Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist im Jahr 2021 ersten Schätzungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes zufolge um 2,7 Prozent gewachsen. Dazu ein Statement von Simon Junker, stellvertretender Leiter der Abteilung Konjunkturpolitik am Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin):
Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist 2021 um 2,7 Prozent gewachsen und hat damit gut die Hälfte des vorangegangenen Einbruchs wettgemacht. Die Erholung verläuft aber weiterhin zäh wird durch erneute Coronawellen erschwert. Diese stören das Angebot, etwa von kontaktintensiven Dienstleistern, aber auch im internationalen Handel. In der Folge hemmen weltweit Knappheiten die Produktion und befeuern die Inflation. Diese Probleme begleiten uns auch in diesem Jahr - solange, bis die Pandemie nachhaltig eingedämmt wird. Gelingt dies etwa ab dem Frühsommer und lassen in dem Zuge die Knappheiten merklich nach, profitieren die Dienstleister von einer regen Nachfrage und die Industrie wird die gut gefüllten Auftragsbücher abarbeiten und die Produktion merklich ausweiten.Die EU und Deutschland haben sich in der Klimapolitik ambitionierte Ziele gesetzt. Deswegen schauen sie heute mit anderen Augen auf die Energiesituation im östlichen Mittelmeerraum als noch vor wenigen Jahren. Mit den Planungen für die Energiewende verlieren die dortigen Erdgasvorkommen an Relevanz. Stattdessen gewinnt die Region als potentieller energiewirtschaftlicher Transit- und Verbindungsraum an Bedeutung. Um den erhöhten Bedarf an Ökostrom in Europa zu decken, könnten das europäische, das afrikanische und das nahöstliche Stromnetz über den östlichen Mittelmeerraum miteinander verbunden werden. Gleichzeitig hat die Region das Potential, die EU beim Aufbau ihrer Wasserstoffwirtschaft zu unterstützen. Eine solche energiewirtschaftliche Neukartierung des östlichen Mittelmeers eröffnet den Anrainerstaaten neue ökonomische Perspektiven und politische Handlungsspielräume. Die Konflikte um exklusive maritime Wirtschaftszonen zwischen den beiden Bevölkerungsgruppen auf Zypern sowie zwischen Griechenland und der Türkei verlören einen Großteil ihrer Dynamik. Allerdings besteht das Risiko, dass tiefsitzende Rivalitäten auch den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien und der Interkonnektivität im östlichen Mittelmeerraum obstruieren.
International climate negotiations at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow were surprisingly productive. The Glasgow Climate Pact adds new tasks to the already full climate agendas of the European Union and its member states. European policy makers will need to focus even more on limiting the long-term temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius and to secure adequate commitments and action by the biggest global greenhouse gas emitters – all before the next COP in Egypt (COP27) at the end of 2022. Climate financing also needs to be secured in a manner that generates trust on the part of the developing countries. Germany’s G7 presidency in 2022 will be crucial for accelerating international climate cooperation. The German government must also work to involve the G20 states and push to speed up adoption of the European Union’s Fit for 55 package.
jQuery(document).ready(function($){$("#isloaderfor-bzvwno").fadeOut(300, function () { $(".pagwrap-bzvwno").fadeIn(300);});}); Download the Report
On January 11th, IPI’s Women Peace and Security team hosted a virtual policy forum to launch the recently published policy paper, “From Female Engagement Teams to Engagement Platoons: The Evolution of Gendered Community Engagement in UN Peace Operations.”
This forum featured panelists who discussed the paper’s findings and policy recommendations for UN military decision makers and troop-contributing countries. Panelists considered the operational challenges, gendered assumptions and stereotypes that negatively impact the work of engagement teams and engagement platoons and gendered and racialized assumptions and stereotypes about host communities. The broad goal of the policy forum was to meaningfully discuss and develop a shared understanding of the evolution of gendered community engagement in UN peace operations.
This event and the related research are part of IPI’s Women in Peace Operations (WIPO) project, a multi-year initiative funded by the Government of Canada’s Elsie Initiative for Women in Peace Operations.
Opening Remarks:
Dr. Adam Lupel, IPI Vice President
Ms. Gwyn Kutz, Director-General of the Peace and Stabilization Operations Program, Global Affairs Canada
Speakers:
Gretchen Baldwin, Senior Policy Analyst at IPI’s Women Peace and Security Program
Col. Stephanie Tutton, Chief of the OMA Policy and Doctrine Team, United Nations Department of Peace Operations
Col. Gonzalo Mila, Adviser, Uruguayan Armed Forces
Lt. Yumae Amicone, Uruguayan Army
Moderator:
Dr. Phoebe Donnelly, Research Fellow and Head of IPI’s Women Peace and Security Program
The concept and implementation of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have evolved as DDR-related activities have increasingly occurred in environments where armed conflict is ongoing, no peace agreement has been signed, and armed groups designated as terrorist organizations (AGDTOs) are operating. In parallel, reintegration has increasingly been discussed in the UN counterterrorism architecture through the concept of prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration (PRR). The changing context has raised challenges related to reintegration, especially reintegration of former members of AGDTOs.
This policy paper analyzes the risks faced by individuals taking part in reintegration processes and by the communities they are reintegrating into. In particular, it analyzes how the designation of an armed group as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council or by a state impacts these risks while acknowledging that these risks largely depend on the broader context. The paper examines three case studies of current reintegration processes: (1) the process for reincorporating former combatants from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–People’s Army (FARC-EP); (2) the defector program for former members of al-Shabaab in Somalia; and (3) the reintegration process for individuals associated with Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin.
The paper concludes by recommending several steps the UN could take to help ensure that reintegration processes address protection risks, especially for former members of AGDTOs:
Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are taking steps to mend their ties. The UAE, it seems, is eager to refashion its image as a bridge-builder in regional politics and hedge its options in the face of the US downsizing its regional security commitments in the Middle East. Turkey, on its end, is eager to get out of the political/ideological box that it has found itself in since the onset of the Arab Uprisings and to lessen the economic cost of its geopolitical activism in the time of a deepening economic crisis at home. Though economic interests can bring the two countries closer, geopolitics can just as easily drive them apart. In spite of a seeming thaw, major sources of tension in these relations remain.
The first euro banknotes and coins came into circulation 20 years ago. Although the exchange rates of almost all participating countries had already been fixed two years earlier, only the introduction of the euro marked Europe’s irreversible economic integration. For after the creation of single monetary policy and the introduction of hundreds of tonnes of euro cash, a return to national currencies would have ended in disaster for the European Union (EU) and its member states.
The global financial crisis and the euro crisis have shown that the single market would not function without the common currency, the euro – one reason being exchange rate differences. Even though the euro has not displaced the dollar from first place in the global monetary system, it protects the European economies from external shocks, that is, negative impacts from the global economy. Moreover, monetary integration has shown its advantages during the Corona crisis. Without the euro, some member states would not only face a demand and supply crisis, but also a sharp weakening of their currency, which could even lead to a currency crisis. This would make it extremely difficult to fight the pandemic and support jobs with public money. The citizens of the EU seem to appreciate the stabilising effect of the common currency: According to the May 2021 Eurobarometer survey, 80 per cent of respondents believe that the euro is good for the EU; 70 per cent believe that the euro is good for their own country. Moreover, joining the euro area is seen as attractive: Croatia will most likely join the euro area in 2023. Bulgaria also aspires to join. Due to dwindling confidence in the currencies of Poland and Hungary, the introduction of the euro could become a realistic scenario in the event of a change of governments in these countries.
A long list of reforms and little room for compromiseDespite these developments, many of the euro area’s problems remain unresolved 20 years after the currency changeover. The fundamental dilemma is between risk sharing versus risk elimination. It is a question of how many more structural reforms individual member states need to undertake before deeper integration of the euro area, which implies greater risk sharing among member states, can take place. In the banking sector, for example, the issue is to improve the financial health of banks, that is, among other measures to increase their capitalisation and reduce the level of non-performing loans before a common deposit insurance scheme can be created.
A second problem is the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy. Currently, the European Central Bank is the main stabiliser of the euro area public debt, which increased significantly as a result of the pandemic, and it will remain so by reinvesting its holdings of government bonds at least until 2024. However, an alternative solution is needed to stabilise the euro area debt market. Joint debt guarantees, as recently proposed by France and Italy, must be combined with incentives to modernise the economies, especially of the southern euro are countries. In this context, it is important to keep in mind the limits of fiscal policy, which is currently too often seen as the magic cure for all economic policy problems. Linked to fiscal policy are the questions of how many rules and how much flexibility are needed in the euro area. Heated discussions are to be expected this year on the corresponding changes to the fiscal rules. This is because there is a great deal of mistrust between the countries in the north and south of the euro area, which is mainly due to the different performance levels of the economies and the different views on economic policy. The persistent inflation and the problems with the implementation of the NextGenerationEU stimulus package, which is supposed to cushion Corona-related damage to the economy and society, could exacerbate the disparities in economic performance and thus also the disagreements within the euro area.
The euro crisis has shown that turbulence in one member state can have fatal consequences for the entire currency area. In the coming years, however, the biggest challenge for the euro area will not be the situation in small member states such as Greece, but in the largest of them. The economies of Italy, France, and Germany, which account for almost 65 per cent of the euro area’s gross domestic product, are difficult to reform with their complex territorial structures and increasing political fragmentation. At the same time, these economies lack real convergence. A decisive factor for the further development of the euro currency project will be whether the transformation of their economic models succeeds under the influence of the digital revolution, the climate crisis, and demographic change.
This text was also published by fairobserver.com.