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Diplomacy & Crisis News

Congress Caves to Trump in Fight Over China’s ZTE

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 22:58
Lawmakers preparing a must-pass defense bill stripped out harsh penalties against the Chinese telecommunications firm after the White House intervened.

Welcome to the Next Deadly AIDS Pandemic

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 19:26
The world thought it had fought the HIV virus to a stalemate—but its strategy was flawed in ways that are only now becoming clear.

Miami se lasse de l'extrême droite cubaine

Le Monde Diplomatique - mer, 25/07/2018 - 18:12
Depuis les années 1960, l'extrême droite cubaine tient Miami. Grâce à l'énorme pouvoir économique que son capital de départ, son dynamisme et le coup de pouce que dix administrations américaines successives lui ont octroyé. Grâce aussi au contrôle des médias. / Amérique latine, États-Unis, États-Unis (...) / , , , , , , , - 2008/04

Villes et vides en Tunisie

Le Monde Diplomatique - mer, 25/07/2018 - 16:11
/ Région, Ville, Crise économique, Chômage, Tunisie - Afrique / , , , , - Afrique

Moscow and Beijing Have Tehran’s Back

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 16:10
Trump's Iran policies have left the country with no choice but to turn to Russia and China.

The World Order Is Starting to Crack

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 15:32
America's allies and adversaries are adapting to Donald Trump in ways that can't easily be reversed.

Smiles Won’t Get CEOs Far in China

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 13:42
Beijing sees business as politics, and multinationals need to adjust.

Trump’s Trade Wars Are Bad. They Could Soon Get a Lot Worse.

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 13:00
Possible auto tariffs weigh on Trump’s meeting with the European Commission president on Wednesday.

India should adopt Israel’s right of return policy

Foreign Policy Blogs - mer, 25/07/2018 - 12:30

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with the 10th President of Israel Reuven Rivlin and Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces Gadi Eizenkot.

The Hindus of Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan are being forced to flee to India but are not receiving Indian citizenship. The time has come for this to change.

Many Pakistani, Afghani and Bangladeshi Hindus living in India face a dire situation. Even though they share the same faith and culture as Hindus in India, they are not being granted Indian citizenship. Instead, they are being treated like stateless refugees. Furthermore, the Times of India recently reported that within the last three years, over 2,000 Pakistani Hindus who fled to India have been forced to return to Pakistan because they have been denied citizenship. According to the report, many of the returning Hindus have been forced to convert to Islam.

Pakistani dissident Natharam Bheel added in the Times of India: “Pakistani Hindus who are coming to India that are leaving everything in Pakistan are not getting anything here as well. They are coming here with the hope of leading a good life but eventually, they are losing all hope. Waiting period is getting longer. They are coming here on a religious visa and due to a lack of papers and documents, they are forced to go back.”

This is a great tragedy not only for the Pakistani Hindu community but also for the entire Hindu world and global civilization at large. Anyone who cares about minority rights in the greater Muslim world should be outraged. The time has come for this charade to come to an end! The Indian government should immediately adopt Israel’s right of return policy, so that oppressed Hindus in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other parts of the world will have a refuge to flee to.

The Hindus in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan are in a horrible bind and are in desperate need of such a refuge. According to Shipan Kumer Basu, President of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, many Muslims in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh claim that India is the country of the Hindus and that all Hindus should go there: “From a religious perspective, India is our holy land but if we go to India, we are not treated as equals. There we do not receive citizenship nor jobs so why should we leave our ancestral lands, property and relatives behind to live in India?” However, countless Hindus from Muslim countries have nevertheless gone to India because they were compelled to leave their homelands due to atrocities implemented by various Islamist individuals and groups, who are backed by the local government.

The BBC claims that Hindus in Pakistan are treated like second class citizens. According to the report, their children are forced to read the Quran in Pakistani schools and are often mocked due to their religious beliefs. In addition, the Tribune reported that a study analyzing Pakistani textbooks from grades 1-10 concluded that “Hindus are repeatedly described as extremists and eternal enemies of Islam whose culture and society is based on injustice and cruelty, while Islam delivers a message of peace and brotherhood, concepts portrayed as alien to the Hindu.” According to the Movement for Solidarity and Peace, around 1,000 Hindu and Christians girls in Pakistan are kidnapped, forcefully converted and married to Muslim men against their will every year.

Due to facing such indignities, the Hindu population in Pakistan has rapidly declined. According to the Diplomat, at the time of the partition of British India, Hindu’s constituted 15% of Pakistan’s population but today, less than 2% of the Pakistani population is Hindu. Furthermore, the report noted that every year about 5,000 Hindus leave Pakistan in order to avoid persecution. Basu reported that a similar trend is occurring among the Hindus of Afghanistan and Bangladesh, who also are systematically being ethnically cleansed from their ancestral homes.

The Hindus of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Many policy makers in the West do not care about their plight because they are not white, lack the possession of numerous natural resources and do not have the backing of rich oil producing states. Furthermore, their enemies aren’t Jewish so there is no predetermined bigotry against their enemies, which can lead to an international call for them to obtain the justice that they deserved. Meanwhile, with the rise of radical Islam in the Indian subcontinent, their status in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan is getting more perilous by the day. And so long as India does not offer them refuge just as Israel does for Jews from Muslim majority countries, the Hindus from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh won’t benefit from having a national homeland for all Hindus, where they can be treated with the dignity and respect that they deserve. Therefore, the time has come for India to stand up for its historic responsibility and to transform India into a national homeland for all Hindus.

The post India should adopt Israel’s right of return policy appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Du risque des failles de sécurité…

Politique étrangère (IFRI) - mer, 25/07/2018 - 09:00

>> Retrouvez l’article dont est extraite cette citation : « L’Union européenne et la lutte contre le terrorisme », écrit par Séverine Wernert dans le numéro d’été 2018 de Politique étrangère (n° 2/2018). <<

Zimbabwe&#039;s Upcoming Election Is a Political Charade

Foreign Affairs - mer, 25/07/2018 - 06:00
The Zimbabwean presidential election appears to be less an effort at restoring the voice of the country’s long-suffering citizenry than a charade aimed at the international community.

How Washington Can Prevent Midterm Election Interference

Foreign Affairs - mer, 25/07/2018 - 06:00
Social media companies will be best able to play a productive role in preventing midterm election interference when informed by the government’s latest, best understanding of what that interference could look like.

Islamic Leaders Have Nothing to Say About China’s Internment Camps for Muslims

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 04:23
Hundreds of thousands of Uighur have been detained without trial in China's western region of Xinjiang.

The One Thing Modern Voters Hate Most

Foreign Policy - mer, 25/07/2018 - 01:38
Charges of corruption are toppling leaders at a growing clip. That's a good thing for global politics.

Trump Is Poised to Do Irreparable Harm to World Trade

Foreign Policy - mar, 24/07/2018 - 22:29
Here’s what other countries can do to stop him.

Imran Khan Can’t Fix Pakistan’s Foreign Policy

Foreign Policy - mar, 24/07/2018 - 18:08
The fiery electoral front-runner will be hemmed in on all sides if he wins.

La Tunisie et les empires

Le Monde Diplomatique - mar, 24/07/2018 - 18:01
/ Frontières, Histoire, Tunisie, Afrique du Nord, Maghreb - Afrique / , , , , - Afrique

Beijing’s Big Brother Tech Needs African Faces

Foreign Policy - mar, 24/07/2018 - 16:39
Zimbabwe is signing up for China's surveillance state, but its citizens will pay the price.

Le Maghreb en chiffres

Le Monde Diplomatique - mar, 24/07/2018 - 16:00
/ Société, Internet, Éducation, Économie, Libye, Afrique du Nord - Afrique / , , , , , - Afrique

On Trump’s Decision to Withdraw From The Iran Deal

Foreign Policy Blogs - mar, 24/07/2018 - 12:30

Donald Trump’s message and views on Iran have been remarkably consistent throughout his time in the public sphere. Even immediately following the deal’s successful negotiation, Trump came out against it, hurling a line many would become very familiar with: “Never, ever, ever in my life have I seen any transaction as incompetently negotiated as our deal with Iran.” After being persuaded to comply with the terms of the deal in the short term, “hawkish” advisors Mike Pompeo (Secretary of State) and John R. Bolton (National Security Adviser) began wielding more influence in the White House. With less internal resistance stopping him, Trump was finally able to fulfill an old campaign promise and he withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in Early May.

The completion of the deal involved a long and arduous negotiation process. In the end, President Obama and US Secretary of State John Kerry were able to strike a deal with the Iranian government, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani, and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and five other countries (Russia, China, France, Germany, United Kingdom) to “ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful” in exchange for economic relief. Specifically, the deal, in its own words, would “produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance and energy.” Iran, on the other hand, agreed to a bevy of restrictions on their ability to enrich Uranium and obtain weapons grade Plutonium as well as gave international inspectors access to their nuclear sites. All reports indicated that Iran had been complying with the terms of the deal. In fact, the deal had other positive effects as well. Iran’s (slow) reintegration back into the Western world was certainly a factor in their more moderate foreign policy decisions. For example, Iran refrained from intervening in both Libya and Iraq following the signing of the deal. In fact, the Huffington Post reported that the government was actually encouraging diplomatic solutions to end the Libyan conflict.

Critics of the deal argued the United States was conceding too much economically for such a poor return from the Iranians. While those attacks are unfounded, as the deal without question significantly delayed Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon, they are also irrelevant. Trump’s withdrawal from the deal has created more detrimental impacts than even critics of the deal argued existed in the first place.

Part of the reason critics disapproved of the Iran deal was due to its front loaded nature. Essentially, Iran received many of the economic benefits it was promised before it completely fulfilled its end of the bargain. However, this very fact is one of the reasons why pulling out of the deal was especially miscalculated. Eric Lorber of the ForeignPolicy dot com reported in November of 2016 that “Iran [had] already received approximately $100 billion” in economic relief. The deal was lopsided when Trump pulled out because the United States had negotiated for long term benefits in stopping Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon. Trump never gave us the ability to see the benefits materialize. Abandoning the deal when Trump did provided Iran with significant economic concessions while only setting their nuclear program back two years.

Most notably, Trump made this decision on the heels of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. It is downright absurd that the Trump administration thought it would be a good idea to back out of one nuclear agreement right before it went and tried to negotiate another. In fact, I’d argue the only reason the North Koreans did not back out of the summit immediately is because they believed it would be an opportunity to extract concessions from the Americans like they have in the past. In fact, North Korea has violated eight agreements since 1994 while gaining “concessions [like] being removed from the U.S. list of regimes that sponsor terrorism, shipments of food and fuel, the promise of light water plutonium reactors and the removal of crippling economic sanctions.” Indeed, the 2018 negotiations ended with Trump agreeing to stop US military exercises with South Korea for almost nothing in return, a decision that seemingly surprised South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

The long term implications of this decision are incredibly severe. Iran now has two realistic options. First, it can pivot harder to Russia and China, solidifying their alliance with those two global powers and rely on them for economic aid, as they had before the deal. In the meantime, they would continue to develop their nuclear weapon capabilities. In fact, Iran’s relationship with China has tightened since Trump’s withdrawal. China has been eager to work with Iran, some hypothesize, because of the access the country would give to Middle Eastern markets. East Asia Forum reported in June that “an ability to rapidly traverse the Iranian plateau lies at the heart of Beijing’s geostrategic and economic ambitions in the 21st century.”

Iran’s second option is cracking under the economic pressure. A letter from the Trump administration admitted that they will aim to put “unprecedented financial pressure on the Iranian regime.” There is a scenario in which Iran returns to the table and agrees to a more favorable deal with the Trump administration to escape economic ruin. This outcome is certainly possible, with economic impacts in the country already being seen. But as was the case in North Korea and Iran, historically, economic sanctions hit the citizens the hardest while leaving high ranking government officials unaffected. The only real consequences will be to President Hassan Rouhani, whose pivot towards the West unquestionably backfired due to Trump’s election and who will inevitably be blamed for the country’s economic hardship. Furthermore, Trump’s antagonization of Iran makes it unlikely any member of the government wants to come to the table while Trump holds the oval office. Even more importantly, Trump’s hardline diplomacy tactics have already been undercut by European officials who promised to stay in the deal to their best of their abilities and tried to convince Trump not to enforce secondary sanctions (the administration declined to agree to that framework). Critically, Iran knows support of the JCPoA still exists.

The Trump administration has taken an incredible risk, hoping Iran’s hardliners will crack under the economic pressure. The far more likely outcome, however, is nuclear proliferation to strengthen Iran’s negotiating hand and a stronger alliance with Russia and China.

Nader Granmayeh is a senior at Horace Mann High School where he is the co-Student Body President. He is currently an intern with Foreign Policy Association blogs division and is working on Zephyr Teachout’s attorney general campaign.

The post On Trump’s Decision to Withdraw From The Iran Deal appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

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