Diplomacy & Crisis News

AMLO and the toll of authoritarian populism.

The U.S.-led order isn’t in decline.

A diplomat defects from the Kremlin.

The Kremlin won’t go down without a fight.

What China’s ideologue in chief really believes.

According to the statement signed between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia on November 10, 2020, the Armenians were supposed to return the city of Lachin to Azerbaijan within three years. The reason why Lachin was returned so late was that the Armenians living in Khankendi used the road through Lachin. Azerbaijan made an alternative route within 1 year and 8 months and demanded from the Republic of Armenia to evacuate the city of Lachin and return it to the Azerbaijani side on August 5.

However, the Armenians requested more time from Azerbaijan and stated that the city will be evacuated on August 25. Thus, on August 26, 2022, the Armenians left the city of Lachin and the Azerbaijani army entered the area. On September 21, Ilham Aliyev visited the city of Lachin and waved the flag of Azerbaijan on the central street in the center of the city of Lachin.

In response to Armenia’s claim that Azerbaijan is waging war on Armenian lands, Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan has not violated the borders of any state, as there has been no demarcation of borders between the two countries: “If Armenia claims this, then let it show its borders.  Let me reiterate that we are ready for discussions and are treating the work of the Azerbaijan-Armenia commissions with great responsibility. We have collected all the maps. I want to say once again that we have all the maps, including those from the 19th century, the 20th century and even earlier, and those maps clearly show who is located on which land. Therefore, no-one can accuse us in the absence of demarcation.”

Speaking in the city of Lachin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that Armenia committed atrocities in Lachin as well as in other areas of Karabakh, placed about 1,400 mines in Lachin, and destroyed historical and religious monuments even after the end of the war. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan offered to sign a peace agreement with Armenia as soon as the war ended, he noted that the other side not only refused to sign the peace agreement, but also made new provocations.

In his speech, Aliyev also touched on the activities of international organizations such as the UN Security Council and the OSCE Minsk Group, which supported the Armenian side during the thirty years of Armenian occupation of the area in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions and did not impose any sanctions against it.

At the end of his speech, Ilham Aliyev, who spoke about the work done and to be done in Lachin, noted that the construction of the Gubadli-Lachin railway will soon begin in Lachin. Construction of 12 tunnels in the distance from Murov Mountain to Lachin city is also on the list of tasks to be done. In order to prevent problems related to electricity, the construction of Gülabird Hydropower Station in Lachin is also planned.

This speech was made at a time when Azerbaijan’s embassy in France was attacked.  Associate Professor Maxime Gauin noted that there were two attacks, “one on the embassy and one on the Azerbaijani cultural center.  The one against the embassy was an unauthorized demonstration organized by the Dashnaks and the Parisian police did nothing.   They were not aware.   They did not know there was a demonstration that was there because the police did not receive any intelligence regarding the project.”

He continued, “Then, there was a conference on the destruction of Azerbaijani cultural heritage in Yerevan, which was protested by Charjoum.   These people considered the Dashnaks too soft and left them to be their own group.   There, the police knew about the protest and arrived before the Armenians.  They were not allowed to approach the building.    But they were there, nevertheless.”

According to Gauin,    “It reminds me of the situation 50 years ago.  In France in the 1970’s, it was the Dashnak youth who incited the leadership to incite terrorism.   There were also people who left the party who felt it was not revolutionary enough.  These people became the branch of ASALA in France.   In the Facebook page of Charjoum, they make references to ASALA.   People must be careful in monitoring them as the worst may emerge from these persons.”  

Dans une circonscription populaire comme celle de Sarcelles, 68 % des électeurs se sont abstenus lors des élections législatives françaises de juin dernier. Depuis longtemps, la politique, avec ses projets concurrents, a été remplacée par un clientélisme municipal teinté d'hostilité envers les (...) / France, Élections, Immigrés, Inégalités, Islam, Jeunes, Judaïsme, Parti politique, Police, Politique, Religion, Urbanisme, Ville, Banlieue, Corruption - 2017/08

Au milieu de la « décennie noire » des années 1990, plusieurs massacres de population ont endeuillé l'Algérie, déjà dévastée par les affrontements entre forces de l'ordre et groupes islamistes armés. Les lois d'amnistie et la volonté des autorités d'étouffer le souvenir de ces épisodes sanglants empêchent (...) / Algérie, Armée, Guérilla, Islam, Religion, Spiritualité, Terrorisme, Violence, Fondamentalisme, Maghreb, Répression, Guerre civile - 2017/08

Washington doit exercer des pressions sur Israël pour obtenir l'évacuation des villes palestiniennes, sinon c'est la crédibilité des Etats-Unis dans le monde arabe qui serait menacée : tels sont, en substance, les propos que le prince héritier saoudien Abdallah a tenus au président George W. Bush (...) / Arabie saoudite, Golfe, Éducation, Femmes, Islam, Religion - 2002/05

Le respect par l'Iran de l'accord sur la non-prolifération nucléaire entraîne progressivement la levée des sanctions internationales. L'ouverture des échanges et ses répercussions politiques influeront sur les élections législatives prévues fin février. Attentives aux changements, les femmes occupent une (...) / Iran, Éducation, Femmes, Islam, Mutation, Politique, Religion, Société - 2016/02

/ Amérique latine, Chili, Urbanisme, Ville - Amérique du Sud / Amérique latine, Chili, Urbanisme, Ville - Amérique du Sud

/ Chili, Inégalités, Pauvreté, Économie, Capitalisme, Amérique latine - Amérique du Sud / Chili, Inégalités, Pauvreté, Économie, Capitalisme, Amérique latine - Amérique du Sud

/ Cuivre, Matières premières, Monde - Amérique du Sud / Cuivre, Matières premières, Monde - Amérique du Sud

The prevalence of violent extremism in the United States poses an increasing threat on national security. Historically, policymakers have focused counterterrorism efforts on external Islamic terror threats. A shift in focus is necessary to address the alarming rise of far-right ideology within the United States following the presidency of Donald Trump. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, racially motivated extremism and anti-government extremism pose two of the biggest domestic threats to U.S. national security. In 2020, white supremacists conducted 67% of all terror plots in the United States.[1] Anti-authority extremists carried out an additional 20%. Popular culture often views Islamic terrorists as the main threat, but Salafi-jihadist groups carried out a meager 7% of attacks in 2020.[2]

White supremacy and anti-government dialogue made its way into mainstream platforms alongside the populist rise of Donald Trump. His 2016 campaign, and subsequent presidency, capitalized on undercurrents of racial resentment. Trump’s focus on “political incorrectness” allowed fringe ideologies to rise to the surface.[3] However, this far-right extremism is not a new phenomenon. Racial hatred has remained a pervasive and damaging issue in America for hundreds of years. With each new decade, this hatred takes on a different shape. Today, far-right extremists fear tactics focused on xenophobia and racism to recruit new members from vulnerable populations.

            In June of 2021, President Biden released the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Extremism. The 32-page report defines domestic extremism as “activities that involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of criminal laws in the US” and are intended to “intimidate or coerce a civilian population [or] influence … a government.”[4] It identifies racially-motivated extremism and anti-authority extremism as the two main domestic terror threats. The report details the extent of the problem, identifies a strategy organized around four main pillars, and then expands on those pillars through a series of strategic goals.

            The National Strategy for Countering Domestic Extremism takes a broad yet multi-faceted approach to counter-extremism policy. It calls for improved research, increased resources dedicated to preventing recruitment, and a more legislative dimension to addressing domestic terrorism. It’s strengths lie with its multi-level approach to information sharing within government institutions, its focus on the vulnerability of veterans to recruitment, and its recognition of the need to address the shifting landscape of domestic threats. However, it faces four major challenges. First, the entire strategy lacks specificity. Throughout an evaluation of the strategy, a lack of specificity plagues nearly every pillar. The first pillar fails to account for the contextual differences between communities. The second pillar needs to better explain how prevention measures will be balanced with respect for civil liberties. The third pillar focuses on legislative reforms that would require a more precise definition of domestic terrorism, which the U.S. government currently lacks. This lack of specificity will not only make the strategy difficult to implement, but it will also make it less consumable for the general public.

The second major challenge for the strategy is that it does not focus heavily enough on addressing the drivers for far-right extremism. Biden’s administration has a firm grasp on the ideology behind the movement, but it fails to tackle the conditions that leave people vulnerable to these ideologies. It addresses the proliferation of social media, which is a major contributor, but lacks programs to tackle systemic issues like poverty, low access to quality education, and xenophobia.

            The third major challenge facing this strategy is its failure to address the gendered dynamics of violent extremism. The approach to countering these ideologies requires a holistic understanding of how far-right extremism impacts men and women differently. Far-right groups appeal to women in unique ways, and understanding all recruitment narratives is crucial for employing CVE policy. Women play a key role in the recruitment of new members, the spread of propaganda, and the organization of far-right groups. They made up 14% of arrests from the capital riots of January 6, 2021.[5] The National Strategy for Countering Domestic Extremism makes no mention of the gendered dynamics of far-right extremism. Biden’s strategy needs an additional pillar solely focused on addressing the recruitment of women.

            The fourth major challenge is the strategy’s failure to address the youth dynamics of violent extremism. Approximately 32% of the U.S. population is below the age of 25. This age group is a sprawling base from which far-right groups attempt to recruit. Young people’s “real or perceived disengagement and marginalization” make them highly vulnerable to recruitment narratives. With expanding access to social media platforms, marginalized youths on the internet are easy targets for far-right. Biden’s plan addresses the prominent role of social media in recruitment, but it needs a tighter focus on the vulnerability of young people.

[1] Jones, Seth. 2020. “The War Comes Home: The Evolution of Domestic Terrorism in the United States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies. October 22, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/war-comes-home-evolution-domestic-terrorism-united-states.

[2] Jones, Seth. 2020. “The War Comes Home.” Center for Strategic and International Studies.

[3]“Watch How Trump’s War on ‘Political Correctness’ Turned into Hate Speech.” Vanity Fair. August 9, 2016. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/donald-trump-political-incorrectness.

[4] “The National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism.” WhiteHouse.Gov. June2021: pg. 8. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/National-Strategy-for-Countering-Domestic-Terrorism.pdf.

[5] Rubin, Olivia, and Will Steakin. 2021. “‘We Did Our Part’: The Overlooked Role Women Played in the Capitol Riot.” ABC News. April 8, 2021. https://abcnews.go.com/US/part-overlooked-role-women-played-capitol-riot/story?id=76924779.

/ Chili, Climat, Ville, Environnement, Urbanisme - Amérique du Sud / Chili, Climat, Ville, Environnement, Urbanisme - Amérique du Sud

The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream of weapons and equipment from the United States and NATO partners- More specific accounting of the tactical maneuvering is being done by The Institute for the Study of War.

These successes, though important, do not suggest that the war is on the verge of coming to an end. Russian forces still occupy some 34,750 square miles of sovereign Ukrainian territory. More than that, despite prior public statements that Russia was conducting its “special military operation” in order to liberate the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, Russian collaborators in those regions have promoted referendums are expected to be held between September 23rd and 27th that aimed at integrating those regions with Russia. These machinations have coincided with a (domestically very unpopular) plan to mobilize some additional 300,000 reservists and conscripts. 

These referendums, if passed, would provide Russia with the manufactured casus belli that Ukraine and NATO forces are carrying out attacks within Russian territory, and might therefore allow for a more obvious mobilization effort. Former Russian President Damitri Medvedev is quoted as saying that the referendums were important for their contributions to the, “systematic defense” of Russian territory, and continued that, “an encroachment on Russian territory is a crime.”

Of course, Mr Medvedev is correct- encroachment on Russian territory is a crime. So too is the invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory. Similarly, for all of the reasons that the Ukrainian government should have worked more closely with French and German mediators to follow through on the terms of the Minsk Protocols, the Russian government cannot, without international condemnation, ignore its ethical and legal responsibility to prevent the spread of dishonest information based upon the results of a obviously illegitimate vote. 

While the United States cannot prevent Russian state-media’s attempts at double-speak, American leadership can do much to clarify its own messaging.

In the face of an increasingly multi-polar world (despite Russia’s displayed incompetence and what it might imply about China’s true capacity) the United States and its allies have a delicate line to balance. Little can be done to quell the endless rumors about what was or was not agreed to between Secretary of State James Baker and Mikhail Gorbachev about the future of NATO expansion in 1990- this is no excuse for a lack of clarity about NATO’s potential expansion and mission moving forward.

Similarly, there should be no denying that honest calls for nationhood should be facilitated through a legitimate democratic process. There should also be no denying that the long recognized corruption that marred the Ukrainian government was not somehow cleaned out with the onset of Russia’s attempted invasion. Pretending otherwise makes the United States and its allies appear dishonest and weakens our bargaining positions on other key international issues.

Even more than these things, however, there should be no credible doubt that the humanitarian catastrophe brought on by the Kremlin’s aggression is not in any way justified by Ukraine’s governance issues or slowness in adhering to the Minsk Protocols. International bodies and co-signatories provide a far more effective and ethical way of resolving disputes, and the integrity of those bodies and treaties is dependent on the good-faith and trust of their participants. As such, it is important that the United States and its allies participate in good faith- even in the face of an obviously bad actor like Vladmir Putin.

While it is important that we take the time to recognize, and celebrate, the success of Ukraine’s Army and partisan forces in resisting Russian aggression, it would be long sighted to limit American and NATO armed support to those which can be used for substantively defensive purposes. Towards this end, NATO members should continue to provide the Javelin anti-tank systems and Byractar drones that have proven so effective in slowing the advance of Russian armored columns. Mobile artillery units with a range that surpass their Russian equivalents like the M142 HIMARS have played a dramatic role in disrupting Russian cross-river movements, but ensuring that these NATO provided weapons are not used to strike targets within legitimate Russian territory could prove pivotal in preventing further escalation of the conflict. Similarly, it should not be taken for granted that Ukraine be extended NATO membership in the aftermath of the conflict- such an action would give credence to the idea that the United States resisted Russia’s obvious attempts at empire largely for the sake of extending its own more subtle empire.

In addition to these direct efforts, the United States and its partners should look for non-military means of strengthening their hand against bad actors into the future. These efforts might range from promoting election integrity domestically to diversifying energy sourcing. They most certainly include pushing for increased public awareness about key foreign policy issues and the continued re-staffing of the diplomatic corps as a way of peacefully promoting the cause of Democracy and Liberalism beyond our borders.

While the conflict in Ukraine will likely rage on for months to come, there is some real chance that historians will consider the push that took place in mid-September to represent the turning point of the conflict. In the event that this is true, the United States, Ukraine, and all other concerned parties should do just as much to facilitate a successful peace as they will certainly do to bring about an end to the war.

—

Peter Scaturro is the Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association. The opinions expressed here are his, and not necessarily those of the Association.

Alors que le Mozambique, secoué par des scandales, fragilisé par la chute du prix des matières premières, traverse l'une des plus graves crises de son histoire, la mort mystérieuse du président Samora Machel, survenue en 1986, hante le débat public. Avec le temps, les langues se délient ; la vérité (...) / Afrique, Afrique australe, Afrique du Sud, France, Russie, URSS, Zimbabwe, Armée, Personnalités, Mozambique, Aéronautique, Mouvement de libération - 2017/08

Fière de son image de tolérance, l'Indonésie doit affronter un double péril : la corruption et la montée de l'intégrisme. Longtemps ignoré, l'islam rigoriste, importé principalement d'Arabie saoudite, fait des ravages. Si le dirigeant de la plus puissante milice fondamentaliste, menacé d'arrestation, a (...) / Asie, Asie du Sud-Est, Indonésie, Femmes, Inégalités, Islam, Jeunes, Mutation, Parti politique, Politique, Religion, Spiritualité, Fondamentalisme - 2017/08

À en croire M. Donald Trump, la frontière américano-mexicaine serait une passoire que seule la construction d'un « grand et beau mur », long de 3 200 kilomètres, pourrait obstruer. Les États-Unis n'ont pourtant pas attendu leur nouveau président pour traquer les migrants clandestins. En Arizona, le (...) / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Mexique, Narcotrafic, Immigrés, Migrations, Pauvreté, Police, Technologie, Travail, Ville, Amérique du Nord, Frontières - 2017/08

Il y a quelque deux mille cinq cents ans, sous ce même ciel qui aujourd'hui voit son pays vendu à la découpe, un poète grec truculent et irrévérencieux attendait anxieusement de découvrir l'accueil réservé à ses « Oiseaux » : Aristophane, né dans un siècle à la fois brillant et belliqueux. / Grèce, Art, (...) / Grèce, Art, Conflit, Culture, Histoire, Idées, Pacifisme, Théâtre - 2017/08