Diplomacy & Crisis News

Political Rally during Brazil’s latest election: REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli

It was shocking to see what had occurred in a local election in a city in my country. A grassroots candidate won because the sitting government representative took to marginalizing certain groups and dividing the community over the last few years. This was done in order to garner majority political support for his chosen candidate. Many of those issues affected everyone’s grandparents and dealt with violence against women, especially diverse women in the community. The candidate did not choose to be supportive of those in the community, but was intentionally divisive to the point of actually accusing a grassroots pro-elder support group of committing illegal acts with no evidence in order to slander them in the community.

While in the above example the community was able to push back against the sitting Government representative and his established allies, the tactic of alienating the other in the quest for a position of power goes against the most basic freedoms established in any healthy democracy. So limiting are some of these restrictions now in a G7 nation, that it would be difficult to even discuss them openly. When you have the feeling that openly presenting your balanced opinion and criticism of your Government would make you identify with characters in a Cold War novel, you are not in possession of your Constitutional rights.

It is essential that this tactic of alienating the other as an election strategy become a thing of the distant past, as the alternative is most likely mutually assured conflict. In recent elections in the Americas the results are almost an even split. In Colombia’s recent election, the left wing candidate was able to pull off a victory despite successive Conservative and anti-cartel governments dominating Colombia’s political landscape and policy discussions for a generation. The end result of the election split came close to 50/50, and this narrow lead assure a Presidential victory. What will be key is to not target the other fifty percent of the population as the “other” in policy discussions, to not label them with terms that minimize their perspective and local issues, nor dehumanize them as a public relations exercise.

The most divisive election result in the Americas took place recently with the final run off vote in Brazil. While Ex-President Lula was able to secure a victory against now Ex-President Bolsonaro, it was by the narrowest of margins and many regions still secured regional seats from Bolsonaro allies. Lula, who came from Brazil’s labour movement, was popular in the past as he tried to secure more labour rights and socially progressive policies while implementing a balanced economic file that differed slightly from his fiscally conservative opposition at the time. With a world recession approaching, Lula will have to try and convince Brazilians that his past successes can be repeated. Lula will have to follow an economic policy that will not place its citizens in a situation of high inflation while burying any image of corruption from his administration. The issue of high inflation is what will likely hurt Biden in his upcoming midterm elections and has placed Canada’s governing party at the lowest levels of popularity in eight years.

Divisive politics often dominates the lingua franca around elections because dividing people might work for votes, but it marginalizes small interests groups in a society and actually seeks to deny them their basic rights. As we saw locally in my town, women who were threatened and assaulted needed to be reminded that despite being told they would not receive help by those in charge, they had the rights to be safe in their community. The phrase “Women get attacked all the time” should never be the common response from leaders in a community. Citizen’s rights are not abolished by being assaulted, nor can they be eliminated by the local politician’s opinion or even the police who gave a lackluster response to safety in the area. Even in the realm of international policy, these local policy tactics affect how a country approaches human rights issues abroad. Freedom cannot exist when a government dehumanizes its opposition for its own political gain.

IRGC’s Unrelenting Attacks On Iraqi Kurdistan – Several Kurdish children taking shelter following an attack by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards

NATO and Western countries have spent much of the year supplying Ukraine with systems that would defend attacks from advanced Russian systems while slowly integrating offensive systems into the mix. The offensive systems given to Ukraine by NATO and Western allies were often tactical, allowing Ukraine to target key Russian military infrastructure so that the process of further attacks on Ukrainian territory would be limited.

The recent strike by Iranian made drones by Russia sought to terrorize the population in Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine, without much tactical value beyond terror. While these systems are a new development in Eastern Europe, similar attacks have been carried out using Iranian systems, and Ukraine has been targeted by them for a second time in recent history. A response by Ukraine and their allies would be appropriate, and should be done inconsideration and in support of Iran’s current freedom movement.

As recently as 2020, Iran used a defensive missile system to shoot down a Ukrainian airliner filled mostly with Canadian passengers, other internationals and a Ukrainian crew. Little has been done on the international stage or by the Canadian Government to appropriately address the crime, nor to give due justice to the victims and their families of the atrocity. This did not phase negotiations Western countries had with Iran’s regime at the time. The response was to distribute more missiles abroad that were also used against civilian populations. The recent drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians comes during a time where there is a passive silencing on the protests in Iran by Western media, and a limited response in aid of protests despite past administrations admitting their grave errors in not supporting past movements.

While there should be a limited amount of engagement by Western countries in the affairs of other nations, when human rights and justice are involved, the values that dominate the lives of those in the West should support like minded movements in countries where help has been justifiably requested. The allowance of terror weapons without a response leads to more oppression against local populations and those abroad. A Government cannot allows its people to be targeted, nor should they turn a blind eye to the suffering of those under the chains of oppression in another country. This simple notion of justice can save millions.

A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative strengths and the state of the conflict today.

You may recall that in the very first chapter of the Art of War Sun Tzu presents the reader with Seven Searching Questions that should be asked in order to make predictions about which side will win out. This article will revisit each of Sun Tzu’s questions in order to evaluate the accuracy of the initial assessments and consider where we might look for key developments in the coming weeks and months.

The first question that Sun Tzu poses is “Which sovereign is imbued with the moral law?” In a more modern phrasing, Sun Tzu is asking us which side has the greater and more durable morale. 

There is no doubt that Ukrainian nationals, even in the aftermath of a brutal bombing campaign that targeted civilian centers, are far more commited to the conflict than their Russian counterparts. In truth, one of the conflict’s “silver linings” may be the emergence of a newfound Ukrainian nationhood which could be channeled toward combating the corruption that ensnared Ukraine in the past. While there have always been pockets of resistance to Putin’s autocratic governance within Russian society, the “mobilization efforts” that were initiated in September have caused that discontent to spread toward the broader Russian populace. Similarly, Russia’s international support has dwindled as was clearly displayed by the overwhelming rejection of Putin’s  “referendums” in eastern Ukraine at the United Nations.

The larger question surrounding Ukrainian morale may, in fact, come from beyond Ukraine’s borders as partners in Europe may find themselves squeezed between supporting Ukrainian sovereignty or choosing lower gas prices following a series of tense elections and in the midst of a cold winter.

What impact does potentially reduced support have on the morale of the Ukrainian troops?

Sun Tzu’s second question is “Which of the generals have the most ability?” The meaning of this question is just about as obvious as its answer. 

Few topics have received as much attention as the incompetence of Russian leadership through the course of this conflict. The early stages of Russia’s advance were slowed by logistical problems which have only become more severe as the conflict has dragged on. More recently, Russian military officials were duped into a dramatic shift of forces to the southern front which enabled the UA to reclaim a significant amount of territory in the north of their country in mid-September. The Ukranians have exploited the failures of Russian leadership by targeting individual Russian commanders- numerous Russian military officers have been taken out in targeted strikes. This crisis in Russian leadership is amplified by reports that Putin himself has taken on an increasingly large role in military planning- a troubling sign for those with a keen historical memory.

The next question is one of the more straightforward- we are told to ask “With whom lie the advantages of the heaven and the earth?” Sun Tzu reminds us to consider the basics of battlefield terrain.

The Ukranians continue to benefit from their densely forested defensive positions and have made a nightmare of river crossings for any would-be advancing Russian forces. The clear advantage goes to the Ukrainian defenders on this matter, and given the nature of this question, it should be little surprise that little has changed here since our first assessment.

Fourth, Sun Tzu tells us to consider “On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?” 

Discipline might be more rigorously *enforced* on the Russian side, but even with that in mind there is little doubt that the men and women serving in Ukraine’s defense have behaved in a far more disciplined and orderly way. While there are regular stories of Russian soldiers refusing to carry out war crimes or sabotaging their local commanders, Ukrainian artillery forces have shown themselves capable of autonomous strikes with a deployment time that puts America’s own efforts to shame. 

It is a sad reality that war brings out the worst of people, and both sides of the conflict have allegedly committed numerous war crimes- however the clear advantage in both military and humanitarian discipline lies with the Ukranians. 

Sun Tzu’s fifth question is quite direct, “Which side has the stronger army?” While Putin’s forces retain the advantage in both manpower and equipment, the Ukranians have made novel use of weapon systems and have reduced the impact of Russia’s larger conventional force.

The main strengths of the Russian military, as has been the case since the Second World War, are a large population and heavy artillery- however Putin has struggled to bring both of these factors to bear. The impact of Russia’s large population is muted by the misinformation effect that the war in Ukraine is simply a “special military operation”, and Russian heavy artillery has been slowed by the aforementioned difficult terrain and ineffective leadership.

Ukraine has countered the Russian artillery that has managed to reach the front with tactical nimbleness and an iron chin. The Ukrainian army has deployed light drones, like the Bayraktar, personale sized anti-tank weaponry, like the Javelin, and more recently HIRAS artillery pieces that have greater range and out maneuver their Russian counterparts. It has become a pattern for the United States and other partner nations to supply Ukraine with more advanced weapons at a defensive pacing- but this has not stopped Ukraine’s defenders from using weapons systems in impressive and creative ways.

The Russians retain the advantage of the conventionally stronger military, but Ukraine has outperformed expectations on this measure, perhaps more than any other.

Next, Sun Tzu asks “On which side are the officers and men more highly trained?”

While the Russian army has its advantage in size, the Ukrainian army appears far better trained on both an individual and collective level. It is difficult to get an accurate assessment of how well trained combatants are without being on the ground, but reports have suggested that “mobilized” Russians have been sent into combat with very little training and minimal equipment. 

From an outsider’s perspective little has changed here from the beginning of the conflict- the perception being that the Ukrainian Army was well trained through its ranks, while the training of Russian soldiers would quickly fall off after an initial surge.

Finally, Sun Tzu asks his seventh question “In which army is their greater consistency in both rewards and punishment?” In many respects, this question calls back to the themes posed by the fourth question regarding discipline.

From the Ukrainian perspective rewards and punishments are perfectly clear- the reward for success is national sovereignty and international admiration, while the cost of failure would be seeing meaningful portions of their nation annexed by a bullying neighbor.These rewards and punishments are perfectly consistent in that they are each non-exclusionary. All Ukranians would benefit from continued sovereignty, just as all Ukranians would suffer Russian colonization. 

From the Russian point of view things are less clear, and for many conscripted Russians the “reward” for participating in the conflict is largely avoiding the “punishment” that would come from ignoring their conscription. There are also some, and perhaps many, enlisted Russian fighters who have consumed enough Kremlin propaganda to believe that they are truly “de-nazifying” Ukraine; this would certainly come with the perceived (if unfounded) reward of fulfilling one’s military duty against an “evil” enemy. 

The individual with the most to lose or to gain through continued fighting is Putin himself. Putin likely understands the impact that this conflict will have in shaping his legacy, and his ability to manage those “rewards” and “punishments” without escalating the conflict will be absolutely pivotal in the coming weeks and months. 

When making projections back in March, I suggested that “ the Ukrainians have three clear advantages- a “sovereign imbued with moral law”, “the advantages of heaven and earth”, and “greater consistency in both rewards and punishments”. (While) Putin’s invading force has one clear advantage- its superior size.“ The remaining three matters – good generalship, discipline, and training were each considered toss-ups.

So far, it appears that the conflict has largely played out in accordance with Sun Tzu’s calculations with Ukraine’s outperformance in the remaining three categories leading to their relative military successes. Much of the conflict is yet to unfold, but the Ukrainian side has comfortably succeeded in avoiding the complete annexation of Ukraine by the Russian military.

The Spanish American philosopher, George Santayana observed that, “Those who cannot remember the past are destined to repeat it.” Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”  And, Winston Churchill paraphrased Santayana in a 1948 speech to the House of Commons when he said,”Those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it.”  Perhaps we should consider ourselves fortunate that Vladmir Putin appears to have forgotten to read his copy of Sun Tzu’s classic work while determining his war effort. If Putin had done his essential reading, however, he might have remembered one of Sun Tzu’s most important lessons- simply knowing when it is best not to fight.

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Peter Scaturro is the Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association.

The Documentary Film 752 Is Not A Number (2022) Chronicles Canadian dentist Hamed Esmaeilion’s quest for justice in the aftermath of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, shot down in 2020 by the Iranian military.

It has become very difficult to find reliable information on topics often essentially important in making life decisions. Many years ago there was a push to convert Opinion Editorials into the realm of mainstream news articles. This was done intentionally in order to raise interest in News as a form of media that would grab the attention of the public. The next wave of transformation for journalism came in the form of advertising that would look like an article, but was created to push a specific product or service. Distinguishing what is actual useful information may require a fair bit of knowledge and research, as much of the information found in 2022 has been corrupted by opinion and ads.

As a basis for determining which journalists and news organisation were reliable, it might be useful to read stories on issues where you have personal, in-depth experience. If a media organisation is misrepresenting something you know to be true, they are likely not a reliable source on other pieces of information. This occurred in my own community when the police brutalised someone we know personally, and it was very evident which reporters were seeking the truth, and which were representing other interest groups in folding the narrative away from justice and the rights of the victim under the national Constitution.

A strategy that has developed in the last few years has been the ignore some topics and stories altogether, and only mentioning them when necessary with opinion shading much of the topic. The recent protests in Iran demonstrates how this has been applied, and unfortunately it is often applied against protesters from Iran and against those seeking justice in the region as a whole. In 2009, a young Iranian protester by the name of Neda was assassinated and died on camera after being shot by security forces. The 2009 protests were massive in scale, but the end result after a few short weeks was silence from international media while those promoting human rights in Iran were silently arrested at night and disappeared. Western governments did little to mention what was occurring, only pushing negotiations with the regime.

In 2020, flight 752 was shot down by two TOR-M1 missiles after taking off from Teheran’s international airport. This brutal murder of mostly Canadian and International passengers and crew never received the level of justice owed to the victims from Canada despite Canada being their representative under International Law. Canada told the victim’s families they needed to seek justice from the prosecutors in Ukraine while the world rapidly moved on from this human rights atrocity, leaving the grieving families with no justice and no direction on how to get justice from their own Government. Even after a court in Ontario, Canada set a decision confirming that the missiles were shot at the plane intentionally by the regime, Canada did little to help the victims. When Ukraine was invaded by Russia and seeking justice through Ukraine became exceedingly difficult, Canada did not advise the victim’s families how to proceed.

In the last few days where Iranians have been protesting, little attention beyond simple Tweets have been paid to the families of Flight 752 and the Iranian community by the Canadian Government. Despite promising to label the IRGC a terror group and blocking IRGC families from coming to Canada to their benefit, a recent vote to label the group currently killing young women and men in Iran a terror group was shut down by the same Government. It is likely the case that the silence from 2009 will become the norm again in 2022, and more negotiations will commence promptly.

Information on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is very available, but information from either side is focused on promoting their own narrative of the conflict. This does not mean that most of the information is false or misleading, but it does require a certain level of between-the-lines reading and knowledge of the source of information being presented. In order to interpret success or losses on the battlefield, it is useful to find sources of information that attempt to quantify losses so a conclusion or hypothesis can be made from as much raw data as possible on the conflict itself. Even through sources may seem biased, you can often see images that reveal more information than the text being spoken while viewing the source in media. It must be noted that media sources are part of the conflict as well, as tactics used by organisations like Radio Free Europe were very effectively used against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and are a detailed source of information still in 2022. This information war might be more advanced as it is actively putting out information in order to damage the other side, whereas general media is passively adjusting information of the message to benefit a small group of interested people. Unfortunately, both strategies are now being used in order to deny rights from those who are being persecuted by a system that will extinguish them for wanting basic justice.

It was recently reported that a mass grave was uncovered in Edilli in the Khojavand district, which was controlled by Armenia in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions but became part of Azerbaijan after the Second Karabakh War.   According to various reports, 12 skeletons were found with their hands and feet bound, although 25 bodies were uncovered to date.  

Fuad Muradov, Chairman of the State Committee for Work with the Diaspora, stated on Twitter following this shocking discovery: “The requirements of Article 17 of the Geneva Convention dated August 12,1949 were grossly violated! In1993, 25 captured servicemen of the Azerbaijan Army, were brutally killed and mass buried in the territory of #Edilli village of #Khojavand district.”

Bullet holes found in the skulls indicated that they may have been executed by shooting.  Various media outlets have reported that almost 4,000 Azerbaijani citizens still remain missing, with the Armenians refusing to provide the locations of the mass graves to date.

Hikmat Hajiyev, Assistant of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, stated afterwards on Twitter: “ Edilli was used as concentration camp for Azerbaijani hostages by Armenia.”  Speaking to the Turkish media, Namiq Efendiyev, an official from Azerbaijan’s State Commission for Prisoners of War, Hostages and Missing Persons, said that excavations have been ongoing in the region since February in an effort to find citizens who disappeared during the First Karabakh War which ended in 1994.

In a statement issued by the Azerbaijani Diaspora organizations, it was stated: “We stress that the discovery of such graves openly exposes the Armenian Armed Forces’ war crimes rooted in ethnic hatred, which, in gross violation of international law, international humanitarian law, including the 1949 Geneva Convention for the Protection of War Victims, are accompanied with torture and inhumane acts against Azerbaijani civilians, military personnel, especially the wounded and dead, demonstrates their inhumane behavior and genocide policy. A striking example of this is the numerous videos confirming the multiple facts of brutal killings of Azerbaijani POWs by the Armenian military during the First and Second Karabakh wars with close-range shots to the head and heart area, robbery and dismemberment of soldiers’ bodies, torture and humiliation through acts incompatible with humanity.”  

“We regret to state that along with baseless territorial claims against Azerbaijan, pursuing a policy of extreme hatred on racial, ethnic, religious grounds, instead of taking practical steps to stop the war crimes against our country and bring the perpetrators to justice for the past crimes, Armenia impedes security and the peace process in the region by instigating provocations that lead to confrontations between the two nations,” the statement added.  

According to the statement, “One must also not forget the important fact that the Armenian Armed Forces mined the territory of Azerbaijan, which they kept under occupation for 30 years, and that during the Second Karabakh War, they launched missile attacks on the Azerbaijani cities of Ganja, Barda, Mingachevir, Goranboy and Tartar, located dozens of kilometers from the front line, killing more than 100 civilians. However, in defiance of the trilateral statements signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Russian Federation and the agreements reached in Brussels brokered by President of the European Council Charles Michel, official Yerevan has not yet shared with Azerbaijan the landmine maps and information about the fate of up to 4,000 Azerbaijanis who went missing during the First Karabakh War.”

The statement concluded: “Azerbaijanis of the world strongly assert that the international community must react adequately to these war crimes and bring the perpetrators to justice in order to prevent Armenia from committing similar criminal acts in the future. We demand that Armenia’s war crimes be stopped and call for urgent legal action to bring to justice those responsible for the crimes against peace.”

Ayoob Kara, who served as Israel’s Communication, Satellite and Cyber Minister under Netanyahu, condemned Armenia for slaughtering Azerbaijanis en masse in Edilli and to date refusing to hand over the location of the remaining mass grave locations: “The time has come for Armenia to make peace with Azerbaijan for the sake of regional security.   The first step towards making peace is to take the humanitarian gesture of handing over the location of the mass graves and to hand over all of the landmine maps.   Once that happens, both peoples can look forward to a brighter future.”