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A világ minden országára egyformán kiterjedő, a mai fenyegetésekre megfelelő választ adó biztonsági rendszert kell létrehozni, amely nem a katonai tömbök logikáján nyugszik - jelentette ki az orosz államfő a moszkvai Vörös téren május 9-én, szombaton tartott jubileumi katonai díszszemlén.

Kilencvenedik születésnapján köszöntötték Soós Sándort, a Honvéd Férfikar nyugállományú énekesét és alapító karnagyát május 8-án, pénteken, Budapesten.

Chairman of Russia’s State Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs Alexei Pushkov met with senior French politicians in Paris. He claimed that relations between the two countries have significantly improved and promoted the idea of an alliance between Russia, France and Germany.

Brazília még idén szerződést kötne a Pancir-Sz1 légvédelmi komplexum megvásárlásáról. Az amerikai terjeszkedésre adott válaszként gomba-módra szaporodhatnak Dél-Amerikában az orosz haditechnikai eszközök.

All over the world, people are forgetting to call their mothers on this second Sunday of May. Get on that, if you live in one of the dozens of countries celebrating Mother’s Day on May 10 this year. In Brazil, Dia das Mães is an unusually big deal. Families gather for celebrations and meals. The retail sector sees a spike in business topped only by Christmas. And thousands of prisoners are released temporarily so that they can go home to visit the women who raised them.

Prisoners in Brazil who demonstrate good behavior and meet other requirements are allowed to take five breaks from prison per year: Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, Children’s Day, Christmas, and one additional, flexible day. During the Christmas furlough two years ago, 47,531 inmates across Brazil left prison on temporary release. Some 2,400 never bothered to return. The Department of Corrections in São Paulo did not respond immediately to questions regarding the size of this year’s mass furlough.

More than 550,000 Brazilians are behind bars — the fourth largest prison population in the world, after the United States, China, and Russia. By most measures, Brazil’s prisons are in horrid shape, plagued by severe overcrowding and rampant violence. In 2013, nearly 60 inmates were murdered — in a single prison. An investigation uncovered that gang leaders were systematically raping inmate’s wives during conjugal visits there as well. In another facility, three prisoners were beheaded during a riot. And beneath the searing horrors that make international headlines, ordinary prisoners face terrible miscarriages of justice, often waiting for years in overcrowded group cells just to stand trial. While spared some of the violence male inmates face, women prisoners also contend with harsh conditions of confinement and abusive treatment, according to Human Rights Watch.

Despite the high rate of escape — which could be reduced through electronic monitoring, according to InSight Crime — the furlough program has substantial benefits: It helps inmates remain engaged with their communities and families, and helps them reintegrate more easily after release. It also leads to a spike in lawbreaking: A 2015 report by the U.S. State Department Bureau of Diplomatic Security reported “notable increases” in crime during holidays Brazil — attributable in part to the “liberal system of prison furloughs.”

“Many people in Brazil believe that inmates must suffer, enduring hunger and depravity,” Euza Beloti, a psychologist, told the New York Times in March. “This thinking bolsters a system where prisoners return to society more violent than when they entered prison.”

The furlough system encourages a more progressive approach. And not all furloughs mark traditional, wholesome occasions like Mother’s Day. A new, experimental program has begun granting furloughs for another reason: Rituals deep in the jungle during which inmates consume ayahuasca, a powerful hallucinogen. “Each experience helps me communicate with my victim to beg for forgiveness,” Celmiro de Almeida, a homicide convict who has taken the drug nearly 20 times since going to prison, told the Times.

No word on how his mom feels about this method of rehabilitation. Call your mother!

Mario Tama/Getty Images

Comme c'est souvent le cas chez Airbus, les équipes d'essais en vol sont formés d'anciens militaires
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Soldiers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) practiced for some 10 hours daily in preparation for the military parade held on the Victory Day in Moscow's Red Square to honor the memory of those who fought in the war against fascism.

La presse espagnole a déjà diffusé ce qu'elle présente comme les derniers messages livrés par
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Juncker et Cameron au sommet du 19 mars (crédit : Conseil de l’UE)

(BRUXELLES2) Le président Juncker a adressé un signe amical vendredi (8 mai) à David Cameron après l’avoir félicité pour sa victoire aux législatives. « I stand ready to work with you to strike a fair deal for the United Kingdom in the EU and look forward to your ideas and proposals in this regard » autrement dit : « Je suis prêt à travailler avec vous pour trouver un accord équitable pour le Royaume-Uni dans l’UE et nous nous réjouissons de vos idées et des propositions sur ce sujet ». Ce qui ouvre la porte à une négociation accommodante. Peu avant cette déclaration, lors de l’échange quotidien de la presse avec le porte-parole, nous en avions eu les pistes de négociation possibles.

Intransigeant sur le principe…

A la question de savoir si la libre circulation des personnes comme les autres libertés fondamentales (marchandises, services, capitaux) était négociable, la réponse a fusé, martiale, intransigeante. « Les quatre libertés restent non négociables. » Mais quand on cherche à en savoir plus, à creuser, vouloir préciser les lignes rouges ou les points de négociation (ce qui était le sens de ma question de suivi, le ton change.

Accommodant sur l’application

On s’aperçoit que, même à l’intérieur des 4 libertés, en particulier pour la libre circulation des personnes, il y a des marges de négociation qui pourraient rencontrer l’intérêt du Royaume-Uni. « Oui — a-t-il répondu —, il y a des zones grises, des points qui méritent éclaircissement (notamment pour le cas de l’aide sociale ou de la libre circulation des chômeurs). Ce n’est pas une nouveauté. Car l’abus de liberté est autre chose. » Or, on sait que c’est là où cela coince : le droit de séjour des personnes qui se retrouvent privées d’emploi ou au chômage.

Essai de ruse

En fait, la Commission louvoie, essaie de ruser. Mais le message délivré reste un peu confus. Londres qui bénéfice déjà d’un rabais de cotisation, a négocié une exonération à la Charte des droits fondamentaux, ne participe ni à certaines politiques (Euro, Schengen, Coopération policière), ni à certaines charges (sa participation à la politique de défense est minime) mais par contre veut participer à toutes les décisions bénéficierait encore d’autres exonérations.

Deux poids, deux mesures

Plus que jamais, avec le Royaume-Uni, on semble en face d’un « deux poids, deux mesures ». Pour les Etats qui veulent rester dans l’Union, c’est l’application des règles, de toutes les règles. Pour ceux qui disent : retenez-moi sinon je pars. Alors, là on dit : « négocions, c’est une bonne idée, pourquoi pas, hein, que voulez-vous ? Un petit rabais de plus ? une exception de plus ? Un calin et une jolie histoire pour vous border le soir, le petit déjeuner servi au lit le matin, tous les jours, le beurre, l’argent du beurre, la crémière et le potage, allez, soyons généreux, c’est normal, vous êtes le Royaume-Uni… » Non soyons sérieux. Plus l’Europe se couchera, fera la danse du ventre devant David Cameron et Londres, plus les Britanniques exigeront de l’Europe, sans renoncer à aucun de leurs privilèges. Et il n’est pas dit au final qu’ils ne rejetteront pas la proposition, juste pour pouvoir exiger davantage encore que ce que nous aurons octroyer au départ.

About 12 million people have participated Saturday in the "Immortal Regiment" march throughout Russia.

(BRUXELLES2) Est-ce un véritable conflit qui est en passe de renaître en Macédoine (ex république Yougoslave / Fyrom) ? Ou un nouveau soubresaut politique d’un pays qui n’arrive pas à la maturation de la démocratie (*) ? Quoi qu’il en soit, l’Europe qui avait son attention concentrée sur une série d’autres régions du monde va devoir se réintéresser (un peu) aux Balkans. Car la situation reste confuse. Et il n’est pas exclu qu’on soit face à une tentative de manipulation du pouvoir.

Plusieurs tués et blessés dans les forces de l’ordre et parmi les assaillants

5 policiers des unités spéciales et unités de déploiement rapide ont été tués ce samedi (9 mai), et 30 autres blessés dans une action menée contre un « groupe armé venu d’un pays voisin » à Kumanovo, ville albanophone du nord du pays, proche de la frontière de Serbie, a indiqué un communiqué du ministère qui donnait les noms des policiers tués. « Informé, le matin, le ministère de l’intérieur a entrepris de neutraliser (ce) groupe terroriste. Le groupe a fini par être vaincu après 18h, un premier élément de 20 personnes a quitté les maisons pour se rendre. » La situation devient ensuite confuse. « Un groupe a refusé de se rendre sans condition et continué les tirs. C’est durant cette période que les policiers ont été tués. » (NB : il n’est pas du tout exclu qu’on soit en présence également de tirs « amis »).

(Maj) Un bilan revu dans les jours suivants, le nombre total de victimes s’éléverait à 22 : 8 policiers et 14 « terroristes » selon la dénomination du ministère macédonien de l’intérieur.

La préoccupation de l’Union européenne

Le commissaire européen Johannes Hahn, en charge du Voisinage, a réagi rapidement se montrant « préoccupé par la situation qui se déroule dans la région de Kumanovo. Je demande instamment aux autorités et à tous les dirigeants politiques et communautaires à coopérer, pour rétablir le calme et enquêter pleinement sur les événements de manière objective et transparente dans le respect du droit. » Il a appelé « tous les acteurs à la plus grande retenue. Toute nouvelle escalade doit être évitée, au moins dans l’intérêt de la stabilité générale dans le pays. »

(Maj) Lundi, répondant à des questions de journalistes, Johannes Hahn a été plus loin. « Cette attaque ne peut pas et ne doit se distraire de la situation interne en FYROM » a-t-il indiqué lançant un appel au gouvernement comme à l’opposition à rester engager dans la négociation. Cet évènement « ne doit pas être une opportunité de quitter la table des négociations. (…) Ce ne doit pas être l’occasion de compliquer encore la situation en attisant les tensions ethniques. »

(NGV)

(*) Une série d’écoutes sur des responsables politiques, journalistes et autres personnes a été révélée par l’opposition, il y a quelques semaines.

(Maj) lun 11 mai, révision du bilan et déclaration supplémentaire du commissaire Hahn

WARSAW — On Feb. 14, Magdalena Ogórek, a left-wing candidate in Poland’s presidential race, said if she were elected, she “would pick up the phone to call the Russian president” to normalize relations between Moscow and Warsaw. As it happens, it’s an unlikely scenario: The 36-year-old historian and TV personality is polling just 3 percent. But her comment sparked the question every candidate has now had to think about in the run up to the May 10 presidential election: Would you call Vladimir Putin?

The incumbent, President Bronislaw Komorowski, dismissed it outright. “If someone thinks that peace in Europe depends on a phone call, then they’re a bit out of touch with reality,” he said in a television interview. But that didn’t stop his main rival, Andrzej Duda, from releasing a campaign video showing a snoring Komorowski being woken in the night to take a phone call from Moscow. The clip ends with the words: “Do you want to continue worrying who will answer the phone?”

Foreign policy concerns — far beyond phone calls to the Kremlin — have been more prominent in this Polish election than previous ones, says Marcin Zaborowski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). According to a recent poll, Poles consider security the most important topic in the presidential campaign. The spotlight has been on the conflict in Ukraine and its implications for Poland and the region.

Eleven candidates, ranging from anti-clerical left to the monarchist far-right, are running for president. But there is a broad consensus between the two main candidates, Komorowski and Duda: Poland must take a hard line toward Russia and keep up support for the embattled government in Kiev, acting as its advocate in the European Union.

Where there is discord is over the details. “Disagreements tend to focus on who is the most competent to achieve those objectives and the best way to achieve them,” says Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor at the University of Sussex, who writes a blog on Polish politics. Komorowski wants Poland in the “European mainstream,” working closely with Germany and others. In contrast, Duda is calling for a more independent Polish foreign policy that steers its Western allies and not the other way around, Szczerbiak adds.

Komorowski, who served as defense minister from 2000 to 2001 and, as president, serves as the commander-in-chief of the Polish Armed Forces, has presented himself as the only candidate capable of guaranteeing Poland’s security. NATO and its eastern flank need to be strengthened, he says. And he’s clear that Poland should take its own defense seriously. He recently announced two major arms purchases — Raytheon Patriot missiles from the United States, and 50 French Airbus Group helicopters — as part of Poland’s program to modernize its army.

Poland also needs to encourage Ukraine’s westward course, says Komorowski, who believes a stable, democratic, European Ukraine is vital to Poland’s security. “The Western world must understand that it will not be safe until Ukraine is safe,” he said in speech at the Ukrainian parliament in April, the first by a Polish president since 1997. Earlier this year, Komorowski stated that Poland was ready to sell weapons to Ukraine.

But if the incumbent sounds hawkish, his challenger, who is currently polling at around 30 percent is even more so. On international affairs, Komorowski and the current government are “flowing in the mainstream,” Duda said in a briefing on Feb. 18. There, the 42-year-old lawyer from Krakow said he believes that “this is not a sovereign policy,” because it means that “someone else is creating that current.” Poland, he added, should be the one to “create that current.”

Duda wants Poland to be “the regional leader of a bloc of post-communist states trying to persuade the Western powers to adopt a more robust response to Russian expansionism,” says Szczerbiak. In this way, his vision resembles that of the late Lech Kaczynski, Komorowski’s predecessor, who died in a plane crash in Smolensk, Russia, in 2010.

The only other contender with double-digit ratings on the eve of the election is Pawel Kukiz, a rock musician, running as an independent. “We should act within the framework of the [NATO] Alliance, but not step ahead of the line,” he said in a television interview on March 8. Poland can send Ukraine humanitarian aid, as well as bulletproof vests — but “no Kalashnikovs.”

Meanwhile, several minor candidates are calling for a more conciliatory attitude towards Russia. Ogórek, who first raised the idea of calling Putin, said at her campaign launch on Feb. 14 that Poland “cannot afford to have the Russian media defining us as Russia’s enemy No. 1.” The agrarian candidate, Adam Jarubas, has drawn attention to the plight of Polish farmers in the wake of Moscow’s ban on Polish agricultural products last summer, which has cost the country at least $550 million, according to government estimates. “We must view the economic dimension of [Poland’s relations with Russia] cooly,” he said at a talk on foreign policy in Warsaw on April 20.

These candidates are a reminder that not all Poles are delighted with Warsaw’s current support for Kiev. But, with each carrying less than 5 percent in polls, they are not serious contenders for the presidency.

Indeed, it’s re-election for Komorowski that still looks the most likely. The timing may work to his advantage: The election comes two days after the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe on May 8. Poland decided to shun the “Victory Day” parade in Moscow and held its own events on May 7 in Gdansk, attended by several leaders from the region, including Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko. These were preceded by a conference on the legacy of World War II that featured international historians — a deliberate contrast to the display of military might planned for Red Square. “Let us remember that the military demonstration [in Moscow on May 9] is not about history, but about today and the future,” Komorowski said ahead of the anniversary.

These commemorative events, in which Komorowski played a leading role, gave him a last minute chance to show that he is taking Poland’s security seriously, emphasizing parallels between the international situation seven decades ago and now, which adds credibility to his campaign’s security theme.

That may not be enough to give the incumbent the outright majority he’d need to avoid a runoff, where he’ll likely face Duda — and win. But even in the case of the unlikely, the Polish president won’t be dialing the Kremlin any time in the near future.

JANEK SKARZYNSKI/AFP/Getty Images

/Voir la version française plus bas/

One of the new A400M military transport aircraft crashed Saturday, May 9 near Seville in southern Spain. It was a test flight, conducted systematically before a new airplane is delivered to the customer. This usually occurs with a reduced crew. This is the first accident of this type of device since its commissioning. The aircraft informed the control tower to report a problem, before rushing toward the ground. The crew was Spanish and the accident has cost four lives.
The manufacturer Airbus Defence and Space, a subsidiary of European aerospace group (former EADS, up to 2013), which assembles the A400M at its factory in Seville, Andalusia, said in a statement that the plane was destined for Turkey. Airbus was not able to provide details of the accident, but has formed a crisis unit.

The first copy of the new European aircraft was delivered to France in 2013. Since then, Turkey and Germany have also taken delivery. Equipped with four turboprop engines, the A400M can carry up to 37 tons on 3300 km, land on unprepared terrain like sand, with a cargo of tanks or helicopters. The device has experienced many delays in its production and in its deliveries and accumulated an overbudget of 6.2 billion euros (around 30%).
Airbus has high hopes for this device that hits the market when its US competitors are at an end, including the C-130 developed there over 50 years. A total of 174 copies have been ordered to date, including 50 from France, 53 from Germany, 27 from Spain and 22 from the UK.

Following the crash of the Saturday A400M, Germany, the UK and Turkey have decided to stop their planes. If other countries are waiting for the identification of disaster`s causes, France has meanwhile decided to keep its six A400M in service but only "for priority flights," said the Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

In March 2015, the Royal Air Force has received its second A400M transport aircraft "Atlas". And one of the six aircraft delivered to the Air Force will going to fly, this March 6, around the world, in 15 days, 11 stops and 3 days, 2 hours and 20 minutes of cumulative flight (Transall C-160 would require three times as long). And that in order to ensure the commercial promotion of the device in Australia, check the availability of land and Faa'a Tontouta in New Caledonia and measure crew`s fatigue and alertness during the long trips.

These appearances are deceiving. After being rescued in 2010 while additional costs and delays mounted, the A400M program traverses a zone of turbulence again, which led to the replacement of Airbus military aviation branch`s director, Domingo Ureña-Raso by Fernando Alonso. The first A400M delivered in December to the German army, would have been found some "875 shortcomings" ... Hence the severe criticism of the manufacturer by Berlin, which also wants to replace as soon as its C-160 Transall suffering a serious problem of availability. "There is more at stake than the single image of an industrial company, it is question of the reliability of Germany in its alliances' military even said Ursula von der Leyen, the German Minister of Defense. And estimate that Airbus "seemed to have a problem with understanding the quality of a product". French Air Force was to receive 4 planes in 2015, it will have to settle for just 2. And Again, if all goes well as the delivery of the second aircraft is expected to occur at the end of the year.

----

L`une des nouveaux avions de transport militaire A400M s'est écrasé samedi, le 9 mai près de Séville, dans le sud de l'Espagne. Il s'agissait d'un vol d'essai, réalisé systématiquement avant qu'un nouvel appareil soit livré au client. Il s'effectue généralement avec un équipage réduit. C'est le premier accident de ce type d'appareil depuis sa mise en service. L'avion a informé la tour de contrôle pour lui signaler un problème, avant de foncer vers le sol. L'équipage était espagnol et l`accident a coûté la vie à quatre personnes.

Le constructeur Airbus Defence and Space, filiale du groupe aéronautique européen (EADS jusqu`à 2013) qui assemble l'A400M dans son usine de Séville, en Andalousie, a indiqué dans un communiqué que cet avion était destiné à la Turquie. Airbus n'a pas été en mesure de donner des détails sur l'accident, mais a constitué une cellule de crise.

Le premier exemplaire de ce nouvel avion européen a été livré à la France en 2013. Depuis, la Turquie et l'Allemagne en ont également pris livraison. Équipé de quatre turbopropulseurs, l'A400M peut transporter jusqu'à 37 tonnes sur 3.300 kilomètres, se poser sur des terrains non préparés comme le sable, avec à son bord des blindés ou des hélicoptères. L'appareil a connu de nombreux retards dans sa fabrication puis dans ses livraisons et a accumulé un dépassement de budget de 6,2 milliards d'euros (environ 30%).
Airbus a de grands espoirs pour cet appareil qui arrive sur le marché quand ses concurrents américains sont en bout de course, notamment le C-130 conçu il y a plus de 50 ans. Au total, 174 exemplaires ont été commandés à ce jour, dont 50 par la France, 53 par l'Allemagne, 27 par l'Espagne et 22 par le Royaume-Uni.

Suite au crash de l'A400M de samedi, l'Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni et la Turquie ont décidé d'immobiliser leurs avions. Si les autres pays attendent que soient identifiées les causes de la catastrophe, la France a quant à elle décidé de garder ses six A400M en service mais seulement "pour les vols prioritaires", a précisé le ministre de la Défense Jean-Yves Le Drian.

En mars 2015 le Royal Air Force vient de recevoir son deuxième avion de transport A400M « Atlas ». Et un des six exemplaires livrés à l’armée de l’Air va boucler, ce 6 mars, un tour du monde accompli en 15 jours, 11 escales et 3 jours, 2 heures et 20 minutes de vol cumulé (un Transall C-160 aurait besoin de trois fois plus de temps). Et cela afin d’assurer la promotion commerciale de l’appareil en Australie, de vérifier l’accessibilité des terrains de Faa’a et Tontouta en Nouvelle-Calédonie et de mesurer la fatigue et le niveau de vigilance des équipages sur de longs trajets.

Ces apparences sont trompeuses. Après avoir été sauvé en 2010 alors que les surcoûts et les retards s’accumulaient, le programme A400M traverse à nouveau une zone de turbulences, ce qui a conduit au remplacement du directeur de la branche aviation militaire chez Airbus, Domingo Ureña-Raso par Fernando Alonso. Sur le premier A400M livré en décembre à l’armée allemande, il aurait été constaté quelques « 875 manquements »… D’où les sévères critiques adressées au constructeur par Berlin, qui veut par ailleurs remplacer au plus vite ses Transall C-160 qui souffrent d’un sérieux problème de disponibilité. « Il y a plus en jeu que la seule image d’une entreprise industrielle, il est question de la fiabilité de l’Allemagne dans ses alliances » militaires, a même déclaré Mme Ursula von der Leyen, le ministre allemand de la Défense. Et d’estimer qu’Airbus « semblait avoir un problème avec sa compréhension de la qualité d’un produit ».L`armée de l’Air française devait recevoir 4 avions en 2015, elle devra s’en contenter de seulement 2. Et encore, si tout va bien étant donné que la livraison du second avion devrait avoir lieu à la fin de l’année.

Source : Sudouest.fr et Zone militaire

Language English Tag: A400M

GLASGOW — In Glasgow, there is hoary political cliché: voters would elect a monkey wearing a red Labour rosette, such is the party’s dominance in Scotland’s largest city. After Thursday, those lazy assumptions are gone forever.

The political earthquake that hit Scotland in the early hours of Friday morning was not unexpected. For months, opinion polls had predicted that the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) was set for a sweeping victory in the general election, winning almost every seat in Scotland. And yet, when the results finally arrived, the impact was no less jarring. Overnight, Scotland’s political landscape has been razed, with potentially seismic long-term repercussions for the whole of the United Kingdom.

Thursdays’ vote represented a seismic change from more than a decade of minimal change in Scotland at U.K. general elections. In 2010, not a single one of the 59 Westminster seats in Scotland changed hands. The SNP, which went into the election with six seats, now holds 56. The nationalists’ previous best general election return was 11, in 1974.

Stories of improbable victories abound: In Glasgow North East, for example, Willie Bain, who was thought to hold the safest seat in the west of Scotland, lost his Labour seat by a margin of 58.1 percent to 33.7 percent – the swing of almost 40 per cent from the 2010 election, setting a U.K. record for volatility. Similar figures were recorded across Scotland: In Coatbridge, for example, the sitting Labour MP, in office since 1982, was swept from power by a swing of more than 36 percent to the SNP. In Paisley, Labour shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander was defeated by a 20-year-old who has yet to sit her finals at university. In the Highlands, the SNP’s Drew Hendry solidly beat Danny Alexander who had been Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the treasury in the coalition government at Westminster.

Labour lost all but one of the 41 seats it took in 2010. The party, founded by a Scot, Keir Hardie, and effectively forged as a political force in the heartlands of industrial Scotland, could struggle to regain power again.

The SNP’s general election victory was widely welcomed on the streets of Glasgow Friday. The SNP had never won a general election seat in Scotland’s largest city before, though the city voted for independence. Now, all seven Glasgow MPs are Scottish nationalist. Aiden, 25, who works in a coffee shop and had voted nationalist for the first time, was “delighted with the result,” he said. “We need a change and that’s what this is.”

On Thursday night at a sports arena in Glasgow’s East End, ashen-faced Labour activists stood solemnly watching the returning officer on stage announce the results of each of the seven seats in the city. All fell to the Scottish nationalists, with huge swings away from Labour incumbents. “We are in different territory,” Frank McAveety, a former Labour member of the Scottish Parliament and sitting councilor told me as he stood watching the returning officer declare yet another SNP victory. Labour, he said, did not offer Scottish voters a clear narrative. “We need to find a way that we are telling the story of Scotland’s future.”

But Labour’s problems in Scotland run too deep to be resolved with simply a more compelling story. The party has long dominated Scottish politics — especially at the local level, Labour has controlled Glasgow city council for all but four years since 1952. But in recent years, Labour has looked increasingly lethargic and out of touch. The party’s share of the U.K. general election vote remained strong until Thursday – it won over 40 per cent in 2010 – but Labour lost control of the devolved Scottish parliament in 2007, and was badly beaten in the 2011 Scottish elections.

Lacking resources and active members, Labour often struggled to compete with the SNP on the ground during this general election campaign. Even in Labour held seats the party was often thin on the ground, forced to reply on mailshots and phone calls to get their message across. Meanwhile, the SNP has been buoyed with the youthful vivacity of over 75,000 new members — and pre-election polls suggested that more than 70 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds voted SNP — since last year’s independence referendum.

The euphoria that spread among SNP supporters on Thursday night as seat after seat turned the party’s distinctive shade of canary yellow has been tempered in recent days by the wider U.K. picture: The Conservatives – widely loathed in Scotland – won an unexpected majority. Blamed for the de-industrialization that still scars much of urban Scotland, the Tories remain unpopular in much of Scotland. Many Scots are wary of another Tory administration. Thursday was the Conservatives worst ever performance north of the border, even though the party’s sole Scottish Conservative MP, David Mundell, held his seat in the Scottish Borders.

David Cameron’s success raises difficult questions for the super-charged Scottish nationalist cohort at Westminster. Nicola Sturgeon, the party’s leader, has said she will not work with the Tories, potentially leaving the phalanx of new SNP MPs effectively impotent on the backbenches. There is precedent for this in Scottish politics: During the 1980s and 1990s, the large Labour delegations Scotland sent down to London were effectively frozen out of power during almost two decades of Conservative rule. This fed demands for a local parliament that reflected Scotland’s more left wing electoral preferences.

If the new SNP intake does find itself without influence in the House they could propose another option: leaving Westminster, and the United Kingdom, altogether. Certainly the fact that Scotland has once again voted left – this time for the SNP – and has found itself governed once more by the right could add more pressure for another referendum on independence.

But Thursday’s result does not charge the basic arithmetic of independence. A majority of Scots would still vote to stay in the union, despite the ringing endorsement handed to the SNP. Sturgeon will not hold another referendum until she and her party are confident of victory.

But a psychological blow has been struck to the three-centuries-old union with England. This general election campaign has done more harm to the union than last year’s referendum: Prime Minister David Cameron and the Conservatives’ strategy of depicting the SNP as nefarious separatists that would hold a Labour government to “ransom” was brutally efficient in key English marginal seats, but has damaged cross-border relations.

Whether Cameron is willing, or able, to find a new accommodation with Scottish nationalists is unclear – although without one, the union looks increasingly doomed.

On Friday, Cameron said he would fulfill pledges for greater devolution – that is more powers for the Scottish Parliament. But any such deal would be contingent on restricting the rights of non-English MPs in the House of Commons to vote on issues that only affected England. In exchange for dropping their opposition to this, Scottish nationalists could be offered full control over tax and spend.

Such a piecemeal approach to constitutional reform, however, is part of the reason the U.K. is threatened with disintegration. Devolution has been a largely ad hoc reaction to demands for self-government, often designed in line with the interests of major U.K. political parties rather than voting publics in the devolved regions. A fully fledged constitutional convention to discuss a new arrangement for governing across the U.K., possibly under a federal system, might solve these issues but “looks as far off as ever,” said Michael Keating, professor of politics at the University of Aberdeen.

Regardless of what happens in Westminster, the SNP look set to consolidate their power in Edinburgh, a city far more central to their eventual goals – that is, independence. If there is to be another referendum, the nationalists will need to win another majority in Scottish parliamentary elections, slated to take place next May.

Their chances are looking bright. On Friday, at a press conference Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy was defiant, telling journalists that his party would “bounce back” from its most disastrous performance in history. But with just a single seat in Westminster and their lowest poll ratings in decades, Labour is a long, long way off regaining its mantle as the party of Scotland.

Jeff J Mitchell / Getty Images

Spokeswoman for the Russian Interior Ministry Elena Alekseeva stated that about 20 million people across Russia took part in celebrations commemorating the 70th anniversary of victory over the Nazi Germany in World War II on Saturday.

Voici une fiche de lecture du livre "Edward Snwoden, une rupture stratégique que nous avons écrit, avec Quentin Michaud. Elle est publiée par le blog La plume et le canon que je ne connaissais pas et qui produit, régulièrement, des fiches de lecture sur des livres de stratégie et de défense : merci à lui. O. Kempf

L’actualité récente a montré que le « cyberconflit » n’était plus une abstraction issue de romans de Steampunk. Ukraine, Chine, Iran, Syrie… et France : le cyber n’a pas de frontières et définit sa stratégie propre. Dans cette bataille, les États-Unis ont une longueur d’avance considérable par leur puissance historique, technologique et économique. Pourtant, cette toute-puissance s’est trouvée grandement remise en question depuis juin 2013, suite à la publication d’informations sur le fonctionnement et les méthodes de la National Security Agency (NSA) par les journalistes Glenn Greenwald et Laura Poitras.

Un scandale international qui n’est pourtant pas dû à Anonymous, Wikileaks ni à une puissance étrangère, mais à un jeune américain, Edward Snowden. Ce dernier n’est pas un agent de la NSA, mais administrateur réseau chez Booz Allen Hamilton, un sous-traitant de l’agence. Bien qu’ayant eu un passé au sein de la CIA, c’est ce poste qui lui permettra de fuir avec un nombre considérable de données sur l’activité de la NSA.

« L’affaire Edward Snowden – Une rupture stratégique. » de Quentin Michaud et Olivier Kempf revient sur cette affaire qui a redistribué les cartes au niveau de la cyberstratégie mondiale. S’il existe déjà une bibliographie sur l’affaire, notamment le bouquin de Greenwald No Place to Hide, le livre a le grand mérite de revenir de façon globale sur l’action de Snowden, en détaillant les acteurs présents, leurs méthodes, le contexte, et surtout les conséquences. Une gageure pour un bouquin de 200 pages, mais le pari est remporté grâce à une clarté dans le propos qui évite le détail technique superflu, et à un cheminement thématique efficace évoqué plus haut. La fuite de Snowden, sa collaboration avec les journalistes, les révélations de la presse, la réaction des États-Unis et surtout de ses alliés… Des évènements presque aussi passionnants que les fuites des documents de la NSA, puisqu’ils vont révéler les coulisses du renseignement et les jeux de pouvoir qui en sont à l’origine.

« L’affaire Edward Snowden… » se divise en trois grandes parties, les deux premières étant l’œuvre de Quentin Michaud, la dernière d’Olivier Kempf, tous deux ayant déjà publiés des ouvrages sur la cyberdéfense aux éditions Economica. Les cinq premiers chapitres reviennent chronologiquement sur le déroulement des révélations orchestrés par l’analyste avec le concours de la presse. L’autre grande partie développe chacun des acteurs (NSA, Snowden, journalistes…) mais comporte surtout deux aspects intéressants. Le premier aborde les réactions des pays face aux méthodes de la NSA rendues publiques. Il est fascinant de voir sous les apparences, les différentes cultures du renseignement et le passif vis-à-vis du partenaire principal, les États-Unis. Difficile d’y discerner de grandes tendances, tant les intérêts nationaux divergent. Dernier point qui est abordé chapitre 11: l’architecture du programme du surveillance et ses différentes ramifications couvrant autant de cibles du renseignement américain. Le dernier volet, écrit par Olivier Kempf, développe lui les angles politiques, géopolitiques et stratégiques. Cette prise de hauteur permet de voir à quel point les fuites mises au point par l’ancien sous-traitant de la NSA et les journalistes n’est pas une énième affaire de lanceur d’alerte, à l’image de ce que Bradley Manning avait pu faire avec Wikileaks. Les répercussions se font ici plus profondes et lourdes de questionnement. S’il n’y pas ici le poids médiatique d’une bavure américaine filmée depuis un hélicoptère, c’est le quidam moyen qui se voit ici ciblé à travers son quotidien passé au crible de façon globalisée.

Le travail de synthèse de Michaud et Kempf met en avant les questions que soulève un tel cas de figure : Quels sont les moyens employés aujourd’hui dans le cybersurveillance ? Dans quel cadre et pour quels résultats ? L’acceptation tacite du peuple américain de la surveillance généralisée après le 11 septembre doit-elle s’appliquer partout ? Et comment dans un monde dominé par l’omniscience technologique américaine peut-on espérer garder une souveraineté nationale en la matière ? Au terme de l’ouvrage, ces points sont détaillés avec autant de concision que de pertinence. Au-delà de l’analyse factuelle nécessaire, sa grande qualité est bien d’élever le débat

Une rupture stratégique l’affaire Snowden, donc ? Assurément quand on détaille ses effets sur l’économie, la politique internationale et même la culture cyber. Si de prime abord, passé le choc des premières révélations en juin 2013, le cas Snowden semble « digéré », il n’en demeure pas moins qu’il y aura désormais un « avant » et un « après ». Une rupture d’autant plus marquée, qu’elle vient d’un individu isolé et issu du système qu’il dénonce et qui dépasse largement le cadre du secret d’état pour interroger directement tout un chacun sur les valeurs de la cité.

« L’affaire Edward Snowden – Une rupture stratégique. » Par Quentin Michaud et Olivier Kempf Ed. Economica

La plume et le canon

This report is for the media and the general public.

The SMM monitored the implementation of the “Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements”. Its monitoring was restricted by third parties and security considerations.* Compared to previous days, the situation at Donetsk airport and Shyrokyne remained during daylight relatively calm. The SMM observed several official ceremonies for the “Reconciliation and Commemoration Day” throughout Ukraine passing peacefully.

The SMM observed during the reporting period several explosions from its locations in Donetsk city and Luhansk region, as well as a few explosions and some small-arms fire from an observation point on the eastern outskirts of government-controlled Berdianske (1.5km west of Shyrokyne; 18.5km east of Mariupol)[1].

The use of weapons directly observed was much less than in previous days. It should be noted in this context, however, that the SMM was restricted in its patrolling in Donetsk and Luhansk region during the reporting period as a result of last week’s increase in violence (see SMM Spot Report 3 May 2015, www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/154786). Furthermore, the movement of the SMM was impaired due to lack of mobile telephone coverage, reportedly caused by damage of the optical fibre cable, which resulted in the SMM vehicle tracking devices becoming non-operational. According to the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) in Donetsk, 120mm mortar outgoing shelling started early in the morning at 06:50hrs from Pisky village (12km north-west of Donetsk, government-controlled) to Zhabunki village (11km north-west of Donetsk, “Donetsk People’s Republic”(“DPR”)-controlled).

The SMM attended a weekly security meeting in Slovyansk (government-controlled, 95km north of Donetsk). The meeting is held each week in Slovyansk and chaired by the deputy mayor. Other participants are the Secret Service of Ukraine (SBU), the Ukrainian Armed Forces commander of Slovyansk, the National Guard, police, prosecutor and representatives of the anti-terrorism operation (ATO). The deputy mayor said that fears about an increased level of tension on 9 May had been created artificially and were fuelled by the media. According to him, the atmosphere among the general public is extremely tense and there were concerns that “DPR”-affiliated armed groups had returned to the city.

The SMM in Kyiv held a meeting via video conference with the Russian Colonel-General, Representative of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the JCCC headquarters in Soledar (government-controlled, 77km north of Donetsk) and the Ukrainian Major-General, Head of the Ukrainian side to the JCCC, to discuss the recent increase in violence (see SMM Chief Monitor statement 8 May 2015, http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/155931).

The SMM visited a psychiatric hospital, a closed institution, in “Lugansk People’s Republic”-(“LPR”)-controlled Slovianoserbsk (28km north-west of Luhansk). The director of the hospital said that there was a shortage of staff caused by the closure of a checkpoint between the hospital located in Slovianoserbsk and government-controlled Trokhizbenka (33km north-west of Luhansk). According to him, 53 out of 183 staff members commute each day from Trokhizbenka to Slovianoserbsk. In addition, the interlocutor said that already before closure of the checkpoint, no doctors had been working in the psychiatric hospital anymore. However patients were being transported to the nearby local hospital for diagnosing and revision of their treatment plans. About 80 per cent of the patients admitted to the hospital were from the government-controlled areas and now their family members were unable to visit them because of the closure of the checkpoint. The hospital currently has 287 female and 27 male patients.

In government-controlled Stanytsia Luhanska (16km north-east of Luhansk) the SMM observed 30 to 40 mostly elderly female people lining up at the Ukrainian Armed Forces checkpoint to enter into government-controlled territory. Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers did not let them pass through on the grounds of travel restrictions stipulated in the temporary order on controlling the movement of people, vehicles and goods (T144). Those waiting said that many people came to the local market in Stanytsia Luhanska from “LPR”-controlled territory and Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers collect passports in order to make sure that people return. The SMM observed approximately ten passports stored in a box. The soldiers said that they would be given back when people returned and those queuing would be allowed to pass through. The SMM observed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers at the checkpoint were not searching people nor checking their belongings when they were returning to “LPR”-controlled territory. From 9:30 to 11.30hrs, the SMM observed around 300 to 350 people crossing the bridge in both directions. The large majority of them were female elderly persons visiting the market in Stanytsia Luhanska.

The SMM revisited six Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons holding areas in the Donetsk region. While the SMM was granted freedom of movement and full access to all these storage sites, the SMM observed that some of the heavy weapons previously recorded were not present. At one storage site, four out of ten BM-21 Grad Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) previously recorded were missing. The SMM was told that two were lacking due to maintenance, while two others were in a winter storage military compound. At another location, six out of eighteen towed 152mm self-propelled howitzers (Msta-B) previously recorded were absent. Moreover, two of the pieces still present had their serial number tags removed; subsequently the SMM was unable to identify these pieces as compared to what was previously recorded.

Despite claims that the withdrawal of heavy weapons was complete, an SMM unmanned aerial vehicle observed the following weapons’ movements/presence in areas that are non-compliant with the withdrawal lines: (i) in “DPR”-controlled territory, two tanks; and, (ii) in government-controlled territory, eight tanks. 

The SMM observed several official ceremonies for the “Reconciliation and Commemoration Day” in the country. In Kharkiv, the SMM observed that approximately 1,000 people were present (mixed gender and age composition, predominantly young and middle-aged people) at the ceremony. The SMM saw about 450 police officers at the event. The SMM monitored the ceremony in Ivano-Frankivsk, where approximately 900 people (mixed gender and age composition) gathered in order to commemorate victims of World War II. Approximately 25 police officers were present. In Odessa, the SMM saw nearly 500 participants (different ages and an equal number of men and women) and approximately 30 police officers.  All events passed peacefully and no security incidents were reported.

The SMM continued to monitor the situation in Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson, Chernivtsi, Lviv and Kyiv.

* Restrictions on SMM access and freedom of movement:

The SMM is restrained in fulfilling its monitoring functions by restrictions imposed by third parties and security considerations including the lack of information on whereabouts of landmines.

 

The security situation in Donbas is fluid and unpredictable and the cease-fire does not hold everywhere.

 

• The SMM was stopped by Ukrainian Armed Forces engineering units before a checkpoint near government-controlled Nyzhnie (56km north-west of Luhansk) and was told that there was on-going fighting in and around a checkpoint  in the area of government-controlled Krymske (43km north-west of Luhansk). According to Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel there was mortar fire in the area and the “LPR"  was attempting to disrupt the building of new fortifications on the government-controlled side.  The SMM returned and drove towards government-controlled Novotoshkivske (53km north-west of Luhansk).

 

[1] For a complete breakdown of the ceasefire violations, please see the annexed table.

 

Related Stories

• Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), based on information received as of 19:30 (Kyiv time), 7 May 2015
• The Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine urged all sides to respect ceasefire during the forthcoming commemoration events
• Latest from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), based on information received as of 19:30 (Kyiv time), 6 May 2015

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