Diplomacy & Crisis News

Summing up the general state of awareness in the world that we are living in, an overwhelming majority of the world seems to be either unaware of or unconcerned about the potentially catastrophic confrontation building up in the last two months in the Himalayas between India and China, the world’s two largest countries, which also happen to be the world’s second and the fourth largest economies, and, most worryingly, two nuclear armed nations that have the world’s most well-oiled defense apparatus.

The standoff, which is threatening to spiral out of control from the Chinese side, started when the one-party led Communist nation’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) started constructing a motorable road from Dokola in the Doklam area towards the Bhutan Army camp at Zompelri on June 16, 2017.

Bhutan, which believes the area is its territory, swiftly reacted, and in a press release issued on June 29, 2017, stated clearly that “the construction of the road inside Bhutanese territory is a direct violation of its agreements with China“.

The Bhutanese foreign ministry further said:

” Boundary talks are ongoing between Bhutan and China and we have written agreements of 1988 and 1998 stating that the two sides agree to maintain peace and tranquillity in their border areas pending a final settlement on the boundary question, and to maintain status quo on the boundary as before March 1959. The agreements also state that the two sides will refrain from taking unilateral action, or use of force, to change the status quo of the boundary. Bhutan hopes that the status quo in the Doklam area will be maintained as before 16 June 2017.”

At the core of the dispute is the question of where the final tri-boundary point — the point at which India, China, and Bhutan meet — lies.

China argues that the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction is at Mount Gipmochi (Gyemo Chen), much south of Batang la, the place that India and Bhutan consider as the tri-junction.  China claims 89 sq km in Doklam (along Gamochen at the border, to the river divide at Batangla and Sinchela, and down to the Amo Chhu River) as its own.

But it is one of only four areas – as per Bhutan – over which China and Bhutan, who do not have diplomatic relations, have a dispute and have had 24 rounds of talks. China, however, claims much more than that and considers a total of seven areas as disputed areas.

China, it may be noted, has territorial disputes with virtually every neighbour of its. And if its conduct in the South China Sea and with Japan over Senkaku Islands is any indication, China does not really believe in giving in to other nation’s claims.

Therefore, much before the official press release by Bhutan, and just two days after the construction work by China began, on June 18, 2017, India sent around 270 troops, with weapons and two bulldozers and stopped the Chinese troops from constructing the road.

In a 15-page document released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the same day, Beijing said that “over 270 Indian soldiers, carrying weapons and driving two bulldozers advanced more than 100 meters into the Chinese territory to obstruct the road building of the Chinese side, causing tension in the area.”

It further accused India of raising the number of Indian soldiers to 400.

India’s ministry of defence, however, brushed aside the Chinese accusation of escalation and said that India has been maintaining 350-400 troops at Doklam ever since the stand-off began.

The Indian action is in accordance with the India-Bhutan Treaty of Friendship of 1949, which advocated India’s guiding role in Bhutan’s diplomatic and defense affairs.  Though the 1949 treaty was superseded by a new friendship treaty of 2007 that replaced the provision that made it mandatory for Bhutan to take India’s guidance on foreign policy.

The 2007 treaty provided broader sovereign rights to Bhutan by, for instance, not making it mandatory for Bhutan to take India’s permission in matters such as arms imports. But it did not alter much the inherent attached interests of the two nations.

Article 2 of the 2007 India-Bhutan Treaty says:

In keeping with the abiding ties of close friendship and cooperation between Bhutan and India, the Government of the Kingdom of Bhutan and the Government of the Republic of India shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither Government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other.

While sovereignty is the principal concern for Bhutan, the dispute for India beyond just the size of the territory in Doklam.

Picture Courtesy: Indian Defence Review

India is alarmed that if the Chinese do complete the motorable road in the Doklam area, it will give China an imposing access to India’s strategically vulnerable ‘chicken’s neck’ in the Siliguri Corridor, a 20km wide corridor that links India’s seven northeastern states to its mainland.

It may further be noted that Bhutan’s own administrative apparatus can get severely compromised if the Chinese inhabit Doklam as Bhutan’s communications network as it is connected through Siliguri in India.

At the moment, it is a stalemate. India is refusing to pull back its troops from the area that it says belongs to Bhutan. And China is threatening a bigger war every new day.

UPDATE:

As on August 28, 2017, India and China reached a consensus on disengagement of border personnel at the #Doklam faceoff site. A release by India’s ministry of external affairs said:

In recent weeks, India and China have maintained diplomatic communication in respect of the incident at Doklam. During these communications, we were able to express our views and convey our concerns and interests.

On this basis, expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site at Doklam has been agreed to and is on-going.

.

The post Doklam: China’s War Drums and the India-Bhutan Treaty appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

(Own report) - The Russian petroleum company, Rosneft, is expanding its activities in Germany, thereby reducing Germany's dependence on the transatlantic oil industry. While public discussion is focused on ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's candidacy for the chair of Rosneft's board of directors, the company has increased its share to 25 percent of Germany's crude oil imports, and has become the third largest oil processing enterprise in Germany. It has plans to further strengthen its position in the country, inspired by the close German-Russian natural gas cooperation, which provides Germany significant influence over Western Europe's supply of Russian gas. Achieving predominant influence over the EU's supply and a growing independence vis-à-vis the energy giants of the transatlantic era, facilitates Berlin's pursuit of an independent German-EU global policy.

If tolerance and acceptance are not part of the educational system of Iraq, what kind of future does that country have?

While ISIS has been uprooted from most of Iraq, years of bitter struggles and wars have deprived an entire generation in Iraq. According to the Iraqi Institution for Development, in ISIS controlled areas, subjects such as history, geography, literature, art and music were removed from the curricula. They were replaced by Islamic law, physical fitness and jihad education. Military training, religious extremism and recruitment to the terror group was a major component of the ISIS educational system.

For example, a book used for 6-year-old children was titled “The Islamic State is Remaining and Expanding.” The illustrations in this book show children using weapons and wearing ISIS attire. An ISIS math textbook asked children the number of explosives needed to kill a Shia Muslim or an unbeliever in a suicide bombing. Furthermore, the plus sign was eliminated for ISIS claims that it references the Christian cross. ISIS deprived students of basic components to deal with the modern world.

As a result of this curriculum, many Iraqi parents opted not to send their children to school. Also the children who attended ISIS schools are lagging behind in their education and are traumatized from the entire experience of having their childhood robbed from them. There are horror stories of ISIS taking school children to watch executioners crucify and behead people. Aid workers stress that these children have nightmares to date from this experience. As a result, Iraqi children who have been liberated from the yoke of ISIS are several years behind in their studies.

However, there is a huge question mark whether the Shia Popular Mobilization Units that have contributed to liberating Iraqis from ISIS will be much better. Iranian political theorist Reza Parchizadeh noted that Nouri Al-Maliki is close to the Iranian regime: “He incites hatred against Sunnis, Jews and Westerners and has influence on the educational system. It is natural that he should try to advertise the ideological Shiite values that are close to Tehran.”

A report in Al-Monitor also stressed how the Shia Popular Mobilization Units have already made inroads on Iraqi university campuses, where it is feared by some that they could seek to export the Iranian educational model to Iraq. One example of this was provided by Iranian dissident Mohsen Behzad Karimi, who stated that the Shia-led government is indoctrinating students to support martyrdom.

Iraq expert Gilgamesh Nabeel is more concerned about the plight of minorities under the Iraqi Government’s Educational system: “There is a concentration on Shiite Islamic figures. Minorities are marginalized in Iraq’s curriculum. This left students with total ignorance of their fellow citizens.

There is nothing on the Kurds in Iraq’s Central Government curricula. There is no single trace for the history of Christianity in Iraq. Nothing can be read on Yazidis and Mandeans. There is a concentration on the Islamic era in a way marginalizing even the ancient history of Mesopotamia to just a few chapters in the first intermediate grade. Besides, the Islamic look on non-Muslims might create a gap between Muslims and non-Muslims.”

In contrast, areas under the Kurdistan Regional Government teach children to be tolerant and to respect human rights as well as minority communities. As Kurdistan’s Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani proclaimed, “The KRG has been continually working, so that the education sector will have a modern and sophisticated system that is aligned with contemporary international standards, principles and values.” Kurdistan’s Minister of Education Pshtiwan Sadiq added: “Children in the Kurdistan Region are all taught in their mother tongue, depending on their heritage and location, which is a rare phenomenon.” Every year in the Kurdish educational system, they print materials in Armenian, Arabic, Turkamani, Kurdish and also for the Yezidis.

In addition, the KRG coordinated with the Education Ministry in order to avoid extremists having influence in the educational sector. 18 Islamic extremist books are banned in Kurdistan and some versions of the Koran that teach extremism were replaced with peaceful versions of the Quran in the Kurdish school system.

Even though the Kurdistan region has less money to invest in education than the Iraqi Central Government does due to the economic crisis, thanks to the KRG’s efforts, the illiteracy rate in Iraqi Kurdistan has shrunk between the years 2004 to 2017, down from 34 percent to 15 percent. At the same time, the number of students have risen from 534,962 students to a staggering 1,738,521 students. The number of teachers rose from 21, 389 to 136,302. And, the number of schools also increased from 1,320 to 6,789 schools. There are also 278 international schools are in Kurdistan. However, generally, the education sector is something public. It is totally free. To the contrary, ISIS charged students a fortune just to go to elementary school.

According to a UNICEF study, while the Iraqi government has more money to invest in education, the Kurdish educational system is better developed. This is largely due to the efforts of Kurdish Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani, who considers having a top quality education to be his main priority for a healthy education system means a developed society and community. In other words, as the educational system has worsened in Iraq in recent years due to the rise of Islamic extremism, the educational system in Iraqi Kurdistan has vastly improved since the Kurds gained autonomy. In addition, Kurdistan’s Prime Minister has financed giving a rehabilitation education to ISIS children in prison, where they will be able to catch up on their educational gap in special schools.

Having said that, we should remember that education reflects the values of a society. Therefore, looking at the messages conveyed by the educational system teaches us a lot about the beliefs which characterize a society. If tolerance and acceptance are not part of the educational system of Iraq, what kind of future does that country have?

The post Iraq’s Lost Generation: Indoctrinated to Hate appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Laurent Fabius, 37 quai d’Orsay, diplomatie française 2012-2016, Plon, 2016

Comme un rapport de fin de mission, l’ancien ministre des Affaires Etragères Laurent Fabius a publié un bilan (naturellement sous un prisme personnel) de son action à la tête du quai d’Orsay, peu de temps après son départ du Ministère (pour prendre la présidence du Conseil constitutionnel). Ce type d’exercice, on le sait, participe toujours d’une figure imposée qui empêche de le prendre totalement pour argent comptant, mais offre toujours également des enseignements précieux.
D’abord sur les dossiers, les moments, que son auteur a choisi de mettre en avant. Laurent Fabius commence par l’accord de Paris sur le climat (COP21 de fin 2015), dont on connaît les difficultés depuis l’élection de Donald Trump, mais que l’ancien ministre et Premier ministre considère, sans sous-estimer les obstacles à venir, comme le moment fort de son action au quai.  L’accord sur le nucléaire iranien et la tragédie syrienne sont les deux autres grands volets abordés ensuite, sur lesquels l’auteur ne renie rien et assume ses positions, critiquées comme on le sait : a-t-il été trop intransigeant, donnant l’impression de s’opposer à une solution sur l’Iran (hypothéquant par-là même l’avenir des relations avec ce pays), et marginalisant la France dans la crise syrienne à force de réclamer avant tout le départ de Bachar al-Assad ? Viennent ensuite les questions européennes, sur lesquelles Laurent Fabius pressent la nécessité de changer d’approche, face à la crise à la fois morale et politique de l’Union. Un dernier chapitre sur l’administration du ministère vient rappeler utilement les réformes engagées (en particulier une plus grande prise en compte de la préoccupation économique et commerciale), et celles qui restent à accomplir pour moderniser notre diplomatie. Et la conclusion revient sur l’indépendance de la France.
On retient de ce livre son ton souvent direct, ponctué d’anecdotes parfois cruelles pour certaines personnalités internationales, mais pédagogique, et en cela utile puisqu’il récapitule les dossiers, leurs points de blocage, leur dénouement, et les actions qui y ont conduit. On retient également la propension de Laurent Fabius à ramener plusieurs enjeux à une confrontation entre Washington et Moscou. Les « lignes rouges » syriennes et le recul de Barack Obama n’ont pas été digérés, mais les sirènes poutiniennes ne sauraient y constituer une alternative. Sur chacun des deux chefs d’Etat, le chef de la diplomatie française consacre de longs passages, et y revient encore dans sa conclusion. Prisme trop daté de la bipolarité ? C’est pourtant bien autour des ces deux figures que se sont recomposées les relations internationales dans ces années, au point même de faire sortir la France du jeu syrien, dans lequel elle avait initialement cherché à être structurante. Mais Laurent Fabius ne regrette rien. Le face-à-face entre l’Etat islamique et le régime syrien est l’œuvre machiavélique de ce dernier, véritable fossoyeur du pays et de sa population. Les Etats-Unis, en refusant de frapper à l’été 2013, ont laissé le champ libre à la Russie, qui en a tiré la leçon de la faiblesse occidentale, leçon dont on reparlera en Ukraine. Donc la position française était juste. Même si elle a conduit à la marginalisation, pourrait-on demander ? La cohérence de la posture et la force de son sous-bassement éthique semblent assumées ici, même si à court terme la percée politique ne fut pas au rendez-vous. 
Mitterrandien s’il en est, Laurent Fabius semble jouer pour l’Histoire : avoir eu moralement raison, avoir entamé la modernisation, comptent plus que d’éventuels succès de court terme. L’inconvénient, comme on le devine, réside dans le fait que là se trouve précisément le reproche souvent adressé à la diplomatie française (par exemple par Charles Cogan, dans son French Negociating Behaviour : Dealing With La Grande Nation), à savoir privilégier la posture et le processus plutôt que le résultat.
Laurent Fabius laisse ici de côté d’autres débats : concepts de gaullo-mitterrandisme ou de néo-conservatisme, de grandeur ou de déclin, s’effacent ici devant l’impératif de gestion, raconté de l’intérieur même si c’est avec recul. D’autres grands moments du quinquennat sont moins développés, comme s’ils étaient secondaires par rapport aux trois grands piliers retenus (COP 21, Iran, Syrie), moins marqués du sceau de l’auteur lui-même (comme la conférence sur le Proche-Orient), ou davantage gérés par d’autres (le Mali). Mais au final le témoignage est précieux, et l’on souhaiterait qu’il fasse école.

(Own report) - Decisive sectors of the German elite are holding onto diesel technology, causing the automobile industry to fall significantly behind its foreign competitors, according to US and British observers, who see the German automobile industry soon confronting a "Tesla shock." Whereas, the demand for US electric automobiles is rapidly growing, in the long run, the demand for German diesel models is significantly sinking. In fact, the German government has been shielding German companies from innovation pressure, by imposing their interests, even abroad. Berlin has not only applied the brakes to the introduction of the EU's CO2 emission limits, but also to China's setting electric automobile quotas, to reduce pollutant emissions. In the current diesel scandal, Berlin continues to maintain its policy course.

Visiting Gaza for the first time since taking office as United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres today called for Palestinian unity, saying division &#8220only undermines the cause of the Palestinian people.&#8221

Calling for creative ways to work towards peace in Syria, the United Nations Special Envoy today outlined the political path forward, which includes holding another round of the so-named Astana talks and behind-the-scenes efforts by the international community.

Extensive human rights violations and abuses have been committed in the wake of anti-Government protests in Venezuela and point to &#8220the existence of a policy to repress political dissent and instill fear in the population to curb demonstrations,&#8221 a report by the United Nations human rights office has found.

The United Nations adviser on the prevention of genocide today expressed deep concern at the deteriorating situation of up to 25,000 civilians trapped in Syria&#39s Raqqa, noting that civilians are used as human shields in this de facto capital of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da&#39esh) terrorist group under intense bombardment.

The United Nations Security Council today extended its authorization of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) until 31 May 2018, approving a reduction of its uniformed personnel to a maximum 21,626 by 31 December 2017, with an eye towards the gradual handover over of responsibilities to Somali security forces.

Skilled health personnel are desperately needed in north-eastern Nigeria, the United Nations population agency today said, after training hundreds of health providers in Borno State on the basics of reproductive health needs.

The Security Council today extended the mandate of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon for one year.

The head of the United Nations agriculture agency today called for greater funding for a sustainable response to the refugee crisis in Uganda, as he concluded a visit to the country&#39s north hosting those crossing the border for safety.

The United Nations Security Council has strongly condemned the latest ballistic missile launch by the Democratic People&#39s Republic of Korea (DPRK), which flew over Japan, as well as the series of launches that took place on 25 August.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has urged all countries to sign and ratify a global treaty that bans nuclear explosions on the Earth&#39s surface, in the atmosphere, underwater and underground.

Alarmed at renewed fighting and incitement in the wake of the attacks on Myanmar security forces in northern areas of Rakhine state, the top United Nations human rights official today urged all sides to renounce the use of violence and called on State authorities to ensure they abide by their obligations under international human rights law.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres today reiterated his call for a political solution to the Middle East conflict that would end Israel&#39s occupation of Palestinian land and would create an independent Palestinian state, living side by side with Israel in peace and security.

The United Nations migration agency is working with Libyan authorities to help rescue more migrants off the Libyan coast.

The United Nations aid chief released today $45 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to four countries &#8220struggling in crises away from the headlines&#8221 &#8211 Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Chad and Sudan &#8211 where more than 21 million people need urgent humanitarian assistance.

The United Nations is reacting to the devastating images from Tropical Storm Harvey, which has affected an area the size of Spain in the southern United States, and which is likely to worsen in the coming hours as the rain continues.