Following the EU-UK summit last month, I’ve finally got my ducks in a row on trying to track the substance of what follows.
You’ll recall that apart from the Security & Defence Partnership, there was not a single definitive legal instrument. Instead, there was lots of language about ‘working towards’ things or ‘exploring possibilities’: all very nice, but not really enough in an era of questions about the depth of international commitments.
Hence the tracker. As I’ve noted in my Bluesky thread on this, I’m only tracking those elements that seem to produce a formal agreement between the parties: potentially the list could grow, but let’s wait and see.
Rob Francis has written that Commission mandates for SPS, ETS linkage and Youth Experience aren’t coming until the autumn of this year, so formal negotiations seem unlikely until the back end of 2025. Given that each of these could throw up a bunch of issues (such as how much the UK is prepared to accept EU rules, and how much this is going to cost in contributions), reaching an agreement on any of these by the time of next spring’s summit looks hopeful.
Hence the tracker covers the entire lifetime of this Parliament.
Of course, if polls continue to be as unclear as now, the shadow of a non-Labour government is liable to cast a shadow on any negotiations from about 2027 onwards (given the time it’ll take to conclude, ratify and implement any individual deals), so this is the best opportunity for both sides to nail things down and minimise the chance of new administrations making bold choices.
As for the rest of the list, I’ve seen nothing to indicate timelines. Even if most of it is highly technical, it’ll still need work and political attention, something that’s been in short supply so far.
So the big question is whether long-term incentives will outweigh short-term distraction.
PDF: https://bit.ly/UshGraphic141
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YouGov’s poll-of-polls showed Remain and Leave running neck and neck ahead of the EU referendum. On 26 May, Remain led with 46% to Leave’s 42%. But by 1 June, the two were tied at 44%.
Even on the eve of voting day, no one could confidently predict the outcome. Some polls gave Leave the edge; others put Remain just ahead.
A day earlier, or a day later, and the outcome could have flipped. That’s how precarious the decision was.
For most of Britain’s 43 years as an EU member, public opinion leaned against Brexit. Ipsos Mori polling in June 2015 showed a record 75% in favour of staying in the EU.
But in the turbulent months before the vote, millions shifted to Leave, swayed by a campaign later revealed to be influenced by Russian disinformation and targeted anti-migrant sentiment.
[Watch theRussianConnection.co.uk]
Yet there was another key factor: turnout. Nearly 13 million eligible voters stayed home. According to the first post-referendum poll (Ipsos/Newsnight, 29 June 2016), these non-voters leaned towards Remain by a 2:1 margin. If they had voted, the result might have swung the other way.
On top of that, millions directly affected by the result were excluded: Britons abroad for over 15 years, and EU citizens living, working, and paying taxes in the UK.
A single day’s vote, on a question so close and unresolved, should never be allowed to lock a country in for generations.
General elections happen every few years. Voters can correct past choices and change governments. But with Brexit, no such democratic correction has been allowed. Since the referendum, the UK has had three general elections. Yet there has been no opportunity to revisit Brexit – no further referendum, no fresh public mandate, no attempt to see whether the public has changed its mind.
That is not how a mature democracy should handle a decision of such scale and permanence. Especially when the original vote was so finely balanced, so easily swayable by time and circumstance, and clearly left the nation divided.
A democratic decision isn’t a one-day contract for eternity. It must allow room to adjust, revisit, and renew based on the evolving will of the people. Britain deserves another say – not because democracy was ignored in 2016, but because true democracy doesn’t stop.
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