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Diplomacy & Crisis News

Le temps des claustrophiles

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 17/12/2015 - 16:24
Dédramatiser les questions de logement et de propriété dans une Amérique que ses crédits immobiliers pourris étaient en train de mener à la catastrophe, promouvoir une vie plus simple, plus équilibrée et plus écologique : le concept de tiny house avait tout pour séduire. / États-Unis (affaires (...) / , , , , , , - 2015/05

Quarante ans d'immigration dans les médias en France et aux Etats-Unis

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 17/12/2015 - 16:24
Emouvant quand il meurt dans un naufrage, inquiétant lorsqu'il perturbe l'ordre public, l'étranger dope toujours l'Audimat. En France comme aux Etats-Unis, le traitement de l'immigration se focalise de plus en plus sur les questions humanitaires et de sécurité, en épousant en général les exigences (...) / , , , , , , , , , , , , , - 2015/05

En Espagne, le changement par les villes ?

Le Monde Diplomatique - Thu, 17/12/2015 - 16:22
« Le ciel ne se prend pas par consensus, mais d'assaut », avait lancé M. Pablo Iglesias, qui allait être élu secrétaire général de Podemos, lors du Congrès inaugural de la formation, en octobre 2014. Son projet, ambitieux, visait à ravir d'emblée le pouvoir central pour mieux « renverser la table » . Il (...) / , , , , , - La valise diplomatique

The Risks of Rushing a New Libyan Deal

Crisisgroup - Thu, 17/12/2015 - 16:04
Diplomats are working at fever pitch to resolve the long-running crisis in Libya, with one eye on halting waves of refugees headed for Europe and the other on uprooting Islamic State from the North African coast.

A Civic Awakening in Guatemala

Crisisgroup - Thu, 17/12/2015 - 11:28
Few countries have done more, more quickly to combat corruption than impoverished, violence-wracked Guatemala. In less than a year prosecutors have linked nearly 100 officials and business people to schemes that may have robbed the state of more than $120 million in customs revenues, while earning fortunes in kickbacks.

L'internationalisme au temps de la Commune

Le Monde Diplomatique - Wed, 16/12/2015 - 16:17
La majorité des historiens situent le début de la Commune au 18 mars 1871, quand Adolphe Thiers décide de confisquer les canons de la Garde nationale. Or, si l'on commence, non par cette réaction spontanée, mais par les réunions de travailleurs de la fin de l'Empire, une tout autre image apparaît. / (...) / , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , - 2015/05

Le pétrole, un enjeu de la seconde guerre civile libyenne

Le Monde Diplomatique - Wed, 16/12/2015 - 16:17
Les deux gouvernements rivaux de Libye cherchent à contrôler les richesses pétrolières. La plupart des installations sont situées en Cyrénaïque et contrôlées par le pouvoir basé à Tobrouk et à El-Beida ; le gouvernement de M. Abdallah Al-Thani exige des opérateurs et des clients étrangers de ne traiter (...) / , , , , - Proche-Orient

Europe’s Terror Challenge

Crisisgroup - Wed, 16/12/2015 - 12:03
Islamic State gunmen brought death to the streets of Paris on November 13, leaving the European Union in a state of shock. This is a turning point at which Europe must decide how best to defend its way of life. The way forward should be guided by three principles: defending liberty, ensuring the equality of Muslim communities, and radically improving EU-wide security measures including exchange of information and defence of external borders - See more at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/twt/after-paris-europe-s-challenge#sthash.VYhBr0Vh.dpuf

The EU is Fostering Progress in Tackling Corruption

Foreign Policy Blogs - Tue, 15/12/2015 - 23:16

Via Richard Bistrong

Corruption is an affliction that blights much of the world. A perception study last year by Transparency International found that two-thirds of the world’s countries score below 50 on a scale from zero (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean).

For many former communist countries still undergoing a period of cultural and institutional transition, corruption is a major barrier on the road to achieving its goals. It hinders competitiveness and makes investment decisions more difficult, while adding additional layers of cost and diminishing the ability for countries to provide adequate levels of welfare for their citizens.

Despite its shortcomings, one of the greatest single achievements of the European Union has been its success at mentoring and assisting former communist and Soviet states in their bid to transition to a functioning Western style democracy.

Romania is an interesting example of this process. Following the country’s accession to the European Union in January 2007, the country’s efforts to tackle corruption were modest at best. An investigation in 2012 into corruption levels in Romania by the  European Commission expressed serious concerns over the political situation and the ability to comply with fundamental principles of the Union.

Recently, however, evidence of progress has been more encouraging. Last year, the country’s National Anticorruption Directorate (NAD) successfully convicted 1,138 leading public figures, including top politicians, businessmen, judges and prosecutors. Furthermore convictions against high-level politicians and businessmen saw a significant increase compared to 2013; a shift in the anti-corruption drive that has continued into 2015 and has had a substantial social impact. A 2015 poll suggested that 60 per cent of Romanians trust the NAD, in contrast to only 11 per cent who express trust in parliament.

Perhaps the most high profile individual to be tainted by the clampdown on corruption is the country’s former Prime Minister, Victor Ponta, who stood down last month following mass protests triggered in part by charges of fraud, tax evasion and money laundering leveled against him. Other notable examples include Romanian media mogul, Adrian Sârbu, who was charged last year with tax evasion, money laundering and embezzlement and who is expected to stand trial in February 2016.

Ponta and Sârbu’s cases are particularly interesting as they indicate the endemic nature of corruption as well as its ability to traverse national borders with seeming impunity. One of Sârbu’s most notable business partners was Ronald Lauder, former US ambassador to Austria and son of the cosmetics tycoon Estée Lauder. Quick to identify the significant opportunities presented by the nascent media industry in Eastern Europe, in 1994 Lauder founded Central Media Enterprise (CME). By 1997, the news and entertainment company owned TV stations in Slovenia, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine.

According to the New York Times, in Ukraine Lauder engaged with two local businessmen, Vadim Rabinovich and Boris Fuchsmann, whom the FBI and European law enforcement agencies suspect of having ties to Russian organized crime. In 2001 CME was investigated by US federal prosecutors over allegations it paid at least $1 million in bribes to Ukrainian officials for a valuable television license. These connections and allegations culminated in the magnate facing a lawsuit seeking $750 million in damages filed by rival broadcaster Perekhid Media Enterprises Ltd.

These examples demonstrate that while country’s like Romania have much work still to do in addressing rampant corruption, the fact that even serving Prime Ministers and leading international businessmen are no longer free from the spotlight of the justice system is enormously encouraging. The European Union deserves at least some credit for this transformation. It must not allow progress to slide.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How the Left was Won and Lost

Foreign Policy Blogs - Tue, 15/12/2015 - 17:38

The last 15 years has seen the creation of some of the most polarized media to ever exist in the last half century. The difference in perspective and truthiness from one media outlet to another is so divided that it has produced a narrative that can only exist in the solitudes of those who have a similar perspective. The common theme for all media and politically aligned parties is that their truth works against the elite.

Gaining a political foothold requires convincing  a polarized media and their supporters that the real stories are being hidden by some monolith of power, changing depending on who the elite of those opponents tend to be and their position of power in society. Both sides of the political spectrum have defined the battlefield of ideas that often do not exist as real societal issues.

If there is no single truth, lies can become powerful tools in an election. If lies can be legitimized, actions against opponents may go beyond simple media debates, shielding the application of justice and human rights if a criminal act can be silenced or validated.

The individual who wins the elections in the United States, France or Germany may be the one who can show not to associate with elites, even if they are some of the most wealthy and influential people to exist in those communities. A danger comes from over-reacting to someone who is the anti-elite as it turns simple media accounts into a mind numbing morass of phraseology and vitriol. The anti-elites put debaters in the position of being seen as defending an elite that works in the shadows against the interests of the general public.

This message might not resonate with the average citizen, but when their lives are directly affected or threatened, responses from either camp that tamp down discussions can promote grassroots support in the community against the ruling party at the time. Trends begin to play a more important role than policy as the latter fails to meet a certain standard of societal expectations. Those who last are those who are new to the game, and have been able to not use their power to corrupt or oppress. The left in Latin America, once considered a movement that would change North American dominance in the region, fell on their own sword for many of these reasons.

Brazil’s economic miracle was successful even before the rise in commodity prices wedded to a Chinese economic boom. Economic policy initially implemented under the former center right government before the electoral dynasty of the Worker’s Party (PT)  kept social policy in the forefront of the country’s agenda, while managing a balanced debt reduction strategy. Keeping the public debt under control and combining it with social programs placed Brazil to take full advantage of a commodities boom.

In recent years, the negative response to elitist international sporting events and the corruption that flowed between the PT and business elites has tarnished the party’s image and an confidence in President Rousseff’s government: her approval rates fluctuate around 10%. A citizen’s movement buoyed by an assertive judicial branch has gone beyond party politics in an effort to weed out corruption. Even former President Lula may be face criminal charges, and there is a strong popular movement to impeach President Rousseff.

Argentina was rocked by the death of a prosecutor investigating the former government’s tampering of information about an attack on the Jewish community. When he was found dead, documents revealed that he was on the verge of indicting President Cristina Kirchner herself, the populist leader of Argentina. In recent years, she had increasing difficulties to maintain her popular support and legitimize her socially-oriented, but fiscally irresponsible policy decrees. Her party recently lost an election to Macri, a pro-business candidate, with many in Argentina reorienting their distaste for an elite against the very government that routinely denounced the abuses of the high society.

Venezuela’s opposition gained a great deal of recent support aChavismo and President Maduro lost the public’s trust. Despite an intensive media campaign in Venezuela promoting the populist government, the degrading state of Venezuela’s economy, standard of living and several violent actions taken against opposition politicians threatened to rob Chavismo of its political legitimacy. It is not possible to promote a narrative in Venezuela that no longer reflects the real issues in society, and while Maduro is still President, he could be the last supporter of Chavez’s revolution to hold power in the country.

2015 represents the beginning of the fall of those alleged elites, whether or not they are truly those in power. Often, political campaigning places those elites into power, but corruption scandals and the subsequent investigations and monitoring may put pressure on leaders to take actions to the benefit of society. Corruption tends to have deep roots, so while the mainstream media chooses sides, hopefully an intelligent community and assertive judicial community will push against elites from both political camps.

Avec Thomas Piketty, pas de danger pour le capital au XXIe siècle

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 15/12/2015 - 16:10
L'analyse autant que la solution proposée dans « Le Capital au XXIe siècle », de Thomas Piketty refléteraient-elles la myopie du regard que nous portons sur le monde économique ? / France, Capitalisme, Économie, Finance, Fiscalité, Idées, Idéologie, Inégalités, Intellectuels, Libéralisme, Médias, (...) / , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , - 2015/04

Le Balai citoyen, sentinelle burkinabé

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 15/12/2015 - 16:10
Non violent, animé par des jeunes, le Balai citoyen incite les Burkinabés à s'engager. En octobre 2014, il a joué un rôle décisif dans la chute du président Blaise Compaoré. / Burkina Faso, Démocratie, Élections, Jeunes, Mouvement de contestation, Musique, Corruption - (...) / , , , , , , - 2015/04

Crisi libica e Stato islamico: quei pericoli di un patto affrettato

Crisisgroup - Tue, 15/12/2015 - 11:52
I diplomatici stanno lavorando febbrilmente ma ci sono pericoli derivanti da un processo veloce che consacrasse un governo di unità nazionale senza aver consolidato l'appoggio interno o affrontato questioni relative alla sicurezza

US and UK Team Up to Power African Clean Energy

Foreign Policy Blogs - Mon, 14/12/2015 - 21:54

Cheap solar panels are transforming the energy sector in developing countries worldwide

A landmark collaboration between the UK’s Energy Africa initiative and America’s Power Africa campaign has been launched to bring clean electricity to millions of people across the African continent.

The UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) Minister Nick Hurd announced the new partnership in December in collaboration with his US counterpart, USAID Associate Administrator Eric Postel.

Hurd commented: “No one can tackle Africa’s energy challenge alone… The U.S. has led the way over the past few years with its Power Africa campaign. Together with our Energy Africa campaign we can boost access to reliable, clean and affordable household energy, helping millions of people to lift themselves out of poverty.”

The two organizations’ combined efforts will aim to leverage private investment to develop power sharing networks between African countries and tap their unused resources, such as geothermal power, to increase locals’ access to electricity.

It is estimated that around 600 million Africans still lack electrical power at home, holding back businesses and development.

A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the two countries at a special event arranged by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and New Climate Economy, at the recent UN climate change conference in Paris.

USAID Associate Administrator Eric Postel said: “In partnership with DFID… We can help accelerate Africa’s path toward economic and environmental sustainability.”

The MoU commits Energy Africa and Power Africa to work together in a number of key policy areas, including expanding off grid energy, boosting investment in clean energy through joint projects, and improving female participation rates in Africa’s energy sector.

The UK’s campaign has historically focused on boosting the household solar market throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with the ultimate goal of creating universal energy access across the region.

Energy Africa claims to have signed up six African countries to cooperate on reducing policy and regulatory barriers to cross-border market expansions in the household solar energy market. This includes regional superpower Nigeria. Discussions with eight more African governments are still ongoing.

Meanwhile America’s Power Africa has sought to create 60 million electrical connections in sub-Saharan states by unlocking local resources of wind, solar, geothermal and natural gas resources. The project also aims to add at least 30,000 megawatts of new, cleaner electrical power capacity to the area.

Together the two organizations believe the new joint initiative will help strengthen donor coordination and stimulate efforts by local governments, foreign donors and private businesses to meet the Global G7 in Africa target of delivering affordable, sustainable clean energy to the continent’s citizens.

It comes as a historic $100 billion package of measures were agreed between Western governments and the leaders of emerging and developing countries to combat climate change and keep global temperatures well below a 2 °C rise.

Green technology is rapidly emerging as a potential challenger to traditional fossil fuels as a cheaper, cleaner means of providing power to developing countries worldwide. With many newly emerging states like China now looking to cut down on pollution in at home, countries which have not yet created a traditional electrical infrastructure may be poised to avoid earlier pitfalls as they seek to join the ranks of economically developed countries.

 

Chaos in Libya: It's the oil, stupid

Crisisgroup - Mon, 14/12/2015 - 16:44
UN-led negotiations to unite the divided country — it has two parliaments, two governments, two militia coalitions that have been competing for control of a rapidly failing state since summer 2014 — are stalling. Fighting continues apace in Benghazi, the city that was the first to rebel against the rule of Muammar al-Gaddafi in 2011 and is now a byword for extremism. The Islamic State is growing by the day in the Gulf of Sirte in the center of the country, imposing its cruel dictates and making inroads elsewhere in the country. Criminal gangs – often the same militias that have had the run of the country since Gaddafi’s fall – are doing a brisk trade in people smuggling, sending off desperate migrants and refugees on rickety boats across the Mediterranean.

En Libye, ce n'est pas le chaos, c'est la guerre

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 14/12/2015 - 16:04
Dans un contexte de violences entre factions rivales, les négociations entamées sous la houlette des Nations unies se poursuivent, tandis que la présence de groupes affiliés à l'Organisation de l'Etat islamique renforce l'éventualité d'une intervention étrangère. / Libye, Monde arabe, Conflit, (...) / , , , , , , , , , , , - 2015/04

En Libye, ce n'est pas le chaos, c'est la guerre

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 14/12/2015 - 16:04
Dans un contexte de violences entre factions rivales, les négociations entamées sous la houlette des Nations unies se poursuivent, tandis que la présence de groupes affiliés à l'Organisation de l'Etat islamique renforce l'éventualité d'une intervention étrangère. / Libye, Monde arabe, Conflit, (...) / , , , , , , , , , , , - 2015/04

(インタビュー) 暮れゆくテロの年 国際危機グループ会長、ジャンマリー・ゲーノさん

Crisisgroup - Mon, 14/12/2015 - 12:36
相次ぐテロ、出口の見えないシリアと中東の国々の内戦、膠着(こうちゃく)状態のウクライナ情勢——。危機に包まれて、2015年が間もなく暮れる。私たちは今、歴史のどんな局面にいるのか。2016年に希望はあるか。紛争解決に長年携わるジャンマリー・ゲーノ氏を、パリ同時多発テロ後の緊張が続くブリュッセルに訪ねた。

Les Échos : « Pétrole : l’ère de l’abondance »

Politique étrangère (IFRI) - Mon, 14/12/2015 - 10:13

Le 11 décembre dernier, Les Échos ont consacré, sous la plume de l’éditorialiste Jacques Hubert-Rodier, un article au nouveau numéro de Politique étrangère (n°4/2015), et plus particulièrement à l’article écrit par Marie-Claire Aoun, responsable du Centre Énergie à l’Ifri, « Une ère nouvelle d’abondance pétrolière ? ».

« Le propos : Mauvaise nouvelle pour la COP21 : le monde est peut-être entré dans une ère d’abondance énergétique. Ce qui n’est pas fait pour encourager les économies d’énergie fossile. Les cours du pétrole devraient être maintenus à un faible niveau au moins jusqu’en 2017. Mais si la situation du marché pétrolier aujourd’hui peut faire penser au contre-choc de 1986, Marie-Claire Aoun, directrice du centre énergie de l’Ifri, discerne dans son article publié dans « Politique étrangère » un certain nombre de facteurs différents. Le principal est « l’essor fulgurant » des pétroles de schiste. Ce qui fait des États-Unis un producteur d’appoint sur le marché mondial, un rôle dévolu jusqu’à présent à l’Opep. Mais d’autres facteurs jouent. Depuis 2014, les craintes d’une rupture des approvisionnements du Moyen-Orient se sont apaisées. De plus, l’Iran pourrait faire son grand retour dès 2016. Sans oublier le ralentissement de la demande chinoise. L’interrogation. Depuis l’été 2014, l’Arabie saoudite semble bien décidée à faire baisser le cours du pétrole pour éliminer les énergies les plus coûteuses, avec dans le collimateur les schistes américains. Entre août 2014 et août 2015, 60 % des appareils de forage ont été éliminés. Mais, grâce à des gains technologiques, la production américaine ne fléchit que légèrement. Jusqu’à quand ce jeu durera-t-il ? « L’équation pétrolière est si complexe que tout exercice de prévision s’avère vite périlleux. » En attendant les pays producteurs sont les grands perdants. »

Retrouvez l’article de Jacques Hubert-Rodier sur Les Échos.fr. Accédez à l’intégralité du texte de Marie-Claire Aoun ici.

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