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La rédaction a le plaisir de vous offrir un second article du numéro d’automne 2016 de Politique étrangère : « Europe : Back to the Future », écrit par Guy Verhofstadt.

« Sans galvauder le mot, on peut affirmer que le référendum britannique du 23 juin dernier est un événement historique dont l’onde de choc se fera longtemps sentir. L’effet de sidération devra pourtant bien s’arrêter un jour pour voir la réalité en face : le Brexit a eu lieu et le Royaume-Uni va sortir à moyen terme de l’UE. Une issue logique après 43 ans d’un mariage raté entre la perfide Albion et le continent ? Après tout, n’avait-on pas consenti à David Cameron divers arrangements destinés à rassurer les Britanniques, déjà gavés de dérogations en tout genre, afin qu’ils votent Remain, comme une limitation des prestations sociales aux ressortissants de l’UE, jugés envahissants, et la préservation des intérêts financiers de la City ? Et ils ont quand même mal voté, ces ingrats d’Anglais !

Ce serait une explication simple et rassurante. En vérité, qui peut dire ce que donnerait un référendum en France sur l’appartenance à l’UE ? Lors du dernier exercice similaire, en 2005, sur la Constitution européenne, plusieurs lignes rouges avaient aussi été respectées : confirmation de l’« exception culturelle », pérennité du financement d’État des services publics, maintien de la PAC… On avait même vidé de sa substance la fameuse directrice Bolkestein sur la libéralisation des services, qui était alors en négociation, pour éviter d’agiter la peur du « plombier polonais ». On connaît le résultat.

Ainsi donc, rien n’y ferait : les peuples européens sont contre l’Europe. Alors autant fermer tout de suite les institutions et dissoudre le Parlement européen, plutôt que de perdre notre temps et l’argent du contribuable, comme disent les populistes et les europhobes. Moi, je ne suis pas d’accord. Je ne crois pas que les peuples européens soient contre l’Europe. Mais ce n’est pas en les appâtant avec des gadgets politiques avant une élection cruciale qu’on les intéressera à l’Europe. C’est en œuvrant à montrer sa nécessité. Or depuis 2008, l’Europe affronte une série de crises toutes plus graves les unes que les autres, sans que l’UE apparaisse utile pour les résoudre.

Une vingtaine de sommets « de la dernière chance » pour « sauver la Grèce » a accouché de trois plans d’aide successifs, dont les seuls résultats ont été d’appauvrir et d’endetter davantage les Grecs. Le comble étant qu’aujourd’hui l’avenir de la Grèce dans la zone euro n’est toujours pas assuré. Quant à la crise financière, l’Union bancaire qui devait y répondre est restée au milieu du gué, au moment où les banques sont fragilisées par le Brexit. Enfin, une guerre à nos portes, face à laquelle nous sommes désarmés diplomatiquement et militairement, a provoqué le départ de millions de réfugiés. La réponse a été d’ouvrir les frontières sans contrôle, puis de les fermer sans discernement, avant de sous-traiter le problème à la Turquie. Procrastination et incohérence sont les deux mamelles de la gouvernance européenne.

Repli sur le pré carré national

J’avais pris position avant le référendum, annonçant que Brexit ou non, il faudrait que l’Europe se réforme au lendemain du scrutin. Aujourd’hui, cette urgence apparaît criante. Sans attendre que la gentry dilettante qui règne à Londres nous notifie son départ, il est temps d’affronter ce débat en face et sans tabou. Le projet européen initial s’est peu à peu dissous dans une machinerie administrative et juridique rebutante, dans laquelle personne ne se retrouve, à part les initiés bruxellois. Peu nombreux sont ceux, ces derniers temps, qui assument l’Europe telle qu’elle est.

Pour ma part, j’ai réalisé la faillite de notre projet voilà plus de 15 ans lorsque j’ai siégé pour la première fois comme Premier ministre et même présidé le Conseil européen. Et je ne cesse depuis de plaider en faveur de changements profonds. Le tournant est intervenu en mars 2003, avec un seul sujet d’actualité : la prochaine guerre en Irak. L’Europe est alors divisée. Un grand classique. Le 16 mars, José-Manuel Barroso, alors Premier ministre portugais, convie aux Açores Georges W. Bush pour une réunion avec ses homologues britannique et espagnol Tony Blair et José-Manuel Aznar. Au Conseil européen des 22 et 23 mars, je demande à ce qu’on ait une discussion politique sur cette question. Elle durera une minute, le temps que le président français Jacques Chirac dise : « Hey Tony, ce n’est pas la peine d’en discuter, on n’est pas d’accord, non ? », et que le Premier ministre Tony Blair réponde : « Tu as raison. On n’est pas d’accord. » Voilà. C’était fini.

Quand on sait combien l’Europe paye encore au prix du sang les conséquences de ce conflit, je reste persuadé que j’avais mis le doigt sur « le » problème de l’UE : ses institutions ne font pas de politique. Et c’est la principale raison pour laquelle les citoyens, inquiets à juste titre par les désordres de la planète, s’en détournent et se replient sur leur pré carré national qui apparaît plus concret et protecteur.

Le problème de l’UE : ses institutions ne font pas de politique

La coopération intergouvernementale, concept diplomatique d’après-guerre qui constitue notre socle institutionnel, a trouvé la plénitude de son fonctionnement avec la Communauté économique européenne. Le champ était étroit : parvenir à créer un espace de libre circulation des marchandises. L’Acte unique a mâtiné cette coopération d’un peu de démocratie, en introduisant la codécision avec un Parlement européen jusqu’alors seulement consulté, et le vote à la majorité qualifiée au Conseil. C’est ainsi qu’on a pu bâtir en quelques années un marché intérieur normalisé, le plus grand et le plus ouvert du monde pour les produits, les services et les capitaux.

Pour la libre-circulation des personnes, ce fut déjà plus compliqué. Pendant quelques années, les États ont conservé la gestion de l’espace Schengen, avant de consentir à le communautariser avec le Traité d’Amsterdam au début des années 2000. Mais cette avancée demeure fragile, ainsi que l’a révélé la crise des réfugiés durant laquelle les frontières nationales se sont fermées les unes après les autres, tandis que les populistes réclamaient, et réclament toujours, la renationalisation des frontières intérieures, et que les États membres tergiversent pour créer un corps de gardes-frontières européens destiné à sécuriser nos frontières extérieures. La libre-circulation à travers notre immense et magnifique territoire est pourtant le principal acquis populaire de l’Europe, un bénéfice dont tous nos citoyens conviennent, comme on le voit désormais avec cette ruée de ressortissants Britanniques cherchant à obtenir un passeport de l’UE par crainte de perdre ce sésame, symbole de liberté. […] »

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S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

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Nadia Murad escaped ISIS and witnessed the Yazidi genocide. After escaping sex slavery by ISIS, the brave survivor turned activist became a voice for the thousands of Yazidi women who are still suffering under the Islamic State.

The primary use of an army has always been to give an opportunity to protect innocent people from the worst fate imaginable. Death was not even the worst option for many of these victims. Torture, rape, humiliation and targeting of children would be the catalyst for societies to decide to defend themselves from barbaric acts that would lead to their eventual extinction.

In 2016, these actions are occurring on a daily basis, and the media gives non-stop 24 hour coverage of the most mundane of first world problems. To focus on the absurd rather than give even a few seconds to the victims of what could be argued are the worst crimes to ever be committed against human beings is simply wrong, and goes against every fibre of any society. It is not unreasonable to think that all minorities will be wiped out of the Middle East very soon, simply because of our lack of interest.

America as a modern entity was forged out of the actions they took in the first half of the 20th century, helping what they saw as other moral democracies achieve goals that were for the betterment of humanity as a whole. They did not do this perfectly, sometimes taking on shadowy actions themselves against their enemies, claiming it was for the greater good. Often it was, but with the end of the Second World War and liberation of millions of enslaved peoples, America was not perfect, but it did show a moment of greatness in the epic of human civilization.

In 2016, genocide of the type never accepted before is being placated by our barons of information. The gross language of word play on the issue of genocide is nothing new for governments. I recall the regret of many world leaders in our modern era when discussing their actions during the genocide in the Balkans and especially Rwanda.

To speak away ones obligation as a powerful nation for political expediency requires a new label for a new type of crime. Anyone who studies law knows this will never occur, but the moral outrage should be there just the same. Earning political capital off the backs of those who perished for the sake of a few votes and a reduction of first world problems should be the number one reason a politician loses their employment and credibility. It is the first thing wrong in any society, and those individuals who make games of the embarrassments of humanity will never contribute anything positive to it.

In an article published last month “What Yazidi Refugees Fleeing ISIS Want Americans to Know”, the author documents what is occurring in what is likely the lowest point in our history of human civilization. The narrative begs American citizens, and to infer as well, their President, election candidates and the rest of the civilized world to not let them perish in the most horrible of ways, to stop their extinction and to remind us all that we are of the same human family. The end of those people will become a blight on the souls of all sensible individuals for the rest of human existence. While allowing their extinction to occur is not in violation of any law for those ignoring one of the worst genocides to have ever occurred, the eradication of one of the oldest societies is a tragedy.

This is the only issue that really matters, and if a candidate is willing to address it and end this holocaust then they deserve their mark on humanity. The statement: That occurred in the generation that occupied the era of 2016, is not yet written, but it is our contribution to our ancestors and our future children. That will be our legacy, and it has already begun.

The post At the Brink of Extinction, They are Asking for America’s Help appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Printing money: our only idea?

The recent G-20 summit occurred just a few weeks after a symposium of global central bankers, which put questions of the global economy in the spotlight. However, as only a few voices note, the discourse largely glosses over the extraordinarily distorted shape of global finance and the perils that raises.

In short, the global economy has been leaning on monetary policy—the printing of money by central banks —to avoid decline. The evidence is in an unprecedented incidence of negative interest rates, particularly for trillions of dollars worth of sovereign bonds.

As national authorities have limited their fiscal spending, out of political or budgetary constraints, central banks, which create money, have pumped it in to stimulate their economies. They have bought bonds for years, and in the process they have lowered the benchmark rates on financial instruments. As economies revive, they would normally be expected to raise rates, and sell the bonds back into the markets, but that hasn’t happened.

Thus, rates go to zero—and beyond, most notoriously in the EU but also in Japan. Even in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has signaled an intention to raise its rates for years, but has only announced one hike of the Fed Funds target rate, from zero to a quarter percent. The ECB has apparently bought bonds directly from corporate issuers, essentially making loans directly to those companies, for lack of bonds to buy elsewhere.

The knock-on effects distort economies further. Pension funds’ earnings on their assets do not cover payments they will owe future retirees. To find yield, they invest in increasingly risky bonds and stocks, apparently raising the market risks to pensioners’ savings to defray the risk of benefit-payment shortfalls. Meanwhile, firms are loading up on debt, which raises their risk profiles, a notable one being the now-defaulted Hanjin Shipping, which had a debt to equity ratio of about 6 to 1.

The image that emerges is one of stagnant economies burdened by debt, as the last tool for stimulus taps out. The prospects for growth remain bleak, while the dangers of debt increase every month that borrowers’ cash flows fail to grow. The picture is global: the EU is constrained by its economic crisis, plus Brexit, plus the questions around refugee flows; the U.S., despite its mild optimism, is still jittery; China is in a deep economic adjustment; the oil economies are subject to both the competitive effect of fracking and the weakness of global demand; and export-driven economies are left with no buyers.

Even were there a general disposition to acknowledge these risks, solutions would be difficult to craft. But both the central bankers and the G-20 leaders seem inclined to talk around this scenario, though it seems implicitly understood.

Fear that was known but unaddressed while old practices continued marked the geopolitics of 1914 and the financial markets in 2007-8. Anyone in finance during the latter period may remember risk assessments that concluded with “… if that scenario happens, this deal will be the least of our problems.” On top of the risks in place and the disinclination to fix them, we now also know that nightmares can come true.

There are those who say that one never knows where growth originates, and all we can do is muddle along. Certainly the known tools for stimulating growth seem to have been exhausted, and no one can see brilliant new policy or market methods. It would seem that there is a basic problem of somehow restoring what Keynes called the ‘animal spirits’ of at least a few of the major economies. But, in any economy one can name, the social, political, and/or psychological scene is mired in negativity. Perhaps muddling through will eventually lead to stabilization and a return of confidence. For that or for quicker answers, we might start praying.

The post See No Evil? Distorted Finance and Economic Risk appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.