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Theresa May, the woman overseeing the biggest shift in British foreign policy in half a century, was overshadowed by a small region of Belgium at the European Council on Thursday.
Read moreAs you know we had a long agenda tonight. Let me start with migration.
Irregular flows on the Central Mediterranean route, that is from Africa to Italy, remain far too high and actually haven't changed for the last two years. That is why we discussed how to enhance our cooperation with Africa. The High Representative presented her diplomatic efforts with five priority countries, namely Senegal, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Ethiopia. The goal is to prevent illegal migration to Italy and to the rest of Europe, and to ensure effective returns of irregular migrants. The High Representative was given our support and will assess progress in December.
When it comes to the Eastern Mediterranean route, the situation has improved, with a 98% drop in arrivals since last year. That is why leaders could discuss getting back to Schengen. We all agreed that the goal is to lift temporary border controls over time, which will be accompanied by the reinforcement of the external borders. Leaders also discussed the question of solidarity among Member States during this crisis. We will consider concrete proposals in December, but the important thing today was to agree that there would be no solidarity a la carte. We will be working on effective solidarity instead.
This evening we had a broad discussion about Russia. Leaders emphasised all sorts of Russian activities, from airspace violations, disinformation campaigns, cyber attacks, interference into the political processes in the EU and beyond, hybrid tools in the Balkans, to developments in the MH17 investigation. Given these examples, it is clear that Russia's strategy is to weaken the EU. We have a sober assessment of this reality, and no illusions. Increasing tensions with Russia is not our aim. We are simply reacting to steps taken by Russia. Of course the EU is always ready to engage in dialogue. But we will never compromise our values or principles. That is why leaders agreed to stay the course. And above all to keep the unity of the EU.
I want to make one specific point on the MH17 investigation. Leaders expressed their full support for the Dutch government in the ongoing investigation. All States that are in a position to assist the investigation and prosecution of those responsible, must do so.
Leaders also discussed Syria. They strongly condemned the attacks by the Syrian regime and its allies, notably Russia, on civilians in Aleppo. The EU is calling for an end to the atrocities and an immediate cessation of hostilities. It will consider all available options, if these atrocities continue. We have asked the High Representative to pursue further diplomatic and humanitarian efforts.
Finally, let me say that we were glad to welcome Prime Minister May to her first European Council. Prime Minister May confirmed that the UK will invoke Article 50 before the end of March next year. There will be no negotiations until Article 50 is triggered by the UK so we didn't discuss Brexit tonight. However, the basic principles and rules, namely the Single Market and indivisibility of the four freedoms, will remain our firm stance. Thank you.
Once Britain leaves the European Union, there will be consequences for the EU as a trading power. Britain was, in 2015, the world’s fifth-largest economy and Europe’s second-largest. It was tenth-biggest exporter of merchandise, and second-biggest of commercial services.
The UK continues to be a member of the EU with full rights and responsibilities, including on current trade negotiations. The EU has several deals on the agenda. The negotiations for the comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada were finished in August 2014, and the agreement now needs to be signed and ratified. In addition, the EU is negotiating free trade agreements with Japan, India, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Mexico and Mercosur countries. The most important negotiations, though, relate to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the United States, which would create the largest regional free trade area in the world.
TTIP negotiations, irrespective of the Brexit vote, have been progressing very slowly. There are still fundamental differences of opinion between the EU and the US in many chapters. Several important areas, such as government procurement, services, investment protection, agricultural tariffs and geographic indicators haven’t been agreed. Both sides went into the summer
break with hope of deciding on a framework agreement by the end of the year – while President Obama is still in office. But the window of opportunity is closing fast, even without taking Brexit
into consideration.
Shortly after the British referendum, both the EU Commissioner for Trade, Cecilia Malmström, and United States Trade Representative, Michael Froman, reiterated that the rationale for TTIP remained strong even without the UK. But the situation isn’t so simple. The UK was one of the main supporters of the deal in Europe. Britain’s departure could further delay TTIP, with criticism on the rise in major EU countries like France and Germany. And once the UK triggers Article 50, EU officials in Brussels will be busy negotiating Britain’s withdrawal agreement, and will shift their priorities accordingly.
There are also critical comments coming from the other side of the Atlantic. Despite his earlier commitment to the deal, Michael Froman conceded in July that TTIP needed to be readjusted for
Brexit, as 25% of US goods exports to the EU are destined for Britain. He also stressed that the US would lose a quarter of the public procurement market without the UK – which, he warned,
would affect the US offer on government procurement. This in an area in which the EU has offensive interests and wants to gain wide access to the US. The negotiations will probably drag on in this manner for some time.
Brexit will have fewer consequences for other trade negotiations. Even with 27 countries, the EU is still an attractive trading partner, although India may reconsider its free trade negotiations with the EU – which began in June 2007 – since the UK is its closest trading partner and strongest European ally.
Britain has always been one of the closest partners of the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany in the push for open markets, so its departure from the EU will have consequences for the use of protectionism. In March the UK was leading the opposition to stronger trade defences against Chinese steel, together with Sweden and the Netherlands. It opposed limitations to the “lesser
duty rule”, which would have allowed the EU to impose higher tariffs against subsidised Chinese steel imports. With the UK out, countries supporting a more liberal trading regime will lose out.
The group that is more inclined to protect the market – broadly consisting of France, Italy and other southern countries – will gain more leverage. So the departure of the UK may change the
negotiating dynamics of EU trade policy.
Britain was also one of the leading countries pushing for more open intra-EU trade and competition in the common market. A single market for services was at the top of the British agenda, but
there are still problems in cross-border competition for services, a situation that impedes economic growth and the creation of jobs in Europe. With Britain leaving, the new push for a common services market may also lose momentum.
IMAGE CREDIT: digitalista/Bigstock.com
The post Brexit changes the EU’s trade dynamics: don’t expect progress appeared first on Europe’s World.
As the European Union gears up for its 60th anniversary next March, there’s good news and bad news.
Let’s celebrate the renewed interest in the EU, both at home and abroad. But let’s also be prepared for a long and difficult struggle with those working against Europe.
The surge in interest in Europe is encouraging. Demands for change and new ideas to build a more dynamic, vibrant and relevant EU are not in short supply.
Interesting ideas – some big, some small – came fast and furious at Friends of Europe’s annual State of Europe brainstorm and conference last week.
The voices of those who have thought about, talked about and worked for Europe for many years are valuable. They should be listened to.
But importantly, others across Europe are beginning to speak up too. They include young people, women and minority groups whose engagement in EU affairs has been minimal. Business leaders, trade unionists, civil society representatives, academics and journalists are making their voices heard. They should be encouraged to say and do more.
Ironically, the shock of Brexit has enlivened the conversation. The Brexiteers may have damaged Britain’s economy (and much more) but they have, unintentionally, also sparked heightened awareness of and popular interest in the EU.
“Those who believe in the EU will have to take their arguments to the people, not wait for people to fill the conference halls”
Such renewed curiosity is an opportunity to start a new conversation about Europe. It should be one which looks at the EU’s past, present and future. It must look at the achievements but also at the failures and weaknesses of the Union.
The confrontation between different visions of Europe is already part of daily life. This contest was evident in the run-up to the 23 June referendum in Britain and will be an essential part of the negotiations on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.
There are Euro-enthusiasts and Euro-doubters in national capitals and parliaments, and in all EU institutions.
And then there are the populists, both in and out of government, who are not just against the EU but also fighting actively to undermine liberal democratic values. In uneasy and uncertain times, their message of intolerance, xenophobia and “Little Europe” is already attracting voters.
With elections scheduled in France, Germany and the Netherlands next year, the fight for the hearts and minds of Europeans is going to get even fiercer.
France’s National Front, the Dutch Party for Freedom and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland – like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and his friends in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – have no scruples about publicising their dark vision of Fortress Europe. Their voices will get louder.
But those who believe in an open and compassionate Europe should be equally passionate about voicing their beliefs. Contrary to what the populists want us to believe, a majority of Europeans do not share their nightmare version. They also need to be seen and heard.
“Today, Europe is too serious and too important to be left to politicians”
In a new world where truth and facts appear to matter less than lies, perceptions and fiction, the confrontation between the two visions of Europe is going to be dirty and ruthless.
The naysayers’ simplistic anti-EU diatribes must be countered by equally simple but clever slogans.
Those in favour of Europe should be proud of what has worked, and what makes the EU relevant and important – for example, contrary to conventional wisdom, the EU “peace project” still makes sense in a world where violence and war still rage just a few kilometres from Europe’s borders.
But enthusiasts must also be frank enough to say what has not worked.
Gentle speeches in comfortable settings just won’t do the trick. Those who believe in the EU will have to take their arguments to the people, not wait for people to fill the conference halls.
Those who favour Europe must be as charismatic, eloquent and single-minded as those who oppose it.
Next March’s anniversary of the EU should trigger a discussion on repairing and renewing the EU, but must also be a moment for reflection on what it means to be European in a complex and challenging world.
As former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd told the Friends of Europe conference, Europeans must ‘buck up and not talk yourselves into a funk’.
More than ever, Europe is a vibrant mix of people, cultures and religions. The EU is an important part of peoples’ lives, often taken for granted, often criticised and much too often under-estimated and under-sold by self-seeking politicians.
French statesman Georges Clemenceau famously said that ‘War is too important to be left to the generals’. Today, Europe is too serious and too important to be left to politicians.
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The post The curious contours of a new European conversation appeared first on Europe’s World.
Anyone in hope of elucidation on Brexit this week will have been a bit disappointed, even by recent standards.
With submissions to the High Court providing no killer arguments either side – and both sides firmly stating that any loss will be challenged up to the Supreme Court and an immigration debate that has sunk to the level of whether someone looks like a child or not, there has not been much advance in our understanding of what might happen, or how.
To underline the point, a discussion this morning at Chatham House on public opinion pointed to further issues.
Put briefly, the British public doesn’t really know what it – collectively – wants from Brexit, except that it wants something substantially different from what currently exists in the UK-EU relationship.
Immigration is important, but less so when placed against assorted trade-offs, and immigration control might be just part of a bigger competence issue about the ability of a government to make decisions for itself. And all of it might collapse or change radically when confronted with some concrete proposition.
This matters for a variety of reasons. Most obviously, if people were voting to take back control, then that becomes very difficult if there’s no consensus about what that control might be used for. It also complicates matters for a government that is now committed to triggering Article 50, but with no fixed agenda of objectives. And in the end it will mean that a sizeable chunk of the population is going to end up disaffected by how things have turned out, to the detriment of the democratic system as a whole.
But let’s step back, before we end up catastrophizing some more. Politics is always a contingent and conditional process, a series of best guesses about the present and the future. Yes, the scale of the contingency is greater on this occasion, but the principles remain the same. So let’s try to sketch out a muddling-through path for Theresa May.
The starting point is probably the inchoate nature of public opinion. If we assume that people will follow May’s lead, because she seems to know what she’s doing and she has the confidence of her government, then the priority then becomes keeping that confidence. Thus, any Article 50 deal will need to keep backbenchers onside, rather than any particular voter demographic.
Following on from this, we might assume that the public’s attention is limited and will be swayed – in part, at least – by broader concerns over whether one’s job is secure, or the volume of immigration is falling (which it might, given the fragile state of the economy). It’s not such a stretch to suggest that the government might take the view that as long as they look like they are on the Brexit case, people will give them a broad pass.
Based on these assumptions, two paths offer themselves.
The first is the semi-permanent transition. Here, the UK keeps its Brexit wishlist short, when making its notification, focusing on a stronger brake on free movement. The EU27 then take that as a lead and offer a simple deal under Article 50, with the bare minimum of elements. This includes budgeting, staff pensions for UK nationals in the institutions and re-location of EU agencies out of London, as well as a mechanism to set in train a new negotiation for the relationship. In short, the UK becomes a member in all but name, losing representation and voting rights, but with a clear process from moving to a new relationship.
Because that new negotiation will be very big and complex, it will also be slow, with the capacity to last at least a decade. The government would defend itself by saying it had secured formal exit and a limit of immigration and was working now on getting the best deal for the country, and would then largely hope that this would bleed the eurosceptics’ blood. In time, attention would drift and a solution favourable to the UK and EU27 would emerge in its own time, away from the heat of recent years.
The problems are obvious: flashpoints could occur at any stage, and carrying the process out over more than one Parliament would risk some other government taking it somewhere unexpected (or unwanted). In particular, the meagre majority that the Conservatives currently enjoy make it easy to force matters on the Cabinet, which itself is split in various exciting ways.
Also problematic would be that limiting the size of the Article 50 deal to a bare minimum also limits the UK’s leverage, since it pushes the new relationship into a period when it is formally a third state, rather than a member state.
Which leads nicely to the second option, namely the Article 50 splurge. Here, the government puts everything into its Article 50 requests and tries to do it all in one go. This cuts down the transitional problems, maximises what influence the UK has over matters and cuts the backbench grumbles to a minimum.
It also makes any discussion about extension of Article 50 more viable, especially if there is seen to be good progress in resolving issues. Path-dependency suggests that the EU27 will not want to throw away two years of negotiation unless it looks fatally flawed, especially if the rest of the political agenda continues to demand their time. It cuts out the need for transitional arrangements, because the UK would remain a member state until its conclusion.
Which is the obvious flaw in this.
To return to the start of this, the big question is going to be what can be sold by May to her party and (then) to the public. At the moment, the betting would have to be on the former being more of a problem than the latter. As Daniel Korski’s very frank piece today underlines, not having a strategy and a vision can come at a very high price.
The post The Great British Muddle Through appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
EU Heads of State or Government meet on 20 October 2016 in Brussels to take stock of the latest developments regarding the EU's migration policy. EU leaders are also discussing relations with Russia and the situation in Syria.