Diplomacy & Crisis News

Le long des ruelles pavées de La Havane, un touriste court derrière une mélodie. Tierno, alias El Palenque, natif de Guinée, installé à Paris, mais dont les racines maternelles sont cubaines, espère qu'en retrouvant l'origine de la chanson qui lui trotte entre les oreilles depuis l'enfance, il (...) / Afrique, Caraïbes, Culture, Histoire, Littérature, Cuba, Guinée - 2015/09

Aux Etats-Unis, un arrêt de la Cour suprême a supprimé en 2010 la plupart des restrictions aux donations politiques. Depuis, les grosses fortunes affichent sans pudeur leurs faveurs. Pour sa part, le milliardaire new-yorkais Donald Trump a préféré entrer lui-même dans l'arène… / États-Unis, États-Unis (...) / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Iran, Israël, Démocratie, Élections, Finance, Parti politique, Politique, Relations internationales, Diplomatie - 2015/09

Le DJ et compositeur britannique Matthew Herbert est avant tout associé à l'univers de la dance culture. Mais la quinzaine d'albums qu'il a publiés ces vingt dernières années vont du jazz aux expérimentations les plus extrêmes en passant par la house music, des bandes originales pour le théâtre, le (...) / Royaume-Uni, Agriculture, Agroalimentaire, Animal, Art, Capitalisme, Culture, Multinationales, Musique, Commerce - 2015/09

Dans les marais, « deux chiens se battent pour un bout de barbaque ». Il s'agit, vu de plus près, d'une main. Ce pourrait être le début d'un polar ; mais il va s'agir d'un crime autrement plus important : la mise à sac d'un pays, l'Espagne. Dans une petite localité balnéaire, non loin de Valence, (...) / Espagne, Capitalisme, Culture, Littérature, Mutation, Société - 2015/09

Au pays du Cerf Blanc, la rivalité séculaire entre les clans Bai et Lu perturbe gentiment le cheminement des saisons. Dans ce village sis à une journée de marche de la cité de Xi'an , les deux chefs de clan entretiennent les codes et les rites d'une Chine impériale dont ils ignorent la (...) / Chine, Histoire, Bande dessinée - 2015/09

Dans Tout peut changer , la journaliste canadienne Naomi Klein livre sa prise de conscience du lien entre capitalisme et changement climatique. La brutalité de l'exploitation des hydrocarbures au Canada, où elle réside, lui apparaît comme un élément de l'« écocide », cette guerre globale contre la (...) / Capitalisme, Écologie, Économie, Entreprise, Finance, Multinationales, Mutation, Pétrole, Matières premières, Climat, Environnement, Gaz naturel - 2015/09

(Own report) - In view of the NATO Summit scheduled this year in Warsaw, the deployment of nuclear arms against Russia is being discussed within the German military and think-tanks. The Federal College for Security Studies (BAKS), for example, accuses Moscow of "neo-imperial aggression" against Eastern Europe and calls for a revival of the "nuclear deterrence" strategy. According to BAKS, the idea of a nuclear weapons-free world should be considered as "unrealistic" - after all, "disarmament is not the primary raison d'être of a nuclear weapon." The government-affiliated German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) sees it similarly, and opposes particularly a general ban on nuclear weapons, proposed by a United Nations working group. Such a "nuclear arms ban treaty" would be in contradiction to NATO's role as a "nuclear alliance," SWP claims. It would, however, be "conceivable" to strengthen the" linkage between conventional and nuclear capacities" and the "inclusion" of nuclear arms "in exercise scenarios."

There is often a great deal of information available about injustices done against groups that are in dire need of assistance. Most of these ethnic minorities are known to be in a predicament by the international community. The starkest failure after the lessons of the Second World War and atrocities in the Balkans was the incapacity of the international community to take actions to prevent a modern genocide in Rwanda.

With further atrocities taking place in Iraq and Syria, the international community must stop the oppression against certain groups. Indeed, the lesson of Rwanda has been almost entirely ignored in 2015. Political leaders actively obscure discussions on genocide and media coverage does little to prevent another humanitarian disaster. A defined obligation is required to cut through the rhetoric.

Not assisting those in need is not considered a crime in most legal traditions. It would be difficult to prove that an individual was aware of the need and level of care required in order to successfully help a victim. In the event that members of the international community would be legally obligated to help, there must be some definition of who would be deserving of such assistance.

The group in need first has to be known to be in a situation where a possible genocide may take place. The international community, once aware of the threat, must be shown that assistance can be provided to the group in need. Finally, the capability must exist for that assistance to be successfully administered by the international community. While many regulations and laws exist to prevent genocide in modern times, there has been a lack of humanity and legislation used to save minority groups in Iraq and Syria.

Kurdish forces have often been alone fighting for the liberation of many minority groups in Iraq and Syria. The severe lack of support by Western allies and the Iraqi government  has allowed for a well-known genocide to take place in the region. Assistance to Kurdish forces has been requested openly for an extensive period of time with little assistance coming with the condemnation of atrocities.

Small militias have been assisting Kurdish forces while Western powers and the Iraqi Army lag behind. With knowledge of the situation, and the ability to help, the success that could take place in the fight against genocide in the region is shown by the Kurds themselves. Their small, badly equipped forces are losing soldiers and civilians are being murdered while world leaders continue to bicker. The international community should be liable for its lack of support and the deaths of innocent civilians.

The Yazidi question is one for the international community, as their extinction would be eminent without the assistance of Kurdish forces. The current debate on which American President or Presidential candidate has encouraged ISIS more does nothing to stop a genocide. The entire world  has knowledge of men, women, and many children being subject to rape, torture and death. Some groups have been successful in rescuing girls and women from ISIS who were previously taken as slaves.

To stop this atrocity, the international community is capable of taking action beyond using planes or placing climate issues above the lives of many communities that have existed for centuries. Rwanda should be taken as a reminder to Never Forget, yet again. If humanity as a whole can clearly state that genocide should be stopped without fail, without red tape, qualifications or justifications, then there would be no need for a legal obligation to act in the advent of a genocide. Rwanda’s genocide is taking place again, but in Iraq and Syria.

Reunir una lista de las guerras a las que más atención y apoyo debe prestar la comunidad internacional en 2016 es difícil, y no por buenos motivos. Tras el fin de la guerra fría, durante veinte años, el número de conflictos mortales disminuyó. Había menos guerras y mataban a menos gente. Sin embargo, hace cinco años, esa tendencia positiva se invirtió, y desde entonces cada año hay más conflictos, más víctimas y más personas desplazadas. No parece que en 2016 vaya a mejorar la situación de 2015: lo que está en alza no es la paz, sino la guerra.

Quand Lucien Sève est entré en politique, dans l'immédiat après-guerre, Friedrich Engels était mort depuis à peine un demi-siècle et Lénine, depuis deux décennies. En devenant communiste et en se revendiquant marxiste, le jeune agrégé de philosophie adhérait à un mouvement historique qui pouvait se donner (...) / Capitalisme, Colonialisme, Communisme, Histoire, Idées, Idéologie, Inégalités, Mouvement de contestation, Socialisme, Marxisme - 2015/09

Né en 1930, contraint à l'exil en 1975, l'Argentin Juan Gelman n'a cessé, jusqu'à sa mort en 2014, de dénoncer la dictature militaire qui a ravagé son pays et tué son fils, sa belle-fille et nombre de ses amis. Si les livres publiés en France depuis 1981 par des éditeurs clairvoyants lui ont assuré une (...) / Argentine, Art, Culture, Histoire, Langue, Littérature, Violence - 2015/09

Mécontent de ne pas avoir obtenu en juin une majorité à même de renforcer son pouvoir et ses attributions, M. Recep Tayyip Erdogan a convoqué de nouvelles élections législatives qui se tiendront le 1er novembre. Pour mettre toutes les chances de son côté, le chef de file des islamo-conservateurs durcit (...) / Europe, Iran, Proche-Orient, Syrie, Turquie, Élections, Guérilla, Islam, Kurdes, Minorité nationale, Parti politique, Politique, Kurdistan, Répression, Autoritarisme - 2015/09

« Je me sens proche de l'ordolibéralisme allemand d'après-guerre », a déclaré le président du Conseil européen, M. Donald Tusk, à propos du dossier grec. Née outre-Rhin il y a huit décennies, cette forme continentale de néolibéralisme étend son influence. / Allemagne, Europe, Économie, État, Finance, (...) / Allemagne, Europe, Économie, État, Finance, Histoire, Idées, Identité culturelle, Idéologie, Industrie, Monnaie, Politique, Protection sociale, Néolibéralisme - 2015/08

Conformément au théorème selon lequel toute crise européenne ne peut s'expliquer que par une insuffisance d'Europe, le drame grec a suscité une pluie de commentaires sur la nécessité d'accélérer l'intégration. Or, selon qui l'emploie, ce terme renvoie à deux idées diamétralement opposées. Pour les uns, (...) / Allemagne, France, Grèce, Idéologie, Politique - 2015/08

Vingt-cinq ans après, la vie quotidienne des Allemandes reste très marquée par les conceptions différentes de leur rôle qui régnaient des deux côtés du Mur. / Allemagne, Enfance, Femmes, Inégalités, Mutation, Protection sociale, Travail, RDA 1949-1990, RFA 1949-1990, Chômage, Droits des femmes - (...) / Allemagne, Enfance, Femmes, Inégalités, Mutation, Protection sociale, Travail, RDA 1949-1990, RFA 1949-1990, Chômage, Droits des femmes - 2015/05

(Own report) - With its own anti-Iranian policy, the West had prepared the basis for the aggressive stance Saudi Arabia is currently taking in relationship to Teheran. This becomes clear, when looking at the Middle East policy pursued by the West over the past 13 years. During that period, western countries, including Germany, have been systematically strengthening Saudi Arabia to make it a countervailing power in confrontation with an emerging Iran, a function previously held by Iraq. The West has not only been supporting Riyadh economically but also militarily, including with supplies of repression technology - also from the Federal Republic of Germany - to put down possible domestic unrest. In the meantime, however, Germany's interests have shifted and Berlin has assisted in reaching the nuclear agreement with Teheran. This will permit German enterprises to have close cooperation with Iran, promising high profits. This is why the German government now seeks to promote a settlement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and to induce Riyadh's acceptance of a "dialogue." Determined to continue its anti-Iranian course, Riyadh still rejects talking to Teheran.

Britain and China have been developing a closer relationship.

China and Great Britain have had a long but often fraught historical relationship with each other. The UK has been accused in recent years of sending the signal that it is willing to compromise its democratic values in its eagerness to deepen Chinese business ties with Britain.

Meanwhile, as a rising China has become the world’s second most powerful nation, the American-Chinese relationship has become more competitive recently, with pacts such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) seemingly designed to exclude China from membership. In turn China has launched its own charm offensive, the so-called ‘One Belt, One Road’ Eurasian development strategy, which it believes will see more Asian and Western countries follow in Britain’s footsteps and join Chinese-friendly institutions and trading blocs.

The UK wishes to participate in both China’s One Belt, One Road projects and remain close to America on matters such as European security or cross-Atlantic trade like the proposed Transatlantic Trade & Investment Pact (TTIP). While China’s rise is complicating the position of unbroken hegemonic authority the U.S. has enjoyed in East Asia for the last 70 years, Britain relinquished Hong Kong, its last significant position there, in 1997. It no longer possesses the strength to substantially alter the balance of power in the region and has more to gain from staying out of the numerous security disputes littering East Asia.

Above all the UK needs to avoid being dragged into controversies such as America’s hostility to China’s naval expansion in the South China Sea. Although Beijing’s position on the issue is in violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which it has ratified, such territorial disputes should remain confined to the regional states which sustain them.

America and China will continue to compete with each other over security arrangements in the East Asian region and for economic influence globally. Despite the renewal of conflict in the Middle East and the return of Russian adventurism there and in Europe, in the longer term China is the state actor that matters and Asia is the battlefield of 21st century superpower rivalry.

East Asian relations in particular are often seen through a U.S.-China lens, with Beijing’s foreign policy interest towards European nations such as the UK thought of as being limited. Therefore the UK’s recent moves have surprised Western observers: London shocked its U.S. ally when it unexpectedly joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in March 2015. The UK government has made improving Sino-British relations a priority ever since 2013, when Beijing put UK-Chinese ties into the deep freeze in response to the Dalai Lama’s visit to Downing Street.

While the UK government has correctly gauged that China is an indispensable global partner, it has miscalculated the relative strengths of the two sides’ bargaining positions. The willingness of the UK government to allow Chinese investment into the UK in sectors such as nuclear power, ease visa restrictions, and reduce criticism of human rights has been causing increasing unease at home and abroad. As a second-tier global power Britain will exercise significant political influence with Beijing only if it works through its partners in Europe to negotiate the terms of its engagement there. The present solo negotiation with China, whilst trying ineffectually not to annoy its main America security partner, is a fragile policy which will crumble at the first serious crisis it encounters.

Instead the UK would achieve more of what it wants, and give away less political capital in the process, if it managed Anglo-Sino relations through a European mechanism such as the EU-China summits at Brussels. Much as Europe has come together to deal with Russia’s use of gas as a strategic weapon, this slow but collective foreign policy method is a surer way of dealing with an economically indispensable but politically awkward nation like China.

The UK remains a key financial centre for Chinese businesses and its firms still have close ties to the Chinese overseas territory of Hong Kong. But it is the European Union as a whole which is China’s largest trading partner, and Beijing is the EU’s second largest partner after the US. After Asia, Europe was Chinese people’s biggest destination for overseas travel, receiving 3.43 million Chinese visitors, an increase of 10.4%.

The EU has become China’s biggest source of imports, now trading at well over €1 billion a day. In short it is Europe as a whole, rather than any individual member state, which is an influential partner in Chinese eyes. While China is trying to diversify its economy away from reliance on manufacturing, the size of the EU’s market makes it too important for Beijing to simply ignore.

Britain has already been a great beneficiary of China’s economic rise over the past three decades and it is in the UK’s national interest for this blossoming relationship to continue. Over ten years alone imports grew from £11.4 billion in 2004, to £37.6 billion in 2014. China has become the UK’s second largest import partner behind America, now accounting for 7.0% of all UK imports in 2014, compared with just 3.3% in 2004.

As Beijing opens up its service sector to foreign investors, analysts have predicted Britain’s foreign direct investment (FDI) assets in China could rise hugely in worth from £6.6 billion in 2014 to a possible £25.6 billion by 2020. Indeed the UK’s Chancellor George Osborne has set himself a target of making China Britain’s second biggest trading partner by 2025.

China and Britain therefore have a joint interest in developing greater Sino-EU integration, despite the history of trading rows between the trading bloc and the superpower. The UK has been supporting Chinese efforts to develop the yuan as global trading currency, anticipating British financial services will be one of the main beneficiaries of the appearance of off-shore yuan trading markets.

Reflecting this, the UK government has proposed schemes to study connecting the stock markets in Shanghai and London, and to reach a free-trade pact between Beijing and the EU. Analysts speculate that with the UK’s specialization in financial services, health care, clean technology and life sciences, Britain is well positioned to gain from Beijing’s shift towards a more services- and consumption-based economy if Britain can leverage its position within the EU to tie China and Europe closer together.

By choosing the European route instead of the bilateral one to negotiate its trading relationship with Beijing the UK maximizes its leverage with both its European partners and China, which is useful for a medium-sized ex-colonial power. By minimizing the concessions it needs to make to China on sensitive issues such as Tibet or Xinjiang, Britain can also avoid alienating other important partners like Washington.

Irritants such as the long-running dispute over the South China Sea have been inflaming the US-Sino discourse again and hostile attitudes are always easy to find in a period in which US politicians are running for the Presidency. Beijing has also complicated matters for itself by adopting a strident and an uncompromising tone over its territorial issues that has alarmed its neighbors and international opinion in recent years.

China remains a difficult nation for Western governments to deal with politically, but a vital one for their companies and economies. The greatest diplomatic challenge for the EU in the 21st century will be how to harmonize Chinese-European relations without alienating America. London can play a pivotal role in this as the channel through which China’s currency and businesses reach the global status that its leaders crave for reasons of national prestige.

But in order to have the political muscle to do so it will have to work with other European leaders on the continent instead of seeing them as competitors for Chinese investment. For this reason Britain’s leaders may find their China goals achievable only if they focus their flexible bargaining skills much closer to home and ignore the temptations to head straight to Beijing to cut deals ahead of their European partners and rivals.

 

Incumbents are in trouble these days. The opposition is winning, from Argentina’s Macri, Venezuela’s MUD to Nigeria’s Buhari. But the opposition who takes power rarely is able to maintain its grip on it for more than a few months; France’s Hollande and Egypt’s Morsi are examples. Politics is not what it used to be: power has become more elusive than ever before.

When oppositions win by significant margin, the  tendency is for sweeping changes. The previous regime’s symbols are torn down. Its leaders are investigated, arrested and prosecuted for corruption. Policies are thrown out the window. New constitutions are drafted and the previous regime is kept out of politics.

Instant action to prove that all of the previous regime’s wrongdoings will be wiped off and that the new government will turn a brand new chapter is the norm. This has happened in Sri Lanka since the Mahinda Rajapakse regime was toppled by Maithripala Sirisena on January 8th. Over the past year, Sirisena has realized that turning the page is never as easy as they promised on the political stage.

However in stark contrast to the situation in Sri Lanka, Myanmar has taken a different path thanks to Nobel Prize laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) won 77% of the upper and lower house seats that were contested. In the end, the NLD won 124/224 in the House of Nationalities (Amyotha Hluttaw) and 255/440 in the House of Representatives (Pyithu Hluttaw).

This gives them the majority required to appoint the President and Vice-President and pass new legislature without compromise by overcoming the military plus USDP bloc. But surprisingly Suu Kyi has chosen to compromise with the incumbent military-led regime rather than using her newly found power to wipe the slate clean.

Some may find this surprising and even claim that she is not using the mandate provided to her with utmost confidence by the people of Myanmar for change; change that removes the military from the machine of governance. But she is following the strategy that will bring about the best for her country and people.

Promoting pragmatism and realism might stem from her genes and from the lessons learned in 15 years of house arrest. Her genes because her father, also fathered her nation—the Union of Burma—bringing together a country divided between various factions during the colonial era and World War II. He achieved it through sheer pragmatism, not through a democratic mandate. If Aung San had not been assassinated, maybe Myanmar’s fate would have been much different today.

Now, his daughter has the chance to right the wrongs. But it cannot be done overnight. It will take decades and she knows it. She also knows that her personal fame and charisma can be utilized to sustain the popular mandate required for political stability.

Suu Kyi’s realism has sometimes looked liked ignorance and cruelty. She remained steadfastly silent over the plight of the Muslim Rohingyas, fearful of harming the Buddhist majority vote. Maybe she knew that the only way to make things better for the Rohingyas in the long run was to ensure she won by a large margin and change the governance structure for the better.

She also refrained from giving any specific policy promises on how she will improve Myanmar’s situation. She did not promise to prosecute the military for its crimes or corruption. She only asked for a chance to change things. This is in stark contrast to Sri Lanka, where specific promises of prosecution against graft of the previous regime and more welfare to the people have put the new regime between a rock and a hard place. Suu Kyi is in a hard place but she does not have a rock rolling towards her. She has the liberty to chart a course without breaking any electoral promises.

Currently she is holding ‘transition talks’ with the military (Tatmadev in Burmese) and the leaders of the incumbent regime. Officially the NLD will take over power in February. This prudent act is aided by both Suu Kyi’s pragmatism and, strangely, the military-drafted constitution. The constitution ensured that the new government cannot take over power immediately after an election, and that the military had a strong say in government despite a massive electoral loss. It was this guarantee of holding on to a piece of the pie after the transition that ensured a smooth transition.

Worldwide, we have seen bloody transitions of power from autocracy to democracy. Most were bloody because idealism wanted to chase away evil completely. The de-Baathification in Iraq post-2003 is a very good example. In the attempt to create a democratic Iraq, Baathists were completely removed from every level of governance in the country; from military to bureaucracy. The results has been a weak, unprofessional army and government agencies that are unable to provide public services. The Baathists ended up leading insurgent groups and collaborating with ISIS.

Democracy is yet to take root in Myanmar. One successful election that gives a landslide victory to one party thanks to the charisma of one individual is hardly democracy. Democracy needs to deepen. For that, stability must prevail and people need to feel secure. Only then will the NLD get its legitimacy and politicians will be seen in a more positive light. This is a vital issue if political entrepreneurship is to happen in the future.

The NLD is used to being in the opposition, rallying public rage against the Tatmadaw. Its not used to governing a country of 50 million people. Even Suu Kyi has not been in the role of an administrator for a long time. Her work at the UN was decades ago.

The Tatmadaw and USDP have individuals well-versed in the intricacies of governance. Their methods might have been flawed at times, but their experience and their connections are vital.

Suu Kyi will have to continue to employ a strict sense of pragmatism. Acting on emotions and passions is a nonviable option. Idealism is a flawed approach to apply in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw and the USDP have committed crimes and atrocities. They have looted the country’s wealth and resources. Over time investigations will have to be carried out on those matters.

But not everyone will be prosecuted. Not every war criminal who harmed minorities can be prosecuted. Some figures with a considerable grasp on power cannot be simply chased out of power. If Suu Kyi tries that, she might end up being the devil she is fighting. Surely Kissinger and Bismark would support this point of view. As a nation matures it needs pragmatic leadership and realist policies. Suu Kyi seems to have understood that.

(Own report) - Saudi Arabia can use German technology of repression and skills provided by the German police for the suppression of its opposition, which last weekend culminated in a mass execution. In recent years, the German government has authorized the supply of telecommunication surveillance products to Riyadh, worth more than 18 million Euros. The German Federal Office of Criminal Investigation organized, among other things, training courses in counter-terrorism for Saudi Arabia's GID intelligence service. Saudi Arabia even treats non-violent protests by its heavily discriminated Shia minority as "terrorism." The German Federal Police is training Saudi border police officers within the framework of an official project, formally approved in 2009 by Germany's Interior Minister at the time, Wolfgang Schäuble. According to reports, the training includes exercising the use of assault rifles and crackdowns on demonstrators. It has also been provided, at least temporarily, to members of the religious police force. This cooperation in repression is an element of a comprehensive economic cooperation guaranteeing German enterprises large sales and billions in contracts. Above all, it serves Berlin's strategic Middle East policy objectives.

Kurdish peshmerga stand guard on the outskirts of Kirkuk in June 2014. Photo credit: REUTERS/Ako Rasheed

Iraqi Kurdistan is protected by its fierce and respected military forces, the peshmerga. Yet, each of the two main political parties in the Kurdistan Regional Government—the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—controls its own peshmerga regiments.

The peshmerga only answers to the party they are tied to, with both the KDP and PUK using its control of the peshmerga to gain influence over other political agencies.

As examined by Mario Fumerton and Wladimir Van Wilgenburg for the Carnegie Endowment for Peace in December 2015, plans have existed for decades to merge and unify all peshmerga forces under one Kurdistan government agency that could effectively command all soldiers.

Calls for this were made in 1991 after the region separated from Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and were renewed in 2014 as ISIS advanced towards Kurdistan’s capital Erbil. However, it hasn’t happened yet and significant roadblocks remain.

Fumerton and Van Wilgenburg delved into the complicated history of, and challenges to, successfully consolidating the peshmerga. Especially given ISIS advances in Iraq, a strong and united peshmerga is critically important to the stability of Kurdistan and the region at large.

What is more, without a unified peshmerga unplagued by political partisanship, “Iraqi Kurdistan cannot become a consolidated democracy, preventing it from eventually winning international recognition as an independent state.”

The authors also recommended that the U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq dissolve its current party-based peshmerga training academies and in their place initiate a single training facility for all peshmerga.

Dealing with peshmerga armies separately is just one indication of how Kurdistan “politics are dominated by militarized parties.” Kurdistan is unlikely to gain much support for recognition as an independent state if this political environment persists.

Given the ongoing reliance on peshmerga in the fight against ISIS, strengthening the peshmerga organizational structure and unifying their oversight would provide a much more stable basis of operations. Coalition forces would be wise to make this a priority.