs of this occurring in the near future. With shortages on both sides, there will likely be a mass move to add more weapons to the battlefield until distant achievements are met. China’s self interest may play into this global conflict in 2023, but the best move is clearly to not get involved. China depends on exported oil and gas as well as the international grain supply now being short coming out of Ukraine. If offensive weapons are found to be of Chinese origin, a big diplomatic rift may occur with China and NATO, or even Russia. China’s balancing act may include weapons sales, but it would be under the conditions of scarce supply by either side of the conflict and the sale of more defensive systems, especially if capable of protecting civilian targets.

Bola Tinubu’s new role as ECOWAS chair, and the coup in Niger, present an opportunity for a foreign-policy reset.

Beijing’s struggles could be an opportunity for Washington.

What New Delhi's diplomacy can and cannot achieve.

The apparent purge comes amid a renewed crackdown on corruption in the military.

Mali and Burkina Faso warn foreign powers that any move to undermine Niger’s coup would be a “declaration of war” against their own countries.

Evgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin’s chef-turned-warlord, appears to be cooking up trouble in Africa. The leader of the Wagner Group announced on July 19 in a video that Wagner troops should prepare for fighting in Africa. This is consistent with earlier Wagner Group activities. Wagner mercenaries have committed human rights violations and engaged variously in smuggling, disinformation campaigns, and natural resource extraction in Burkina Faso, Mali, Mozambique, Sudan, and across the continent. These smuggling operations have been vital for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, as while the wider Russian economy buckles under sanctions, the vast amounts of gold and other minerals Wagner is extracting keep the Russian treasury afloat.

Whether or not the recent coup in Niger presents new opportunities for Wagnerian infiltration, the event will have significant geo-economic and geostrategic impacts. Niger is home to 5 percent of global uranium production. European energy production is also dependent on Nigerien uranium. According to Oxfam, “In France, one out of every three light bulbs is lit thanks to Nigerien uranium,” which is vital for broader European energy production. With the new government in Niamey announcing a total closure of its borders for the time being, European energy markets will feel a pinch if regular exports do not resume within several weeks.

This is not the first time Niger has experienced political discord. This week’s coup d’état is the fifth since the country gained independence from France in 1960. Some coups were brazen seizures of powers by the military, others putative defenses of democracy. Now, both sides claim a democratic mandate. Deposed ministers are calling on the civilian population to “rescue hard-won democratic gains.” At the same time, the new junta, some of whom cooperated with Russia in the past, pledged to preserve democracy and restore the rule of law.

Unsurprisingly, regional instability spills over into Niger. The wider Sahel region is a mess, and the country has to contend with multiple intersecting jihadist insurgencies. From the south, sectarian rebellions overflow from northern Nigeria and Cameroon. From the north, endemic chaos reigns in Libya. Looking east and west, Tuareg rebels in Mali and insurgents in Northern Chad present a grim outlook for regional security. More disruptive forces emanate from Sudan as well. For some time, it appeared that Niger was an exception to the anarchic trend. The now deposed Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum had even deepened security ties with the United States.

However, the continuing chaos is a feature, not a bug, of Russian policy in Africa. Russia’s ailing and lagging soft power means it can offer little to Sub-Saharan African actors compared to the West or China. As a result, it opened its arsenal to both sides in armed conflicts throughout the continent and hopes that the short-term gains from mining and smuggling will save the Russian economy from the impact of Western sanctions. Moscow’s ruthlessly self-centered behavior is evident in the overall shift of Russian diplomacy towards the region since 2022. In July of last year, the African Union (AU) and Russia cordially discussed the prospect of resuming Russian grain shipments to needy African countries. In July 2023, after Russia literally torpedoed the grain deal and intensified food insecurity on the continent, only one-third of the invited African leaders to an African Union-Russia summit showed up.

Should Russia continue to expand its influence in the Sahel, it will enable the spread of anti-Western, radical terrorism while simultaneously disrupting Western energy supplies, including uranium. Disrupting alternative energy supply chains is critical for Russia since it increases European dependence on Russian natural gas and petroleum.

The Wagner Group may have lost some presence on Ukrainian battlefields, but that does not mean they no longer contribute to Russia’s war effort. However estranged Russian president Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin may be, the latter still advances the Kremlin’s grand strategy. Prigozhin called the conflict with the West “global.” For Wagner, it sure is.

Western policymakers should act to protect the uranium supply chain in Africa and recognize that Sudan and Niger are not just another organic bout of African instability. This is part of the Russian strategy to sow chaos in a desperate gambit to win its energy war.

Wesley Alexander Hill is the lead analyst and International Program Manager for the Energy, Growth, and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center. He researches geopolitical and geo-economic issues involving China, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Image: Shutterstock.

The weeks of intense turmoil in Israel over its future provides an opportunity for the United States to reassess its own policy toward that country. Former U.S. ambassadors and mainstream American columnists are broaching what was previously unthinkable: ending aid to Israel. The heavily indebted United States (federal debt owned by the public has reached nearly 100 percent of U.S. GDP) provides almost $4 billion in annual military aid to a rich country that has long been able to afford to pay for its own defense. Ending that largesse is long overdue.

Both sides in the current maelstrom of protest over weakening the Israeli Supreme Court, the only remaining check on the country’s parliament, are arguing that they are promoting democracy. That is not really true. Only the ultranationalist/religious Right-controlled parliament is strengthening democracy by trying to weaken the court by mandating that it no longer can strike down parliament-passed laws by ruling them “unreasonable.” The secular/pluralist side of the debate, despite their rhetoric, is really fighting for more democracy by trying to keep the one republican feature of Israel’s parliamentary system: a strong Supreme Court.

As the U.S. founders realized, unconstrained democracy is to be feared. It is no surprise that the Biden administration and many American Jews and supporters of Israel—used to the American written constitution (Israel has none) providing republican checks and balances to constrain raw majority power, that is, pure democracy—are uncomfortable with the Israeli ultranationalist/religious Right’s attempt to weaken the court and institute what could become a tyranny of the majority. Unlike Israel, the United States has many built-in safeguards to check majority power: a bicameral legislature, an independent executive with a veto over legislation, federalism that allows state governments to govern on many issues, a Bill of Rights that majorities at the federal and state level are not supposed to trample on, and a Supreme Court that is supposed to uphold those rights. Israel, however, has only a Supreme Court to sometimes temper parliamentary excesses and stick up for at least some rights.

The secular pluralist republicans in Israel fear that, with a weakened court, the rights of certain groups not favored by the ultranationalist/religious faction will be crushed by the unchecked parliamentary majority. Among the groups likely to be harmed are Israeli Arabs (about 20 percent of the population) and Palestinians in the West Bank. Although Israel is a democracy of sorts, it is not for those groups, who are treated as second-class citizens. The Israeli parliament, constrained less by a weakened court, would likely further erode the rights of Israeli Arabs, allow more Israeli settlers to take more of Palestinian land, or even attempt to annex the West Bank.

Most of these Israeli policies, which many Americans are uncomfortable with, are ongoing. But they could be accelerated with the demise of a court that occasionally stops or attenuates especially egregious Israeli government policies toward these disadvantaged groups. One would think that $4 billion in annual military aid give the United States leverage to moderate Israeli behavior toward both groups of Arabs. It hasn’t. In fact, continued U.S. aid—even when Israel has essentially locked up Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza for years and controlled their movement and trade, while it has stalled the creation of a promised Palestinian state and allowed Israeli settlers to grab ever more Palestinian land in the West Bank—implicitly condones Israel’s bad behavior and even funds military forces that can be used to sustain this human rights travesty.

Washington should end the almost $4 billion a year in military aid not just for all these reasons, but also because Israel has grown rich and can fund its own armed forces. The country now ranks 24th in the world in income per capita, right up there with other rich developed countries in Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf. The country no longer needs the aid—it even should be embarrassing to the wealthy Israelis—and implies U.S. agreement with objectionable policies toward Palestinians and Israeli Arabs.

Ivan Eland is a senior fellow with the Independent Institute and author of War and the Rogue Presidency.

Image: Shutterstock.

A recent development has rocked the scientific community over the past two weeks. Advocates proclaim that we now potentially stand on the brink of a transformative age in technology that could render our current power network and level of technology as quaintly outdated as the telegraph.

The harbinger of this new age? Room-temperature superconductors—materials that conduct electricity with perfect efficiency, without the need for deep chilling. If viable, then the arrival of these superconductors is not just a technological leap; it’s a paradigm shift with significant implications for the economy, national security and defense policy, and the future of energy consumption.

First, however, we must determine whether these superconductors can truly be made. Policymakers and experts ought to be aware of the currently unfolding events.

The Quest for the Holy Grail

Let’s start with some basic science. A superconductor, as the name suggests, is a material that can conduct electricity with zero resistance. In other words, it allows an electric current to flow indefinitely without any loss of energy. Compare this to say, contemporary batteries, which can lose up to 25 percent of stored energy over time.

If that sounds astounding, that’s because it is. However, this magic comes with a caveat: traditional superconductors only function in high-pressure, low-temperature environments akin to those found in the deepest recesses of outer space, thus limiting their practical application.

Enter room-temperature superconductors. As the name indicates, these are superconductors that operate at temperatures you would typically find in your everyday environment. The quest for this radical development has been ongoing for decades, with physicists and material scientists around the globe drawn to this scientific holy grail like bees to honey.

As of late last month, it appears that the grail may—just may—have been found. A group of South Korean scientists published papers claiming that they had developed a room-temperature, standard atmospheric pressure superconductor utilizing a lead-based material now dubbed “LK-99.” The scientists’ results have supposedly been successfully replicated by Chinese researchers. Other physicists around the world are racing to see if they too can create functioning LK-99. A preprint from Sinéad M. Griffin, a physicist from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, provides an explanation of what the South Korean scientists have seen. Yet other efforts to reproduce the results have predominantly fallen short. The School of Materials Science and Engineering at Beihang University in China attempted to replicate the LK-99 team’s process but encountered different outcomes. Likewise, a team at the National Physical Laboratory of India also failed.

The jury is thus still out on whether or not LK-99 is indeed a viable room-temperature superconductor—we are still extremely early in the scientific investigative process. We must wait until respected national laboratories, institutions, and others more thoroughly experiment with the process. We simply will not know for days, perhaps even weeks, whether LK-99 is in fact the real thing. Even if it isn’t, however, current results indicate that, at the very least, the compound’s discovery “suggests new lines of research” into room-temperature superconductors.

A Scientific Revolution…

But let us suppose, for a moment, that LK-99 is indeed the real thing. Or, at the very least, that there is now theoretical evidence that room-temperature superconductors are possible and we’ll have the real thing developed within a decade or so. If so, why should this matter to us?

The answer is that the potential applications of this new superconductor, if viable, are nothing short of revolutionary.

Our current electrical grid leaks enormous amounts of energy as heat due to resistance in wires. Now envision a world where electrical power grids lose virtually no energy in transmission. Room-temperature superconductors could lead to “perfect” power lines, supercharging the efficiency of our power infrastructure, slashing energy costs in the billions of dollars, reducing carbon footprints, and invigorating the growth of renewable energy. Moreover, smaller, more efficient electrical equipment is possible. Think electric vehicles with dramatically improved range, or data centers consuming less power.

Further radical effects would be felt in various fields.

In transportation, the introduction of room-temperature superconductors could herald the advent of high-speed, magnetically levitated trains that whizz along at blistering speeds with unmatched energy efficiency—New York City to Los Angeles in twenty minutes flat. This could revolutionize both intercity travel and freight delivery, dramatically reducing commute and delivery times while making a significant dent in transportation-related emissions.

In the realm of information technology, these superconductors could catalyze the development of quantum computers. The technology, while still in its nascent stages, promises computational capabilities that make today’s most powerful supercomputers seem rudimentary. With room-temperature superconductors, this could become commonplace—comparable with the equivalent of the most advanced modern supercomputer being condensed into the size of a smartphone

In medicine, room-temperature superconductors would turbocharge existing high-tech applications. Regulator superconductors are already used here; they are the hidden champions powering Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scanners, allowing doctors to peer inside the human body in unprecedented detail, all without a single incision. Yet these require cryogenic temperatures to function. Room-temperature superconductors would, in the words of one engineer, “make MRI’s both more accessible, affordable, and also increase resolution to the sub micro-meter scale. Autodocs for all.”

In short, the impact of room-temperature superconductors would likely be seismic. The advent of these superconductors could usher in an era of unprecedented industrial growth, igniting the birth of entirely new industries, driving economic growth, and generating millions of jobs in sectors ranging from technology and transportation to energy and healthcare. The companies that harness this transformative technology could emerge as global economic powerhouses.

…and a Geopolitical Revolution?

But perhaps the greatest impact lies in the realm of national security, defense, and foreign policy.

Military systems depend heavily on electricity, from aircraft carriers down to the individual soldier’s gear. Room-temperature superconductors could mean more efficient and compact power systems, lighter and longer-lasting batteries, and more powerful radar and sonar systems. The U.S. military’s ability to project power around the globe would be significantly enhanced, as would its ability to sustain operations in remote areas.

Moreover, as the military becomes more electrified and networked, the vulnerability of its power infrastructure becomes a critical concern. Superconducting cables are resistant to many types of disruption and could theoretically even be designed to automatically “heal” after a break, greatly improving the resilience of the military’s power networks.

More broadly, room-temperature superconductors could reshape global geopolitical dynamics by altering the strategic significance of energy resources. If room-temperature superconductors lead to cheaper, more efficient storage and transmission of renewable energy, nations with abundant renewable resources could gain a strategic advantage. Oil-dependent economies could find their power waning.

Yet a superconductive world is not without its significant risks. The potential military applications of room-temperature superconductors could lead to a new technological arms race. Governments across the globe would quickly recognize the strategic importance of this technology and rush to stake their claim, leading to international disputes over patents, technology transfers, and market access. There are significant national security implications if other nations master this technology first, or if the United States fails to secure its supply chains for the requisite critical materials needed to make room-temperature superconductors.

This is not a prospect to be taken lightly, and policymakers must factor in these considerations while shaping policies.

When the Magic Becomes Real

The quest for room-temperature superconductors thus paints a tantalizing picture of a future that may be within our grasp—one where energy flows freely without loss, high-speed trains levitate on invisible magnetic tracks, and quantum computers hum in offices worldwide. Washington could perhaps speed up this transformation through a variety of means: increased funding for research and development, tax incentives for companies investing in superconductor technology, and strategic public-private partnerships that share the financial risks and rewards of this ground-breaking technology.

But the superconductive moment, such as it is, also presents us with a formidable challenge: how to harness the transformative potential of this technology while navigating the geopolitical tensions and policy challenges it presents. The superconductive transition would be massively disruptive, with entire industries falling prey to technological change, oil-rich and technologically-poor nations suddenly falling behind, and new dangers manifesting.

The balance that must be struck is a delicate one, melding the drive for economic growth and technological superiority with the pursuit of international cooperation and sustainable progress. It is incumbent that policymakers be extremely careful in this effort.

Ultimately, time will tell whether LK-99 is the real deal; a viable room temperature superconductor, with all that such implies.

It is also incredibly ironic that the South Korean scientists behind LK-99 used lead. Perhaps the ancient alchemists were right all along: lead can be transformed into gold.

Carlos Roa is the Executive Editor of The National Interest.

Image: Shutterstock.

The country’s wealth is stolen or wasted as murder skyrockets.

The image of starving Africans may score propaganda points for the West, but Russia’s suspension of the deal arguably does more harm to wealthier countries.

Spiraling violence in the northeastern state takes cues from the ruling party’s majoritarianism.

A forever war in Ukraine comes with almost limitless possibilities to stifle dissent.

Silicon Valley’s congressman on how to reset the U.S.-China relationship.

On peut conter de cent manières les mille histoires qui façonnent le Proche-Orient. L'écrivain peut partir d'une idée et confronter son ingénuité au réel qu'il explore ou aux conteurs qu'il croise : il ne manquera pas alors de tomber très vite sur sa première histoire. En voici une, captée à l'avant (...) / Proche-Orient, Liban, Égypte, Littérature, Société, Histoire - 2018/06

A spate of diplomatic deals won’t end conflict.