Diplomacy & Crisis News

France’s train conductors are icons of the country’s 20th-century history. That's exactly why the French president is targeting them.

U.S. coal exports have exploded. Can that continue?

A Paris, le linguiste et militant américain Noam Chomsky a prononcé plusieurs conférence. Les débats avec l'assistance ont donné lieu à de riches échanges sur les questions d'actualité. Extraits. / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Iran, Israël, Économie, Idées, Parti politique, Politique, Conflit (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Iran, Israël, Économie, Idées, Parti politique, Politique, Conflit israélo-palestinien - 2010/07

En avril, en France, les états généraux de la sécurité à l'école ont mis l'accent sur les portiques détecteurs d'armes et la présence policière dans les établissements. Un simple regard sur l'expérience new-yorkaise aurait pourtant douché cet enthousiasme sécuritaire. / États-Unis (affaires intérieures), (...) / États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Éducation, Sécurité, Police, Violence - 2010/06

A woman is seen near posters placed at a bus stop in support of Brazilian former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva, in Brasilia, Brazil, January 22, 2018. A sign reads: “Lula innocent, Lula indecent”.REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino

While difficult to measure a few months before elections are to take place, major national and regional changes are coming to the Americas, with votes likely determining the future economic and security focus of the region.

When considering NAFTA, it could be that the waves created by Trumps bargaining approach may be less of a challenge than electoral change on the US border. With Mexico having a Presidential election this year, and the next President of Mexico having one term of six years to focus on their policy file, any agreements between NAFTA partners may be re-set depending on who wins the Mexican election. It is really difficult to determine who will win in Mexico, as the current establishment party of the PRI runs a young challenger while dealing with a strong push against corruption and security in Mexico. With the PRI being seen by many as skilled practitioners of corruption historically as well as during their last mandate, the field is open for the combined PAN and PRD candidate as well as Lopez Obrador, former left leaning mayor of Mexico City. Obrador may be an interesting choice as a left leaning popular elected official to determine the future of NAFTA negotiations, but will also likely create more uncertainty where popularly elected politicians have already created mixed reactions to NAFTA talks. The PAN and PRD joint party would be an interesting outcome, as a more regional conservative party linked with a social democratic party would make for some negotiated balance in policy, perhaps acting as a bulkhead against old style PRI institutional politics as well as the election of yet another populist leader. It will be a difficult choice with no stark contenders in this year’s Mexican election.

Brazil looks to be choosing Lula in their election this year, if he does not get banned or put in jail for past accusations of corruption. With the judiciary taking to task the entire elite structure in Brazil, it seems as if everyone has been touched by corruption, and the choice between one candidate and another is like choosing between an apple with worms or an orange with mold. Openly knowing about corrupt practices of a candidate and still being elected has occurred before in the Americas, but it is not a choice a voter would like to have as it is confirming a sense of hopelessness. The law of corruption if it was to be seen as a law of physics is that once it takes hold, it is nearly impossible to remove without an excessive response. With Brazil’s judiciary going above and beyond their role as a separate branch of government, their cleaning out of their elite and institutionalized corruption has also created a political ripple effect where interested parties and have and have-nots have taken to politicize the great purge of the elite. With all of the chaos and uncertainty, it could be that the comfort and stability during Lula’s past terms in office might propel him back into office, even if he was shown to be one of the corrupt elite himself. It seems as if the law of corruption might yet again be proven.

An election in one of the largest and the most indebted region in North America, if not the world, is taking place in Canada’s own Ontario. After 15 years of the same government and massive eye watering debt and a legal sentencing coming for a former Chief of Staff coming this month, the seat of the most skilled practitioners of corruption may have a challenger. With the Premier’s approval rating narrowing towards the single digits, the Liberal Party of Ontario’s leader decided to pile on the debt by promising everything to everyone, costing inexplicable amounts more to which the Auditor General of Ontario took to challenging, along with credit rating agencies as well as citizens in Ontario from Small Business owners to Doctors to those who were recently unable to fund heating their homes a few winters ago. The effect of taking half of Canada’s economy and piling on taxes, debt and accusations against anyone who disagrees with these absurd debt laden promises will have a questionable effect on NAFTA. Raising taxes when you have record debt to preserve the political careers of a handful of failed politicians unmeasured against a US economy with low business taxes is tantamount to ignoring the laws of economic theory when you are applying the laws of corruption. With Ontario also being the economic glue that holds divisive regions together in Canada, targeting the energy industry in Alberta and asking an economically growing Quebec to pay into Ontario’s debt will create fractures in the Canadian Federation mirroring the current state of affairs in Catalonia. Accusing others of taking personal actions to cover bad decisions as well in Ottawa also will not help reduce any of these problems.

With the election of the new President in Venezuela being wholly determined by the current President of Venezuela, corruption clearly demonstrates its path to one party state rule. It is clear where corrupt practices have lead, but to move on from them may prove to be more difficult than just promising everything, looking to the past or just being a bit less corrupt than the next person running for office. As it seems, the laws of corruption tend to stand firmly in place.

The post Voting Against the Law of Corruption appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

The best-selling psychologist isn't leading young men to salvation — he's delivering them to authoritarianism.

Depuis le développement des médias, le pouvoir politique a tenté d'exploiter au mieux de ses intérêts leur fonction de communication, le plus souvent en s'efforçant de réduire leur accès à l'information, parfois, au contraire, en laissant à dessein se propager quelque information indiscrète qualifiée de (...) / Royaume-Uni, Guerre des Malouines 1982 - 1985/07

The announcement of a new prime minister has led to widespread celebrations, but reforming the country without alienating the army will not be easy.

The outgoing national security advisor took one last swipe at Putin’s efforts to undermine Western democracies.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro de printemps de Politique étrangère (n°1/2018). Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, directeur du Centre Énergie de l’Ifri, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Agnia Grigas , The New Geopolitics of Natural Gas (Harvard University Press, 2017, 416 pages).

Cet ouvrage arrive en principe à point nommé : les marchés du gaz naturel connaissent des bouleversements profonds depuis que les États-Unis sont en passe de devenir l’un des premiers exportateurs de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) au monde, tout comme l’Australie. Les fournisseurs traditionnels, Russie ou Qatar, font face à l’arrivée de nouveaux concurrents transformant des marchés jusqu’alors très régionaux en un marché de plus en plus global. Mais l’analyse laisse une place prépondérante à l’offre tandis que les bouleversements liés à la demande sont négligés.

Or c’est là que se joue en grande partie la nouvelle géopolitique des marchés gaziers : les discussions et politiques de la transition énergétique menées dans l’Union européenne (UE), et qui vont redéfinir le rôle du gaz naturel à l’horizon 2050, sont complètement sous-évaluées. Pourtant l’UE est et restera le troisième marché gazier mondial. Il en va notamment du rôle du gaz pour la production d’électricité dans un bouquet électrique décarboné, des gaz renouvelables, et des enjeux liés à la mobilité propre. À l’échelle globale, la géopolitique du gaz est aussi bouleversée, côté demande, par l’arrivée de nouveaux importateurs de GNL dans les pays émergents.

D’une manière générale, c’est la question du rôle des consommateurs qui mériterait d’être aussi au centre d’une telle analyse : sont-ils prêts à acheter le gaz à n’importe quel prix, en Europe, en Chine ou dans d’autres pays émergents ? Comment faire face à la concurrence du charbon peu cher et souvent disponible en abondance comme ressource intérieure pour la production d’électricité dans de nombreux pays émergents ? À quelles conditions le gaz peut-il jouer un rôle clé dans la transition énergétique ? Quel peuvent être ce rôle, et ses conséquences, pour les producteurs et les investisseurs ? Quels bouleversements dans les équilibres cela implique-t-il ? Qui dans le monde détient encore des ressources pouvant être développées et mises sur les marchés à des prix compétitifs ? Et quels nouveaux systèmes d’approvisionnement, ou technologies, sont amenés à jouer un rôle clé ?

En revenant longuement sur l’histoire des exportations américaines de GNL, le rôle de la Russie et de l’Ukraine comme pays de transit, ou encore celui des producteurs de la Caspienne, l’ouvrage n’apporte pas d’éléments analytiques ou informationnels nouveaux, et ces enjeux sont déjà connus et documentés. Ce qui tend à faire de cet ouvrage une énième analyse descriptive qui n’apporte pas les bonnes clés pour répondre aux grandes questions d’aujourd’hui, pour cette industrie ou au niveau des politiques publiques. L’ouvrage prédit un recul de l’influence russe du fait de l’érosion des parts de marché de Gazprom dans ses marchés traditionnels : en 2016 et 2017, le gaz russe vendu par Gazprom ne s’est jamais aussi bien porté sur les marchés européens. Le gaz russe est plus compétitif que le GNL, notamment américain, qui s’est pour l’instant vendu dans les pays émergents.

Si les aspects de demande pour le GNL américain en sont presque réduits à l’analyse des capacités de regazéification disponibles dans le monde, l’ouvrage a cependant quelques mérites : celui de souligner que l’émergence des États-Unis comme l’un des principaux exportateurs de GNL va renforcer la sécurité des marchés gaziers car les exportations américaines seront très flexibles, susceptibles de répondre rapidement à des variations de prix partout dans le monde.

Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega

Pour vous abonner à Politique étrangère, cliquez ici.

Two events, just minutes apart, had very different messages.

The party’s massive experiment in ranking and monitoring Chinese citizens has already started.

The United States and Europe must find a synthesis between the free trading dogmas of yesterday and the nationalist impulses of today.

The United States should help its Latin American ally become a member of the OECD.

A force de cadeaux fiscaux, d'absence de régulation et de laxisme environnemental, les conservateurs au pouvoir en Alberta ont transformé le nord de la province canadienne en un supermarché du pétrole sale. / Canada, Aborigènes, Entreprise, Amérindiens, Industrie, Pétrole, Santé, Environnement, (...) / Canada, Aborigènes, Entreprise, Amérindiens, Industrie, Pétrole, Santé, Environnement, Pollution - 2010/04

They're young, untested — and, if they play their cards right, they can transform the EU.

With a tight vote looming, lawmakers hope to extract the outgoing CIA chief’s pledge to restore a damaged State Department.

The annual full session of the National People’s Congress, which began on 5 March, sees President Xi Jinping on the way to becoming China’s “Emperor” for life.

Following the party’s Central Committee proposal of eliminating the limits for the country’s president from the constitution – currently set at a maximum of two consecutive terms – Xi is likely to remain China’s leader and rule well beyond 2023, when his five-year mandate would previously ahve come to an end.

A one-man show

In last year’s party congress, it became clear that a new era was born under Xi Jinping and he has no intention of stepping down in the future. His name and political thought theory, Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, were added to the party constitution.

“Xi Jinping has finally achieved his ultimate goal when he first embarked on Chinese politics – that is to be the Mao Zedong of the 21st century.”

– Willy Lam, political analyst at the Chinese University in Hong Kong

Xi’s presidency has been marked by an increasingly powerful cult of personality, along with a dangerous lack of political opposition and a dismal human rights record. In fact, other than being President of the People’s Republic of China, he also serves as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and as Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

As Xi holds the top offices of the party, the state, and the military, and with the previous party congress ending without appointing a clear eventual successor, it is not difficult to see why some describe him as “China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao”.

Since Xi became president of China in 2012, his strongman image has played a key role in determining China’s domestic and foreign policies. At the domestic level, his ruthless anti-corruption campaign has become a stronghold of his consolidation of power. Used to intimidate or eliminate cadres and party members who disagree with him or represent a threat to his political ambitions, Xi Jinping’s campaign has been leading him to finally achieve his sought after one-man show.

Xi’s assertiveness is also evident at the foreign policy level. From showing off China’s hard power in the South China Sea, to its increasingly strong soft power projections in the form of billions of dollars invested in Asia and Africa, Xi Jinping’s China is more powerful and influential than before.

Emperor for life

The 64-year-old leader could now be only one step away from tightening his grip on China and stay in office indefinitely. News regarding the presidency term limits broke in a two-sentence article on 25 March, as reported by Xinhua, China’s official newswire:

“The Communist Party of China Central Committee proposed to remove the expression that the President and Vice-President of the People’s Republic of China ‘shall serve no more than two consecutive terms’ from the country’s Constitution”.

If this reform proposal encounters zero opposition at the National People’s Congress, it is fair to accept that China will continue to move forward according to Xi’s thoughts, economic reforms and political strategy. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the party-run tabloid, Global Times, tweeted that the “removal of the two-term limit of the president of PRC doesn’t mean China will restore life-long tenure for state leader”. However, this unexpected announcement is likely only the beginning of an even more prominent crackdown that will affect China’s standing in the international community.

The state propaganda machine, which was immediately put in motion after the announcement to respond to the social media backlash, has not been able to mitigate the concerns of the economic and social risks linked to this reform. Given Xi’s already heavy-handed approach on China’s economy and his government’s clampdowns on freedoms – such as online censorship and human rights abuses – his “emperor for life” status doesn’t come without risks.

Heading towards a “One China, One System”?

The next challenge for Beijing will be the aftermath of the Hong Kong elections from March 11th. In the crossfire of criticism for the disqualification of activist Agnes Chow – representative of the pro-democracy party Demosisto, Xi Jinping’s government is accused of infringing the “One China, Two Systems” model that allows Hong Kong to hold a certain degree of political autonomy.

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs, Patrick Nip, agreed to review Hong Kong’s electoral laws in the wake of a recent court ruling that granted officials’ power to ban candidates because of their political views. Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in Hong Kong is undeniable.

During the Party Congress held in October 2017, Xi Jinping reaffirmed Beijing would not allow anyone to “separate any part of the Chinese territory from China”. Fast forward to today, his statement can be interpreted as a constitutional reform by extending Xi’s mandate and, therefore imply a much-feared transformation towards a “One China, One System” model.

The post Xi Jinping: China’s Emperor for life? appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

In its attempts to control Uighurs abroad, the Chinese government is holding families hostage.

En 1968, quatre ans après le déclenchement de l'escalade américaine au Vietnam, de grandes manifestations antiguerre parcouraient les Etats-Unis, servant à cristalliser toutes les révoltes progressistes de l'époque. Les rassemblements pacifistes devinrent alors tellement massifs qu'ils obligèrent le (...) / États-Unis, Irak, Iran, Israël, Guerre du Vietnam 1959-1975, Mouvement de contestation, Pacifisme, Salvador, Nicaragua - 2007/07