Diplomacy & Crisis News

India and Russia recently failed to agree on moving forward on a joint air transport project.

The United Nations health agency today announced that the South-East Asia Region has completed five years without any case of wild poliovirus, a highly infectious disease that invades the nervous system and for which there is still no cure.

Coup d'Etat, garde présidentielle contre armée loyaliste, manifestations civiques et barricades faisant reculer les putschistes, interruption puis relance de la transition politique ouverte par le départ sous la pression populaire du président Blaise Compaoré en octobre 2014... Les événements de (...) / Afrique, Afrique australe, France, Capitalisme, Conflit, Démocratie, Démographie, Développement, Économie, Élections, Géopolitique, Inégalités, Relations Nord-Sud, Pauvreté, Politique, Sahel, Afrique de l'Ouest, Néolibéralisme, Coup d'État - 2015/10

Etre ou ne pas être « Charlie » ? Dans la semaine qui suit le massacre, la question serpente comme une traînée de poudre de salles de cours en salles de rédaction. / France, Audiovisuel, Censure, Identité culturelle, Idéologie, Information, Libéralisme, Médias, Presse, Racisme - (...) / France, Audiovisuel, Censure, Identité culturelle, Idéologie, Information, Libéralisme, Médias, Presse, Racisme - 2015/02

Krieg ist auf dem Vormarsch. Das zeigt der Blick zurück, denn seit rund fünf Jahren steigt weltweit die Zahl der Konflikte und damit der Opfer und der Flüchtlinge. Dies wird sich wohl auch in diesem Jahr fortsetzen, mit alten und neuen Kriegen. Nur Kolumbien bietet Anlass zur Hoffnung.

Nearly 24 million children living in crisis zones in 22 strife-torn countries are being deprived of a school education, threatening their own future and that of their societies, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reported today.

(Own report) - Whereas Berlin is attacking the Polish government because of its media law; massive criticism is being raised against the German public broadcasting. While German politicians are calling for sanctions to be imposed on Poland, because it is placing its public media under government supervision, a right-wing conservative former CDU minister has become Chair of an influential panel of Germany's ARD public television channel. Observers note that, even after the Federal Constitutional Court's intervention, state officials or individuals with close government ties exercise significant influence on the public broadcasting steering committees. Due to their structural relationship to the state, on the one hand, and the programs' political orientation toward government policy, on the other, one could speak of "embedded journalism" in Germany, a former correspondent of the ZDF public television concluded a few years ago. The journalist went to work for the Swiss Television, because it does not have "a NATO state's obligatory alignment." The German public television's foreign news reporting is even increasingly being accused of using falsifications.

Despite considerable progress in Mali, the United Nations peacekeeping chief today warned that the peace process in the country remains fragile, and stressed the need to urgently defeat political, security and humanitarian challenges.

Trump’s “Making America Great Again” echoes Reagan’s “Let’s Make America Great Again” (Photo credits below)

Part 1 of 2: Can Trump win?

The United States is preparing to introduce a critically important new variable to its foreign policy: a new President. Despite continuing predictions of his campaign fading, Donald Trump remains a viable candidate and therefore important to the global community. President Ronald Reagan’s path to victory in 1980 might serve as a model for Trump’s eventual election. But if elected, will Trump’s foreign policy also echo Reagan’s?

Reagan was elected by reaching voters outside the Republican Party—”Reagan Democrats.” Like Trump, Reagan was already widely known before he ran in 1980. He was a film actor beginning in the late 1930s into the 1950s. He served as the president of the Screen Actors Guild during the Congressional inquiries in Communists in Hollywood. A former radio sportscaster, he bolstered his all-American image as a spokesman for General Electric in the 1950s. In the 1960s, he became a Republican, and gave a popular speech for presidential candidate Barry Goldwater. Reagan himself ran successfully for California governor in 1966 and 1970, and unsuccessfully for president in 1968 and 1976.

Trump’s large personality, eponymous hotels, 1987 New York Times bestselling book, and popular television program, The Apprentice, have made him widely known. But in 2011, he also had the highest rates of unfavorability of any potential candidates. Trump lacks political experience, compared to Reagan and to most of his current rivals. But the other Republican frontrunners in the race so far have been a neurosurgeon with no political experience and a first-term Senator, while nine sitting or former governors from states like New York, Florida, Texas, and Ohio have been essentially non-factors.

The context in which Reagan ran in 1980 was also central to the election, though. The United States was at the end of two decades of upheaval: the assassinations of President Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr., the civil rights and anti-Vietnam War movements, President Nixon’s resignation, and economic “stagflation.” The taking of American hostages by Iranian revolutionaries, two oil-price crises, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan made the Middle East a complicated and controversial political, economic, and security issue.

In 2016, the United States enters its 16th year of fighting in Afghanistan, and nearly as long in Iraq, while Taliban, ISIS, and other difficulties persist. The long, slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis is threatened by the global stock market plunges of early January 2016. Police shootings, immigration, and health insurance are politically divisive social issues. The rise of China, Russia, and Iran increasingly erodes the hegemony the United States held for the decade after the Cold War ended.

Will the personality of Trump and the context of American and global politics create a dynamic like the one that elected Reagan?

The first step is within his own Republican Party. (Candidates of each party compete during this winter and spring for their party’s nomination, beginning in the rural state of Iowa on February 1. Parties could essentially make their choices by March 1, “Super Tuesday,” when 12 states hold their contests, or continue as late as June.) Trump leads a party that is older, whiter, more Christian, more Southern, and more male than the Democratic Party. His nationalism and brashness—he has made insulting comments recently about women, immigrants, Muslims, his own national party organization, and even American prisoners of war—appeal at least in tone to a plurality of Republicans. Each insult generates punditry on his imminent decline. But unlike the 2012 campaign where several Republicans cycled through the top spot and out of the race, Trump has so far held his lead over several months.

The next step would be in the general election, presumably against Hillary Clinton. She has a strong resume: active First Lady, U.S. Senator from New York, and Secretary of State, in the national spotlight for more than 20 years. She is potentially the first female president, following the first African-American president. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, was and remains very popular among Democrats, but the effect of his history with women is a wild card. Like Trump, though, she has high unfavorables, along with an open investigation into her handling of State Department email, and lingering questions about what happened during the attacks on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi.

What does Trump needs to defeat her? Reagan received 26% of the Democratic vote in 1980, compared to 10 and 7% for the Republican candidates in 2008 and 2012. Reagan got 54% of independents, 48% of moderates, and 36% of Hispanics—all much higher than the Republicans in 2008 and 2012. Trump doesn’t just need Republican turnout; Trump needs Democrats.

Turnout numbers are always difficult to predict. Presidential elections get higher relative turnouts among Democrats than during off-years: President Obama’s elections were followed by historic Republican Congressional gains in 2010 and 2014. Will Hillary Clinton be able to get Obama’s supporters to come out a third time?

It is the race to 270 electoral votes, not a popular majority, that ultimately matters. Democrats are seen as holding a big advantage in “safe states” months before any votes are cast. A December 2015 poll by CNN put Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in the South and the Midwest, and behind in the Northeast and West. It put him ahead in rural areas, behind in urban areas, and tied in suburbia. The key “swing states” of Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Colorado are divided among these categories, not persuasively favoring either candidate. Can Trump win enough of these swing states with the help of Democratic voters? One recent poll offers that Trump could get 20% of the Democratic vote.

U.S. elections are typically close: The last seven presidential elections have been won by an average of 5% of the vote (49-44); the last three by 3.5% (50.6-47.1). Only once since World War II have Americans elected the same political party three times consecutively: Reagan-Reagan-George H.W. Bush, 1980-1988.

History suggests much stands between today and the November 2016 election. In January 2008, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll gave Hillary Clinton a 15-point lead (47–32) over Senator Obama. Throughout 2007 New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani led the Republicans, until Mike Huckabee and then John McCain took leads in early 2008. For the moment, it looks like Clinton vs. Trump—very different candidates, each with high negative ratings, and in a pattern in American presidential elections where the final popular vote is close. If Trump were to win the nomination, he has a chance at the presidency.

Part 2 will consider what a Trump foreign policy might look like.

Photo credits: Reagan poster , 1980 Republican Convention, Trump in cap.

Still photo from ISIS Indonesian recruitment video (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

The start of 2016 has been a foreboding one for countries facing the threat of terrorism, following attacks last Thursday in Paris and Cairo, and again last Friday on the coast of Egypt’s Red Sea and in Philadelphia, all claimed by followers of the Islamic State (IS). Whether these attacks were coordinated or the acts of lone wolves is uncertain at this time, as is the extent of the IS networks operating in these countries.

While much of the media attention is focused on the threat of IS to Americans, Europeans and North Africans, less attention is being paid to the citizens of Southeast Asian nations. Southeast Asia is home to about 15% of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, many of whom have gone to fight in Iraq and Syria under the banner of IS, or have been radicalized while at home.  One such Southeast Asian country on the forefront of the battle against IS is Indonesia, home to the world’s largest Muslim population, which has over the past year successfully crushed militant cells.

In December, Indonesian authorities announced a string of raids had led to the capture of nine IS sympathizers suspected of planning bomb attacks and the seizure of bomb-making equipment found across the island of Java. Authorities suspect the bombs were to be used in attacks against President Joko Widodo, government offices, and public landmarks.

Borobodur, the world’s largest Buddhist temple and a UNESCO World Heritage Site, had seen increased security after an apparent bomb threat by IS-affiliated Islamists last year.  There are an estimated 1,000 Islamic State sympathizers across a population of 250 million in Indonesia, many of whom are returning from fighting with IS in Syria, radicalized and battle-hardened.  The IS representative leadership is thought to be based in Solo, a city in the center of Java, known as a hotbed for Islamic unrest.

Indonesia has banned support for Islamic State and warned its citizens against joining IS, although most of its Muslim population practices a moderate form of Islam. Indonesian nationalism is founded on the doctrine of Pancasila, which stresses pluralism and diversity and strongly opposes the establishment of an Islamic state.  The leader of the country’s al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Abu Bakar Bashir, pledged his allegiance to the Islamic State from his jail cell in August (JI was behind the Bali bombings in 2002 that killed 202 people).

While Indonesia is not publicly declaring their support for airstrikes against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, they are not dismissive of the threat which IS poses across the Indonesian archipelago. Some of their citizens have homegrown grievances and are likely to be emboldened by the success of IS and declare ties to the terrorist organization, potentially traveling to Iraq and Syria or carrying out terrorist actions at home.

More worryingly, battle-hardened militants returning from Iraq and Syria may bring both skills and networks with which to join forces with locals (or foreigners)—Malaysian authorities are already expressing concern over networks forming between Malay-speaking militants from Malaysia and Indonesia, who have formed a combined fighting unit in Syria, and whom may join forces once home.

Greater efforts at intelligence-sharing, such as that which took place in December among Indonesian authorities, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Australian Federal Police, should be encouraged throughout Southeast Asia. The potential of IS to threaten Indonesia and the rest of Southeast Asia is real and should not be minimized—after all, returning militants from the Afghan war against the Soviet Union from 1979–1989 were responsible for the founding of both Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines and JI in Indonesia, both of which are still active today.

Il y a 50 ans, Mehdi Ben Barka était enlevé à Paris par deux policiers français. Idéologue prolifique, travailleur acharné, rassembleur charismatique, l'opposant marocain ne pouvait pas disparaître si facilement. En tout cas pas dans les consciences de générations de militants. / Algérie, Amérique (...) / Algérie, Amérique latine, France, Maroc, Colonialisme, Histoire, Idées, Idéologie, Mouvement de contestation, Personnalités, Services secrets, Cuba, Socialisme, Maghreb - 2015/10

Face aux dangers du traité de libre-échange transatlantique, une résistance s'organise des deux côtés de l'océan, jusqu'au cœur des collectivités territoriales. / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Europe, Citoyenneté, Commerce international, Économie, Libéralisme, Mondialisation, Mouvement de (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Europe, Citoyenneté, Commerce international, Économie, Libéralisme, Mondialisation, Mouvement de contestation, Politique, Associations, Néolibéralisme, Relations bilatérales - 2015/10

On the surface, 2015 came to a close in a moment of relative tranquility after a turbulent year for China’s neighborhood. But the calm is misleading: the optics of regional diplomacy have become increasingly detached from the reality of the underlying tensions; this risks obscuring deepening fault lines.

Cette recension d’ouvrages est issue de Politique étrangère (4/2015). Denis Bauchard propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Ahmed Qurie (« Abu Ala »), Peace Negociations in Palestine. From the Second Intifada to the Roadmap (Londres, I.B. Tauris, 2015, 320 pages).

Ahmed Qurie, plus connu sous le nom d’Abu Ala, était un proche de Yasser Arafat et fut un acteur majeur de la vie politique palestinienne. Négociateur des accords d’Oslo en 1993, présent aux rendez-vous manqués de Camp David, il continua de jouer un rôle important comme président du parlement puis comme Premier ministre, jusqu’à la victoire du Hamas aux élections de 2006. C’est un homme de dialogue, qui a cru à la possibilité d’un accord sur la base des deux États. Ce livre fait suite à deux autres ouvrages qui se rapportent à la période 1993-2000, et couvre la période 2000-2006. Par-delà son titre, il retrace toute l’histoire des événements qui se sont déroulés pendant ces six années, riches en péripéties et marquées de violences.

Le point de départ est l’échec de Camp David, qu’Abu Ala a très mal vécu. En effet, le président Clinton et Ehud Barak blâment les seuls Palestiniens. Naturellement, Abu Ala récuse cette analyse et, de fait, comme l’a révélé plus tard Robert Malley, qui a participé à la négociation du côté américain, les choses étaient plus complexes, et les torts au moins partagés. Cependant, après cet échec, les négociations reprennent à Taba en janvier 2001, sur la base des « paramètres de Clinton » : un texte est alors élaboré. Le négociateur palestinien et l’envoyé spécial de l’Union européenne Miguel Moratinos estiment que l’on était très proche d’un accord. Mais on est à la veille des élections israéliennes et l’arrivée au pouvoir d’Ariel Sharon rompt la dynamique de la négociation.

Dès lors, les violences s’enchaînent. La seconde intifada, dont le catalyseur a été l’irruption de Sharon sur l’Esplanade des mosquées le 28 septembre 2000, prend de l’ampleur après sa prise de fonction. Ces années sont donc marquées par un contexte très défavorable à de véritables négociations : l’ensemble de la Cisjordanie est de nouveau occupé, les camps de Jenine et Naplouse sont « contrôlés », l’armée israélienne investit Ramallah et fait le siège de la résidence d’Arafat, un « mur de séparation » est construit à l’est de la Ligne verte, les colonies de peuplement se développent à Jérusalem-Est comme en Cisjordanie.

Ce contexte aurait pu tuer toute tentative de négociation. Mais l’auteur montre comment le fil des contacts n’a jamais été perdu. Dès décembre 2001, une rencontre secrète a lieu entre Abu Ala et Peres, à l’époque ministre des Affaires étrangères de Sharon. On évoque l’action de l’administration Bush pour débloquer la situation : envoi au Moyen-Orient de Colin Powell, commission Mitchell, mission Tenet, mise en place du Quartet et définition de la Feuille de route. Mais la négociation s’enlise, voire agonise, faute de véritable volonté politique.

Abu Ala décrit de façon lucide cette période et ses tentatives de négociation, ne cachant pas que, du côté palestinien, de nombreuses erreurs ont été commises et que l’influence des éléments les plus radicaux a pesé lourd dans la recherche d’un accord. Tout en étant un acteur engagé, il évoque les positions de ses interlocuteurs en termes mesurés, faisant une large place aux déclarations et documents publiés de part et d’autre. C’est le livre d’un homme de bonne volonté, dont les déclarations récentes montrent qu’il ne croit plus à la solution des deux États, alors qu’il en était un défenseur déterminé du côté palestinien.

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

(Own report) - High-ranking German politicians are calling for punitive measures against Poland. The Polish government's measures neutralizing the country's constitutional court as well as its new media laws are "in violation of European values," according to Volker Kauder, Chair of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. The EU member states must now "have the courage to impose sanctions." Earlier, EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger called for Poland to be placed "under supervision." Even though the new media law, formally placing public service media under direct government control, are in fact more drastic, the forms taken by this official media control are already widespread throughout the EU. Hungary is not the only country to have enacted a media law, a few years ago, showing striking similarities to the new Polish law. Former President Sarkozy had also adopted similar measures in France. The French rulers still exercise considerable influence over public service media. However, particularly in Germany, with its hubris in seeking to discipline Poland, sharp criticism is frequently raised against the state and state parties' control of the public service media.

Influentes auprès de la gauche radicale espagnole, les réflexions de l'intellectuel argentin Ernesto Laclau, promoteur d'une forme renouvelée de populisme, appellent une lecture critique. / Argentine, Espagne, Europe, Démocratie, Idées, Idéologie, Intellectuels, Mouvement de contestation, Parti (...) / Argentine, Espagne, Europe, Démocratie, Idées, Idéologie, Intellectuels, Mouvement de contestation, Parti politique, Politique, Socialisme, Extrême gauche - 2015/09

Le plan d'aménagement et de développement durable de la Corse doit être soumis au vote de l'assemblée territoriale cet automne. Ce texte, qui renvoie à la question de la relation des Corses avec le milieu naturel, implique aussi de revenir sur une forme d'organisation sociale singulière. / Corse, (...) / Corse, France, Agriculture, Identité culturelle, Mer, Mouvement de contestation, Nationalisme, Politique, Région, Tourisme, Urbanisme, Environnement - 2015/09

X. Panon, Dans les coulisses de la diplomatie française. De Sarkozy à Hollande, L’Archipel, Paris, 2015
Paru dans le dernier numéro de la regrettée revue Alternatives Internationales. Merci à toute l'équipe pour ces années de lecture partagée. FCh------------
Dans un récit complet, Xavier Panon (RMC, BFM, La Montagne...) nous offre un bon livre de journaliste sur la politique étrangère de la France de 2007 à 2015, soit sous le quinquennat de Nicolas Sarkozy, et la première partie du mandat de François Hollande. Il s’inscrit là dans une veine (Albert du Roy, Hubert Coudurier...) utile pour qui souhaite garder une mémoire des bilans présidentiels globaux de l’action extérieure.
L’ouvrage comprend quatre parties, qui reprennent d’abord l’affrontement de style entre les sixième et septième chefs d’Etat de la Ve République, puis les conflits dans lesquels la France s’est trouvée engagée (Géorgie, Côte d’Ivoire, Libye, Afghanistan, Irak-Syrie, Mali, Centrafrique), les questions européennes, enfin les grands dossiers géographiques bilatéraux (Etats-Unis, Russie, Chine, Japon, Inde, monde arabe, Golfe, Israël, Iran, Afrique).
L’originalité vient naturellement de la comparaison Sarkozy - Hollande, dont il ressort certes les oppositions (alimentées par les témoignages nombreux des conseillers respectifs), mais également les continuités, qui datent même d’époques antérieures (Nicolas Sarkozy avait déjà entamé une relation de proximité avec l’Arabie depuis novembre 2009 ; Jacques Chirac, comme Premier ministre en 1974 puis comme Président en 1995, s’était déjà considérablement rapproché du Qatar). Le mélange de rappel des situations géopolitiques dossier par dossier, et d’anecdotes sur la politique conduite par la France, donne un résultat parfois déroutant par son aspect fragmenté, mais qui au final retranscrit bien cette ambiance décousue, dictée par les changements de priorités incessants au fil de l’actualité internationale, qui caractérise la pratique de la politique étrangère au XXIe siècle.
L’accès de X. Panon aux principaux acteurs de cette politique (conseillers majeurs, plusieurs ministres, François Hollande lui-même) a bien entendu son revers : en choisissant de retranscrire les informations données par les auteurs de la politique ainsi chroniquée, la critique, même le recul, deviennent plus difficiles. Ils ne sont pas absents toutefois, et plusieurs incohérences ou valses-hésitation, de chacune des deux équipes au pouvoir, sont soulignées. Cette proximité des acteurs a par ailleurs le mérite de faire vivre la diplomatie française en chair et en os, mettant en lumière le travail difficile des équipes (comme J-D. Levitte sous Sarkozy, Romain Nadal sous Hollande), et des ambassadeurs (François Gouyette alors en Libye, ou bien d’autres encore).
On peut - toujours - plaider pour plus de synthèse, plus de transversalité, plus de décryptage, regretter que certains dossiers ne soient pas davantage approfondis (L’OTAN, l’Afrique...). Mais l’ouvrage se lit comme un roman, l’enquête est minutieuse, et la fresque de la politique étrangère de ce début de XXIe siècle est réussie.F. Charillon

En septembre, le chef de l'Eglise catholique doit visiter Cuba, puis les Etats-Unis, après avoir œuvré au rapprochement de ces deux pays. Ces deux dernières années, François, premier pape non européen depuis treize siècles, a décentré le regard de l'Eglise sur le monde. / Capitalisme, Christianisme, (...) / Capitalisme, Christianisme, Écologie, Économie, Mondialisation, Religion, Vatican, Diplomatie, Environnement - 2015/09

En transformant des particuliers possédant un véhicule en chauffeurs occasionnels sans statut, la société Uber n'a pas seulement suscité la fureur des taxis professionnels : son nom symbolise désormais le lien entre nouvelles technologies et précarisation. Et si les dirigeants politiques reprenaient (...) / États-Unis, Capitalisme, Économie, Entreprise, Informatique, Internet, Libéralisme, Multinationales, Technologie, Transports, Privatisation - 2015/09