Mit der Veröffentlichung seines Syntheseberichts im März 2023 hat der Weltklimarat IPCC sein Arbeitsprogramm im sechsten Berichtszyklus abgeschlossen. Die IPCC-Berichte, und insbesondere deren politische Zusammenfassungen, liefern eine wissenschaftliche Basis für die Verhandlungen im Rahmen der UN-Klimarahmenkonvention (UNFCCC). Sie sind ein zentraler Orientierungspunkt der globalen Klimadebatte. Der jüngste Synthesebericht (SYR) gilt als eine der wichtigsten Informationsquellen für die im Pariser Abkommen vorgesehene erste Globale Bestandsaufnahme, die auf der UNFCCC-Vertragsstaatenkonferenz in Dubai (COP 28) im Dezember 2023 abgeschlossen werden soll. Die wissenspolitischen Kontroversen, die bei der Verabschiedung der Zusammenfassung sichtbar wurden, spiegeln Interessengegensätze wider, die die anstehende Runde neuer Emissionsminderungs- und Finanzierungszusagen prägen werden.
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Forced marriage is a distinct form of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) used strategically by armed groups. Although recent rulings at the International Criminal Court (ICC), such as the case of The Prosecutor v. Dominic Ongwen, have built precedent for charging and convicting non-state armed groups with forced marriage as a distinct form of crime against humanity, policymakers and practitioners have more work to do to prevent and address the long-term impacts of forced marriage. Forced marriage not only directly affects forced wives (and their children) but also harms entire communities. Forced marriage can lead to cycles of violence and have negative repercussions on human security, including livelihoods, education, and health in communities.
IPI and UN Women cohosted a policy forum on April 19th to discuss the forms and impacts of forced marriage and provide key recommendations for policymakers and practitioners to address gaps, broaden perceptions, and disrupt binaries. This event launched a novel dataset documenting the use of forced marriage by non-state armed groups by IPI’s Head of Women, Peace and Security Program Phoebe Donnelly and PhD Candidate in Political Science at Duke University Emily Myers.
Pauline Brosch of UN Women provided a policy perspective and touched on strategies that the international community can take to better address forced marriage and other forms of conflict-related sexual violence. Teddy Atim of the Feinstein International Center, a practitioner and researcher of humanitarian emergencies and post-conflict settings, drew on examples of recovery from forced marriage in Northern Uganda to highlight multiplier effects, such as the likelihood of conflict-related sexual violence survivors experiencing ongoing violations in return communities.
The event aimed to help member states and UN officials align policies related to conflict-related sexual violence, like forced marriage, with the data and realities on the ground. Survivors must always have a seat at the table: “We can only address the root cause of forced marriage and other forms of conflict-related sexual violence if we involve survivors,” emphasized Victoria Nyanjura founder of Women in Action for Women and survivor of forced marriage.
In light of the discussions at the event, it is clear that there is a need for increased capacity and accountability. Forced marriage is a chronic feature of the political economy of war and takes place in contexts where rule of law has collapsed due to protracted conflict and instability, affirmed Alejandro Sánchez of the Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict.
The launch event took place a day before the conference entitled “Catalyzing Change: Ongwen, Sexual and Gender-Based Crimes, and Intersectional Feminist Practice in International Criminal Justice.” This conference, hosted by the Cardozo Law Institute in Holocaust and Human Rights, in partnership with UN Women and others, analyzed the impact of the ICC case The Prosecutor v. Dominic Ongwen on the treatment of forced marriage (and other sexual and gender-based crimes) in international law. Panelists at this conference included civil society and legal experts from Uganda, who were able to connect with key stakeholders in the UN community at IPI’s event.
Opening Remarks:
Jenna Russo, Director of Research and Head of the Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute
Speakers:
Phoebe Donnelly, Senior Fellow and Head of Women, Peace, and Security Program, International Peace Institute
Emily Myers, PhD Candidate in Political Science at Duke University and National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow (virtual)
Teddy Atim, Visiting Fellow at the Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Pauline Brosch, Policy Analyst, Peace and Security, UN Women
Victoria Nyanjura, Founder, Women in Action for Women (WAW)
Alejandro Sánchez, Deputy Team Leader, Programmes and Communications, Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict
Moderator:
Jenna Russo, Director of Research and Head of the Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute
Die Islamische Republik ist in eine kritische Übergangsphase eingetreten. Während die Führung sich auf einen Wechsel an der Staatsspitze vorbereitet, stellen weite Teile der Bevölkerung das gesamte System in Frage. Ein planmäßiger Übergang, der die bestehende Ordnung nicht gefährdet, hat derzeit oberste Priorität für Revolutionsführer Ali Khamenei. Mit dem sogenannten Zweiten Schritt der Revolution hat Khamenei bereits 2019 seine persönliche Vision für die Zukunft der Islamischen Republik verkündet. Im Zentrum dieses Zukunftsmodells steht die iranische Jugend. Die Konzentration auf die Jugend erklärt sich aus dem demografischen Wandel im Land, der wachsenden Kluft zwischen Gesellschaft und Staat und der Überalterung der politischen und klerikalen Eliten. Im Kern geht es um die ideologische Überführung des Staates von der revolutionären zur postrevolutionären Generation. Der Zweite Schritt soll dabei mit Hilfe einer neuen Generation radikaler Kräfte vorangetrieben werden. Das Zukunftsmodell zielt faktisch auf die Abschaffung der noch verbliebenen republikanischen Elemente des politischen Systems. Dabei wird die innenpolitische Sphäre als Arena eines gesellschaftlichen Existenzkampfes aufgefasst, in dem Liberalisierungsansätze nicht nur abgelehnt, sondern mit allen Mitteln bekämpft werden. Die gesellschaftspolitischen Vorstellungen der Islamischen Republik sind mit den Anliegen weiter Teile der Bevölkerung unvereinbar, besonders denen der jüngeren Generation. Doch der Staat ist entschlossen, das revolutionäre Projekt mit aller Gewalt durchzusetzen. Eine erfolgreiche Umsetzung ist fraglich. Neben einem möglichen Militärputsch bildet der anhaltende gesellschaftliche Widerstand das größte Hindernis für die vom Staat gewünschte Post-Khamenei-Ära.
Almost two years after the publication of the “Integrated Review”, the British government has updated its security strategy. This “refresh” is primarily intended to adapt to the rapidly advancing development towards a contested and fragmented global order. Without indicating a radical shift, the strategy specifies the British response to China and Russia and places a special focus on the role of partners as well as on national resilience. Following the leadership change in the British government to Rishi Sunak, the paper sets out a more pragmatic approach for future cooperation with the European Union (EU). In order to advance the implementation of the Integrated Review and strengthen Euro-Atlantic relations, Germany and the EU should seize the momentum and deepen their cooperation with London.
Many non-state armed groups use forced marriage during armed conflict. This practice has been documented across all geographic regions, in every decade since the 1940s, and across armed groups with many different ideologies. Yet while policymakers, scholars, and practitioners recognize forced marriage as an important form of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), there are no frameworks for conceptualizing the frequency and range of forms of forced marriage that occur in conflict.
To fill that gap, this paper introduces an original dataset tracking forced marriage in armed conflict and uses the data and illustrative examples to divide forced marriage in armed conflict into three types: member–member forced marriage, member–civilian forced marriage, and civilian–civilian forced marriage. This dataset can be a tool for policymakers and practitioners to understand the impacts of forced marriage in armed conflict and better design prevention strategies and survivor-centered responses.
The report concludes with an overview of existing policy, legal, and programmatic responses to forced marriage in conflict settings, including by non-state armed groups, and provides recommendations for how these responses can better address this complex phenomenon:
One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, certain assumptions about the utility of cyber operations during wartime can now be put to the test. Russian cyber salvos opened this war, but they failed to achieve their objectives in the face of a resilient cyber defender. Joint cyber/conventional warfighting is still hard to implement due to its uncertain effects, the potential for spill-over, malware development cycles, and differing operational tempos. Cyber operations against Ukraine have not (yet) achieved major strategic effects in reducing Ukraine’s capacity to resist. Additionally, Russian information operations targeting Ukrainian and Western audiences fell on deaf ears. The greatest value of cyber operations therefore still appears to lie in their intelligence and reconnaissance functions.